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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS1984

A workshop model simulating fate and effect of drilling muds and cuttings on benthic communities

Oil and gas exploration and production at marine sites has generated concern over potential environmental impacts resulting from the discharge of spent drilling muds and cuttings. This concern has led to a broad array of publicly and privately sponsored research. This report described a cooperative modeling effort designed to focus information resulting from this research through construction of explicit equations that simulate the potential impacts of discharge drilling fluids (muds) and cuttings on marine communities. The model is the result of collaboration among more than 30 scientists. The principal cooperating organizations were the E.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Minerals Management Service, the Offshore Operators Committee, and the Alaska Oil and Gas Association. The overall simulation model can be conceptualized as three connected submodels: Discharge and Plume Fate, Sediment Redistribution, and Benthic Community Effects. On each day of simulation, these submodels are executed in sequence, with flows of information between submodels. The Benthic Community Effects submodel can be further divided into sections that calculate mortality due to burial, mortality due to toxicity, mortality due to resuspension disturbance, and growth of the community. The model represents a series of seven discrete 1-m 2 plots at specified distances along a transect in one direction away from a discharge point. It consists of coupled difference equations for which parameter values can easily be set to evaluate different conditions or to examine the sensitivity of output to various assumptions. Sets of parameter values were developed to represent four general cases or scenarios: (1) a shallow (5 m), cold environment with ice cover during a substantial fraction of the year, such as might be encountered in the Beaufort Sea, Alaska; (2) a shallow (20 m), temperate environment, such as might be encountered in the Gulf of Mexico; (3) a deeper (80 m), temperate environment, such as might be encountered in the Gulf of Mexico; and (4) a very deep (1,000 m) environment, such as might be encountered on the Atlantic slope. The focus of the modeling effort was on the connection of a reasonable representation of physical fate to the biological responses of populations, rather than on highly detailed representations of individual processes. For example, the calculations of physical fate are not as detailed as those in the recently published model of Brandsma et al. (1983). The value of the model described herein is in the broad scope of processes that are explicitly represented and linked together. The model cannot be considered to produce reliable predictions of the quantitative impacts of discharged drilling fluids and cuttings on biological populations at a particular site. Limitations of the model in predicting integrated fate and effects can be traced to three general areas: level of refinement of the algorithms used in the model; lack of understanding of the processes determining fate and effects; and parameter and data values. Despite the limitations, several qualitative conclusions concerning both potential impacts and the importance of various remaining data gaps can be drawn from the modeling effort. These include: (1) Simple, unequivocal conclusions about fate and effects across geographical regions and drilling operations are difficult, if not misleading, due to the large amount of variability in characteristics of discharged materials (e.g., oil content and toxicity), discharge conditions (e.g., duration of drilling operations), physical environments (e.g., water depth, current direction, and sediment disturbance regimes), and biological communities (e.g., intrinsic growth rates). Different combinations of these characteristics can result in substantial differences in simulated environmental fate and biological effects. For examples, simulated recovery in some high-energy environments occurs within months after the cessation of discharge operations, even at heavily impacted sites, whereas simulated recover in some low-energy environments takes years at heavily impacted sites. <2) Considerable difficulties remain in the reliable extrapolation of results from laboratory toxicity experiments to predictions of population effects in the field. (3) The volume of material discharged and duration of operations in the production drilling operations simulated by the model are sufficient to produce substantial simulated biological impacts at some plots, both in terms of differences from a control plot during the period of discharge operations, and in terms of the recovery period following the perturbations. Evaluation of the significance of potential effects involves the following factors: • Definition of a specific spatial and temporal reference frame (e.g., What is the natural variation? Is 1 year to be considered a "long" or "short" time? Is 50 m to be considered a "large" or "trivial" distance? • Consideration of rare or unique resources and particularly sensitive biotic assemblages. • Consideration of the potential for long term, cumulative effects. Some of these aspects are clearly beyond the scope of this modeling efforts (e.g., the model does not simulate the long term fate of resuspended material). The model does, however, contain an internal "reference frame" by comparison to simulated behavior at a control plot. The model, in general, simulates substantial "natural" variation at the reference or control plots, both over time, due to sediment disturbance events in medium to high energy environments, and over space, due to geographically varying conditions, such as water depth and current regime.

Report↗
USGS2006

StreamVOC - A deterministic source-apportionment model to estimate volatile organic compound concentrations in rivers and streams

This report documents the construction and verification of the model, StreamVOC, that estimates (1) the time- and position-dependent concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in rivers and streams as well as (2) the source apportionment (SA) of those concentrations. The model considers how different types of sources and loss processes can act together to yield a given observed VOC concentration. Reasons for interest in the relative and absolute contributions of different sources to contaminant concentrations include the need to apportion: (1) the origins for an observed contamination, and (2) the associated human and ecosystem risks. For VOCs, sources of interest include the atmosphere (by absorption), as well as point and nonpoint inflows of VOC-containing water. Loss processes of interest include volatilization to the atmosphere, degradation, and outflows of VOC-containing water from the stream to local ground water. This report presents the details of StreamVOC and compares model output with measured concentrations for eight VOCs found in the Aberjona River at Winchester, Massachusetts. Input data for the model were obtained during a synoptic study of the stream system conducted July 11-13, 2001, as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The input data included a variety of basic stream characteristics (for example, flows, temperature, and VOC concentrations). The StreamVOC concentration results agreed moderately well with the measured concentration data for several VOCs and provided compound-dependent SA estimates as a function of longitudinal distance down the river. For many VOCs, the quality of the agreement between the model-simulated and measured concentrations could be improved by simple adjustments of the model input parameters. In general, this study illustrated: (1) the considerable difficulty of quantifying correctly the locations and magnitudes of ground-water-related sources of contamination in streams; and (2) that model-based estimates of stream VOC concentrations are likely to be most accurate when the major sources are point sources or tributaries where the spatial extent and magnitude of the sources are tightly constrained and easily determined.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2003

Simulated ground-water flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, Rosebud Indian Reservation area, South Dakota

The Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers are important water resources in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area and are used extensively for irrigation, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Continued or increased withdrawals from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area have the potential to affect water levels in these aquifers. This report describes a conceptual model of ground-water flow in these aquifers and documents the development and calibration of a numerical model to simulate ground-water flow. Data for a twenty-year period (water years 1979 through 1998) were analyzed for the conceptual model and included in steady-state and transient numerical simulations of ground-water flow for the same 20-year period. A three-dimensional ground-water flow model, with two layers, was used to simulate ground-water flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers. The upper layer represented the Ogallala aquifer, and the lower layer represented the Arikaree aquifer. The study area was divided into grid blocks 1,640 feet (500 meters) on a side, with 153 rows and 180 columns. Areal recharge to the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers occurs from precipitation on the outcrop areas. The recharge rate for the steady-state simulation was 3.3 inches per year for the Ogallala aquifer and 1.7 inches per year for the Arikaree aquifer for a total recharge rate of 266 cubic feet per second. Discharge from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams, and well withdrawals. Discharge rates in cubic feet per second for the steady-state simulation were 184 for evapotranspiration, 46.8 and 19.7 for base flow to the Little White and Keya Paha Rivers, respectively, and 11.6 for well withdrawals from irrigation use. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity used for the numerical model ranged from 0.2 to 120 feet per day in the Ogallala aquifer and 0.1 to 5.4 feet per day in the Arikaree aquifer. A uniform vertical hydraulic conductivity value of 6.6x10 -4 feet per day was applied to the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical hydraulic conductivity was estimated for five zones in the Arikaree aquifer and ranged from 8.6x10 -6 to 7.2x10 -1 feet per day. Average rates of recharge, maximum evapotranspiration, and well withdrawals were included in the steady-state simulation, whereas the time-varying rates were included in the transient simulation. Model calibration was accomplished by varying parameters within plausible ranges to produce the best fit between simulated and observed hydraulic heads and base-flow discharges from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers. For the steady-state simulation, the root mean square error for simulated hydraulic heads for all wells was 26.8 feet. Simulated hydraulic heads were within ±50 feet of observed values for 95 percent of the wells. For the transient simulation, the difference between the simulated and observed means for hydrographs was within ±40 feet for all observation wells. The potentiometric surfaces of the two aquifers calculated by the steady-state simulation established initial conditions for the transient simulation. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated steady-state model to changes in model parameters including horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, evapotranspiration, recharge, and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and horizontal hydraulic conductivity.

South Dakota↗
USGS2007

Comprehensive Areal Model of Earthquake-Induced Landslides: Technical Specification and User Guide

This report describes the complete design of a comprehensive areal model of earthquakeinduced landslides (CAMEL). This report presents the design process, technical specification of CAMEL. It also provides a guide to using the CAMEL source code and template ESRI ArcGIS map document file for applying CAMEL, both of which can be obtained by contacting the authors. CAMEL is a regional-scale model of earthquake-induced landslide hazard developed using fuzzy logic systems. CAMEL currently estimates areal landslide concentration (number of landslides per square kilometer) of six aggregated types of earthquake-induced landslides - three types each for rock and soil.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1997

Water and salt balance of Great Salt Lake, Utah, and simulation of water and salt movement through the causeway

The water and salt balance of Great Salt Lake primarily depends on the amount of inflow from tributary streams and the conveyance properties of a causeway constructed during 1957-59 that divides the lake into the south and north parts. The conveyance properties of the causeway originally included two culverts, each 15 feet wide, and the permeable rock-fill material. During 1980-86, the salt balance changed as a result of record high inflow that averaged 4,627,000 acre-feet annually and modifications made to the conveyance properties of the causeway that included opening a 300-foot-wide breach. In this study, a model developed in 1973 by Waddell and Bolke to simulate the water and salt balance of the lake was revised to accommodate the high water-surface altitude and modifications made to the causeway. This study, done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of State Lands and Forestry, updates the model with monitoring data collected during 1980-86. This report describes the calibration of the model and presents the results of simulations for three hypothetical 10-year periods. During January 1, 1980, to July 31, 1984, a net load of 0.5 billion tons of dissolved salt flowed from the south to the north part of the lake primarily as a result of record inflows. From August 1, 1984, when the breach was opened, to December 31,1986, a net load of 0.3 billion tons of dissolved salt flowed from the north to the south part of the lake primarily as a result of the breach. For simulated inflow rates during a hypothetical 10-year period resulting in the water-surface altitude decreasing from about 4,200 to 4,192 feet, there was a net movement of about 1.0 billion tons of dissolved salt from the south to the north part, and about 1.7 billion tons of salt precipitated in the north part. For simulated inflow rates during a hypothetical 10-year period resulting in a rise in water-surface altitude from about 4,200 to 4,212 feet, there was a net movement of about 0.2 billion tons of dissolved salt from the south to the north part and no salt was precipitated in the north part of the lake.

Utah↗
USGS2024

Quantifying potential effects of China’s gallium and germanium export restrictions on the U.S. economy

China’s export controls on gallium and germanium exemplify concerns regarding the reliability of supplies of mineral commodities that are essential to economic development, national security, and transition to renewable energy. This report presents a new model that quantifies the potential effects of mineral commodity supply disruptions on the U.S. economy. After calculating postdisruption equilibrium prices and quantities, a nonlinear optimization routine was used along with economic input-output tables to estimate the effects of varying Chinese net export restrictions of gallium and germanium on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The results indicated that a complete restriction of China’s net exports of gallium and germanium could cause the U.S. GDP to decrease by $3.1 billion (with lower and upper estimates of $1.7 billion to $8.2 billion) and $0.4 billion ($0.01 billion to $1.1 billion), respectively, if disrupted separately, and $3.4 billion ($1.7 billion to $9.0 billion) if disrupted simultaneously. The proposed model can be applied to other commodities and disruption scenarios.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon research and monitoring

In Chapter 1, we report on development and application of an integrated population model (IPM) for the natural-origin fall Chinook salmon population upstream of Lower Granite Dam. This year’s efforts represent the third update to the model. Initial efforts focused on generating juvenile and adult abundance estimates, with estimates of uncertainty, for informing the life-cycle model and estimating the effects of covariates on key demographic parameters. The goals of this year’s report are to 1) describe the modifications and advances made since the previous report, 2) to annually update and report the abundance estimates and other quantities used in the model, 3) to provide annual estimates of population parameters estimated by the IPM, and 4) to outline the next year’s tasks for advancing and/or applying the model. Since our last report on the life-cycle model, we have made a number of changes including: 1) incorporating jack abundance and age-structure data into the observation model, 2) changing smolt-to-adult survival (SAR) for subyearling and yearling to partial SARs that represent the joint probability surviving and entering the ocean at a given juvenile age, 3) combining age categories for rarely observed ages, 4) using scale data from unmarked fish to estimate age structure, and 5) generating composite life-cycle demographic parameters (cumulative capacity and productivity) from stage-specific parameters. We also generated juvenile abundance estimates, extended the model to include three additional brood years (1992– 2021), and ran the model to forecast returns to Lower Granite in 2022. For posterior medians of life stage-specific parameters, we estimated a mean productivity of 438 natural-origin juvenile recruits per female spawner, a capacity of 1.36 million juveniles, and a mean smolt-to-adult survival (SAR) of 1.2%. We detected strong density-dependent regulation, with juvenile recruits per spawner declining to about 50 juvenile recruits per female spawner at high spawner abundance. Across the entire life cycle, these stage-specific parameters resulted in a median cumulative intrinsic productivity of 1.93 adult female recruits per female spawner and a median equilibrium abundance of 2,851 female spawners (7,842 total spawners). Annual juvenile productivity varied from about 250–1,000 juveniles per spawner but displayed no temporal trends or patterns. For the three most recent brood years added to the model, recruits per spawner were higher than average but well within the range of uncertainty observed over the entire time series. In contrast to juvenile recruitment variability, SAR varied considerably among years and exhibited two periods of high survival (1996–2001 and 2007–2012) when SAR ranged from 2% to 6% and cumulative productivity ranged from 2 to 8 recruits per spawner. Partial SARs revealed that yearling outmigrants contributed substantially to the high SARs in the first high-survival period, but the second period was dominated by subyearlings. Yearlings contributed >30% to SAR in most years prior to 2007, and <30% since 2007. Our two-stage IPM provides a wealth of information about population dynamics affecting two key life-stage transitions (spawner to juvenile, and juvenile to spawner) centered on passage at Lower Granite Dam. By summarizing these stage-specific demographic parameters across the entire life cycle, this information will be useful for informing the recovery status of this threatened population. Whereas previous versions introduced hydrosystem and ocean covariates into the model, this phase of model development focused on solidifying the underlying model structure by introducing the concept of partial SARs and developing composite productivity and capacity as a function of underlying stage-specific parameters. Given this advancement, our next steps are to re-incorporate covariates into the model, specifically to understand how different factors affect partial SARs of subyearling and yearlings. Longer term model developments include:1) incorporating hatchery fish to explicitly estimate their survival as an alternative method for estimating natural-origin age composition, 2) expanding the model’s structure to include the three major spawning aggregates, 3) more explicitly modeling hydrosystem effects including transportation, and 4) using the model to assess retrospective and prospective management actions. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) focused adult salmon survey efforts in the Snake River on deepwater redd searches and fish collection for parentage-based tagging (PBT) analyses. We use used a boat-mounted underwater video camera to count 99 deepwater redds at 16 of the 29 sites surveyed. Redd depths averaged 4.4 m. In conjunction with the Idaho Power Company, we collected genetic samples from 318 live fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and 19 carcasses at 40 unique geographic locations that spanned 91 river kilometers. Eighty fish were collected at three sites (High Range [rkm 332.3], Dug Bar [rkm 315.4], and Three Creek [rkm 384.0]), which accounted for 23% of all collected fish in 2022. Most (333 fish) post-spawned salmon were collected from early to mid-November just after the peak of spawning. A summary of 2021 PBT results produced by the Idaho Power Company can be found in Appendix A.2. Beach seining and PIT tagging of subyearling fall Chinook salmon was conducted in Snake and Salmon rivers to obtain information on population metrics and growth as well as to provide data for ongoing life-cycle modeling. In the Snake River, we collected 7,496 subyearlings, tagged 4,139, and recaptured 502 (12.1%). Using 8-mm tags in 45–49-mm fish allowed us to represent an additional 25% of the juvenile population through PIT tagging beyond just using standard 9- and 12-mm tags. In the Salmon River, we captured 206 natural subyearlings with the majority (52%) of fish being captured at two sites: rkm 20 and 26. We tagged 145 subyearlings and recaptured 9 fish. Many of the subyearlings we tagged in the Snake River were detected passing Lower Granite Dam, but only 4 fish tagged in the Salmon River were detected. In total we detected 484 (11.3%) tagged fish at Lower Granite Dam, and detection rates varied by tag size and passage route. More subyearlings were detected passing via the removable spill weir (RSW) earlier in the season while more fish were detected passing through the juvenile fish bypass system (JBS) earlier in the season while more fish were detected passing via the removable spill weir (RSW) later in the season. In general, fish tagged with 12-mm PIT tags had higher detection rates than fish tagged with smaller tags. Survival to Lower Granite Dam was low and ranged from 0.22 to 0.36. Season-wide, growth of subyearlings was higher in the lower reach than in the upper reach of the Snake River.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2017

Building a state-space life cycle model for naturally produced Snake River fall Chinook salmon

In 1992, Snake River basin fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were listed for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (NMFS 1992) and the population remained below 1000 individuals until 2000. Since then, returns from natural production has rebounded to over 20,000 spawners owing to a host of factors including reduced harvest (Peters et al. 2001), stable minimum spawning flows (Groves and Chandler 1999), summer flow augmentation (Connor et al. 2003), predator control (Beamesderfer et al. 1996), hatchery supplementation (Rosenberger et al. 2017), improved juvenile passage structures (Adams et al. 2014), summer spill operations (Perry et al. 2006; Adams et al. 2008), and periods of favorable ocean conditions and food availability (Logerwell et al. 2003; Peterson et al. 2014). Given this change in abundance coincident with numerous management actions and fluctuation in environmental drivers, quantifying which factors contributed to the observed rebound in natural production can provide critical insights into future management actions for this at-risk population. Multistage life cycle models provide a powerful analytical framework for understating how each life stage of a population contributes to population growth rate (Moussalli and Hilborn 1986; Greene and Beechie 2004). Multistage models may also be used as an analytical framework to explicitly estimate demographic parameters of a population model. This approach has an advantage over single-stage stock-recruitment models by allowing population growth rates to be partitioned among life stages rather than aggregated over an entire life cycle. Such partitioning allows for estimating 1) stage-specific density dependence, and 2) stage-specific effects of environmental factors or management actions. For example, Zabel et al. (2006) estimated parameters of a multistage model used in the context of a population viability analysis for spring/summer Chinook salmon in the Snake River, but such an approach has yet to be applied to fall Chinook salmon in the Snake River basin. Typically, data informing estimates of abundance at particular “check points” in the life cycle determines the complexity of the multistage model that can be fit to the data. For fall Chinook salmon, we are developing a two-stage model that encompasses: 1) upstream passage of spawners at Lower Granite Dam (LGR) to the subsequent downstream passage of their progeny at the dam, and 2) downstream passage of juveniles at LGR to their subsequent return from the ocean and passage at the Dam 2‒6 years later. This approach partitions the life cycle of fall Chinook salmon both spatially and temporally, which allows us to fit and compare alternative models with covariates specific to each stage. Our previous report to the ISAB (Zabel et al. 2013) detailed methods for estimating abundance of naturally produced adults and juveniles passing Lower Granite Dam, which provides the requisite data for fitting a two-stage model. The intent of this report is to describe the structure of the two-stage life cycle model, present preliminary results from fitting the model to data, and outline future directions and developments. As is clear from the diversity of models presented in this report, “life cycle models” range from very simple theoretically based population models (e.g., the Beverton-Holt stock- recruitment model) to very complex spatially explicit simulation models linked to hydrosystem hydrodynamic models (e.g., the COMPASS model for a single transition in a life cycle model, Zabel et al. 2008). We chose to develop a model of intermediate complexity that casts the two- stage life cycle model in a state-space framework (Newman et al. 2014). We chose to use a state-space framework implemented in a Bayesian framework because: • It provides both a statistical estimation framework for retrospective statistical analysis and a stochastic simulation framework for prospective analysis to evaluate alternative management actions. • Abundance estimates are uncertain. A state-space framework accounts for observation uncertainty in the abundance estimates and other data (e.g., age structure) while simultaneously estimating process uncertainty. • It allows for missing data. By drawing missing data from an appropriate probability model, uncertainty owing to missing data can be propagated without having to omit data or assume fixed values for missing data. Thus, a two-stage state-space life cycle model for fall Chinook salmon strikes an appropriate balance between model complexity, tractability, and applicability given the goals of performing both retrospective and prospective analysis to guide future management of this population.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming↗
USGS2004

A statistical model and national data set for partioning fish-tissue mercury concentration variation between spatiotemporal and sample characteristic effects

Many Federal, Tribal, State, and local agencies monitor mercury in fish-tissue samples to identify sites with elevated fish-tissue mercury (fish-mercury) concentrations, track changes in fish-mercury concentrations over time, and produce fish-consumption advisories. Interpretation of such monitoring data commonly is impeded by difficulties in separating the effects of sample characteristics (species, tissues sampled, and sizes of fish) from the effects of spatial and temporal trends on fish-mercury concentrations. Without such a separation, variation in fish-mercury concentrations due to differences in the characteristics of samples collected over time or across space can be misattributed to temporal or spatial trends; and/or actual trends in fish-mercury concentration can be misattributed to differences in sample characteristics. This report describes a statistical model and national data set (31,813 samples) for calibrating the aforementioned statistical model that can separate spatiotemporal and sample characteristic effects in fish-mercury concentration data. This model could be useful for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in fishmercury concentrations and developing fish-consumption advisories. The observed fish-mercury concentration data and model predictions can be accessed, displayed geospatially, and downloaded via the World Wide Web (http://emmma.usgs.gov). This report and the associated web site may assist in the interpretation of large amounts of data from widespread fishmercury monitoring efforts.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Conditional, time-dependent probabilities for segmented Type-A faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2

This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the main part of this report.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Fort Collins Science Center

The U.S. Geological Survey's Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) is one of 17 USGS biological science centers nationwide. FORT conducts research and develops technical applications to assist land managers in understanding and managing biological resources, habitats, and ecosystems. Although the majority of FORT's activities are conducted within the 15-state Central Region of the USGS, many FORT projects are national or international in scope. FORT serves all Department of the Interior land management bureaus and other natural resource agencies. In addition, FORT scientists partner with DOI and other federal entities such as CDC, DOE, EPA, NASA, NIH, and USDA to share expertise and resources. FORT also partners with several universities and works cooperatively with states and nongovernmental organizations. Products and services include reports and publications, predictive models and software, maps and GIS products, and other technical assistance in the form of meetings, workshops, training, field visits, and needs assessments.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2004

Inhibition and enhancement of microbial surface colonization: the role of silicate composition

Classical treatment of cell attachment by models of filtration or coulombic attraction assumes that attachment of cells to mineral surfaces would be controlled by factors such as response to predation, collision efficiency, or coulombic attraction between the charged groups at the mineral and cell surfaces. In the study reported here, the passive model of attachment was investigated using a native microbial consortium and a variety of Al- and Fe-bearing silicates and oxides to determine if other controls, such as mineral composition, also influence the interaction between cells and surfaces. Results from in situ colonization studies in an anaerobic groundwater at pH 6.8 combined with most probable number analyses (MPN) of surface-adherent cells demonstrate that electrostatic effects dominate microbial colonization on positively charged oxide surfaces regardless of mineral composition. In contrast, on negatively charged silicate minerals and glasses, the solid phase composition is a factor in determining the extent of microbial colonization, as well as the diversity of the attached community. In particular, silicates containing more than 1.2% Al exhibit less biomass than Al-poor silicates and MPN suggests a shift in community diversity, possibly indicating Al toxicity on these surfaces. When Fe is present in the silicate, however, this trend is reversed and abundant colonization of the surface is observed. Here, microorganisms preferentially colonize those silicate surfaces that offer beneficial nutrients and avoid those that contain potentially toxic elements.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2015

Estimation of monthly water yields and flows for 1951-2012 for the United States portion of the Great Lakes Basin with AFINCH

Monthly water yields from 105,829 catchments and corresponding flows in 107,691 stream segments were estimated for water years 1951&ndash;2012 in the Great Lakes Basin in the United States. Both sets of estimates were computed by using the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) application within the NHDPlus geospatial data framework. AFINCH provides an environment to develop constrained regression models to integrate monthly streamflow and water-use data with monthly climatic data and fixed basin characteristics data available within NHDPlus or supplied by the user. For this study, the U.S. Great Lakes Basin was partitioned into seven study areas by grouping selected hydrologic subregions and adjoining cataloguing units. This report documents the regression models and data used to estimate monthly water yields and flows in each study area. Estimates of monthly water yields and flows are presented in a Web-based mapper application. Monthly flow time series for individual stream segments can be retrieved from the Web application and used to approximate monthly flow-duration characteristics and to identify possible trends.

Great Lakes Basin↗
USGS2021

Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

What is already known about this topic? Increases in COVID-19 cases in March and early April occurred despite a large-scale vaccination program. Increases coincided with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants and relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). What is added by this report? Data from six models indicate that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021. Lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage. What are the implications for public health practice? High vaccination coverage and compliance with NPIs are essential to control COVID-19 and prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report↗
USGS2009

Effect of detention basin release rates on flood flows: Application of a model to the Blackberry Creek Watershed in Kane County, Illinois

The effects of stormwater detention basins with specified release rates are examined on the watershed scale with a Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) continuous-simulation model. Modeling procedures for specifying release rates from detention basins with orifice and weir discharge configurations are discussed in this report. To facilitate future detention modeling as a tool for watershed management, a chart relating watershed impervious area to detention volume is presented. The report also presents a case study of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Ill., a rapidly urbanizing area seeking to avoid future flood damages from increased urbanization, to illustrate the effects of various detention basin release rates on flood peaks and volumes and flood frequencies. The case study compares flows simulated with a 1996 land-use HSPF model to those simulated with four different 2020 projected land-use HSPF model scenarios - no detention, and detention basins with release rates of 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 cubic feet per second per acre (ft 3 /s-acre), respectively. Results of the simulations for 15 locations, which included the downstream ends of all tributaries and various locations along the main stem, showed that a release rate of 0.10 ft 3 /s-acre, in general, can maintain postdevelopment 100-year peak-flood discharge at a similar magnitude to that of 1996 land-use conditions. Although the release rate is designed to reduce the 100-year peak flow, reduction of the 2-year peak flow is also achieved for a smaller proportion of the peak. Results also showed that the 0.10 ft 3 /s-acre release rate was less effective in watersheds with relatively high percentages of preexisting (1996) development than in watersheds with less preexisting development.

Illinois↗
USGS2018

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗