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Results for “Journal of Water and Climate Change”

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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2024

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

California↗
USGS2014

Trends in precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration for rivers draining to the Gulf of Maine in the United States

Climate warming is projected to result in increases in total annual precipitation in northeastern North America. The response of runoff to increases in precipitation is likely to be more complex because increasing evapotranspiration (ET) could counteract increasing precipitation. This study was conducted to examine these competing trends in the historical record for 22 rivers having >70 yr of runoff data. Annual (water year) average precipitation increased in all basins, with increases ranging from 0.9 to 3.12 mm yr −1 . Runoff increased in all basins with increases ranging from 0.67 to 2.58 mm yr −1 . The ET was calculated by using a water balance approach in which changes in terrestrial water storage were considered negligible. ET increased in 16 basins and decreased in 6 basins. Temporal trends in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and ET were also calculated for each basin over their respective periods of record for runoff and for the consistent period (1927–2011) for the area-weighted average of the nine largest non-nested basins. From 1927 through 2011, precipitation and runoff increased at average rates of 1.6 and 1.7 mm yr −1 , respectively, and ET increased slightly at a rate of 0.18 mm yr −1 . For the more recent period (1970–2011), there was a positive trend in ET of 1.9 mm yr −1 . The lack of a more consistent increase in ET, compared with the increases in precipitation and runoff, for the full periods of record, was unexpected, but may be explained by various factors including decreasing wind speed, increasing cloudiness, decreasing vapor pressure deficit, and patterns of forest growth.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2018

Necropsy-based wild fish health assessment

Anthropogenic influences from increased nutrients and chemical contaminants, to habitat alterations and climate change, can have significant effects on fish populations. Adverse effects monitoring, utilizing biomarkers from the organismal to the molecular level, can be used to assess the cumulative effects on fishes and other organisms. Fish health has been used worldwide as an indicator of aquatic ecosystem health. The necropsy-based fish health assessment provides data on visible abnormalities and lesions, parasites, condition and organosomatic indices. These can be compared by site, season and sex, as well as temporally, to document change over time. Severity ratings can be assigned to various observations to calculate a fish health index for more quantitative assessment. A drawback of the necropsy-based assessment is that it is based on visual observations and condition factors, which are not as sensitive as tissue and subcellular biomarkers for sublethal effects. Additionally, it is rarely possible to identify causes or risk factors associated with observed abnormalities. So, for instance a raised lesion or "tumor" on the fins, lips or body surface may be a neoplasm. However, it could also be a response to a parasite, chronic inflammation or hyperplasia of normal cells in response to an irritant. Conversely, neoplasms, certain parasites, other infectious agents and many tissue changes are not visible and so may be underestimated. However, during the necropsy-based assessment, blood (plasma), tissues for histopathology (microscopic pathology), genomics and other molecular analyses, and otoliths for aging can be collected. These downstream analyses, together with geospatial analyses, habitat assessments, water quality and contaminant analyses can all be important in comprehensive ecosystem evaluations.

Journal of Visualized Experiments↗
USGS2016

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors. We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate). Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor). Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact. Synthesis and applications . Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation of freshwater biodiversity in a warming world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2021

Climatic controls on soil carbon accumulation and loss in a dryland ecosystems

Arid and semiarid ecosystems drive year-to-year variability in the strength of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink, yet there is uncertainty about how soil C gains and losses contribute to this variation. To address this knowledge gap, we embedded C-depleted soil mesocosms, containing litter or biocrust C inputs, within an in situ dryland ecosystem warming experiment. Over the course of one year, changes in microbial biomass and total soil organic C pools were monitored alongside hourly measurements of soil CO 2 flux. We also developed a biogeochemical model to explore the mechanisms that gave rise to observed soil C dynamics. Field data and model simulations demonstrated that water exerted much stronger control on soil biogeochemistry than temperature, with precipitation events triggering large CO 2 pulses and transport of litter- and biocrust-derived C into the soil profile. We expected leaching of organic matter would result in steady accumulation of C within the mineral soil over time. Instead, the size of the total organic C pool fluctuated throughout the year, largely in response to microbial growth: increases in the size of microbial biomass were negatively correlated with the quantity of C residing in the top 2 cm, where most biogeochemical changes were observed. Our data and models suggest that microbial responses to precipitation events trigger rapid metabolism of dissolved organic C inputs, which strongly limit accumulation of autotroph-derived C belowground. Accordingly, changes in the magnitude and/or frequency of precipitation events in this dryland ecosystem could have profound impacts on the strength of the soil C sink.

Utah↗
USGS2006

Multiphase, multicomponent parameter estimation for liquid and vapor fluxes in deep arid systems using hydrologic data and natural environmental tracers

Multiphase, multicomponent numerical models of long-term unsaturated-zone liquid and vapor movement were created for a thick alluvial basin at the Nevada Test Site to predict present-day liquid and vapor fluxes. The numerical models are based on recently developed conceptual models of unsaturated-zone moisture movement in thick alluvium that explain present-day water potential and tracer profiles in terms of major climate and vegetation transitions that have occurred during the past 10 000 yr or more. The numerical models were calibrated using borehole hydrologic and environmental tracer data available from a low-level radioactive waste management site located in a former nuclear weapons testing area. The environmental tracer data used in the model calibration includes tracers that migrate in both the liquid and vapor phases (δD, δ 18 O) and tracers that migrate solely as dissolved solutes (Cl), thus enabling the estimation of some gas-phase as well as liquid-phase transport parameters. Parameter uncertainties and correlations identified during model calibration were used to generate parameter combinations for a set of Monte Carlo simulations to more fully characterize the uncertainty in liquid and vapor fluxes. The calculated background liquid and vapor fluxes decrease as the estimated time since the transition to the present-day arid climate increases. However, on the whole, the estimated fluxes display relatively little variability because correlations among parameters tend to create parameter sets for which changes in some parameters offset the effects of others in the set. Independent estimates on the timing since the climate transition established from packrat midden data were essential for constraining the model calibration results. The study demonstrates the utility of environmental tracer data in developing numerical models of liquid- and gas-phase moisture movement and the importance of considering parameter correlations when using Monte Carlo analysis to characterize the uncertainty in moisture fluxes.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS2004

Potential health impacts of burning coal beds and waste banks

Uncontrolled release of pollutants from burning coal beds and waste banks presents potential environmental and human health hazards. On a global scale, the emissions of large volumes of greenhouse gases from burning coal beds may contribute to climate change that alters ecosystems and patterns of disease occurrence. On regional and local scales, the emissions from burning coal beds and waste banks of acidic gases, particulates, organic compounds, and trace elements can contribute to a range of respiratory and other human health problems. Although there are few published reports of health problems caused by these emissions, the potential for problems can be significant. In India, large numbers of people have been displaced from their homes because of health problems caused by emissions from burning coal beds. Volatile elements such as arsenic, fluorine, mercury, and selenium are commonly enriched in coal deposits. Burning coal beds can volatilize these elements, which then can be inhaled, or adsorbed on crops and foods, taken up by livestock or bioaccumulated in birds and fish. Some of these elements can condense on dust particles that can be inhaled or ingested. In addition, selenium, arsenic, lead, tin, bismuth, fluorine, and other elements condense where the hot gaseous emissions come in contact with ambient air, forming mats of concentrated efflorescent minerals on the surface of the ground. These mats can be leached by rainwater and washed into local water bodies providing other potential routes of exposure. Although there are little data linking burning coal beds and waste banks to known health problems, a possibly analogous situation exists in rural China where mineralized coal burned in a residential environment has caused widespread and severe health problems such as fluorosis and arseniasis. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2012

Analysis of ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar data of frozen lakes in northern Montana and implications for climate studies

Lakes that freeze each winter are good indicators of regional climate change if key parameters, such as freeze-up and breakup date and maximum ice thickness, are measured over a decade-scale time frame. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data have proven to be especially useful for measurement of climatologically significant parameters characteristic of frozen lakes. In this paper, five lakes in Glacier National Park, Montana, have been studied both in the field and using Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 SAR data during the 1992-1993 winter. The lakes are characterized by clear ice, sometimes with tubular or rounded bubbles, and often with a layer of snow ice on top of the clear ice. They are also often snow covered. Freeze-up is detected quite easily using ERS 1 SAR data as soon as a thin layer of ice forms. The effect of snow ice on the backscatter is thought to be significant but is, as yet, undetermined. On the five lakes studied, relative backscatter was found to increase with ice thickness until a maximum was reached in February. Breakup, an often ill-defined occurrence, is difficult to detect because surface water causes the SAR signal to be absorbed, thus masking the ice below. Comparison of the bubble structure of thaw lakes in northern Alaska with lakes in northern Montana has shown that the ice structure is quite different, and this difference may contribute to differential SAR signature evolution in the lakes of the two areas.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2013

Measuring environmental change in forest ecosystems by repeated soil sampling: a North American perspective

Environmental change is monitored in North America through repeated measurements of weather, stream and river flow, air and water quality, and most recently, soil properties. Some skepticism remains, however, about whether repeated soil sampling can effectively distinguish between temporal and spatial variability, and efforts to document soil change in forest ecosystems through repeated measurements are largely nascent and uncoordinated. In eastern North America, repeated soil sampling has begun to provide valuable information on environmental problems such as air pollution. This review synthesizes the current state of the science to further the development and use of soil resampling as an integral method for recording and understanding environmental change in forested settings. The origins of soil resampling reach back to the 19th century in England and Russia. The concepts and methodologies involved in forest soil resampling are reviewed and evaluated through a discussion of how temporal and spatial variability can be addressed with a variety of sampling approaches. Key resampling studies demonstrate the type of results that can be obtained through differing approaches. Ongoing, large-scale issues such as recovery from acidification, long-term N deposition, C sequestration, effects of climate change, impacts from invasive species, and the increasing intensification of soil management all warrant the use of soil resampling as an essential tool for environmental monitoring and assessment. Furthermore, with better awareness of the value of soil resampling, studies can be designed with a long-term perspective so that information can be efficiently obtained well into the future to address problems that have not yet surfaced.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2016

Prey size and availability limits maximum size of rainbow trout in a large tailwater: insights from a drift-foraging bioenergetics model

The cold and clear water conditions present below many large dams create ideal conditions for the development of economically important salmonid fisheries. Many of these tailwater fisheries have experienced declines in the abundance and condition of large trout species, yet the causes of these declines remain uncertain. Here, we develop, assess, and apply a drift-foraging bioenergetics model to identify the factors limiting rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) growth in a large tailwater. We explored the relative importance of temperature, prey quantity, and prey size by constructing scenarios where these variables, both singly and in combination, were altered. Predicted growth matched empirical mass-at-age estimates, particularly for younger ages, demonstrating that the model accurately describes how current temperature and prey conditions interact to determine rainbow trout growth. Modeling scenarios that artificially inflated prey size and abundance demonstrate that rainbow trout growth is limited by the scarcity of large prey items and overall prey availability. For example, shifting 10% of the prey biomass to the 13 mm (large) length class, without increasing overall prey biomass, increased lifetime maximum mass of rainbow trout by 88%. Additionally, warmer temperatures resulted in lower predicted growth at current and lower levels of prey availability; however, growth was similar across all temperatures at higher levels of prey availability. Climate change will likely alter flow and temperature regimes in large rivers with corresponding changes to invertebrate prey resources used by fish. Broader application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to build a mechanistic understanding of how changes to habitat conditions and prey resources affect growth of salmonids will benefit management of tailwater fisheries.

Arizona↗
USGS2019

Submarine permafrost map in the arctic modelled using 1D transient heat flux (SuPerMAP)

Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2022

Water-level fluctuations and water temperature effects on young-of-year Largemouth Bass in a southwest irrigation reservoir

The effects of a warming climate will alter the hydrological cycles of arid southwestern U.S. reservoirs which primarily support agricultural needs, provide flood control, and generate hydroelectric power while secondarily supporting fish communities and sport fishing opportunities. The success of littoral spawning fishes depends on the timing and variability of water levels. The onset of drought between 2017 and 2018 provided an opportunity to evaluate the timing of hatch dates and relative abundance of young-of-year Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides across two water years of varying water temperatures and water levels in a southwestern U.S. reservoir. A retrospective analysis of otoliths in young-of-year Largemouth Bass revealed similar hatch dates in 2017 (14 April–29 May) and 2018 (13 April–28 May) despite differences in water temperature and water level rate of change. Median water temperature during hatch dates was greater in 2017 (median 19.0°C, range 14.3–24.4°C) than 2018 (17.6°C, range 13.5–21.7°C). Water level rate of change during hatch dates in 2017 was positive (+3.1 to +13.1 cm/d), which reflected reservoir filling. In contrast, water level rate of change during hatch dates in 2018 was negative (−8.5 to −0.6 cm/d), which reflected reservoir receding. Relative abundance of young-of-year fish was greater in 2017 (21.7 fish/h) when the reservoir was filling compared with relative abundance in 2018 (6.8 fish/h) when the reservoir was receding. The median growth rate was greater in 2017 (1.02 mm/d) when the reservoir was filling than in 2018 (0.82 mm/d) when the reservoir was receding. Despite differences in water temperature and contrasting reservoir levels between the two water years, the Largemouth Bass population in a southwest U.S. reservoir exhibited similar hatch dates reported for the species in southeastern and northeastern U.S. reservoirs. While water demand in the 21st century may exceed availability, the opportunity exists to collaborate with water managers to benefit Largemouth Bass populations in southwestern reservoirs.

New Mexico↗
USGS2009

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications . The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2006

Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration, and permafrost warming. Research from the Seward Peninsula and Kenai Peninsula has demonstrated a substantial landscape-level trend in the reduction of surface water and number of closed-basin ponds. We investigated whether this drying trend occurred at nine other regions throughout Alaska. One study region was from the Arctic Coastal Plain where depp permafrost occurs continuously across the landscape. The other eight study regions were from the boreal forest regions where discontinuous permafrost occurs. Mean annual precipitation across the study regions ranged from 100 to over 700 min yr-1. We used remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 to inventory over 10,000 closed-basin ponds from at least three periods from this time span. We found a reduction in the area and number of shallow, closed-basin ponds for all boreal regions. In contrast, the Arctic Coastal Plain region had negligible change in the area of closed-basin ponds. Since the 1950s, surface water area of closed-basin ponds included in this analysis decreased by 31 to 4 percent, and the total number of closed-basin ponds surveyed within each study region decreased from 54 to 5 percent. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration since the 1950s for all study regions. There was no significant trend in annual precipitation during the same period. The regional trend of shrinking ponds may be due to increased drainage as permafrost warms, or increased evapotranspiration during a warmer and extended growing season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2002

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2010

Predictions of turbidity due to enhanced sediment resuspension resulting from sea-level rise on a fringing Coral Reef: Evidence from Molokai, Hawaii

Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ~11 mg/l to ~20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9 to 37. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ~80 relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. ?? 2010 the Coastal Education & Research Foundation (CERF).

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2008

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants. Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall. Synthesis . Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Journal of Ecology↗