Surface water supply of the United States, 1939 : Part 14, Pacific slope basins in Oregon and lower Columbia River basin
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As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.
The investigation of the ground-water resources of Santa Barbara County was continued (luring 1954 in cooperation with the Santa Barbara County Wallet Agency. Monthly water-level measurements were made in 182 wells in 6 of which automatic water-level recorders were operated. Earlier measurements covering the period 1941 through 1952 have been published in U. S. Geological Survey water-supply papers; those for 1953 are in press and have already been released locally in duplicated form. Water-Supply Paper 1068 contains tabulated descriptions for 2,246 wells in existence in 1942 in the various ground-water basins of the county. The same publication contains also many water-level measurements made prior to 1942 by the city of Santa Barbara, Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District, San Joaquin Power Division of the Pacific GAB and Electric Co., Union Sugar Co., Union Oil Co., and other organizations and individuals. Comprehensive reports on the geology and ground-water resources of the Santa Time River basin (Upson and Thomasson, 1951), the south-coast basins (Upson, 1951), the Santa Maria Valley area (Worts, 1951), and the Cuyama Valley (Upson and Worts, 1951) have been published as Water-Supply Papers 1107, 1108 100U. and 1110-B respectively. In October 1952 "Reports on stream runoff and ground-water storage capacity, Santa Ynez River, Santa Barbara Count, Calif.," prepared respectively by Messrs. H. C. Troxell of the Surface Water Branch and H. D. Wilson, Jr., of the Ground hater Branch, U. S. Geological Survey, were released (Troxell and Wilson, 1952). In 1954 water-level measurements were made by the city of Santa Maria and the Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District, in addition to those made by the Geological Survey, and are included in this report.
Late Cenozoic basaltic volcanism in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico was most intense near the Rio Grande rift depression but extended onto stable platforms to the west (Colorado Plateau) and to the east (High Plains). Tholeiitic rocks are largely confined to the Rio Grande depression, and the basalts become increasingly alkalic with distance from the depression. The K, Th, and U contents and the Th/K and U/K ratios consistently increase away from the depression, and Th/U ratios also tend to increase slightly. Geographically distinct suites of petrographicaUy related basalts that are very similar in major-oxide compositions are readily distinguishable by K, Th, and U contents. Sialic crustal contamination did not contribute significantly to development of these compositional variations, and the lateral change from tholeiitic to alkalic basaltic volcanism may be related to different depths of or degrees of partial melting in the mantle. The compositions and compositional ranges of basalts in the southern Rocky Mountain region are similar to those of many Pacific islands, despite the contrasting geologic settings.
Investigation of the ground-water resources of Santa Barbara County was continued during 1958 by the U. S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Santa Barbara County Water Agency. Monthly water-level measurements were made in 201 wells, in 11 of which automatic water-level recorders were operated. Earlier measurements, covering the period 1941 through 1955, have been published in Geological Survey Water-Supply Papers; those for 1956 and 1957 have been released locally in duplicated form. Water-Supply Paper 1068 contains tabulated descriptions of 2,246 wells in existence in 1942 in the various ground-water basins of the county. The same publication also contains many water-level measurements made prior to 1942 by the city of Santa Barbara, Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District, San Joaquin Power Division of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co., Union Sugar Co., Union Oil Co., and other organizations and individuals. Comprehensive reports on the geology and ground-water resources of the Santa Ynez River basin (Upson and Thomasson, 1951), the south-coast basins (Upson, 1951), the Santa Maria Valley area (Worts, 1951), and the Cuyama Valley (Upson and Worts, 1951) have been published as Water-Supply Papers 1107, 1108, 1000, and 1110-B, respectively. A report on stream runoff and ground-water storage capacity of the Santa Ynez River valley (Troxell and Wilson, 1952) was released to the open file in October 1952. A report appraising the ground-water resources of the Santa Ynez River valley (Wilson, 1957) has been mimeographed and released locally. In addition to the water-level measurements made by the Geological Survey in 1958, measurements made by the Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District are included in this report. Not included in this report are miscellaneous measurements made by the Geological Survey in wells along the middle reach of the Santa Ynez River between Cachuma Dam and Rucker Crossing.
A recent workshop at the University of Washington focused on mathematical and computational aspects of modeling the dynamics of dense, gravity-driven mass movements such as rock avalanches and debris flows. About 30 participants came from seven countries and brought diverse backgrounds in geophysics; geology; physics; applied and computational mathematics; and civil, mechanical, and geotechnical engineering. The workshop was cosponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program, by the U.S. National Science Foundation through a Vertical Integration of Research and Education (VIGRE) in the Mathematical Sciences grant to the University of Washington, and by the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences. It began with a day of lectures open to the academic community at large and concluded with 2 days of focused discussions and collaborative work among the participants.
The Republic of the Marshall Islands (also known as the Marshall Islands) is a nation of more than 30 low-lying atolls and islands, most of which are inhabited, dispersed across an Exclusive Economic Zone over 770,000 square miles in the tropical central north Pacific Ocean. Monitoring environmental conditions for potential drought risk is challenging in such a dispersed island nation, and current drought hazard products provide generalities regarding conditions on a broad geographic scale. U.S. Geological Survey scientists and managers of natural resources and natural hazards in the Marshall Islands used Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (called “IMERG”) satellite estimates of precipitation to develop content and a template for timely monthly reporting of precipitation for 23 inhabited atolls and islands. The IMERG data are available in a U.S. Geological Survey data release at https://doi.org/10.5066/P95ANG3N . The monthly reports itself are available in a U.S. Geological Survey data release at https://doi.org/10.5066/P90J1426 . This Data Report describes the collaboration process and results of developing the report content and layout.
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Results of recent potassium-argon age studies in the Chignik region, Alaska, (Wilson, 1980; Wilson and others, 1982) have suggested a distinct episodicity in igneous activity during Tertiary time. To date work on the Aleutian magmatic arc indicates that plutonic activity took place along the present outer Pacific margin and in the northern Alaska-Aleutian Range batholith (Reed and Lanphere, 1973; Kienle and Turner, 1976; DeLong and others, 1978) in latest Cretaceous and earliest Tertiary time (70-58 m.y.) and was followed by a hiatus lasting until late Eocene ( 45 m.y~) time. Late Eocene to earliest Miocene ( 45-20 m.y.) magmatic activity was followed by a middle Miocene hiatus (10 m.y.). Since that time, magmatic activity in the Aleutian arc has been continuous.
Libraries of digital flood-inundation maps that spanned a combined 37.2-mile reach of the Meramec River that extended upstream from Eureka, Missouri, to downstream near the confluence of the Meramec and Mississippi Rivers were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District, Missouri Department of Transportation, Missouri American Water, Federal Emergency Management Agency Region 7, and the cities of Pacific, Eureka, Wildwood, and Arnold. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the cooperative USGS streamgages for the Meramec River near Eureka, Mo. (USGS station 07019000), the Meramec River at Valley Park, Mo. (USGS station 07019130), the Meramec River at Fenton, Mo. (USGS station 07019210), and the Meramec River at Arnold, Mo. (USGS station 07019300). Near-real-time stage data at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at these sites (listed as NWS sites erkm7, vllm7, fnnm7, and arnm7, respectively). Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a calibrated one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model. The model was calibrated using a stage-discharge relation at the Meramec River near Eureka, Mo., streamgage (USGS station 07019000) and documented high-water marks from the flood of December 2015 through January 2016. The calibrated hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles: 1 set for the Meramec River near Eureka, Mo., streamgage (USGS station 07019000); 1 set for the Meramec River at Valley Park, Mo., streamgage (USGS station 07019130); 7 sets for the Meramec River at Fenton, Mo., streamgage (USGS station 07019210) for a range of Mississippi River conditions; and 8 sets for the Meramec River at Arnold, Mo., streamgage (USGS station 07019300) for a range of Mississippi River conditions. The water-surface profiles were produced for stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the datum from each streamgage and ranging from the NWS action stage, or near bankfull discharge, to the stage corresponding to the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval) flood, as determined at the Meramec River near Eureka, Mo., streamgage (USGS station 07019000). The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.28-ft vertical accuracy and 3.28-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each simulated 1-ft stage increment. Previously published flood-inundation maps were updated and incorporated in the flood map libraries for USGS stations 07019130 and 07019210 to complete the map sets corresponding to eight Mississippi River conditions. The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures and for postflood recovery efforts.
Crater Lake partly fills one of the most spectacular calderas of the world, an 8-by-10-km basin more than 1 km deep formed by collapse of the volcano known as Mount Mazama (fig. 1) during a rapid series of explosive eruptions about 7,700 years ago. Having a maximum depth of 594 m, Crater Lake is the deepest lake in the United States. Crater Lake National Park, dedicated in 1902, encompasses 645 km2 of pristine forested and alpine terrain, including the lake itself, virtually all of Mount Mazama, and most of the area of the geologic map. The geology of the area was first described in detail by Diller and Patton (1902) and later by Williams (1942), whose vivid account led to international recognition of Crater Lake as the classic collapse caldera. Because of excellent preservation and access, Mount Mazama, Crater Lake caldera, and the deposits formed by the climactic eruption constitute a natural laboratory for study of volcanic and magmatic processes. For example, the climactic ejecta are renowned among volcanologists as evidence for systematic compositional zonation within a subterranean magma chamber. Mount Mazama's climactic eruption also is important as the source of the widespread Mazama ash, a useful Holocene stratigraphic marker throughout the Pacific Northwest, adjacent Canada, and offshore. A detailed bathymetric survey of the floor of Crater Lake in 2000 (Bacon and others, 2002) provides a unique record of postcaldera eruptions, the interplay between volcanism and filling of the lake, and sediment transport within this closed basin. Knowledge of the geology and eruptive history of the Mount Mazama edifice, greatly enhanced by the caldera wall exposures, gives exceptional insight into how large volcanoes of magmatic arcs grow and evolve. Lastly, the many smaller volcanoes of the High Cascades beyond the limits of Mount Mazama are a source of information on the flux of mantle-derived magma through the region. General principles of magmatic and eruptive processes revealed by the present study have been incorporated not only in scientific investigations elsewhere, but in the practical evaluation of hazards (Bacon and others, 1997b) and geothermal resources (Bacon and Nathenson, 1996) in the Crater Lake region. In addition to papers in scientific journals, field trip guides, and the hazard and geothermal reports, the major product of this long-term study of Mount Mazama is the geologic map. The map is unusual because it portrays bedrock (outcrop), surficial, and lake floor geology. Caldera wall geology is depicted in detail on the accompanying geologic panoramas.
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Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human effects, in several locations beaches that had been rapidly prograding are now either prograding at a slower rate or eroding. The average rate of short-term shoreline change in the PNW was also progradational at a rate of 0.9 m/yr with an uncertainty of 0.03 m/yr. This rate is based on 9,087 individual transects, of which 44 percent was determined to be eroding. Similar to the results of the long-term shoreline change analysis, the shorelines in Washington were typically more progradational than those in Oregon in the short term. However, many stretches of coast in Oregon are either less accretional, changed from accretional to erosional, or more erosional when comparing the long- and short-term rate calculations. In the long and short term, there are significantly different historical shoreline change trends for beaches deriving their modern sediments from the Columbia River in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon, and beaches elsewhere in the PNW. The majority of shorelines in Oregon and in Washington’s Olympic Peninsula are not influenced by the human effects to the Columbia River littoral cell and typically have not experienced the human-induced century-scale trends apparent in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon. An increase in erosion hazards in much of Oregon may be related to the effects of sea-level rise and increasing storm wave heights. Of importance, particularly in the short term, is the alongshore variability in land uplift rates due to tectonics, which results in an alongshore varying rate of relative sea level rise that appears to at least partially control the regional variability in short-term shoreline change rates. Other climate related processes, such as the occurrence of major El Niño events, also significantly affect the shoreline changes in the region. Major El Niño events elevate monthly mean sea levels by tens of centimeters throughout the winter and produce a shift in the storm tracks, resulting in alongshore redistributions in sand volumes on the beaches, leading to hotspot beach erosion and property losses north of headlands and tidal inlets to bays and estuaries. There are limited modern-day sources of sand to Oregon’s beaches, with much of the sand being relict in having arrived thousands of years ago at a time of lowered sea levels when headlands did not prevent the alongshore movement of the beach sediments, the result being that many beaches today are deficient in sand volumes and therefore do not provide sufficient buffer protection to backshore properties during winter storms.
The landscapes beneath Montana’s big sky are as breathtaking as the State’s nickname would suggest. Visitors to the 41st State's "Big Sky Country" can take in the stunning icy hues of aquamarine at Glacier National Park; explore the northern swaths of Yellowstone National Park; or hike, bike, or boat through Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, and those are just the National parks. Montana is the fourth-largest State by land area, with miles upon miles of forests, rolling prairie rangelands, croplands, badlands, and mountains, from which flow a sizable part of the Nation’s water supply. The headwaters of the Missouri River, which covers 2,341 miles before merging with the Mississippi River, are located in Three Forks, Montana. On the opposite side of the Continental Divide, the Kootenai, Clark Fork, Blackfoot, Bitterroot, and Flathead Rivers flow across Montana and into the Columbia River, which ultimately empties into the Pacific Ocean. The Treasure State’s cherished landscapes face many threats, however: fire-fueling invasive grasses, increasing temperatures caused by climate change, shifting land use patterns, water supply contractions, and more. The U.S. Geological Survey Landsat satellite program’s imagery can improve Montanans’ understanding of land change and offer valuable insight for the ranchers, farmers, land and resource managers, firefighters, and urban planners.