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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

USGS2023

A novel suspended-sediment sampling method: Depth-Integrated Grab (DIG)

Measuring suspended sediment in fluvial systems is critical to understanding and managing water resources. Sampling suspended sediment has been the primary means of understanding fluvial suspended sediment. Specialized samplers, sampling methods, and laboratory methods developed by select U.S. Federal Agencies are more representative of river and stream conditions than commonly used grab sampling and total suspended solids (TSS) laboratory methods but are not widely used because they are expensive, time consuming, and not required as part of water quality standards in the United States. A new suspended-sediment sampling method called a depth-integrated grab (DIG) was developed by combining certain elements from both grab and depth-integrating sampling methods and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) laboratory methods. The goal of the DIG method was to provide more accurate results than Grab-TSS while being easier and cheaper to sample than specialized samplers and methods. Approximately 50 paired comparison samples were collected at 9 sites in Minnesota from 2018 through 2019. Results showed no significant difference between the DIG and specialized sampling methods and a significant difference between both methods and the Grab-TSS method. The DIG-SSC provided an improved alternative to the Grab-TSS method, but additional research and testing is important to evaluate if this method is appropriate in different conditions than were observed in this study.

Minnesota↗

USGS1999

Seasonal and annual load of herbicides from the Mississippi River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Water samples collected from rivers in the Mississippi River Basin were analyzed for selected herbicides to evaluate their discharge to the Gulf of Mexico and to identify their predominant source areas within the basin. Samples were collected from the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA from 1991 to 1997 and from sites on the upper Mississippi, the Missouri, and the Ohio Rivers from 1996 to 1997. Atrazine, metolachlor, and alachlor ESA (an alachlor metabolite) were the most frequently detected herbicides in the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, and, in general, were present in the largest concentrations. The peak annual herbicide load was in 1993 when about 640 metric tons of atrazine, 320 metric tons of cyanazine, 215 metric tons of metolachlor, 53 metric tons of simazine, and 50 metric tons of alachlor were discharged to the Gulf of Mexico. The annual load of atrazine and cyanazine was generally 1−3% of the amount annually applied in the Mississippi River drainage basin; the annual load of acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor was generally less than 1%. During 1996−1997 the Ohio River contributed about 50% of the discharge and 50% or more of the herbicide load to the Gulf of Mexico.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2026

Spatio-temporal modeling for assessing geoenergy resources: A workflow applied to gas in place variation in coal beds

The ability to estimate spatio-temporal changes in hydrocarbon reservoir properties and energy resources within pore volumes is essential for optimizing production, reservoir management, geologic energy storage, and safety in underground mining operations. In coal seams, predicting remaining methane gas-in-place (GIP) is critical for quantifying producible gas and improving mine safety and productivity through effective ventilation planning. Although such changes are commonly evaluated using physics-based numerical simulation models, these approaches often require extensive data, calibration effort, and time. This study presents a spatio-temporal geostatistical modeling approach that bridges the gap between purely spatial models and full numerical simulations. The method is applied to a case study of coal seam degasification in the Mary Lee coal group, Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, USA, to estimate GIP evolution over time within a selected mining district. The analysis uses published data from prior natural gas production history-matching of degasification using vertical wells. Empirical spatial and temporal statistics were calculated for reservoir pressure and water saturation, and spatio-temporal variogram models were fitted to experimental variograms. These models provided the structural basis for spatio-temporal kriging, integrated with spatial estimates of time-invariant parameters (porosity, density, and thickness) to estimate GIP. This approach enabled estimation of GIP changes over time, including periods without data. Boxplots of GIP estimates indicated systematic depletion and decreasing spatial variability, reflecting the impacts of degasification. Comparison with cumulative gas production from empirical well records showed approximately 85% agreement based on a relative similarity metric. Spatio-temporal GIP estimates were also used to estimate methane emissions to longwall ventilation systems and compared with reported emissions from the U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, showing similar distributions (≈80%) given data limitations. Overall, this integrated modeling approach provides time-dependent GIP estimates with broader implications for resource assessment applications.

Alabama↗

USGS2012

Steroid hormone runoff from agricultural test plots applied with municipal biosolids

The potential presence of steroid hormones in runoff from sites where biosolids have been used as agricultural fertilizers is an environmental concern. A study was conducted to assess the potential for runoff of seventeen different hormones and two sterols, including androgens, estrogens, and progestogens from agricultural test plots. The field containing the test plots had been applied with biosolids for the first time immediately prior to this study. Target compounds were isolated by solid-phase extraction (water samples) and pressurized solvent extraction (solid samples), derivatized, and analyzed by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Runoff samples collected prior to biosolids application had low concentrations of two hormones (estrone <0.8 to 2.23 ng L -1 and androstenedione <0.8 to 1.54 ng L -1 ) and cholesterol (22.5 ± 3.8 μg L -1 ). In contrast, significantly higher concentrations of multiple estrogens (<0.8 to 25.0 ng L -1 ), androgens (<2 to 216 ng L -1 ), and progesterone (<8 to 98.9 ng L -1 ) were observed in runoff samples taken 1, 8, and 35 days after biosolids application. A significant positive correlation was observed between antecedent rainfall amount and hormone mass loads (runoff). Hormones in runoff were primarily present in the dissolved phase (<0.7-μm GF filter), and, to a lesser extent bound to the suspended-particle phase. Overall, these results indicate that rainfall can mobilize hormones from biosolids-amended agricultural fields, directly to surface waters or redistributed to terrestrial sites away from the point of application via runoff. Although concentrations decrease over time, 35 days is insufficient for complete degradation of hormones in soil at this site.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the satellite altimetry systems on changes in lake water levels. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions↗

USGS2003

Environmental fate of roxarsone in poultry litter. Part II. Mobility of arsenic in soils amended with poultry litter

Poultry litter often contains arsenic as a result of organo-arsenical feed additives. When the poultry litter is applied to agricultural fields, the arsenic is released to the environment and may result in increased arsenic in surface and groundwater and increased uptake by plants. The release of arsenic from poultry litter, litter-amended soils, and soils without litter amendment was examined by extraction with water and strong acids (HCI and HN03). The extracts were analyzed for As, C, P, Cu, Zn, and Fe. Copper, zinc, and iron are also poultry feed additives. Soils with a known history of litter application and controlled application rate of arsenic-containing poultry litter were obtained from the University of Maryland Agricultural Experiment Station. Soils from fields with long-term application of poultry litter were obtained from a tilled field on the Delmarva Peninsula (MD) and an untilled Oklahoma pasture. Samples from an adjacent forest or nearby pasture that had no history of litter application were used as controls. Depth profiles were sampled for the Oklahoma pasture soils. Analysis of the poultry litter showed that 75% of the arsenic was readily soluble in water. Extraction of soils shows that weakly bound arsenic mobilized by water correlates positively with C, P, Cu, and Zn in amended fields and appears to come primarily from the litter. Strongly bound arsenic correlates positively with Fe in amended fields and suggests sorption or coprecipitation of As and Fe in the soil column.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2021

The application of metacommunity theory to the management of riverine ecosystems

River managers strive to use the best available science to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function. To achieve this goal requires consideration of processes at different scales. Metacommunity theory describes how multiple species from different communities potentially interact with local-scale environmental drivers to influence population dynamics and community structure. However, this body of knowledge has only rarely been used to inform management practices for river ecosystems. In this article, we present a conceptual model outlining how the metacommunity processes of local niche sorting and dispersal can influence the outcomes of management interventions and provide a series of specific recommendations for applying these ideas as well as research needs. In all cases, we identify situations where traditional approaches to riverine management could be enhanced by incorporating an understanding of metacommunity dynamics. A common theme is developing guidelines for assessing the metacommunity context of a site or region, evaluating how that context may affect the desired outcome, and incorporating that understanding into the planning process and methods used. To maximize the effectiveness of management activities, scientists, and resource managers should update the toolbox of approaches to riverine management to reflect theoretical advances in metacommunity ecology.

WIREs Water↗

USGS2020

The response of stream ecosystems in the Adirondack region of New York to historical and future changes in atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen

The present-day acid-base chemistry of surface waters can be directly linked to contemporary observations of acid deposition; however, pre-industrial conditions are key to predicting the potential future recovery of stream ecosystems under decreasing loads of atmospheric sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition. The integrated biogeochemical model PnET-BGC was applied to 25 forest watersheds that represent a range of acid sensitivity in the Adirondack region of New York, USA to simulate the response of streams to past and future changes in atmospheric S and N deposition, and calculate the target loads of acidity for protecting and restoring stream water quality and ecosystem health. Using measured data, the model was calibrated and applied to simulate soil and stream chemistry at all study sites. Model hindcasts indicate that historically stream water chemistry in the Adirondacks was variable, but inherently sensitive to acid deposition. The median model-simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of the streams was projected to be 55 μeq L −1 before the advent of anthropogenic acid deposition (~1850), decreasing to minimum values of 10 μeq L −1 around the year 2000. The median simulated ANC increased to 13 μeq L −1 by 2015 in response to decreases in acid deposition that have occurred over recent decades. Model projections suggest that simultaneous decreases in sulfate, nitrate and ammonium deposition are more effective in restoring stream ANC than individual decreases in sulfur or nitrogen deposition. However, the increases in stream ANC per unit equivalent decrease in S deposition is greater compared to decreases in N deposition. Using empirical algorithms, fish community density and biomass are projected to increase under several deposition-control scenarios that coincide with increases in stream ANC. Model projections suggest that even under the most aggressive deposition-reduction scenarios, stream chemistry and fisheries will not fully recover from historical acidification by 2200.

New York↗

USGS2007

Whole-ecosystem study shows rapid fish-mercury response to changes in mercury deposition

Methylmercury contamination of fisheries from centuries of industrial atmospheric emissions negatively impacts humans and wild-life worldwide. The response of fish methylmercury concentrations to changes in mercury deposition has been difficult to establish because sediments/soils contain large pools of historical contamination, and many factors in addition to deposition affect fish mercury. To test directly the response of fish contamination to changing mercury deposition, we conducted a whole-ecosystem experiment, increasing the mercury load to a lake and its watershed by the addition of enriched stable mercury isotopes. The isotopes allowed us to distinguish between experimentally applied mercury and mercury already present in the ecosystem and to examine bioaccumulation of mercury deposited to different parts of the watershed. Fish methylmercury concentrations responded rapidly to changes in mercury deposition over the first 3 years of study. Essentially all of the increase in fish methylmercury concentrations came from mercury deposited directly to the lake surface. In contrast, <1% of the mercury isotope deposited to the watershed was exported to the lake. Steady state was not reached within 3 years. Lake mercury isotope concentrations were still rising in lake biota, and watershed mercury isotope exports to the lake were increasing slowly. Therefore, we predict that mercury emissions reductions will yield rapid (years) reductions in fish methylmercury concentrations and will yield concomitant reductions in risk. However, a full response will be delayed by the gradual export of mercury stored in watersheds. The rate of response will vary among lakes depending on the relative surface areas of water and watershed.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2018

Environmental conditions synchronize waterbird mortality events in the Great Lakes

Since the 1960s, periodic outbreaks of avian botulism type E have contributed to large-scale die-offs of thousands of waterbirds throughout the Great Lakes of the United States. In recent years, these events have become more common and widespread. Occurring during the summer and autumn months, the prevalence of these die-offs varies across years and is often associated with years of warmer lake temperatures and lower water levels. Little information exists on how environmental conditions mediate the spatial and temporal characteristics of mortality events. In 2010, a citizen science programme, Avian Monitoring for Botulism Lakeshore Events (AMBLE), was launched to enhance surveillance efforts and detect the appearance of beached waterbird carcasses associated with avian botulism type E outbreaks in northern Lake Michigan. Using these data, our goal was to quantify the within-year characteristics of mortality events for multiple species, and to test whether the synchrony of these events corresponded to fluctuations in two environmental factors suspected to be important in the spread of avian botulism: water temperature and the prevalence of green macroalgae. During two separate events of mass waterbird mortality, we found that the detection of bird carcasses was spatially synchronized at scales of c . 40 km. Notably, the extent of this spatial synchrony in avian mortality matched that of fluctuations in lake surface water temperatures and the prevalence of green macroalgae. Synthesis and applications . Our findings are suggestive of a synchronizing effect where warmer lake temperatures and the appearance of macroalgae mediate the characteristics of avian mortality. In future years, rising lake temperatures and a higher propensity of algal masses could lead to increases in the magnitude and synchronization of avian mortality due to botulism. We advocate that citizen-based monitoring efforts are critical for identifying the potential environmental conditions associated with widespread mortality events and estimating future risk to waterbird populations.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2018

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS1970

Nuclear methods applied to uranium geochemistry

Stable and radioactive daughter products produced from nuclear disintegrations of uranium have proved useful in fundamental studies of the geochemistry of uranium in igneous rock and sedimentary environments and in ore deposits. Information gained from geochemical studies of uranium migration has been used to develop models for attempts to date archeological, geological, and oceanographic environments represented by samples of bone, wood, charcoal, continental and marine carbonates, marine sediments, and glacially derived soils. Recent improvements of nuclear instrumentation and techniques allowed accurate measurements of natural radioactive isotopes, and it is now believed that radioactive equilibrium between the long-lived isotopes of the two uranium decay series is more the exception than the rule in nature. It was assumed that the 234U and 238U isotopes were in equilibrium until Thurber confirmed that considerable separation between 234U daughter and 238U parent exists in nature. It now has been documented that the 234U content may range from 60% deficient to 500% in excess relative to 238U. An excess of 15% of 234U isotope in sea water is well documented. A summary of previous work has shown that geochemical fractionation of the radioactive nuclides in 238U and 235U decay series takes place in the hydrologic environment, resulting in depletion of 230Th and 231Pa with respect to their parents, 238U, 234U, and 235U, in water and a complementary enrichment of these daughter nuclides in some sediments. Subsequent assimilation of Uranium, essentially free of radioactive daughters, occurs in some specific types of deposits such as carbonates and phosphates.

IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science↗

USGS2021

Machine learning models of arsenic in private wells throughout the conterminous United States as a tool for exposure assessment in human health studies

Arsenic from geologic sources is widespread in groundwater within the United States (U.S.). In several areas, groundwater arsenic concentrations exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level of 10 μg per liter (μg/L). However, this standard applies only to public-supply drinking water and not to private-supply, which is not federally regulated and is rarely monitored. As a result, arsenic exposure from private wells is a potentially substantial, but largely hidden, public health concern. Machine learning models using boosted regression trees (BRT) and random forest classification (RFC) techniques were developed to estimate probabilities and concentration ranges of arsenic in private wells throughout the conterminous U.S. Three BRT models were fit separately to estimate the probability of private well arsenic concentrations exceeding 1, 5, or 10 μg/L whereas the RFC model estimates the most probable category (≤5, >5 to ≤10, or >10 μg/L). Overall, the models perform best at identifying areas with low concentrations of arsenic in private wells. The BRT 10 μg/L model estimates for testing data have an overall accuracy of 91.2%, sensitivity of 33.9%, and specificity of 98.2%. Influential variables identified across all models included average annual precipitation and soil geochemistry. Models were developed in collaboration with public health experts to support U.S.-based studies focused on health effects from arsenic exposure.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2022

Watershed-scale risk to aquatic organisms from complex chemical mixtures in the Shenandoah River

River waters contain complex chemical mixtures derived from natural and anthropogenic sources. Aquatic organisms are exposed to the entire chemical composition of the water, resulting in potential effects at the organismal through ecosystem level. This study applied a holistic approach to assess landscape, hydrological, chemical, and biological variables. On-site mobile laboratory experiments were conducted to evaluate biological effects of exposure to chemical mixtures in the Shenandoah River Watershed. A suite of 534 inorganic and organic constituents were analyzed, of which 273 were detected. A watershed-scale accumulated wastewater model was developed to predict environmental concentrations of chemicals derived from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) to assess potential aquatic organism exposure for all stream reaches in the watershed. Measured and modeled concentrations generally were within a factor of 2. Ecotoxicological effects from exposure to individual components of the chemical mixture were evaluated using risk quotients (RQs) based on measured or predicted environmental concentrations and no effect concentrations or chronic toxicity threshold values. Seventy-two percent of the compounds had RQ values <0.1, indicating limited risk from individual chemicals. However, when individual RQs were aggregated into a risk index, most stream reaches receiving WWTP effluent posed potential risk to aquatic organisms from exposure to complex chemical mixtures.

Virginia↗

USGS2007

Role of sediment resuspension in the remobilization of particulate-phase metals from coastal sediments

The release of particulate-phase trace metals due to sediment resuspension has been investigated by combining erosion chamber experiments that apply a range of shear stresses typically encountered in coastal environments with a shear stress record simulated by a hydrodynamic model. Two sites with contrasting sediment chemistry were investigated. Sediment particles enriched in silver, copper, and lead, 4−50 times greater than the bulk surface-sediment content, were the first particles to be eroded. As the shear-stress level was increased in the chamber, the total mass eroded increased, but the enrichment of these trace metals fell, approaching the bulk-sediment content. From the temporal distribution of shear stress generated by the hydrodynamic model for a site in Boston Harbor, resuspension fluxes were estimated. The erosion threshold of this site is exceeded during spring tides, releasing the particles enriched in trace metals into the water column. Due to the higher trace metal content and the regularity of resuspension, low-energy resuspension events (up to a shear stress of 0.2 N/m 2 ) contribute up to 60% of the resuspension metal flux in an average year. The estimated annual quantity of copper and lead resuspended into the water column is higher than estimates of the total riverine flux for these metals. These results indicate that sediment resuspension is a very important mechanism for releasing metals into the water column and provide new insight into the chemical and physical processes controlling the long-term fate of trace metals in contaminated sediments.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

Exploring the impacts of seagrass on coupled marsh-tidal flat morphodynamics

Intertidal coastal environments are prone to changes induced by sea level rise, increases in storminess, temperature, and anthropogenic disturbances. It is unclear how changes in external drivers may affect the dynamics of low energy coastal environments because their response is non-linear, and characterized by many thresholds and discontinuities. As such, process-based modeling of the ecogeomorphic processes underlying the dynamics of these ecosystems is useful, not only to predict their change through time, but also to generate new hypotheses and research questions. Here, we used a three-point dynamic model to investigate how seagrass might affect the behavior of coupled marsh-tidal flat systems. The model directly incorporates ecogeomorphological feedbacks among wind waves, salt marsh vegetation, allochthonous sediment loading, seagrasses and sea level rise. The model was applied to examine potential behaviors of salt marsh systems in the Virginia coastal bays. Differences due to the presence or absence of seagrass and stochastic vs. constant drivers lead to the emergence of complex behaviors in the coupled salt marsh-tidal flat system. In intertidal areas without seagrass, small tidal flats are unlikely to expand and provide enough sediment to the salt marshes to combat sea level rise. However, as the tidal flat expands, the concurrent increase in sediment supply due to wave-induced processes allows for the salt marsh to maintain pace with sea level at the expense of salt marsh extent. The presence of seagrass has two effects: (1) it decreases near bed shear stresses thus reducing the sediment flux to the salt marsh platform; (2) it reduces the wave energy acting on the salt marsh scarp, thus reducing boundary erosion. Model results indicate that the reductions in wave power and near bed shear stresses when seagrass is present provide an overall stabilizing effect on the coupled marsh-tidal flat system; but as water depth increases due to sea level rise or as external sediment supply increases, light conditions decline and the system reverts to that of a bare tidal flat.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2020

The influence of climate variability on the accuracy of NHD perennial and non-perennial stream classifications

National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) stream permanence classifications (SPC; perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral) are widely used for data visualization and applied science, and have implications for resource policy and management. NHD SPC were assigned using a combination of topographic field surveys and interviews with local residents. However, previous studies indicate that non‐NHD, in situ streamflow observations (NNO) frequently disagree with NHD SPC. We hypothesized that differences in annual climate conditions between map creation years and the years NNO were collected contributed to disagreement between NNO and NHD SPC. We compared NHD SPC to 10,055 NNO (classified as “wet” or “dry”) collected in the Pacific Northwest between 1977 and 2015. Annual climate conditions were described with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Stream order was added as a covariate to account for different effects along the stream network. NHD SPC agreed with 80.5% of NNO. “Dry” NNO were five times more likely to disagree with NHD than “wet” NNO ( p < 0.0001). Disagreement was greatest on first‐order streams. When NHD SPC were collected during a wetter period than NNO the probability of disagreement increased by a factor of 1.17 ( p < 0.0001) per unit difference in PDSI. The influence of climate on disagreements between NNO and NHD SPC provides support for the continued development of dynamic models representing SPC as opposed to static NHD classifications.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2024

Modelling effects of flow withdrawal scenarios on riverine and riparian features of the Yampa River in Dinosaur National Monument

The National Park Service (NPS) is charged with maintaining natural riverine resources and processes in its parks along the Yampa River and downstream along the Green River. This mission requires information on how proposed water withdrawals would affect resources. We present a methodology that quantifies the impact on natural riverine and riparian features of Dinosaur National Monument based on alternative withdrawals that vary in volume and timing. This methodology uses a reverse quantification and develops tools to enable the NPS to ensure that if withdrawals must occur, the adverse impacts would be minimized by prescribing or constraining the timing, magnitude, and duration of withdrawal. The reverse quantification, well-suited for unregulated rivers such as the Yampa, strives to protect all flows minus extractions from daily flows based on three parameters: 1) a minimum flow, below which water diversion does not occur; 2) the percentage of the flow above the minimum that is diverted; 3) the maximum daily flow that is diverted. We apply 350 flow extraction scenarios, each defined by a unique set of parameters, to the 99 historic annual hydrographs of daily flows (water year (WY) 1922–2020), and to the more recent 20 years (WY 2001–2020). We also consider how hydrologic year type (wet to dry) influences the flow volume extracted and impact to the resource. Recognizing the seasonal differences in flow and ecological and geomorphic response, we divide each year into four distinct seasonal periods and use relations from the literature between flow, channel change, riparian vegetation and fish behavior, physiology, and habitat to define hydrograph and resource metrics used to evaluate impacts to the resource. While our analysis demonstrates that all withdrawals will damage the resource, extractions during the Early Runoff Period (March 15 – April 30) are least detrimental and extractions during the Summer Baseflow Period (July 16 – October 31) are most detrimental. We find that most aspects of the resource are more sensitive to increasing extractions during drier years than during wetter years. Recent decades have seen a shift towards more frequent drier years, resulting in less water in most periods. As a result, our analysis suggests that extractions in recent decades would have had a greater impact on the resource when compared to similar extractions during the full historical record. Finally, we demonstrate how the NPS may use these results to develop limits on extractions for resource protection.

Colorado, Utah↗