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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Can modeling improve estimation of desert tortoise population densities?

The federally listed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is currently monitored using distance sampling to estimate population densities. Distance sampling, as with many other techniques for estimating population density, assumes that it is possible to quantify the proportion of animals available to be counted in any census. Because desert tortoises spend much of their life in burrows, and the proportion of tortoises in burrows at any time can be extremely variable, this assumption is difficult to meet. This proportion of animals available to be counted is used as a correction factor (g0) in distance sampling and has been estimated from daily censuses of small populations of tortoises (6-12 individuals). These censuses are costly and produce imprecise estimates of g0 due to small sample sizes. We used data on tortoise activity from a large (N = 150) experimental population to model activity as a function of the biophysical attributes of the environment, but these models did not improve the precision of estimates from the focal populations. Thus, to evaluate how much of the variance in tortoise activity is apparently not predictable, we assessed whether activity on any particular day can predict activity on subsequent days with essentially identical environmental conditions. Tortoise activity was only weakly correlated on consecutive days, indicating that behavior was not repeatable or consistent among days with similar physical environments. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Urbanization and nutrient retention in freshwater riparian wetlands

Urbanization can degrade water quality and alter watershed hydrology, with profound effects on the structure and function of both riparian wetlands (RWs) and aquatic ecosystems downstream. We used freshwater RWs in Fairfax County, Virginia, USA, as a model system to examine: (1) the effects of increasing urbanization (indexed by the percentage of impervious surface cover [%ISC] in the surrounding watershed) on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in surface soils and plant tissues, soil P saturation, and soil iron (Fe) chemistry; and (2) relationships between RW soil and plant nutrient chemistries vs. the physical and biotic integrity of adjacent streams. Soil total P and NaOH-extractable P (representing P bound to aluminum [Al] and Fe hydrous oxides) varied significantly but nonlinearly with %ISC (r2 = 0.69 and 0.57, respectively); a similar pattern was found for soil P saturation but not for soil total N. Relationships were best described by second-order polynomial equations. Riparian wetlands appear to receive greater P loads in moderately (8.6-13.3% ISC) than in highly (25.1-29.1% ISC) urbanized watersheds. These observations are consistent with alterations in watershed hydrology that occur with increasing urbanization, directing water and nutrient flows away from natural RWs. Significant increases in total and crystalline soil Fe (r 2 = 0.57 and 0.53, respectively) and decreases in relative soil Fe crystallinity with increasing %ISC suggest the mobilization and deposition of terrestrial sediments in RWs, likely due to construction activities in the surrounding watershed. Increases in RW plant tissue nutrient concentrations and %ISC in the surrounding watershed were negatively correlated with standard indices of the physical and biotic integrity of adjacent streams. In combination, these data suggest that nutrient and sediment inputs associated with urbanization and storm-water management are important variables that affect wetland ecosystem services, such as water quality improvement, in urbanizing landscapes. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Avifaunal responses to fire in southwestern montane forests along a burn severity gradient

The effects of burn severity on avian communities are poorly understood, yet this information is crucial to fire management programs. To quantify avian response patterns along a burn severity gradient, we sampled 49 random plots (2001-2002) at the 17 351-ha Cerro Grande Fire (2000) in New Mexico, USA. Additionally, pre-fire avian surveys (1986-1988, 1990) created a unique opportunity to quantify avifaunal changes in 13 pre-fire transects (resampled in 2002) and to compare two designs for analyzing the effects of unplanned disturbances: after-only analysis and before-after comparisons. Distance analysis was used to calculate densities. We analyzed after-only densities for 21 species using gradient analysis, which detected a broad range of responses to increasing burn severity: (I) large significant declines, (II) weak, but significant declines, (III) no significant density changes, (IV) peak densities in low- or moderate-severity patches, (V) weak, but significant increases, and (VI) large significant increases. Overall, 71% of the species included in the after-only gradient analysis exhibited either positive or neutral density responses to fire effects across all or portions of the severity gradient (responses III-VI). We used pre/post pairs analysis to quantify density changes for 15 species using before-after comparisons; spatiotemporal variation in densities was large and confounded fire effects for most species. Only four species demonstrated significant effects of burn severity, and their densities were all higher in burned compared to unburned forests. Pre- and post-fire community similarity was high except in high-severity areas. Species richness was similar pre- and post-fire across all burn severities. Thus, ecosystem restoration programs based on the assumption that recent severe fires in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests have overriding negative ecological effects are not supported by our study of post-fire avian communities. This study illustrates the importance of quantifying burn severity and controlling confounding sources of spatiotemporal variation in studies of fire effects. After-only gradient analysis can be an efficient tool for quantifying fire effects. This analysis can also augment historical data sets that have small samples sizes coupled with high non-process variation, which limits the power of before-after comparisons. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Factors influencing movement probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in buildings

We investigated movements of female big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) roosting in maternity colonies in buildings in Fort Collins, Colorado (USA), during the summers of 2002, 2003, and 2005. This behavior can be of public health concern where bats that may carry diseases (e.g., rabies) move among buildings occupied by people. We used passive integrated transponders (PIT tags) to mark individual bats and hoop PIT readers at emergence points to passively monitor the use of building roosts by marked adult females on a daily basis during the lactation phase of reproduction. Multi-strata models were used to examine movements among roosts in relation to ambient temperatures and ectoparasite loads. Our results suggest that high ambient temperatures influence movements. Numbers of mites (Steatonyssus occidentalis) did not appear to influence movements of female bats among building roosts. In an urban landscape, periods with unusually hot conditions are accompanied by shifting of bats to different buildings or segments of buildings, and this behavior may increase the potential for contact with people in settings where, in comparison to their more regularly used buildings, the bats may be more likely to be of public concern as nuisances or health risks. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Effects of anthropogenic developments on common Raven nesting biology in the west Mojave Desert

Subsidized predators may affect prey abundance, distribution, and demography. Common Ravens (Corvus corax) are anthropogenically subsidized throughout their range and, in the Mojave Desert, have increased in number dramatically over the last 3-4 decades. Human-provided food resources are thought to be important drivers of raven population growth, but human developments add other features as well, such as nesting platforms. From 1996 to 2000, we examined the nesting ecology of ravens in the Mojave Desert, relative to anthropogenic development. Ravens nested disproportionately near point sources of food and water subsidies (such as towns, landfills, and ponds) but not near roads (sources of road-killed carrion), even though both sources of subsidy enhanced fledging success. Initiation of breeding activity was more likely when a nest from the previous year was present at the start of a breeding season but was not affected by access to food. The relative effect of environmental modifications on fledging success varied from year to year, but the effect of access to humanprovided resources was comparatively consistent, suggesting that humans provide consistently high-quality breeding habitat for ravens. Anthropogenic land cover types in the desert are expected to promote raven population growth and to allow ravens to occupy parts of the desert that otherwise would not support them. Predatory impacts of ravens in the Mojave Desert can therefore be considered indirect effects of anthropogenic development.

California↗
USGS2007

Human influence on California fire regimes

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Satellite telemetry and prey sampling reveal contaminant sources to pacific northwest ospreys

Migratory behavior can be an important factor in determining contaminant exposure in avian populations. Accumulation of organochlorine (OC) pesticides while birds are wintering in tropical regions has been cited often as the reason for high concentrations in migrant populations. To explore this issue, we satellite tracked 16 Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) over the period 1996-2003 from breeding sites in British Columbia, Canada, and integrated the results into a database on 15 Ospreys that were satellite tracked over the period 1995-1999, from breeding locations in Washington and Oregon, USA. Data on wintering sites of 31 Ospreys in Mexico and Central America were used for spatially targeted sampling of prey fish. Concentrations of the main organochlorine contaminant, p,p???-dichloro-diphenyl-dichloroethylene (DDE), in fish composites from Mexico ranged from 0.005 to 0.115 ??g/g wet mass. Significant differences existed among fish families in p,p???-DDE, total dichloro- diphenyltrichloroethane (??DDT), ??chlordanes, and total polychlorinated biphenyls (??PCBs). Catfish (family Ariidae) generally had significantly higher levels of DDT metabolites and other organochlorine contaminants compared to other fish families collected. Differences in prey contaminant levels were detected among the collection sites around coastal Mexico, with fish from Veracruz State generally having higher levels of DDT metabolites, ??chlordanes, ??PCBs, and hexachlorobenzene. Eggs collected from 16 nests throughout the Pacific Northwest (nine from British Columbia, seven from Oregon and Washington) where Ospreys had been satellite tagged, showed marked variation in levels of DDT metabolites (p,p???-DDE; range 0.02-10.14 ??g/g). Wintering site had no significant effect on contaminant concentrations in sample eggs from those specific Ospreys; rather concentrations of p,p???-DDE, were predicted by breeding sites with highest levels in eggs of Ospreys breeding in the lower Columbia River, consistent with published reports of continued high concentrations of DDT and related compounds in that system. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Endangered light-footed clapper rail affects parasite community structure in coastal wetlands

An extinction necessarily affects community members that have obligate relationships with the extinct species. Indirect or cascading effects can lead to even broader changes at the community or ecosystem level. However, it is not clear whether generalist parasites should be affected by the extinction of one of their hosts. We tested the prediction that loss of a host species could affect the structure of a generalist parasite community by investigating the role of endangered Light-footed Clapper Rails ( Rallus longirostris levipes ) in structuring trematode communities in four tidal wetlands in southern California, USA (Carpinteria Salt Marsh, Mugu Lagoon) and Mexico (Estero de Punta Banda, Bahia Falsa–San Quintín). We used larval trematode parasites in first intermediate host snails ( Cerithidea californica ) as windows into the adult trematodes that parasitize Clapper Rails. Within and among wetlands, we found positive associations between Clapper Rails and four trematode species, particularly in the vegetated marsh habitat where Clapper Rails typically occur. This suggests that further loss of Clapper Rails is likely to affect the abundance of several competitively dominant trematode species in wetlands with California horn snails, with possible indirect effects on the trematode community and changes in the impacts of these parasites on fishes and invertebrates.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2008

Changes in fish diets and food web mercury bioaccumulation induced by an invasive planktivorous fish

The invasion, boom, collapse, and reestablishment of a population of the planktivorous threadfin shad in Clear Lake, California, USA, were documented over a 20-year period, as were the effects of changing shad populations on diet and mercury (Hg) bioaccumulation in nearshore fishes. Threadfin shad competitively displaced other planktivorous fish in the lake, such as inland silversides, young-of-year (YOY) largemouth bass, and YOY bluegill, by reducing zooplankton abundance. As a result, all three species shifted from a diet that was dominated by zooplankton to one that was almost entirely zoobenthos. Stable carbon isotopes corroborated this pattern with each species becoming enriched in δ 13 C, which is elevated in benthic vs. pelagic organisms. Concomitant with these changes, Hg concentrations increased by ∼50% in all three species. In contrast, obligate benthivores such as prickly sculpin showed no relationship between diet or δ 13 C and the presence of threadfin shad, suggesting that effects of the shad were not strongly linked to the benthic fish community. There were also no changes in Hg concentrations of prickly sculpin. The temporary extirpation of threadfin shad from the lake resulted in zooplankton densities, foraging patterns, isotope ratios, and Hg concentrations in pelagic fishes returning to pre-shad values. These results indicate that even transient perturbations of the structure of freshwater food webs can result in significant alterations in the bioaccumulation of Hg and that food webs in lakes can be highly resilient.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Effects of management and climate on elk brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Every winter, government agencies feed ∼6000 metric tons (6 × 10 6 kg) of hay to elk in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) to limit transmission of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis, from elk to cattle. Supplemental feeding, however, is likely to increase the transmission of brucellosis in elk, and may be affected by climatic factors, such as snowpack. We assessed these possibilities using snowpack and feeding data from 1952 to 2006 and disease testing data from 1993 to 2006. Brucellosis seroprevalence was strongly correlated with the timing of the feeding season. Longer feeding seasons were associated with higher seroprevalence, but elk population size and density had only minor effects. In other words, the duration of host aggregation and whether it coincided with peak transmission periods was more important than just the host population size. Accurate modeling of disease transmission depends upon incorporating information on how host contact rates fluctuate over time relative to peak transmission periods. We also found that supplemental feeding seasons lasted longer during years with deeper snowpack. Therefore, milder winters and/or management strategies that reduce the length of the feeding season may reduce the seroprevalence of brucellosis in the elk populations of the southern GYE.

Wyoming↗
USGS2007

Mangrove recruitment after forest disturbance is facilitated by herbaceous species in the Caribbean

Plant communities along tropical coastlines are often affected by natural and human disturbances, but little is known about factors influencing recovery. We focused on mangrove forests, which are among the most threatened ecosystems globally, to examine how facilitation by herbaceous vegetation might improve forest restoration after disturbance. We specifically investigated whether recovery of mangrove forests in harsh environments is accelerated by nurse plants and whether the beneficial effects are species-specific. Quantification of standardized effects allowed comparisons across performance parameters and over time for: (1) net effect of each herbaceous species on mangrove survival and growth, (2) effects of pre- and post-establishment factors associated with each herbaceous species, and (3) need for artificial planting to enhance growth or survival of mangrove seedlings. Mangrove recruitment in a clear-cut forest in Belize was accelerated by the presence of Sesuvium portulacastrum (succulent forb) and Distichlis spicata (grass), two coastal species common throughout the Caribbean region. The net effect of herbaceous vegetation was positive, but the magnitude of effects on mangrove survival and growth differed by species. Because of differences in their vegetative structure and other features, species effects on mangroves also varied by mechanism: (1) trapping of dispersing propagules (both species), (2) structural support of the seedling (Distichlis), and/or (3) promotion of survival (Sesuvium) or growth (Distichlis) through amelioration of soil conditions (temperature, aeration). Artificial planting had a stronger positive effect on mangrove survival than did edaphic conditions, but planting enhanced mangrove growth more in Sesuvium than in Distichlis patches. Our study indicates that beneficial species might be selected based on features that provide multiple positive effects and that species comparisons may be improved using standardized effects. Our findings are not only relevant to the coastal environments found in the Caribbean region, but our assessment methods may be useful for developing site-specific information to restore disturbed mangrove forests worldwide, especially given the large pool of mangrove associates (>45 genera) available for screening. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2007

Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Western United States↗
USGS2007

Responses of pond-breeding amphibians to wildfire: Short-term patterns in occupancy and colonization

Wildland fires are expected to become more frequent and severe in many ecosystems, potentially posing a threat to many sensitive species. We evaluated the effects of a large, stand-replacement wildfire on three species of pond-breeding amphibians by estimating changes in occupancy of breeding sites during the three years before and after the fire burned 42 of 83 previously surveyed wetlands. Annual occupancy and colonization for each species was estimated using recently developed models that incorporate detection probabilities to provide unbiased parameter estimates. We did not find negative effects of the fire on the occupancy or colonization rates of the long-toed salamander ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ). Instead, its occupancy was higher across the study area after the fire, possibly in response to a large snowpack that may have facilitated colonization of unoccupied wetlands. Naïve data (uncorrected for detection probability) for the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) initially led to the conclusion of increased occupancy and colonization in wetlands that burned. After accounting for temporal and spatial variation in detection probabilities, however, it was evident that these parameters were relatively stable in both areas before and after the fire. We found a similar discrepancy between naïve and estimated occupancy of A. macrodactylum that resulted from different detection probabilities in burned and control wetlands. The boreal toad ( Bufo boreas ) was not found breeding in the area prior to the fire but colonized several wetlands the year after they burned. Occupancy by B. boreas then declined during years 2 and 3 following the fire. Our study suggests that the amphibian populations we studied are resistant to wildfire and that B. boreas may experience short-term benefits from wildfire. Our data also illustrate how naïve presence–non-detection data can provide misleading results.

Montana↗
USGS2008

The human footprint in the west: a large-scale analysis of anthropogenic impacts.

Anthropogenic features such as urbanization, roads, and power lines, are increasing in western United States landscapes in response to rapidly growing human populations. However, their spatial effects have not been evaluated. Our goal was to model the human footprint across the western United States. We first delineated the actual area occupied by anthropogenic features, the physical effect area. Next, we developed the human footprint model based on the ecological effect area, the zone influenced by features beyond their physical presence, by combining seven input models: three models quantified top-down anthropogenic influences of synanthropic predators (avian predators, domestic dog and cat presence risk), and four models quantified bottom-up anthropogenic influences on habitat (invasion of exotic plants, human-caused fires, energy extraction, and anthropogenic wildland fragmentation). Using independent bird population data, we found bird abundance of four synanthropic species to correlate positively with human footprint intensity and negatively for three of the six species influenced by habitat fragmentation. We then evaluated the extent of the human footprint in relation to terrestrial (ecoregions) and aquatic systems (major rivers and lakes), regional management and conservation status, physical environment, and temporal changes in human actions. The physical effect area of anthropogenic features covered 13% of the western United States with agricultural land (9.8%) being most dominant. High-intensity human footprint areas (class 8 – 10) overlapped highly productive low-elevation private landholdings and covered 7% of the western United States compared to 48% for low-intensity areas (class 1 – 3), which were confined to low-productivity high-elevation federal landholdings. Areas within 1 km of rivers were more affected by the human footprint compared to lakes. Percentage human population growth was higher in low-intensity human footprint areas. The disproportional regional effects of the human footprint on landscapes in the western United States create a challenge to management of ecosystems and wildlife populations. Using footprint models, managers can plan land use actions, develop restoration scenarios, and identify areas of high conservation value at local landscapes within a regional context. Moreover, human footprint models serve as a tool to stratify landscapes for studies investigating floral and faunal response to human disturbance intensity gradients.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2008

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2008

Fire severity and ecosytem responses following crown fires in California shrublands

Chaparral shrublands burn in large high-intensity crown fires. Managers interested in how these wildfires affect ecosystem processes generally rely on surrogate measures of fire intensity known as fire severity metrics. In shrublands burned in the autumn of 2003, a study of 250 sites investigated factors determining fire severity and ecosystem responses. Using structural equation modeling we show that stand age, prefire shrub density, and the shortest interval of the prior fire history had significant direct effects on fire severity, explaining >50% of the variation in severity. Fire severity per se is of interest to resource managers primarily because it is presumed to be an indicator of important ecosystem processes such as vegetative regeneration, community recovery, and erosion. Fire severity contributed relatively little to explaining patterns of regeneration after fire. Two generalizations can be drawn: fire severity effects are mostly short-lived, i.e., by the second year they are greatly diminished, and fire severity may have opposite effects on different functional types. Species richness exhibited a negative relationship to fire severity in the first year, but fire severity impacts were substantially less in the second postfire year and varied by functional type. Much of this relationship was due to alien plants that are sensitive to high fire severity; at all scales from 1 to 1000 m 2 , the percentage of alien species in the postfire flora declined with increased fire severity. Other aspects of disturbance history are also important determinants of alien cover and richness as both increased with the number of times the site had burned and decreased with time since last fire. A substantial number of studies have shown that remote-sensing indices are correlated with field measurements of fire severity. Across our sites, absolute differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) was strongly correlated with field measures of fire severity and with fire history at a site but relative dNBR was not. Despite being correlated with fire severity, absolute dNBR showed little or no relationship with important ecosystem responses to wildfire such as shrub resprouting or total vegetative regeneration. These findings point to a critical need for further research on interpreting remote sensing indices as applied to postfire management of these shrublands.

Ecological Applications↗