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USGS2021

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2019

Size distributions of Arctic waterbodies reveal consistent relations in their statistical moments in space and time

Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km 2 (100 m 2 ) to 1 km 2 . We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size ( R 2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Large along-strike variations in the onset of Subandean exhumation: Implications for Central Andean orogenic growth

Plate tectonics drives mountain building in general, but the space-time pattern and style of deformation is influenced by how climate, geodynamics, and basement structure modify the orogenic wedge. Growth of the Subandean thrust belt, which lies at the boundary between the arid, high-elevation Central Andean Plateau and its humid, low-elevation eastern foreland, figures prominently into debates of orogenic wedge evolution. We integrate new apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometer data with previously published apatite fission-track data from samples collected along four Subandean structural cross-sections in Bolivia between 15° and 20°S. We interpret cooling ages vs. structural depth to indicate the onset of Subandean exhumation and signify the forward propagation of deformation. We find that Subandean growth is diachronous south (11 ± 3 Ma) vs. north (6 ± 2 Ma) of the Bolivian orocline and that Subandean exhumation magnitudes vary by more than a factor of two. Similar north-south contrasts are present in foreland deposition, hinterland erosion, and paleoclimate; these observations both corroborate diachronous orogenic growth and illuminate potential propagation mechanisms. Of particular interest is an abrupt shift to cooler, more arid conditions in the Altiplano hinterland that is diachronous in southern Bolivia (16-13 Ma) vs. northern Bolivia (10-7 Ma) and precedes the timing of Subandean propagation in each region. Others have interpreted the paleoclimate shift to reflect either rapid surface uplift due to lithosphere removal or an abrupt change in climate dynamics once orographic threshold elevations were exceeded. These mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and both would drive forward propagation of the orogenic wedge by augmenting the hinterland backstop, either through surface uplift or spatially variable erosion. In summary, we suggest that diachronous Subandean exhumation was driven by piecemeal hinterland uplift, orography, and the outward propagation of deformation.

Andes↗

USGS2008

EAARL coastal topography - Northern Gulf of Mexico

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of Lidar-derived coastal topography were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC), St. Petersburg, FL and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. One objective of this research is to create techniques to survey areas for the purposes of geomorphic change studies following major storm events. The USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program's National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project is a multi-year undertaking to identify and quantify the vulnerability of U.S. shorelines to coastal change hazards such as effects of severe storms, sea-level rise, and shoreline erosion and retreat. Airborne Lidar surveys conducted during periods of calm weather are compared to surveys collected following extreme storms in order to quantify the resulting coastal change. Other applications of high-resolution topography include habitat mapping, ecological monitoring, volumetric change detection, and event assessment. The purpose of this project is to provide highly detailed and accurate datasets of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal areas, acquired on September 19, 2004, immediately following Hurricane Ivan. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural resource managers. An innovative airborne Lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Airborne Advanced Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532 nanometer) Lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive Lidar, a down-looking RGB (red-green-blue) digital camera, a high-resolution multi-spectral color infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a Lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system on September 19, 2004. The survey resulted in the acquisition of 3.2 gigabytes of data. The data were processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of Lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for pre-survey flight line definition, flight path plotting, Lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is routinely used to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of 'last return' elevations.

Alabama, Florida, Mississippi↗

USGS2018

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Prairie Pothole Regino↗

USGS2015

Coral 13C/12C records of vertical seafloor displacement during megathrust earthquakes west of Sumatra

The recent surge of megathrust earthquakes and tsunami disasters has highlighted the need for a comprehensive understanding of earthquake cycles along convergent plate boundaries. Space geodesy has been used to document recent crustal deformation patterns with unprecedented precision, however the production of long paleogeodetic records of vertical seafloor motion is still a major challenge. Here we show that carbon isotope ratios ( ) in the skeletons of massive Porites corals from west Sumatra record abrupt changes in light exposure resulting from coseismic seafloor displacements. Validation of the method is based on the coral response to uplift (and subsidence) produced by the March 2005 M w 8.6 Nias–Simeulue earthquake, and uplift further south around Sipora Island during a M&sim;8.4 megathrust earthquake in February 1797. At Nias, the average step-change in coral was 0.6±0.1&permil;/m for coseismic displacements of +1.8 m and −0.4 m in 2005. At Sipora, a distinct change in Porites microatoll growth morphology marks coseismic uplift of 0.7 m in 1797. In this shallow water setting, with a steep light attenuation gradient, the step-change in microatoll is 2.3&permil;/m , nearly four times greater than for the Nias Porites . Considering the natural variability in coral skeletal , we show that the lower detection limit of the method is around 0.2 m of vertical seafloor motion. Analysis of vertical displacement for well-documented earthquakes suggests this sensitivity equates to shallow events exceeding M w &sim;7.2 in central megathrust and back-arc thrust fault settings. Our findings indicate that the coral paleogeodesy technique could be applied to convergent tectonic margins throughout the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, which host prolific coral reefs, and some of the world's greatest earthquake catastrophes. While our focus here is the link between coral , light exposure and coseismic crustal deformation, the same principles could be used to characterize interseismic strain during earthquake cycles over the last several millennia.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2024

Automatic identification and quantification of volcanic hotspots in Alaska using HotLINK: The hotspot learning and identification network

An increase in volcanic thermal emissions can indicate subsurface and surface processes that precede, or coincide with, volcanic eruptions. Space-borne infrared sensors can detect hotspots—defined here as localized volcanic thermal emissions—in near-real-time. However, automatic hotspot detection systems are needed to efficiently analyze the large quantities of data produced. While hotspots have been automatically detected for over 20 years with simple thresholding algorithms, new computer vision technologies, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), can enable improved detection capabilities. Here we introduce HotLINK: the Hotspot Learning and Identification Network, a CNN trained to detect hotspots with a dataset of −3,800 satellite-based, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) images from Mount Veniaminof and Mount Cleveland volcanoes, Alaska. We find that our model achieves an accuracy of 96% (F1-score 0.92) when evaluated on −1,700 unseen images from the same volcanoes, and 95% (F1-score 0.67) when evaluated on −3,000 images from six additional Alaska volcanoes (Augustine Volcano, Bogoslof Island, Okmok Caldera, Pavlof Volcano, Redoubt Volcano, Shishaldin Volcano). In comparison with an existing threshold-based hotspot detection algorithm, MIROVA (Coppola et al., Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 2016, 426, 181–205), our model detects 22% more hotspots and produces 12% fewer false positives. Additional testing on −700 labeled Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from Mount Veniaminof demonstrates that our model is applicable to this sensor’s data as well, achieving an accuracy of 98% (F1-score 0.95). We apply HotLINK to 10 years of VIIRS data and 22 years of MODIS data for the eight aforementioned Alaska volcanoes and calculate the radiative power of detected hotspots. From these time series we find that HotLINK accurately characterizes background and eruptive periods, similar to MIROVA, but also detects more subtle warming signals, potentially related to volcanic unrest. We identify three advantages to our model over its predecessors: 1) the ability to detect more subtle volcanic hotspots and produce fewer false positives, especially in daytime images; 2) probabilistic predictions provide a measure of detection confidence; and 3) its transferability, i.e., the successful application to multiple sensors and multiple volcanoes without the need for threshold tuning, suggesting the potential for global application.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Wildland fire ash: Production, composition and eco-hydro-geomorphic effects

Fire transforms fuels (i.e. biomass, necromass, soil organic matter) into materials with different chemical and physical properties. One of these materials is ash, which is the particulate residue remaining or deposited on the ground that consists of mineral materials and charred organic components. The quantity and characteristics of ash produced during a wildland fire depend mainly on (1) the total burned fuel (i.e. fuel load), (2) fuel type and (3) its combustion completeness. For a given fuel load and type, a higher combustion completeness will reduce the ash organic carbon content, increasing the relative mineral content, and hence reducing total mass of ash produced. The homogeneity and thickness of the ash layer can vary substantially in space and time and reported average thicknesses range from close to 0 to 50 mm. Ash is a highly mobile material that, after its deposition, may be incorporated into the soil profile, redistributed or removed from a burned site within days or weeks by wind and water erosion to surface depressions, footslopes, streams, lakes, reservoirs and, potentially, into marine deposits. Research on the composition, properties and effects of ash on the burned ecosystem has been conducted on material collected in the field after wildland and prescribed fires as well as on material produced in the laboratory. At low combustion completeness (typically T < 450 °C), ash is organic-rich, with organic carbon as the main component. At high combustion completeness (T > 450 °C), most organic carbon is volatized and the remaining mineral ash has elevated pH when in solution. It is composed mainly of calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, silicon and phosphorous in the form of inorganic carbonates, whereas at T > 580 °C the most common forms are oxides. Ash produced under lower combustion completeness is usually darker, coarser, and less dense and has a higher saturated hydraulic conductivity than ash with higher combustion completeness, although physical reactions with CO 2 and when moistened produce further changes in ash characteristics. As a new material present after a wildland fire, ash can have profound effects on ecosystems. It affects biogeochemical cycles, including the C cycle, not only within the burned area, but also globally. Ash incorporated into the soil increases temporarily soil pH and nutrient pools and changes physical properties such as albedo, soil texture and hydraulic properties including water repellency. Ash modifies soil hydrologic behavior by creating a two-layer system: the soil and the ash layer, which can function in different ways depending on (1) ash depth and type, (2) soil type and (3) rainfall characteristics. Key parameters are the ash's water holding capacity, hydraulic conductivity and its potential to clog soil pores. Runoff from burned areas carries soluble nutrients contained in ash, which can lead to problems for potable water supplies. Ash deposition also stimulates soil microbial activity and vegetation growth. Further work is needed to (1) standardize methods for investigating ash and its effects on the ecosystem, (2) characterize ash properties for specific ecosystems and wildland fire types, (3) determine the effects of ash on human and ecosystem health, especially when transported by wind or water, (4) investigate ash's controls on water and soil losses at slope and catchment scales, (5) examine its role in the C cycle, and (6) study its redistribution and fate in the environment.

Earth-Science Reviews↗