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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

USGS2006

Prediction of broadband ground-motion time histories: Hybrid low/high-frequency method with correlated random source parameters

We present a new method for calculating broadband time histories of ground motion based on a hybrid low-frequency/high-frequency approach with correlated source parameters. Using a finite-difference method we calculate low- frequency synthetics (< &sim;1 Hz) in a 3D velocity structure. We also compute broadband synthetics in a 1D velocity model using a frequency-wavenumber method. The low frequencies from the 3D calculation are combined with the high frequencies from the 1D calculation by using matched filtering at a crossover frequency of 1 Hz. The source description, common to both the 1D and 3D synthetics, is based on correlated random distributions for the slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time on the fault. This source description allows for the specification of source parameters independent of any a priori inversion results. In our broadband modeling we include correlation between slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time, as suggested by dynamic fault modeling. The method of using correlated random source parameters is flexible and can be easily modified to adjust to our changing understanding of earthquake ruptures. A realistic attenuation model is common to both the 3D and 1D calculations that form the low- and high-frequency components of the broadband synthetics. The value of Q is a function of the local shear-wave velocity. To produce more accurate high-frequency amplitudes and durations, the 1D synthetics are corrected with a randomized, frequency-dependent radiation pattern. The 1D synthetics are further corrected for local site and nonlinear soil effects by using a 1D nonlinear propagation code and generic velocity structure appropriate for the site’s National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification. The entire procedure is validated by comparison with the 1994 Northridge, California, strong ground motion data set. The bias and error found here for response spectral acceleration are similar to the best results that have been published by others for the Northridge rupture.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2006

Quantifying the uncertainty in site amplification modeling and its effects on site-specific seismic-hazard estimation in the upper Mississippi embayment and adjacent areas

The Mississippi embayment, located in the central United States, and its thick deposits of sediments (over 1 km in places) have a large effect on earthquake ground motions. Several previous studies have addressed how these thick sediments might modify probabilistic seismic-hazard maps. The high seismic hazard associated with the New Madrid seismic zone makes it particularly important to quantify the uncertainty in modeling site amplification to better represent earthquake hazard in seismic-hazard maps. The methodology of the Memphis urban seismic-hazard-mapping project (Cramer et al., 2004) is combined with the reference profile approach of Toro and Silva (2001) to better estimate seismic hazard in the Mississippi embayment. Improvements over previous approaches include using the 2002 national seismic-hazard model, fully probabilistic hazard calculations, calibration of site amplification with improved nonlinear soil-response estimates, and estimates of uncertainty. Comparisons are made with the results of several previous studies, and estimates of uncertainty inherent in site-amplification modeling for the upper Mississippi embayment are developed. I present new seismic-hazard maps for the upper Mississippi embayment with the effects of site geology incorporating these uncertainties.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2006

Tilts in strong ground motion

Most instruments used in seismological practice to record ground motion are pendulum seismographs, velocigraphs, or accelerographs. In most cases it is assumed that seismic instruments are only sensitive to the translational motion of the instrument's base. In this study the full equation of pendulum motion, including the inputs of rotations and tilts, is considered. It is shown that tilting the accelerograph's base can severely impact its response to the ground motion. The method of tilt evaluation using uncorrected strong-motion accelerograms was first suggested by Graizer (1989), and later tested in several laboratory experiments with different strong-motion instruments. The method is based on the difference in the tilt sensitivity of the horizontal and vertical pendulums. The method was applied to many of the strongest records of the Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake of 1994. Examples are shown when relatively large tilts of up to a few degrees occurred during strong earthquake ground motion. Residual tilt extracted from the strong-motion record at the Pacoima Dam-Upper Left Abutment reached 3.1?? in N45??E direction, and was a result of local earthquake-induced tilting due to high-amplitude shaking. This value is in agreement with the residual tilt measured by using electronic level a few days after the earthquake. The method was applied to the building records from the Northridge earthquake. According to the estimates, residual tilt reached 2.6?? on the ground floor of the 12-story Hotel in Ventura. Processing of most of the strongest records of the Northridge earthquake shows that tilts, if happened, were within the error of the method, or less than about 0.5??.

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USGS2007

Quantifying the media bias in intensity surveys: Lessons from the 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake

Many seismologists have looked at the 26 January 2001 Bhuj earthquake as a key modern calibration event that could be used to improve estimates of magnitudes of large historic mainshocks in stable continental regions. Since no instrumental data are available for important historic events such as the 1819 Allah Bund, India, and the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S. mainshocks, calibration hinges on comparisons of the macroseismic effects of these earthquakes with those of comparable modern earthquakes for which a reliable, instrumentally determined moment magnitude is available. However, although such a comparison is conceptually straightforward, in practice it is complicated by potentially significant inconsistencies in methods used to quantify macroseismic effects in different regions and/or times. For the Bhuj earthquake, extensive intensity data sets have been compiled and published from both media accounts and detailed direct surveys. Comparing the two provides a quantification of the previously suspected media bias, whereby earthquake effects can be exaggerated in media accounts. This bias is a strong function of intensity level, with substantial bias at the highest shaking levels and significantly less bias at low intensities. Because only sparse documentary data are in general available for older historic earthquakes, the results of this study suggest that their inferred intensity distributions might be similarly biased. We further use the survey-based intensity values to develop a new relationship between intensities and ground motions.

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USGS2007

Local magnitude determinations for intermountain seismic belt earthquakes from broadband digital data

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) earthquake catalogs for the Utah and Yellowstone National Park regions contain two types of size measurements: local magnitude (ML) and coda magnitude (MC), which is calibrated against ML. From 1962 through 1993, UUSS calculated ML values for southern and central Intermountain Seismic Belt earthquakes using maximum peak-to-peak (p-p) amplitudes on paper records from one to five Wood-Anderson (W-A) seismographs in Utah. For ML determinations of earthquakes since 1994, UUSS has utilized synthetic W-A seismograms from U.S. National Seismic Network and UUSS broadband digital telemetry stations in the region, which numbered 23 by the end of our study period on 30 June 2002. This change has greatly increased the percentage of earthquakes for which ML can be determined. It is now possible to determine ML for all M ???3 earthquakes in the Utah and Yellowstone regions and earthquakes as small as M <1 in some areas. To maintain continuity in the magnitudes in the UUSS earthquake catalogs, we determined empirical ML station corrections that minimize differences between MLs calculated from paper and synthetic W-A records. Application of these station corrections, in combination with distance corrections from Richter (1958) which have been in use at UUSS since 1962, produces ML values that do not show any significant distance dependence. ML determinations for the Utah and Yellowstone regions for 1981-2002 using our station corrections and Richter's distance corrections have provided a reliable data set for recalibrating the MC scales for these regions. Our revised ML values are consistent with available moment magnitude determinations for Intermountain Seismic Belt earthquakes. To facilitate automatic ML measurements, we analyzed the distribution of the times of maximum p-p amplitudes in synthetic W-A records. A 30-sec time window for maximum amplitudes, beginning 5 sec before the predicted Sg time, encompasses 95% of the maximum p-p amplitudes. In our judgment, this time window represents a good compromise between maximizing the chances of capturing the maximum amplitude and minimizing the risk of including other seismic events.

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USGS2007

Paleoearthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault, Wrightwood, California, 3000 to 1500 B.C.: A new method for evaluating paleoseismic evidence and earthquake horizons

We present evidence of 11–14 earthquakes that occurred between 3000 and 1500 b.c. on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site. Earthquake evidence is presented in a novel form in which we rank (high, moderate, poor, or low) the quality of all evidence of ground deformation, which are called “event indicators.” Event indicator quality reflects our confidence that the morphologic and sedimentologic evidence can be attributable to a ground-deforming earthquake and that the earthquake horizon is accurately identified by the morphology of the feature. In four vertical meters of section exposed in ten trenches, we document 316 event indicators attributable to 32 separate stratigraphic horizons. Each stratigraphic horizon is evaluated based on the sum of rank (Rs), maximum rank (Rm), average rank (Ra), number of observations (Obs), and sum of higher-quality event indicators (Rs >1 ). Of the 32 stratigraphic horizons, 14 contain 83% of the event indicators and are qualified based on the number and quality of event indicators; the remaining 18 do not have satisfactory evidence for further consideration. Eleven of the 14 stratigraphic horizons have sufficient number and quality of event indicators to be qualified as “probable” to “very likely” earthquakes; the remaining three stratigraphic horizons are associated with somewhat ambiguous features and are qualified as “possible” earthquakes. Although no single measurement defines an obvious threshold for designation as an earthquake horizon, Rs, Rm, and Rs >1 correlate best with the interpreted earthquake quality. Earthquake age distributions are determined from radiocarbon ages of peat samples using a Bayesian approach to layer dating. The average recurrence interval for the 10 consecutive and highest-quality earthquakes is 111 (93–131) years and individual intervals are ±50% of the average. With comparison with the previously published 14–15 earthquake record between a.d. 500 and present, we find no evidence to suggest significant variations in the average recurrence rate at Wrightwood during the past 5000 years.

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USGS2007

Liquefaction, ground oscillation, and soil deformation at the Wildlife Array, California

Excess pore-water pressure and liquefaction at the Wildlife Liquefaction Array in 1987 were caused by deformation associated with both high-frequency strong ground motion and 5.5-second-period Love waves. The Love waves produced large (∼1.5%) cyclic shear strains well after the stronger high-frequency ground motion abated. These cyclic strains generated approximately from 13 to 35% of the excess pore-water pressure in the liquefied layer and caused excess pore-water pressures ultimately to reach effective overburden stress. The deformation associated with the Love waves explains the “postearthquake” increase of pore-water pressure that was recorded at the array. This explanation suggests that conventional methods for predicting liquefaction based on peak ground acceleration are incomplete and may need to consider cyclic strains associated with long-period surface waves. A postearthquake survey of an inclinometer casing indicated permanent shear strain associated with lateral spreading primarily occurred in the upper part of the liquefied layer. Comparison of cone penetration test soundings conducted after the earthquake with pre-earthquake soundings suggests sleeve friction increased. Natural lateral variability of the liquefied layer obscured changes in tip resistance despite a ∼1% reduction in volume. The large oscillatory motion associated with surface waves explains ground oscillation that has been reported at some liquefaction sites during earthquakes.

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USGS2007

Attenuation of ground-motion spectral amplitudes in southeastern Australia

A dataset comprising some 1200 weak- and strong-motion records from 84 earthquakes is compiled to develop a regional ground-motion model for southeastern Australia (SEA). Events were recorded from 1993 to 2004 and range in size from moment magnitude 2.0 ??? M ??? 4.7. The decay of vertical-component Fourier spectral amplitudes is modeled by trilinear geometrical spreading. The decay of low-frequency spectral amplitudes can be approximated by the coefficient of R-1.3 (where R is hypocentral distance) within 90 km of the seismic source. From approximately 90 to 160 km, we observe a transition zone in which the seismic coda are affected by postcritical reflections from midcrustal and Moho discontinuities. In this hypocentral distance range, geometrical spreading is approximately R+0.1. Beyond 160 km, low-frequency seismic energy attenuates rapidly with source-receiver distance, having a geometrical spreading coefficient of R-1.6. The associated regional seismic-quality factor can be expressed by the polynomial: log Q(f) = 3.66 - 1.44 log f + 0.768 (log f)2 + 0.058 (log f)3 for frequencies 0.78 ??? f ??? 19.9 Hz. Fourier spectral amplitudes, corrected for geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, are regressed with M to obtain quadratic source scaling coefficients. Modeled vertical-component displacement spectra fit the observed data well. Amplitude residuals are, on average, relatively small and do not vary with hypocentral distance. Predicted source spectra (i.e., at R = 1 km) are consistent with eastern North American (ENA) Models at low frequencies (f less than approximately 2 Hz) indicating that moment magnitudes calculated for SEA earthquakes are consistent with moment magnitude scales used in ENA over the observed magnitude range. The models presented represent the first spectral ground-motion prediction equations develooed for the southeastern Australian region. This work provides a useful framework for the development of regional ground-motion relations for earthquake hazard and risk assessment in SEA.

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USGS2008

Testing small-aperture array analysis on well-located earthquakes, and application to the location of deep tremor

We have here analyzed local and regional earthquakes using array techniques with the double aim of quantifying the errors associated with the estimation of propagation parameters of seismic signals and testing the suitability of a probabilistic location method for the analysis of nonimpulsive signals. We have applied the zero-lag cross-correlation method to earthquakes recorded by three dense arrays in Puget Sound and Vancouver Island to estimate the slowness and back azimuth of direct P waves and S waves. The results are compared with the slowness and back azimuth computed from the source location obtained by the analysis of data recorded by the Pacific Northwest seismic network (PNSN). This comparison has allowed a quantification of the errors associated with the estimation of slowness and back azimuth obtained through the analysis of array data. The statistical analysis gives ??BP = 10?? and ??BS = 8?? as standard deviations for the back azimuth and ??SP = 0.021 sec/km and ??SS = 0.033 sec /km for the slowness results of the P and S phases, respectively. These values are consistent with the theoretical relationship between slowness and back azimuth and their uncertainties. We have tested a probabilistic source location method on the local earthquakes based on the use of the slowness estimated for two or three arrays without taking into account travel-time information. Then we applied the probabilistic method to the deep, nonvolcanic tremor recorded by the arrays during July 2004. The results of the tremor location using the probabilistic method are in good agreement with those obtained by other techniques. The wide depth range, of between 10 and 70 km, and the source migration with time are evident in our results. The method is useful for locating the source of signals characterized by the absence of pickable seismic phases.

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USGS2008

Simulated ground motion in Santa Clara Valley, California, and vicinity from M≥6.7 scenario earthquakes

Models of the Santa Clara Valley (SCV) 3D velocity structure and 3D finite-difference software are used to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas (SAF), Monte Vista/Shannon, South Hayward, and Calaveras faults. Twenty different scenario ruptures are considered that explore different source models with alternative hypocenters, fault dimensions, and rupture velocities and three different velocity models. Ground motion from the full wave field up to 1 Hz is exhibited as maps of peak horizontal velocity and pseudospectral acceleration at periods of 1, 3, and 5 sec. Basin edge effects and amplification in sedimentary basins of the SCV are observed that exhibit effects from shallow sediments with relatively low shear-wave velocity (330 m/sec). Scenario earthquakes have been simulated for events with the following magnitudes: (1) M 6.8–7.4 Calaveras sources, (2) M 6.7–6.9 South Hayward sources, (3) M 6.7 Monte Vista/Shannon sources, and (4) M 7.1–7.2 Peninsula segment of the SAF sources. Ground motions are strongly influenced by source parameters such as rupture velocity, rise time, maximum depth of rupture, hypocenter, and source directivity. Cenozoic basins also exert a strong influence on ground motion. For example, the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the SCV is especially responsive to 3–5-sec energy from most scenario earthquakes. The Cupertino Basin on the southwestern edge of the SCV tends to be highly excited by many Peninsula and Monte Vista fault scenarios. Sites over the interior of the Evergreen Basin can have long-duration coda that reflect the trapping of seismic energy within this basin. Plausible scenarios produce predominantly 5-sec wave trains with greater than 30 cm/sec sustained ground-motion amplitude with greater than 30 sec duration within the Evergreen Basin.

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USGS2008

High-resolution seismic images and seismic velocities of the San Andreas fault zone at Burro Flats, Southern California

To better understand the structure of the San Andreas fault (SAF) at Burro Flats in southern California, we acquired a three-dimensional combined set of seismic reflection and refraction profiles centered on the main active trace at Burro Flats. In this article, we discuss the variation in shallow-depth velocities along each seismic profile, with special emphasis on the 1500 m/sec P -wave velocity contour, which can be an indicator of shallow-depth water-saturated unconsolidated sediments. Along the four seismic profiles, minimum depths of the groundwater table, as inferred from 1500 m/sec velocity contour, range from 10 to about 20 m. The largest variations in depth to the top of the groundwater table occur in areas near mapped faults, suggesting that the groundwater flow in Burro Flats is strongly affected by the locations of fault traces. We also used the seismic data to develop seismic reflection images that show multiple strands of the SAF in the upper 60 m. Reflectors above the 10 m depth probably correspond to Holocene alluvial deposits; reflectors below the 15 m depth probably arise from velocity or density variations within the Precambrian gneiss complex, likely due to weathering. Apparent vertical offsets of reflectors are observed along profiles (lines 1 and 2) that are normal to the SAF, indicating minor apparent vertical offsets on the SAF at shallow depths. Along line 2, the apparently vertically offset reflectors correlate with zones of relatively low P -wave velocity. Along the central part of lines 1 and 2, the faults form a flower structure, which is typical of strike-slip faults such as the SAF.

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USGS2007

Downhole receiver function: A case study

Receiver function is defined as the spectral ratio of the radial component and the vertical component of the ground motion. It is used to characterize converted waves. We extend the use of the receiver function to downhole data using waves recorded in a borehole, excited by an earthquake of magnitude 4.0 near San Francisco, California, on 26 June 1994. The focal depth of the event was 6.6 km and the epicenter was located at a distance of 12.6 km from the borehole array. Six three-component sensors were located at different depths in a borehole. To extract a coherent response of the near-surface from the incoherent earthquake waves, we deconvolve the waves recorded by the sensors at different depths with the waves recorded by the sensor on the surface. Deconvolution applied to the waves in the S-time window recorded by the radial component result in an upgoing and a downgoing wave propagating with S-wave velocity. For the waves in the P-time window recorded by the radial component, deconvolution also gives an upgoing and a down-going wave propagating with S-wave velocity. This interesting result suggests a P-to-S conversion at a depth below the deepest sensor. To diagnose this we compute the receiver function for the borehole recording of the earthquake waves. The receiver function shows an upgoing wave with an arrival close to time t = 0 for the deepest sensor. The agreement of the upgoing wave in the receiver function with the travel-time curve for the P-to-S converted wave, calculated using the P- and the S-wave velocity profile, supports the hypothesis of a pronounced P-to-S conversion. We present a synthetic example to illustrate that the first arrival of the receiver function applied to borehole data gives the upward-propagating P-to-S converted wave. To corroborate the observation of the mode conversion, we apply receiver function to a different earthquake data recorded by the same borehole array in 1998. The focal depth of the event was 6.9 km and the epicenter was located at a distance of 13 km from the borehole array. The receiver function for these data also show an upgoing wave with a pulse close to time t = 0 at the deepest sensor. The moveout of the upgoing wave agrees with the travel-time curve for the P-to-S converted wave, hence supporting our observation of the mode conversion.

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USGS2007

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 1800 years

This is the second article presenting evidence of the occurrence and timing of paleoearthquakes on the southern Hayward fault as interpreted from trenches excavated within a sag pond at the Tyson's Lagoon site in Fremont, California. We use the information to estimate the mean value and aperiodicity of the fault's recurrence interval (RI): two fundamental parameters for estimation of regional seismic hazard. An earlier article documented the four most recent earthquakes, including the historic 1868 earthquake. In this article we present evidence for at least seven earlier paleoruptures since about A.D. 170. We document these events with evidence for ground rupture, such as the presence of blocky colluvium at the base of the main trace fault scarp, and by corroborating evidence such as simultaneous liquefaction or an increase in deformation immediately below event horizons. The mean RI is 170 ?? 82 yr (1??, standard deviation of the sample), aperiodicity is 0.48, and individual intervals may be expected to range from 30 to 370 yr (95.4% confidence). The mean RI is consistent with the recurrence model of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003) (mean, 161 yr; range, 99 yr [2.5%]; 283 yr [97.5%]). We note that the mean RI for the five most recent events may have been only 138 ?? 58 yr (1??). Hypothesis tests for the shorter RI do not demonstrate that any recent acceleration has occurred compared to the earlier period or the entire 1800-yr record, principally because of inherent uncertainties of the event ages.

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USGS2007

Near-fault peak ground velocity from earthquake and laboratory data

We test the hypothesis that peak ground velocity (PGV) has an upper bound independent of earthquake magnitude and that this bound is controlled primarily by the strength of the seismogenic crust. The highest PGVs, ranging up to several meters per second, have been measured at sites within a few kilometers of the causative faults. Because the database for near-fault PGV is small, we use earthquake slip models, laboratory experiments, and evidence from a mining-induced earthquake to investigate the factors influencing near-fault PGV and the nature of its scaling. For each earthquake slip model we have calculated the peak slip rates for all subfaults and then chosen the maximum of these rates as an estimate of twice the largest near-fault PGV. Nine slip models for eight earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 7.6, yielded maximum peak slip rates ranging from 2.3 to 12 m/sec with a median of 5.9 m/sec. By making several adjustments, PGVs for small earthquakes can be simulated from peak slip rates measured during laboratory stick-slip experiments. First, we adjust the PGV for differences in the state of stress (i.e., the difference between the laboratory loading stresses and those appropriate for faults at seismogenic depths). To do this, we multiply both the slip and the peak slip rate by the ratio of the effective normal stresses acting on fault planes measured at 6.8 km depth at the KTB site, Germany (deepest available in situ stress measurements), to those acting on the laboratory faults. We also adjust the seismic moment by replacing the laboratory fault with a buried circular shear crack whose radius is chosen to match the experimental unloading stiffness. An additional, less important adjustment is needed for experiments run in triaxial loading conditions. With these adjustments, peak slip rates for 10 stick-slip events, with scaled moment magnitudes from -2.9 to 1.0, range from 3.3 to 10.3 m/sec, with a median of 5.4 m/sec. Both the earthquake and laboratory results are consistent with typical maximum peak slip rates averaging between 5 and 6 m/sec or corresponding maximum near-fault PGVs between 2.5 and 3 m/sec at seismogenic depths, independent of magnitude. Our ability to replicate maximum slip rates in the fault zones of earthquakes by adjusting the corresponding laboratory rates using the ratio of effective normal stresses acting on the fault planes suggests that the strength of the seismogenic crust is the important factor limiting the near-fault PGV.

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USGS2007

Basin structure beneath the Santa Rosa Plain, Northern California: Implications for damage caused by the 1969 Santa Rosa and 1906 San Francisco earthquakes

Regional gravity data in the northern San Francisco Bay region reflect a complex basin configuration beneath the Santa Rosa plain that likely contributed to the significant damage to the city of Santa Rosa caused by the 1969 M 5.6, 5.7 Santa Rosa earthquakes and the 1906 M 7.9 San Francisco earthquake. Inversion of these data indicates that the Santa Rosa plain is underlain by two sedimentary basins about 2 km deep separated by the Trenton Ridge, a shallow west-northwest-striking bedrock ridge west of Santa Rosa. The city of Santa Rosa is situated above the 2- km-wide protruding northeast corner of the southern basin where damage from both the 1969 and 1906 earthquakes was concentrated. Ground-motion simulations of the 1969 and 1906 earthquakes, two events with opposing azimuths, using the gravity- defined basin surface, show enhanced ground motions along the northeastern edge of this corner, suggesting that basin-edge effects contributed to the concentration of shaking damage in this area in the past and may also contribute to strong shaking during future earthquakes.

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USGS2008

The 1906 San Francisco earthquake a century later: Introduction to the special section

The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake is perhaps the landmark event in the history of earthquake science. It began with a foreshock at 5:12 a.m. local time in the morning of 18 April 1906. Some 30 sec later, the main event initiated on the San Andreas fault, just off the San Francisco coast ( Lawson, 1908 ). Within 90 sec, nearly 480 km of the San Andreas fault ruptured (see Fig. 1 ), extending south to the northern end of the creeping section near San Juan Bautista and north to the terminus of the fault at the triple junction near Cape Mendocino ( Song et al. , 2008 ). As it ruptured, it generated powerful seismic waves over the entire rupture length and set in motion a chain of events that led to the destruction of most of San Francisco, the largest city of the western United States at the time. The earthquake occurred in the early days of instrumental seismology, which renders the data difficult to analyze, but our best estimate is that the moment magnitude was 7.9 ( Song et al. , 2008 ), about 26 times the size of the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake as measured by seismic moment ( Hanks and Krawinkler, 1991 ; Song et al. , 2008 ).

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USGS2008

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, part I: Validation using the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

We compute ground motions for the Beroza (1991) and Wald et al. (1991) source models of the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake using four different wave-propagation codes and recently developed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. In preparation for modeling the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, we use this well-recorded earthquake to characterize how well our ground-motion simulations reproduce the observed shaking intensities and amplitude and durations of recorded motions throughout the San Francisco Bay Area. All of the simulations generate ground motions consistent with the large-scale spatial variations in shaking associated with rupture directivity and the geologic structure. We attribute the small variations among the synthetics to the minimum shear-wave speed permitted in the simulations and how they accommodate topography. Our long-period simulations, on average, under predict shaking intensities by about one-half modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units (25%-35% in peak velocity), while our broadband simulations, on average, under predict the shaking intensities by one-fourth MMI units (16% in peak velocity). Discrepancies with observations arise due to errors in the source models and geologic structure. The consistency in the synthetic waveforms across the wave-propagation codes for a given source model suggests the uncertainty in the source parameters tends to exceed the uncertainty in the seismic velocity structure. In agreement with earlier studies, we find that a source model with slip more evenly distributed northwest and southeast of the hypocenter would be preferable to both the Beroza and Wald source models. Although the new 3D seismic velocity model improves upon previous velocity models, we identify two areas needing improvement. Nevertheless, we find that the seismic velocity model and the wave-propagation codes are suitable for modeling the 1906 earthquake and scenario events in the San Francisco Bay Area.

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USGS2008

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, part II: Ground-motion estimates for the 1906 earthquake and scenario events

We estimate the ground motions produce by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.

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