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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS1996

South Florida Ecosystem Program web site

Introduction The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Program is an intergovernmental effort, involving a number of agencies, to reestablish and maintain the ecosystem of south Florida. One element of the restoration effort is the development of a firm scientific basis for resource decision making. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), one of the agencies, provides scientific information a part of the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Program (SFEP). The USGS began their own program, called the South Florida Ecosystem Program, in fiscal year 1995 for the purpose of gathering hydrologic, cartographic, geologic, and biologic data that relate to the mainland of south Florida, Florida Bay, and the Florida Keys and Reef ecosystems.

Florida↗
USGS2004

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems. Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO 2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency, but the consequences of this growth enhancement for the ecosystem are unknown.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2004

Belowground dynamics in mangrove ecosystems

Mangrove ecosystems are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal communities are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services (fig. 1). Mangrove wetlands are important filters of materials moving between the land and sea, trapping sediment, nutrients, and pollutants in runoff from uplands and preventing their direct introduction into sensitive marine ecosystems such as seagrass beds and coral reefs. Mangroves serve as nursery grounds and refuge for a variety of organisms and are consequently vital to the biological productivity of coastal waters. Furthermore, because mangroves are highly resilient to disturbances such as hurricanes, they represent a self-sustaining, protective barrier for human populations living in the coastal zone. Mangrove ecosystems also contribute to shoreline stabilization through consolidation of unstable mineral sediments and peat formation. In order to help conserve mangrove ecoystems, scientists with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand the dynamics that impact these vital ecosystems.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2010

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Western Region: Coastal ecosystem responses to influences from land and sea, Coastal and Ocean Science

Sea otters and the nearshore ecosystems they inhabit-from highly urbanized California to relatively pristine Alaska-are the focus of a new multidisciplinary study by scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and a suite of international, academic and government collaborators. The Coastal Ecosystem Responses to Influences from Land and Sea project will investigate the many interacting variables that influence the health of coastal ecosystems along the Northeast Pacific shore. These ecosystems face unprecedented challenges, with threats arising from the adjacent oceans and lands. From the ocean, challenges include acidification, sea level rise, and warming. From the land, challenges include elevated biological, geological and chemical pollutants associated with burgeoning human populations along coastlines. The implications of these challenges for biological systems are only beginning to be explored. Comparing sea otter population status indicators from around the northeastern Pacific Rim, will begin the process of defining factors of coastal ecosystem health in this broad region.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2011

Early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project

The northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region and its diverse ecosystems are threatened by population and development pressure and by the impacts of rising sea level and severe storms such as the series of hurricanes that has impacted the northern Gulf in recent years. In response to the complex management issues facing the region, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) organized a multidisciplinary research program to coordinate the activities of USGS and other scientists working in the northern Gulf of Mexico region (fig. 1). The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project aims to develop a thorough understanding of the dynamic coastal ecosystems on the northern Gulf coast, the impact of human activities on these ecosystems, and the vulnerability of ecosystems and human communities to more frequent and more intense hurricanes in the future. A special issue of Geo-Marine Letters published in December 2009 is devoted to early results of studies completed as part of this project. These studies, which have been conducted at sites throughout the northern Gulf region, from the Chandeleur Islands to Apalachicola Bay, have focused on three themes: (1) The underlying geologic framework that exerts controls over coastal processes (2) The impact of human activities on nearshore water quality (3) Hurricanes and associated effects

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2010

Ecosystem health in mineralized terrane — Data from podiform chromite (Chinese Camp mining district, California), quartz alunite (Castle Peak and Masonic mining districts, Nevada/California), and Mo/Cu porphyry (Battle Mountain mining district, Nevada) deposits

The myriad definitions of soil/ecosystem quality or health are often driven by ecosystem and management concerns, and they typically focus on the ability of the soil to provide functions relating to biological productivity and/or environmental quality. A variety of attempts have been made to create indices that quantify the complexities of soil quality and provide a means of evaluating the impact of various natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Though not without their limitations, indices can improve our understanding of the controls behind ecosystem processes and allow for the distillation of information to help link scientific and management communities. In terrestrial systems, indices were initially developed and modified for agroecosystems; however, the number of studies implementing such indices in nonagricultural systems is growing. Soil quality indices (SQIs) are typically composed of biological (and sometimes physical and chemical) parameters that attempt to reduce the complexity of a system into a metric of a soil’s ability to carry out one or more functions. The indicators utilized in SQIs can be as varied as the studies themselves, reflecting the complexity of the soil and ecosystems in which they function. Regardless, effective soil quality indicators should correlate well with soil or ecosystem processes, integrate those properties and processes, and be relevant to management practices. Commonly applied biological indicators include measures associated with soil microbial activity or function (for example, carbon and nitrogen mineralization, respiration, microbial biomass, enzyme activity. Cost, accessibility, ease of interpretation, and presence of existing data often dictate indicator selection given the number of available measures. We employed a large number of soil biological, chemical, and physical measures, along with measures of vegetation cover, density, and productivity, in order to test the utility and sensitivity of these measures within various mineralized terranes. We were also interested in examining these relations in the context of determining appropriate reference conditions with which to compare reclamation efforts. The purpose of this report is to present the data used to develop indices of soil and ecosystem quality associated with mineralized terranes (areas enriched in metal-bearing minerals), specifically podiform chromite, quartz alunite, and Mo/Cu porphyry systems. Within each of these mineralized terranes, a nearby unmineralized counterpart was chosen for comparison. The data consist of soil biological, chemical, and physical parameters, along with vegetation measurements for each of the sites described below. Synthesis of these data and index development will be the subject of future publications.

California↗
USGS2011

An inventory and monitoring plan for a Sonoran Desert ecosystem; Barry M. Goldwater Range-West

Marine Corps Air Station Yuma manages the Barry M. Goldwater Range-West, which encompasses approximately 2,800 square kilometers of Sonoran Desert habitat in southwestern Arizona. The Barry M. Goldwater Range is a major U.S. military installation designed as an air combat training location for the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force, but it also includes some of the most pristine desert habitat in the United States. In an effort to ensure the long-term viability of this unique natural resource, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan and Inventory and Monitoring Plan to guide natural resource management of the Barry M. Goldwater Range-West. This Inventory and Monitoring Plan provides a framework for long-term ecosystem monitoring on Barry M. Goldwater Range-West lands by identifying existing and potential threats to ecosystem function, prioritizing resources for monitoring, and providing information and protocols necessary to initiate a long-term ecosystem monitoring program. The Inventory and Monitoring Plan and related protocols were developed through extensive review of existing Sonoran Desert monitoring programs and monitoring literature and through a 2-day workshop with resource managers, monitoring experts, and other stakeholders. The Barry M. Goldwater Range-West Inventory and Monitoring Plan stresses the importance of regional monitoring partnerships and protocol standardization for understanding landscape-scale ecosystem changes in the Sonoran Desert; information and protocols contained within the plan may also be of interest to land managers engaged in large-scale ecosystem monitoring and adaptive management of other arid regions.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Social values for ecosystem services (SolVES): Documentation and user manual, version 2.0

In response to the need for incorporating quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem services assessments, the Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center (RMGSC), in collaboration with Colorado State University, developed a geographic information system (GIS) application, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES). With version 2.0 (SolVES 2.0), RMGSC has improved and extended the functionality of SolVES, which was designed to assess, map, and quantify the perceived social values of ecosystem services. Social values such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and recreation can be evaluated for various stakeholder groups as distinguished by their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses, such as motorized recreation and logging. As with the previous version, SolVES 2.0 derives a quantitative, 10-point, social-values metric, the Value Index, from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public attitude and preference surveys and calculates metrics characterizing the underlying environment, such as average distance to water and dominant landcover. Additionally, SolVES 2.0 integrates Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social value maps and to produce robust statistical models describing the relationship between the social values maps and explanatory environmental variables. The performance of these models can be evaluated for a primary study area, as well as for similar areas where primary survey data are not available but where social value mapping could potentially be completed using value-transfer methodology. SolVES 2.0 also introduces the flexibility for users to define their own social values and public uses, model any number and type of environmental variable, and modify the spatial resolution of analysis. With these enhancements, SolVES 2.0 provides an improved public domain tool for decisionmakers and researchers to evaluate the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding the tradeoffs among different ecosystem services in a variety of physical and social contexts ranging from forest and rangeland to coastal and marine.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Social Values for Ecosystem Services, version 3.0 (SolVES 3.0): documentation and user manual

The geographic information system (GIS) tool, S ocial V alues for E cosystem S ervices (SolVES), was developed to incorporate quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem service assessments. SolVES 3.0 continues to extend the functionality of SolVES, which was designed to assess, map, and quantify the social values of ecosystem services. Social values—the perceived, nonmarket values the public ascribes to ecosystem services, particularly cultural services, such as aesthetics and recreation—can be evaluated for various stakeholder groups. These groups are distinguishable by their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses, such as motorized recreation and logging. As with previous versions, SolVES 3.0 derives a quantitative 10-point, social-values metric—the value index—from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public value and preference surveys. The tool also calculates metrics characterizing the underlying environment, such as average distance to water and dominant landcover. SolVES 3.0 is integrated with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps and offer robust statistical models describing the relationship between the value index and explanatory environmental variables. A model’s goodness of fit to a primary study area and its potential performance in transferring social values to similar areas using value-transfer methodology can be evaluated. SolVES 3.0 provides an improved public-domain tool for decision makers and researchers to evaluate the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding the tradeoffs among ecosystem services in a variety of physical and social contexts ranging from forest and rangeland to coastal and marine.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Development of an online reporting format to facilitate the inclusion of ecosystem services into Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program reports

The Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program is a program administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency. The Secretary of Agriculture is required to submit an annual report to Congress on Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program agreements that, among other things, reports on the progress made towards fulfilling commitments outlined in the agreements. The U.S. Geological Survey developed an online reporting form designed to ensure that consistent information is submitted to the Farm Service Agency from Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program State partners. Combined with the automated importation of text from partner-provided forms to word-processing documents, individual State reports and annual reports to Congress can now be produced efficiently and in a standardized format. Use of a standardized reporting format will also assist the Farm Service Agency in collecting information needed to support ecosystem service quantifications that go beyond the quantifications required from partners to document progress towards meeting the specific purposes and objectives identified in each agreement. Addition of these overarching conservation effect quantifications builds upon past ecosystem services modeling efforts based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs suite of open-source software models; these offer a spatially explicit means to quantify additional ecosystem services across diverse partners in a consistent manner. Data sources are currently available to provide much of the information needed to run these models and complete simulations that would facilitate the quantification and reporting of the societal values of conservation actions taken under the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. It is the aim of this report to provide the information needed to move towards widescale monitoring of the Nation’s ecosystem services in a natural accounting framework, similar to the framework used to value financial and human capital.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1997

Ecosystem history of South Florida; Biscayne Bay sediment core descriptions

The 'Ecosystem History of Biscayne Bay and the southeast Coast' project of the U.S. Geological Survey is part of a multi-disciplinary effort that includes Florida Bay and the Everglades to provide paleoecologic reconstructions for the south Florida region. Reconstructions of past salinity, nutrients, substrate, and water quality are needed to determine ecosystem variability due to both natural and human-induced causes. Our understanding of the relations between the south Florida ecosystem and introduced forces will allow managers to make informed decisions regarding the south Florida ecosystem restoration and monitoring. The record of past ecosystem conditions can be found in shallow sediment cores. This U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report describes six shallow sediment cores collected from Biscayne Bay. The cores described herein are being processed for a variety of analytical procedures, and this provides the descriptive framework for future analyses of the included cores. This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial standards or with the North American Stratigraphic Code. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow ecology: Actions towards recovery through landscape-scale ecosystem restoration

Understanding the ecology of endangered taxa and the factors affecting their population growth and decline is imperative for their recovery. In the southeastern USA, the Everglades wetland ecosystem supports a high diversity of species and communities, including many endemic and imperiled taxa, such as the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow Ammospiza maritima mirabilis (CSSS). The Everglades, once a completely connected wetland with a slow-moving sheet flow of water, is now compartmentalized into separated wetland units where water distribution is managed year-round. The CSSS is affected by, and at the crux of, many Everglades ecosystem restoration decisions. The CSSS faces conservation challenges, including limited habitat availability, low population numbers, dispersal limitations, and constraints on suitable breeding conditions owing to wetland water levels. Despite these challenges, ecological knowledge of the factors affecting CSSS population numbers in the context of ongoing ecosystem-level restoration can help inform protection of this bird while restoring the Everglades. Existing research shows target hydroperiods between 90 and 210 days, a minimum of 90 consecutive dry days during the breeding season, and non-breeding season fires approximately every 5-10 years may aid in CSSS recovery. There are numerous tools and models to support habitat and water management for the CSSS, and the most recent ecosystem-level water operations plan for the Everglades indicates potential for increased CSSS habitat. Here, we provide a review on the ecology of the CSSS, factors affecting population decline, and ecosystem-level restoration actions that may aid in CSSS recovery.

Dlorida↗
USGS2007

Seabirds as indicators of marine ecosystems: Introduction: A modern role for seabirds as indicators

A key requirement for implementing ecosystem-based management is to obtain timely information on significant fluctuations in the ecosystem (Botsford et al. 1997). However, obtaining all necessary information about physical and biological changes at appropriate temporal and spatial scales is a daunting task. Intuitively, one might assume that physical data are more important for the interpretation of ecosystem changes than biological data, but analyses of time series data suggest otherwise: physical data are more erratic and often confusing over the short term compared to biological data, which tend to fluctuate less on annual time scales (Hare & Mantua 2000). Even so, biological time-series may also be confusing when coexisting marine species respond differently to ecosystem variability. For example, while warming temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska following the 1976 to 1977 regime shift favored an increase in gadoids and flatfish, a variety of forage fish and pandalid shrimp species virtually disappeared (Anderson & Piatt 1999). Zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Alaska also demonstrated similar patterns of response (Francis et al. 1998). At the basin scale, favorable conditions for salmon in Alaska following the regime shift were matched inversely by poor conditions in the California Current (Francis et al. 1998). In marine birds, subtropical species increased, while subarctic ones decreased during a warming phase in the southern California Bight. Clearly, no single index can tell the whole story accurately. Multi-species, multi-region, and multi-trophic level approaches are needed to quantify fluctuations in marine ecosystem processes and in the distribution and abundance of its inhabitants, to determine critical parameter thresholds and to use this information in management and marine conservation.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2026

Advancing ecosystem recovery with diverse species plantings in tropical forest restoration

Tropical forest restoration has increased in the past decades, with possible advancements given the UN declaration of the “Decade of Ecosystem Restoration”. However, robust assessments to compare ecosystem functions among restored forest stages are essential. We evaluated 13 actively restored forest stands ranging from 3 to 21 years of age and compared measures of forest biodiversity, structure, and ecosystem function to four 70+ year old “reference” stands that serve as restoration “targets” in the study region of the Premontane wet forest of Costa Rica. The restored stands were planted with an average of 13 tree species on abandoned pastures that were fallow for at least two years. Sixteen tree-stand attributes and six ecosystem function estimates were assessed, including: annual biomass (C) accumulation, N-fixation potential, threatened species conservation, and the provision of avian frugivore forage, insect habitat, and insect pollination. Using Principal Component Analysis, linear modeling, and Mahalanobis distance analyses, we learned that planting a diversity of tree species sets the stage for forest recovery at early restoration ages, with an inflection point at 15 years towards older reference forest characteristics and functions. Given that all restoration ages provided tree diversity and some level of ecosystem functions, the value of all restored stands in the landscape is notable. The assessment methods are easily employed, thereby providing an accessible tool to restoration practitioners.

Monteverde↗
USGS2026

Mangrove microbiomes as drivers of ecosystem recovery and restoration success

The microbes found in the rhizosphere, roots, leaves and stem surfaces and within the internal tissues of mangrove vegetation and their environment constitute the microbiome of the ecosystem. The organisms in the microbiome include bacteria, protozoa, fungi, algae, amoebas, and slime molds, which assist in maintaining and restoring mangrove ecosystems. This review explores the role of microbiomes in the maintenance of healthy mangrove ecosystems and in the successful restoration of degraded mangrove ecosystems. Microbes have important roles in several geomicrobiological cycles shaping mangrove ecosystems, including transforming nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon, sulfur and iron in biogeochemical cycles. Mangrove microbiomes contribute to the adaptation of vegetation to the harsh abiotic conditions in coastal areas, enhance nutrient uptake, produce plant-growth-promoting substances, and degrade the mangrove litter and the pollutants that can hinder restoration. Soil microbes function as biofertilizers, biopesticides, and bioremediation agents. The microbial diversity, composition, and functional capacity are important in the restoration of mangroves through their influence on voluntary recruitment following hydrologic restoration, on the establishment success of planted seeds and propagules, and on the survival of transplanted saplings and nursery-raised seedlings. The knowledge of the beneficial attributes of the microbiome can enhance the overall success of mangrove restoration. Identifying future needs, such as microbial inoculant validation, field-scale trials, and integration with hydrological restoration, are essential.

Microorganisms↗
USGS2024

On connecting hydro-social parameters to vegetation greenness differences in an evolving groundwater-dependent ecosystem

Understanding groundwater-dependent ecosystems (i.e., areas with a relatively shallow water table that plays a major role in supporting vegetation health) is key to sustaining water resources in the western United States. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) in Colorado have non-pristine temporal and spatial patterns, compared to agro-ecosystems, which make it difficult to quantify how these ecosystems are impacted by changes in water availability. The goal of this study is to examine how key hydrosocial parameters perturb GDE water use in time and in space. The temporal approach tests for the additive impacts of precipitation, surface water discharge, surface water mass balance as a surrogate for surface–groundwater exchange, and groundwater depth on the monthly Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatial approach tests for the additive impacts of river confluences, canal augmentation, development, perennial tributary confluences, and farmland modification on temporally integrated NDVI. Model results show a temporal trend (monthly, 1984–2019) is identifiable along segments of the Arkansas River at resolutions finer than 10 km. The temporal impacts of river discharge correlate with riparian water use sooner in time compared to precipitation, but this result is spatially variable and dependent on the covariates tested. Spatially, areal segments of the Arkansas River that have confluences with perennial streams have increased cumulative vegetation density. Quantifying temporal and spatial dependencies between the sources and effects of GDEs could aid in preventing the loss of a vulnerable ecosystem to increased water demand, changing climate, and evolving irrigation methodologies.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

California↗