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A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an example of the type of results generated, we estimated that the probability of the manatee population falling to less than 250 adults on either the Atlantic or Gulf coasts (from a current statewide population size of near 3300) within 100 years is 8.6%. Complete removal of the watercraft threat alone would reduce this risk to 0.4%; complete removal of the warm-water threat to 4.2%; removal of both threats would reduce the risk to 0.1%. The modeling approach we have taken also allows us to consider partial removal of threats, as well as removal of multiple threats simultaneously. We believe the measure we have proposed (probability of quasi-extinction over y years, with quasi-extinction defined as dropping below a threshold of z on either coast) is a suitable measure of status that integrates a number of the elements that are relevant to interpretation under the ESA (it directly integrates risk of extinction and reduction of range, and indirectly integrates loss of genetic diversity). But the identification of the time frame of interest and the tolerable risk of quasi-extinction are policy decisions, and an ecology-based quasi-extinction threshold has not yet been determined. We have endeavored to provide results over a wide range of these parameters to give decision-makers useful information to assess status. This assessment of threats suggests that watercraft-related mortality is having the greatest impact on manatee population growth and resilience. Elimination of this single threat would greatly reduce the probability of quasi-extinction. Loss of warm-water is also a significant threat, particularly over the long-term. Red tide and entanglement, while noticeable threats, have had less of an impact on the manatee population. The effect of water control structures may have already been largely mitigated. We did not, however, consider an exhaustive list of threats. Other threats (e.g., reduction of food resources due to storms and development) may play a

Open-File Report

Literature review of giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ) biology and conservation

This report reviews the available literature on giant gartersnakes ( Thamnophis gigas ) to compile existing information on this species and identify knowledge gaps that, if addressed, would help to inform conservation efforts for giant gartersnakes. Giant gartersnakes comprise a species of semi-aquatic snake precinctive to wetlands in the Central Valley of California. The diversion of surface water and conversion of wetlands to agricultural and other land uses resulted in the loss of more than 90 percent of natural giant gartersnake habitats. Because of this habitat loss, giant gartersnakes are now listed by the United States and California Endangered Species Acts as Threatened. Most extant populations occur in the rice-growing regions of the Sacramento Valley, which comprises the northern portion of the giant gartersnake’s former range. The huge demand for water in California for agriculture, industry, recreation, and other human consumption, combined with periodic severe drought, places remaining giant gartersnake habitats at increased risk of degradation and loss. This literature review summarizes the available information on giant gartersnake distribution, habitat relations, behavior, demography, and other aspects of its biology relevant to conservation. This information is then compiled into a graphical conceptual model that indicates the importance of different aspects of giant gartersnake biology for maintaining positive population growth, and identifies those areas for which important information relevant for conservation is lacking. Directing research efforts toward these aspects of giant gartersnake ecology will likely result in improvements to conserving this unique species while meeting the high demands for water in California.

Open-File Report

Construction and analysis of a giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) population projection model

The giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ) is a state and federally threatened species precinctive to California. The range of the giant gartersnake has contracted in the last century because its wetland habitat has been drained for agriculture and development. As a result of this habitat alteration, giant gartersnakes now largely persist in and near rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, because the system of canals that conveys water for rice growing approximates historical wetland habitat. Many aspects of the demography of giant gartersnakes are unknown, including how individuals grow throughout their life, how size influences reproduction, and how survival varies over time and among populations. We studied giant gartersnakes throughout the Sacramento Valley of California from 1995 to 2016 using capture-mark-recapture to study the growth, reproduction, and survival of this threatened species. We then use these data to construct an Integral Projection Model, and analyze this demographic model to understand which vital rates contribute most to the growth rate of giant gartersnake populations. We find that giant gartersnakes exhibit indeterminate growth; growth slows as individuals’ age. Fecundity, probability of reproduction, and survival all increase with size, although survival may decline for the largest female giant gartersnakes. The population growth rate of giant gartersnakes is most influenced by the survival and growth of large adult females, and the size at which 1 year old recruits enter the population. Our results indicate that management actions benefitting these influential demographic parameters will have the greatest positive effect on giant gartersnake population growth rates, and therefore population persistence. This study informs the conservation and management of giant gartersnakes and their habitat, and illustrates the effectiveness of hierarchical Bayesian models for the study of rare and elusive species.

Open-File Report

Sea-cliff bedstraw (Galium buxifolium) patterns and trends, 2005–14, on Santa Cruz and San Miguel Islands, Channel Islands National Park, California

Sea-cliff bedstraw (Galium buxifolium [Rubiaceae]) is a delicate dioecious subshrub endemic to Santa Cruz and San Miguel Islands, in the northern California Channel Islands. It was listed as endangered in 1997 under the Federal Endangered Species Act, threatened by soil loss, habitat alteration, and herbivory from more than a century of ranching land use. At the time of listing, there were eight populations known from Santa Cruz Island and two from San Miguel Island, restricted to shaded, northfacing volcanic ocean bluffs. The recovery plan included criteria to be considered for delisting such as stabilizing or increasing populations on both islands and recovery actions such as searching for more populations, seed banking, researching seed germination and life history, and reversing factors causing decline. We began studying sea-cliff bedstraw on Santa Cruz Island in the early 2000s to better understand factors related to decline. We surveyed historic populations and searched for new occurrences 2004–06, researched population size-class structure and floral biology 2005–06 at three sites, and tracked demography 2005–14 while treating the invasive periwinkle ( Vinca major ) with herbicide at a fourth site. We collected seeds for germination studies and long-term seed banking from all four study sites. The historically known Santa Cruz Island sites were still extant on the sea-cliffs, and we located 14 occurrences not documented at the time of listing. Sea-cliff bedstraw floral morphology appears evenly balanced between mainly pistillate and staminate plants at the study sites, with other floral types present as well, in the populations we sampled. Seed germination trials showed about a 40 percent germination rate from fresh imbibed seeds. Life-history stage structure 2005–06 varied from purely reproductive plants at one site to nearly equal representation of vegetative and reproductive plants at a second site, with seedlings also present at the remaining two sites. Demographic study of tagged plants at the long-term study plot 2005–14 showed an episodic pattern of high recruitment with low mortality once plants became established beyond the first summer dormant season. A flush of seedlings was seen after periwinkle reduction, indicating that the periwinkle may have been repressing seedling establishment. About 93 percent of the already-established plants tagged in 2005 and 2006 were still present 10 years later in 2014. Findings indicate that sea-cliff bedstraw individuals are long-lived and once established have good survival rates. Taken together, these results imply that population growth is driven more by germination and recruitment into the mature population than by mortality of established plants, at least since feral animal eradication from Santa Cruz Island. Therefore, conservation actions might be best focused on nurturing safe sites for seed germination and seedling survival.

California

Status of spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, 2022—Testing and updating predictive models

The nesting biology and demography of spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri ) along the lower Kashunuk River on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, were studied from 1993 to 2002. This previous work demonstrated that the breeding population on the study area was declining, and demographic modeling predicted that the population would continue to decline from 2002 forward. The predicted decline was primarily because of lead shot in tundra wetlands in the area, exposure of nesting females to lead, resulting in low adult female survival. The model predicted that lead pellets already in wetlands would slowly settle beyond the foraging depth of eiders, and that, lead exposure rates would decline. The goal of this project was to test this prediction by revisiting the lower Kashunuk River study area in 2022 to (1) update previous datasets regarding demographic parameters and (2) validate (or refute) existing models relative to lead exposure rates and the effects of lead on population dynamics. In the summer of 2022, a total of 37 nests were found in a sub-area of the historical study area. Comparing to past efforts in this same sub-area, more nests were found than predicted but the proportion of nesting female spectacled eiders exposed to lead in 2022 (24.3 percent) was still similar to levels of exposure observed between 1994 and 2002 (28.5 percent). Thus, data from the 2022 survey suggests that the earlier decline in numbers of nesting spectacled eiders has reversed, but there has been little decrease in lead exposure over time.

Alaska

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2021 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 5 and July 13, 2021. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed three to four times. We detected 551 territorial male vireos and 26 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 98 territorial male vireos were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 8 of the 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 89 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 70 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 75 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 76 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 18 percent from 2020 to 2021. The number of territories in all but two core survey area drainages decreased by one or more between 2020 and 2021. The decrease in vireo numbers on MCBCP (18 percent) was consistent with population changes in surrounding areas, including the lower San Luis Rey River (24-percent decrease) and the middle San Luis Rey River (6-percent decrease). Most core-area vireo territories (59 percent of males) were in willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 7 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Of all the territories surveyed, 25 percent were in riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) or sandbar willow ( S. exigua ). Upland scrub was used by 8 percent of vireos; 1 percent of vireo territories were in non-native vegetation, and less than 1 percent of vireo territories were in alder or drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak ( Quercus agrifolia ) and sycamore. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water present to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the second year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of a new water diversion dam that was completed in 2019 and two seep pumps that were installed to enhance surface water along the Santa Margarita River in 2019 and 2021. We measured higher total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) at Seep sites than at Reference sites and lower total vegetation cover above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Native herbaceous cover was also higher below 4 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Woody cover was lower above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Soil moisture did not differ between Seep and Reference sites. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. In 2021, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 164 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2021 season. Birds banded included 3 adult vireos and 161 juvenile vireos. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the right leg. There were 52 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2021 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2021. Of these vireos, 45 were banded on Base, 6 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a slightly but significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival of both adults and first-year birds was high from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2013 and low from 2020 to 2021. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites ranged from 45 to 57 percent. Most returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2020 and 2021, 84 percent (94 percent of males; no females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometer (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2021 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2020 was 1.1±0.7 km. We monitored Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Vireos were monitored at two Seep sites and two Reference sites. Early in 2021, a seep was installed in a 2020 Reference site, which changed the status of this monitoring site from Reference to Seep. Nesting activity was monitored between April 5 and July 22 in 50 territories within the Seep and Reference sites (25 at Seep sites and 25 at Reference sites). All territories, except one, were occupied by pairs and all were fully monitored, meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (42 in Seep sites and 55 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep site and Reference sites (3.6 and 3.4 young per pair, respectively), with 84 percent of Seep pairs and 88 percent of Reference pairs successfully fledging at least one young in 2021. Seep sites had a higher proportion of all eggs that hatched and also a higher proportion of nests with eggs that hatched than Reference sites. Seep sites and References sites had similar proportions of hatchlings that fledged and nests with hatchlings that fledged. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2021 was higher in Seep sites than in Reference sites. Completed nests at the Seep site were more likely to be successful than nests at Reference sites in 2021. At Seep sites, 75 percent of nests fledged young, whereas 53 percent of nests at Reference successfully fledged young. Vireos at Reference sites had to expend more energy in extra nest-building and egg-laying to produce a similar number of young as vireos at Seep sites. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 100 percent and 83 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes. There were 11 plant species used as hosts for vireo nests in 2021. Successful vireo nests at Reference sites were further from the edge of host plants (closer to the center) and further from the edge of the nest plant clump than unsuccessful nests. Vireo nests at Seep sites were further from the edge of the host plant and the nest plant clump than vireo nests at Reference sites.

California

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2022 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 4 and July 12, 2022. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 571 territorial male vireos and 14 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 90 territorial male vireos and 2 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 7 of the 11 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 90 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 73 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 81 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 61 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP increased 4 percent from 2021 to 2022. In three core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least two, and in five core survey area drainages, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least two between 2021 and 2022. The increase in the number of vireo territories on MCBCP was consistent with population changes at the lower San Luis Rey River (7-percent increase), but not with Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton (10-percent decrease). A wildfire in July 2021 burned approximately 22 hectares of vireo habitat on the Santa Margarita River. There was no difference in the number of vireo territories within the fire perimeter before the fire (three territories in 2021) and after the fire (three territories in 2022). Most core-area vireos (52 percent, including transients) used mixed willow (Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 8 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Riparian scrub composed of mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ), sandbar willow ( S. exigua ), or blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana ) was used at 37 percent of vireo territories. Upland scrub was used by 2 percent of the vireos, and 1 percent of vireo territories were in drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and sycamore. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the third year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of surface water enhancement by seep pumps installed along the Santa Margarita River. Total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Conversely, there was more non-native vegetation cover above 2 m (from 2 to 4 m) at Reference sites than at Seep sites. Soil moisture was greater at Seep sites than at Reference sites and decreased with increasing distance from the seep outlets. Soil moisture was positively correlated with total foliage cover and woody cover at most height categories. Soil moisture was not correlated with total herbaceous cover at any height category, although it was positively correlated with native herbaceous cover from 1 to 2 m and negatively correlated with non-native cover from 2 to 4 m. The number of vireo fledglings produced per egg was positively correlated with woody cover from 0 to 2 m but negatively correlated with herbaceous cover from 0 to 2 m. The number of fledglings produced per pair was negatively correlated with herbaceous and non-native vegetation cover below 2 m. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. By the end of 2021, 978 Least Bell’s Vireos had been color banded on Base. In 2022, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 135 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2022 season. Birds banded included 4 adult vireos and 131 juveniles. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the left leg. There were 43 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2022 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2022. Of these vireos, 39 were banded on Base, 3 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival for adults and first-year birds was lowest from 2020 to 2021 and highest from 2012 to 2013. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites was not affected by whether they were originally banded at a Seep versus Reference site. Most of the returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults detected in 2021 and 2022, 89 percent (92 percent of males; 67 percent of females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2022 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2021 was 1.6±1.8 km. Vireo territory density at the Seep and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. Although vireo territory density at Seep sites appeared greater than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed, the difference was not significant. We monitored Least Bell’s Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. We monitored vireo nesting activity at 25 territories in 2 Seep sites and 25 territories in 2 Reference sites between March 31 and July 28. All territories except one were occupied by pairs, and all were “fully monitored,” meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (49 in Seep sites and 48 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep and Reference sites (2.7 and 3.3 young fledged per pair, respectively), although more pairs at Reference sites than Seep sites fledged at least one young (96 versus 76 percent, respectively). There were no other differences in breeding productivity between Seep site pairs and Reference site pairs. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2022 was not related to whether the territory was in a Seep versus a Reference site. Completed nests at the Seep sites had similar fledging success as nests at Reference sites in 2022. At Seep sites, 56 percent of nests fledged young whereas 67 percent of Reference nests successfully fledged young. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 80 percent and 73 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes. Vireos placed their nests in 12 plant species in 2022. We detected no differences in nest placement between successful and unsuccessful vireo nests or between Seep and Reference sites. Precipitation appeared to play a role in fluctuations in the vireo population on MCBCP; however, it could not be directly linked to annual vireo breeding productivity. One possible factor that may be confounding the relationship between vireo breeding productivity and precipitation may be nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) in the region, especially on the nearby San Luis Rey River.

California

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2020 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP, or Base). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were conducted at MCBCP, California, between April 1 and July 10, 2020. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed 3–4 times. We detected 669 territorial male vireos and 16 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 156 territorial male vireos were detected in non-core survey areas. Territorial vireos were detected on all 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 88 percent were on the 4 most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 69 percent of all territories. In core areas, 79 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 83 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP (669) increased 39 percent from 2019 to 2020. The number of territories in all core survey area drainages increased by one or more between 2019 and 2020. The substantial increase in vireo numbers on MCBCP (39 percent) was consistent with population changes in surrounding areas, including the lower San Luis Rey River (26 percent), Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton (58 percent), and the middle San Luis Rey River (7 percent). Most core-area vireo territories (69 percent of males) occurred in willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 4 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Eighteen percent of territories were found in riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) or sandbar willow ( S. exigua ). Upland scrub was used by 7 percent or fewer vireos; 1 percent of territories occurred in non-native vegetation, and less than 1 percent of vireo territories occurred in habitat co-dominated by coast live oak ( Quercus agrifolia ) and sycamore. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River. The artificial seep pumped water to the surface from March through August each year during daylight hours and was designed to increase the amount of surface water present to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ; flycatcher) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep and proposed seep areas within the past several years. Therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents preliminary analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the existing artificial seep. We sampled vegetation in the Seep site and three Reference sites to determine the effects of a new water diversion dam that was completed in 2019 and a surface water enhancement seep pump installed along the Santa Margarita River. We found minor differences in non-native vegetation cover between Reference sites and the Seep site. However, soil moisture was higher at the Reference sites compared to the Seep site. The effect of the seep pump may have been masked by high precipitation in the bio-year (July 1‒June 30) before 2020, limited time for the water diversion to have an effect, well-draining soil, and the non-operation of two to three of the six seep outlets. We color banded and resighted color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 146 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2020 season. Birds banded included 27 adult vireos and 119 juvenile vireos. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the left leg. We resighted and identified 85 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2020 breeding season on Base in 2020. Of the 85, 13 vireos were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, 2 were banded in Baja California Sur, 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton, and the remaining birds were banded at MCBCP. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 8 years old. Most returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2019 and 2020, 74 percent, (79 percent of males; 40 percent of females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.3 plus or minus (±) 0.8 kilometer (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2020 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2019 was 4.7±7.0 km. One first-year vireo that originated at MCBCP moved off Base and was detected at Murrieta Creek, 23.0 km from his natal territory. We monitored Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Vireos were monitored at one Seep site and three Reference sites. Base personnel plan to install a second seep pump at one of the Reference sites in the future, at which time the status of the monitoring site will change from Reference to Seep. Nesting activity was monitored between March 31 and July 28 in 52 territories within the Seep and Reference sites (12 at the Seep site and 40 at Reference sites). All territories were occupied by pairs, and all but one territory was fully monitored, meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. One vireo territory within a Reference site was partially monitored. During the monitoring period, 94 nests (25 in the Seep site and 69 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep site and Reference sites (3.7 and 2.9 young per pair, respectively), with 75 percent of Seep pairs and 79 percent of Reference pairs successfully fledging at least 1 young in 2020. Compared to Reference sites, the Seep site had a higher proportion of all eggs that hatched and also a higher proportion of nests with eggs that hatched. Conversely, a lower proportion of hatchlings and nests that had hatchlings fledged at the Seep site than at Reference sites. According to the best model, nest survival in 2020 was not affected by treatment (Seep versus Reference), although the second best model that included treatment was also well supported. Completed nests at the Seep site were likely to be as successful as nests at Reference sites in 2020 (57 percent and 59 percent, respectively). Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 90 percent and 73 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining eight nests was attributed to the collapse of the nesting substrate, exposure to rain and flooding, and other unknown reasons. Fourteen plant species were used as hosts for vireo nests in 2020. In 2020, we found that at the Seep site, successful nests were placed in taller host plants and further from the edge of host plants (closer to the center) than unsuccessful nests. We found no difference in nest placement between the Seep site and the Reference sites.

California

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2021 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP). Surveys for the flycatcher were completed at MCBCP between May 5 and July 31, 2021. All of MCBCP’s historically occupied riparian habitat (core survey area) was surveyed for flycatchers in 2021. Additionally, one-fifth of the non-historically occupied riparian habitat (non-core survey area C) was surveyed for flycatchers. Twenty-four transient Willow Flycatchers of unknown subspecies were observed on five of the seven drainages surveyed in 2021. No Willow Flycatchers were detected at French or Las Flores Creeks. Transients occurred in a range of habitat types, including mixed willow ( Salix spp.) riparian, riparian scrub, willow-sycamore ( Platanus sp.) dominated or oak ( Quercus spp.) sycamore-dominated riparian, and non-native-dominated riparian habitat. Exotic vegetation, primarily poison hemlock ( Conium maculatum ), was present in most flycatcher locations. The resident population of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers on MCBCP declined 50 percent, from two individuals in 2020 to one individual in 2021. In 2021, the resident Southwestern Willow Flycatcher population on MCBCP consisted of one unpaired female occupying one territory. No males were observed in 2021. The resident flycatcher population was restricted to the Santa Margarita River, and distribution was limited to the Pueblitos breeding area. The resident flycatcher territory was located in mixed willow riparian habitat. Nesting was initiated in late May and continued into late July. Two nesting attempts were documented, neither of which were successful. Infertile eggs likely accounted for both nest failures. No instances of Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) parasitism were observed. The female flycatcher placed her nests in native sandbar willow ( Salix exigua ) and used the same nest location for both nesting attempts. Of resident birds that were present at MCBCP in 2021, 100 percent were banded in previous years; no unbanded birds were detected. Of the two uniquely banded adult flycatchers (one male, one female) present during the 2020 breeding season, 50 percent (one female) returned to MCBCP in 2021. The banded female returned to the same breeding area and territory she occupied in 2020. Neither of the two nestlings banded in 2020 returned to MCBCP in 2021, and neither were detected off Base. From 2000 to 2021, adult over-winter survival of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers on MCBCP was 60±3 percent (mean±standard error [SE]), and first-year survival was 20±3 percent. A conspecific attraction study that used automatic playback units to broadcast flycatcher vocalizations in order to encourage flycatchers to settle on MCBCP was initiated in 2018 and repeated annually through 2021. The single resident flycatcher (female) detected in 2021 settled close to an automated playback unit.

California

Distribution, abundance, breeding activities, and habitat use of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2023 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California (MCBCP or Base). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP between April 11 and July 20, 2023. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 561 territorial male vireos and 28 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 103 territorial male vireos and 15 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 10 of the 15 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). In core survey areas, 90 percent of vireo territories were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 72 percent of all territories in core areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 79 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 69 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 2 percent from 2022. In two core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least three, and in two core survey area drainages, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least four between 2022 and 2023. The number of vireo territories at the lower San Luis Rey River increased 2 percent from 2022, in contrast to the decrease at MCBCP; however, this change was negligible overall. Although the 10-percent decrease at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton from 2022 to 2023 was superficially less trivial, this 10-percent decrease represented the loss of a single territory. The proportion of surveys during which Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) were detected decreased to 0.20 from a peak of 0.45 in 2022. Cowbirds were detected from April through July in 2023. Most core-area vireos (62 percent, including transients) used mixed willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 7 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ), sandbar willow ( S. exigua ), or blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana ) was used by 29 percent of vireos. Habitat dominated by coast live oak ( Quercus agrifolia ) and sycamore or non-native habitat was used by 1 percent of vireos; fewer than 1 percent of vireo territories were in upland scrub and habitat dominated by white alder ( Alnus rhombifolia ). In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water present to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited MCBCP, including the seep areas, within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the fourth year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. In 2020, we established four study sites along the Santa Margarita River, two surrounding and extending downstream of seep pumps at the Old Treatment Ponds and along Pump Road, and two Reference sites in similar habitat but further downstream of the Seep sites. In 2023, seep pumps at one Seep site did not function, and we recategorized that study site as Intermediate. Soil moisture was higher at sites that had surface water augmentation (Seep and Intermediate sites) than at the Reference site, and soil moisture also decreased with increasing distance from the seep pumps. We sampled vegetation at these sites to determine the effects of surface water enhancement by seep pumps. Soil moisture was positively related to total foliage cover, woody cover, and native herbaceous cover below 1 meter (m), and also positively related to native herbaceous cover between 1 and 2 m. The Seep site had greater total vegetation cover in the understory (71–79 percent) than the Intermediate (52–66 percent) and Reference (61–69 percent) sites. Total herbaceous cover below 3 m was higher at the Seep site than at the Intermediate site; total herbaceous cover between 1 and 3 m was higher at the Seep site than at the Reference sites. Native herbaceous cover below 3 m was greater at the Seep site than at the Reference sites; native herbaceous cover between 2 and 3 m was also greater at the Seep site than at the Intermediate site. Non-native cover below 3 m was greater at Seep and Reference sites than at the Intermediate site. We found no difference in woody cover among site types at any height. Vireo territory density among the Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. However, vireo territory density at Seep and Intermediate sites combined was significantly higher than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. By the end of 2022, over 1,000 Least Bell’s Vireos had been color banded on Base. In 2023, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult survival, site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface water enhancement on vireo return rate, site fidelity, and between-year movement. We banded 180 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2023 season, including 1 adult vireo and 179 nestlings. Adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations, whereas nestlings were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the right leg. We resighted 57 Least Bell's Vireos on Base in 2023 that had been banded before the 2023 breeding season, 20 of which we were unable to identify. Of the 37 that we could identify, 34 were banded on Base, 2 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 8 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had significantly higher annual survival than females. Adults had higher annual survival than first-year vireos. Survival for adults and first-year birds was lowest from 2020 to 2021 and highest from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2013. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep, Intermediate, or Reference sites was not affected by the original banding site (Seep versus Intermediate versus Reference). Most returning adult vireos, predominantly males, showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2022, 88 percent (96 percent of males; 25 percent of females) returned in 2023 to within 100 m of their previous territory. The discrepancy between male and female return rates follows the pattern observed in previous years. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.4±1.9 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2023 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2022 was 0.9±0.5 km. We monitored Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. We monitored vireo nesting activity at 13 territories in the Seep site, 12 territories at the Intermediate site, and 25 territories in the Reference sites between April 8 and July 26. All territories except one at a Seep site and one at a Reference site were occupied by pairs, and all were fully monitored, meaning that all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 99 nests (26 in the Seep site, 28 at the Intermediate site, and 45 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites (2.9, 3.6, and 3.0 young fledged per pair, respectively), and a similar percentage of pairs at Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites fledged at least 1 young (83, 83, and 96 percent, respectively). Other measures of breeding productivity were also similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference site pairs. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2023 was not related to site. Fledging success appeared lower at Intermediate and Seep sites than at the Reference sites in 2023 (48, 46, and 67 percent, respectively), although the difference was not statistically significant. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at all sites. Predation accounted for 85, 77, and 71 percent of nest failures at Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs, collapse of the vegetation supporting the nest, and other unknown causes. We found no relationships between vireo productivity and understory (below 3 m) vegetation cover. Vireos placed their nests in 15 plant species in 2023. We found few differences in nest placement between successful and unsuccessful vireo nests. At Reference sites, successful vireo nests were placed slightly but significantly higher in the vegetation than unsuccessful nests, and at Intermediate sites, successful nests were placed significantly closer to the edge of the nest plant than unsuccessful nests. We did not find differences in nest placement among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites. We found that as bio-year precipitation increased, the number of fledglings produced per vireo pair also increased. We did not find a link between bio-year precipitation and adult survival.

California

Distribution, abundance, breeding activities, and habitat use of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2020–24 summary report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with a summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California (MCBCP or Base). The report presents results of vireo surveys and monitoring in 2024 and summarizes a subset of data collected from 2020 through 2024. Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP between April 4 and July 9, 2024. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 542 territorial male vireos and 17 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 102 territorial male vireos and 2 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 5 of the 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). In core survey areas, 87 percent of vireo territories were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 67 percent of all territories in core areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 77 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 76 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 3 percent from 2023. In five core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least two, and in two core survey area drainages, the Santa Margarita River and Las Flores Creek, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least nine between 2023 and 2024. The number of vireo territories at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton did not change from 2023 to 2024. The proportion of surveys during which Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) were detected decreased to 0.03 from a peak of 0.45 in 2022. Cowbirds were detected in April and June in 2024. Most core-area vireos (58 percent, including transients) used mixed willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 9 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ). Riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ), sandbar willow ( S. exigua ), or blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana ) was used by 33 percent of vireos. Habitat dominated by non-native vegetation was used by 1 percent of vireos. Since 2020, the number of vireos detected in each of the non-core survey groups was greater than expected, based on the change in vireo numbers in core survey areas. Although, the number of vireo territories on Base decreased from 2020–24, from approximately 1,224 to approximately 960, the trend in vireo territory numbers on Base since 2005 has been positive. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface during daylight hours starting in mid-April and ending in August each year and were designed to increase the amount of surface water to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited MCBCP, including the seep areas, within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the fifth year of annual monitoring and analyses summarizing all 5 years of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. In 2020, we established four study sites along the Santa Margarita River, two surrounding and extending downstream from existing and proposed seep pumps at the Old Treatment Ponds and along Pump Road and two Reference sites in similar habitat downstream from the Seep sites. Seep pumps began operating at the Old Treatment Ponds in 2020 and along Pump Road in 2021. In 2023, seep pumps at the Pump Road Seep site did not function, and we recategorized that study site as Intermediate. We sampled vegetation at Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites to determine the effects of surface-water enhancement by seep pumps. In 2024, vegetation cover was highest near the ground and decreased with increasing height. Woody vegetation made up most of the cover at all height categories. We determined that Seep and Intermediate sites differed from each other in addition to differing from Reference sites, which likely is, in part, because seep-pump operation at the Intermediate site was inconsistent compared to the Seep site. Soil saturation in 2024 was high at the Intermediate site and was associated with high native herbaceous cover and low non-native herbaceous cover. Sites differed, with the Intermediate site having more upper canopy cover in general, the Seep site having more low woody cover, and the Reference sites having more mid-canopy non-native vegetation cover. Soil saturation significantly increased from 2020 through 2024 at the Seep site and was significantly higher at Seep and Intermediate sites than at their paired Reference sites in all years. Soil saturation likely was increased by the supplemental surface water at the Seep site. However, soil saturation at the Intermediate site was not clearly associated with seep pumps but likely affected by soil saturation at the site before seep-pump installation and flooding from high precipitation. Canopy height increased at the Intermediate site from 2020 through 2024 and increased with increasing soil saturation at the Intermediate and Reference sites. The canopy at the Seep site was shorter than at the Intermediate and Reference sites and decreased from 2020 through 2024 because tall trees were damaged and killed by shothole borer beetles ( Euwallacea spp.). We used Redundancy Analysis to discover associations among vegetation types, plant species, and other environmental variables (soil saturation, site, precipitation, and seep operation, defined as the site and year seep pumps were operating). These associations explained less than 15 percent of the variability in the vegetation, with the remaining 85 percent of variation unexplained. Generally, as soil saturation increased, understory vegetation increased and non-native cover decreased in the mid-and upper canopy. Non-native herbaceous plant species decreased in wetter soil. The Seep site was characterized by more understory and less canopy, contrasting with the Intermediate site, which was characterized by less understory and more higher canopy cover. The addition of surface water via seep pumps or precipitation was associated with more vegetation near the ground. Higher early winter precipitation was associated with taller canopy and more woody vegetation in the upper canopy. We also created a Redundancy Analysis model isolating the components of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher habitat, as identified by Howell and others (2018). In this model, increased soil saturation resulted in increased cover of stinging nettle ( Urtica dioica ) and black willow ( Salix gooddingii ) below 3 meters (m), total cover 3–6 m, and black willow above 6 m. Cover of poison hemlock ( Conium maculatum ) and stinging nettle below 3 m was higher at the Seep site and lower at the Intermediate site. Vireo territory density among the Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. However, vireo territory density at Seep and Intermediate sites combined was significantly higher than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed. We banded and resighted color banded vireos as part of a long-term evaluation of vireo survival, site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo return rate and between-year movement. We banded 164 Least Bell's Vireo nestlings during the 2024 season. In 2024, we resighted 31 Least Bell's Vireos on Base that had been banded before the 2024 breeding season, and we were able to identify 25 of them. Of the 25 that we could identify, 24 were banded on Base and 1 was originally banded on the San Luis Rey River. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 9 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had significantly higher annual survival than females (60 percent versus 47 percent, respectively). Adults had higher annual survival than first-year vireos (61 percent versus 11 percent, respectively). The return rate of adult vireos to Seep, Intermediate, or Reference sites was not affected by the original banding site (Seep versus Intermediate versus Reference). Most returning adult vireos, predominantly males, showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2023, 92 percent (all males) returned in 2024 to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.4±0.03 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2024 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2023 was 2.4±3.1 km. We monitored 47 Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Breeding productivity in 2024 was similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites (2.8, 3.0, and 3.0 young fledged per pair, respectively), and the percentage of pairs that fledged at least one young was not significantly different among sites (83, 91, and 96 percent, respectively). According to the best model, daily nest survival from 2020–24 was not related to site. Other measures of breeding productivity were also similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference site pairs. Between 2020 and 2024, the number of vireo fledglings produced per pair increased with increasing native herbaceous cover under 3 m and decreasing cover of all herbaceous vegetation under 5 m and was not affected by precipitation, site, or seep operation. The number of vireo fledglings produced per egg was lower at the Seep and Intermediate sites than at the Reference sites and increased with decreasing late winter precipitation, cover of poison hemlock, black mustard, non-native vegetation above 2 m, and all vegetation over 2 m. Vireo pairs at Seep and Intermediate sites were less likely to fledge young than vireo pairs at Reference sites. All vireo pairs were more likely to fledge young with less cover of poison hemlock and more cover of poison oak. From 2020 through 2024, vireos placed their nests in 24 plant species. The most used plants in all years were willows, mostly red ( S. laevigata ), or arroyo ( S. lasiolepis ). The fate of a vireo nest (whether it successfully fledged young or not) was not affected by placement in native or non-native vegetation, by site, or by year, but nests were more likely to be successful if they were placed in woody plants than in herbaceous plants. Successful nests were placed higher in the host plant and farther from the outer edge of the nest clump than unsuccessful nests.

California

A Methodology to Assess the National and Regional Impacts of U.S. Wind Energy Development on Birds and Bats

This scientific investigations report describes an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that used research, monitoring data, and modeling to develop a methodology to assess both the current and future population-level consequences of wind energy development on species of birds and bats that are present in the United States during any part of their life cycle. The methodology is currently applicable to birds and bats, focuses primarily on the effects of collisions with turbines, and can be applied to any species that breeds in, migrates through, or otherwise uses any part of the United States. The methodology assesses species at the national and regional scales and identifies those species potentially in need of more detailed study, as well as those species that are likely at low risk from wind energy development. This approach is fundamentally different from existing methods focusing on impacts at individual facilities. This report supersedes USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5066 by the same authors, which described a preliminary version of the methodology. Following reviews of the preliminary methodology by a panel of external experts, public comments, and additional internal review, the methodology was revised and finalized. The three components of the refined methodology described in this new report rely on publicly available fatality information, population estimates, species range maps, turbine location data, biological characteristics of species, and population models. First, three metrics are combined to determine direct and indirect relative effects from wind energy facilities to generate a list of species scores. Second, a generic population model estimates the expected change in population trend caused by the additive mortality from collisions with wind turbines. Third, the methodology combines an estimate of observed fatalities and an estimate of potential biological removal to assess the possibility of a decrease in population size. The latter two components are quantitative. In a test case, the methodology was used to analyze data for six bird species and three bat species. Components of the methodology are based on simplifying assumptions and require information that, for many species, may be sparse or unreliable or may require further study. These assumptions should be carefully considered when using outputs from the methodology. Increases in the quality of data for fatalities from collisions with wind turbines, species distributions, abundance, and demography will likely improve results for uses of the methodology. The methodology’s design identifies and prioritizes a subset of the bird and bat species that may experience population-level impacts from collisions with wind turbines, both currently and from future wind energy development in the United States. Results of an assessment using this methodology could focus future research to improve our understanding of those impacts and to guide avoidance and minimization strategies. In addition, this methodology can be used to identify species for more intensive demographic modeling or to highlight those species that may not require any additional research because effects of wind energy development on their populations are projected to be small. The effects of wind energy facilities on nine unidentified species used in the test case described in this report have not been assessed. Their data were simply used to show the application of the methodology to real-world data and the types of outputs it would produce.

Scientific Investigations Report

Effects of drought on shrub survival and longevity in the northern Sonoran Desert

Effects of drought on shrub survival and longevity in the northern Sonoran Desert. J. Torrey Bot. Soc. 132: 421–431. 2005.—Permanent vegetation plots in the northern Sonoran Desert, USA, provided an opportunity to assess the effects of recent drought on desert shrubs and to examine survival in relation to rainfall variability during the past 76 years. Survival and maximum longevity of six species were determined for eight intercensus periods between 1928 and 2004. Average annual survival was Ambrosia deltoidea , 0.9167 ± 0.0415; Encelia farinosa , 0.7952 ± 0.0926; Janusia gracilis , 0.9334 ± 0.0247; Krameria grayi , 0.9702 ± 0.0270; Larrea tridentata , 0.9861 ± 0.0174; and Lycium berlandieri , 0.9910 ± 0.0077. The longest-lived species were Larrea , Lycium , and Krameria , with average maximum life spans of 330, 211, and 184 years. Janusia , Ambrosia , and Encelia were much shorter lived, with average maximum longevity of 53, 40, and 16 years. Winter rain equalled or exceeded 90% of the long-term average accumulation except during 1948 to 1959 (65% of average) and from 2001 to 2003 (49% of average). Summer rain did not drop below 90% of the average accumulation in any period. The 1950s drought caused modest declines in survival of Ambrosia , Encelia , Janusia , Krameria , and Lycium . The effects of the recent drought were much more pronounced, resulting in sharp declines in survival and maximum longevity of Ambrosia , Encelia , Krameria , and Larrea , and modest declines for Lycium . Despite heightened mortality during the recent severe drought, 72% of the deaths observed between 1928 and 2004 occurred during periods of average or better-than-average rain, providing support for the idea that demography of shrubs in arid regions is influenced by continuous as well as episodic processes.

Arizona

Informing research priorities for immature sea turtles through expert elicitation

Although sea turtles have received substantial focus worldwide, research on the immature life stages is still relatively limited. The latter is of particular importance, given that a large proportion of sea turtle populations comprises immature individuals. We set out to identify knowledge gaps and identify the main barriers hindering research in this field. We analyzed the perceptions of sea turtle experts through an online survey which gathered their opinions on the current state of affairs on immature sea turtle research, including species and regions in need of further study, priority research questions, and barriers that have interfered with the advancement of research. Our gap analysis indicates that studies on immature leatherback Dermochelys coriacea and hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata turtles are lacking, as are studies on all species based in the Indian, South Pacific, and South Atlantic Oceans. Experts also perceived that studies in population ecology, namely on survivorship and demography, and habitat use/behavior, are needed to advance the state of knowledge on immature sea turtles. Our survey findings indicate the need for more inter-disciplinary research, collaborative efforts (e.g. data-sharing, joint field activities), and improved communication among researchers, funding bodies, stakeholders, and decision-makers.

Endangered Species Research

Three decades of stranding data reveal insights into endangered hawksbill sea turtles in Hawai‘i

Hawksbill sea turtles Eretmochelys imbricata inhabiting the Hawaiian Islands are extremely rare and listed as endangered under the US Endangered Species Act. The paucity of data on basic hawksbill ecology continues to hinder effective management of the species. We analyzed stranding data collected between 1984 and 2018 to gain insights into the distribution, demography, and conservation challenges facing hawksbills in Hawai‘i. In doing so, we present a comprehensive description of the population across developmental stages and rank threats that may be impeding their successful recovery. Over the >30 yr data set, we recorded a total of only 111 juvenile and adult hawksbill stranding events. Interactions with nearshore recreational fishing gear were documented for a large proportion (48.6%) of stranding events in the Hawaiian Islands, identifying this as the primary management challenge for the species. Stranding events were biased towards females (female to male sex ratio of 4.8:1.0), which may be indicative of the population as a whole. Even though the majority of hawksbills nest on the islands of Hawai‘i Moloka‘i, and Maui, the greatest number of juvenile to adult strandings was found to be on the island of Oahu (n = 47). Temporal distribution of the majority of adult hawksbill strandings (72.2%) occurred during a 4 mo period between June and September. We discuss these and other findings that help identify future research and conservation efforts to mitigate anthropogenic threats in Hawai‘i for this enigmatic population.

Hawaii

Examining the effect of environmental variability on the viability of endangered Steller sea lions using an integrated population model

Understanding spatio-temporal variability in demography and the influence of environmental conditions offers insight into the factors underlying population dynamics. This is particularly true for species with divergent demographic patterns across large geographic areas. The contrasting abundance trends observed across the range of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) have been studied extensively, with research suggesting that the primary drivers of localized population dynamics vary over time and space. We developed a Bayesian integrated population model for the endangered western distinct population segment of Steller sea lions that combines mark-recapture and count data from 2000-2021 to estimate demographic rates, abundance trends, and the effects of environmental variability on population growth. Our results highlight subregional demographic differences, including reduced pup survival in the central Aleutian Islands and reduced yearling survival west of Samalga Pass. Range-wide abundance increased by 1.7% yr-1 (95% credible interval: 0.14; 3.4%) over the study period, with a positive annual growth rate of 3.0% (1.1; 5.1%) yr-1 east of Samalga Pass, a negative growth rate of -2.1% (-4.6; 0.5%) yr-1 west of Samalga Pass, and an overall low probability of local extirpation (<2%) in 100 years even in subregions experiencing continued decline. The effect of environmental variability on population growth varied depending on subpopulation size and vital rates and was strongest in the area of greatest decline. Our model improves upon existing approaches for estimating abundance, accounts for environmental variability within the viability analysis, and can facilitate evaluating the efficacy of conservation actions and progress toward recovery goals.

Alaska

Bioenergetics model for estimating food requirements of female Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens )

Pacific walruses Odobenus rosmarus divergens use sea ice as a platform for resting, nursing, and accessing extensive benthic foraging grounds. The extent of summer sea ice in the Chukchi Sea has decreased substantially in recent decades, causing walruses to alter habitat use and activity patterns which could affect their energy requirements. We developed a bioenergetics model to estimate caloric demand of female walruses, accounting for maintenance, growth, activity (active in-water and hauled-out resting), molt, and reproductive costs. Estimates for non-reproductive females 0–12 yr old (65−810 kg) ranged from 16359 to 68960 kcal d −1 (74−257 kcal d −1 kg −1 ) for years with readily available sea ice for which we assumed animals spent 83% of their time in water. This translated into the energy content of 3200–5960 clams per day, equivalent to 7–8% and 14–9% of body mass per day for 5–12 and 2–4 yr olds, respectively. Estimated consumption rates of 12 yr old females were minimally affected by pregnancy, but lactation had a large impact, increasing consumption rates to 15% of body mass per day. Increasing the proportion of time in water to 93%, as might happen if walruses were required to spend more time foraging during ice-free periods, increased daily caloric demand by 6–7% for non-lactating females. We provide the first bioenergetics-based estimates of energy requirements for walruses and a first step towards establishing bioenergetic linkages between demography and prey requirements that can ultimately be used in predicting this population’s response to environmental change.

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Harlequin duck population recovery following the 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill: Progress, process and constraints

Following the 1989 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, we studied the status of recovery of harlequin duck Histrionicus histrionicus populations during 1995 to 1998. We evaluated potential constraints on full recovery, including (1) exposure to residual oil; (2) food limitation; and (3) intrinsic demographic limitations on population growth rates. In this paper, we synthesize the findings from our work and incorporate information from other harlequin duck research and monitoring programs to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the response of this species to the 'Exxon Valdez' spill. We conclude that harlequin duck populations had not fully recovered by 1998. Furthermore, adverse effects continued as many as 9 yr after the oil spill, in contrast to the conventional paradigm that oil spill effects on bird populations are short-lived. These conclusions are based on the findings that (1) elevated cytochrome P450 (CYP1A) induction on oiled areas indicated continued exposure to oil in 1998; (2) adult female winter survival was lower on oiled than unoiled areas during 1995 to 1998; (3) fall population surveys by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game indicated numerical declines in oiled areas during 1995 to 1997; and (4) densities on oiled areas in 1996 and 1997 were lower than expected using models that accounted for effects of habitat attributes. Based on hypothesized links between oil contamination and demography, we suggest that harlequin duck population recovery was constrained primarily by continued oil exposure. Full population recovery will also be delayed by the time necessary for intrinsic population growth to allow return to pre-spill numbers following cessation of residual oil spill effects. Although not all wildlife species were affected by the 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill, and some others may have recovered quickly from any effects, harlequin duck life history characteristics and benthic, nearshore feeding habits make them susceptible to both initial and long-term oil spill effects.

Alaska