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USGS2024

Variability in coastal habitat available for Longfin Smelt Spirinchus thaleichthys in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

An understanding of oceanographic conditions and processes important to marine animal ecology is fundamental to the development of effective management and conservation actions. Longfin Smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys ) is a pelagic forage fish found in coastal and estuarine waters along the Pacific coast of North America from Alaska to central California. Substantial population declines in California’s San Francisco Estuary, where Longfin Smelt are protected under California’s Endangered Species Act, have prompted extensive study of estuarine factors associated with the decline. However, coastal factors that affect up to two-thirds of the Longfin Smelt life cycle are poorly understood and may be important drivers of population dynamics. We compiled coastal observations from numerous sources to estimate the range-wide coastal marine distribution of Longfin Smelt and assess habitat factors affecting distribution in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Based on maximum entropy species distribution models, Longfin Smelt distribution was correlated with depth, distance from the nearest estuary, sea surface temperature, and sea surface chlorophyll. Longfin Smelt were found in shallow, higher productivity coastal waters closer to estuaries, with depth and temperature the most consistent factors influencing distribution. Habitat suitability was highly variable at the southern extent of the range, particularly off the California coast, and was largely driven by habitat contractions associated with warm-water conditions. Study results provide insights into the habitat and range-wide distribution of an at-risk estuarine-reliant forage fish and are the first step toward identifying processes that affect the marine portion of the Longfin Smelt life cycle.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2019

Species recovery and recolonization of past habitats: Lessons for science and conservation from sea otters in estuaries

Recovering species are often limited to much smaller areas than they historically occupied. Conservation planning for the recovering species is often based on this limited range, which may simply be an artifact of where the surviving population persisted. Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) were hunted nearly to extinction but recovered from a small remnant population on a remote stretch of the California outer coast, where most of their recovery has occurred. However, studies of recently-recolonized estuaries have revealed that estuaries can provide southern sea otters with high quality habitats featuring shallow waters, high production and ample food, limited predators, and protected haul-out opportunities. Moreover, sea otters can have strong effects on estuarine ecosystems, fostering seagrass resilience through their consumption of invertebrate prey. Using a combination of literature reviews, population modeling, and prey surveys we explored the former estuarine habitats outside the current southern sea otter range to determine if these estuarine habitats can support healthy sea otter populations. We found the majority of studies and conservation efforts have focused on populations in exposed, rocky coastal habitats. Yet historical evidence indicates that sea otters were also formerly ubiquitous in estuaries. Our habitat-specific population growth model for California’s largest estuary—San Francisco Bay—determined that it alone can support about 6,600 sea otters, more than double the 2018 California population. Prey surveys in estuaries currently with (Elkhorn Slough and Morro Bay) and without (San Francisco Bay and Drakes Estero) sea otters indicated that the availability of prey, especially crabs, is sufficient to support healthy sea otter populations. Combining historical evidence with our results, we show that conservation practitioners could consider former estuarine habitats as targets for sea otter and ecosystem restoration. This study reveals the importance of understanding how recovering species interact with all the ecosystems they historically occupied, both for improved conservation of the recovering species and for successful restoration of ecosystem functions and processes.

California↗

USGS2002

Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level

Salt marsh ecosystems are maintained by the dominant macrophytes that regulate the elevation of their habitat within a narrow portion of the intertidal zone by accumulating organic matter and trapping inorganic sediment. The long-term stability of these ecosystems is explained by interactions among sea level, land elevation, primary production, and sediment accretion that regulate the elevation of the sediment surface toward an equilibrium with mean sea level. We show here in a salt marsh that this equilibrium is adjusted upward by increased production of the salt marsh macrophyte Spartina alterniflora and downward by an increasing rate of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Adjustments in marsh surface elevation are slow in comparison to interannual anomalies and long-period cycles of sea level, and this lag in sediment elevation results in significant variation in annual primary productivity. We describe a theoretical model that predicts that the system will be stable against changes in relative mean sea level when surface elevation is greater than what is optimal for primary production. When surface elevation is less than optimal, the system will be unstable. The model predicts that there is an optimal rate of RSLR at which the equilibrium elevation and depth of tidal flooding will be optimal for plant growth. However, the optimal rate of RSLR also represents an upper limit because at higher rates of RSLR the plant community cannot sustain an elevation that is within its range of tolerance. For estuaries with high sediment loading, such as those on the southeast coast of the United States, the limiting rate of RSLR was predicted to be at most 1.2 cm/yr, which is 3.5 times greater than the current, long-term rate of RSLR.

South Carolina↗

USGS2012

Physical Climate Forces

Key Findings The coasts of the U.S. are home to many large urban centers and important infrastructure such seaports, airports, transportation routes, oil import and refining facilities, power plants, and military bases. All are vulnerable to varying degrees to impacts of global warming such as sea-level rise, storms, and flooding. High Confidence. Physical observations collected over the past several decades from the land, coasts, oceans, and the atmosphere, as well as environmental indicators, show that warming and some related environmental changes are occurring globally at rates greater than can be expected due to natural processes. These climate-related changes are highly varied, but some are likely due in large part to anthropogenically increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and altered land surface properties. High Confidence. Findings from many independent scientific studies conclude that these changes are consistent with global warming. The primary changes observed are rising sea level and average global air, land, and ocean temperatures; heightening temperature and precipitation extremes in some regions; and increasing levels of oceans acidification and rates of glacier and ice sheet melt. High Confidence. Most coastal landforms, such as barrier islands, deltas, bays, estuaries, wetlands, coral reefs, are highly dynamic and sensitive to even small changes in physical forces and feedbacks such as warming, storms, ocean circulation, waves and currents, flooding, sediment budgets, and sea-level rise. High Confidence. The effects of sea-level rise on coasts vary considerably from region-to-region and over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Land subsidence in certain locations causes relative sea-level rise to exceed global mean sea-level rise. Land uplift such as that found in Alaska and the Northwestern Pacific coast can reduce effects of global mean rise. The effects will be greatest and most immediate on low-relief, low-elevation parts of the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico, mid-Atlantic states, northern Alaska, Hawaii, and island territories and especially on coasts containing deltas, coastal plains, tidal wetlands, bays, estuaries, and coral reefs. Beaches and wetlands on steep cliff coasts and shores backed with seawalls may be unable to move landward or maintain their landform with sea-level rise. Many areas of the coast are especially vulnerable because of the often detrimental effects of development on natural processes. High Confidence. The gradual inundation from recent sea-level rise is evident in many regions such as the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana where high tides regularly flood roads and areas that were previously dry, and in stands of “ghost forests,” in which trees are killed by intrusion of brackish water. High Confidence. Sea level change and storms are dominant driving forces of coastal change as observed in the geologic record of coastal landforms. Increasingly, sea-level rise will become a hazard for coastal regions because of continued global mean sea-level rise, including possibly accelerated rates of rise that increase risk to coastal regions. As the global climate continues to warm and ice sheets melt, coasts will become more dynamic and coastal cities and low-lying areas will be increasingly exposed to erosion, inundation, and flooding. High Confidence. No coordinated, interagency process exists in the U.S. for identifying agreed upon global mean sea-level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, or management, even though this is a critical first step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. High Confidence. Global sea level rose at a rate of 1.7 millimeters/year during the 20th century. The rate has increased to over 3 millimeters/year in the past 20 years and scientific studies suggest high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise 0.2 to 2 meters by the end of this century. Some regions such as Louisiana and the Chesapeake Bay will experience greater relative rise due to factors such as land subsidence, gravitational redistribution of ice-sheet meltwater, ocean circulation changes, and regional ocean thermostatic effects. Other regions undergoing land uplift, such as Alaska, will experience lesser sea-level rise. High Confidence. Variability in the location and time-of-year of storm genesis can influence landfalling storm characteristics, and even small changes can lead to large changes in landfalling location and impact. Although scientists have only low confidence in the sign of projected changes to the coast of storm-related hazards that depend on a combination of factors such as frequency, track, intensity, and storm size, any sea-level rise is virtually certain to exacerbate storm-related hazards. High Confidence. Although sea-level rise and climate change have occurred in the past, the increasing human presence in the coastal zone will make the impacts different for the future. Land use and other human activities often inhibit the natural response of physical processes and adaptation by plants and animals. In some areas, erosion and wetland loss are common because sediment budgets have been reduced, while, in other regions, excess sediment is in-filling harbors, channels, and bays. High Confidence. Observations continue to indicate an ongoing, warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle that will likely result in heavier precipitation events and, combined with sea-level rise and storm surge, an increased flooding severity in some coastal areas, particularly the northeast U.S. Moderate Confidence. Temperature is primarily driving environmental change in the Alaskan coastal zone. Sea ice and permafrost make northern regions particularly susceptible to temperature change. For example, an increase of two degrees Celsius could basically transform much of Alaska from frozen to unfrozen, with extensive implications. Portions of the north and west coast of Alaska are seeing dramatic increases in the rate of coastal erosion and flooding due to sea ice loss and permafrost melting. As a consequence, several coastal communities are planning to relocate to safer locations. Relocation is a difficult decision that is likely to become more common in the future for many coastal regions. High Confidence. Methane is a primary greenhouse gas. Large reserves of methane are bound-up in Alaska’s frozen permafrost. These are susceptible to disturbance and methane release if the Arctic continues to warm. The additional methane released may result in even greater greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. High Confidence.

Book chapter↗

USGS1998

Rapid toxicity assessment of sediments from estuarine ecosystems: A new tandem in vitro testing approach

Microtox® and Mutatox® were used to evaluate the acute toxicity and genotoxicity, respectively, of organic sediment extracts from Pensacola Bay and St. Andrew Bay, two estuaries that cover about 273 and 127 km 2 , respectively, along the Gulf coast of Florida, USA. The sensitivity and selectivity of these two bioluminescent toxicity assays were demonstrated in validation studies with over 50 pesticides, genotoxins, and industrial pollutants, both as single compounds and in complex mixtures. The 50% effective concentration (EC50) values of insecticides, petroleum products, and polychlorinated biphenyls determined by Microtox all tended to group around the mean EC50 value of 1.2 (0.8) mg/L. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon sensitivity of Mutatox was in general similar to that reported in the Ames test. Surficial sediment samples were collected, extracted with dichloromethane, evaporated and concentrated under nitrogen, dissolved in dimethyl sulfoxide, assayed for acute toxicity and genotoxicity, and compared with reference sediments. Samples with low EC50 values, and determined to be genotoxic, were detected in Massalina Bayou, Watson Bayou, East Bay, and St. Andrew Bay–East in St. Andrew Bay as well as Bayou Grande, Bayou Chico, and Bayou Texar in Pensacola Bay. An overview of these data sets analyzed by Spearman rank correlation showed a significant correlation between acute toxicity and genotoxicity ( p < 0.05). Microtox and Mutatox in tandem was a sensitive, cost‐effective, and rapid (<24 h) screening tool that identified troublesome areas of pollution and assessed the potential sediment toxicity of lipophilic contaminants in aquatic ecosystems.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2021

Defining aquatic habitat zones across northern Gulf of Mexico estuarine gradients through submerged aquatic vegetation species assemblage and biomass data

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) creates highly productive habitats in coastal areas, providing support for many important species of fish and wildlife. Despite the importance and documented loss of SAV across fresh to marine habitats globally, we lack consistent baseline data on estuarine SAV resources, particularly in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) estuaries. To understand SAV distribution in the NGOM, SAV biomass and species identity were collected at 384 sites inter-annually (June–September; 2013–2015) from Mobile Bay, Alabama, to San Antonio Bay, Texas, USA. Coastwide, SAV distribution and biomass were consistent across years, covering an estimated 87,000 ha, and supporting approximately 16 ± 1% total cover with an average biomass of 24.5 ± 1.9 g m −2 . Differences in hydrology (i.e., precipitation, freshwater input, water depth) and exposure (i.e., wave and wind energy) manifested in unique SAV assemblages and biomass distributions across the region (i.e., Coastal Mississippi-Alabama, Mississippi River Coastal Wetlands, Chenier Plain, Texas Mid-Coast) and estuarine gradient (i.e., marsh zones defined as fresh, intermediate, brackish, saline). Descriptive cluster analyses identified indicator SAV species, known as medoid observations that represented combined salinity, turbidity, and depth conditions unique to different region and marsh zone combinations. While the presence of SAV is often used as an indicator of ecological health, identifying a medoid-based SAV indicator species in aquatic habitats can be used to describe estuarine conditions in more detail and develop aquatic habitat zones. Exploration and the use of this type of field data could be developed as a means to track, manage, and define aquatic habitats across regional and estuarine gradients and further develop ecosystem-based assessment and restoration activities. Identifying aquatic zones through a representative medoid associates SAV species with locations defined by both long-term salinity and salinity variability, water depth, and exposure, which is a powerful potential tool for managers and restoration decision-makers.

Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2025

Cyanotoxin and domoic acid occurrence, relation with salinity, and potential recreational health risks in U.S. coasts in the 2015 US EPA National Coastal Condition Assessment

In the first nationwide study of cyanotoxins in U.S. estuaries, algal toxins, cyanotoxins, chlorophyll, and salinity were measured in samples collected during the National Coastal Condition Assessment 2015. Anatoxin-a (ANAA), cylindrospermopsin (CYLS), domoic acid (DMAC), and microcystins (MCs) were detected by LC/MS/MS in 0.6, 0.9, 8.3, and 2.0 % of samples with mean concentrations of detections of 0.13, 0.13, 0.53, and 0.49 µg/L, respectively. MCs by ELISA were also evaluated, and 4.0 % of samples had measurable MCs with a mean of 0.78 µg/L. While ANAA and CYLS were detected south of 40° latitude, MCs by ELISA and DMAC occurred nationwide. Results were compared to freshwater recreational health thresholds from the World Health Organization and US Environmental Protection Agency to evaluate potential recreational exposure to MCs and CYLS since marine thresholds do not currently exist. Cyanotoxins were categorized using the 2021 World Health Organization Alert Level Framework for recreational exposure with 99.4, 99.1, 94.7, 98.0, and 44.7 % of samples being at the Vigilance Level for ANAA, CYLS, MCs (ELISA and LC/MS/MS), and chlorophyll, respectively with the remaining samples at Alert Level 1. Chlorophyll had 19.9 and 9.9 % of samples at Alert Level 1 and Alert Level 2, respectively. All cyanotoxins were below US EPA health advisory thresholds. ANAA, CYLS, DMAC, and MCs by ELISA were detected in samples with a wide range of salinities, while MCs by LC/MS/MS only occurred in samples with salinity <5 part per thousand (PPT). The source of cyanotoxins is likely a combination of inland transport and in situ estuarine production.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2010

Anthropogenic influence on recent bathymetric change in west-central San Francisco Bay

Two multibeam sonar surveys of west-central San Francisco Bay, California, were conducted in 1997 and 2008. Bathymetric change analysis between the two surveys indicates a loss of 14.1 million cubic meters (-3.1 cm/yr) of sediment during this time period, representing an approximately three-fold acceleration of the rate that was observed from prior depth change analysis from 1947 to 1979 for all of Central Bay, using more spatially coarse National Ocean Service (NOS) soundings. The portions of the overlapping survey areas between 1997 and 2008 designated as aggregate mining lease sites lost sediment at five times the rate of the remainder of west-central San Francisco Bay. Despite covering only 28% of the analysis area, volume change within leasing areas accounted for 9.2 million cubic meters of sediment loss, while the rest of the area lost 4.9 million cubic meters of sediment. The uncertainty of this recent analysis is more tightly constrained due to more stringent controls on vertical and horizontal position via tightly coupled, inertially aided differential Global Positioning Systems (GPS) solutions for survey vessel trajectory that virtually eliminate inaccuracies from traditional tide modeling and vessel motion artifacts. Further, quantification of systematic depth measurement error can now be calculated through comparison of static surfaces (e.g., bedrock) between surveys using seafloor habitat maps based on acoustic backscatter measurements and ground-truthing with grab samples and underwater video. Sediment loss in the entire San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half-century, as estimated from a series of bathymetric change studies, is 240 million cubic meters, and most of this is believed to be coarse sediment (i.e., sand and gravel) from Central Bay and the San Francisco Bar, which is likely to limit the sand supply to adjacent, open-coast beaches. This hypothesis is supported by a calibrated numerical model in a related study that indicates that there is a potential net export of sand-sized sediment across the Golden Gate, suggesting that a reduction in the supply of sand-sized sediment within west-central San Francisco Bay will limit transport to the outer coast.

California↗

USGS2025

Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast

In this study, we explored the opportunities for tidal wetland landward migration in response to sea-level rise on the Pacific Coast of the United States. By employing a systematic spatial approach, we quantified the available space for wetland migration with sea-level rise across 61 estuarine drainage areas. Although many of the existing tidal wetlands are small patches, our analyses show that 63% of the estuaries lacked the landward migration space needed to replace current tidal wetland extent, thereby threatening a wide range of protected species and ecosystem services. Developed lands and steep topography represent common barriers to migration along the Pacific coast, especially in central and southern California. The available wetland migration space consists primarily of agriculture, pasture, and freshwater wetlands, with most of the area available for migration occurring in just a few watersheds. In most watersheds tidal wetland migration would only occur with human intervention or facilitation. The greatest amount of area available for wetland migration was in the San Francisco Bay-Delta and Columbia River estuaries, together accounting for 58% of all available migration space on the Pacific Coast. Nature-based solutions to reduce tidal wetland loss from sea-level rise can include restoration in suitable areas, removal of barriers to tidal wetland migration, and elevation building approaches. Tidal wetland restoration opportunities could increase area by 59%, underscoring it as a plausible approach to prevent tidal wetland loss in those estuaries and a viable Nature-based solution. 54% of estuaries building elevations of existing tidal wetlands may be the most feasible approach needed. Our analyses illustrate the importance of management efforts that use Nature-based approaches to prevent tidal wetland ecosystem and species loss over the coming decades from sea-level rise.

Pacific Coast↗

USGS2008

Predictions for an invaded world: A strategy to predict the distribution of native and non-indigenous species at multiple scales

Habitat models can be used to predict the distributions of marine and estuarine non-indigenous species (NIS) over several spatial scales. At an estuary scale, our goal is to predict the estuaries most likely to be invaded, but at a habitat scale, the goal is to predict the specific locations within an estuary that are most vulnerable to invasion. As an initial step in evaluating several habitat models, model performance for a suite of benthic species with reasonably well-known distributions on the Pacific coast of the US needs to be compared. We discuss the utility of non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for predicting habitat- and estuary-scale distributions of native and NIS. NPMR incorporates interactions among variables, allows qualitative and categorical variables, and utilizes data on absence as well as presence. Preliminary results indicate that NPMR generally performs well at both spatial scales and that distributions of NIS are predicted as well as those of native species. For most species, latitude was the single best predictor, although similar model performance could be obtained at both spatial scales with combinations of other habitat variables. Errors of commission were more frequent at a habitat scale, with omission and commission errors approximately equal at an estuary scale. ?? 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

A catalog of Louisiana's nesting seabird colonies

Summarizing his colonial nesting waterbird survey experiences along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in a paper presented to the Colonial Waterbird Group of the Waterbird Society (Portnoy 1978), bird biologist John W. Portnoy stated, “This huge concentration of nesting waterbirds, restricted almost entirely to the wetlands and estuaries of southern Louisiana, is unmatched in all of North America; for example, a 1975 inventory of wading birds along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida [Custer and Osborn, in press], tallied 250,000 breeding [waterbirds] of 14 species, in contrast with the 650,000 birds of 15 species just from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay.” The “650,000 birds” to which Portnoy referred, were tallied by him in a 1976 survey of coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama (see below, under “Major Surveys” section). According to the National Atlas of Coastal Waterbird Colonies in the Contiguous United States: 1976-82 (Spendelow and Patton 1988), the percentages of the total U.S. populations of Laughing Gull (11%), Forster's Tern (52%), Royal Tern (16%), Sandwich Tern (77%), and Black Skimmer (44%) which annually nest in Louisiana are significant – perhaps crucially so in the cases of Forster's Tern, Sandwich Tern, and Black Skimmer. Nearly three decades after Spendelow and Patton's determinations above, coastal Louisiana still stands out as the major center of colonial wading bird and seabird nesting in all of the United States. Within those three intervening decades, however, the collective habitats which comprise Louisiana's now fragile coastal zone have taken major hits from commercial/residential, oil & gas, and other industrial development, primarily in the form of coastal erosion exacerbated by these and other factors (Portnoy 1978, Spendelow and Patton 1988, Martin and Lester 1990, Green, et al. 2006). Moreover, during this same period, both geologic subsidence rates (Tornqvist et al. 2008) and mean sea-level (Tornqvist et al. 2002) have increased, along with significant tropical storm activity; all of which have combined to impact available marsh, barrier island, beach, and dredge spoil nesting habitat for waterbirds, especially seabirds, throughout the coastal zone of Louisiana. The primary objective of this publication is to detail those coastal Louisiana colonial seabird nesting sites for which we have reasonably accurate data, in a tabular, site-by-site format. All major survey (1976-2008) data of site-by-site seabird species counts, as well as several smaller data sets, referred to in the site history tables as “miscellaneous observations” obtained during the May-June seabird breeding period, are included. It is our hope that these data will provide a dependable foundation from which future colonial seabird nesting surveys might be planned and carried out, as well as showcase the importance of coastal Louisiana's seabird rookeries, and contribute to their conservation.

Louisiana↗

USGS2015

Origin of Atlantic Sturgeon collected off the Delaware coast during spring months

Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus was federally listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act as five distinct population segments (DPS). Currently, at least 18 estuaries coastwide host spawning populations and the viability of these vary, requiring differing levels of protection. Subadults emigrate from their natal estuaries to marine waters where they are vulnerable to bycatch; one of the major threats to the rebuilding of populations. As a result, identifying the population origin of Atlantic Sturgeon in coastal waters is critical to development of management plans intended to minimize interactions of the most imperiled populations with damaging fisheries. We used mitochondrial DNA control region sequencing and microsatellite DNA analyses to determine the origin of 261 Atlantic Sturgeon collected off the Delaware coast during the spring months. Using individual-based assignment (IBA) testing and mixed stock analysis, we found that specimens originated from all nine of our reference populations and the five DPSs used in the listing determination. Using IBA, we found that the Hudson River population was the largest contributor (38.3%) to our coastal collection. The James (19.9%) and Delaware (13.8%) river populations, at one time thought to be extirpated or nearly so, were the next largest contributors. The three populations combined in the South Atlantic DPS contributed 21% of specimens; the Altamaha River, the largest population in the South Atlantic DPS, only contributed a single specimen to the collection. While the origin of specimens collected on the Delaware coast was most likely within rivers of the New York Bight DPS (52.1%), specimens that originated elsewhere were also well represented. Genetic analyses provide a robust tool to identify the population origin of individual sturgeon outside of their natal estuaries and to determine the quantitative contributions of individual populations to coastal aggregations that are vulnerable to bycatch and other anthropogenic threats.

Delaware↗

USGS2010

Estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change on the Lower Savannah River Estuary

The ability of water-resource managers to adapt to future climatic change is especially challenging in coastal regions of the world. The East Coast of the United States falls into this category given the high number of people living along the Atlantic seaboard and the added strain on resources as populations continue to increase, particularly in the Southeast. Increased temperatures, changes in regional precipitation regimes, and potential increased sea level may have a great impact on existing hydrological systems in the region. The Savannah River originates at the confluence of the Seneca and Tugaloo Rivers, near Hartwell, Ga., and forms the state boundary between South Carolina and Georgia. The J. Strom Thurmond Dam and Lake, located 238 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, is responsible for most of the flow regulation that affects the Savannah River from Augusta, Ga., to the coast. The Savannah Harbor experiences semi-diurnal tides of two low and two high tides in a 24.8-hour period with pronounced differences in tidal range between neap and spring tides occurring on a 14-day and 28-day lunar cycle. Salinity intrusion results from the interaction of three principal forces - streamflow, mean tidal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze, model, and simulate hydrodynamic behaviors at critical coastal streamgages in the Lower Savannah River Estuary, data-mining techniques were applied to over 15 years of hourly streamflow, coastal water-quality, and water-level data. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause salinity intrusions. Streamflow data from the 9,850 square-mile Savannah River Basin were input into the model as time-delayed variables. Tidal inputs to the models were obtained by decomposing tidal water-level data into a “periodic” signal of tidal range and a “chaotic” signal of mean water levels. The ANN models were able to convincingly reproduce historical behaviors and generate alternative scenarios of interest. Important freshwater resources are located proximal to the freshwater-saltwater interface of the estuary. The Savannah National Wildlife Refuge is located in the upper portion of the Savannah River Estuary. The tidal freshwater marsh is an essential part of the 28,000-acre refuge and is home to a diverse variety of wildlife and plant communities. Two municipal freshwater intakes are located upstream from the refuge. To evaluate the impact of climate change on salinity intrusion on these resources, inputs of streamflows and mean tidal water levels were modified to incorporate estimated changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise appropriate for the Southeastern United States. Changes in mean tidal water levels were changed parametrically for various sea-level rise conditions. Preliminary model results at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Interstate-95 streamgage (station 02198840) for a 7½-year simulation show that historical daily salinity concentrations never exceeded 0.5 practical salinity units (psu). A 1-foot sea-level rise (ft, 30.5 centimeters [cm]) would increase the number of days of salinity concentrations greater than 0.5 psu to 47 days. A 2-ft (61 cm) sea-level rise would increase the number of days to 248.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2012

Waterbird nest monitoring program in San Francisco Bay (2005-10)

Historically, Forster’s Terns ( Sterna forsteri ), American Avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), and Black-necked Stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ) were uncommon residents of San Francisco Bay, California (Grinnell and others, 1918; Grinnell and Wythe, 1927; Sibley, 1952). Presently, however, avocets and stilts are the two most abundant breeding shorebirds in San Francisco Bay (Stenzel and others, 2002; Rintoul and others, 2003). More than 4,000 avocets and 1,000 stilts, roughly 20 percent of their San Francisco Bay wintering populations, breed within the estuary, making San Francisco Bay the largest breeding area for these species on the Pacific Coast (Stenzel and others, 2002; Rintoul and others, 2003). Forster’s Terns were first observed breeding in the San Francisco Bay in 1948 (110 nests); they had increased to over 4000 individuals by the 1980s (Sibley, 1952; Gill, 1977; Harvey and others, 1992; Carter and others, 1990) and were estimated at 2000–3000 for 1998–2002; (Strong and others, 2004). It is hypothesized that the relatively large size of the current waterbird breeding populations is a result of the creation of artificial salt evaporation ponds from the 1930s through the 1950s (Gill, 1977; Goals Project, 1999). Until recently, these salt ponds and associated islands used by waterbirds for nesting have been managed relatively similarly and have supported large breeding waterbird populations. Recently, the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project has implemented plans to convert 50–90 percent of the 15,000 acres of salt ponds in the South San Francisco Bay back to tidal marsh habitat. Therefore, there is concern that the Restoration Project, while benefiting other native species, could negatively influence local breeding populations of waterbirds that are reliant on salt pond habitats for both breeding and foraging. A primary goal of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project is to maintain current breeding waterbird populations (South Bay Salt Pond Long-Term Restoration Project, 2004); thus, specific efforts are planned to ensure that the Restoration Project enhances the habitats of the remaining salt ponds for breeding waterbirds. Here, we provide a summary of nesting ecology data for Forster’s Terns, American Avocets, and Black-necked Stilts, collected from 2005 to 2010 in the areas of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, including lands managed by the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge and Eden Landing Ecological Reserve. These results provide baseline conditions for breeding waterbirds prior to implementation of most restoration actions and can be used to both guide future restoration actions as well as to determine the effect of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project on breeding waterbirds. It is imperative to continue to collect nesting waterbird data annually to assess the response of birds to the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project.

California↗

USGS2004

The mute swan, its status, behavior, and history in the U. K

For many years the mute swan has been considered a royal bird. It is a prominent resident throughout the United Kingdom (U.K.), often found on the inland waterways. Some people consider it to be a nonmigratory native bird because it doesn't tend to move large distances and doesn't often venture far from freshwater. A mute swan may often live out its life cycle in the same river valley in which it hatched. Over the last 30-40 years, a large amount of research has been carried out on their life cycle, behavior, and mortality caused by such factors as lead poisoning from fishing weights. Throughout the U.K., there are a number of areas where mute swans may be found in large numbers, including (1) the River Thames (which passes through London), (2) Slimbridge Wetlands Center, (3) Berwick-upon- Tweed (the second largest mute swan colony in Britain), and (4) Abbotsbury Swannery (the worlds only managed swan colony). This last site is a truly unique area, and each year it often has over 150 nesting pairs producing between 2-12 eggs per nest. The management is minimal, and the site is ideal for their requirements because it is close to a number of freshwater sources, and has good nesting sites and large quantities of eelgrass Zostera marina and widgeon grass Ruppia maritima, their preferred food sources. The Swannery is located on the south coast of England at the western end of the Fleet Lagoon, a micro-tidal estuary, which borders the English Channel.

Book chapter↗

USGS1983

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Gulf of Mexico American Oyster

The American or eastern oyster (Crassostrea virrinica [Gmelin]), a bivalve in the family Ostreidae, is an important commercia and recreational species along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of North America and other areas (U.S. Pacific coast and Hawaii) where it has been introduced (Galtsoff 1964). It evolved over the last 25 million years (Miocene and Pliocene epochs) from an ancestral, Atlantic-Pacific species that also gave rise to the Central American oyster of the Pacific coast, Crassostrea corteziensis (Hertlein) (Stenzel 1971). It evolved to fill a eurytopic niche in coastal estuaries where it forms massive reefs in nearshore bays, sounds, lagoons, and river mouths. Its existence depends on suitable substratum (cultch and firm bottom sediments) and acceptable sal-inity conditions. The location and distribution of oyster reefs in a salt marsh-estuari ne ecosystem are not acci denta 1; rather, they result from the interacti on of many bi 01 ogi ca 1, chemica1, geo1ogi ca1, and phys i ca 1 processes (Butler 1954a; Marshall 1954; Bahr and Lanier 1981).

FWS/OBS↗

USGS2019

Tidal erosion and upstream sediment trapping modulate records of land-use change in a formerly glaciated New England estuary

Land clearing, river impoundments, and other human modifications to the upland landscape and within estuarine systems can drive coastal change at local to regional scales. However, as compared with mid-latitude coasts, the impacts of human modifications along sediment-starved formerly glaciated coastal landscapes are relatively understudied. To address this gap, we present a late-Holocene record of changing sediment accumulation rates and sediment sources from sediment cores collected across a tidal flat in the Merrimack River estuary (Mass., USA). We pair sedimentology, geochronology, bulk- and stable-isotope organic geochemistry, and hydrodynamic simulations with historical data to evaluate human and natural impacts on coastal sediment fluxes. During the 17th to 19th centuries, accumulation rates increased by an order of magnitude in the central tidal flat, likely in response to enhanced delivery of terrestrial sediment resulting from upland deforestation. However, the overall increase in accumulation (0.56–2.6 mm/year) within the estuary is subtle and spatially variable across the tidal flats because of coincident anthropogenic land clearing and dam building, upland sediment storage, and estuarine hydrodynamics. This study provides insight into the response of formerly glaciated fluvial-coastal systems to human modifications, and underscores the role of estuarine environmental conditions in modifying upland signals of land-use change.

Massachusetts, New Hampshire↗

USGS2012

Spatial and temporal diet patterns of subadult and small adult striped bass in Massachusetts estuaries: Data, a synthesis, and trends across scales

Subadult and small adult (375–475 mm total length) striped bass Morone saxatilis are abundant and represent an important component of the recovered U.S. Atlantic coast stocks. However, little is known about these large aggregations of striped bass during their annual foraging migrations to New England. A quantitative understanding of trends in the diets of subadult and small adult migrants is critical to research and management. Because of the complexity of the Massachusetts coast, we were able to compare diets at multiple spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales and evaluate which of these provided the greatest insights into the foraging patterns of this size of fish. Specifically, during spring through autumn, we quantified the diets of 797 migratory striped bass collected from 13 Massachusetts estuaries distributed among three geographic regions in two biogeographic provinces. Our data provided three useful results. First, subadult and young adult striped bass ate a season-specific mixture of fish and invertebrates. For example, more juvenile Atlantic herring Clupea harengus were eaten in spring than in summer or autumn, more juvenile Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus were eaten in autumn than in spring or summer, amphipods were eaten primarily in the southern biogeographic province, and shrimp Crangon sp. were eaten in all locations and seasons. Second, examining diets by season was essential because of the temporal variability in striped bass prey. Grouping prey by fish and invertebrates revealed the potential for predictable differences in growth across geographic locations and seasons, based on the output from simple bioenergetics simulations. Third, of the three spatial scales examined, region provided the most quantitative and interpretable ecological trends. Our results demonstrate the utility of comparing multiple scales to evaluate the best way to depict diet trends in a migrating predator that seasonally uses different geographic locations.

Massachusetts↗