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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

Some phase relations in the hydrothermally altered rocks of porphyry copper deposits

The application of ACF and AKF diagrams to the hydrothermal alteration in porphyry Cu deposits aids in the recognition of the critical components, and the characteristic mineral phases permit the distinction of one alteration facies from another. The somewhat meager chemical and mineralogical data suggest 3 principal alteration facies, herein called the propylitic, argillic, and potassium silicate facies. The ACF diagram applies to the propylitic alteration. The critical components are Al 2 O 3 , CaO, and (FeO + MgO + MnO), and the characteristic minerals are muscovite (sericite), epidote, chlorite, and a member of the carbonate group. The AKF diagram applies to the argillic and potassium silicate facies. The critical components are Al 2 O 3 , K 2 O, and (FeO + MgO + MnO). The characteristic minerals for the argillic facies are kaolinite (or other member of the group) and muscovite (sericite); and for the potassium silicate facies, muscovite (sericite), biotite, and K-Feldspar. For the propylitic facies, insufficient chemical analyses are available to show the chemical changes between the fresh and altered rock. For the argillic and potassium silicate facies, chemical analyses indicate a loss in Al, Fe, Mg, Ca, and Na; and a gain in K, hydroxyl ion (water), and S. The gain in K is about 60% greater for the potassium silicate facies than for the argillic.

Economic Geology↗

A floodplain continuum for Atlantic coast rivers of the Southeastern US: Predictable changes in floodplain biota along a river's length

Floodplains are among the world’s economically-most-valuable, environmentally-most-threatened, and yet conceptually-least-understood ecosystems. Drawing on concepts from existing riverine and wetland models, and empirical data from floodplains of Atlantic Coast rivers in the Southeastern US (and elsewhere when possible), we introduce a conceptual model to explain a continuum of longitudinal variation in floodplain ecosystem functions with a particular focus on biotic change. Our hypothesis maintains that major controls on floodplain ecology are either external (ecotonal interactions with uplands or stream/river channels) or internal (wetland-specific functions), and the relative importance of these controls changes progressively from headwater to mid-river to lower-river floodplains. Inputs of water, sediments, nutrients, flora, and fauna from uplands-to-floodplains decrease, while the impacts of wetland biogeochemistry and obligate wetland plants and animals within-floodplains increase, along the length of a river floodplain. Inputs of water, sediment, nutrients, and fauna from river/stream channels to floodplains are greatest mid-river, and lower either up- or down-stream. While the floodplain continuum we develop is regional in scope, we review how aspects may apply more broadly. Management of coupled floodplain-river ecosystems would be improved by accounting for how factors controlling the floodplain ecosystem progressively change along longitudinal riverine gradients.

Wetlands↗

Landscape genetics of high mountain frog metapopulations

Explaining functional connectivity among occupied habitats is crucial for understanding metapopulation dynamics and species ecology. Landscape genetics has primarily focused on elucidating how ecological features between observations influence gene flow. Functional connectivity, however, may be the result of both these between‐site (landscape resistance) landscape characteristics and at‐site (patch quality) landscape processes that can be captured using network based models. We test hypotheses of functional connectivity that include both between‐site and at‐site landscape processes in metapopulations of Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) by employing a novel justification of gravity models for landscape genetics (eight microsatellite loci, 37 sites, n = 441). Primarily used in transportation and economic geography, gravity models are a unique approach as flow (e.g. gene flow) is explained as a function of three basic components: distance between sites, production/attraction (e.g. at‐site landscape process) and resistance (e.g. between‐site landscape process). The study system contains a network of nutrient poor high mountain lakes where we hypothesized a short growing season and complex topography between sites limit R. luteiventris gene flow. In addition, we hypothesized production of offspring is limited by breeding site characteristics such as the introduction of predatory fish and inherent site productivity. We found that R. luteiventris connectivity was negatively correlated with distance between sites, presence of predatory fish (at‐site) and topographic complexity (between‐site). Conversely, site productivity (as measured by heat load index, at‐site) and growing season (as measured by frost‐free period between‐sites) were positively correlated with gene flow. The negative effect of predation and positive effect of site productivity, in concert with bottleneck tests, support the presence of source–sink dynamics. In conclusion, gravity models provide a powerful new modelling approach for examining a wide range of both basic and applied questions in landscape genetics.

Idaho↗

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications.

California↗

Spectral mixture analysis for surveillance of harmful algal blooms (SMASH): A field-, laboratory-, and satellite-based approach to identifying cyanobacteria genera from remotely sensed data

Algal blooms around the world are increasing in frequency and severity, often with the possibility of adverse effects on human and ecosystem health. The health and economic impacts associated with harmful algal blooms, or HABs, provide compelling rationale for developing new methods for monitoring these events via remote sensing. Although concentrations of chlorophyll- a and key pigments like phycocyanin are routinely estimated from satellite images and used to infer algal or cyanobacterial cell counts, current methods are unable to provide information on the taxonomic composition of a bloom. This study introduced a new approach capable of differentiating among genera based on their reflectance characteristics: Spectral Mixture Analysis for Surveillance of HABs, or SMASH. The foundation of SMASH is a multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA) algorithm that takes a library of cyanobacteria endmembers and a hyperspectral image as input and estimates the fractional abundance of each genus, plus water, on a per-pixel basis. Importantly, we assume that the water column consists of only pure water and cyanobacteria, implying that our linear spectral unmixing models do not account for other optically active constituents such as suspended sediment and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). We used reflectance spectra for 12 genera measured under a microscope to populate an algal spectral library and applied the SMASH workflow to satellite images from four waterbodies across the United States. Normalized spectral separability scores indicated that the 12 genera were distinct from one another and the MESMA algorithm reproduced known input fractions for simulated mixtures that included all pairwise combinations of genera and water. We used Upper Klamath Lake as an example to illustrate data products generated via SMASH: maps of the normalized difference chlorophyll index and cyanobacterial index, a MESMA-based classification of algal genera, fraction images for each endmember, and a root mean square error (RMSE) image that summarizes uncertainty. For Upper Klamath Lake, these outputs highlighted a complex algal bloom featuring several genera, primarily Aphanizomenon , and intricate spatial patterns associated with gyres. The maximum RMSE constraint imposed on the MESMA algorithm provided a means of avoiding false positive detection of genera not present in a waterbody but must not be set so low as to leave much of an image unclassified in cases where genera included in the library are present. Comparison of endmember fractions with relative biovolumes calculated from field samples indicated that taxonomic information from SMASH was consistent with field observations. For example, the algorithm successfully identified Microcystis in Owasco Lake but avoided misclassifying Asterionella , a genus not yet included in our library, in Detroit Lake. This proof-of-concept investigation demonstrates the potential of SMASH to enhance our understanding of algal blooms, particularly with respect to their spatial and temporal dynamics.

New York, Oregon, Texas↗

Geochemical prospecting for ores; a progress report

Methods of prospecting for mineral deposits by means of chemical studies of residual soil, alluvium, glacial moraine, vegetation, and natural water were first applied on a systematic scale in Scandinavia and Russia about 15 years ago. Since the war, work in this field has been undertaken by several independent groups in the United States and Canada, including the Geochemical Prospecting Unit of the U. S. Geological Survey.Best results have been obtained by systematic analysis of zinc in residuum, ground water, and vegetation; copper and lead in gossan and residuum; tin in residuum and alluvium; molybdenum in residuum; and cobalt, nickel, and gold in vegetation. In addition, studies of plant ecologies and toxicity symptoms in vegetation in relation to metal-rich soil appear to be promising.Rapid colorimetric and spectrographic tests for traces of metals in soil, water, and vegetation have been developed for use under field conditions.

Economic Geology↗

The spatial-temporal relationship of blue-winged teal to domestic poultry: Movement state modeling of a highly mobile avian influenza host

1. Migratory waterfowl facilitate long distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens and are increasingly recognized as contributing to the geographic spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). AIV are globally distributed and have the potential to produce highly contagious poultry disease, economically impact both large-scale and backyard poultry producers, and raise the specter of epidemics and pandemics in human populations. 2. Because migratory waterfowl behavior varies across multiple spatial and temporal scales, the timing and distribution of wild bird AIV introductions to poultry are also heterogeneous in time and space. To help reduce economic impacts to the poultry industry and enable poultry producers to better anticipate when and where poultry outbreaks may occur, it is critically important to consider the movement ecology of the waterfowl species transporting and transmitting AIV. 3. We used telemetry for a geographically widespread and common AIV host, blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ; BWTE), to model reservoir host movement states with respect to backyard and commercial poultry facilities in the United States. Our modeling framework enabled us to estimate wild bird proximity to poultry facilities while concurrently assessing the influence of poultry facilities on BWTE movement state transition. Our primary objective was to estimate the likelihood of duck and poultry overlap by estimating when and where BWTE were geographically closest to poultry. 4. Synthesis and applications . Migratory waterfowl facilitate dispersal of the avian influenza viruses that cause highly contagious poultry disease. Movement analysis of blue-winged teal indicates that spatio-temporal overlap between wild birds and poultry facilities varies by season, the poultry type produced (e.g., turkey, chicken), and if the facility is a commercial or backyard operation. These findings are broadly applicable to disease ecology research and can be applied by poultry producers to improve bio-security, enhance poultry management, and prioritize disease surveillance efforts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Genotyping-by-sequencing illuminates high levels of divergence among sympatric forms of coregonines in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Effective resource management depends on our ability to partition diversity into biologically meaningful units. Recent evolutionary divergence, however, can often lead to ambiguity in morphological and genetic differentiation, complicating the delineation of valid conservation units. Such is the case with the "coregonine problem," where recent postglacial radiations of coregonines into lacustrine habitats resulted in the evolution of numerous species flocks, often with ambiguous taxonomy. The application of genomics methods is beginning to shed light on this problem and the evolutionary mechanisms underlying divergence in these ecologically and economically important fishes. Here, we used restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing to examine genetic diversity and differentiation among sympatric forms in the Coregonus artedi complex in the Apostle Islands of Lake Superior, the largest lake in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Using 29,068 SNPs, we were able to clearly distinguish among the three most common forms for the first time, as well as identify putative hybrids and potentially misidentified specimens. Population assignment rates for these forms using our RAD data were 93%-100% with the only mis-assignments arising from putative hybrids, an improvement from 62% to 77% using microsatellites. Estimates of pairwise differentiation ( F ST : 0.045-0.056) were large given the detection of hybrids, suggesting that reduced fitness of hybrid individuals may be a potential mechanism for the maintenance of differentiation. We also used a newly built C. artedi linkage map to look for islands of genetic divergence among forms and found widespread differentiation across the genome, a pattern indicative of long-term drift, suggesting that these forms have been reproductively isolated for a substantial amount of time. The results of this study provide valuable information that can be applied to develop well-informed management strategies and stress the importance of re-evaluating conservation units with genomic tools to ensure they accurately reflect species diversity.

Wisconsin↗

Pressure core based onshore laboratory analysis on mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments recovered during India's National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition (NGHP) 02

A solid understanding of the mechanical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments is essential for the safe and economic development of methane hydrate as an energy resource. In 2015, 104 pressure cores were collected, recovering sediments from above and within concentrated hydrate reservoirs in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, as part of India’s National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02). These cores provided minimally-disturbed sediment, retained at pressures and temperatures within the hydrate stability field, for the first-ever systematic triaxial test of dozens of subsections of hydrate-bearing pressure core sediments. Post-cruise testing in Japan, evaluated multiple physical and hydro-mechanical properties. Consolidated drained and undrained triaxial compression tests, uniaxial (unconfined in effective stress) compression tests, multistage consolidation and compression tests, and alternating strain-rate compression tests were also performed. Triaxial compression test results showed an increase in the strength and stiffness, as well as the positive dilatancy, with increasing hydrate saturation, supporting previous research on laboratory-formed and natural hydrate-bearing sediments. However, some strength results in this study were low compared to prior analyses of hydrate-bearing sediments. This low strength was likely caused by the host sediment’s small particle size and loose packing, and the relatively slow applied compression strain rate. Results from uniaxial compression and multi-step compression tests confirmed that pore-space hydrates produce an apparent cohesion in hydrate-bearing sediment. More severe strength loss in sediments during the initial loading for multistage compression was also attributable to the presence of hydrates. The applicability of this multistage compression test for determining in situ properties was not confirmed, but results do provide bounds on the in situ values. Finally, from the variable strain-rate tests, it was revealed that strength in hydrate-bearing sediment has a large strain-rate dependence.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

Defining ecological and economical hydropoweroperations: a framework for managing dam releasesto meet multiple conflicting objectives

Hydroelectric dams are a flexible source of power, provide flood control, and contribute to the economic growth of local communities through real-estate and recreation. Yet the impoundment of rivers can alter and fragment miles of critical riverine habitat needed for other competing needs such as downstream consumptive water use, fish and wildlife population viability, or other forms of recreation. Multiple conflicting interests can compromise progressive management especially with recognized uncertainties related to whether management actions will fulfill the objectives of policy makers, resource managers and/or facility owners. Decision analytic tools were used in a stakeholder-driven process to develop and implement a template for evaluation and prediction of the effects of water resource management of multiple-use systems under the context provided by R.L. Harris Dam on the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, USA. The approach provided a transparent and structured framework for decision-making and incorporated both existing and new data to meet multiple management objectives. Success of the template has been evaluated by the stakeholder governing body in an adaptive resource management framework since 2005 and is ongoing. Consequences of management of discharge at the dam were evaluated annually relative to stakeholder satisfaction to allow for adjustment of both management scenarios and objectives. This template can be applied to attempt to resolve conflict inherent in many dam-regulated systems where management decisions impact diverse values of stakeholders.

Journal of Energy Challenges and Mechanics↗

Applying the land use portfolio model to estimate natural-hazard loss and risk — A hypothetical demonstration for Ventura County, California

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

California↗

Sources, sinks, and spatial ecology of cotton mice in longleaf pine stands undergoing restoration

The Fire and Fire Surrogate studya replicated, manipulative experimentsought the most economically and ecologically efficient way to restore the nation's fire-maintained ecosystems. As part of this study, we conducted a 3-year markrecapture study, comprising 105,000 trap-nights, to assess demographic responses of cotton mice (Peromyscus gossypinus) to Fire and Fire Surrogate treatments at the Gulf Coastal Plain site, where longleaf pine was the ecosystem to be restored. We compared competing models to evaluate restoration effects on variation in apparent survival and recruitment over time, space, and treatment, and incorporated measures of available source habitat for cotton mice with reverse-time modeling to infer immigration from outside the study area. The top-ranked survival model contained only variation over time, but the closely ranked 2nd and 3rd models included variation over space and treatment, respectively. The top 4 recruitment models all included effects for availability of source habitat and treatments. Burning appeared to degrade habitat quality for cotton mice, showing demographic characteristics of a sink, but treatments combining fire with thinning of trees or application of herbicide to the understory appeared to improve habitat quality, possibly creating sources. Bottomland hardwoods outside the study also acted as sources by providing immigrants to experimental units. Models suggested that population dynamics operated over multiple spatial scales. Treatments applied to 15-ha stands probably only caused local variation in vital rates within the larger population. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces tensions among stakeholders. Adaptive management as defined here involves ongoing, real-time learning and knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in terms of the adaptive process itself. It is described in what follows in a series of 9 steps, as summarized in section 4.1, involving stakeholder involvement, management objectives, management alternatives, predictive models, monitoring plans, decision making, monitoring responses to management, assessment, and adjustment to management actions. An adaptive approach actively engages stakeholders in all phases of a project over its timeframe, facilitating mutual learning and reinforcing the commitment to learning-based management. Adaptive management in DOI is implemented within a legal context that includes statutory authorities such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act, and the Federal Advisory Committee Act. For many important problems now facing the resource management community, adaptive management holds great promise in reducing the uncertainties that limit the effective management of natural resource systems. For many conservation and management problems, utilizing management itself in an experimental context may be the only feasible way to gain the system understanding needed to improve management. Though it is commonly thought that an adaptive approach can produce results quickly at low cost, the opposite is more likely to be true. An initial investment of time and effort will increase the likelihood of better decision making and resource stewardship in the future, but patience, flexibility, and support are needed over the life of an adaptive management project. For these reasons it is important to carefully consider the potential use of an adaptive approach, and to engage in careful planning and evaluation when adaptive management is used.

Report↗

Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape

In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land-cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future climate scenarios. We then mapped the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Our results show that land cover type has a very large effect on runoff risk as excess rainfall conditions are 234% more likely in bare soil and 75% more likely in grasslands compared to woody forests and shrublands. In contrast, projected shifts in rainfall intensity by end-of-century show little impact on these probabilities and thus, the risk of runoff. This indicates that the probability of excess rainfall is primarily driven by differences in land cover and not by current or potential shifts in rainfall patterns across the Hawaiian landscape. The ability to estimate the risk of potentially ecologically and economically costly runoff based on changes of land cover is useful for managers focused on invasive species control and restoration planning, especially for native and endemic ecosystems unique to the State of Hawai’i.

Hawaii↗

Predictive mapping of seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans off the Pacific Coast of Washington

About this report This report supports Washington-led marine spatial planning and responsible stewardship of natural and cultural resources by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. Washington state agencies and the sanctuary continually seek the best available science to improve management of marine uses and stewardship of resources (Etheridge et al., 2010; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2015a). This report and associated data provide new, state- and sanctuary-requested information on seabird, pinniped, and cetacean distributions. Through spatial planning, information on species distributions can help to identify high-value conservation areas, minimize adverse effects of ocean uses and mitigate impacts of coastal hazards. Correspondingly, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has already begun to use the maps of predicted relative density presented in this report to identify ecologically important areas off the Pacific Coast of Washington and apply this information to plan for offshore renewable energy development. This is the culmination of three years of work to compile information on seabirds, pinnipeds, and cetaceans, and advance a modeling framework that can integrate data sets and develop accurate predictions of relative density for important species off the Pacific Coast of Washington. Previous reports, which evaluated existing datasets of at-sea observations (Menza et al., 2014; Kracker and Menza, 2015) and presented superseded versions of seabird models (Menza et al., 2015), provided base information for this report. In addition to the maps in this published report, all new seabird, pinniped and cetacean predictions will be made publicly available as digital geospatial data through the National Centers for Environmental Information. This research supports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Zone Management Program, a voluntary partnership between the federal government and U.S. coastal and Great Lakes states and territories authorized by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 to address national coastal issues. The act provides the basis for protecting, restoring, and responsibly developing our nation’s diverse coastal communities and resources. To meet the goals of the CZMA, the national program takes a comprehensive approach to coastal resource management – balancing the often competing and occasionally conflicting demands of coastal resource use, economic development, and conservation. A wide range of issues are addressed through the program, including coastal development, water quality, public access, habitat protection, energy facility siting, ocean governance and planning, coastal hazards, and climate change. Accurate maps of seabird and marine mammal distributions are an important tool for making informed management decisions that affect all of these issues.

Washington↗

The timing and magnitude of changes to Hortonian overland flow at the watershed scale during the post-fire recovery process

Extreme hydrologic responses following wildfires can lead to floods and debris flows with costly economic and societal impacts. Process-based hydrologic and geomorphic models used to predict the downstream impacts of wildfire must account for temporal changes in hydrologic parameters related to the generation and subsequent routing of infiltration-excess overland flow across the landscape. However, we lack quantitative relationships showing how parameters change with time-since-burning, particularly at the watershed scale. To assess variations in best-fit hydrologic parameters with time, we used the KINEROS2 hydrological model to explore temporal changes in hillslope saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sh ) and channel hydraulic roughness ( n c ) following a wildfire in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed (41.5 km 2 ), which burned during the 2009 Station fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA. This study explored runoff-producing storms between 2008 and 2014 to infer watershed hydraulic properties by calibrating the model to observations at the watershed outlet. Modelling indicates K sh is lowest in the first year following the fire and then increases at an average rate of approximately 4.2 mm/h/year during the first 5 years of recovery. The estimated values for K sh in the first year following the fire are similar to those obtained in previous studies on smaller watersheds (<1.5 km 2 ) following the Station fire, suggesting hydrologic changes detected here can be applied to lower-order watersheds. Hydraulic roughness, n c , was lowest in the first year following the fire, but increased by a factor of 2 after 1 year of recovery. Post-fire observations suggest changes in n c are due to changes in grain roughness and vegetation in channels. These results provide quantitative constraints on the magnitude of fire-induced hydrologic changes following severe wildfires in chaparral-dominated ecosystems as well as the timing of hydrologic recovery.

California↗

Science for avian conservation: Priorities for the new millennium

Over the past decade, bird conservation activities have become the preeminent natural resource conservation effort in North America. Maturation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), establishment of Partners in Flight (PIF), and creation of comprehensive colonial waterbird and shorebird conservation plans have stimulated unprecedented interest in, and funding for, bird conservation in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the western hemisphere. Key to that success in the United States has been active collaboration among federal, state and local governments, conservation organizations, academia, and industry. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), which has primary statutory responsibility for migratory bird conservation and management, has been a key partner. Despite the great strides that have been made in bird conservation science, historical approaches to research and monitoring have often failed to provide sufficient information and understanding to effectively manage bird populations at large spatial scales. That shortcoming, and the lack of an integrated strategy and comprehensive set of research priorities, is more evident in light of the goals established by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). The NABCI is a trinational, coalition-driven effort to provide an organizational umbrella for existing conservation initiatives. The expanded focus of NABCI and individual bird conservation initiatives is to work together in an integrated, holistic fashion to keep common birds common and to increase populations of declining, threatened, and endangered species. To assist bird conservation initiatives in defining goals and developing new approaches to effective research, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the research agency of DOI, convened a workshop, “Science for Avian Conservation: Understanding, Modeling, and Applying Ecological Relationships,” on 31 October–2 November 2000, which brought together 51 scientists from USGS, as well as scientists and conservationists from other agencies and organizations actively participating in NABCI. As the lead federal agency involved in bird conservation research, USGS has a clear legislative mandate to provide scientific information upon which future management plans and actions will be built. This article summarizes key issues and recommendations that arose from that workshop. The principal goal of the workshop was to guide USGS in defining its role, assessing capabilities, and directing future agency planning in support of bird conservation. A major component was to identify key areas of research needed in this new era of bird conservation science. Although tailored to the mission of USGS, workshop recommendations visualize a bold direction for future avian conservation science in which research and monitoring work in tandem with management to increase our understanding of avian populations and the processes that affect them. The USGS is a science agency whose role is to provide objective scientific information to management agencies and therefore is not directly involved in high-level resource policy-making or on-the-ground management decision making. Nevertheless, it is important to note that effective policy decision making must integrate the best available science with political and economic realities to achieve successful avian conservation—an important subject acknowledged in the workshop, but largely beyond its scope of discussion. Williams (2003) questions regarding how scientific information can be effectively communicated to decision makers and incorporated into natural resource policy. Without an aggressive vision and the willingness of researchers, managers, and policy makers to implement it, conservation of North American birds is likely to proceed without the full benefit of scientific investigation. These recommendations represent the principal conclusions drawn by workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect official USGS policy.

The Auk↗

Compensatory mechanisms in Great Lakes sea lamprey populations: implications for alternative control strategies

Compensatory mechanisms are demographic processes that tend to increase population growth rates at lower population density. These processes will tend to reduce the effectiveness of actions that use controls on reproductive success to suppress sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), an economically important pest in the Great Lakes. Historical evidence for compensatory mechanisms in sea lamprey populations was reviewed, and revealed: (1) strong evidence for shifts in sex ratios as sea lamprey abundance was reduced in the early years of the control program; (2) weak and equivocal evidence for increased growth rates of sea lamprey cohorts re-colonizing streams following a lampricide treatment; and (3) suggestions of other compensatory processes, such as earlier ages at metamorphosis, but with little empirical evidence. Larval size distribution data for cohorts in the first and second years following a lampricide treatment (26 pairs of cohorts in 20 streams) was analyzed and did not indicate a consistent pattern of more rapid growth of the first colonizing cohort (only 11 of 33 cases). To test for compensation between spawning and age-1 in sea lamprey populations, data were analyzed for 49 stream-years for which spawning female abundance was known and age-1 abundance was estimated in the following year. A fit of these data to a Ricker stock-recruitment function showed evidence for compensation, measured as reduced survival to age 1 at higher abundance of spawning females. More obvious, however, was a large amount of density-independent variation in survival, which tends to mask evidence for compensatory survival. The results were applied to a simple model that simulates sea lamprey populations and their control in a hypothetical lake. Control strategies that targeted reproductive success performed far less well than comparable strategies that targeted larval populations, because density-independent recruitment variation leads to occasional strong year classes even when spawner abundance is reduced to low levels through alternative control. It is concluded that further study of recruitment variation in lamprey populations is critical to rationalizing alternative controls that target reproductive success, and that recruitment variation needs to be incorporated into models used to evaluate sea lamprey control options.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗