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USGS2015

The use of data-mining techniques for developing effective decisionsupport systems: A case study of simulating the effects ofclimate change on coastal salinity intrusion

Natural-resource managers and stakeholders face difficult challenges when managing interactions between natural and societal systems. Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. The availability of freshwater in coastal streams can be threatened by saltwater intrusion. Even though the collective interests and computer skills of the community of managers, scientists and other stakeholders are quite varied, there is an overarching need for equal access by all to the scientific knowledge needed to make the best possible decisions. This paper describes a decision support system, PRISM-2, developed to evaluate salinity intrusion due to potential climate change along the South Carolina coast in southeastern USA. The decision support system is disseminated as a spreadsheet application and integrates the output of global circulation models, watershed models and salinity intrusion models with real-time databases for simulation, graphical user interfaces, and streaming displays of results. The results from PRISM-2 showed that a 31-cm and 62-cm increase in sea level reduced the daily availability of freshwater supply to a coastal municipal intake by 4% and 12% of the time, respectively. Future climate change projections by a global circulation model showed a seasonal change in salinity intrusion events from the summer to the fall for the majority of events.

South Carolina↗

USGS2012

On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and the large swell event from distant Hurricane Bill on 22 August. The coastal impacts associated with Nor'Ida were due to the combined effects of surge, tide, and wave processes and led to an estimated 5.8 million dollars in damage. While the impacts from Hurricane Bill were not as severe as Nor'Ida, they were mainly associated with wave processes. Thus, this event exemplifies the importance of incorporating waves into the total water level and coastal impact prediction process. These examples set the stage for potential future applications including adaption to the more complex topography along the New England coast.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Patterns and controls of mercury accumulation in sediments from three thermokarst lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

The biogeochemical cycle of mercury will be influenced by climate change, particularly at higher latitudes. Investigations of historical mercury accumulation in lake sediments inform future predictions as to how climate change might affect mercury biogeochemistry; however, in regions with a paucity of data, such as the thermokarst-rich Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska (ACP), the trajectory of mercury accumulation in lake sediments is particularly uncertain. Sediment cores from three thermokarst lakes on the ACP were analyzed to understand changes in, and drivers of, Hg accumulation over the past ~ 100 years. Mercury accumulation in two of the three lakes was variable and high over the past century (91.96 and 78.6 µg/m 2 /year), and largely controlled by sedimentation rate. Mercury accumulation in the third lake was lower (14.2 µg/m 2 /year), more temporally uniform, and was more strongly related to sediment Hg concentration than sedimentation rate. Sediment mercury concentrations were quantitatively related to measures of sediment composition and VRS-inferred chlorophyll a , and sedimentation rates were related to various catchment characteristics. These results were compared to data from 37 previously studied Arctic and Alaskan lakes. Results from the meta-analysis indicate that thermokarst lakes have significantly higher and more variable Hg accumulation rates than non-thermokarst lakes, suggesting that certain properties (e.g., thermal erosion, thaw slumping, low hydraulic conductivity) likely make lakes prone to high and variable Hg accumulation rates. Differences and high variability in Hg accumulation among high latitude lakes highlight the complexity of predicting future climate-related change impacts on mercury cycling in these environments.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

A pilot biodiversity inventory and monitoring protocol in support of coastal adaptation projects in tidal and nearshore subtidal habitats of Boston Harbor Islands

The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA) is at high risk to the impacts of sealevel rise (SLR) and erosion from coastal storms. In June 2021, the National Trust for Historic Preservation listed the islands as one of America’s 11 Most Endangered Historic Places due to climate change. BOHA partners have been working to find climate adaptive solutions to protect and sustain critical ecological and cultural resources on the islands. A range of coastal adaptation efforts are currently under consideration including increased shoreline armoring and nature-based adaptation solutions. Any action taken in the coastal zone will require an assessment of environmental and ecological communities that could potentially be impacted by disturbance caused by restoration or adaptation projects. The primary goals of the initial phase of this project were to: 1) synthesize occurrence and distribution records of biodiversity living in and using mixed coarse substrate habitats of the intertidal zone of the Boston Harbor Islands; and 2) identify and compile potential methods to develop a standard and repeatable monitoring protocol to track changes (natural or anthropogenic) in intertidal biodiversity over time and across locations; and 3) conduct preliminary site scoping of target islands to identify locations for collecting new baseline data. A biodiversity inventory list was compiled, showing a total of 451 unique species were observed in BOHA between 1861-2020. Of this list, 55 species (invertebrates: 47; algae: 8) were considered nonindigenous species; a watchlist was also developed to help BOHA partners identify potential future invaders that could colonize and impact intertidal communities due to ongoing climate change or disturbance events. Native species observed in BOHA were evaluated using existing conservation frameworks and climate vulnerability information to prioritize species at greatest risk from anthropogenic and environmental stressors for future actions. Lastly, site scoping activities during 2021 identified three types of sites for future intertidal monitoring initiatives: (1) sites with relatively high biodiversity and foundational species, (2) erosional sites near cultural areas of importance to NPS, and (3) sites with generic (common across islands) biodiversity. Overall results are anticipated to help the NPS and BOHA partners identify a suite of species and sites for future monitoring given anticipated adaptation projects and ongoing changes due to SLR, coastal storms and other stressors.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Final report: A novel monitoring framework to assess intertidal biodiversity in mixed coarse substrate habitats across the Boston Harbor Islands

The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA) is at high risk to the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and erosion from coastal storms. In June 2021, the National Trust for Historic Preservation listed the islands as one of America’s 11 Most Endangered Historic Places due to climate change. BOHA partners have been working to find climate adaptive solutions to protect and sustain critical ecological and cultural resources on the islands. A range of coastal adaptation efforts are currently under consideration including increased shoreline armoring and nature-based adaptation solutions. Any action taken in the coastal zone will require an assessment of environmental and ecological communities that could potentially be impacted by disturbance caused by restoration or adaptation projects. The primary goals of the initial phase of this project were to: 1) synthesize occurrence and distribution records of biodiversity living in and using mixed coarse substrate habitats of the intertidal zone of the Boston Harbor Islands; and 2) identify and compile potential methods to develop a standard and repeatable monitoring protocol to track changes (natural or anthropogenic) in intertidal biodiversity over time and across locations; and 3) conduct preliminary site scoping of target islands to identify locations for collecting new baseline data. A biodiversity inventory list was compiled, showing a total of 451 unique species were observed in BOHA between 1861-2020. Of this list, 55 species (invertebrates: 47; algae: 8) were considered nonindigenous species; a watchlist was also developed to help BOHA partners identify potential future invaders that could colonize and impact intertidal communities due to ongoing climate change or disturbance events. Native species observed in BOHA were evaluated using existing conservation frameworks and climate vulnerability information to prioritize species at greatest risk from anthropogenic and environmental stressors for future actions. Lastly, site scoping activities during 2021 identified three types of sites for future intertidal monitoring initiatives: (1) sites with relatively high biodiversity and foundational species, (2) erosional sites near cultural areas of importance to NPS, and (3) sites with generic (common across islands) biodiversity. Overall results are anticipated to help the NPS and BOHA partners identify a suite of species and sites for future monitoring given anticipated adaptation projects and ongoing changes due to SLR, coastal storms and other stressors.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

Southeast

The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. These beaches and bayous, fields and forests, and cities and small towns are all at risk from a changing climate. While some climate change impacts, such as sea level rise and extreme downpours, are being acutely felt now, others, like increasing exposure to dangerous high temperatures, humidity, and new local diseases, are expected to become more significant in the coming decades. While all regional residents and communities are potentially at risk for some impacts, some communities or populations are at greater risk due to their locations, services available to them, and economic situations. Observed warming since the mid-20th century has been uneven in the Southeast region, with average daily minimum temperatures increasing three times faster than average daily maximum temperatures. The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Climate model simulations of future conditions project increases in both temperature and extreme precipitation. Trends towards a more urbanized and denser Southeast are expected to continue, creating new climate vulnerabilities. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors, and the major urban centers in the Southeast are already impacted by poor air quality during warmer months. Increasing precipitation and extreme weather events will likely impact roads, freight rail, and passenger rail, which will likely have cascading effects across the region. Infrastructure related to drinking water and wastewater treatment also has the potential to be compromised by climate-related events. Increases in extreme rainfall events and high tide coastal floods due to future climate change will impact the quality of life of permanent residents as well as tourists visiting the low-lying and coastal regions of the Southeast. Sea level rise is contributing to increased coastal flooding in the Southeast, and high tide flooding already poses daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the region. There have been numerous instances of intense rainfall events that have had devastating impacts on inland communities in recent years. The ecological resources that people depend on for livelihoods, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate change. Sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of coastal, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems to tidal saline habitats. Reductions in the frequency and intensity of cold winter temperature extremes are already allowing tropical and subtropical species to move northward and replace more temperate species. Warmer winter temperatures are also expected to facilitate the northward movement of problematic invasive species, which could transform natural systems north of their current distribution. In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire practices. Many in rural communities are maintaining connections to traditional livelihoods and relying on natural resources that are inherently vulnerable to climate changes. Climate trends and possible climate futures show patterns that are already impacting—and are projected to further impact—rural sectors, from agriculture and forestry to human health and labor productivity. Future temperature increases are projected to pose challenges to human health. Increases in temperatures, water stress , freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems. Rural communities tend to be more vulnerable to these changes due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence. In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5) suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from future climate changes in the United States. Climate change tends to compound existing vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing inequities. Already poor regions, including those found in the Southeast, are expected to continue incurring greater losses than elsewhere in the United States.

Report↗

USGS2004

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS) to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1020/html/cvi.htm) was used to map relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS) in Maryland and Virginia. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. Rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Assateague Island consists of stable and washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Assateague that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2022

Long-term assessments are critical to determining persistence and shoreline protection from oyster reef nature-based coastal defenses

Nature-based coastal defense using bivalve reefs provides a potentially self-sustaining approach for regions facing high coastal land loss, relative sea level rise and increasing frequency and intensity of storms. Success of such nature-based coastal defense depends on the reef-building species' life history, habitat requirements, and ability to thrive through short-term and longer-term environmental variation, yet few projects have reported on outcomes beyond the first few years. In coastal Louisiana, USA, Crassostrea virginica (oyster) is an ecosystem engineer, creating self-sustaining, vertically accreting reefs that also provide ecosystem services. Here, we examine the short (< 3 years) and medium (> 10 years) term outcomes of experimental reefs constructed in 2009 for nature-based coastal defense in a Louisiana, USA estuarine lake. Oyster reef density, demography, along with adjacent salt marsh, and shoreline movement were compared at six fringing shoreline reefs and paired reference sites over the first three years post-construction (2009–2011), and a decade later (2019–2020). Oyster density measured in 2019–2020 (< 60 ind m −2 ) was less than 10% of density measured during 2009–2011 (> 1000 ind m −2 ). This density difference largely reflected a lack of new recruits and small oysters (< 75 mm shell height) in later samples, with adult oyster densities similar between 2011, 2019 and 2020. Lack of smaller oysters in recent sampling likely reflected the impact of multiple extended low salinity events in this region in recent years, including the record-breaking low salinity in 2019. No differences in shoreline characteristics were detected in marsh vegetation, soil properties or nutrient concentrations between reef and reference sites during early and later years. Similarly, shoreline erosion at both reef and reference sites immediately post-construction, and 10 years later, was high (~1 m y −1 ) indicating a lack of shoreline protection from these reefs. These findings highlight the need to consider both current and future conditions, including the effect of extreme years, when implementing nature-based coastal defense. On the other hand, the persistence of reproductive-sized oysters on the reef 10 years post creation, indicate reef resilience and potential for reef development and shoreline benefits, should better site conditions return in future years. Determining restoration success within variable and dynamic environments requires frequent monitoring which is required to understand responses to short and longer-term environmental variation.

Louisiana↗

USGS2018

A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles.

California↗

USGS1999

USGS ground-water flow model : an essential tool for managing the water supply of the Virginia Coastal Plain

Virginia needs a reliable water supply to sustain its growing population and expanding economy. In 1990, the aquifers in the Coastal Plain supplied about 100 million gallons per day (mgd) to the citizens, businesses, and industries of Virginia. It is estimated that by the year 2000, demand will increase by another 10 mgd and likely will continue to increase in future years. Ground water is the only source of usable water in rural areas of the Coastal Plain and increasingly is being used to support a growing urban population. Current withdrawals have led to declining water levels in most Coastal Plain aquifers. Further declines are likely to occur, posing a threat that saltwater will move into parts of these freshwater aquifers.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2016

Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus . Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts should consider the use of non-traditional fishery-dependent data sources, such as land-based records, as data streams in stock assessments.

Texas↗

USGS2017

A synthesis of thresholds for focal species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: A review of research and applications

The impacts from climate change are increasing the possibility of vulnerable coastal species and habitats crossing critical thresholds that could spur rapid and possibly irreversible changes. For species of high conservation concern, improved knowledge of quantitative thresholds could greatly improve management. To meet this need, we synthesized information pertaining to biological responses as tipping points to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal storms for 45 fish, wildlife, and plant species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and Caribbean through a literature review and expert elicitation. Although these species were selected based on their ecological, economic, and cultural importance, just over half (56%, n = 25) have quantitative threshold data currently available that can be used to assess the effects of SLR and storms during some aspect of their life history. Birds, reptiles, and plants represent the best studied coastal species. Thirteen of the species (29%) are projected to lose at least 50% of their population or habitat (e.g., foraging, nesting, spawning, or resting habitat) in some areas with a 0.5 m or greater rise in sea levels by 2100. Two species (a bird and reptile) may gain habitat from projected SLR and be resilient to future impacts. Numeric thresholds were not available for the remaining 20 species we searched for. Coastal fishes, mammals, and amphibians were among the groups representing a major information gap in this field of research. In addition, quantitative threshold responses to coastal storms were scarce for all taxa. While vulnerability assessments and qualitative research related to the impacts of SLR and storms on coastal species and habitats are increasing, work that incorporates quantitative thresholds as response and impact metrics remains limited. Additional monitoring, modeling, and research that provides multiple quantitative thresholds across species' life stages and/or latitudinal gradients is ideal to support robust coastal management and decision-making across spatio-temporal scales in the face of climate change.

Ocean and Coastal Management↗

USGS1996

Meeting summary - Coastal meteorology and oceanography: Report of the third prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and NSF

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) prospectus development teams (PDTs) are small groups of scientists that are convened by the USWRP lead scientist on a one-time basis to discuss critical issues and to provide advice related to future directions of the program. PDTs are a principal source of information for the Science Advisory Committee, which is a standing committee charged with the duty of making recommendations to the Program Office based upon overall program objectives. PDT-1 focused on theoretical issues, and PDT-2 on observational issues; PDT-3 is the first of several to focus on more specialized topics. PDT-3 was convened to identify forecasting problems related to U.S. coastal weather and oceanic conditions, and to suggest likely solution strategies. There were several overriding themes that emerged from the discussion. First, the lack of data in and over critical regions of the ocean, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer, and the upper-ocean mixed layer were identified as major impediments to coastal weather prediction. Strategies for data collection and dissemination, as well as new instrument implementation, were discussed. Second, fundamental knowledge of air-sea fluxes and boundary layer structure in situations where there is significant mesoscale variability in the atmosphere and ocean is needed. Companion field studies and numerical prediction experiments were discussed. Third, research prognostic models suggest that future operational forecast models pertaining to coastal weather will be high resolution and site specific, and will properly treat effects of local coastal geography, orography, and ocean state. The view was expressed that the exploration of coupled air-sea models of the coastal zone would be a particularly fruitful area of research. PDT-3 felt that forecasts of land-impacting tropical cyclones, Great Lakes-affected weather, and coastal cyclogenesis, in particular, would benefit from such coordinated modeling and field efforts. Fourth, forecasting for Arctic coastal zones is limited by our understanding of how sea ice forms. The importance of understanding air-sea fluxes and boundary layers in the presence of ice formation was discussed. Finally, coastal flash flood forecasting via hydrologic models is limited by the present accuracy of measured and predicted precipitation and storm surge events. Strategies for better ways to improve the latter were discussed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

A review of machine learning applications to coastal sediment transport and morphodynamics

A range of computer science methods under the heading of machine learning (ML) enables the extraction of insight and quantitative relationships from multidimensional datasets. Here, we review some common ML methods and their application to studies of coastal morphodynamics and sediment transport. We examine aspects of ‘what’ and ‘why’ ML methods contribute, such as ‘what’ science problems ML tools have been used to address, ‘what’ was learned when using ML, and ‘why’ authors used ML methods. We find a variety of research questions have been addressed, ranging from small-scale predictions of sediment transport to larger-scale sand bar morphodynamics and coastal overwash on a developed island. We find various reasons justify the use of ML, including maximize predictability, emulation of model components, smooth and continuous nonlinear regression through data, and explicit inclusion of uncertainty. Overall the expanding use of ML has allowed for an expanding set of questions to be addressed. After reviewing the studies we outline a set of ‘best practices’ for coastal researchers using machine learning methods. Finally we suggest possible areas for future research, including the use of novel machine learning techniques and exploring ‘open data’ that is becoming increasingly available.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2012

Reducing Vulnerability of Ports and Harbors to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

Recent scientific research suggests the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes in the near future, both from distant and local sources, posing a significant threat to coastal communities. Damage could result from numerous earthquake-related hazards, such as severe ground shaking, soil liquefaction, landslides, land subsidence/uplift, and tsunami inundation. Because of their geographic location, ports and harbors are especially vulnerable to these hazards. Ports and harbors, however, are important components of many coastal communities, supporting numerous activities critical to the local and regional economy and possibly serving as vital post-event, response-recovery transportation links. A collaborative, multi-year initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to earthquake and tsunami hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant (OSG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center (CSC), and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy (CSP). Specific products of this research, planning, and outreach initiative include a regional stakeholder issues and needs assessment, a community-based mitigation planning process, a Geographic Information System (GIS) — based vulnerability assessment methodology, an educational web-site and a regional data archive. This paper summarizes these efforts, including results of two pilot port-harbor community projects, one in Yaquina Bay, Oregon and the other in Sinclair Inlet, Washington. Finally, plans are outlined for outreach to other port and harbor communities in the Pacific Northwest and beyond, using "getting started" workshops and a web-based tutorial.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2022

Compilation of existing data for sand resource studies in Federal and California State Waters of the San Francisco, Oceanside, and Silver Strand littoral cell study areas along the continental shelf of California—Strategy for field studies and sand resource assessment

Executive Summary The Sand Resources Project was established through collaborative agreements between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), and the California Ocean Protection Council (OPC) with the purpose of evaluating sand and gravel resources in Federal and California State Waters for potential use in future beach-nourishment projects. Project partners worked in collaboration with California Coastal Sediment Management Workgroup (CSMW) members to define priority study areas for this work based on the potential for finding sand within the broader region and the needs for this sand as shown by beach erosion areas of concern in the adjacent littoral cells. The final study areas were defined to be (1) the San Francisco Littoral Cell, (2) the Oceanside Littoral Cell, and (3) the Silver Strand Littoral Cell. A two-stage approach was used to assess the study areas. This report addresses the initial stage, which is a synthesis of the existing geophysical and sediment-sampling data in each area. This allowed for evaluations of the data availability, data gaps, and general patterns of sediment thickness and grain size. This report provides a description of the methods and results of this synthesis. The findings from this work were used to refine study area boundaries and develop sampling plans for stage two of the project. Stage two of the project, the results of which will be published separately, will be the collection, processing, and synthesis of new data, including high-resolution geophysical surveys and sediment cores within the three study areas. The data collected will provide new information about the three study areas including sediment thickness, grain-size distributions, and total organic carbon. The description and results of stage two of the work is included in another USGS report (Warrick and others, 2022).

California↗

USGS2022

Database of topo-bathy cross-shore profiles and characteristics for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sandy coastlines

A database of seamless topographic and bathymetric cross-shore profiles along with metrics of the associated morphological characteristics based on the latest available lidar data ranging from 2011–2020 and bathymetry from the Continuously Updated Digital Elevation Model was developed for U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico open-ocean sandy coastlines. Cross-shore resolution ranges from 2.5 m for topographic and nearshore portions to 10 m for offshore portions. Topographic morphological characteristics include: foredune crest elevation, foredune toe elevation, foredune width, foredune volume, foredune relative height, beach width, beach volume, beach slope, and nearshore slope. This database was developed to serve as inputs for current and future morphological modeling studies aimed at providing real-time estimates of coastal change magnitudes resulting from imminent tropical storm and hurricane landfall. Beyond this need for model inputs, the database of cross-shore profiles and characteristic metrics could serve as a tool for coastal scientists to visualize and to analyze varying local, regional, and national variations in coastal morphology for varying types of studies and projects related to Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sandy coastline environments.

Data↗