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Toxicological effects assessment for wildlife in the 21st Century: Review of current methods and recommendations for a path forward

Model species (e.g., granivorous gamebirds, waterfowl, passerines, domesticated rodents) have been used for decades in guideline laboratory tests to generate survival, growth and reproductive data for prospective Ecological Risk Assessments (ERAs) for birds and mammals, while officially adopted risk assessment schemes for amphibians and reptiles do not exist. There are recognized shortcomings of current in vivo methods as well as uncertainty around the extent to which species with different life histories (e.g., terrestrial amphibians, reptiles, bats) than these commonly used models are protected by existing ERA frameworks. Approaches other than validating additional animal models for testing are being developed, but incorporation of such new approach methodologies (NAMs) into risk assessment frameworks will require robust validations against in vivo responses. This takes time, and the ability to extrapolate findings from non-animal studies to organism- and population-level effects in terrestrial wildlife remains weak. Failure to adequately anticipate and predict hazards could have economic and potentially even legal consequences for regulators and product registrants. In order to be able to use fewer animals or replace them altogether in the long-term, vertebrate use and whole organism data will be needed to provide data for NAMs validation in the short term. Therefore, it is worth investing resources for potential updates to existing standard test guidelines used in the laboratory as well as addressing the need for clear guidance on conduct of field studies. Herein we review the potential for improving standard in vivo test methods and for advancing the use of field studies in wildlife risk assessment, as these tools will be needed into the foreseeable future.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law. Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice. What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use. Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher. Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

Terrestrial ecological risk analysis via dietary exposure at uranium mine sites in the Grand Canyon watershed (Arizona, USA)

The U.S. Department of the Interior recently included uranium (U) on a list of mineral commodities that are considered critical to economic and national security. The uses of U for commercial and residential energy production, defense applications, medical device technologies, and energy generation for space vehicles and satellites are known, but the environmental impacts of uranium extraction are not always well quantified. We conducted a screening-level ecological risk analysis based on exposure to mining-related elements via diets and incidental soil ingestion for terrestrial biota to provide context to chemical characterization and exposures at breccia pipe U mines in northern Arizona. Relative risks, calculated as hazard quotients (HQs), were generally low for all biological receptor models. Our models screened for risk to omnivores and insectivores (HQs>1) but not herbivores and carnivores. Uranium was not the driver of ecological risk; arsenic, cadmium, copper, and zinc were of concern for biota consuming ground-dwelling invertebrates. Invertebrate species composition should be considered when applying these models to other mining locations or future sampling at the breccia pipe mine sites. Dietary concentration thresholds (DCTs) were also calculated to understand food concentrations that may lead to ecological risk. The DCTs indicated that critical concentrations were not approached in our model scenarios, as evident in the very low HQs for most models. The DCTs may be used by natural resource and land managers as well as mine operators to screen or monitor for potential risk to terrestrial receptors as mine sites are developed and remediated in the future.

Arizona

Leveraging extensive soil, vegetation, fire, and land treatment data to inform restoration across the sagebrush biome

Context Widespread ecological degradation has prompted calls for massive global investments in ecological restoration, yet limited resources necessitate efficient application of restoration efforts. In western North America, altered fire regimes are increasing the scale of restoration needed to preserve the sagebrush ( Artemisia species) biome but prioritizing and implementing effective restoration is complicated by the vast and heterogeneous sagebrush landscape, which includes gradients in climate, disturbance, and species composition. Objectives To develop spatially explicit and context-dependent estimates of treatment efficacy and sagebrush recovery rates. Methods We leveraged a suite of spatio-temporally extensive datasets to evaluate the influence of restoration treatments and environmental conditions on trends in post-disturbance sagebrush cover, with an emphasis on understanding differences between sites recovering naturally and sites receiving restoration treatments. We used estimates from these models to develop spatially explicit projections for sagebrush recovery, conditional on disturbance, restoration practice, and environmental conditions. Results We found seeding Artemisia spp. increased sagebrush cover over time relative to natural recovery, but this relationship depended on spring soil moisture availability and treatment methods. Natural recovery was positively influenced by soil moisture and sagebrush cover and negatively influenced by cumulative burns and annual herbaceous cover, while the influence of perennial herbaceous cover varied with soil moisture. Conclusions Our results provide biome-wide insights and spatially explicit tools that can inform economic cost-effectiveness analyses, restoration prioritization tools, and other scientific endeavors to ensure managers have the tools and information needed to effectively steward the sagebrush biome in a rapidly changing world.

Landscape Ecology

Quantifying uncertainty and tradeoffs in resilience assessments

Several frameworks have been developed to assess the resilience of social-ecological systems, but most require substantial data inputs, time, and technical expertise. Stakeholders and practitioners often lack the resources for such intensive efforts. Furthermore, most end with problem framing and fail to explicitly address trade-offs and uncertainty. To remedy this gap, we developed a rapid survey assessment that compares the relative resilience of social-ecological systems with respect to a number of resilience properties. This approach generates large amounts of information relative to stakeholder inputs. We targeted four stakeholder categories: government (policy, regulation, management), end users (farmers, ranchers, landowners, industry), agency/public science (research, university, extension), and NGOs (environmental, citizen, social justice) in four North American watersheds, to assess social-ecological resilience through surveys. Conceptually, social-ecological systems are comprised of components ranging from strictly human to strictly ecological, but that relate directly or indirectly to one another. They have soft boundaries and several important dimensions or axes that together describe the nature of social-ecological interactions, e.g., variability, diversity, modularity, slow variables, feedbacks, capital, innovation, redundancy, and ecosystem services. There is no absolute measure of resilience, so our design takes advantage of cross-watershed comparisons and therefore focuses on relative resilience. Our approach quantifies and compares the relative resilience across watershed systems and potential trade-offs among different aspects of the social-ecological system, e.g., between social, economic, and ecological contributions. This approach permits explicit assessment of several types of uncertainty (e.g., self-assigned uncertainty for stakeholders; uncertainty across respondents, watersheds, and subsystems), and subjectivity in perceptions of resilience among key actors and decision makers and provides an efficient way to develop the mental models that inform our stakeholders and stakeholder categories.

Ecology and Society

A framework for estimating economic impacts of ecological restoration

Ecological restoration projects are designed to improve natural and cultural resources. Spending on restoration also stimulates economic impacts to the restoration economy through the creation or support of jobs and business activity. This paper presents accessible methods for quantifying the economic impacts supported by restoration spending and is written to be a guide and toolbox for an interdisciplinary audience of restoration practitioners and economists. Measuring the economic impacts of restoration can be challenging due to lacking or limited data. The complex, collaborative, and heterogeneous nature of restoration projects can make it difficult to clearly track costs, contributing to limited availability and inconsistency in restoration cost data. And business classification systems, such as the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), do not include restoration-sectors that consistently describe the patterns of restoration spending. The aims of this paper are to (1) provide restoration practitioners and program managers with a clear understanding of the application of economic impact analyses to restoration, (2) provide a framework for collecting project cost data for economic impact analyses, and (3) provide modeling best practices and an example application of the framework.

Environmental Management

Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa

In this study we implement and evaluate a simple 'hybrid' forecast approach that uses constructed analogs (CA) to improve the National Multi-Model Ensemble's (NMME) March–April–May (MAM) precipitation forecasts over equatorial eastern Africa (hereafter referred to as EA, 2°S to 8°N and 36°E to 46°E). Due to recent declines in MAM rainfall, increases in population, land degradation, and limited technological advances, this region has become a recent epicenter of food insecurity. Timely and skillful precipitation forecasts for EA could help decision makers better manage their limited resources, mitigate socio-economic losses, and potentially save human lives. The 'hybrid approach' described in this study uses the CA method to translate dynamical precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (specifically 30°S to 30°N and 30°E to 270°E) into terrestrial MAM precipitation forecasts over the EA region. In doing so, this approach benefits from the post-1999 teleconnection that exists between precipitation and SSTs over the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) and EA MAM rainfall. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamical forecasts used in this study were drawn from the NMME. We demonstrate that while the MAM precipitation forecasts (initialized in February) skill of the NMME models over the EA region itself is negligible, the ranked probability skill score of hybrid CA forecasts based on Indo-Pacific NMME precipitation and SST forecasts reach up to 0.45.

Environmental Research Letters

Chemical characteristics of ground-water discharge along the south rim of Grand Canyon in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, 2000-2001

Springs flowing from the south rim of Grand Canyon are an important resource of Grand Canyon National Park, offering refuge to endemic and exotic terrestrial wildlife species and maintaining riparian areas. Population growth on the Coconino Plateau has increased the demand for additional development of ground-water resources, and such development could reduce spring discharge and affect the sustainability of riparian areas within the park. In addition, springs are an important source of drinking water for hikers and are culturally and economically important to Native Americans living in the region. Water samples were collected from May 2000 to September 2001 from 20 spring and creek sites that discharge water from the Redwall-Muav Limestone aquifer along the south rim of Grand Canyon. Sample collection sites were described and samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, radioactivity, and selected isotopes, and potential sources of ground-water flow to the springs. Rock samples representing the major stratigraphic units of Grand Canyon were collected near the Bright Angel Fault and analyzed for mineralogy, strontium-87/strontium-86, and carbon-13/carbon-12. The chemical composition of water samples collected from a given spring did not vary appreciably over the course of the study. Although water at each spring had a temporally constant composition, the composition was chemically distinct from that of every other spring sampled, indicating spatial variability in the ground-water composition. Most samples had a calcium magnesium bicarbonate composition; a few had a substantial sulfate component. Concentrations of arsenic, nitrate, selenium, uranium, and gross alpha approached or exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels in water discharging from some springs. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions varied little among samples, and for most sites the isotopic data plot close to the global meteoric water line or below the local meteoric water line. Isotopic enrichment indicates fractionation due to evaporation occurs at some sites. The evaporative process may occur prior to recharge or post-discharge. Flow paths are differentiated between the eastern part of the study area where strontium-87/strontium-86 values for water from springs and creeks are more radiogenic than strontium-87/strontium-86 values for water that discharges from sites farther west. Tritium and carbon isotope analyses indicate that residence time of ground-water discharge from springs and creeks ranges from less than 50 years to about 3,400 years. Water with a residence time of less than 50 years is absent at several sites. Discharge of most springs and creeks is a mixture of younger and older waters.

Arizona

Multi-resource analysis: A proof of concept study of natural resource tradeoffs in the Piceance Basin, Colorado, using the net resources assessment (NetRA) decision support tool

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a multi-resource analysis (MRA) line of products to inform land-use decision makers. Specifically, MRA products will integrate scientific information, include considerations for natural resource interrelations, and quantify the effects of resource management decisions in biophysical, economic, and societal terms. As part of the establishment of the MRA, the USGS, in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has developed the Net Resources Assessment (NetRA) decision support tool. As a proof of concept analysis, the NetRA was applied to the Piceance basin in Colorado in a hypothetical example to illustrate how resource managers could use the NetRA to consider tradeoffs of natural resources among alternative development plans and land cover patterns within a geographic region. The NetRA is a policy-relevant approach to assess the availability of multiple natural resources. It is an analytical toolset that may be used to examine the spatiotemporal relations between development of energy and mineral resources and delivery of biological natural resources. The NetRA operates at multiple map scales and contains a set of integrated, compatible submodels with specific data requirements for natural resource stocks, engineering economics, biophysical, and ecological data for ecosystem services stocks, market prices, regulations, and nonmarket values. The NetRA includes an explicit process to consider the interdependence between development and conservation, which is a crucial consideration in land-management and land-use decisions. The NetRA is used to estimate an expected net resource value (NRV). The NRV is the expected, present value, economic benefit from the extraction of a resource (for example, natural gas) minus the total cost of production, which is the aggregation of the development, production, and social costs. Social costs include private costs plus any external costs. There can be external social benefits associated with natural gas production, such as increased demand for locally produced goods and increased employment in the local area through backward and forward linkages of natural gas production. The NRV is used to compare development outcomes (scenarios) from a range of exploration and development plans for cumulative energy production. The Piceance basin application of the NetRA uses the NRV to assess the tradeoff between continuous natural gas extraction and the effects to the local populations of Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and aquatic species and to consumptive water uses for an area the size and resolution of a USGS energy resource assessment unit. In the proof of concept simulation, the 2.9-square-mile-area of USGS oil and gas assessment unit 50200263 (Piceance basin continuous gas unit of the Mesaverde Total Petroleum System) was gridded into 588 cells. From this area, seven clusters with potential for development and three that cannot be developed were identified; the three clusters that cannot be developed were identified as wilderness study areas, areas of critical environmental concern, and national forests. On the basis of these criteria, there are 118 cells unsuitable for development in the oil and gas assessment unit: 84 are in national forests, 23 are areas of critical environmental concern, and 11 are wilderness study areas. The remaining cells in the oil and gas assessment unit can be developed on both private and public lands. Two scenarios were considered that are distinguished as plan 1 and plan 2. Plan 1 keeps the amount of land disturbance unchanged and limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period, which constrains the amount of the energy resources available for development; the plan requires the usage of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) unsuitability criteria. Plan 2 also limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period but provides a constant volume of energy production by increasing the density of well pads within the cells. The effects of plan 2 to the NRV when there are five wells per pad and five pads per square mile happen mostly in the first 5 years of development, even though the effects on the population of mule deer continue in later years. This outcome is the result of the upfront development and investment costs and the initial effect to the ecosystem services.

Colorado

Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS) policy stipulates that natural coastal processes be maintained to the greatest extent possible and not be impeded so as to conserve landforms, habitats and natural ecosystem resources that reply on the landforms and processes for long-term sustainability of the national park. Storms and associated processes such as waves, tides, currents and relative sea-level change are critical elements for the formation and evolution of these barrier islands, sand dunes, back-barrier sand flats and lagoons and vegetated wetlands. Processes such as wave run-up, overwash and barrier beaching, which occur during elevated storm surge are all necessary processes in enabling the efficient transfer of sediments, nutrients and marine water from the Atlantic Ocean across barriers and into Great South Bay. A large body of scientific data and information published over the past 50 years shows that such transfers of sediment and water from the ocean to the bays are essential for the long-term maintenance of the barrier island and back-bay systems and their biologically diverse habitats an d ecosystems. Current relative sea-level rise (~12 in/century) is chronic and pervasive in driving Long Island coastal change and with the likelihood of accelerating sea level rise in the near future, coastal hazards such as erosion, inundation, and storm surge flooding will increase, with corresponding increased risk to life and property on both Fire Island and on the mainland. In addition, the cumulative effects over the past century and more, both direct and indirect, of human impacts on the Long Island coast have altered the barrier beach and dunes and sediment transport processes. These impacts have likely increased the potential for breaching and increased risk to life and property on the coast and the mainland. Examples of direct impacts are: the stone jetties at Moriches, Shinnecock, and Fire Island tidal inlets and groin field structures at Westhampton that alter littoral processes, armoring and erosion-control stabilization of the headlandds such as the Montauk Point headlands, and deepening of navigation channels by dredging through the tidal inlets and in the bays. Indirect impacts that have a bearing on decisions to deal with breaching are: high-risk development of the barrier islands and low-lying areas of the mainland vulnerable to flooding, and the dredging of nearshore sand shoals for beach nourishment. The NPS strives to employ a coastal management framework for decision making that is based on assessment of the physical and ecological properties of the shoreline as well as human welfare and property. In order to protect developed areas of Fire Island and the mainland from loss of life, flooding, and other economic and physical damage, the NPS will likely need to consider allowing artificial closure of some breaches within the FIIS under certain circumstances. The decision by the NPS to allow breaches to evolve naturally and possibly close or to allow artificially closing breaches is based on four criteria: 1. Volumes of sediment transported landward and exchange of water and nutrients; 2. Elevated water levels and flooding risk to mainland life and property; 3. Engineering processes of artificial closure; and 4. Economic costs and benefits of artificial closure. This report for breach management presents protocols which specify when breach closures within the FIIS might be desirable and necessary, as well as provides recommendations for structural breach closure engineering operations which are indented to minimize negative impacts to the natural wilderness values and cultural resources within the FIIS, particularly the Otis Pike Wilderness Area. The goal of the plan is to strike a balance between protecting natural resources and allowing natural processes to operate and avoiding loss of life and excessive property damage.

New York

Deep-ocean polymetallic nodules and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts in the global ocean: New sources for critical metals

The transition from a global hydrocarbon economy to a green energy economy and the rapidly growing middle class in developing countries are driving the need for considerable new sources of critical materials. Deep-ocean minerals, namely cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts and polymetallic nodules, are two such new resources generating interest. Polymetallic nodules are essentially two-dimensional mineral deposits sitting on abyssal plain sediments at about 3,500–6,000 m water depths. Metals of economic interest enriched in nodules include nickel, copper, manganese, cobalt and molybdenum. Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts are also two-dimensional deposits forming pavements on rock outcrops on seamounts and ridges at water depths of 400–7,000 m. Metals of economic interest for crusts include cobalt, manganese, nickel, molybdenum, tellurium, platinum, vanadium and rare earth elements. A conservative estimate is that 21.1 billion dry tons of polymetallic nodules exist in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone ( CCZ ) manganese nodule field, the largest in area and tonnage of the known global nodule fields. Based on that estimate, tonnages of many critical metals in the CCZ nodules are greater than those found in global terrestrial reserves. About 7.5 billion dry tons of cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts are estimated to occur in the Pacific Ocean Prime Crust Zone, the area with the highest tonnage of critical-metal-rich crust deposits, with many elements contained therein estimated to be greater than those found in global terrestrial reserves. Deep-ocean mining has not yet been carried out in the Exclusive Economic Zone of any nation, nor in the Areas beyond national jurisdiction, although extensive mineral exploration and environmental studies are being conducted and exploitation regulations codified, indicating that mining activities will likely begin in the near future. If deep-ocean mining follows the evolution of offshore production of petroleum, we can expect that about 35–45 per cent of the demand for critical metals will come from deep-ocean mines by 2065.

Book chapter

Recent U.S. Geological Survey Studies in the Tintina Gold Province, Alaska, United States, and Yukon, Canada-Results of a 5-Year Project

This report presents summary papers of work conducted between 2002 and 2007 under a 5-year project effort funded by the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program, formerly entitled 'Tintina Metallogenic Province: Integrated Studies on Geologic Framework, Mineral Resources, and Environmental Signatures.' As the project progressed, the informal title changed from 'Tintina Metallogenic Province' project to 'Tintina Gold Province' project, the latter being more closely aligned with the terminology used by the mineral industry. As Goldfarb and others explain in the first chapter of this report, the Tintina Gold Province is a convenient term used by the mineral exploration community for a 'region of very varied geology, gold deposit types, and resource potential'. The Tintina Gold Province encompasses roughly 150,000 square kilometers, bounded by the Kaltag-Tintina fault system on the north and the Farewell-Denali fault system on the south. It extends westward in a broad arc, some 200 km wide, from northernmost British Columbia, through the Yukon, through southeastern and central Alaska, to southwestern Alaska. The climate is subarctic and, in Alaska, includes major physiographic delineations and ecoregions such as the Yukon-Tanana Upland, Tanana-Kuskokwim Lowlands, Yukon River Lowlands, and the Kuskokwim Mountains. Although the Tintina Gold Province is historically important for some of the very first placer and lode gold discoveries in northern North America, it has recently seen resurgence in mineral exploration, development, and mining activity. This resurgence is due to both new discoveries (for example, Pogo and Donlin Creek) and to the application of modern extraction methods to previously known, but economically restrictive, low-grade, bulk-tonnage gold resources (for example, Fort Knox, Clear Creek, and Scheelite Dome). In addition, the Tintina Gold Province hosts numerous other mineral deposit types, possessing both high and low sulfide content, which are not currently in development.

Scientific Investigations Report

Identifying potential areas for biofuel production and evaluating the environmental effects: a case study of the James River Basin in the Midwestern United States

Biofuels are now an important resource in the United States because of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Both increased corn growth for ethanol production and perennial dedicated energy crop growth for cellulosic feedstocks are potential sources to meet the rising demand for biofuels. However, these measures may cause adverse environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. This study 1) evaluates the long-term impacts of increased frequency of corn in the crop rotation system on water quantity and quality as well as soil fertility in the James River Basin and 2) identifies potential grasslands for cultivating bioenergy crops (e.g. switchgrass), estimating the water quality impacts. We selected the soil and water assessment tool, a physically based multidisciplinary model, as the modeling approach to simulate a series of biofuel production scenarios involving crop rotation and land cover changes. The model simulations with different crop rotation scenarios indicate that decreases in water yield and soil nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentration along with an increase in NO 3 -N load to stream water could justify serious concerns regarding increased corn rotations in this basin. Simulations with land cover change scenarios helped us spatially classify the grasslands in terms of biomass productivity and nitrogen loads, and we further derived the relationship of biomass production targets and the resulting nitrogen loads against switchgrass planting acreages. The suggested economically efficient (planting acreage) and environmentally friendly (water quality) planting locations and acreages can be a valuable guide for cultivating switchgrass in this basin. This information, along with the projected environmental costs (i.e. reduced water yield and increased nitrogen load), can contribute to decision support tools for land managers to seek the sustainability of biofuel development in this region.

Missouri

Evaluating machine learning approaches to identify and predict oil and gas produced water lithium concentrations

Recently, the demand for battery-grade lithium has substantially increased, largely due to electrification of the transportation sector. The search for new lithium sources has turned to produced waters (frequently brines), a large-volume wastewater by-product of oil and gas extraction. Geochemical analysis indicates the presence of varying concentrations of lithium from produced water samples collected across the United States and represented in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Produced Water Geochemical Database, as well as mixtures of Marcellus Shale produced water included in the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s Oil and Gas Well Waste Reports. We first examined whether the geochemical signature of the lithium-bearing produced waters is sufficiently distinct so that machine learning (ML) can be used to correctly classify samples to the formation of origin. The produced water sample data used to assess classification accuracy were from the Marcellus Shale, Utica Shale and Point Pleasant Formation (Utica), and Smackover Formation oil and gas wells. Further, we evaluated the potential for ML to accurately classify Marcellus Shale produced water spatially (i.e., northeast versus southwest Pennsylvania). We then investigated whether ML algorithms applied to a suite of geochemical concentration data (i.e. Ba, Br, Cl, K, Mg, Sr) may be used to predict the lithium concentration of an unknown sample. Finally, we applied an estimated economic lithium grade cutoff of 150 milligrams per liter (mg/l) and assessed the utility of ML to predict whether a produced water sample would fall above or below the grade cutoff based on the suite of geochemical parameters. Four machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT), Extreme Boosting (XGBoost), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) were assessed. This study successfully demonstrates that all four machine learning methods can precisely and accurately estimate lithium concentrations and geologic formation classification. The products of this study contribute to the growing body of knowledge aimed at expanding the lithium resource base within the United States.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi

Understanding contaminants associated with mineral deposits

Interdisciplinary studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have resulted in substantial progress in understanding the processes that control the release of metals and acidic water from inactive mines and mineralized areas, the transport of metals and acidic water to streams, and the fate and effect of metals and acidity on downstream ecosystems. The potential environmental effects associated with abandoned and inactive mines, resulting from the complex interaction of a variety of chemical and physical processes, is an area of study that is important to the USGS Mineral Resources Program. Understanding the processes contributing to the environmental effects of abandoned and inactive mines is also of interest to a wide range of stakeholders, including both those responsible for managing lands with historically mined areas and those responsible for anticipating environmental consequences of future mining operations. The recently completed (2007) USGS project entitled 'Process Studies of Contaminants Associated with Mineral Deposits' focused on abandoned and inactive mines and mineralized areas in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona, where there are thousands of abandoned mines. Results from these studies provide new information that advances our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes causing the mobilization, transport, reaction, and fate of potentially toxic elements (including aluminum, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, and zinc) in mineralized near-surface systems and their effects on aquatic and riparian habitat. These interdisciplinary studies provide the basis for scientific decisionmaking and remedial action by local, State, and Federal agencies charged with minimizing the effects of potentially toxic elements on the environment. Current (2007) USGS research highlights the need to understand (1) the geologic sources of metals and acidity and the geochemical reactions that release them from their sources, (2) the pathways that facilitate transport from those sources, and (3) the processes that control the fate of the elements once released from the sources. Experts in the fields of economic geology, structural geology, mineralogy, geophysics, geochemistry, hydrology, ground-water modeling, microbiology, and toxicology came together for a series of studies that address these relationships on scales ranging from the microscopic to the watershed. This Circular presents results and highlights from the detailed, interdisciplinary studies that include investigations in both mining-affected areas and mineralized but unmined areas. The first section of the Circular describes laboratory and site-scale field investigations that primarily focus on mineralogic and biologic controls on the source and release of metals and acidity from mine-waste rock and hydrothermally altered areas. The second section describes a set of basin- to watershed-scale studies that not only investigate the source and release of metals and acidity but also the transport of these constituents away from the source areas. The third section is a summary of results from postremediation ecosystem monitoring. For more information on these and other project-related studies, please visit the project Web site at http://minerals.cr.usgs.gov/projects/contaminants/index.html. The Web site includes a complete bibliography and detailed descriptions of each interdisciplinary study.

Circular

Ground-water quality and susceptibility of ground water to effects from domestic wastewater disposal in eastern Bernalillo County, central New Mexico, 1990-91

Eastern Bernalillo County is a historically rural, mountainous area east of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Historically, the primary economic activity consisted of subsistence farming and ranching and support of these activities from small communities. During the last 40 to 50 years, however, the area increasingly has become the site of residential developments. Homes in these developments typically are on 1- to 2-acre lots and are serviced by individual wells and septic systems. Between 1970 and 1990, the population of the area increased from about 4,000 to more than 12,000, and housing units increased from about 1,500 to more than 5,000. Results of analysis of water samples collected from 121 wells throughout eastern Bernalillo County in 1990 indicated that (1) total-nitrate concentrations in 10 samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency national primary drinking-water regulation maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen; (2) total-nitrate concentrations may be related to the length of time an area has been undergoing development; and (3) large dissolved-chloride concentrations may result from geologic origins, such as interbedded salt deposits or upward movement of saline ground water along faults and fractures, as well as from domestic wastewater disposal. Ground water throughout eastern Bernalillo County was assessed to be highly susceptible to contamination by overlying domestic wastewater disposal because (1) soils in more than 95 percent of eastern Bernalillo County were determined by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service to have severe limitations for use as septic-system absorption fields and (2) a fractured carbonate geologic terrane, which typically has large secondary permeability and limited sorption capacity, is at the surface or underlying unconsolidated material in 73 percent of the area. Ground-water-level rises following an episodal precipitation event during July 22-27, 1991, were large and rapid, particularly in the fractured carbonate terrane. This response indicates a significant hydraulic connection between the land surface and the water table.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Coordinated river infrastructure decisions improve net social-ecological benefits

We explore the social, ecological, economic, and technical dimensions of sustainable river infrastructure development and the potential benefits of coordinating decisions such as dam removal and stream crossing improvement. Dam removal is common practice for restoring river habitat connectivity and ecosystem health. However, stream crossings such as culverts are often 15 times more abundant than dams and may pose similar ecological impacts. Using multi-objective optimization for a model system of 6100 dams and culverts in Maine, USA, we demonstrate substantial benefit-cost improvements provided by coordinating habitat connectivity decisions. Benefit-cost efficiency improves by two orders of magnitude when coordinating more decisions across wider areas, but this approach may cause inequitable resource distribution. Culvert upgrades improve roadway safety and habitat connectivity, creating cost-effective opportunities for coordinating and cost-sharing projects between conservationists and safety managers. Benefit-cost trends indicate significant overlaps in habitat and safety goals, encouraging flexible stakeholder collaborations and cost-sharing strategies.

Maine

A review of selected inorganic surface water quality-monitoring practices: are we really measuring what we think, and if so, are we doing it right?

Successful environmental/water quality-monitoring programs usually require a balance between analytical capabilities, the collection and preservation of representative samples, and available financial/personnel resources. Due to current economic conditions, monitoring programs are under increasing pressure to do more with less. Hence, a review of current sampling and analytical methodologies, and some of the underlying assumptions that form the bases for these programs seems appropriate, to see if they are achieving their intended objectives within acceptable error limits and/or measurement uncertainty, in a cost-effective manner. That evaluation appears to indicate that several common sampling/processing/analytical procedures (e.g., dip (point) samples/measurements, nitrogen determinations, total recoverable analytical procedures) are generating biased or nonrepresentative data, and that some of the underlying assumptions relative to current programs, such as calendar-based sampling and stationarity are no longer defensible. The extensive use of statistical models as well as surrogates (e.g., turbidity) also needs to be re-examined because the hydrologic interrelationships that support their use tend to be dynamic rather than static. As a result, a number of monitoring programs may need redesigning, some sampling and analytical procedures may need to be updated, and model/surrogate interrelationships may require recalibration.

Environmental Science & Technology