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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

Sustainability Science↗
USGS2021

Habitat features predict carrying capacity of a recovering marine carnivore

The recovery of large carnivore species from over‐exploitation can have socioecological effects; thus, reliable estimates of potential abundance and distribution represent a valuable tool for developing management objectives and recovery criteria. For sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ), as with many apex predators, equilibrium abundance is not constant across space but rather varies as a function of local habitat quality and resource dynamics, thereby complicating the extrapolation of carrying capacity ( K ) from one location to another. To overcome this challenge, we developed a state‐space model of density‐dependent population dynamics in southern sea otters ( E. l. nereis ), in which K is estimated as a continuously varying function of a suite of physical, biotic, and oceanographic variables, all described at fine spatial scales. We used a theta‐logistic process model that included environmental stochasticity and allowed for density‐independent mortality associated with shark bites. We used Bayesian methods to fit the model to time series of survey data, augmented by auxiliary data on cause of death in stranded otters. Our model results showed that the expected density at K for a given area can be predicted based on local bathymetry (depth and distance from shore), benthic substrate composition (rocky vs. soft sediments), presence of kelp canopy, net primary productivity, and whether or not the area is inside an estuary. In addition to density‐dependent reductions in growth, increased levels of shark‐bite mortality over the last decade have also acted to limit population expansion. We used the functional relationships between habitat variables and equilibrium density to project estimated values of K for the entire historical range of southern sea otters in California, USA, accounting for spatial variation in habitat quality. Our results suggest that California could eventually support 17,226 otters (95% CrI = 9,739–30,087). We also used the fitted model to compute candidate values of optimal sustainable population abundance (OSP) for all of California and for regions within California. We employed a simulation‐based approach to determine the abundance associated with the maximum net productivity level (MNPL) and propose that the upper quartile of the distribution of MNPL estimates (accounting for parameter uncertainty) represents an appropriate threshold value for OSP. Based on this analysis, we suggest a candidate value for OSP (for all of California) of 10,236, which represents 59.4% of projected K .

California↗
USGS2012

Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: salmon in the Arctic?

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗
USGS2025

Component identification of solid biomass fuels using reflected light microscopy: Interlaboratory study 2

As nations transition toward sustainable energy systems , biomass has become a vital component of global energy portfolios. Derived from organic materials such as wood, agricultural residues, forestry byproducts, and organic waste, biomass is a renewable energy source with significant environmental and economic benefits. Responsible biomass energy production can improve waste management, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and mitigate environmental pollution. However, as the diversity of biomass-derived fuels increases, robust quality assessment methods are essential to ensure their efficiency, safety, and minimal environmental impact. Reflected light microscopy (RLM) is one such technique with the potential to complement conventional physico-chemical analyses by enabling a rapid identification of material constituents and impurities. To refine this methodology and evaluate the reproducibility of solid biomass component identification using RLM, an interlaboratory study (ILS) was conducted. The study involved the recognition of 58 components across 45 photomicrographs, with the participation of 65 scientists and students from 25 countries. The participants faced high difficulty identifying some of the marked components, and as a result, the percentage of correct answers ranged from 19.0 % to 98.3 %, with an average correct identification rate of 62.7 %. The most challenging aspects of the identification process included distinguishing between woody and non-woody (agro) biomass, accurately identifying petroleum-derived materials, and differentiating agro biomass from inorganic matter. The results suggest that while RLM is an important tool for characterizing solid biomass, further development of methodology guidelines and training are necessary to enhance its effectiveness. Future research should prioritize preparing detailed, image-rich, microscopic morphological descriptions of biomass fuel components, which could improve the accuracy and reliability of using RLM in biomass fuel characterization.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2018

Status of selenium in south San Francisco Bay—A basis for modeling potential guidelines to meet National tissue criteria for fish and a proposed wildlife criterion for birds

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed Aquatic Life and AquaticDependent Wildlife Criteria for Selenium (Se) in California’s San Francisco Bay and Delta (Bay-Delta) in June 2016. Here we apply the same modeling methodology—Ecosystem-Scale Selenium Modeling— to an assessment of conditions and documentation of food webs of south San Francisco Bay (South Bay) as an exploratory framework in support of site-specific Se criteria development. Long-term datasets contribute to the basis for modeling, especially the 21-year collection of the clam Macoma petalum from a mudflat at the lower end of South Bay (Lower South Bay). As such, this is a working document that may serve as a basis to establish an understanding of the specifics of Se biodynamics within the estuary and reduce uncertainties about how to protect it. This approach brings together the main factors involved in toxicity: likelihood of high exposure, inherent species sensitivity, and the behavioral ecology (for example, demographics and life history) of an organism in terms of susceptibility to a reproductive toxicant. Species sensitivity is represented here by use of the EPA’s current national tissue Se criterion for fish or that proposed to protect the eggs of aquatic birds for the Bay-Delta (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2016a, 2016b, 2016c). This report also strives to bring together findings and field data across a body of literature for South Bay to provide an integrative assessment. We find an assemblage of site-specific conditions that could affect modeling: associated urban processes such as discharges from municipal wastewater treatment plants and drainage from mercury (Hg) mining and limestone extraction are sources of Se that characterize the Lower South Bay as the location of interest for Se exposure; • hydrodynamics are lagoon-like (that is, less flushing), which sustains elevated nutrients and phytoplankton blooms; • managed freshwater sources are a major hydrodynamic component; • birds, in addition to fish, are prominent predators in South Bay; • wetland restoration has recently intervened to play a significant role in ecosystem function that may include uptake of both Hg and Se; • the dietary food web of surficial-sediment to M. petalum is important because of the dominance of this clam species and its elevated Se bioaccumulation potential compared to other local food webs; and 2 • maximal Se concentrations may be limited by transitory or annually renewed food webs (for example, migratory shorebirds and decimation of clams from marshes). We also find that the constructed mechanistic model: • spatially connects to the Palo Alto mudflat site because of data availability; • accurately predicts average observed Se concentrations in M. petalum and in predator species of fish and birds; and • is able to bracket a range of potential protective water-column Se concentrations specific to predator species based on the EPA’s national Se criterion for whole-body fish tissue and a proposed site-specific criterion for bird eggs in the Bay-Delta.

California↗
USGS2025

Potential interactions between birds and floating photovoltaic solar energy: Spatially informed species vulnerabilities, techno-ecological risks, and sustainability trade-offs

Floating photovoltaics (floating solar panels; FPV) can reduce the negative impacts of solar energy development in terrestrial environments, but their effects on freshwater ecosystems remain poorly understood. We examined potential FPV interactions with avian biodiversity, using previously modeled technical potential of FPV in the northeastern United States. We developed a vulnerability index based on avian species’: (i) morphological traits, (ii) level of conservation concern, and (iii) habitat requirements. Using eBird participatory science data, we assessed the risk of FPV to 291 species of birds occurring at FPV-suitable waterbodies based on their vulnerability index and estimated relative abundance at each location. The greatest risk of FPVs to birds was associated with waterbodies near the Atlantic coast and Great Lakes, and most (80%) of these high-risk waterbodies were smaller waterbodies. Because the avian risk at FPV-suitable waterbodies was not correlated with estimated energy generation, reducing risk to birds might not require energy trade-offs. Moreover, avoiding FPV installations at waterbodies predicted to pose high risk to birds is likely to return social and recreational benefits while minimizing risk of biofouling. Our analysis provides a framework for proactively evaluating risk, reducing potential adverse impacts of FPV to birds, and identifying cobenefits of sustainable FPV siting across waterscapes.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗
USGS2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

Revised groundwater-flow model of the glacial aquifer system north of Aberdeen, South Dakota, through water year 2015

The city of Aberdeen, in northeastern South Dakota, requires an expanded and sustainable supply of water to meet current and future demands. Conceptual and numerical models of the glacial aquifer system in the area north of Aberdeen were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Aberdeen in 2012. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Aberdeen, completed a study to revise the original numerical groundwater-flow model using data through water year (WY) 2015 to aid the City of Aberdeen in their development of plans and strategies for a sustainable water supply and to increase understanding of the glacial aquifer system and groundwater-flow system near Aberdeen. The original model was revised to improve the fit between model-simulated values and observed (measured or estimated) data, provide greater insight into surface-water interactions, and improve the usefulness of the model for water-supply planning. The revised groundwater-flow model (hereafter referred to as the “revised model”) presented in this report supersedes the original model. The purpose of this report is to describe a revised groundwater-flow model including data collection, model calibration, and model results for the glacial aquifer system including the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers north of Aberdeen, South Dakota, using updated hydrologic data through WY 2015. The original numerical model was revised in several ways. The model was modified by adding four new layers, which included a surficial layer, two intervening confining layers, and a shale bedrock layer. The revised model provides an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system in comparison to the original model. The principal aquifers of the model area include portions of the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers. The lithologic information used to define and describe the aquifers in the model area was unaltered; however, aquifer properties and boundary conditions were reviewed and updated using geological information reported by the South Dakota Department of Environmental and Natural Resources and information obtained from geophysical investigations for this study. The horizontal extent of the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers was unaltered from the original model. The thickness of the Deep James aquifer was modified based on interpretations from the geophysical investigations. In general, groundwater in the Elm aquifer flowed from northwest to southeast and locally towards rivers and streams. Similarly, in the Middle James and Deep James aquifers, groundwater also typically flowed southeast. The revisions made to the original model include use of the following MODFLOW stress packages: Recharge, Evapotranspiration, Time-Variant Specified Head, Wells, Drains, and Stream Flow Routing, all of which were updated from the original model except for the Stream Flow Routing Package, which replaced the River Package used in the original model. Model calibration is the process of estimating model parameters to minimize the differences, or residuals, between observed data and simulated values; therefore, Parameter ESTimation (PEST) software was used to optimize model input parameters by matching model-simulated values to observed data. Calibration parameters included horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, and vertical streambed conductance for stream and drain cells. Multipliers were used to calibrate the recharge and evapotranspiration stresses. Evapotranspiration extinction depth also was adjusted during model calibration. Comparisons to the original model are described to highlight the changes made in the revised model. In general, the revised model adequately simulates the natural system and compares favorably with observed hydrologic data. Simulated water levels were evaluated by comparing them to single water-level observations at selected well locations. The selected wells were the same wells used in the original model. The coefficient of determination value between simulated and observed water levels for the revised model was 0.89 and included simulated and observed values from October 1, 1974 (WY 1975), through September 30, 2015 (WY 2015). The coefficient of determination value for the original model was 0.94 and included simulated and observed values from October 1, 1974, through September 30, 2009. The difference may indicate that the original model could have been overfit to hydraulic head observations because base flow was not simulated. The additional data used in the revised model included some climatically wetter, more extreme periods, such as 2011, in which annual precipitation was 30.9 inches. Average annual precipitation for the original model timeframe, which included data from WYs 1975–2009, was 20.26 inches. Additional precipitation data for WYs 2010–15, included in the revised model timeframe, resulted in an average annual precipitation for WYs 1975–2015 in the model area of 20.6 inches. The larger variability in climate data coupled with the additional water-level data could explain the lower coefficient of determination for water levels in the revised model. The revised model was used to calculate various groundwater-budget components for steady-state and transient conditions for WYs 1975–2015. The time-variant specified-head cells in the revised model had the largest change when compared to the original steady-state model for inflows and outflows. Comparing the transient budget components between the original and the revised models indicated that inflow from recharge and time-variant specified-head cells had the greatest effect on groundwater inflows, and outflow from storage had the greatest effect on groundwater outflows. The simulated potentiometric contours from the revised model were compared with (1) the observed (interpreted) potentiometric surface (layer 2) and the hydraulic head values (layers 4 and 6) and (2) the simulated contours from the original model. The simulated hydraulic gradients and general direction of groundwater flow in the Elm aquifer in the revised model generally matched the observed potentiometric contours, the simulated potentiometric contours from the original model, and general flow directions interpreted to be perpendicular to the contours. Minor discrepancies between simulated potentiometric contours from the revised model and the observed potentiometric contours may be due to the lack of observed data in the model area. The revised model was designed to reduce the limitations of the original model. The revisions were validated by comparing the results of the original model with the revised model. A primary benefit of the revised model is the inclusion of the surficial deposits and the confining units as explicit layers in the model. The addition of the surficial layer was beneficial for three primary reasons: (1) more accurate representation of recharge from precipitation, (2) more accurate representation of groundwater evapotranspiration, and (3) more accurate representation of groundwater and surface-water interactions. The groundwater model is a numeric approximation of a complex physical hydrologic system, and the revised model data were interpolated in regions with sparse data. Additionally, model discretization included averaged and interpolated values for water use, withdrawal rates, and hydraulic conductivity. The revised model provides a useful estimate for hydraulic gradients, groundwater-flow directions, and aquifer response to groundwater withdrawals.

South Dakota↗
USGS2017

Analysis of seafloor change around Dauphin Island, Alabama, 1987–2015

Dauphin Island is a 26-km-long barrier island located southwest of Mobile Bay, Alabama, in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The island contains sandy beaches, dunes, maritime forests, freshwater ponds and intertidal wetlands, providing habitat for many endangered and threatened species. Dauphin Island also provides protection for and maintains estuarine conditions within Mississippi Sound, supporting oyster habitat and seagrasses. Wetland marshes along the Alabama mainland are protected by the island from wave-induced erosion during storms approaching from the Gulf of Mexico. Over the years, the island has been eroded by storms, most recently by Hurricane Ivan (2004) and Hurricane Katrina (2005) (Ivan/Katrina), which breached the island along its narrowest extent and caused damage to infrastructure. Along with storms producing significant episodic change, long-term beach erosion has exposed numerous pine tree stumps in the shoreface. The stumps are remnants of past maritime forests and reflect the consistent landward retreat of the island. Island change has prompted the State of Alabama to evaluate restoration alternatives to increase island resilience and sustainability by protecting and preserving the natural habitat, and by understanding the processes that influence shoreline change. Under a grant from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, restoration alternatives are being developed that will allow the State to make decisions on engineering and ecological restoration designs based on scientific analysis of likely outcomes and tradeoffs between impacts to stakeholder interests. Science-based assessment of the coastal zone requires accurate and up-to-date baseline data to provide a valid image of present conditions and to support modeling of coastal processes. Bathymetric elevation measurements are essential to this requirement. In August 2015, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted single beam and multibeam bathymetric surveys around Dauphin Island using a variety of shallow draft vessels and equipment. More than 95 square kilometers of seafloor was imaged. The data were integrated into a seamless digital elevation model to provide a high-resolution bathymetric map of the seafloor extending 9.5 kilometers seaward from the island’s eastern end and approximately 2 km along the rest of the island on the gulf and sound sides. Water depths range from 0.3 to 15.0 meters (m), with depths greater than 10.0 m constrained to the Mobile ship channel on the extreme eastern flank of the coverage. To measure seafloor change, two periods of historic hydrographic survey data were acquired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information data archive. The two timeframes (1987–1988 and 2005–2007) were selected for their completeness of spatial coverage and because they encompass a period of significant storm impacts to the island. These timeframes were compared to each other and with the 2015 dataset to monitor elevation gain (sediment accretion) and elevation loss (sediment erosion) over time. Sediment dynamics is by far the most significant driver of nearshore elevation change in this area. The Mississippi-Alabama inner shelf is a passive margin, and other influences on elevation change (for example, tectonic adjustment, Holocene subsidence, and eustatic sea-level rise) are neither significant nor variable enough over this time period to have an imprint.

Alabama↗
USGS2009

Sand resources, regional geology, and coastal processes of the Chandeleur Islands Coastal System: An evaluation of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge

Breton National Wildlife Refuge, the Chandeleur Islands chain in Louisiana, provides habitat and nesting areas for wildlife and is an initial barrier protecting New Orleans from storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with the University of New Orleans Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences undertook an intensive study that included (1) an analysis of island change based on historical maps and remotely sensed shoreline and topographic data; (2) a series of lidar surveys at 3- to 4-month intervals after Hurricane Katrina to determine barrier island recovery potential; (3) a discussion of sea level rise and effects on the islands; (4) an analysis of sea floor evolution and sediment dynamics in the refuge over the past 150 years; (5) an assessment of the local sediment transport and sediment resource availability based on the bathymetric and subbottom data; (6) a carefully selected core collection effort to groundtruth the geophysical data and more fully characterize the sediments composing the islands and surrounds; (7) an additional survey of the St. Bernard Shoals to assess their potential as a sand resource; and (8) a modeling study to numerically simulate the potential response of the islands to the low-intensity, intermediate, and extreme events likely to affect the refuge over the next 50 years. Results indicate that the islands have become fragmented and greatly diminished in subaerial extent over time: the southern islands retreating landward as they reorganize into subaerial features, the northern islands remaining in place. Breton Island, because maintenance of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) outer bar channel requires dredging, is deprived of sand sufficient to sustain itself. Regional sediment transport trends indicate that large storms are extremely effective in transporting sand and controlling the shoreline development and barrier island geometry. Sand is transported north and south from a divergent zone near Monkey Bayou at the southern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Numerical simulation of waves and sediment transport supports the geophysical results and indicates that vast areas of the lower shoreface are affected and are undergoing erosion during storm events, that there is little or no fair weather mechanism to rework material into the littoral system, and that as a result, there is a net loss of sediment from the system. Lidar surveys revealed that the island chain immediately after Hurricane Katrina lost about 84 percent of its area and about 92 percent of its prestorm volume. Marsh platforms that supported the islands’ sand prior to the storm were reduced in width by more than one-half. Repeated lidar surveys document that in places the shoreline has retreated about 100 m under the relatively low-energy waves since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita; however, this retreat is nonuniform. Recent high-resolution geophysical surveys of the sea floor and subsurface within 5–6 km of the Chandeleur Islands during 2006 and 2007 show that, in addition to the sand that is rebuilding portions of the island chain, a large volume of sand is contained in Hewes Point, in an extensive subtidal spit platform that has formed at the northern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Hewes Point appears to be the depositional terminus of the alongshore transport system. In the southern Chandeleurs, sand is being deposited in a broad tabular deposit near Breton Island called the southern offshore sand sheet. These two depocenters account for approximately 70 percent of the estimated sediment volume located in potential borrow sites. An additional large potential source of sand for restoration lies in the St. Bernard Shoals, which are estimated to contain approximately 200 × 10 6 m 3 of sand. Successful restoration planning for the Breton National Wildlife Refuge should mimic the natural processes of early stages of barrier island evolution including lateral transport to the flanks of the island chain from a centralized sand source that will ultimately enhance the ability of the islands to naturally build backbarrier marsh, dunes, and a continuous sandy shoreline. Barrier island sediment nourishment should be executed with the understanding that gulf shoreline erosion is inevitable but that island area can be maintained and enhanced during retreat (thus significantly prolonging the life of the island chain) with strategic sand placement.

Louisiana↗
USGS2023

Appendix A: Modeling appendix for the Northwestern and Southwestern pond turtle (Actinemys marmorata , Actinemys pallida )

To predict future status of the northwestern pond turtle ( Actinemys marmorata ) and southwestern pond turtle ( Actinemys pallida ) species, we developed a stochastic stage-based matrix population model to simulate future population conditions. We constructed a demographic population viability analysis for each species based on a post-breeding, single sex, stage-based life history diagram elicited from taxa experts and derived from relevant literature. Demographic parameters were based on estimates from published literature and data provided to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Using the most recent observations of turtles, available habitat, local abundances, and current threat conditions, we calculated spatially explicit initial abundances to initialize our stochastic projection. In order to incorporate multiple types of uncertainty (ecological, parametric, temporal), we built three embedded simulation loops within the simulation model. Representing ecological uncertainty, species status was projected into the future using multiple plausible future scenarios based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 8.5) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2, 5) to reflect plausible alternative future trajectories of relevant environmental conditions. Parametric uncertainty was included for survival estimates of all life stages due the inconsistency of estimates across the species’ range. Temporal variability or environmental stochasticity was included in the form of randomized variation from the mean demographic parameter values in each year of the approximately 80-year simulation. The model output included probability of extinction and estimated abundance through 2100 for each unique Analysis Unit (AU) and for the full geographic range of the species except populations in the state of Washington. The AUs in Washington are conservation dependent and sustained by a head-starting and reintroduction program. Thus, the population dynamics do not match our model for the rest of the range and therefore the Washington AUs were included in this projection modeling effort. There is already pre-existing, detailed PVA for these specific populations (Pramuk et al. 2012, p.41-60), and the Status assessment report can use those results for inference about future status. We discuss the results of Pramuk et al. (2012, p.41-61) alongside our own. Probability of extinction was overall higher for the southwestern pond turtle as compared to the northwestern species and population growth rates were strongly negative for both species (approximately -3% annually for all AUs for all scenarios). This appendix is organized into three primary sections: 1) a description of the life history, the core population dynamics model, and demographic parameters, 2) a description of methods for establishing initial abundances of the populations for the future viability modeling, and 3) a description of the methods for modeling effects of various threats on future demographic rates and the results of future conditions scenarios.

Report↗
USGS2015

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

Regional Environmental Change↗
USGS1985

Stratigraphic and interregional changes in Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation: Environmental inferences

Quantitative analysis of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation provides a means of inferring organization and structure of communities. Distribution of these communities further provides inferences about environmental factors, including paleoclimate. Our observations are based on in situ, structurally preserved peat deposits in coal-ball concretions from 32 coal seams in the eastern one-half of the United States and from several seams in western Europe and on spore assemblages from more than 150 seams. There were three times of particularly significant and nearly synchronous vegetational changes in the Midcontinent and Appalachian coal regions during the Pennsylvanian Period. Each was different in kind and magnitude. The first marked changes occurred during the early part of the Middle Pennsylvanian with the fluctuating decline in the high level of lycopod dominance. The abundance of cordaites increased. There was a rise in the occurrences of the lycopod herbs to form intercalated marshlands and an overall increase in floral diversity. Changes ensuing from this time also include shifts in dominant species of lycopod trees and a sustained rise in abundance and diversity of tree-fern spores. The next significant time of change was during the middle part of the Middle Pennsylvanian, representing both a culmination of earlier trends and expansions of cordaites in the Midcontinent where there was a maximum change in species without net loss of diversity. Tree ferns and medullosan pteridosperms attained subdominant levels of abundance and diverse lycopod species dominated except in the Atokan-Desmoinesian transition of the Midcontinent. The third and sharpest break occurred near the Middle—Late Pennsylvanian boundary when extinctionsof the dominant, coal-swamp lycopods allowed development of tree-fern dominance. The Late Pennsylvanian coal swamps apparently were colonized or recolonized mainly by species from outside coal swamps rather than by the survivor populations of the Middle Pennsylvanian swamps. Paralleling the changes in floras through the Pennsylvanian are changes in preservational aspects of the peat. These include a decline in shoot/root ratios from approximately 1 to < 1 during the first time of vegetational changes and a rise in this ratio during the second; there was a parallel rise and fall in fusain abundance and a rise in wood/periderm ratios. The stratigraphic distribution of identified coal resources in the United States is interpreted as largely dependent on net changes in relative wetness of Pennsylvanian coal swamps, a pattern of drying during the first period of vegetational change, followed by a concomitant increase in continuous wet climate with brackish influence in the Midcontinent during the second; this was followed by a time of extreme moisture stress bringing on the third, and most severe, vegetational change.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2022

When do climate services achieve societal impact? Evaluations of actionable climate adaptation science

To cope with complex environmental impacts in a changing climate, researchers are increasingly being asked to produce science that can directly support policy and decision making. To achieve such societal impact, scientists are using climate services to engage directly with stakeholders to better understand their needs and inform knowledge production. However, the wide variety of climate-services outcomes—ranging from establishing collegial relationships with stakeholders to obtaining specific information for inclusion into a pre-existing decision process—do not directly connect to traditional methods of measuring scientific impact (e.g., publication citations, journal impact factor). In this paper, we describe how concepts from the discipline of evaluation can be used to examine the societal impacts of climate services. We also present a case study from climate impacts and adaptation research to test a scalable evaluation approach. Those who conduct research for the purposes of climate services and those who fund applied climate research would benefit from evaluation from the beginning of project development. Doing so will help ensure that the approach, data collection, and data analysis are appropriately conceived and executed.

Sustainability↗
USGS2022

A future for the inland fish and fisheries hidden within the sustainable development goals

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a unifying call for change - guiding global actions at multiple levels of governance for a better planet and better lives. Consequently, achieving the “future we want” may be hindered by overlooking valuable natural resources and services that are not explicitly included in the SDGs. Not recognizing the direct, intrinsic value of some natural resources may threaten the sustainability of the services they provide and their contributions to the SDGs. Here, we use inland aquatic ecosystems, and the fish and fisheries therein, as an example to explore opportunities for recognition and inclusion of other natural resources that are missing from the SDGs. Key resources absent from the SDGs are less likely to be incorporated in global, national, and regional objectives, dialogues, and policies. We outline multiple potential pathways for better inclusion and capitalization of contributions from these overlooked natural resources during the operationalization of the SDGs and other global instruments.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2009

Estimated Loads of Suspended Sediment and Selected Trace Elements Transported through the Milltown Reservoir Project Area Before and After the Breaching of Milltown Dam in the Upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, Water Year 2008

This report presents estimated daily and cumulative loads of suspended sediment and selected trace elements transported during water year 2008 at three streamflow-gaging stations that bracket the Milltown Reservoir project area in the upper Clark Fork basin of western Montana. Milltown Reservoir is a National Priorities List Superfund site where sediments enriched in trace elements from historical mining and ore processing have been deposited since the construction of Milltown Dam in 1907. Milltown Dam was breached on March 28, 2008, as part of Superfund remedial activities to remove the dam and contaminated sediment that had accumulated in Milltown Reservoir. The estimated loads transported through the project area during the periods before and after the breaching of Milltown Dam, and for the entire water year 2008, were used to quantify the net gain or loss (mass balance) of suspended sediment and trace elements within the project area during the transition from a reservoir environment to a free-flowing river. This study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Streamflow during water year 2008 compared to long-term streamflow, as represented by the record for Clark Fork above Missoula (water years 1930-2008), generally was below normal (long-term median) from about October 2007 through April 2008. Sustained runoff started in mid-April, which increased flows to near normal by mid-May. After mid-May, flows sharply increased to above normal, reaching a maximum daily mean streamflow of 16,800 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) on May 21, which essentially equaled the long-term 10th-exceedance percentile for that date. Flows substantially above normal were sustained through June, then decreased through the summer and reached near-normal by August. Annual mean streamflow during water year 2008 (3,040 ft3/s) was 105 percent of the long-term mean annual streamflow (2,900 ft3/s). The annual peak flow (17,500 ft3/s) occurred on May 21 and was 112 percent of the long-term mean annual peak flow (15,600 ft3/s). About 81 percent of the annual flow volume was discharged during the post-breach period. Daily loads of suspended sediment were estimated directly by using high-frequency sampling of the daily sediment monitoring. Daily loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc were estimated by using regression equations relating trace-element discharge to either streamflow or suspended-sediment discharge. Regression equations for estimating trace-element discharge in water year 2008 were developed from instantaneous streamflow and concentration data for periodic water-quality samples collected during all or part of water years 2004-08. The equations were applied to records of daily mean streamflow or daily suspended-sediment loads to produce estimated daily trace-element loads. Variations in daily suspended-sediment and trace-element loads generally coincided with variations in streamflow. Relatively small to moderately large daily net losses from the project area were common during the pre-breach period when low-flow conditions were prevalent. Outflow loads from the project area sharply increased immediately after the breaching of Milltown Dam and during the rising limb and peak flow of the annual hydrograph. Net losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the project area decreased as streamflow decreased during the summer, eventually becoming small or reaching an approximate net balance between inflow and outflow. Estimated daily loads of suspended sediment and trace elements for all three stations were summed to determine cumulative inflow and outflow loads for the pre-breach and post-breach periods, as well as for the entire water year 2008. Overall, the mass balance between the combined inflow loads from two upstream source areas (upper Clark Fork and Blackfoot River basins) and the outflow loads at Clark Fork above Missoula indicates net losses

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Dust emission at Franklin Lake Playa, Mojave Desert (USA): Response to meteorological and hydrologic changes 2005-2008

Playa type, size, and setting; playa hydrology; and surface-sediment characteristics are important controls on the type and amount of atmospheric dust emitted from playas. Soft, evaporite-rich sediment develops on the surfaces of some Mojave Desert (USA) playas (wet playas), where the water table is shallow (< 4 m). These areas are sources of atmospheric dust because of continuous or episodic replenishment of wind-erodible salts and disruption of the ground surface during salt formation by evaporation of ground water. Dust emission at Franklin Lake playa was monitored between March 2005 and April 2008. The dust record, based on day-time remote digital camera images captured during high wind, and compared with a nearby precipitation record, shows that aridity suppresses dust emission. High frequency of dust generation appears to be associated with relatively wet periods, identified as either heavy precipitation events or sustained regional precipitation over a few months. Several factors may act separately or in combination to account for this relation. Dust emission may respond rapidly to heavy precipitation when the dissolution of hard, wind-resistant evaporite mineral crusts is followed by the development of soft surfaces with thin, newly formed crusts that are vulnerable to wind erosion and (or) the production of loose aggregates of evaporite minerals that are quickly removed by even moderate winds. Dust loading may also increase when relatively high regional precipitation leads to decreasing depth to the water table, thereby increasing rates of vapor discharge, development of evaporite minerals, and temporary softening of playa surfaces. The seasonality of wind strength was not a major factor in dust-storm frequency at the playa. The lack of major dust emissions related to flood-derived sediment at Franklin Lake playa contrasts with some dry-lake systems elsewhere that may produce large amounts of dust from flood sediments. Flood sediments do not commonly accumulate on the surface of Franklin Lake playa because through-going drainage prevents frequent inundation and deposition of widespread flood sediment.

Natural Resources and Environmental Issues↗
USGS2010

An index of reservoir habitat impairment

Fish habitat impairment resulting from natural and anthropogenic watershed and in-lake processes has in many cases reduced the ability of reservoirs to sustain native fish assemblages and fisheries quality. Rehabilitation of impaired reservoirs is hindered by the lack of a method suitable for scoring impairment status. To address this limitation, an index of reservoir habitat impairment (IRHI) was developed by merging 14 metrics descriptive of common impairment sources, with each metric scored from 0 (no impairment) to 5 (high impairment) by fisheries scientists with local knowledge. With a plausible range of 5 to 25, distribution of the IRHI scores ranged from 5 to 23 over 482 randomly selected reservoirs dispersed throughout the USA. The IRHI reflected five impairment factors including siltation, structural habitat, eutrophication, water regime, and aquatic plants. The factors were weakly related to key reservoir characteristics including reservoir area, depth, age, and usetype, suggesting that common reservoir descriptors are poor predictors of fish habitat impairment. The IRHI is rapid and inexpensive to calculate, provides an easily understood measure of the overall habitat impairment, allows comparison of reservoirs and therefore prioritization of restoration activities, and may be used to track restoration progress. The major limitation of the IRHI is its reliance on unstandardized professional judgment rather than standardized empirical measurements. ?? 2010 US Government.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗