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Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Pecora 12 Symposium

Summary of the mineral- and energy-resource endowment, BLM roswell resource area, east-central New Mexico

In this summary of two comprehensive resource reports produced by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, we discuss the mineral- and energyresource endowment of the 14-millon-acre Roswell Resource Area, New Mexico, managed by the Bureau of Land Management. The Bureau and Survey reports result from separate studies that are compilations of published and unpublished data and integrate new findings on the geology, geochemistry, geophysics, mineral, industrial, and energy commodities, and resources for the seven-county area. The reports have been used by the Bureau of Land Management in preparation of the Roswell Resource Area Resource Management Plan, and will have future use in nationwide mineral- and energy-resource inventories and assessments, as reference and training documents, and as public-information tools. In the Roswell Resource Area, many metals, industrial mineral commodities, and energy resources are being, or have been, produced or prospected. These include metals and high-technology materials, such as copper, gold, silver, thorium, uranium and/or vanadium, rare-earth element minerals, iron, manganese, tungsten, lead, zinc, and molybdenum; industrial mineral resources, including barite, limestone/dolomite, caliche, clay, fluorspar, gypsum, scoria, aggregate, and sand and gravel; and fuels and associated resources, such as oil, gas, tar sand and heavy oil, coal, and gases associated with hydrocarbons. Other commodities that have yet to be identified in economic concentrations include potash, halite, polyhalite, anhydrite, sulfur, feldspar, building stone and decorative rock, brines, various gases associated with oil and gas exploration, and carbon dioxide. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources

Water use in Arkansas, 1995

As part of the National Water-Use Information Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stores water-use data in standardized format for different categories of water use. These data are aggregated by county, 4- and 8-digit hydrologic units, and aquifer in the Aggregated Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). Site-specific water-use data for public supply, commercial, industrial, mining, and power generation are stored in the Site-Specific Water-Use Data System (SSWUDS). Site-specific water-use for irrigation and livestock (stock and animal specialties) is stored in the Arkansas District's Water-Use Data Base System (WUDBS). Information about amounts of water withdrawn, sources of water, how the water was used, and how much was returned is available to water-resources managers and policy makers. From 1960 until about 1985, water-use data were collected and compiled in cooperation with Arkansas Geological Commission (AGC). Since 1985, water-use data have been collected and stored in cooperation with the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission (ASWCC). Updated reports are periodically required because water use changes with time. This report contains 1995 water-use data compiled as part of the National Water-Use Information Program.

Open-File Report

Estimating the effects of fish quality and size on the economic value of fishing in Oklahoma streams and rivers: A revealed preference and contingent behavior approach

Fishing in Oklahoma’s rivers and streams provides a unique experience for anglers in the state. Despite its popularity, information on total demand and economic benefits associated with stream fishing is limited in the state. Research on the role of site quality indicators, such as fish size and quantity, on recreational fishing has shown mixed results. Whether fish size or quantity plays an important role in determining fishing demand and economic value may have important management implications. We estimated the demand and economic value of fishing under varying scenarios by using anglers’ responses to hypothetical behavioral questions related to fishing in Ozark Highland streams and rivers in Oklahoma. We asked how intended number of trips might change in the future given hypothetical increases in catch rates of fish, catch rates of trophy-sized fish, and catch rates of preferred fish species, in combination with anglers’ trip-related data. Under current conditions, we estimated consumer surplus per person per trip to be $55 and aggregate value across all stream anglers in Oklahoma to be $68.51 million. Changes in marginal benefits varied among hypothetical scenarios of fish size and abundance but was maximized with a 25% increase in catch rates of trophy-sized fish. The study findings contribute to the understanding of the economic benefit of fishing in streams and suggest that fish size, rather than fish quantity, is more important to stream anglers in the area.

Oklahoma

Integrated monitoring of hydrogeomorphic, vegetative, and edaphic conditions in riparian ecosystems of Great Basin National Park, Nevada

In semiarid regions such as the Great Basin, riparian areas function as oases of cooler and more stable microclimates, greater relative humidity, greater structural complexity, and a steady flow of water and nutrients relative to upland areas. These qualities make riparian areaʼs attractive not only to resident and migratory wildlife, but also to visitors in recreation areas such as Great Basin National Park in the Snake Range, east-central Nevada. To expand upon the system of ten permanent plots sampled in 1992 (Smith et al. 1994) and 2001 (Beever et al. in press ), we established a collection of 31 cross-sectional transects of 50-m width across the mainstems of Strawberry, Lehman, Baker, and Snake creeks. Our aims in this research were threefold: a) map riparian vegetative communities in greater detail than had been done by past efforts; b) provide a monitoring baseline of hydrogeomorphology; structure, composition, and function of upland- and riparianassociated vegetation; and edaphic properties potentially sensitive to management; and c) test whether instream conditions or physiographic variables predicted vegetation patterns across the four target streams. In each of the four watersheds, we performed walking transects from the lower-elevation boundary of the park along creek mainstems to a point well above the point at which vehicle access stopped. In these transects, we ranked, by cover, the riparian and upland woody species on each side of the creek, in 0.32-km segments. These walking transects also facilitated selection of a suite of cross-sectional transects that might serve as an early-warning signal of change for natural (e.g., aggradative) and anthropogenic changes (e.g., due to visitor impacts or climate change). At each cross-sectional transect, we used several methods: a) measurement of the number, approximate volume, and total length of instream logs greater than 10 cm in diameter that were within 5 m up- or downstream of the transect; b) counts of pebbles by size class, following Wolman (1954); c) line-point intercepts, which provided various measures of percent cover; d) gap-intercept transects, following Herrick et al. (in press), to measure susceptibility of uplands to erosion by wind or water; e) 1-m 2 quadrats, to obtain frequency of woody species; f) nested-frequency plots, to measure frequency of all plant species in quadrats of varying size; g) a field-based soil aggregate stability test following Herrick et al. (2001); and h) an impact penetrometer, to measure penetration resistance of soil horizons. We used species-accumulation curves to assess the ability of our methods to detect the majority of plant species at sites, using the most species-rich and species-poor sites as illustrations. We compared characteristics of hydrogeomorphic valley types (designated by Frissell and Liss 1993), vegetation types, and creeks individually and, using multivariate analyses for the first two ʻtypes,ʼ simultaneously. For the latter, using both the nested-frequency and 1-m 2 frequency data, we first used nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to assess relationships of plant communities among sites. Secondly, we used multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) to test whether plant-community differences existed among either hydrogeomophic valley types or vegetation types. To increase the value of these comparisons for management, we used indicator species analyses to quantify the indicator value of each individual plant species for separating groups. In contrast to the more incised riparian channels of central Nevada, we observed knickzones, downcutting, and incision only rarely and usually with limited extent in the walking surveys. Downcutting occurred most frequently and extensively in Strawberry and Snake creeks, due in part to their more erodible soils. According to a hydrogeomorphologist with extensive experience in Great Basin riparian systems, the sediment-delivery and hydrologic systems appeared relatively undisturbed in most reaches, with respect to grazing animals and other types of anthropogenic alteration. Site elevation of the 31 transects ranged from 1,950-2,987 m, and stream slope (i.e., gradient) was relatively steep (mean = 9.3%, range 3-16%). Strawberry Creek averaged the lowest maximum water depth, and correspondingly had greatest width/depth ratios. Baker Creek sites averaged the smallest amount of tree-canopy gaps, whereas Snake Creek sites on average had the largest proportion of gaps in understory vegetation. Sites in terrace-bound valley types averaged the lowest slope in the channel as well as the least cover of trees, litter, and vegetation overall, whereas alluviated, boulder-bed canyon sites averaged the greatest widths of the active channel. Sites in Lehman Creek averaged nearly twice as much coarse woody debris as sites from any other creek, whereas Baker Creek sites averaged greatest tree cover (mean = 67%, range 40 – 96%) and species richness (mean = 17.3 species). Multivariate ordinations suggested that sites in leveed outwash valleys and alluvial-fan-influenced valleys had the greatest inter-site heterogeneity in plant composition, whereas sites in incised moraine-filled valleys appeared most homogeneous. Differences among homogeneity of sites within vegetation types were less pronounced, but sites dominated by either aspen and Woodsʼ rose or narrow-leaved cottonwood had the most similar plant communities among sites of the same vegetation type. A number of species were faithful indicators of various valley and vegetation types, using either set of plant-frequency data. We estimate that all 31 sites could be subsequently re-sampled in 14-18 field days by individuals possessing familiarity of the riparian flora of the southern Snake Range. As with any research, monitoring-focused investigations must balance the concerns for number of ecosystem attributes measured, extensiveness in time and space of sampling periods and locations, and the time and cost of sampling.

Nevada

A review of precipitation and temperature control on seedling emergence and establishment for ponderosa and lodgepole pine forest regeneration

The persistence of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine forests in the 21st century depends to a large extent on how seedling emergence and establishment are influenced by driving climate and environmental variables, which largely govern forest regeneration. We surveyed the literature, and identified 96 publications that reported data on dependent variables of seedling emergence and/or establishment and one or more independent variables of air temperature, soil temperature, precipitation and moisture availability. Our review suggests that seedling emergence and establishment for both species is highest at intermediate temperatures (20 to 25 °C), and higher precipitation and higher moisture availability support a higher percentage of seedling emergence and establishment at daily, monthly and annual timescales. We found that ponderosa pine seedlings may be more sensitive to temperature fluctuations whereas lodgepole pine seedlings may be more sensitive to moisture fluctuations. In a changing climate, increasing temperatures and declining moisture availability may hinder forest persistence by limiting seedling processes. Yet, only 23 studies in our review investigated the effects of driving climate and environmental variables directly. Furthermore, 74 studies occurred in a laboratory or greenhouse, which do not often replicate the conditions experienced by tree seedlings in a field setting. It is therefore difficult to provide strong conclusions on how sensitive emergence and establishment in ponderosa and lodgepole pine are to these specific driving variables, or to investigate their potential aggregate effects. Thus, the effects of many driving variables on seedling processes remain largely inconclusive. Our review stresses the need for additional field and laboratory studies to better elucidate the effects of driving climate and environmental variables on seedling emergence and establishment for ponderosa and lodgepole pine.

Forest Ecology and Management

An initial assessment of plankton tow detection probabilities for dreissenid mussels in the western United States

Early detection of dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis ) is crucial to mitigating the economic and environmental impacts of an infestation. Plankton tow sampling is a common method used for early detection of dreissenid mussels, but little is known about the sampling intensity required for a high probability of early detection using the method. We used implicit dynamic occupancy models to estimate plankton tow detection probabilities of dreissenid mussels from a long-term data set containing plankton tow samples collected across central and western United States. We fit models using a) the entire data set, including water bodies with unknown occupancy status in addition to heavily infested water bodies, b) a data subset that included water bodies with paired water temperature data, and c) a data subset that included water bodies with lower dreissenid densities. For the entire data set, we found that estimated detection probabilities varied by water body size and ranged from approximately 0.10 to 0.86. For the water temperature subset, we observed the same pattern between detection probability and water body size as we did for the full data but additionally found that the estimated detection probabilities were much higher when water temperatures were above 12 °C. For the lower dreissenid density subset, we found that the estimated probability of detecting dreissenid mussels with a single aggregated plankton tow sample was near zero. Given these estimates, we conclude that the number of aggregated plankton tow samples taken per water body in the data is far fewer than the number needed to ensure a high probability of detecting dreissenid mussels, especially if they are at low densities. We summarize the analyses with a discussion of plankton tow sampling protocol changes needed to improve estimates of dreissenid detection probabilities.

western United States

Same view through a different lens: Comparing population trends for North American birds using eBird and the Breeding Bird Survey

Confidently estimating population trends is of vital importance for a wide range of ecological, conservation, and management applications. North America has 2 major data sources for estimating population trends of breeding birds—the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the global participatory science project eBird. Because the surveys differ in protocols, coverage, and data analysis, their trend estimates are expected to vary in magnitude, direction, and/or precision for at least some species and regions. Here, we compare independently derived estimates of population change between 2012 and 2022 for every combination of species and bird conservation region (BCR) covered by both surveys ( n = 5,577 combinations) as well as aggregated across entire ranges or within the U.S. or Canada. Uncertainty was substantial for both surveys, though more prevalent for BBS (81% of credibility intervals for estimates included zero) than eBird (34% of confidence intervals overlapped zero). We found agreement of trend directions between the 2 surveys. Only 1.3% of estimated trends were significant in opposite directions between the 2 surveys for all species/BCR combinations, with the median difference in trend magnitude being –0.02% (BBS minus eBird trend). Correlations between the 2 were strongest for estimates that were graded as being high credibility compared to estimates judged to have medium or low credibility. Both surveys were subject to species, taxonomic, and regional effects that influenced agreement. Overall, we show where trend estimates derived from BBS and eBird agree, explore where they diverge, present several comparisons to assist in interpreting results from both surveys, and inform efforts to integrate information from each.

Ornithological Applications

Sediment classification and the characterization, identification, and mapping of geologic substrates for the glaciated Gulf of Maine seabed and other terrains, providing a physical framework for ecological research and seabed management

A geologic substrate is a surface (or volume) of sediment or rock where physical, chemical, and biological processes occur, such as the movement and deposition of sediment, the formation of bedforms, and the attachment, burrowing, feeding, reproduction, and sheltering of organisms. Seabed mapping surveys in the Stellwagen Bank region off Boston, Massachusetts, from 1993 to 2004 have led to the development of a methodology for characterizing, identifying, and mapping geologic substrates. The resulting high-resolution interpretive maps (1:25,000) show the distribution of substrates in a glaciated terrain of banks and basins in water depths of 30 to 185 meters. Data sources used to characterize substrates are multibeam sonar bathymetric and backscatter imagery to document seabed topography and patterns of sediment and rock distribution, grain-size analyses of sediment samples to determine substrate composition, and video and photographic imagery of the seabed to aid in the interpretation of multibeam sonar imagery and to provide information on substrate layering and mobility, seabed structures, and sediments and nonsediment materials that cannot be physically sampled. Sediment composition is a major property of many seabed substrates. Sediment grains belong to a continuum of grain-diameter sizes previously classified into grades (for example, fine sand, medium sand) and into aggregates (mud, sand, gravel). The definition of grade and aggregate boundaries in a classification is arbitrary, and a useful classification is limited to as few classes as are needed to effectively organize and apply information. For the purpose of mapping substrates, sediment grades and aggregates were simplified and re-classified into eight composite grades based on grain-size content, mode of transport, and ecological role. Five composite grades are identified using grain-size analysis and three are identified using video and photographic imagery of the seabed. Naturally occurring sediments contain various amounts of the aggregates mud, sand, and gravel. The separation of naturally occurring sediments into sediment classes, based on grain-size analysis, requires that limits be set on the amount of mud, sand, and gravel each class contains. Fifteen previously identified basic sediment classes provided interpretive information on sediment transport by emphasizing gravel content (a low 0.01-weight-percent threshold) and on winnowing processes based on the sand-to-mud ratio. The present study recognizes 20 basic sediment classes that are combinations of aggregates in which the lower limits for recognition of mud and sand are 10 weight percent and of gravel, 25 weight percent. These sediment classes can be made more specific by listing their content of the composite grades fine-grained sand (3 and 4 phi), which is transported in suspension, and coarse-grained sand (0, 1, and 2 phi), which is transported as bedload. Additional sediment classes and nonsediment classes that cannot be sampled are recognized on the basis of visual analysis of seabed video and photographic imagery and include pebble, cobble, and boulder gravel, rock outcrops, and shell beds, among others. Substrates are not classified because their properties are too varied for a classification to be concise and useful. Rather, substrates are characterized and identified by sediment grain-size composition (the sediment class); the distribution, in millimeters, of grain diameters in the sediment; the presence of nonsediments (for example, rock outcrops); substrate mobility based on the presence of sediment ripples; substrate layering (for example, a partial veneer of sand on gravel); and seabed structures. These properties have interpretive value by providing information about sedimentary processes acting on a substrate and about its ecological function. A geologic substrate, when it is associated with one or more species, is an important element of a habitat. This methodology was developed to map a glaciated terrain characterized by geologic substrates that typify a wide range of erosional and depositional sedimentary environments, and it likely will be useful for mapping substrates in other terrains. Substrate maps provide the physical framework required for identifying sediment transport processes, validating sediment transport models, studying the ecology of species and communities, and managing marine resources and seabed usage.

Massachusetts

Colonial nesting Yellow-crowned Night Herons on the San Antonio River Walk

Yellow-crowned Night Herons (Nyctinassa violacea) typically nest as single pairs or in small colonies of about four pairs with high internest distances. They are also reported as susceptible to disturbance and to avoid habitat with high human use. However, some Yellowcrowned Night Herons habituate to human-dominated landscapes and nest in residential areas. I located a colony of nesting Yellow-crowned Night Herons in San Antonio, Texas on the River Walk, a popular tourist destination with an estimated 2.5 million visitors annually. I located 68 and 71 active nests in 2008 and 2009, respectively. This suggests the breeding population of the colony was 142 adult birds (77 adult herons/linear km of River Walk) in 2009. Herons occurred in a colony with three nesting aggregations situated 241 (±14 SD) m apart. Aggregations averaged 23.7 (±8.7 SD) nests each with one–nine nests per tree; nest trees within each aggregation were usually adjacent. Nests averaged 16.7 m (±4.1 SD) above ground, with 56% of nests over the river, 23% over sidewalks, 17% over dining areas, and 3% over landscaping. Only bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) was used for nest trees, and these were significantly taller and larger in diameter than random bald cypress trees. The herons were habituated to pedestrian activities, often perching only a few meters over sidewalks or dining areas, and foraging along the water’s edge as pedestrians passed within 4–5 m. Nests located over dining areas and sidewalks do impose some management issues. It is apparent the species is capable of habituating to human activities to exploit suitable urban settings for nesting and foraging habitat.

Texas

A strategy for defining the reference for land health and degradation assessments

Much of the confusion about the definition of reference conditions for land health and degradation assessments is due to differences in policy and management objectives. Selection of a historic reference where it is not necessary, such as in the definition of future land degradation neutrality, can add significant cost and uncertainty to land management projects that require some knowledge of the current status of the land relative to its potential. This paper (1) provides a review of conditions under which historic reference information is and is not required to meet management and policy objectives, (2) summarizes current approaches to defining the reference for land health and degradation assessments, and (3) presents a protocol, “Describing Indicators of Rangeland Health” (DIRH) for collecting and organizing data that can be used to define a historic reference. This protocol builds on the framework and indicators presented in the “Interpreting Indicators of Rangeland Health” (IIRH). IIRH uses a combination of scientific and local knowledge to generate soil- and climate-specific assessments of three attributes of land health. It is used in a number of countries. In the United States, data are aggregated over 30,000 locations to provide national assessments.

Ecological Indicators

Grizzly bear use of army cutworm moths in the Yellowstone Ecosystem

The ecology of alpine aggregations of army cutworm moths ( Euxoa auxiliaris ) and the feeding behavior of grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) at these areas were studied in the Yellowstone ecosystem from 1988 to 1991. Army cutworm moths migrate to mountain regions each summer to feed at night on the nectar of alpine and subalpine flowers, and during the day they seek shelter under various rock formations. Grizzly bears were observed feeding almost exclusively on moths up to 3 months each summer at the 10 moth-aggregation areas we identified. Fifty-one different grizzly bears were observed feeding at 4 of these areas during a single day in August 1991. Army cutworm moths are a preferred source of nutrition for many grizzly bears in the Yellowstone ecosystem and represent a high quality food that is available during hyperphagia.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Multiple metrics provide context for the distribution of a highly mobile fish predator, the blue catfish

Data sets with increased spatial and temporal resolution can help researchers and resource managers quantify representative distributional patterns of mobile sportfish. In this research, first, we illustrate patterns of sportfish distribution using individual ( percent of population, residence time, number of movements ) and combined distributional metrics. Second, we apply these metrics to one highly mobile fish species, the blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus ), across a range of spatial (whole reservoir, region, site) and temporal (year, month, diel period) scales. Specifically, we tracked 123 acoustically tagged blue catfish with a 20-receiver array in Milford Reservoir, KS, USA. When we integrated metrics, four site-specific distributional patterns emerged: (a) a large, active multi-site fish aggregation, (b) localised site fidelity, (c) transitional sites and (d) rarely used locations. These patterns would not have been detected using a single metric as each measurement revealed a different piece of the distribution story. For example, if we had only quantified percent of population, we could identify fish location, but not whether individual fish spent time at a location or were just passing through. Our examination of multiple scales also provided a novel context for interpreting site-specific patterns. As an illustration of this insight, using conventional approaches, we would have observed heterogeneity, but we would not have detected fish aggregations, in which individual fish either remained or repeatedly returned to a site. In summary, our results show the advantage of setting the entire ecosystem as the study boundary to integrate multiple responses using a spatially and temporally extensive data set.

Kansas

Temporal and spatial relationships of Yellowfin Tuna to deepwater petroleum platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico

In 2006–2007, 110 Yellowfin Tuna Thunnus albacares were tagged with acoustic transmitters near deepwater oil platforms and one drillship in the northern Gulf of Mexico off the Mississippi River delta to determine the extent to which platforms act as fish aggregating devices (FADs). Vemco acoustic receivers were installed on six deepwater platforms to detect the presence of tagged individuals. Five of 12 Yellowfin Tuna captured in 2006 were detected in 2007, demonstrating multi-year presence in the region. Ninety Yellowfin Tuna were detected in 2007, resulting in 221 platform residencies and 32 single detections. Duration of residence at a platform was positively correlated with the platform's depth, and the number of transitions decreased with platform-to-platform distance. In total, 109 movements between platforms by 46 (51%) different individuals were detected, traveling distances of up to 98.2 km. Yellowfin Tuna displayed interactions with deepwater platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico similar to their interactions with FADs and other studied geological features, by way of aggregating or using them as meeting points, landmarks, and stopovers within a movement corridor. The large number of oil and gas platforms located in the northern Gulf of Mexico may have a significant effect on distribution, retention, and migration of Yellowfin Tuna populations in this area of the gulf.

Louisiana

Assessment of prerestoration water quality in the Herring River to support adaptive management at the Cape Cod National Seashore

In 2020 and 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey, Cape Cod National Seashore of the National Park Service, and Friends of Herring River cooperated to assess nutrient and suspended sediment concentrations across the ocean-estuary boundary at a dike on the Herring River on Chequessett Neck Road in Wellfleet, Massachusetts, that has restricted saltwater inputs by regulating water inflow through three culverts or sluiceways into the watershed for more than 100 years. The dike is slated to be removed, and the purpose of this project was to characterize natural variability of nutrient and suspended sediment concentration during flood tide and ebb tide conditions at the dike based on seasonal and environmental variables. This baseline can be used to assess if removal of the dike is likely to result in measurable changes in water quality. Data from the current [2023] study were aggregated with previously published data from November 2015 through September 2018 to provide a long-term record. Samples for the current [2023] study were collected from flood and following ebb tides approximately twice per month from June 2020 through December 2021 at fixed time intervals after the beginning of the tides. Samples were analyzed for nitrate plus nitrite, ammonium, total dissolved nitrogen, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, total dissolved phosphorus, total phosphorus, silica, dissolved organic carbon, and suspended sediment. Constituent concentrations generally were lower using fixed time sampling than in previous studies that used flow-weighted composite sampling, except for nitrate plus nitrite and orthophosphate. Concentrations of nitrate plus nitrite, ammonium, total nitrogen, total dissolved nitrogen, silica, and dissolved organic nitrogen generally were higher on the ebb tide than on the flood tide. By contrast, concentrations of orthophosphate, total phosphorus, and total dissolved phosphorus were generally similar between flood and ebb tides. Most nutrient concentrations except silica and ammonium varied seasonally on flood and ebb tides. Phosphorus species, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations generally peaked in mid- to late summer and were lowest in winter. For nitrate, the reverse was true. Nutrient concentrations generally were higher on the ebb tide than on the flood tide except for total dissolved phosphorus and total phosphorus where differences between flood and ebb tide depended on season. Constituent concentrations were similar between spring, neap, and midamplitude tides on both the flood and ebb tides. Nitrate, ammonium, total nitrogen, and silica concentrations were positively correlated with precipitation and runoff. Orthophosphate, total dissolved phosphorus, total phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon were positively correlated with surface air temperature, downwelling shortwave radiation, and ocean water temperature. Nitrate, ammonium, and silica concentration were negatively correlated with surface air temperature and ocean water temperature. Orthophosphate and total dissolved phosphorus were negatively correlated with runoff. Nitrate plus nitrite, ammonium, and silica concentrations were negatively correlated with downwelling shortwave radiation.

Massachusetts

Hippopotamus movements structure the spatiotemporal dynamics of an active anthrax outbreak

Globally, anthrax outbreaks pose a serious threat to people, livestock, and wildlife. Furthermore, environmental change can exacerbate these outbreak dynamics by altering the host–pathogen relationship. However, little is known about how the quantitative spatial dynamics of host movement and environmental change may affect the spread of Bacillus anthracis , the causative agent of anthrax. Here, we use real-time observations and high-resolution tracking data from a population of common hippopotamus ( Hippopotamus amphibius ) in Tanzania to explore the relationship between river hydrology, H. amphibius movement, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of an active anthrax outbreak. We found that extreme river drying, a consequence of anthropogenic disturbances to our study river, indirectly facilitated the spread of B. anthracis by modulating H. amphibius movements. Our findings reveal that anthrax spread upstream in the Great Ruaha River (~3.5 km over a 9-day period), which followed the movement patterns of infected H. amphibius , who moved upstream as the river dried in search of remaining aquatic refugia. These upstream movements can result in large aggregations of H. amphibius . However, despite these aggregations, the density of H. amphibius in river pools did not influence the number of B. anthracis -induced mortalities. Moreover, infection by B. anthracis did not appear to influence H. amphibius movement behaviors, which suggests that infected individuals can vector B. anthracis over large distances right up until their death. Finally, we show that contact rates between H. amphibius- and B. anthracis- infected river pools are highly variable and the frequency and duration of contacts could potentially increase the probability of mortality. While difficult to obtain, the quantitative insights that we gathered during a real-time anthrax outbreak are critical to better understand, predict, and manage future outbreaks.

Ruaha National Park

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Ecosphere