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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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USGS2020

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scale: State of the art and future challenges

Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic-source and ground-motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modelling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time-dependent and specific to the time-period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state-of-the-art of the national seismic hazard modeling, and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2012

Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in the United States--the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion

Detecting, quantifying, and projecting historical and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) has emerged as a core research area for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Changes in LULC are important drivers of changes to biogeochemical cycles, the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, biodiversity, water quality, and climate change. To quantify the rates of recent historical LULC change, the USGS Land Cover Trends project recently completed a unique ecoregion-based assessment of late 20th century LULC change for the western United States. To characterize present LULC, the USGS and partners have created the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 1992, 2001, and 2006. Both Land Cover Trends and NLCD projects continue to evolve in an effort to better characterize historical and present LULC conditions and are the foundation of the data presented in this report. Projecting future changes in LULC requires an understanding of the rates and patterns of change, the major driving forces, and the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants and capacities of regions. The data presented in this report is the result of an effort by USGS scientists to downscale the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) to ecoregions of the conterminous United States as part of the USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment. The USGS biological carbon assessment was mandated by Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. As part of the legislative mandate, the USGS is required to publish a methodology describing, in detail, the approach to be used for the assessment. The development of future LULC scenarios is described in chapter 3.2 and appendix A. Spatial modeling is described in chapter 3.3.2 and appendix B and in Sohl and others (2011). In this report, we briefly summarize the major components and methods used to downscale IPCC-SRES scenarios to ecoregions of the conterminous United States, followed by a description of the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion, and lastly a description of the data being published as part of this report.

California;Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2022

The future of coastal monitoring through satellite remote sensing

Satellite remote sensing is transforming coastal science from a “data-poor” field into a “data-rich” field. Sandy beaches are dynamic landscapes that change in response to long-term pressures, short-term pulses, and anthropogenic interventions. Until recently, the rate and breadth of beach change have outpaced our ability to monitor those changes, due to the spatiotemporal limitations of our observational capacity. Over the past several decades, only a handful of beaches worldwide have been regularly monitored with accurate yet expensive in situ surveys. The long-term coastal-change data of these few well-monitored beaches have led to in-depth understanding of many site-specific coastal processes. However, because the best-monitored beaches are not representative of all beaches, much remains unknown about the processes and fate of the other >99% of unmonitored beaches worldwide. The fleet of Earth-observing satellites has enabled multiscale monitoring of beaches, for the very first time, by providing imagery with global coverage and up to daily frequency. The long-standing and ever-expanding archive of satellite imagery will enable coastal scientists to investigate coastal change at sites vulnerable to future sea-level rise, that is, (almost) everywhere. In the past decade, our capability to observe coastal change from space has grown substantially with computing and algorithmic power. Yet, further advances are needed in automating monitoring using machine learning, deep learning, and computer vision to fully leverage this massive treasure trove of data. Extensive monitoring and investigation of the causes and effects of coastal change at the requisite spatiotemporal scales will provide coastal managers with additional, valuable information to evaluate problems and solutions, addressing the potential for widespread beach loss due to accelerated sea-level rise, development, and reduced sediment supply. Monitoring from Earth-observing satellites is currently the only means of providing seamless data with high spatiotemporal resolution at the global scale of the impending impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures↗

USGS2024

Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path

Debris-flow volumes can increase along their flow path by entraining sediment stored in the channel bed and banks, thus also increasing hazard potential. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments and field investigations all indicate that the saturation conditions of the sediment along the flow path can greatly influence the amount of sediment entrained. However, this process is usually not considered for practical applications. This study aims to close this gap by combining runout and hydrological models into a predictive framework that is calibrated and tested using unique observations of sediment erosion and debris-flow properties available at a Swiss debris-flow observation station (Illgraben). To this end, hourly water input to the erodible channel is predicted using a simple, process-based hydrological model, and the resulting water saturation level in the upper sediment layer of the channel is modelled based on a Hortonian infiltration concept. Debris-flow entrainment is then predicted using the RAMMS debris-flow runout model. We find a strong correlation between the modelled saturation level of the sediment on the flow path and the channel-bed erodibility for single-surge debris-flow events with distinct fronts, indicating that the modelled water content is a good predictor for erosion simulated in RAMMS. Debris-flow properties with more complex flow behaviour (e.g., multiple surges or roll waves) are not as well predicted using this procedure, indicating that more physically complete models are necessary. Finally, we demonstrate how this modelling framework can be used for climate change impact assessment and show that earlier snowmelt may shift the peak of the debris-flow season to earlier in the year. Our novel modelling framework provides a plausible approach to reproduce saturation-dependent entrainment and thus better constrain event volumes for current and future hazard assessment.

Illgraben basin↗

USGS2009

The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise

Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise, where codes that simulate spontaneous rupture dynamics in three dimensions are evaluated and the results produced by these codes are compared using Web-based tools. This is the first time that a broad and rigorous examination of numerous spontaneous rupture codes has been performed—a significant advance in this science. The automated process developed to attain this achievement provides for a future where testing of codes is easily accomplished. Scientists who use computer simulations to understand earthquakes utilize a range of techniques. Most of these assume that earthquakes are caused by slip at depth on faults in the Earth, but hereafter the strategies vary. Among the methods used in earthquake mechanics studies are kinematic approaches and dynamic approaches. The kinematic approach uses a computer code that prescribes the spatial and temporal evolution of slip on the causative fault (or faults). These types of simulations are very helpful, especially since they can be used in seismic data inversions to relate the ground motions recorded in the field to slip on the fault(s) at depth. However, these kinematic solutions generally provide no insight into the physics driving the fault slip or information about why the involved fault(s) slipped that much (or that little). In other words, these kinematic solutions may lack information about the physical dynamics of earthquake rupture that will be most helpful in forecasting future events. To help address this issue, some researchers use computer codes to numerically simulate earthquakes and construct dynamic, spontaneous rupture (hereafter called “spontaneous rupture”) solutions. For these types of numerical simulations, rather than prescribing the slip function at each location on the fault(s), just the friction constitutive properties and initial stress conditions are prescribed. The subsequent stresses and fault slip spontaneously evolve over time as part of the elasto-dynamic solution. Therefore, spontaneous rupture computer simulations of earthquakes allow us to include everything that we know, or think that we know, about earthquake dynamics and to test these ideas against earthquake observations.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2005

Multi-platform comparisons of MODIS and AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index data

The relationship between AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values and those of future sensors is critical to continued long-term monitoring of land surface properties. The follow-on operational sensor to the AVHRR, the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), will be very similar to the NASA Earth Observing System's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. NDVI data derived from visible and near-infrared data acquired by the MODIS (Terra and Aqua platforms) and AVHRR (NOAA-16 and NOAA-17) sensors were compared over the same time periods and a variety of land cover classes within the conterminous United States. The results indicate that the 16-day composite NDVI values are quite similar over the composite intervals of 2002 and 2003, and linear relationships exist between the NDVI values from the various sensors. The composite AVHRR NDVI data included water and cloud masks and adjustments for water vapor as did the MODIS NDVI data. When analyzed over a variety of land cover types and composite intervals, the AVHRR derived NDVI data were associated with 89% or more of the variation in the MODIS NDVI values. The results suggest that it may be possible to successfully reprocess historical AVHRR data sets to provide continuity of NDVI products through future sensor systems.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2019

Imaging spectroscopy for the detection, assessment and monitoring of natural and anthropogenic hazards

Natural and anthropogenic hazards have the potential to impact all aspects of society including its economy and the environment. Diagnostic data to inform decision-making are critical for hazard management whether for emergency response, routine monitoring or assessments of potential risks. Imaging spectroscopy (IS) has unique contributions to make via the ability to provide some key quantitative diagnostic information. In this paper, we examine a selection of key case histories representing the state of the art to gain an insight into the achievements and perspectives in the use of visible to shortwave infrared IS for the detection, assessment and monitoring of a selection of significant natural and anthropogenic hazards. The selected key case studies examined provide compelling evidence for the use of the IS technology and its ability to contribute diagnostic information currently unattainable from operational spaceborne Earth observation systems. User requirements for the applications were also evaluated. The evaluation showed that the projected launch of spaceborne IS sensors in the near-, mid and long term future, together with the increasing availability, quality and moderate cost of off the shelf sensors, the possibilities to couple unmanned autonomous systems with miniaturized sensors, should be able to meet these requirements. The challenges and opportunities for the scientific community in the future when such data become available will then be ensuring consistency between data from different sensors, developing techniques to efficiently handle, process, integrate and deliver the large volumes of data, and most importantly translating the data to information that meets specific needs of the user community in a form that can be digested/understood by them. The latter is especially important to transforming the technology from a scientific to an operational tool. Additionally, the information must be independently validated using current trusted practices and uncertainties quantified before IS derived measurement can be integrated into operational monitoring services.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Terrestrial reference standard sites for postlaunch sensor calibration

In an era when the number of Earth observation satellites is rapidly growing and measurements from satellite sensors are used to address increasingly urgent global issues, often through synergistic and operational combinations of data from multiple sources, it is imperative that scientists and decision-makers are able to rely on the accuracy of Earth observation data products. The characterization and calibration of these sensors, particularly their relative biases, are vital to the success of the developing integrated Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for coordinated and sustained observations of the Earth. This can only reliably be achieved in the postlaunch environment through the careful use of observations by multiple sensor systems over common, well-characterized terrestrial targets (i.e., on or near the Earth's surface). Through greater access to and understanding of these vital reference standard sites and their use, the validity and utility of information gained from Earth remote sensing will continue to improve. This paper provides a brief overview of the use of reference standard sites for postlaunch sensor radiometric calibration from historical, current, and future perspectives. Emphasis is placed on optical sensors operating in the visible, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared spectral regions.

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2008

Optimized Autonomous Space In-situ Sensor-Web for volcano monitoring

In response to NASA's announced requirement for Earth hazard monitoring sensor-web technology, a multidisciplinary team involving sensor-network experts (Washington State University), space scientists (JPL), and Earth scientists (USGS Cascade Volcano Observatory (CVO)), is developing a prototype dynamic and scaleable hazard monitoring sensor-web and applying it to volcano monitoring. The combined Optimized Autonomous Space -In-situ Sensor-web (OASIS) will have two-way communication capability between ground and space assets, use both space and ground data for optimal allocation of limited power and bandwidth resources on the ground, and use smart management of competing demands for limited space assets. It will also enable scalability and seamless infusion of future space and in-situ assets into the sensor-web. The prototype will be focused on volcano hazard monitoring at Mount St. Helens, which has been active since October 2004. The system is designed to be flexible and easily configurable for many other applications as well. The primary goals of the project are: 1) integrating complementary space (i.e., Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite) and in-situ (ground-based) elements into an interactive, autonomous sensor-web; 2) advancing sensor-web power and communication resource management technology; and 3) enabling scalability for seamless infusion of future space and in-situ assets into the sensor-web. To meet these goals, we are developing: 1) a test-bed in-situ array with smart sensor nodes capable of making autonomous data acquisition decisions; 2) efficient self-organization algorithm of sensor-web topology to support efficient data communication and command control; 3) smart bandwidth allocation algorithms in which sensor nodes autonomously determine packet priorities based on mission needs and local bandwidth information in real-time; and 4) remote network management and reprogramming tools. The space and in-situ control components of the system will be integrated such that each element is capable of autonomously tasking the other. Sensor-web data acquisition and dissemination will be accomplished through the use of the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensorweb Enablement protocols. The three-year project will demonstrate end-to-end system performance with the in-situ test-bed at Mount St. Helens and NASA's EO-1 platform. ??2008 IEEE.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2024

Physics-based forecasts of eruptive vent locations at calderas

Constraining stresses in the Earth's crust in volcanic regions is critical for understanding many mechanical processes related to eruptive activity. Dike pathways, in particular, are shaped by the orientation of principal stress axes. Therefore, accurate models of dike trajectories and future vent locations rely on accurate estimates of stresses in the subsurface. This work presents a framework for probabilistic constraint of the stress state of calderas by combining three-dimensional physics-based dike pathway models with observed past vent locations using a Monte Carlo approach. The retrieved stress state is then used to produce probability maps of future vent opening across a caldera. We test our stress inversion and vent forecast approach on synthetic scenarios, and find it successful depending on the distribution of the available vents and the complexity of the volcano's structural history. We explore the potential and limitations of the approach, show how its performance is sensitive to the assumptions in the models and available prior information, and discuss how it may be applied to real calderas.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS2021

The 2011-2019 Long Valley Caldera inflation: New insights from separation of superimposed geodetic signals and 3D modeling

Increasingly accurate, and spatio-temporally dense, measurements of Earth surface movements enable us to identify multiple deformation patterns and highlight the need to properly characterize the related source processes. This is particularly important in tectonically active areas, where deformation measurement is crucial for monitoring ongoing processes and assessing future hazard. Long Valley Caldera, California, USA, is a volcanic area where frequent episodes of unrest involve inflation and increased seismicity. Ground- and satellite-based instruments show that volcanic inflation renewed in 2011, and is continuing as of early 2021. Additionally, Long Valley Caldera is affected by the large, but spatially and temporally variable, amounts of precipitation falling on the adjacent Sierra Nevada Range.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2020

Palaeotsunamis in the Sino-Pacific region

Palaeotsunami research in the Sino-Pacific region has increased markedly following the 2011 Tōhoku-oki tsunami. Recent studies encompass a variety of potential sources and cover a full range of research activities from detailed studies at individual sites through to region-wide data collation for the purposes of database development. We synthesise palaeotsunami data from around the region drawing on key examples to highlight the progress made since 2011. We focus on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from region-wide to local events, from multi-millennial site records to estimates of magnitude and frequency along national coastlines. The review is based on sub-regions but in reviewing the combined records highlights common events and anomalies. In doing so we identify future research opportunities and notable findings arising from our review.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS1961

The data of lead isotope geology related to problems of Ore Genesis

Searching questions about the origins of ore deposits have been asked for many years. Where do ore fluids originate-within the crust, or deeper? Can specific sources of ore metals be identified? When were ores deposited? How long did mineralization continue? What was the rate and paragenesis of deposition? Which deposits are cogenetic, and what metallogenetic provinces do they define? Isotope analyses of lead from rocks and ores provide a new tool for attacking such problems of ore genesis . About two thousand such analyses now available from more than 20 laboratories have been compiled and studied for this purpose. The data now available suggest partial answers to some questions and serve to define other, new problems , not previously recognized. Their greatest import, however, is to illustrate the potential future significance of lead - isotope studies. Ore - lead , as shown two decades ago, ranges widely in isotopic composition. Recent studies show that traces of lead in ordinary rocks of the earth's crust exhibit apparently similar variations. All these variations are attributable primarily to mixing of old lead with accumulations of new radiogenic lead from decay of radioactive uranium and thorium. Each sample of lead preserves in its isotopic composition a record of its own mixing history: a composite record of the time this lead was in different environments, its past associations with uranium and thorium, and the geochemical processes that moved it from place to place. Integrated study of all these variables will throw light on many difficult problems of ore genesis when adequate techniques are developed. Progress will be slow, however, until more accurate lead - isotope analyses can be made at lower cost and more objective criteria developed for interpreting measured isotopic compositions in terms of geologic history.

Economic Geology↗

USGS2021

The potential of satellite remote sensing time series to uncover wetland phenology under unique challenges of tidal setting

While growth history of vegetation within upland systems is well studied, plant phenology within coastal tidal systems is less understood. Landscape-scale, satellite-derived indicators of plant greenness may not adequately represent seasonality of vegetation biomass and productivity within tidal wetlands due to limitations of cloud cover, satellite temporal frequency and attenu-ation of plant signals by tidal flooding. However, understanding plant phenology is necessary to gain insight into aboveground biomass, photosynthetic activity, and carbon sequestration. In this study we use a modeling approach to estimate plant greenness throughout a year in tidal wet-lands located within the San Francisco Bay Area, USA. We used variables such as EVI history, temperature, and elevation to predict plant greenness on a 14-day timestep. We found this ap-proach accurately estimated plant greenness, with larger error observed within more dynamic restored wetlands, particularly at early post-restoration stages. We also found modeled EVI can be used as an input variable into greenhouse gas models, allowing for an estimate of carbon se-questration and gross primary production. Our strategy can be further developed in future re-search by assessing restoration and management effects on wetland phenological dynamics and through incorporating the entire Sentinel-2 time-series once it becomes available within Google Earth Engine.

California↗

USGS2012

History and progress of the North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project, 2001-2010

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geological Survey of Canada, and the Mexican Geological Survey initiated a low-density (1 site per 1600 km 2 , 13323 sites) geochemical and mineralogical survey of North American soils (North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project). Sampling and analytical protocols were developed at a series of workshops in 20032004 and pilot studies were conducted from 20042007. The ideal sampling protocol at each site includes a sample from 05 cm depth, a composite of the soil A horizon, and a sample from the soil C horizon. The <2-mm fraction of each sample is analyzed for Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, S, Ti, Ag, Ba, Be, Bi, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Ga, In, La, Li, Mn, Mo, Nb, Ni, P, Pb, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sn, Sr, Te, Th, Tl, U, V, W, Y, and Zn by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry following a near-total digestion in a mixture of HCl, HNO 3 , HClO 4 , and HF. Separate methods are used for As, Hg, Se, and total C on this same size fraction. The major mineralogical components are determined by a quantitative X-ray diffraction method. Sampling in the conterminous U.S. was completed in 2010 (c. 4800 sites) with chemical and mineralogical analysis currently underway. In Mexico, approximately 66% of the sampling (871 sites) had been done by the end of 2010 with completion expected in 2012. After completing sampling in the Maritime provinces and portions of other provinces (472 sites, 7.6% of the total), Canada withdrew from the project in 2010. Preliminary results for a swath from the central U.S. to Florida clearly show the effects of soil parent material and climate on the chemical and mineralogical composition of soils. A sample archive will be established and made available for future investigations.

Earth Science Frontiers↗

USGS1981

Objectives, accomplishments, and future plans of IGCP project 143, remote sensing and mineral exploration

The International Geological Correlation Programme (IGCP) is a worldwide cooperative research programme that began in 1974 under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences. Because of the global availability of Earth resources data collected by satellites and the great interest among geologists in taking advantage of these new sources of information, a project was begun in 1976 to improve the rate of technology transfer in the field of remote-sensing exploration for energy and mineral resources. Conducting joint workshops in cooperation with COSPAR has been an important part of this project. It is to be hoped the project will improve our capability to explore, identify, and develop new resources to meet the burgeoning demands of society. ?? 1981.

Advances in Space Research↗

USGS1986

U.S. Geological Survey toxic Waste-Groundwater Contamination Program, fiscal year 1985

In fiscal year 1982, the U S Geological Survey began an interdisciplinary research thrust entitled Toxic Waste-Groundwater Contamination Program The objective of the thrust was to provide earth sciences information necessary to evaluate and mitigate existing groundwater contamination problems resulting from the planned or inadvertant disposal of wastes and from certain land-use practices, and to improve future waste disposal and land-use practices The program supports process-oriented and interdisciplinary field research, and regional groundwater quality studies This article provides an overview of the current (Fiscal Year 1985) activities of the Toxic Waste Program

Environmental Geology and Water Sciences↗

USGS2011

A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

Biogeochemistry↗