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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Solid-phase arsenic speciation in aquifer sediments: A micro-X-ray absorption spectroscopy approach for quantifying trace-level speciation

e of this research is to identify the solid-phase sources and geochemical mechanisms of release of As in aquifers of the Des Moines Lobe glacial advance. The overarching concept is that conditions present at the aquifer-aquitard interfaces promote a suite of geochemical reactions leading to mineral alteration and release of As to groundwater. A microprobe X-ray absorption spectroscopy (lXAS) approach is developed and applied to rotosonic drill core samples to identify the solid-phase speciation of As in aquifer, aquitard, and aquifer-aquitard interface sediments. This approach addresses the low solid-phase As concentrations, as well as the fine-scale physical and chemical heterogeneity of the sediments. The spectroscopy data are analyzed using novel cosine-distance and correlation-distance hierarchical clustering for Fe 1s and As 1s lXAS datasets. The solid-phase Fe and As speciation is then interpreted using sediment and well-water chemical data to propose solid-phase As reservoirs and release mechanisms. The results confirm that in two of the three locations studied, the glacial sediment forming the aquitard is the source of As to the aquifer sediments. The results are consistent with three different As release mechanisms: (1) desorption from Fe (oxyhydr)oxides, (2) reductive dissolution of Fe (oxyhydr)oxides, and (3) oxidative dissolution of Fe sulfides. The findings confirm that glacial sediments at the interface between aquifer and aquitard are geochemically active zones for As. The diversity of As release mechanisms is consistent with the geographic heterogeneity observed in the distribution of elevated-As wells.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2009

Internal tidal currents in the Gaoping (Kaoping) Submarine Canyon

Data from five separate field experiments during 2000-2006 were used to study the internal tidal flow patterns in the Gaoping (formerly spelled Kaoping) Submarine Canyon. The internal tides are large with maximum interface displacements of about 200??m and maximum velocities of over 100cm/s. They are characterized by a first-mode velocity and density structure with zero crossing at about 100??m depth. In the lower layer, the currents increase with increasing depth. The density interface and the along-channel velocity are approximately 90?? out-of-phase, suggesting a predominant standing wave pattern. However, partial reflection is indicated as there is a consistent phase advance between sea level and density interface along the canyon axis. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Marine Systems↗
USGS2006

Uranium distribution in the coastal waters and pore waters of Tampa Bay, Florida

The geochemical reactivity of uranium (238U) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Fe, Mn, Ba, and V was investigated in the water column, pore waters, and across a river/estuarine mixing zone in Tampa Bay, Florida. This large estuary is impacted both by diverse anthropogenic activity and by extensive U-rich phosphatic deposits. Thus, the estuarine behavior of uranium may be examined relative to such known U enrichments and anthropogenic perturbations. Dissolved (< 0.45??m) uranium exhibited both removal and enrichment processes across the Alafia River/estuarine mixing zone relative to conservative mixing. Such non-conservative U behavior may be attributed to: i) physical mixing processes within the river; ii) U carrier phase reactivity; and/or iii) fluid exchange processes across sediment/water interface. In the bay proper, U concentrations were ?????2 to 3 times greater than those reported for other estuarine systems and are likely a result of erosional inputs from the extensive, underlying U-rich phosphatic deposits. Whereas dissolved U concentrations generally did not approach seawater values (13.6??nM) along the Alafia River salinity transect, water column U concentrations exceeded 16??nM in select regions of the bay. Within the hydrogeological framework of the bay, such enriched U may also be derived from advective fluid transport processes across the sediment/water interface, such as submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) or hyporheic exchange within coastal rivers. Pore water profiles of U in Tampa Bay show both a flux into and out of bottom sediments, and average, diffusive U pore water fluxes (Jdiff) ranged from - 82.0 to 116.6??mol d- 1. It is likely that negative U fluxes imply seawater entrainment or infiltration (i.e., submarine groundwater recharge), which may contribute to the removal of water column uranium. For comparison, a bay-wide, Ra-derived submarine groundwater discharge estimate for Tampa Bay (8??L m- 2 d- 1) yielded an average, advective (JSGD) U flux of 112.9??mol d- 1. In Tampa Bay, the estuarine distribution of U indicates a strong natural, geologic control that may also be influenced by enhanced fluid transport processes across the sediment/water interface. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Chemistry↗
USGS2007

On using surface-source downhole-receiver logging to determine seismic slownesses

We present a method to solve for slowness models from surface-source downhole-receiver seismic travel-times. The method estimates the slownesses in a single inversion of the travel-times from all receiver depths and accounts for refractions at layer boundaries. The number and location of layer interfaces in the model can be selected based on lithologic changes or linear trends in the travel-time data. The interfaces based on linear trends in the data can be picked manually or by an automated algorithm. We illustrate the method with example sites for which geologic descriptions of the subsurface materials and independent slowness measurements are available. At each site we present slowness models that result from different interpretations of the data. The examples were carefully selected to address the reliability of interface-selection and the ability of the inversion to identify thin layers, large slowness contrasts, and slowness gradients. Additionally, we compare the models in terms of ground-motion amplification. These plots illustrate the sensitivity of site amplifications to the uncertainties in the slowness model. We show that one-dimensional site amplifications are insensitive to thin layers in the slowness models; although slowness is variable over short ranges of depth, this variability has little affect on ground-motion amplification at frequencies up to 5 Hz.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗
USGS2018

Potential toxicity of dissolved metal mixtures (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) to early life stage white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in the Upper Columbia River, Washington, United States

The Upper Columbia River (UCR) received historical releases of smelter waste resulting in elevated metal concentrations in downstream sediments. Newly hatched white sturgeon hide within the rocky substrate at the sediment–water interface in the UCR for a few weeks before swim-up. Hiding behavior could expose them to metal contaminants, and metal toxicity could contribute to population declines in white sturgeon over the past 50 years. This study evaluates whether there is a link between the toxicity of dissolved metals across the sediment-water interface in the UCR and the survival of early life stage (ELS) white sturgeon. Toxicity of dissolved metal mixtures is evaluated using a combination of previously collected laboratory and field data and recently developed metal mixture toxicity models. The laboratory data consist of individual metal (Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn) toxicity studies with ELS white sturgeon. The field data include the chemical composition of surface and pore water samples that were collected across the sediment–water interface in the UCR. These data are used in three metal accumulation and two response models. All models predict low toxicity in surface water, whereas effects concentrations greater than 20% are predicted for 60–72% of shallow pore water samples. The flux of dissolved metals, particularly Cu, from shallow pore water to surface water likely exposes prime ELS sturgeon habitat to toxic conditions.

Washington↗
USGS2004

Paleogeodetic records of seismic and aseismic subduction from central Sumatran microatolls, Indonesia

We utilize coral microatolls in western Sumatra to document vertical deformation associated with subduction. Microatolls are very sensitive to fluctuations in sea level and thus act as natural tide gauges. They record not only the magnitude of vertical deformation associated with earthquakes (paleoseismic data), but also continuously track the long-term aseismic deformation that occurs during the intervals between earthquakes (paleogeodetic data). This paper focuses on the twentieth century paleogeodetic history of the equatorial region. Our coral paleogeodetic record of the 1935 event reveals a classical example of deformations produced by seismic rupture of a shallow subduction interface. The site closest to the trench rose 90 cm, whereas sites further east sank by as much as 35 cm. Our model reproduces these paleogeodetic data with a 2.3 m slip event on the interface 88 to 125 km from the trench axis. Our coral paleogeodetic data reveal slow submergence during the decades before and after the event in the areas of coseismic emergence. Likewise, interseismic emergence occurred before and after the 1935 event in areas of coseismic submergence. Among the interesting phenomenon we have discovered in the coral record is evidence of a large aseismic slip or "silent even" in 1962, 27 years after the 1935 event. Paleogeodetic deformation rates in the decades before, after, and between the 1935 and 1962 events have varied both temporally and spatially. During the 25 years following the 1935 event, submergence rates were dramatically greater than in prior decades. During the past four decades, however, rates have been lower than in the preceding decades, but are still higher than they were prior to 1935. These paleogeodetic records enable us to model the kinematics of the subduction interface throughout the twentieth century. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Stress interaction between subduction earthquakes and forearc strike-slip faults: Modeling and application to the northern Caribbean plate boundary

Strike-slip faults in the forearc region of a subduction zone often present significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to population centers. We explore the interaction between thrust events on the subduction interface and strike-slip faults within the forearc region using three-dimensional models of static Coulomb stress change. Model results reveal that subduction earthquakes with slip vectors subparallel to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults adjacent to the trench but reduce the stress on faults farther back in the forearc region. In contrast, subduction events with slip vectors perpendicular to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults farther back in the forearc, while reducing the stress adjacent to the trench. A significant contribution to Coulomb stress increase on strike-slip faults in the back region of the forearc comes from "unclamping" of the fault, i.e., reduction in normal stress due to thrust motion on the subduction interface. We argue that although Coulomb stress changes from individual subduction earthquakes are ephemeral, their cumulative effects on the pattern of lithosphere deformation in the forearc region are significant. We use the Coulomb stress models to explain the contrasting deformation pattern between two adjacent segments of the Caribbean subduction zone. Subduction earthquakes with slip vectors nearly perpendicular to the Caribbean trench axis is dominant in the Hispaniola segment, where the strike-slip faults are more than 60 km inland from the trench. In contrast, subduction slip motion is nearly parallel to the Caribbean trench axis along the Puerto Rico segment, where the strike-slip fault is less than 15 km from the trench. This observed jump from a strike-slip fault close to the trench axis in the Puerto Rico segment to the inland faults in Hispaniola is explained by different distributions of Coulomb stress in the forearc region of the two segments, as a result of the change from the nearly trench parallel slip on the Puerto Rico subduction interface to the more perpendicular subduction slip beneath Hispaniola. The observations and modeling suggest that subduction-induced strike-slip seismic hazard to Puerto Rico may be smaller than previously assumed but the hazard to Hispaniola remains high. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2006

Combined time-series resistivity and geochemical tracer techniques to examine submarine groundwater discharge at Dor Beach, Israel

A high-resolution, stationary geophysical and geochemical survey was conducted at Dor Beach, Israel, to examine the shallow coastal hydrogeology and its control on the exchange of submarine groundwater with the shallow Mediterranean Sea. Time-series resistivity profiles using a new 56 electrode (112-m long) marine cable produced detailed profiles of the fresh water/salt water interface and the subtle response of this interface to tidal excursions and other forcing factors. Such information, when ground-truthed with representative pore water salinities and formation resistivity values, can provide unique information of the extent and rates of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). Time-series 222Rn measurements of the adjacent coastal water column complemented these geophysical techniques and were modeled to yield integrated advective flow rates across the sediment/water interface, which at Dor Beach ranged from about 0 to 30 cm day-1 (mean = 7.1 cm d-1), depending on the tidal range. Such results suggest that the underlying hydrogeologic framework at Dor is favorable for substantial SGD. Extrapolating these SGD estimates across a 100-m wide coastal zone implies that the Rn-derived SGD rate would equal ???7.1 m3 d-1 per m of shoreline, and that the source of this discharging groundwater is a complex mixture of fresh groundwater derived from the upland Kurkar deposits, as well as locally recycled seawater. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2009

Thermal conductivity of hydrate-bearing sediments

A thorough understanding of the thermal conductivity of hydrate-bearing sediments is necessary for evaluating phase transformation processes that would accompany energy production from gas hydrate deposits and for estimating regional heat flow based on the observed depth to the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. The coexistence of multiple phases (gas hydrate, liquid and gas pore fill, and solid sediment grains) and their complex spatial arrangement hinder the a priori prediction of the thermal conductivity of hydrate-bearing sediments. Previous studies have been unable to capture the full parameter space covered by variations in grain size, specific surface, degree of saturation, nature of pore filling material, and effective stress for hydrate-bearing samples. Here we report on systematic measurements of the thermal conductivity of air dry, water- and tetrohydrofuran (THF)-saturated, and THF hydrate–saturated sand and clay samples at vertical effective stress of 0.05 to 1 MPa (corresponding to depths as great as 100 m below seafloor). Results reveal that the bulk thermal conductivity of the samples in every case reflects a complex interplay among particle size, effective stress, porosity, and fluid-versus-hydrate filled pore spaces. The thermal conductivity of THF hydrate–bearing soils increases upon hydrate formation although the thermal conductivities of THF solution and THF hydrate are almost the same. Several mechanisms can contribute to this effect including cryogenic suction during hydrate crystal growth and the ensuing porosity reduction in the surrounding sediment, increased mean effective stress due to hydrate formation under zero lateral strain conditions, and decreased interface thermal impedance as grain-liquid interfaces are transformed into grain-hydrate interfaces.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2009

Dielectric properties of lava flows west of Ascraeus Mons, Mars

The SHARAD instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter detects subsurface interfaces beneath lava flow fields northwest of Ascraeus Mons. The interfaces occur in two locations; a northern flow that originates south of Alba Patera, and a southern flow that originates at the rift zone between Ascraeus and Pavonis Montes. The northern flow has permittivity values, estimated from the time delay of echoes from the basal interface, between 6.2 and 17.3, with an average of 12.2. The southern flow has permittivity values of 7.0 to 14.0, with an average of 9.8. The average permittivity values for the northern and southern flows imply densities of 3.7 and 3.4 g cm -3 , respectively. Loss tangent values for both flows range from 0.01 to 0.03. The measured bulk permittivity and loss tangent values are consistent with those of terrestrial and lunar basalts, and represent the first measurement of these properties for dense rock on Mars.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2010

Effect of surficial disturbance on exchange between groundwater and surface water in nearshore margins

Low‐permeability sediments situated at or near the sediment‐water interface can influence seepage in nearshore margins, particularly where wave energy or currents are minimal. Seepage meters were used to quantify flow across the sediment‐water interface at two lakes where flow was from surface water to groundwater. Disturbance of the sediment bed substantially increased seepage through the sandy sediments of both lakes. Seepage increased by factors of 2.6 to 7.7 following bed disturbance at seven of eight measurement locations at Mirror Lake, New Hampshire, where the sediment representing the greatest restriction to flow was situated at the sediment‐water interface. Although the veneer of low‐permeability sediment was very thin and easily disturbed, accumulation on the bed surface was aided by a physical setting that minimized wind‐generated waves and current. At Lake Belle Taine, Minnesota, where pre‐disturbance downward seepage was smaller than at Mirror Lake, but hydraulic gradients were very large, disturbance of a 20 to 30 cm thick medium sand layer resulted in increases in seepage of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude. Exceptionally large seepage rates, some exceeding 25,000 cm/d, were recorded following bed disturbance. Since it is common practice to walk on the bed while installing or making seepage measurements, disruption of natural seepage rates may be a common occurrence in nearshore seepage studies. Disturbance of the bed should be avoided or minimized when utilizing seepage meters in shallow, nearshore settings, particularly where waves or currents are infrequent or minimal.

Minnesota, New Hampshire↗
USGS2010

Introduction to special section on phenomenology, underlying processes, and hazard implications of aseismic slip and nonvolcanic tremor

This paper introduces the special section on the "phenomenology, underlying processes, and hazard implications of aseismic slip and nonvolcanic tremor" by highlighting key results of the studies published in it. Many of the results indicate that seismic and aseismic manifestations of slow slip reflect transient shear displacements on the plate interface, with the outstanding exception of northern Cascadia where tremor sources have been located on and above the plate interface (differing models of the plate interface there also need to be reconciled). Slow slip phenomena appear to result from propagating deformation that may develop with persistent gaps and segment boundaries. Results add to evidence that when tectonic deformation is relaxed via slow slip, most relaxation occurs aseismically but with seismic signals providing higher-resolution proxies for the aseismic slip. Instead of two distinct slip modes as suggested previously, lines between "fast" and "slow" slip more appropriately may be described as blurry zones. Results reported also show that slow slip sources do not coincide with a specific temperature or metamorphic reaction. Their associations with zones of high conductivity and low shear to compressional wave velocity ratios corroborate source models involving pore fluid pressure buildup and release. These models and spatial anticorrelations between earthquake and tremor activity also corroborate a linkage between slow slip and frictional properties transitional between steady state and stick-slip. Finally, this special section highlights the benefits of global and multidisciplinary studies, which demonstrate that slow phenomena are not confined to beneath the locked zone but exist in many settings.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2021

The Alaska convergent margin backstop splay fault zone, a potential large tsunami generator between the frontal prism and continental framework

The giant tsunami that swept the Pacific from Alaska to Antarctica in 1946 was generated along one of three Alaska Trench instrumentally recorded aftershock areas following great and giant earthquakes. Aftershock areas were investigated during the past decade with multibeam bathymetry, ocean bottom seismograph wide‐angle seismic, reprocessed legacy, and new seismic reflection images. Summarized and updated here are previous papers and additional data. Tectonic structures collocated with aftershock area boundaries indicate possible lengths of rupture in future great earthquakes. NE aftershock area boundaries relate to subducted lower plate structures whereas the SW zone upper plate retains Beringian structural relicts. The lower to middle slope transition separating a stronger continental framework rock from a weaker accreted prism occurs along splay fault zones previously interpreted as backstops in seismic images. Damage zones along splay faults are generally 1‐km‐wide dipping typically 21°. Splays form slip paths from the plate interface to the seafloor much shorter than the 3–4° dipping plate interface beneath the frontal prism. Associated seafloor vent structures indicate overpressured fluids at depth. Splay fault dip and its rigid hanging wall impart greater seafloor uplift than the accreted prism per unit of slip making them effective tsunami generators. Backstop splay fault zones (BSFZs) run along the entire Alaska Trench. Beneath the frontal prism, active bend faults add rugosity to the plate interface and km high relief is commonly imaged in reprocessed legacy and new seismic data. The 1946 Unimak great (M8.6) earthquake epicenter is located near the BSFZ.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Beyond the wedge: Impact of tidal streams on salinization of groundwater in a coastal aquifer stressed by pumping and sea-level rise

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) is a well-studied phenomenon that threatens the freshwater supplies of coastal communities around the world. The development and advancement of numerical models has led to improved assessment of the risk of salinization. However, these studies often fail to include the impact of surface waters as potential sources of aquifer salinity and how they may impact SWI. Based on field-collected data, we developed a regional, variable-density groundwater model using SEAWAT for east Dover, Delaware. In this location, major users of groundwater from the surficial aquifer are the City of Dover and irrigation for agriculture. Our model includes salinized marshland and tidal streams, along with irrigation and municipal pumping wells. Model scenarios were run for 100 years and included changes in pumping rates and sea-level rise (SLR). We examined how these drivers of SWI affect the extent and location of salinization in the surficial aquifer by evaluating differences in chloride concentration near surface waters and the subsurface freshwater-saltwater interface. We found the presence of the marsh inverts the typical freshwater-saltwater wedge interface and that the edge of the interface did not migrate farther inland. Additionally, we found that tidal streams are the dominant pathways of SWI at our site with salinization from streams being exacerbated by SLR. Our results also show that spatial distribution of pumping affects both the magnitude and extent of salinization, with an increase in concentrated pumping leading to more intensive salinization than a more widely distributed increase of the same total pumping volume.

Delaware↗
USGS2012

Stress origins and earthquake potentials in Cascadia

Focal mechanism solutions for shallow earthquakes throughout the Cascadia plate system indicate that the primary regional stress is northerly compression, even though the Juan de Fuca plate generally is thought to be subducting N50°E. This compressional stress is pervasive throughout the Gorda-Juan de Fuca-Explorer plate system and much of the adjoining section of North American plate. Modeling, using a discrete element code, shows that this stress primarily is due to the Pacific plate being driven into the Gorda block and Juan de Fuca plate (at the Mendocino and Blanco fracture zones). This plate collision causes compression of the offshore plate system northward through the 45°W trending Vancouver Island and leads to transfer of northerly compression into the overriding plate. The northerly compression in the Cascadia plate system has caused large, crustal earthquakes in the regions of Vancouver and northern California and may be capable of causing large earthquakes also in and offshore of Washington and Oregon. Several independent lines of evidence confirm that the Cascadia subduction interface is coupled strongly and that subduction primarily must be accompanied by significant earthquakes, rather than occurring aseismically. For numerous earthquakes within the subducted plate, focal mechanisms indicate extensional stresses that trend downdip. These earthquakes reflect plate extension that is due to sinking of the more deeply subducted plate and to plate motion being resisted at the shallow subduction interface. The slab pull force of the sinking plate also can lead to earthquakes at the shallow subduction interface and the potential exists for M 7.5–8.0 subduction earthquakes to occur at segments of the subduction boundary at Washington and Vancouver and less frequently so at segments of the subduction boundary at Oregon. The in-plate driving forces of the offshore Cascadia plate system do not appear to contribute significantly to regional stresses. Stresses and earthquakes at the Cascadia province primarily result from the action of the Pacific plate on the Gorda-Juan de Fuca-Explorer plate system, a transfer of this action into the overriding North American plate, and the independent sinking and slab pull force of the subducted oceanic lithosphere.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2025

Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses

Seawater intrusion threatens groundwater resources in coastal regions, including southern Baldwin County, Alabama, where the freshwater-saltwater interface dynamics remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study uses combined physics-based and machine-learning models to quantify seawater intrusion caused by natural (storm surges) and anthropogenic (human activities) perturbations. The long short-term memory network and wavelet analysis were used to assess vertical aquifer vulnerabilities, revealing that the shallow part of the Coastal lowlands aquifer system (CL1) in the southern Baldwin County region is more susceptible to sea level rise and groundwater extraction than deeper aquifers. Based on these findings, a cross-sectional numerical model (physics approach) for the CL1 aquifer was developed to evaluate tidal and storm surge effects, using Tropical Storm Claudette (June 2021) as a case study. Results showed that tidal fluctuations had a minimal impact on the saltwater-freshwater interface location, whereas storm surges caused substantial inland movement, with effects lasting for nine months. The steady-state version of the three-dimensional (3D) physical model predicted seawater intrusion across the entire area, and convolutional neural network-based modeling further validated the model results. The 3D physical model was also applied to a smaller area to assess human impact on the saltwater interface due to two groundwater pumping scenarios (± 50% of the baseline pumping rate). Results revealed that a 50% increase in groundwater withdrawals caused seawater to advance ~ 320 m inland, whereas a 50% reduction led to a ~ 270-meter retreat. This study highlights the vulnerability of Alabama’s shallow coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion due to storm surges and human activities, and demonstrates that combining physics-based models with machine learning approaches can improve groundwater predictions, though its accuracy depends on the availability of site-specific data.

Alabama↗
USGS2012

Structure, spectroscopy and dynamics of layered H2O and CO2 ices

Molecular dynamics simulations of structural, spectroscopic and dynamical properties of mixed water–carbon dioxide (H 2 O–CO 2 ) ices are discussed over temperature ranges relevant to atmospheric and astrophysical conditions. The simulations employ multipolar force fields to represent electrostatic interactions which are essential for spectroscopic and dynamical investigations. It is found that at the water/CO 2 interface the water surface acts as a template for the CO 2 component. The rotational reorientation times in both bulk phases agree well with experimental observations. A pronounced temperature effect on the CO 2 reorientation time is observed between 100 K and 200 K. At the interface, water reorientation times are nearly twice as long compared to water in the bulk. The spectroscopy of such ices is rich in the far-infrared region of the spectrum and can be related to translational and rotational modes. Furthermore, spectroscopic signatures mediated across the water/CO 2 interface are found in this frequency range (around 440 cm −1 ). These results will be particularly important for new airborne experiments such as planned for SOFIA.

Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics↗
USGS2020

Crossroads of highly pathogenic H5N1: overlap between wild and domestic birds in the Black Sea-Mediterranean impacts global transmission

Understanding transmission dynamics that link wild and domestic animals is a key element of predicting the emergence of infectious disease, an event that has highest likelihood of occurring wherever human livelihoods depend on agriculture and animal trade. Contact between poultry and wild birds is a key driver of the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a process that allows for host-switching and accelerated reassortment, diversification and spread of virus between otherwise unconnected regions. This study addresses questions relevant to the spillover of HPAI at a transmission hotspot: what is the nature of the wild bird-poultry interface in Egypt and adjacent Black Sea-Mediterranean countries and how has this contributed to outbreaks occurring worldwide? Using a spatio-temporal model of infection risk informed by satellite tracking of waterfowl and viral phylogenetics, this study identified ecological conditions that contribute to spillover in this understudied region. Results indicated that multiple ducks (Northern Shoveler and Northern Pintail) hosted segments that shared ancestry with HPAI H5 from both clade 2.2.1 and clade 2.3.4 supporting the role of Anseriformes in linking viral populations in East Asia and Africa over large-distances. Quantifying the interface between wild ducks and H5N1-infected poultry revealed an increasing interface in late winter peaking in early spring when ducks expanded their range before migration, with key differences in the timing of poultry contact risk between local and long-distance migrants.

Virus Evolution↗