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USGS2025

Rare earth elements on the Moon

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a scarce but vital resource for our modern economies and lifestyles. Since the late 1990s, China has supplied the vast majority of the world’s refined REEs. Increasing global demand has broadened the search for REE deposits to unconventional places, including the Moon. Although most lunar rocks have very low REE concentrations, Apollo samples showed that one type of lunar rock containing potassium (K), REEs, and phosphorus (P)—known by the acronym KREEP—has high concentrations of REEs. Data from orbiting satellites have identified locations where substantial deposits of KREEP are likely. The viability of mining these deposits depends on the evolution of REE economics, the development of the Earth-Moon infrastructure, and the findings from future lunar mineral exploration missions.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Fluid inclusion constraints on the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system beneath Mauna Loa – Part 2: Xenoliths

Mauna Loa volcano erupts crystal-poor material at its summit and more crystal-rich material on its rift zones. Some of the more olivine-rich lava flows contain xenoliths with diverse mineralogy, including cumulate harzburgites with high-Mg# orthopyroxenes and high-Fo olivines (both > 84). Previous experimental work and thermodynamic modelling has proposed that high-Mg# orthopyroxenes only crystallize from Mauna Loa melts at high pressures (> 6 kbar, > 20 km), leading to suggestions that there is a region of sub-Moho magma storage at Mauna Loa in addition to the geophysically imaged magma reservoir at 2–5 km depth below the summit. We use melt and fluid inclusion barometry combined with thermodynamic models to further investigate this suggestion. Fluid inclusion data from harzburgites and dunitic xenoliths yield storage depths remarkably similar to those found in non-xenolithic crystals from lavas and tephras, with a clear peak at ~ 2–3 km (below the summit). Depths from melt inclusions in these xenoliths overlap with fluid inclusion pressures, ruling out the possibility of fluid inclusion re-equilibration during a period of stalling in a shallower reservoir. We examine five different thermodynamic models and find that the minimum pressure of olivine-orthopyroxene co-saturation varies by ~ 4 kbar (~ 12 km). These models also fail to predict that orthopyroxene is stable in ~ 15–80% of compositionally relevant experimental charges which grew orthopyroxene. Overall, this shows that phase stability modelling is an unreliable method of determining magma storage depth at Mauna Loa. We suggest that model discrepancies reflect a lack of experimental constraints on orthopyroxene stability at > 1200 ℃ and 0.01–5 kbar. Based on the presence of large oikocrystic orthopyroxenes completely enclosing rounded olivine chadacrysts, we suggest that these harzburgitic xenoliths formed through the reaction of intruding melts with olivine mush piles within the Mauna Loa edifice at ~ 3 km depth below the summit, with no need for a deeper storage reservoir. The predominance of pre-eruptive shallow storage means that there is more chance of detecting reservoir destabilization with geophysical monitoring techniques compared to a scenario where melts are supplied from sub-Moho reservoirs.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 2025 Mw7.7 Mandalay earthquake and updated length scaling of supershear earthquakes

The 2025 M w 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake ruptured 475 km of the central Sagaing fault and is the longest continental strike-slip rupture on record. The observed rupture length is 1.6–4.7 times the value expected (100–300 km) from existing length-magnitude scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes. The earthquake resulted from shallow dextral faulting and ruptured bilaterally with supershear speeds south of the epicenter, rupturing close to three major cities in Myanmar and exposing over six million people to violent or extreme shaking. We report on the surface rupture character, length, and slip distribution based on sub-pixel correlation of Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Planet Dove (3 m) optical images and visual analysis of SkySat and WorldView (0.3–0.5 m) optical images. The earthquake had moderate surface slip (average = 3.3 m, maximum = 5.6 m, 25–75% range = 3.0–4.0 m), narrow deformation zone width (1–10 pixels in sub-pixel correlation and up to 190 meters for the detailed surface rupture mapping), and simple fault geometry (no stepovers or large changes in strike, 87% of the rupture that was mapped in detail is single-stranded). We attribute the extreme length of the Mandalay earthquake to supershear rupture speed, simple fault geometry, narrow down-dip width, and moderate surface slip. Based on a compilation of 25 supershear strike-slip earthquakes ( M w 6.5–8.6; 1979–2025), we find that the rupture length of supershear earthquakes does not fit empirical scaling relationships for strike-slip earthquakes that predict length from magnitude. A length-magnitude scaling relationship based on supershear earthquakes has a best fit of log 10 (surface rupture length) = 0.89 M w – 4.44, indicating that supershear earthquakes tend to be longer than their subshear counterparts for any given magnitude and thus may expose a greater population to shaking.

Mandalay↗
USGS2024

Federal lands greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in the United States: Estimates for 2005–22

In 2016, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produce a publicly available and annually updated database of estimated greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction and use of fossil fuels from Federal lands. The first report in this series included emissions estimates from 2005 to 2014 and were reported for 29 States and two offshore areas. Native American and Tribal lands were not included in that analysis. This report recalculates those previous years (2005–14) with updated data and methods and extends the estimates to 2022. Nationwide emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in 2022 were 1,081.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 Eq.) for CO 2 , 33.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. for methane (CH 4 ), and 4.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. for nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Compared to 2005, the 2022 totals represent decreases in emissions for all three greenhouse gases (by 17 percent for CO 2 , 37 percent for CH 4 , and 30 percent for N 2 O). Emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands represent, on average, 21.8 percent of U.S. emissions for CO 2 , 6.1 percent for CH 4 , and 1.3 percent for N 2 O over the 18 years included in this estimate. The trends and relative magnitudes of the greenhouse gas emissions estimated are roughly parallel to the Federal lands fossil fuel production volumes. In 2021, Federal lands of the conterminous United States stored 70,424 MMT CO 2 Eq. in terrestrial ecosystems. Soils stored most of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon (66 percent), followed by live vegetation (25 percent), deadwood (5 percent), and litter (4 percent). Carbon sequestration on Federal lands was highly variable over time, owing primarily to interannual variability in climate and weather, and variability in land use and land cover (LULC) change and disturbances, among these are wildfires and logging. Between 2005 and 2021, Federal lands sequestered an average of 83 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr. By subtracting the cumulative effects of LULC and disturbance-related CO 2 losses to the atmosphere from the total, we estimate that ecosystems at the national level sequestered CO 2 at an annual mean rate of 17 MMT CO 2 Eq./yr in a term called the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). This annual NEE sequestration value represents about 1.4 percent of average fossil fuel emissions over the same period. The USGS estimates presented in this report represent an accounting for the emissions resulting from fossil fuel extraction on Federal lands and the end-use combustion of those fuels, as well as for the sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems on Federal lands. A combined net CO 2 emissions estimate, which is the difference between the emitted and sequestered CO 2 from both the fossil fuel and ecosystems estimates, provides context for evaluating the greenhouse gas contributions of activities on these lands. The estimates included in this report can provide context for future energy decisions, as well as a basis to track change in the future.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

High‐resolution surface deformation and slip distribution observations for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence help constrain the rupture process

Splay, or branch, faults are a common geometric feature of earthquake surface ruptures and may provide constraints on the rupture behavior of an earthquake. The 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık and M w 7.5 Elbistan, Türkiye, earthquakes are examples of ruptures with multiple small splays, and the Pazarcık earthquake nucleated on a splay fault, the Narlı fault, before rupturing bilaterally on the East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present 3‐m‐resolution surface displacement from subpixel correlation of Planet Dove optical images for the entirety of both ruptures with corresponding surface slip distributions. For a 30‐km‐long study region spanning the Narlı‐EAF intersection, we compare surface slip derived from five data sets with different resolutions (on‐the‐ground, WorldView, Planet Dove, Sentinel‐2, and Sentinel‐1) to elucidate complementary information. In addition, we integrate information from the surface expression of faulting with published dynamic rupture simulations and rupture process studies to constrain a rupture evolution for the Pazarcık earthquake that is consistent across data sets. This work highlights the complementary nature of disparate surface slip data sets and the role that high‐resolution surface displacement information, including from fault splays, can play in constraining nonunique rupture models and refining understanding of the earthquake rupture process.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Water-quality characteristics of the Red River of the North and tributaries in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area, North Dakota, 2019–22

The Flood Risk Management Project was initiated in 2008 in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area to reduce flood risk, flood damages, and flood protection costs in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area. In cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a water-quality monitoring study to describe the water-quality characteristics of the Red River of the North and its tributaries in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area during the preconstruction period of the Flood Risk Management Project from October 1, 2019, to October 1, 2022. The monitoring study included the collection of discrete and continuous water-quality data and streamflow monitoring at selected sites that integrated and enhanced existing monitoring programs within the study area. Discrete samples collected at 10 sites in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area were analyzed for major ions, trace elements, nutrients, suspended sediment, pesticides, and fecal indicator bacteria. In general, major ion concentrations were higher at sites on the tributaries (Wild Rice, Sheyenne, and Maple Rivers) compared to sites on the Red River of the North. In general, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, and sulfate represented most of the dissolved ions measured in samples collected at the 10 sites. Calcium, chloride, fluoride, potassium, silica, and sodium were also measured in samples, but they represented a smaller portion of the total dissolved ions. Sulfate was the most dominant dissolved ion that had the highest concentrations among the major ions measured in samples. A total of 18 trace elements were analyzed in discrete samples. Several of the trace elements had concentrations below the laboratory reporting level in all of the samples, including antimony, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, silver, and thallium. Sites on the Wild Rice River generally had the highest concentrations of arsenic, barium, boron, manganese, and nickel compared to the other sites. Nutrients analyzed in discrete samples included filtered and unfiltered concentrations of ammonia, nitrate plus nitrite, phosphorus, and organic carbon. The median filtered ammonia concentration at most sites was less than the laboratory reporting level of 0.03 milligram per liter as nitrogen except for the Sheyenne River at Harwood, North Dakota (U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] station 05060400), and Red River of the North near Georgetown, Minnesota (USGS station 05062130). The lowest median unfiltered nitrate plus nitrite concentration was measured at sites on the Red River of the North upstream from the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area and the highest median was at sites on the Red River of the North downstream from the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area compared to all other sites. The increase in nitrate plus nitrite concentrations could reflect the effect of the wastewater-treatment plant discharge that enters the Red River of the North upstream from the site located downstream from the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area and from urban runoff. Phosphorus (unfiltered) concentrations were generally higher at sites on the Maple and Sheyenne Rivers compared to the other sites and were higher at sites on the Red River of the North downstream from the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area compared to sites upstream on the Red River of the North. Suspended-sediment concentrations were generally highest at sites in the Sheyenne River and lowest in the upstream Red River of the North sites. Suspended-sediment concentration was highly variable in samples collected at the 10 sites, mostly influenced by the occurrence of snowmelt and rainfall-runoff events. The Sheyenne River near Kindred, N. Dak. (USGS station 05059000) had the largest range in sediment concentrations in samples collected at the 10 sites. For all sites other than the Sheyenne River near Kindred, N. Dak., 95 percent or more of the suspended sediment had particle diameter sizes less than 0.0625 millimeter in 50 percent of the samples (median). Of the 102 pesticides and pesticide degradates analyzed, 45 constituents had no detectable concentrations in any of the 17 samples collected at five sites. The remaining 57 pesticides had at least one detection in the samples collected at the five sites. The sites on the Wild Rice River (near Abercrombie, N. Dak., USGS station 05053000, and near St. Benedict, N. Dak., USGS station 05053500) and Sheyenne River near Kindred, N. Dak., had fewer pesticide detections compared to the Maple River below Mapleton, N.Dak. (USGS station 05060100) and the Red River of the North at Fargo, N. Dak (USGS station 05054000) and near Georgetown, Minn. Patterns in annual loads generally followed the same pattern as streamflow at the 10 sites for water years 2020–22. A water year is the 12-month period from October 1 to September 30 and is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. The greatest loads for all constituents were delivered at the two downstream sites on the Red River of the North; sites that also had the highest annual streamflows among the sites and the greatest loads were delivered in water year 2020 when the highest streamflows occurred at the sites. Likewise, the least loads for most constituents were at the Maple River and were least in 2021 compared to the other years because of low-streamflow conditions. Water-quality measurements continuously recorded at the Red River of the North at Hickson, N. Dak. (USGS station 05051522); Red River of the North at Fargo, N. Dak.; and Red River of the North near Georgetown, Minn. included water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity. Specific conductance values were similar for the Red River of the North near Hickson, N. Dak., and Red River of the North at Fargo, N. Dak., when compared to the Red River of the North near Georgetown, Minn. that had higher values than the other two sites. Dissolved oxygen concentrations and pH were similar among the three sites on the Red River. The patterns in turbidity were mostly related to streamflow conditions and were similar among the three sites on the Red River of the North.

Minnesota, North Dakota↗
USGS1986

Regionalization of low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

Procedures for estimating 3-day 2-year, 3-day 10-year, 3-day 20-year, and 7-day 10-year low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee are based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to west Tennessee streams, and another set applies to central and east Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for west Tennessee are 24 to 32% and for central and east Tennessee 31 to 35%. Streamflow recession indexes, in days/log cycle, are used to account for effects of geology of the drainage basin on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that sustain streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Tennessee↗
USGS2025

A generalized deep learning model to detect and classify volcano seismicity

Volcano seismicity is often detected and classified based on its spectral properties. However, the wide variety of volcano seismic signals and increasing amounts of data make accurate, consistent, and efficient detection and classification challenging. Machine learning (ML) has proven very effective at detecting and classifying tectonic seismicity, particularly using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and leveraging labeled datasets from regional seismic networks. Progress has been made applying ML to volcano seismicity, but efforts have typically been focused on a single volcano and are often hampered by the limited availability of training data. We build on the method of Tan et al. [2024] ( 10.1029/2024JB029194 ) to generalize a spectrogram-based CNN termed the VOlcano Infrasound and Seismic Spectrogram Neural Network ( VOISS-Net ) to detect and classify volcano seismicity at any volcano. We use a diverse training dataset of over 270,000 spectrograms from multiple volcanoes: Pavlof, Semisopochnoi, Tanaga, Takawangha, and Redoubt volcanoes\replaced (Alaska, USA); Mt. Etna (Italy); and Kīlauea, Hawai`i (USA). These volcanoes present a wide range of volcano seismic signals, source-receiver distances, and eruption styles. Our generalized VOISS-Net model achieves an accuracy of 87 % on the test set. We apply this model to continuous data from several volcanoes and eruptions included within and outside our training set, and find that multiple types of tremor, explosions, earthquakes, long-period events, and noise are successfully detected and classified. The model occasionally confuses transient signals such as earthquakes and explosions and misclassifies seismicity not included in the training dataset (e.g. teleseismic earthquakes). We envision the generalized VOISS-Net model to be applicable in both research and operational volcano monitoring settings.

Volcanica↗
USGS1998

Methods and guidelines for effective model calibration; with application to UCODE, a computer code for universal inverse modeling, and MODFLOWP, a computer code for inverse modeling with MODFLOW

This report documents methods and guidelines for model calibration using inverse modeling. The inverse modeling and statistical methods discussed are broadly applicable, but are presented as implemented in the computer programs UCODE, a universal inverse code that can be used with any application model, and MODFLOWP, an inverse code limited to one application model. UCODE and MODFLOWP perform inverse modeling, posed as a parameter-estimation problem, by calculating parameter values that minimize a weighted least-squares objective function using nonlinear regression. Minimization is accomplished using a modified Gauss-Newton method, and prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters can be included in the regression. Inverse modeling in many fields is plagued by problems of instability and nonuniqueness, and obtaining useful results depends on (1) defining a tractable inverse problem using simplifications appropriate to the system under investigation and (2) wise use of statistics generated using calculated sensitivities and the match between observed and simulated values, and associated graphical analyses. Fourteen guidelines presented in this work suggest ways of constructing and calibrating models of complex systems such that the resulting model is as accurate and useful as possible.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

Earthquake rupture arrest from depth‐dependent frictional stability on the Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye (Turkey)

Determining why earthquake ruptures stop is a central challenge in earthquake science and seismic hazard assessment. The Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye, exhibits shallow creep (<∼3 km depth) yet hosts M > 6.5 earthquake ruptures at greater depth. Here, we evaluate whether variations in frictional stability along this segment aided arrest of the 2020 M 6.7 Elaziğ and 2023 M 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake ruptures. Analysis of Sentinel‐1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery indicates the 2023 M 7.8 rupture propagated laterally into a metamorphic massif within the Pütürge segment, where slip rapidly decayed below detection limits. Creepmeters along this segment recorded no significant surface afterslip (<3 mm) in the following year. To investigate this fault‐slip behavior, we conducted triaxial friction experiments on Pütürge fault gouge sampled from an outcrop exposure. The gouge, composed primarily of muscovite, quartz, and calcite, is velocity strengthening at conditions approximating 0–2.5 km depth and velocity weakening at 4–5 km depth. This transition to velocity‐weakening friction is associated with enhanced comminution and shear localization observed microstructurally. Our results suggest that depth‐dependent frictional stability of the Pütürge fault segment facilitates rupture nucleation and propagation at depth while maintaining rupture‐arresting behavior near Earth’s surface.

Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone↗
USGS2025

Airborne geophysical efforts for critical mineral systems mapping in the southern Midcontinent, USA

The increasing global demand for critical minerals to support energy and technological advancement has accelerated exploration and research efforts for these essential resources. Since 2019, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (EMRI) has worked to modernize geologic mapping of the Nation to better understand its critical mineral resources. To further this initiative, the USGS has flown a series of high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric surveys over large areas of the southern Midcontinent. The surveys cover known critical mineral deposits and areas with the potential to host additional critical minerals based on the presence of one or more overlapping mineral systems. One aspect of EMRI emphasizes close collaboration between the USGS and the Association of American State Geologists, as well as other government and industry partners to leverage geophysical, geological, and geochemical expertise on both regional and local scales. The EMRI high-resolution airborne survey data provide new insights into the geophysical framework of the southern Midcontinent and its critical mineral endowment. Additionally, discoveries made from the data have directed new studies for critical mineral exploration.

southern Midcontinent↗
USGS2024

On algorithmically determined versus traditional macroseismic intensity assignments

The utility of macroseismic data, defined as the effects of earthquakes on humans and the built environment, has been increasingly recognized following the advent of online systems that now produce unprecedented volumes of macroseismic intensity information. Contributed reports from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system ( Wald et al ., 1999 ) are used to generate intensity values with an algorithm based on seminal work by Dengler and Dewey (1998) . The algorithm was developed initially to reproduce intensity values assigned by expert opinion using questionnaire results collected by telephone survey. In this article, I discuss reasons why intensity values from (self‐selected) DYFI responses can differ from values that would be assigned by expert opinion given more complete data from randomly selected participants. For example, with the data used by Dengler and Dewey (1998) , intensities near 4 could be determined from the percentage of people who felt shaking in each town. With less spatially rich data from self‐selected participants, this percentage often cannot be determined reliably. Audible noises are key additional diagnostic criteria for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 4, but, although the DYFI system includes a question about noise, following Dengler and Dewey (1998) , the DYFI algorithm does not include a noise indicator. At the upper end of the scale, as defined the DYFI algorithm yields a maximum intensity value of 9.05, nominally corresponding to peak ground acceleration of 75% g . These and other factors can result in DYFI values that are low compared to traditional MMI values assigned using expert opinion, even absent factors that can bias traditional MMI assignments. Modern ground‐motion intensity conversion equations determined using DYFI intensities are expected to be appropriate for DYFI intensities, but the results of this study suggest that biases may be introduced if DYFI and traditional intensities are assumed to be interchangeable.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Controls on natural hydrogen generation during serpentinization of mantle rocks

Mantle rocks undergoing serpentinization can generate significant amounts of natural hydrogen, yet the rates and controlling processes remain poorly understood. Here, we constrain the possible hydrogen generation rates in two distinct mantle rock types, the fertile lherzolites of the Western Pyrenees and the depleted harzburgites of Northern California, to relatively low rates of ~0.1 to ~0.5 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹ km⁻³ of reactive rock. When integrated over the full reactive volumes, this corresponds to total production rates of ~300 to ~600 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹. By combining three-dimensional geophysical inversion with numerical modelling of fluid-rock processes, we show that hydrogen generation rates are mainly limited by H₂ saturation in the fluid and reaction kinetics. Under these constraints, hydrogen generation in mantle-derived serpentinization systems proceeds slowly, making rapid large-scale replenishment unlikely and suggesting that large, economically relevant accumulations, would require timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years to develop.

northern California, western Pyrenees↗
USGS2017

Field-trip guide to Mount Hood, Oregon, highlighting eruptive history and hazards

This guidebook describes stops of interest for a geological field trip around Mount Hood volcano. It was developed for the 2017 International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Scientific Assembly in Portland, Oregon. The intent of this guidebook and accompanying contributions is to provide an overview of Mount Hood, including its chief geologic processes, magmatic system, eruptive history, local tectonics, and hazards, by visiting a variety of readily accessible localities. We also describe coeval, largely monogenetic, volcanoes in the region. Accompanying the field-trip guidebook are separately authored contributions that discuss in detail the Mount Hood magmatic system and its products and behavior (Kent and Koleszar, this volume); Mount Hood earthquakes and their relation to regional tectonics and the volcanic system (Thelen and Moran, this volume); and young surface faults cutting the broader Mount Hood area whose extent has come to light after acquisition of regional light detection and ranging coverage (Madin and others, this volume). The trip makes an approximately 175-mile (280-kilometer) clockwise loop around Mount Hood, starting and ending in Portland. The route heads east on Interstate 84 through the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area. The guidebook points out only a few conspicuous features of note in the gorge, but many other guides to the gorge are available. The route continues south on the Mount Hood National Scenic Byway on Oregon Route 35 following Hood River, and returns to Portland on U.S. Highway 26 following Sandy River. The route traverses rocks as old as the early Miocene Eagle Creek Formation and overlying Columbia River Basalt Group of middle Miocene age, but chiefly lava flows and clastic products of arc volcanism of late Miocene to Holocene age.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Structural evolution and slip rate variations through time of the Puente-Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles: Implications for seismic hazard and folding kinematics

Using seismic reflection profiles, historical well logging data, and luminescence and radiocarbon ages, we determine a Pleistocene-Holocene slip history for the central, Santa Fe Springs segment of the Puente Hills blind-thrust fault (PHT), a major seismogenic fault situated beneath the urbanized Los Angeles metropolitan region. We analyze the geometry of correlative stratigraphic units in the forelimb and backlimb of the overlying growth-fold, the Santa Fe Springs anticline, and determine the uplift of seven age-correlative markers. Uplift measurements are converted to thrust displacements on the underlying PHT using a structural method laid out by Don et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220048 ) that accounts for the geometry of the fault. These data indicate that deep thrust displacement on the PHT is partially consumed updip in the creation of a hanging-wall fault-bend fold, with forelimb growth strata recording <80% of the slip documented within the backlimb. Chronological data from growth strata yield age constraints for folding and faulting on the underlying PHT, providing a detailed incremental slip history derived from both the forelimb and backlimb folding for seven discrete growth horizons, spanning the past 1.4 million years. The resulting six incremental slip rates demonstrate that fault slip has varied through time from the middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. Moreover, these results reveal synchronous acceleration of both the central, Santa Fe Springs and western, Los Angeles segments of the fault system since late Pleistocene time (after 200 ka) and slip rates of greater than 2 mm/yr on the downdip, backlimb, fault-ramp below the anticline.

California↗
USGS2026

Cajon Pass and the southern San Andreas Fault System: Earthquake cycle stress accumulation and present-day loading

With over a century since the last major rupture affecting the wider Los Angeles region, tectonic stress has steadily built along the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems, raising concerns of an imminent large earthquake. Cajon Pass, located at the junction of these faults, represents a critical site for potential through-going ruptures in Southern California. We constructed new 4D earthquake cycle simulations using a 1000-year paleoseismic rupture history of the San Andreas Fault System (SAFS) to assess spatial and temporal variations in stress. A semi-analytic Fourier transform model was used to compute stress from 3D dislocations in an elastic plate overlying a Maxwell viscoelastic half-space, assuming a complete coseismic reset of resolved shear stress on ruptured elements. Results show highest stress accumulation north of Cajon Pass (∼1.8 MPa/100 years) due to greater slip rates, and lower rates south of Cajon Pass (∼1.0–1.5 MPa/100 years). By 2025, Coulomb stress is estimated at 2.8 MPa on the Mojave South (MOS) segment, 1.8 MPa on the North San Bernardino (NSB1) segment and 3.6 MPa on the San Jacinto Bernardino (SJB) segment. Segments accumulate stresses with characteristic ranges of pre-event stress interpreted as failure thresholds: 1.2–2.7 MPa for MOS, 0.4–1.6 MPa for NSB1, and 1.2–2.9 MPa for SJB. When the stress disparity between segments SJB and MOS narrows, the faults appear to rupture jointly, suggesting that stress levels may control how Cajon Pass acts as an earthquake gate. These results may inform seismic hazard assessments by linking stress evolution to fault interactions.

California↗
USGS2024

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗
USGS2026

Decadal-scale characteristics of natural and anthropogenic dune morphology along North Carolina Barrier Islands (SE Atlantic Coast)

Dunes offer protection to coastal communities from storms, yet quantitative research characterizing human influences on dune systems across decades and 10–100 km spatial scales constitutes a known data gap. This study analyzed a multidecadal archive of dune crest elevations and positions to map mesoscale spatiotemporal trends in foredune morphology across the barrier island coastline of North Carolina, SE Atlantic coast. Results are summarized within four categories of coastline representing a range of coastal management intensities, integrating beach width and dune lateral accommodation space to assess the comparative influence of differing intensities of anthropogenic intervention on dune morphology. These categories account for the presence of structures, roads, and alongshore connectivity to anthropogenic sediment sources (beach nourishment). These categories show distinct dune and beach system characteristics. Dunes are largest in the areas with the longest legacy of coastal management. As categories decrease in development intensity, dune and beach system characteristics generally depart from the large, static dunes and narrow beaches consistent with hold-the-line management. Where small or transgressive dunes exist on heavily developed coasts, they coincide with relatively strong hydrodynamic forcing or sediment-limiting geology. There is evidence of indirect coastal management influence on undeveloped barrier islands with alongshore connectivity to developed barriers. While this analysis was conducted at the mesoscale, the results provide researchers with the framework to make insights at smaller scales than those demonstrated in this study.

North Carolina↗