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Analysis of stress-induced oval fractures in a borehole at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 504, eastern equatorial Pacific

Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Hole 504B is located in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and extends to a total depth of 2111 m beneath the seafloor (mbsf). Several acoustic televiewer logs have been obtained in this well during successive stages of drilling, and the resulting digital images have revealed numerous oval-shaped fractures seemingly etched into the borehole wall. A theoretical examination of these stress-induced features identifies a unique and ephemeral set of stress distributions and magnitudes that are necessary for their production. Consequently, the ovals provide a basis for quantifying the magnitudes and orientations of the maximum and minimum horizontal principal stresses, S H and S h at this site. Vertical, truncated breakouts and horizontal tensile fractures define the spatial boundaries of the ovals. Explicit criteria for their occurrence are combined with estimates for various physical properties of the rock to yield a range of possible values for the horizontal principal stresses. The conspicuous oval geometry is completed by a curved fracture that joins the vertical and horizontal components. Its degree of curvature is delineated by the modified Griffith failure criterion and is directly related to the principal stress difference ( S H − S h ). Matching a series of type curves corresponding to specific values for ( S H − S h ) with the actual undistorted well bore images allows the magnitude of the stress difference to be further constrained. With a value for ( S H − S h ) of 45 ± 5 MPa the individual magnitudes of S H and S h are determined more precisely. Final estimates for the horizontal principal stresses in DSDP Hole 504B at a depth of 1200 mbsf are 141 MPa ≤ S H ≤ 149 MPa and 91 MPa ≤ S h ≤ 109 MPa. Stress magnitudes derived from this approach rely heavily upon the values of a variety of physical properties, and complementary laboratory measurements performed on relevant rock samples provide critical information. Uncertainties in estimating these properties translate into less precise predictions of principal stresses.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Measurements of Reynolds stress profiles in unstratified tidal flow

In this paper we present a method for measuring profiles of turbulence quantities using a broadband acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP). The method follows previous work on the continental shelf and extends the analysis to develop estimates of the errors associated with the estimation methods. ADCP data was collected in an unstratified channel and the results of the analysis are compared to theory. This comparison shows that the method provides an estimate of the Reynolds stresses, which is unbiased by Doppler noise, and an estimate of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) which is biased by an amount proportional to the Doppler noise. The noise in each of these quantities as well as the bias in the TKE match well with the theoretical values produced by the error analysis. The quantification of profiles of Reynolds stresses simultaneous with the measurement of mean velocity profiles allows for extensive analysis of the turbulence of the flow. In this paper, we examine the relation between the turbulence and the mean flow through the calculation of u * , the friction velocity, and C d the coefficient of drag. Finally, we calculate quantities of particular interest in turbulence modeling and analysis, the characteristic lengthscales, including a lengthscale which represents the stream-wise scale of the eddies which dominate the Reynolds stresses.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Estimates of bottom roughness length and bottom shear stress in South San Francisco Bay, California

A field investigation of the hydrodynamics and the resuspension and transport of particulate matter in a bottom boundary layer was carried out in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay), California, during March-April 1995. Using broadband acoustic Doppler current profilers, detailed measurements of turbulent mean velocity distribution within 1.5 m above bed have been obtained. A global method of data analysis was used for estimating bottom roughness length z o and bottom shear stress (or friction velocities u * ). Field data have been examined by dividing the time series of velocity profiles into 24-hour periods and independently analyzing the velocity profile time series by flooding and ebbing periods. The global method of solution gives consistent properties of bottom roughness length z o and bottom shear stress values (or friction velocities u * ) in South Bay. Estimated mean values of z o and u * for flooding and ebbing cycles are different. The differences in mean z o and u * are shown to be caused by tidal current flood-ebb inequality, rather than the flooding or ebbing of tidal currents. The bed shear stress correlates well with a reference velocity; the slope of the correlation defines a drag coefficient. Forty-three days of field data in South Bay show two regimes of z o (and drag coefficient) as a function of a reference velocity. When the mean velocity is >25–30 cm s −1 , the ln z o (and thus the drag coefficient) is inversely proportional to the reference velocity. The cause for the reduction of roughness length is hypothesized as sediment erosion due to intensifying tidal currents thereby reducing bed roughness. When the mean velocity is <25–30 cm s −1 , the correlation between z o and the reference velocity is less clear. A plausible explanation of scattered values of z o under this condition may be sediment deposition. Measured sediment data were inadequate to support this hypothesis, but the proposed hypothesis warrants further field investigation.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Does Europa have a subsurface ocean? Evaluation of the geological evidence

It has been proposed that Jupiter's satellite Europa currently possesses a global subsurface ocean of liquid water. Galileo gravity data verify that the satellite is differentiated into an outer H 2 O layer about 100 km thick but cannot determine the current physical state of this layer (liquid or solid). Here we summarize the geological evidence regarding an extant subsurface ocean, concentrating on Galileo imaging data. We describe and assess nine pertinent lines of geological evidence: impact morphologies, lenticulae, cryovolcanic features, pull‐apart bands, chaos, ridges, surface frosts, topography, and global tectonics. An internal ocean would be a simple and comprehensive explanation for a broad range of observations; however, we cannot rule out the possibility that all of the surface morphologies could be due to processes in warm, soft ice with only localized or partial melting. Two different models of impact flux imply very different surface ages for Europa; the model favored here indicates an average age of ∼50 Myr. Searches for evidence of current geological activity on Europa, such as plumes or surface changes, have yielded negative results to date. The current existence of a global subsurface ocean, while attractive in explaining the observations, remains inconclusive. Future geophysical measurements are essential to determine conclusively whether or not there is a liquid water ocean within Europa today.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets

Digital mapping of the Mars Pathfinder landing site: Design, acquisition, and derivation of cartographic products for science applications

The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) acquired more than 16,000 images and provided panoramic views of the surface of Mars at the Mars Pathfinder landing site in Ares Vallis. This paper describes the stereoscopic, multispectral IMP imaging sequences and focuses on their use for digital mapping of the landing site and for deriving cartographic products to support science applications of these data. Two‐dimensional cartographic processing of IMP data, as performed via techniques and specialized software developed for ISIS (the U.S. Geological Survey image processing software package), is emphasized. Cartographic processing of IMP data includes ingestion, radiometric correction, establishment of geometric control, coregistration of multiple bands, reprojection, and mosaicking. Photogrammetric processing, an integral part of this cartographic work which utilizes the three‐dimensional character of the IMP data, supplements standard processing with geometric control and topographic information [ Kirk et al. , this issue]. Both cartographic and photogrammetric processing are required for producing seamless image mosaics and for coregistering the multispectral IMP data. Final, controlled IMP cartographic products include spectral cubes, panoramic (360° azimuthal coverage) and planimetric (top view) maps, and topographic data, to be archived on four CD‐ROM volumes. Uncontrolled and semicontrolled versions of these products were used to support geologic characterization of the landing site during the nominal and extended missions. Controlled products have allowed determination of the topography of the landing site and environs out to ∼60 m, and these data have been used to unravel the history of large‐ and small‐scale geologic processes which shaped the observed landing site. We conclude by summarizing several lessons learned from cartographic processing of IMP data.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

P wave crustal velocity structure in the greater Mount Rainier area from local earthquake tomography

We present results from a local earthquake tomographic imaging experiment in the greater Mount Rainier area. We inverted P wave arrival times from local earthquakes recorded at permanent and temporary Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network seismographs between 1980 and 1996. We used a method similar to that described by Lees and Crosson [1989], modified to incorporate the parameter separation method for decoupling the hypocenter and velocity problems. In the upper 7 km of the resulting model there is good correlation between velocity anomalies and surface geology. Many focal mechanisms within the St. Helens seismic zone have nodal planes parallel to the epicentral trend as well as to a north-south trending low-velocity trough, leading us to speculate that the trough represents a zone of structural weakness in which a moderate ( M 6.5–7.0) earthquake could occur. In contrast, the western Rainier seismic zone does not correlate in any simple way with anomaly patterns or focal mechanism fault planes, leading us to infer that it is less likely to experience a moderate earthquake. A ∼10 km-wide low-velocity anomaly occurs 5 to 18 km beneath the summit of Mount Rainier, which we interpret to be a signal of a region composed of hot, fractured rock with possible small amounts of melt or fluid. No systematic velocity pattern is observed in association with the southern Washington Cascades conductor. A midcrustal anomaly parallels the Olympic-Wallowa lineament as well as several other geophysical trends, indicating that it may play an important role in regional tectonics.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults

We present a new three-dimensional inventory of the southern San Francisco Bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 M = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989. The major high-angle right-lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique (right-lateral/thrust) faults. Seismicity on oblique-slip faults in the southern Santa Clara Valley thrust belt increased where the faults were undamped. The strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction. In contrast, we observe that faults with significant offset (>50–100 km) behave differently; microseismicity on the Hayward fault diminished where right-lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was undamped by the Loma Prieta earthquake. We observe a similar response on the San Andreas fault zone in southern California after the Landers earthquake sequence. Additionally, the offshore San Gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right-lateral/oblique shear stress was increased by the Loma Prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it. These responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones. We can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup; coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes, whereas in more limited offset faults, fluids could rapidly escape. The difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes, since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Paleomagnetism of an east-west transect across the Cascade arc in southern Washington: Implications for regional tectonism

Paleomagnetic data from a transect across the Cascade arc in southern Washington were collected to test models of vertical axis rotations for this part of the Pacific Northwest and to provide information on the tectonic history of the St. Helens seismic zone. The 75 site-mean directions are divided into three groups based on isotopic, fission track, and stratigraphic ages. Group 1 consists of samples from rocks deposited between 39 and 30 Ma and shows a mean clockwise vertical axis rotation of 34° ± 13°, group 2 consists of samples from rocks deposited between 30 and 24 Ma and shows a mean clockwise rotation of 17° ± 11°, and group 3 consists of samples from rocks between 24 and 16 Ma and shows a mean clockwise rotation of 20° ± 12°. Although these three values of rotation are statistically indistinguishable at the 95% confidence level, we interpret them in combination with other data to indicate differential rotation across the St. Helens seismic zone (SHZ). The available paleomagnetic data for Eocene-Oligocene rocks west of the seismic zone show clockwise vertical axis rotations of 30° ± 8° and 35° ± 9° consistent with the value for group 1. The rotational values for groups 2 and 3 and the intrusive suite of Kidd Creek (13 Ma), despite their different ages, have similar values east of the SHZ. Comparing these groups of data east and west of the seismic zone indicates a differential rotation of 10° ± 3° across it. In addition, the rates of rotation in southern Washington are similar to those for rocks in the western Cascades of Oregon and indicate that rotational deformation of Miocene age extends northward into southern Washington and eastward into the axis of the arc.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Stress transfer by the 1988-1989 M=5.3 and 5.4 Lake Elsman foreshocks to the Loma Prieta fault: Unclamping at the site of peak mainshock slip

We study the stress transferred by the June 27, 1988, M = 5.3 and August 8, 1989, M = 5.4 Lake Elsman earthquakes, the largest events to strike within 15 km of the future Loma Prieta rupture zone during 74 years before the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. We find that the first Lake Elsman event brought the rupture plane of the second event 0.3–1.6 bars (0.03–0.16 MPa) closer to Coulomb failure but that the Lake Elsman events did not bring the future Loma Prieta hypocentral zone closer to failure. Instead, the Lake Elsman earthquakes are calculated to have reduced the normal stress on (or “undamped”) the Loma Prieta rupture surface by 0.5–1.0 bar (0.05–0.10 MPa) at the site where the greatest slip subsequently occurred in the Loma Prieta earthquake. This association between the sites of peak unclamping and slip suggests that the Lake Elsman events did indeed influence the Loma Prieta rupture process. Unclamping the fault would have locally lowered the resistance to sliding. Such an effect could have been enhanced if the lowered normal stress permitted fluid infusion into the undamped part of the fault. Although less well recorded, the M L = 5.0 1964 and M L = 5.3 1967 Corralitos events struck within 10 km of the southwest end of the future Loma Prieta rupture. No similar relationship between the normal stress change and subsequent Loma Prieta slip is observed, although the high-slip patch southwest of the Loma Prieta epicenter corresponds roughly to the site of calculated Coulomb stress increase for a low coefficient of friction. The Lake Elsman-Loma Prieta result is similar to that for the 1987 M = 6.2 Elmore Ranch and M = 6.7 Superstition Hills earthquakes, suggesting that foreshocks might influence the distribution of mainshock slip rather than the site of mainshock nucleation.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Three-dimensional velocity structure of Siletzia and other accreted terranes in the Cascadia forearc of Washington

Eocene mafic crust with high seismic velocities underlies much of the Oregon and Washington forearc and acts as a backstop for accretion of marine sedimentary rocks from the obliquely subducting Juan de Fuca slab. Arc-parallel migration of relatively strong blocks of this terrane, known as Siletzia, focuses upper crustal deformation along block boundaries, which are potential sources of earthquakes. In a three-dimensional velocity model of coastal Washington, we have combined surface geology, well data, and travel times from earthquakes and controlled source seismic experiments to resolve the major boundaries of the Siletz terrane with the adjacent accreted sedimentary prism and volcanic arc. In southern Washington and northern Oregon the Siletz terrane appears to be a thick block (???20 km) that extends west of the coastline and makes a high-angle contact with the offshore accreted sedimentary prism. On its east flank the high-velocity Siletz terrane boundary coincides with an en echelon zone of seismicity in the arc. In northern Washington the western edge of Siletzia makes a lower-angled, fault-bound contact with the accretionary prism. In addition, alternating, east-west trending uplifts and downwarps of the Siletz terrane centered on the antiformal Olympic Mountains may reflect focusing of north-south compression in the northern part of the Siletz terrane. This compressional strain may result from northward transport and clockwise rotation of the Siletz terrane into the relatively fixed Canadian Coast Mountains restraining bend along the coast.

Oregon, Washington

Small scatterers in the lower mantle observed at German broadband arrays

Seismograms of earthquakes from the South Pacific recorded at a German broadband array and network show precursors to PKPdf . These precursors mainly originate from off-path scattering of PKPab or a nearby PKPbc to P (for receiver-side scattering) or from scattering of P to PKPab or PKPbc on the PKPdf path (for source-side scattering). Standard array processing techniques based on plane wave approximations (such as vespagram or frequency-wavenumber analysis) are inadequate for investigating these precursors since scattered waves cannot be approximated as plane waves for arrays and networks larger than 300 × 300 km for short-period waves. We therefore develop a migration method to estimate the location of scatterers in the mantle, at the core-mantle boundary and at the top of the outer core. With our method we are able to find isolated scatterers at the source side and the receiver side, although the depth of the scatterer is not well constrained. However, from looking at the first possible arrival time of precursors at different depth and the region where scattering can take place (scattering volume), we believe that the location of the scatterers is in the lowermost mantle. Since we have detected scatterers in regions where ultralow-velocity zones have been discovered recently, we think that the precursor energy possibly originates from scattering at partial melt at the base of the mantle. Comparing results from broadband and band-pass-filtered data the detection of small-scale structure of the ultralow-velocity zones becomes possible.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Formation of natural gas hydrates in marine sediments 1. Conceptual model of gas hydrate growth conditioned by host sediment properties

The stability of submarine gas hydrates is largely dictated by pressure and temperature, gas composition, and pore water salinity. However, the physical properties and surface chemistry of deep marine sediments may also affect the thermodynamic state, growth kinetics, spatial distributions, and growth forms of clathrates. Our conceptual model presumes that gas hydrate behaves in a way analogous to ice in a freezing soil. Hydrate growth is inhibited within fine-grained sediments by a combination of reduced pore water activity in the vicinity of hydrophilic mineral surfaces, and the excess internal energy of small crystals confined in pores. The excess energy can be thought of as a "capillary pressure" in the hydrate crystal, related to the pore size distribution and the state of stress in the sediment framework. The base of gas hydrate stability in a sequence of fine sediments is predicted by our model to occur at a lower temperature (nearer to the seabed) than would be calculated from bulk thermodynamic equilibrium. Capillary effects or a build up of salt in the system can expand the phase boundary between hydrate and free gas into a divariant field extending over a finite depth range dictated by total methane content and pore-size distribution. Hysteresis between the temperatures of crystallization and dissociation of the clathrate is also predicted. Growth forms commonly observed in hydrate samples recovered from marine sediments (nodules, and lenses in muds; cements in sands) can largely be explained by capillary effects, but kinetics of nucleation and growth are also important. The formation of concentrated gas hydrates in a partially closed system with respect to material transport, or where gas can flush through the system, may lead to water depletion in the host sediment. This "freeze-drying" may be detectable through physical changes to the sediment (low water content and overconsolidation) and/or chemical anomalies in the pore waters and metastable presence of free gas within the normal zone of hydrate stability.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Gravitational stability of three-dimensional stratovolcano edifices

Catastrophic flank collapses have occurred at many stratovolcanoes worldwide. We present a three-dimensional (3-D) slope stability analysis for assessing and quantifying both the locations of minimum edifice stability and the expected volumes of potential failure. Our approach can search the materials underlying a topographic surface, represented as a digital elevation model (DEM), and determine the relative stability of all parts of the edifice. Our 3-D extension of Bishop's [1955] simplified limit-equilibrium analysis incorporates spherical failure surfaces, variable material properties, pore fluid pressures, and earthquake shaking. Although a variety of processes can trigger collapse, we focus here on gravitationally induced instability. Even homogeneous rock properties strongly influence the depth and volume of the least stable potential failure. For large failures in complex topography, patterns of potential instability do not mimic local ground surface slope alone. The May 18, 1980, catastrophic failure of the north flank of Mount St. Helens provides the best documented case history to test our method. Using the undeformed edifice topography of Mount St. Helens in an analysis of dry, static slope stability with homogeneous materials, as might be conducted in a precollapse hazard analysis, our method identified the northwest flank as the least stable region, although the north flank stability was within 5% of the minimum. Using estimates of the conditions that existed 2 days prior to collapse, including deformed topography with a north flank bulge and combined pore pressure and earthquake shaking effects, we obtained good estimates of the actual failure location and volume. Our method can provide estimates of initial failure volume and location to aid in assessing downslope or downstream hazards.

Washington

The crustal thickness of Australia

We investigate the crustal structure of the Australian continent using the temporary broadband stations of the Skippy and Kimba projects and permanent broadband stations. We isolate near-receiver information, in the form of crustal P-to-S conversions, using the receiver function technique. Stacked receiver functions are inverted for S velocity structure using a Genetic Algorithm approach to Receiver Function Inversion (GARFI). From the resulting velocity models we are able to determine the Moho depth and to classify the width of the crust-mantle transition for 65 broadband stations. Using these results and 51 independent estimates of crustal thickness from refraction and reflection profiles, we present a new, improved, map of Moho depth for the Australian continent. The thinnest crust (25 km) occurs in the Archean Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia; the thickest crust (61 km) occurs in Proterozoic central Australia. The average crustal thickness is 38.8 km (standard deviation 6.2 km). Interpolation error estimates are made using kriging and fall into the range 2.5–7.0 km. We find generally good agreement between the depth to the seismologically defined Moho and xenolith-derived estimates of crustal thickness beneath northeastern Australia. However, beneath the Lachlan Fold Belt the estimates are not in agreement, and it is possible that the two techniques are mapping differing parts of a broad Moho transition zone. The Archean cratons of Western Australia appear to have remained largely stable since cratonization, reflected in only slight variation of Moho depth. The largely Proterozoic center of Australia shows relatively thicker crust overall as well as major Moho offsets. We see evidence of the margin of the contact between the Precambrian craton and the Tasman Orogen, referred to as the Tasman Line.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Geophysical evidence for the evolution of the California Inner Continental Borderland as a metamorphic core complex

We use new seismic and gravity data collected during the 1994 Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE) to discuss the origin of the California Inner Continental Borderland (ICB) as an extended terrain possibly in a metamorphic core complex mode. The data provide detailed crustal structure of the Borderland and its transition to mainland southern California. Using tomographic inversion as well as traditional forward ray tracing to model the wide-angle seismic data, we find little or no sediments, low (≤6.6 km/s) P wave velocity extending down to the crust-mantle boundary, and a thin crust (19 to 23 km thick). Coincident multichannel seismic reflection data show a reflective lower crust under Catalina Ridge. Contrary to other parts of coastal California, we do not find evidence for an underplated fossil oceanic layer at the base of the crust. Coincident gravity data suggest an abrupt increase in crustal thickness under the shelf edge, which represents the transition to the western Transverse Ranges. On the shelf the Palos Verdes Fault merges downward into a landward dipping surface which separates "basement" from low-velocity sediments, but interpretation of this surface as a detachment fault is inconclusive. The seismic velocity structure is interpreted to represent Catalina Schist rocks extending from top to bottom of the crust. This interpretation is compatible with a model for the origin of the ICB as an autochthonous formerly hot highly extended region that was filled with the exhumed metamorphic rocks. The basin and ridge topography and the protracted volcanism probably represent continued extension as a wide rift until ∼13 m.y. ago. Subduction of the young and hot Monterey and Arguello microplates under the Continental Borderland, followed by rotation and translation of the western Transverse Ranges, may have provided the necessary thermomechanical conditions for this extension and crustal inflow.

California

Style and age of late Oligocene-early Miocene deformation in the southern Stillwater Range, west central Nevada: Paleomagnetism, geochronology, and field relations

Paleomagnetic and geochronologic data combined with geologic mapping tightly restrict the timing and character of a late Oligocene to early Miocene episode of large magnitude extension in the southern Stillwater Range and adjacent regions of west central Nevada. The southern Stillwater Range was the site of an Oligocene to early Miocene volcanic center comprising (1) 28.3 to 24.3 Ma intracaldera ash flow tuffs, lava flows, and subjacent plutons associated with three calderas, (2) 24.8 to 20.7 Ma postcaldera silicic dikes and domes, and (3) unconformably overlying 15.3 to 13.0 Ma dacite to basalt lava flows, plugs, and dikes. The caldera-related tuffs, lava flows, and plutons were tilted 60°-70° either west or east during the initial period of Cenozoic deformation that accommodated over 100% extension. Directions of remanent magnetization obtained from these extrusive and intrusive, caldera-related rocks are strongly deflected from an expected Miocene direction in senses appropriate for their tilt. A mean direction for these rocks after tilt correction, however, suggests that they were also affected by a moderate (33.4° ± 11.8°) component of counterclockwise vertical axis rotation. Paleomagnetic data indicate that the episode of large tilting occurred during emplacement of 24.8 to 20.7 Ma postcaldera dikes and domes. In detail, an apparent decrease in rotation with decreasing age of individual, isotopically dated bodies of the postcaldera group indicates that most tilting occurred between 24.4 and 24.2 Ma. The onset of tilting immediately following after the final caldera eruptions suggests that the magmatism and deformation were linked. Deformation was not driven by magma buoyancy, however, because tilting equally affected the caldera systems of different ages, including their plutonic roots. It is more likely that regional extension was focused in the southern Stillwater Range due to magmatic warming and reduction of tensile strength of the brittle crust. Faults that accommodated deformation in the southern Stillwater Range initially dipped steeply and cut deeply to expose more than 9 km of crustal section. The exposed crustal sections are probably rotated blocks above an unexposed basal detachment that lay near the early Miocene brittle-ductile transition.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Crustal deformation associated with glacial fluctuations in the eastern Chugach Mountains, Alaska

The changes of the solid Earth in south central Alaska in response to two major glacial fluctuations on different temporal and spatial scales have been estimated and we evaluated their influence on the stress state and ongoing tectonic deformation of the region. During the recent (1993–1995) Bering Glacier surge, a large transfer of ice from the Bagley Ice Field to the Bering Glacier terminus region occurred. We estimated the elastic displacement of the solid Earth due to ice mass redistribution from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at sites near the surging glacier. We can account for these displacements by transfer of an ice volume of about 14 km 3 from the surge reservoir area to the terminus region. We examined the background seismicity (M L ≥ 2.5) before, during, and after the surge. We found that the occurrence of small earthquakes (M L ≤ 4.0) in the surge reservoir region increased during the surge time interval possibly in response to a decrease in ice mass. This suggests that a small decrease in the vertical stress, σ 3 , could be enough to modulate the occurrence of small, shallow earthquakes in this dominantly thrust fault setting. During this century the southern Alaska coastal glaciers have been undergoing an overall decrease in volume. Based on our compilation of changes in the extent and thickness of the coastal glaciers between the Malaspina and Bering, we calculated surface displacements due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to annual thinning and to the cumulative retreat over the last 100 years. The uplift of the region due to an average annual thinning rate of 1–6 m/yr in the ablation region is 1–12 mm/yr. For our reference model with a viscosity of 5×10 19 Pa s for depths between ≈ 40 and 200 km the total viscoelastic response due to the retreat over the last century may be as much as a couple of meters within the coastal ablation zone near Icy Bay. The maximum decrease in σv between 0 and 10 km was ≈ 1.0 MPa, which is significant in relation to the stress drops in recent earthquakes (≈ 2 to 10 MPa) but small in relation to the estimated tectonic stress magnitude. Therefore the occurrence of an earthquake such as the St. Elias (1979, M S = 7.2) may have been advanced in time; however, most of the ongoing stress accumulation would be primarily due to tectonic forces.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t 0 . The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r 0 , testable using earthquake catalogs, where r 0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r 0 , consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t 0 . These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r 0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified Coulomb failure model in which the failure stress threshold is lowered due to weakening, increasing the clock advance. The deviation from a non-Coulomb response also depends on the loading rate, elastic stiffness, initial conditions, and assumptions about how state evolves.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth