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USGS2018

U.S. Caribbean

Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase. The high percentage of coastal area relative to the total island land area in the U.S. Caribbean means that a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. High levels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in the U.S. Caribbean region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region’s gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas. The limited geographic and economic scale of Caribbean islands means that disruptions from extreme climate-related events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastate large portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services. The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) have distinct differences in topography, language, population size, governance, natural and human resources, and economic capacity. However, both are highly dependent on natural and built coastal assets; service-related industries account for more than 60% of the USVI economy. Beaches, affected by sea level rise and erosion, are among the main tourist attractions. In Puerto Rico, critical infrastructure (for example, drinking water pipelines and pump stations, sanitary pipelines and pump stations, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants) is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, storm surge , and flooding. In the USVI, infrastructure and historical buildings in the inundation zone for sea level rise include the power plants on both St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie, Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines for water and sewage. Climate change will likely result in water shortages due to an overall decrease in annual rainfall, a reduction in ecosystem services, and increased risks for agriculture, human health, wildlife, and socioeconomic development in the U.S. Caribbean. These shortages would result from some locations within the Caribbean experiencing longer dry seasons and shorter, but wetter, wet seasons in the future. Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood. Excessive rainfall, coupled with poor construction practices, unpaved roads, and steep slopes, can exacerbate erosion rates and have adverse effects on reservoir capacity, water quality, and nearshore marine habitats. Ocean warming poses a significant threat to the survival of corals and will likely also cause shifts in associated habitats that compose the coral reef ecosystem . Severe, repeated, or prolonged periods of high temperatures leading to extended coral bleaching can result in colony death. Ocean acidification also is likely to diminish the structural integrity of coral habitats. Studies show that major shifts in fisheries distribution and changes to the structure and composition of marine habitats adversely affect food security, shoreline protection, and economies throughout the Caribbean. In Puerto Rico, the annual number of days with temperatures above 90°F has increased over the last four and a half decades. During that period, stroke and cardiovascular disease, which are influenced by such elevated temperatures, became the primary causes of death. Increases in average temperature and in extreme heat events will likely have detrimental effects on agricultural operations throughout the U.S. Caribbean region. Many farmers in the tropics, including the U.S. Caribbean, are considered small-holding, limited resource farmers and often lack the resources and/or capital to adapt to changing conditions. Most Caribbean countries and territories share the need to assess risks, enable actions across scales, and assess changes in ecosystems to inform decision-making on habitat protection under a changing climate. U.S. Caribbean islands have the potential to improve adaptation and mitigation actions by fostering stronger collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on climate change and disaster risk reduction.

Report↗

USGS1996

Small watershed studies: Analytical approaches for understanding ecosystem response to environmental change

Biogeochemical studies in small watersheds provide an analytical approach to understand how ecosystems respond to natural climatic variations and human-induced environmental change. Small watersheds, usually less than 5 km2, are small enough to permit characterization and understanding of ecosystem processes within relatively simple, homogeneous biological and physical settings; yet they are large enough to incorporate more complex processes and element cycles than can be studied at plot scales. Watersheds comprise discrete hydrochemical environments allowing quantification of hydrologic, element, and energy budgets. Element budgets, or mass balances, can be quantified as the difference between the mass of a solute that enters a watershed in wet and dry deposition and leaves a watershed in streamflow. Element budgets are primary tools used to investigate biogeochemical processes. Monitoring various aspects of element budgets to assess ecosystem health and stability is analogous to measuring the pulse or blood chemistry of a patient. Monitoring streamwater chemistry, basic climate, soil, and biotic variables provide a means to integrate complex biogeochemical processes and evaluate trends in water quality. Small watershed studies provide a scientific basis to develop predictive models of watershed function. Major emphases of small watershed studies include investigation of hydrologic and chemical responses to natural climate variation, anthropogenic stressors, and alternate forest-management practices. The nature and significance of biogeochemical research in small watersheds is reviewed by Moldan and Cerny (1994). The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, and other federal agencies support several long-term small watershed studies to provide insight into a variety of ecosystem processes. Long-term records are essential to distinguish trends resulting from natural climatic variations or other stressors. The following sites, with noted periods of records, are examples of intensively studied forested watersheds in eastern USA supported by federal agencies: ■ Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, (1939-present), Swank and Crossley (1988). ■ Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, (1956-present), Bormann and Likens (1979). ■ Sleepers River Research Watershed, Vermont, (1958-present), Shanley et al. (1995). ■ Walker Branch Watershed, Tennessee, (1967-present), Johnson and Van Hook (1989). ■ Catoctin Mountains Research Site, Maryland, (1982-present), Rice and Bricker (1995). ■ Catskill Stream Network, New York, (1983- present), Murdoch and Stoddard (1992). ■ Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, (1985-present), Huntington et al. (1993). Small watershed studies also provide essential baseline information for understanding variations in water quality and element cycling in "pristine" ecosystems that can be used as benchmarks to evaluate anthropogenic impacts and alternate watershed management practices. This paper provides examples of how analytical tools developed through watershed research provide insight into ecosystem processes and can contribute to the management of watershed resources.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2014

Ecological role and services of tropical mangrove ecosystems: a reassessment

Aim To reassess the capacity of mangroves for ecosystem services in the light of recent data. Location Global mangrove ecosystems. Methods We review four long-standing roles of mangroves: (1) carbon dynamics – export or sink; (2) nursery role; (3) shoreline protection; (4) land-building capacity. The origins of pertinent hypotheses, current understanding and gaps in our knowledge are highlighted with reference to biogeographic, geographic and socio-economic influences. Results The role of mangroves as C sinks needs to be evaluated for a wide range of biogeographic regions and forest conditions. Mangrove C assimilation may be under-estimated because of flawed methodology and scanty data on key components of C dynamics. Peri-urban mangroves may be manipulated to provide local offsets for C emission. The nursery function of mangroves is not ubiquitous but varies with spatio-temporal accessibility. Connectivity and complementarity of mangroves and adjacent habitats enhance their nursery function through trophic relay and ontogenetic migrations. The effectiveness of mangroves for coastal protection depends on factors at landscape/geomorphic to community scales and local/species scales. Shifts in species due to climate change, forest degradation and loss of habitat connectivity may reduce the protective capacity of mangroves. Early views of mangroves as land builders (especially lateral expansion) were questionable. Evidence now indicates that mangroves, once established, directly influence vertical land development by enhancing sedimentation and/or by direct organic contributions to soil volume (peat formation) in some settings. Main conclusions Knowledge of thresholds, spatio-temporal scaling and variability due to geographic, biogeographic and socio-economic settings will improve the management of mangrove ecosystem services. Many drivers respond to global trends in climate change and local changes such as urbanization. While mangroves have traditionally been managed for subsistence, future governance models must involve partnerships between local custodians of mangroves and offsite beneficiaries of the services.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS2022

Landscape-scale forest restoration decreases vulnerability to drought mortality under climate change in southwest USA ponderosa forest

Drought-induced tree mortality is predicted to increase in dry forests across the western USA as future projections show hotter, drier climates potentially resulting in large-scale tree die-offs, changes in species composition, and loss of forest ecosystem services, including carbon storage. While some studies have found that forest stands with greater basal areas (BA) have higher drought mortality, many have not evaluated the extent to which forest structure, either overly dense forests due to fire suppression or forests restored to lower densities, interacts with drought mortality. The southwestern USA is particularly susceptible to tree mortality due to the predicted increases in temperature, drier soils, and forests with high density. Our objective was to evaluate how ponderosa pine mortality is expected to be influenced by the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, a large-scale forest restoration effort ongoing in northern Arizona, USA, that will reduce stand BA by approximately 40%. Specifically, we modeled drought mortality in three time periods, one contemporary (1970-2010), and two future (2020-2059 and 2060-2099) under three restoration scenarios: no thinning, 4FRI thinning, and a BA reduction beyond the 4FRI plan (4FRI-intensive). We estimated mortality using 11 climate models under two emissions scenarios. Without thinning, our model predicted that by mid-century (2020-2059), changes in climate could increase annual ponderosa pine mortality rates by 45-57% over contemporary rates. However, with thinning, mid-century mortality was predicted to remain near or below contemporary rates and these rates are 31-35% (4FRI) and 46-51% (4FRI-intensive) less than the mid-century scenarios without thinning. Our study shows that while climate change is likely to increase tree mortality rates, large-scale forest restoration projects, such as 4FRI, have the potential to ameliorate the effects of climate change and keep mortality rates near contemporary levels for decades.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

The influence of tree canopy cover data choices on urban ecosystem accounting

Because urban landscapes are heterogeneous, the methods and spatial resolution used to depict the land surface greatly influence the representation of urban features. Land cover products such as tree canopy cover (TCC) are particularly sensitive to the methodology and resolution used in their creation. Differences in TCC mapping have implications on the outcomes of ecosystem service (ES) models, including those underlying natural capital accounting. Here, we quantify the sensitivity of physical rainfall interception and local climate regulation ES models for 189 U.S. cities to TCC inputs from four TCC products: a) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), b) Enhanced NLCD TCC, c) aggregated city-specific composite, and d) global tree canopy height dataset. We find both city-level and aggregate differences in TCC estimates, from a 38% decrease to a 3% increase relative to an aggregated high-resolution product. These differences result in up to 3% overestimations and 27% underestimation of rainfall interception and 2–56% underestimation of local climate regulation ES. City size, population, and greenness in addition to climatic variation drove differences between TCC products, and this variation requires users to carefully consider the choice of input data for any planned analysis. Though high-resolution data can offer greater nuance and accuracy, more limited spatiotemporal availability can hinder their usefulness for long-term monitoring applications such as natural capital accounting. The differences found in this study provide valuable insights for making informed decisions on data inputs for use in urban ecosystem research and for contextualizing model outcomes.

Contiguous United States↗

USGS2015

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2015

Transforming ecosystems: When, where, and how to restore contaminated sites

Chemical contamination has impaired ecosystems, reducing biodiversity and the provisioning of functions and services. This has spurred a movement to restore contaminated ecosystems and develop and implement national and international regulations that require it. Nevertheless, ecological restoration remains a young and rapidly growing discipline and its intersection with toxicology is even more nascent and underdeveloped. Consequently, we provide guidance to scientists and practitioners on when, where, and how to restore contaminated ecosystems. Although restoration has many benefits, it also can be expensive, and in many cases systems can recover without human intervention. Hence, the first question we address is: “When should we restore contaminated ecosystems?” Second, we provide suggestions on what to restore—biodiversity, functions, services, all 3, or something else—and where to restore given expected changes to habitats driven by global climate change. Finally, we provide guidance on how to restore contaminated ecosystems. To do this, we analyze critical aspects of the literature dealing with the ecology of restoring contaminated ecosystems. Additionally, we review approaches for translating the science of restoration to on-the-ground actions, which includes discussions of market incentives and the finances of restoration, stakeholder outreach and governance models for ecosystem restoration, and working with contractors to implement restoration plans. By explicitly considering the mechanisms and strategies that maximize the success of the restoration of contaminated sites, we hope that our synthesis serves to increase and improve collaborations between restoration ecologists and ecotoxicologists and set a roadmap for the restoration of contaminated ecosystems.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2024

Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID): Community insights for scoping a NASA terrestrial ecology field campaign in drylands

Dryland ecosystems cover 40% of our planet's land surface, support billions of people, and are responding rapidly to climate and land use change. These expansive systems also dominate core aspects of Earth's climate, storing and exchanging vast amounts of water, carbon, and energy with the atmosphere. Despite their indispensable ecosystem services and high vulnerability to change, drylands are one of the least understood ecosystem types, partly due to challenges studying their heterogeneous landscapes and misconceptions that drylands are unproductive “wastelands.” Consequently, inadequate understanding of dryland processes has resulted in poor model representation and forecasting capacity, hindering decision making for these at-risk ecosystems. NASA satellite resources are increasingly available at the higher resolutions needed to enhance understanding of drylands' heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. NASA's Terrestrial Ecology Program solicited proposals for scoping a multi-year field campaign, of which Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) was one of two scoping studies selected. A primary goal of the scoping study is to gather input from the scientific and data end-user communities on dryland research gaps and data user needs. Here, we provide an overview of the ARID team's community engagement and how it has guided development of our framework. This includes an ARID kickoff meeting with over 300 participants held in October 2023 at the University of Arizona to gather input from data end-users and scientists. We also summarize insights gained from hundreds of follow-up activities, including from a tribal-engagement focused workshop in New Mexico, conference town halls, intensive roundtables, and international engagements.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2024

Hotspots of biogeochemical activity linked to aridity and plant traits across global drylands

Perennial plants create productive and biodiverse hotspots, known as fertile islands, beneath their canopies. These hotspots largely determine the structure and functioning of drylands worldwide. Despite their ubiquity, the factors controlling fertile islands under conditions of contrasting grazing by livestock, the most prevalent land use in drylands, remain virtually unknown. Here we evaluated the relative importance of grazing pressure and herbivore type, climate and plant functional traits on 24 soil physical and chemical attributes that represent proxies of key ecosystem services related to decomposition, soil fertility, and soil and water conservation. To do this, we conducted a standardized global survey of 288 plots at 88 sites in 25 countries worldwide. We show that aridity and plant traits are the major factors associated with the magnitude of plant effects on fertile islands in grazed drylands worldwide. Grazing pressure had little influence on the capacity of plants to support fertile islands. Taller and wider shrubs and grasses supported stronger island effects. Stable and functional soils tended to be linked to species-rich sites with taller plants. Together, our findings dispel the notion that grazing pressure or herbivore type are linked to the formation or intensification of fertile islands in drylands. Rather, our study suggests that changes in aridity, and processes that alter island identity and therefore plant traits, will have marked effects on how perennial plants support and maintain the functioning of drylands in a more arid and grazed world.

Nature Plants↗

USGS2002

Meeting ecological and societal needs for freshwater

Human society has used freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so has overlooked its value in supporting ecosystems. Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being, and thus its utilization for consumption, irrigation, and transport has long taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater ecosystems. However, there is growing recognition that functionally intact and biologically complex aquatic ecosystems provide many economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. The short-term benefits include ecosystem goods and services, such as food supply, flood control, purification of human and industrial wastes, and habitat for plant and animal life—and these are costly, if not impossible, to replace. Long-term benefits include the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as the adaptive capacity of aquatic ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as climate change. Thus, maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocation. The purpose of this report is to explain how the integrity of freshwater ecosystems depends upon adequate quantity, quality, timing, and temporal variability of water flow. Defining these requirements in a comprehensive but general manner provides a better foundation for their inclusion in current and future debates about allocation of water resources. In this way the needs of freshwater ecosystems can be legitimately recognized and addressed. We also recommend ways in which freshwater ecosystems can be protected, maintained, and restored. Freshwater ecosystem structure and function are tightly linked to the watershed or catchment of which they are a part. Because riverine networks, lakes, wetlands, and their connecting groundwaters, are literally the “sinks” into which landscapes drain, they are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes, including many human uses or modifications of land and water. Freshwater ecosystems, whether lakes, wetlands, or rivers, have specific requirements in terms of quantity, quality, and seasonality of their water supplies. Sustainability normally requires these systems to fluctuate within a natural range of variation. Flow regime, sediment and organic matter inputs, thermal and light characteristics, chemical and nutrient characteristics, and biotic assemblages are fundamental defining attributes of freshwater ecosystems. These attributes impart relatively unique characteristics of productivity and biodiversity to each ecosystem. The natural range of variation in each of these attributes is critical to maintaining the integrity and dynamic potential of aquatic ecosystems; therefore, management should allow for dynamic change. Piecemeal approaches cannot solve the problems confronting freshwater ecosystems. Scientific definitions of the requirements to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystems are necessary but insufficient for establishing the appropriate distribution between societal and ecosystem water needs. For scientific knowledge to be implemented science must be connected to a political agenda for sustainable development. We offer these recommendations as a beginning to redress how water is viewed and managed in the United States: (1) Frame national and regional water management policies to explicitly incorporate freshwater ecosystem needs, particularly those related to naturally variable flow regimes and to the linking of water quality with water quantity; (2) Define water resources to include watersheds, so that freshwaters are viewed within a landscape, or systems context; (3) Increase communication and education across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of freshwater resources; (4) Increase restoration efforts, using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines; (5) Maintain and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems that have high integrity; and (6) Recognize the dependence of human society on naturally functioning ecosystems.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2025

Beyond the mangroves: A global synthesis of tidal forested wetland types, drivers and future information opportunities

There is increasing awareness of the global diversity of tidal forested wetlands (TFWs) and their significance in the provision of ecosystem services. These ecosystems, including mangrove forests, tidal freshwater forested wetlands, supratidal forests and transitional forests together span multiple climatic zones, geomorphic settings, and inundation and salinity regimes. We utilise case studies across five continents to demonstrate the state of knowledge among TFWs. Intertidal mangroves are the best-defined of the TFWs thanks to decades of research on their geomorphology, hydrology and ecology across their broad distribution. Non-mangrove forest settings, however, demonstrate more diverse hydrological, biochemical and vegetation conditions. In many cases, non-mangrove forests are situated at upper intertidal or supratidal elevations, where surface waters and groundwater are subject to interactions between tides freshwater inputs. Salinity datasets show variations ranging from tidal freshwater forested wetlands and ‘low-salinity mangroves’ to mesohaline or marine salinities, often with high temporal variability. While the floristic composition of non-mangrove forests vary among biogeographic regions, locally dominant TFW species are commonly distributed beyond the tidal niche into non-tidal wetland and upland forests. This presents challenges for traditional remote sensing approaches to ecosystem mapping, which are mostly lacking for non-mangrove forests. Geomorphic approaches and developments in machine learning offer opportunities to address this.

Preprint↗

USGS2011

Derived crop management data for the LandCarbon Project

The LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon pools and greenhouse gas fluxes under various scenarios and land management regimes to provide information to support the formulation of policies governing climate change mitigation, adaptation and land management strategies. The project is unique in that spatially explicit maps of annual land cover and land-use change are created at the 250-meter pixel resolution. The project uses vast amounts of data as input to the models, including satellite, climate, land cover, soil, and land management data. Management data have been obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) that provides information regarding crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2011a, b, c). The LandCarbon team queried the USDA databases to pull historic crop-related management data relative to the needs of the project. The data obtained was in table form with the County or State Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) and the year as the primary and secondary keys. Future projections were generated for the A1B, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios using the historic data values along with coefficients generated by the project. The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) modeling framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment, 2006) was used to develop coefficients for each IPCC SRES scenario, which were applied to the historic management data to produce future land management practice projections. The LandCarbon project developed algorithms for deriving gridded data, using these tabular management data products as input. The derived gridded crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop products are used as input to the LandCarbon models to represent the historic and the future scenario management data. The overall algorithm to generate each of the gridded management products is based on the land cover and the derived crop type. For each year in the land cover dataset, the algorithm loops through each 250-meter pixel in the ecoregion. If the current pixel in the land cover dataset is an agriculture pixel, then the crop type is determined. Once the crop type is derived, then the crop harvest, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop values are derived independently for that crop type. The following is the overall algorithm used for the set of derived grids. The specific algorithm to generate each management dataset is discussed in the respective section for that dataset, along with special data handling and a description of the output product.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.

California↗

USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Environmental drivers in mangrove establishment and early development: A review

Mangroves have a global distribution within coastal tropical and subtropical climates, and have even expanded to some temperate locales. Where they do occur, mangroves provide a plethora of goods and services, ranging from coastal protection from storms and erosion to direct income for human societies. The mangrove literature has become rather voluminous, prompting many subdisciplines within a field that earlier in the 20th century received little focus. Much of this research has become diffuse by sheer numbers, requiring detailed syntheses to make research results widely available to resource managers. In this review, we take an inclusive approach in focusing on eco-physiological and growth constraints to the establishment and early development of mangrove seedlings in the intertidal zone. This is a critical life stage for mangroves, i.e., the period between dispersal and recruitment to the sapling stage. We begin with some of the research that has set the precedent for seedling-level eco-physiological research in mangroves, and then we focus on recent advances (circa. 1995 to present) in our understanding of temperature, carbon dioxide, salinity, light, nutrient, flooding, and specific biotic influences on seedling survival and growth. As such, we take a new approach in describing seedling response to global factors (e.g., temperature) along with site-specific factors (e.g., salinity). All variables will strongly influence the future of seedling dynamics in ways perhaps not yet documented in mature forests. Furthermore, understanding how different mangrove species can respond to global factors and regional influences is useful for diagnosing observed mortality within mangrove wetlands, managed or natural. This review provides an updated eco-physiological knowledge base for future research and reforestation activity, and for understanding important links among climate change, local physico-chemical condition, and establishment and early growth of mangrove seedlings.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS2024

Life on land needs fresh water (SDG 15)

Terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests, and the inland waters within them, such as bogs, floodplains, lakes, rivers, springs, and wetlands, are foundational for life on earth. They provide critical ecosystem services such as carbon storage and sequestration, clean water, primary production, pollination, soil fertility, and erosion control. The human footprint on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems continues to expand, imposing pressures from deforestation, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation of species, and land conversion for agricultural production. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 (Life on Land) aims to address these changes by promoting the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems globally. Freshwater ecosystem services and freshwater biological diversity are inherently part of, and critical to, achieving SDG 15; yet they remain absent from the goal and largely hidden within the targets and indicators. Here, we aim to highlight the role and importance of freshwater ecosystems in achieving SDG 15. We identify the six major themes of SDG 15 in which freshwater ecosystems have a preeminent role: (1) increasing protected areas, (2) sustainably managing forests, (3) reducing land degradation, (4) protecting threatened and trafficked species, (5) reducing invasive species, and (6) mobilizing resources. For each theme, we detail (a) freshwater connections to the topic, (b) key opportunities in addressing freshwater components, and (c) a relevant case study highlighting cobenefits for terrestrial ecosystems from actions targeting freshwater ecosystems. We conclude with opportunities for integrative terrestrial–aquatic monitoring, management, and policy actions. Ultimately, achieving the targets of SDG 15 requires recognition of terrestrial–aquatic interdependencies and prioritization of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum↗