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USGS2007

A Science Plan for a Comprehensive Regional Assessment of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifer System in Maryland

The Maryland Coastal Plain region is, at present, largely dependent upon ground water for its water supply. Decades of increasing pumpage have caused ground-water levels in parts of the Maryland Coastal Plain to decline by as much as 2 feet per year in some areas of southern Maryland. Continued declines at this rate could affect the long-term sustainability of ground-water resources in Maryland's heavily populated Coastal Plain communities and the agricultural industry of the Eastern Shore. In response to a recommendation in 2004 by the Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources, the Maryland Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information and new data management and analysis tools for the State to use in allocating ground water in the Coastal Plain. The comprehensive assessment has five goals aimed at improving the current information and tools used to understand the resource potential of the aquifer system: (1) document the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system in the Maryland Coastal Plain and appropriate areas of adjacent states; (2) conduct detailed studies of the regional ground-water-flow system and water budget for the aquifer system; (3) improve documentation of patterns of water quality in all Coastal Plain aquifers, including the distribution of saltwater; (4) enhance ground-water-level, streamflow, and water-quality-monitoring networks in the Maryland Coastal Plain; and (5) develop science-based tools to facilitate sound management of the ground-water resources in the Maryland Coastal Plain. The assessment, as designed, will be conducted in three phases and if fully implemented, is expected to take 7 to 8 years to complete. Phase I, which was initiated in January 2006, is an effort to assemble all the information and investigation tools needed to do a more comprehensive assessment of the aquifer system. The work will include updating the hydrogeologic framework, developing a Geographic Information System-based aquifer information system, refinement of water-use information, assessment of existing water-quality data, and development of detailed plans for ground-water-flow and management models. Phase II is an intensive study phase during which a regional ground-water-flow model will be developed and calibrated for the entire region of Maryland in the Atlantic Coastal Plain as well as appropriate areas of Delaware and Virginia. The model will be used to simulate flow and water levels in the aquifer system and to study the water budget of the system. The model analysis will be based on published information but will be supplemented with field investigations of recharge and leakage in the aquifer system. Localized and finely discretized ground-water-flow models that are embedded in the regional model will be developed for selected areas of heavy withdrawals. Other modeling studies will be conducted to better understand flow in the unconfined parts of the aquifer system and to support the recharge studies. Phase II will also include selected water-quality studies and a study to determine how hydrologic and water-quality-monitoring networks need to be enhanced to appropriately assess the sustainability of the Coastal Plain aquifer system. Phase III will be largely devoted to the development and application of a ground-water optimization model. This model will be linked to the ground-water-flow model to create a model package that can be used to test different water-management scenarios. The management criteria that will be used to develop these scenarios will be determined in consultation with a variety of state and local stakeholders and policy makers in Phases I and II of the assessment. The development of the aquifer information system is a key component of the assessment. The system will store all relevant aquifer data

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton and water-quality sample data from 2006 to 2008 were combined with parts of a larger discrete-sample and continuous water-quality monitoring dataset and examined to identify patterns in water-quality and algal conditions since 1991, with a particular emphasis on 2003–08. Longitudinal plankton surveys were conducted in 2006–08 at six sites between river miles (RM) 24.5 and 3.4 at 2- to 3-week intervals, or 5–6 per season, and in-situ bioassay experiments were conducted in 2008 to examine the potential effects of wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) effluent and phosphorus additions on phytoplankton biomass and algal photosynthesis. Phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition, streamflow, and water-quality data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques to gain insights into plankton dynamics to determine what factors might be most tied to the abundance and characteristics of the phytoplankton assemblages, and identify possible causes of their declines. The connection between low-DO events and algal declines was clearly evident, as bloom crashes were nearly always followed by periods of low DO. Algal blooms occurred each year during 2006–08, producing maximum chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) values in June or July generally in the range of 50–80 micrograms per liter (µg/L). Bloom crashes and absence of sufficient algal photosynthesis in mid- to late-summer contributed to minimum DO concentrations that were less than the State standard of 6.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) based on the 30-day mean daily concentration, for 62–74 days each year. At times, the absolute minimum State standard (4 mg/L DO) also was not met. To learn more about why low-DO events occurred, specific algal declines during 2003–08 were scrutinized to determine their likely causal factors. From this information, a series of hypotheses were formulated and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain recent declines in algal populations in the river in late summer. Meteorological, streamflow, turbidity, water temperature, and conductance conditions in the Tualatin River during the 2006–08 summer seasons were not atypical. Natural flow comprised the majority (70–80 percent) of flow each year during spring, but then reduced to 38–40 percent during midsummer when WWTF effluent—which contributed as much as 36 percent—and flow augmentation releases comprised a greater fraction of the flow. Summer 2008 was unusual, however, in the prolonged influence from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston in the upper part of the basin. The previous winter flooding and levee breach at Wapato Lake caused a much greater area of inundation. As a result, drainage from this area continued into July, much later than normal. A subsequent algal bloom in Wapato Lake then seeded the upper Tualatin River, and this drainage had a profound effect on the downstream plankton community. A large blue-green algae bloom developed—the largest in recent memory—prompting a public health advisory for recreational contact for about two weeks. Algal growths and surface blooms are a common feature of the Tualatin River. Most of the dominant algae have growth forms and morphologies that are well suited for planktonic life, employing spines and gas vacuoles to resist settling, forming colonies, and producing mucilage (or toxins) to resist zooplankton grazing. In 2006–08, 143 algal taxa were identified in 117 main-stem samples; diatoms and green algae were more diverse than blue-green, golden, and cryptophyte algae, although these later groups sometimes dominated the overall volumetric abundance (biovolume). The most frequently occurring taxa, occurring in 97–99 percent of samples, were flagellated cryptophytes Cryptomonas erosa and Rhodomonas minuta. Other important algal taxa included centric diatoms Stephanodiscus, Cyclotella, and Melosira species and colonial green algae Scenedesmus and Actinastrum. These taxa comprised the majority of the algal biovolume during much of the growing season. A general seasonal trend in the phytoplankton assemblages was observed, with dominance by filamentous centric diatoms Stephanodiscus and Melosira in spring and early summer, and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae, particularly Chlamydomonas sp., in late-summer; or, in 2008, dominance by blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae during the Wapato Lake bloom event. There were 99 zooplankton taxa identified from the Tualatin River in 2006–08, composed primarily of cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers. A seasonal increase in zooplankton abundance was observed in early summer just as or shortly after the phytoplankton population began to increase, with populations growing to 15,000−120,000 organisms per cubic meter in the lower river. Zooplankton abundance showed a predictable and distinct longitudinal downstream increase, particularly downstream of Highway 99W (RM 11.6). Although grazing rates were not measured, the data suggest that, at times, zooplankton grazing may affect algal abundance and species composition in the Tualatin River, with diatoms becoming relatively less abundant and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae relatively more abundant during periods when zooplankton densities were highest. Multivariate statistical analyses identified soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), natural flow, flow augmentation, and WWTF effluent as important factors influencing Tualatin River phytoplankton populations, with zooplankton density (particularly rotifers and copepods), specific conductance, chloride, and water temperature also having an important influence. Although SRP was highly correlated with the plankton communities, that correlation was likely the result of high or low algal activity (uptake) as SRP concentrations were often reduced to low levels during blooms. While previous studies have already established that phosphorus, among other factors such as flow, places a theoretical cap on the size of the phytoplankton population in the river, sometimes algal declines occur when SRP concentrations are apparently sufficient. To identify alternative causal factors, additional analyses were performed without SRP to focus on other water-quality parameters, zooplankton density, and flow factors. Considering data for all 3 years and including just those samples from the lower Tualatin River not affected by the 2008 Wapato Lake drainage event, three factors (percentage of reservoir flow augmentation, total natural flow, and rotifer density) best explained variations in the phytoplankton assemblages. Analyses focusing on the possible causes of algal declines included the above multivariate analyses, scrutiny of 10 specific instances of declines in algal populations during 2003–08 including several bloom–crash sequences, and analyses of historic routine watershed monitoring data from Clean Water Services. Six factors were hypothesized to be important in causing bloom crashes or impeding blooms from rebounding in August: (1) light limitation from cloudy weather, (2) a reduction in the plankton inocula or “seed” entering the lower river from upstream sources, (3) increased summer streamflows, (4) changes in the dominant sources of flow as the percentage of flow augmentation and WWTF discharges have increased, (5) zooplankton grazing, and (6) low concentrations of bioavailable phosphorus (<0.015 milligram per liter). All of these hypotheses are supported in some fashion by the available data and statistical analyses. Zooplankton grazing, short-term declines in photosynthesis from cloudy weather, total flow as it affects residence time, and the dominant source of flow are primary factors responsible for the low-DO events caused by declines in algae in the lower Tualatin River during late summer. Cloudy weather and increased turbidity are known to inhibit algal growth in the Tualatin River, and slight increases in turbidity in recent years may be a problem. Upstream sources of algae are critical in determining the characteristics and size of downstream populations, as illustrated by the Wapato Lake bloom in 2008, but more data are needed from upstream to fully define the importance of this connection. The sources of flow, through their differential contribution of plankton inocula (quality and amount), were, at times, important factors affecting phytoplankton populations. While SRP concentrations were often most highly correlated with phytoplankton species community, the bioavailability of phosphorus is still somewhat unknown and there are several sources to consider. Preliminary bioassay tests suggested that while treated wastewater effluent may stimulate algae at 30 percent concentrations, negative effects (or decreased stimulation) on Chl-a and DO production may occur at concentrations of 50 percent. Targeted data collection and future research will be needed to further understand the importance of these factors on Tualatin River phytoplankton. While the data and analysis completed for this report provide insights into future research and monitoring that would be useful to continue, additional monitoring of turbidity, Chl-a, and plankton abundance and species composition in the upper part of the basin would enhance our understanding of plankton dynamics and factors affecting phytoplankton abundance in the lower river. Assessment of the key upstream sources of algal inocula via surveys of the major flow sources as well as tributaries and wetlands would provide useful information for the management of river water quality. Other studies that could prove useful for developing management strategies include targeted experiments to evaluate the bioavailability of phosphorus from a variety of sources. New research on phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions, and studies of planktivorous fish, might also provide insight about food web dynamics and potential “top-down” effects of fish predation on the plankton communities. In addition, further development of neural-network or other water-quality models would help to evaluate management strategies and provide forecasts of water-quality conditions. Finally, periodic future reassessments of the available data with the multivariate statistical tools used in this study would be helpful to assess whether and how plankton communities are changing, and to continue to shed light on the importance of factors shaping the plankton. Although certain types and sizes of algal blooms are undesirable, minimum phytoplankton populations are an important part of aquatic food webs and are needed to maintain healthy levels of DO in the river. By understanding the sources, characteristics, causal factors, and responses of the plankton communities, management strategies can be developed to improve DO conditions in the lower Tualatin River during the important summer low-flow period.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Habitat suitability index model improvement recommendations

As part of the model improvement effort for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models used during previous master plans were reevaluated to assess how the model relationships could be improved, and to determine what species should be included in the master plan analyses. This process considered the technical reviews, comments, and suggested improvements provided by model developers, advisory groups, and other experts during previous master plans. Reviews were then conducted to determine the availability of data and information that could be used to make model improvements. As a result of this effort, a recommended list of relevant species to model is provided, and HSI model improvements are recommended that are categorized by whether the suitability index (SI) relationship to be improved is statistical-based or literature-based. The species recommended to be included in the 2023 Coastal Master Plan analyses are: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. These species were selected because they represent a range of taxonomies, life histories, trophic levels, and habitats, and most are commercially- or recreationally-important in coastal Louisiana. Most of these species were also included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the models used during that effort should be further improved. Seaside sparrow and bald eagle are new for the master plan, and new models should be developed for the analyses. The 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models included a water quality SI that was based on statistical analyses of species catch and environmental data collected by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. As suggested during the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, the modeling approach used to develop the water quality SI was revisited and alternate modeling approaches were explored. Using literature and an evaluation of the general steps of model development, three components for HSI model improvement were identified, including 1) selecting alternative modeling approach(es); 2) detecting and resolving statistical issues; and 3) improving model fit and evaluation. Multiple options for each component were explored, which resulted in a proposed multi-step phased approach for model improvement. This proposed approach entails improving the generalized linear models used for the 2017 water quality SIs and then, if desired, comparing them to alternative model approaches (e.g., generalized additive models) to explore model performance and select the best approach to use for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models. All of the existing master plan HSI models include literature-based SIs, which use information from published studies of species-habitat associations to derive suitability relationships. Similar to previous master plans, these literature-based SIs should be updated and improved for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan using recent literature and new ecological knowledge. Preliminary reviews were conducted and recent information was found that could be used to improve the eastern oyster, crayfish, and potentially brown pelican HSI models; but no appropriate recent literature was located for improvement of the American alligator, gadwall, and mottled duck HSI models. However, it is recommended that the literature reviews and information searches be continued. In addition to the statistical-based water quality SI, the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models also included a structural habitat SI that was based on literature showing high densities of these species in fragmented marsh. The relationship used for this SI, however, did not account for the effects of other estuarine habitats, such as submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important to these species. Therefore, a meta-analysis approach is proposed that would estimate the relative importance of these habitats for each species, and the results of this analysis could be used to calculate a new structural habitat SI for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan.

Report↗
USGS2019

Spatial and temporal variability of harmful algal blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, May through November 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE), completed a study to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, over a range of environmental conditions at various time scales (hours to months). A better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacteria and microcystin will inform sampling and management strategies for Milford Lake and for other lakes with cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB) issues throughout the Nation. Spatial and temporal variability were assessed in the upstream one-third of Milford Lake (designated as “Zone C” by KDHE) during May through November 2016 using a combination of time-lapse photography, continuous water-quality monitors, discrete phytoplankton, chlorophyll, and microcystin samples, and spatially dense near-surface data. Combined, these data were used to characterize variability of cyanobacterial abundance, algal biomass, and microcystin concentrations in Zone C of Milford Lake before, during, and after cyanobacterial blooms in 2016. Temporal patterns were evaluated during May through November 2016 using time-lapse photography at six locations in Zone C and at a single point location (the Wakefield site) using a combination of discrete and continuously measured water-quality data (including the cyanobacterial pigment phycocyanin). Based on time-lapse photography, CyanoHABs developed in Zone C of Milford Lake in early July and persisted through the end of November. Bloom accumulations at individual sites were dependent on wind direction. After a change in wind direction, it would take about 1 day for accumulations to become visible at different locations. During periods with low wind, accumulations were widespread and visible at all sites. Cyanobacteria were absent from the algal community at the Wakefield site in late May and were a minor component of the community in June; however, by mid-July the cyanobacteria were dominant and remained dominant until early November. Chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site were estimated using sensor-measured phycocyanin based on regression models developed for Zone C. Regression-estimated concentrations likely are more indicative of seasonal patterns in algal biomass (as indicated by chlorophyll concentrations) and microcystin than discretely collected samples because regression-estimated data have a much higher temporal resolution. Based on regression estimates, algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site steadily increased from May through August. After August, concentrations decreased but remained relatively high compared to May and June. Daily chlorophyll maxima were as much as 400 times higher than daily minima, and daily microcystin maxima were as many as several orders of magnitude higher than daily minima. The extreme variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site reflects the development and dissipation of blooms, as indicated by the time-lapse cameras. Based on regression-estimated microcystin concentrations, the KDHE watch and warning thresholds for microcystin were exceeded during mid-June through late November. Exceedance of KDHE advisory thresholds often changed from no advisory to watch or warning over the course of the day because of the variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations caused by bloom development and dissipation. Continuous water-quality monitors may be useful in informing public-health decisions in lakes with variable CyanoHAB conditions; however, site-specific models need to be developed, and best practices for using continuous water-quality monitors to inform CyanoHAB management strategies need to be established. Spatial data were collected on May 26, July 21, and September 15, 2016, using a combination of a boat-mounted array and discrete water-quality samples analyzed for phytoplankton community composition and chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. Spatial patterns were described using regression-estimated chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. During the May 26, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances were relatively low throughout Zone C and did not exceed KDHE guidance values compared to spatial surveys on July 21 and September 15. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass uplake in Zone C, and decreases in the downlake direction towards Zone B. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations also were more variable uplake than downlake. Based on regression estimates, microcystin concentrations did not exceed KDHE guidance values anywhere in Zone C on May 26. Spatial patterns in microcystin throughout Zone C did not match patterns in regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, likely because the algal community was not dominated by cyanobacteria at most locations in May. During the July 21, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances in Zone C exceeded KDHE guidance values in 50 percent of samples. The algal community in Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria at all locations except two, where cyanobacteria codominated with diatoms. Both locations where cyanobacteria and diatoms codominated were north of the causeway. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass north of the causeway and on the eastern shore of Zone C. On July 21, algal biomass did not always decrease in the downlake direction. There was a decrease just south of the causeway but an increase shortly after with higher concentrations into Zone B. Spatial maps indicated changes in algal distribution at a 0.5-meter depth, with algae moving to the central part of the lake north of the causeway and along the eastern shore south of the causeway. Most regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on July 21 exceeded KDHE guidance values, reflecting the pervasive bloom conditions in Zone C during this period. Spatial patterns in regression-estimated microcystin concentrations throughout Zone C were similar to patterns seen in discrete samples and regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, with higher concentrations north of the causeway and on the east shore of Zone C. During the September 15, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances did not exceed KDHE guidance values. The algal community north of the causeway was dominated by diatoms. The algal community throughout the rest of Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria. Of regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on September 15, 80 percent did not exceed KDHE guidance values. Spatial patterns indicated northward movement of the cyanobacterial bloom consistent with a wind shift noted the previous day. On September 14, winds were generally from the north to northwest, shifting to the south by September 15. There was a northward progression of chlorophyll and microcystin during the spatial surveys. These data, along with the camera data and spatial and wind data from May and July, indicate that wind can be a major driver of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake and likely plays a role in the extent and duration of near-shore accumulations.

Kansas↗
USGS2018

Water-quality conditions with an emphasis on cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds in the Kansas River, Kansas, July 2012 through September 2016

Cyanobacteria cause a multitude of water-quality concerns, including the potential to produce toxins and taste-and-odor compounds that may cause substantial economic and public health concerns, and are of particular interest in lakes, reservoirs, and rivers that are used for drinking-water supply. Extensive cyanobacterial blooms typically do not develop in the Kansas River; however, reservoirs in the lower Kansas River Basin occasionally develop blooms that may affect downstream water quality. During July 2012 through September 2016, continuous and (or) discrete water-quality data were collected at several sites (Wamego, De Soto, and three main reservoir-fed tributaries) on the Kansas River to characterize the sources, frequency and magnitude of occurrence, and causes of cyanobacteria, cyanobacterial toxins, and taste-and-odor compounds and to develop a real-time notification system of changing water-quality conditions that may affect drinking-water treatment. Algal biomass, as estimated by chlorophyll, was consistently higher at the downstream De Soto site than the upstream Wamego site. Higher algal biomass at the De Soto site likely was caused by algal growth during downstream transport without major losses due to grazing by aquatic organisms or other processes. Algal biomass at the Wamego and De Soto sites was negatively correlated with streamflow and total and bioavailable nutrient concentrations. The negative association between algal biomass and nutrients in the Kansas River likely reflects the relatively strong positive association between nutrient concentrations and streamflows. Cyanobacteria were relatively common in the Kansas River but rarely dominated the algal community. Like overall algal biomass, cyanobacterial abundances typically were higher at the De Soto site than the Wamego site. Cyanobacterial abundances generally peaked in late summer or early fall (July through October), with smaller peaks occasionally observed in spring (April through May). Cyanobacteria in the Kansas River rarely exceeded 20,000 cells per milliliter, the abundance at which cyanobacteria may become a concern for drinking-water treatment. Relations between cyanobacterial abundance and streamflow, turbidity, and nutrients in the Kansas River were similar to those between chlorophyll and total phytoplankton abundance, indicating the same processes that influence overall algal biomass and dynamics also are influencing cyanobacteria. The cyanotoxin microcystin was detected in about 27 percent of the samples collected from Kansas River tributary and main-stem sites. Cylindrospermopsin was detected in one sample from the De Soto site. Microcystin occurrence and concentration were similar between the Wamego and De Soto sites. Concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health advisory guidance values for finished drinking water of 0.3 (for bottle-fed infants and pre-school children) and 1.6 micrograms per liter (μg/L; for school-age children and adults) in 6 percent or less of samples collected. These guidance values are for finished drinking water and are not directly applicable to observed environmental concentrations but do provide a benchmark for comparison. Microcystin was detected most often and had the highest concentrations during summer. Though seasonal patterns in microcystin occurrence were generally consistent, seasonal maxima varied by an order of magnitude across years. The taste-and-odor compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol (MIB) were detected in about 78 and 43 percent of samples, respectively, collected across all sites (main stem and tributaries). Geosmin and MIB occurrence and concentration varied considerably between the Wamego and De Soto sites. Geosmin was detected in about 67 percent of Wamego samples and 81 percent of De Soto samples. The human detection threshold of 5 nanograms per liter (ng/L) was exceeded for geosmin in about 11 and 17 percent of the samples collected at the Wamego and De Soto sites, respectively. Geosmin was detected during all months of the year at both sites, and there were no clear seasonal patterns. MIB was detected less frequently in the Kansas River than geosmin and was observed in about 42 percent of Wamego samples and 33 percent of De Soto samples. Concentrations exceeded 5 ng/L in about 7 and 5 percent of samples from the Wamego and De Soto sites, respectively. As observed for geosmin, there were no clear seasonal patterns in MIB occurrence or concentration. There seems to be a connection between microcystin detections in the Kansas River and occurrence of microcystin in upstream reservoirs (and tributary streams). Microcystin concentrations greater than 0.3 μg/L may be likely during the summer when streamflow is less than 3,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) and contributions from Milford Lake exceed about 30 percent of total flow in the Kansas River. Observed microcystin concentrations typically were higher at the De Soto site than the Wamego or tributary sites during 2012 through 2016, indicating cyanobacteria may continue to grow and produce microcystin once introduced to the Kansas River. The spatial and temporal patterns in geosmin and MIB occurrence and concentration were more complex than microcystin. There were no clear connections between geosmin and MIB occurrence in the Kansas River and potential upstream reservoir (or tributary stream) sources. Likewise, there was not a clear relation between algal biomass, cyanobacteria, or actinomycetes bacteria and taste-and-odor events in the Kansas River. Geosmin and MIB were not strongly correlated with any measured environmental variable at either Kansas River site. Continuous water-quality data may be used independently or in combination with regression models to provide information on changing water-quality conditions that may affect drinking-water treatment processes or recreational activities on the Kansas River. For example, logistic regression model outputs and continuous water-quality data may both be indicative of the potential for microcystin events. Logistic regression models that are estimating a high probability of microcystin occurrence at concentrations above 0.1 μg/L can be used as one indicator. Streamflows less than 3,000 ft 3 /s during upstream reservoir releases during periods with low turbidity and increased chlorophyll fluorescence, specific conductance, and pH values may also be indicative of microcystin events. Advanced or near-real-time notification may inform proactive, rather than reactive, management strategies when water-quality conditions are changing rapidly or are likely to cause cyanobacteria-related events.

Kansas↗
USGS2017

Groundwater quality in the Western San Joaquin Valley study unit, 2010: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Water quality in groundwater resources used for public drinking-water supply in the Western San Joaquin Valley (WSJV) was investigated by the USGS in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) as part of its Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project. The WSJV includes two study areas: the Delta–Mendota and Westside subbasins of the San Joaquin Valley groundwater basin. Study objectives for the WSJV study unit included two assessment types: (1) a status assessment yielding quantitative estimates of the current (2010) status of groundwater quality in the groundwater resources used for public drinking water, and (2) an evaluation of natural and anthropogenic factors that could be affecting the groundwater quality. The assessments characterized the quality of untreated groundwater, not the quality of treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water distributors. The status assessment was based on data collected from 43 wells sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey for the GAMA Priority Basin Project (USGS-GAMA) in 2010 and data compiled in the SWRCB Division of Drinking Water (SWRCB-DDW) database for 74 additional public-supply wells sampled for regulatory compliance purposes between 2007 and 2010. To provide context, concentrations of constituents measured in groundwater were compared to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and SWRCB-DDW regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. The status assessment used a spatially weighted, grid-based method to estimate the proportion of the groundwater resources used for public drinking water that has concentrations for particular constituents or class of constituents approaching or above benchmark concentrations. This method provides statistically unbiased results at the study-area scale within the WSJV study unit, and permits comparison of the two study areas to other areas assessed by the GAMA Priority Basin Project statewide. Groundwater resources used for public drinking water in the WSJV study unit are among the most saline and most affected by high concentrations of inorganic constituents of all groundwater resources used for public drinking water that have been assessed by the GAMA Priority Basin Project statewide. Among the 82 GAMA Priority Basin Project study areas statewide, the Delta–Mendota study area ranked above the 90th percentile for aquifer-scale proportions of groundwater resources having concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS), sulfate, chloride, manganese, boron, chromium(VI), selenium, and strontium above benchmarks, and the Westside study area ranked above the 90th percentile for TDS, sulfate, manganese, and boron. In the WSJV study unit as a whole, one or more inorganic constituents with regulatory or non-regulatory, health-based benchmarks were present at concentrations above benchmarks in about 53 percent of the groundwater resources used for public drinking water, and one or more organic constituents with regulatory health-based benchmarks were detected at concentrations above benchmarks in about 3 percent of the resource. Individual constituents present at concentrations greater than health-based benchmarks in greater than 2 percent of groundwater resources used for public drinking water included: boron (51 percent, SWRCB-DDW notification level), chromium(VI) (25 percent, SWRCB-DDW maximum contaminant level (MCL)), arsenic (10 percent, EPA MCL), strontium (5.1 percent, EPA Lifetime health advisory level (HAL)), nitrate (3.9 percent, EPA MCL), molybdenum (3.8 percent, EPA HAL), selenium (2.6 percent, EPA MCL), and benzene (2.6 percent, SWRCB-DDW MCL). In addition, 50 percent of the resource had TDS concentrations greater than non-regulatory, aesthetic-based SWRCB-DDW upper secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL), and 44 percent had manganese concentrations greater than the SWRCB-DDW SMCL. Natural and anthropogenic factors that could affect the groundwater quality were evaluated by using results from statistical testing of associations between constituent concentrations and values of potential explanatory factors, inferences from geochemical and age-dating tracer results, and by considering the water-quality results in the context of the hydrogeologic setting of the WSJV study unit. Natural factors, particularly the lithologies of the source areas for groundwater recharge and of the aquifers, were the dominant factors affecting groundwater quality in most of the WSJV study unit. However, where groundwater resources used for public supply included groundwater recharged in the modern era, mobilization of constituents by recharge of water used for irrigation also affected groundwater quality. Public-supply wells in the Westside study area had a median depth of 305 m and primarily tapped groundwater recharged hundreds to thousands of years ago, whereas public-supply wells in the Delta–Mendota study area had a median depth of 85 m and primarily tapped either groundwater recharged within the last 60 years or groundwater consisting of mixtures of this modern recharge and older recharge. Public-supply wells in the WSJV study unit are screened in the Tulare Formation and zones above and below the Corcoran Clay Member are used. The Tulare Formation primarily consists of alluvial sediments derived from the Coast Ranges to the west, except along the valley trough at the eastern margin of the WSJV study unit where the Tulare Formation consists of fluvial sands derived from the Sierra Nevada to the east. Groundwater from wells screened in the Sierra Nevada sands had manganese-reducing or manganese- and iron-reducing oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions. These redox conditions commonly were associated with elevated arsenic or molybdenum concentrations, and the dominance of arsenic(III) in the dissolved arsenic supports reductive dissolution of iron and manganese oxyhydroxides as the mechanism. In addition, groundwater from many wells screened in Sierra Nevada sands contained low concentrations of nitrite or ammonium, indicating reduction of nitrate by denitrification or dissimilatory processes, respectively. Geology of the Coast Ranges westward of the study unit strongly affects groundwater quality in the WSJV. Elevated concentrations of TDS, sulfate, boron, selenium and strontium in groundwater were primarily associated with aquifer sediments and recharge derived from areas of the Coast Ranges dominated by Cretaceous-to-Miocene age, organic-rich, reduced marine shales, known as the source of selenium in WSJV soils, surface water, and groundwater. Low sulfur-isotopic values (δ34S) of dissolved sulfate indicate that the sulfate was largely derived from oxidation of biogenic pyrite from the shales, and correlations with trace element concentrations, geologic setting, and groundwater geochemical modeling indicated that distributions of sulfate, strontium, and selenium in groundwater were controlled by dissolution of secondary sulfate minerals in soils and sediments. Elevated concentrations of chromium(VI) were primarily associated with aquifer sediments and recharge derived from areas of the Coast Ranges dominated by the Franciscan Complex and ultramafic rocks. The Franciscan Complex also has boron-rich, sodium-chloride dominated hydrothermal fluids that contribute to elevated concentrations of boron and TDS. Groundwater from wells screened in Coast Ranges alluvium was primarily oxic and relatively alkaline (median pH value of 7.55) in the Delta–Mendota study area, and primarily nitrate-reducing or suboxic and alkaline (median pH value of 8.4) in the Westside study area. Many groundwater samples from those wells have elevated concentrations of arsenic(V), molybdenum, selenium, or chromium(VI), consistent with desorption of metal oxyanions from mineral surfaces under those geochemical conditions. High concentrations of benzene were associated with deep wells located in the vicinity of petroleum deposits at the southern end of the Westside study area. Groundwater from these wells had premodern age and anoxic geochemical conditions, and the ratios among concentrations of hydrocarbon constituents were different from ratios found in fuels and combustion products, which is consistent with a geogenic source for the benzene rather than contamination from anthropogenic sources. Water stable-isotope compositions, groundwater recharge temperatures, and groundwater ages were used to infer four types of groundwater: (1) groundwater derived from natural recharge of water from major rivers draining the Sierra Nevada; (2) groundwater primarily derived from natural recharge of water from Coast Ranges runoff; (3) groundwater derived from recharge of pumped groundwater applied to the land surface for irrigation; and (4) groundwater derived from recharge during a period of much cooler paleoclimate. Water previously used for irrigation was found both above and below the Corcoran Clay, supporting earlier inferences that this clay member is no longer a robust confining unit. Recharge of water used for irrigation has direct and indirect effects on groundwater quality. Elevated nitrate concentrations and detections of herbicides and fumigants in the Delta–Mendota study area generally were associated with greater agricultural land use near the well and with water recharged during the last 60 years. However, the extent of the groundwater resource affected by agricultural sources of nitrate was limited by groundwater redox conditions sufficient to reduce nitrate. The detection frequency of perchlorate in Delta–Mendota groundwater was greater than expected for natural conditions. Perchlorate, nitrate, selenium, and strontium concentrations were correlated with one another and were greater in groundwater inferred to be recharge of previously pumped groundwater used for irrigation. The source of the perchlorate, selenium, and strontium appears to be salts deposited in the soils and sediments of the arid WSJV that are dissolved and flushed into groundwater by the increased amount of recharge caused by irrigation. In the Delta–Mendota study area, the groundwater with elevated concentrations of selenium was found deeper in the aquifer system than it was reported by a previous study 25 years earlier, suggesting that this transient front of groundwater with elevated concentrations of constituents derived from dissolution of soil salts by irrigation recharge is moving down through the aquifer system and is now reaching the depth zone used for public drinking water supply.

California↗
USGS2010

Effects of low-impact-development (LID) practices on streamflow, runoff quantity, and runoff quality in the Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts: A summary of field and modeling studies

Low-impact-development (LID) approaches are intended to create, retain, or restore natural hydrologic and water-quality conditions that may be affected by human alterations. Wide-scale implementation of LID techniques may offer the possibility of improving conditions in river basins, such as the Ipswich River Basin in Massachusetts, that have run dry during the summer because of groundwater withdrawals and drought. From 2005 to 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative funding agreement with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, monitored small-scale installations of LID enhancements designed to diminish the effects of storm runoff on the quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater. Funding for the studies also was contributed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Targeted Watersheds Grant Program through a financial assistance agreement with Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. The monitoring studies examined the effects of replacing an impervious parking-lot surface with a porous surface on groundwater quality, installing rain gardens and porous pavement in a neighborhood of 3 acres on the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, and installing a 3,000-ft2 (square-foot) green roof on the quantity and quality of rainfall-generated roof runoff. In addition to these small-scale installations, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Ipswich River Basin model was used to simulate the basin-wide effects on streamflow of several changes: broad-scale implementation of LID techniques, reduced water-supply withdrawals, and water-conservation measures. Water-supply and conservation scenarios for application in model simulations were developed with the assistance of two technical advisory committees that included representatives of State agencies responsible for water resources, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey, water suppliers, and non-governmental organizations. From June 2005 to June 2007, groundwater quality was monitored at the Silver Lake town beach parking lot in Wilmington, Massachusetts, prior to and following the replacement of the conventional, impervious-asphalt surface with a porous surface consisting primarily of porous asphalt and porous pavers designed to enhance rainfall infiltration into the groundwater and to minimize runoff to Silver Lake. Concentrations of phosphorus, nitrogen, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and total petroleum hydrocarbons in groundwater were monitored. Enhancing infiltration of precipitation did not result in discernible increases in concentrations of these potential groundwater contaminants. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased slightly in groundwater profiles following the removal of the impervious asphalt parking-lot surface. In Wilmington, Massachusetts, in a 3-acre neighborhood, stormwater runoff volume and quality were monitored to determine the ability of selected LID enhancements (rain gardens and porous paving stones) to reduce flows and loads of the selected constituents to Silver Lake. Water-quality samples were analyzed for nutrients, metals, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and total-coliform and E. coli bacteria. A decrease in runoff quantity was observed for storms of 0.25 inch or less of precipitation. Water-quality-monitoring results were inconclusive; there were no statistically significant differences in concentrations or loads when the pre- and post-installation-period samples were compared. In a third field study, the characteristics of runoff from a vegetated "green" roof and a conventional, rubber-membrane roof were compared. The two primary factors affecting the green roof’s water-storage capacity were the amount of precipitation and antecedent dry period. Although concentrations of many of the chemicals in roof runoff were higher from the green roof than from the conventional roof, the ability of the green roof to retain water generally resulted in decreased differences between the total amounts (loads) of the chemicals that ran off the roofs. Land-use and water-management changes associated with LID implementation were investigated at multiple spatial scales, using the U.S. Geological Survey’s Ipswich River Basin model, to evaluate the effects of updated water-supply withdrawals for the towns of Reading and Wilmington (representing new baseline conditions for all simulations), potential land-use changes at buildout (potential future development), widespread implementation of retrofitting LID techniques, basin-scale water withdrawal reductions based on water-conservation pilot programs conducted by the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, and land-use change and LID applications at a local scale. The new baseline simulation indicated that reduced water-supply withdrawals for the towns of Reading and Wilmington led to substantially higher medium and low flows in most of the reaches upstream from the South Middleton streamgage in the upper Ipswich River basin. Overall, simulations pointed to the importance of spatial scale in determining the effects of land-use change and LID practices on streamflow. Potential land-use changes at buildout had modest effects on streamflow in most subbasins (percent differences of less than 20 percent) because relatively little land in the basin was available for development. Results of the simulations conducted to evaluate widespread effective-impervious-area reductions upstream from the South Middleton streamgage indicated that the percentages of urban land use and associated effective impervious area were too small for even a 50-percent reduction of effective impervious area to appreciably affect streamflow in most subbasins. In contrast, the results of the hypothetical local-scale simulations indicated that for smaller streams, with high percentages of urban land use and associated effective impervious area, land-use change, development patterns, and LID practices may have substantial effects on streamflow. Modeling studies concurred with the results of fieldwork in the assessment that LID enhancements would likely have the greatest effect on decreasing stormwater runoff when broadly applied to highly impervious urban areas.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2019

Biogeochemical and physical processes controlling mercury methylation and bioaccumulation in Lake Powell, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Utah and Arizona, 2014 and 2015

Mercury monitoring results from about 300 Morone saxatilis (striped bass) muscle tissue samples collected by the State of Utah from Lake Powell resulted in a Utah/Arizona fish consumption advisory issued in 2012 for approximately the lower 100 kilometers of the reservoir. Chemical, physical, and biological data were collected during two synoptic sampling cruises on Lake Powell during May/June 2014 and August 2015 to test three hypotheses associated with a conceptual model developed to explain the observed geographic concentration gradient of Hg in fish tissue samples. This model proposes that in the transition from a primarily riverine system to a reservoir, there is a change in the concentration and composition of water-column particulate material, increasing in the proportion of organic content moving downstream, as the larger size fractions of the inorganic particulate load are deposited in the upper reservoir. This change alleviates light limitation of phytoplankton production and leads to a higher proportion of autochthonous primary production in the downstream direction. This, in turn, drives increased microbial methylmercury (MeHg) production in the benthos and potentially the water column, in the downstream direction, and results in the observed elevated fish Hg levels in the lower part of the reservoir. The model also proposes that there are differences between the main stem of Lake Powell and side canyons, embayments, or secondary rivers entering the reservoir, in terms of Hg cycling dynamics and bioaccumulations, driven mainly by differences in hydrology. Finally, seasonal differences in Hg dynamics within the reservoir are proposed, based on seasonal dynamics associated with primary production and the physical process of seasonal stratification. A total of three statistically testable hypotheses were proposed and postulated that measurable differences in key Hg and non-Hg metrics exist between: (1) the upper and lower reservoir; (2) main stem and river arm/side canyon/embayment sites; and (3) early-season (May/June 2014, less stratified) and late-season (August 2015, stratified) conditions. Statistically modeled least square means in combination with the graphical analysis of Hg and non-Hg parameters were used to examine the data collected during the study and test these hypotheses. Data collected during the study are included in a U.S. Geological Survey data release and are available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/F74X560J . In general, water-column, plankton, and surface sediment samples collected during the synoptic sampling cruises are supportive of the three hypotheses associated with the conceptual model. In support of hypothesis 1 (comparing upper and lower reservoir sites), the least square mean for turbidity was higher in the upper reservoir. In contrast, surface water particulate organic carbon (as a percentage of total particulate mass), particulate MeHg (by mass [in nanograms per gram] and as a percentage of total mercury [THg]), and particulate-dissolved partitioning coefficients for THg and MeHg were higher in the lower reservoir. Plankton THg concentrations also were significantly (probability [ p ] less than (<) 0.05) higher in the lower reservoir. Surface sediment metrics in support of hypothesis 1 include higher MeHg production potential rates in the lower reservoir. In contrast, there were no statistically significant differences between the upper and lower reservoir for surface sediment percent of MeHg and MeHg concentration, percent MeHg, or methylation rate constants. These spatial trends associated with hypothesis 1 indicate a pathway for enhanced Hg bioavailability in the lower reservoir. Hypothesis 2, which tested for differences between main stem and river arm/side canyon/embayment sites, was supported by a number of water-column parameters, including particulate THg and MeHg concentrations by mass (in nanograms per gram) and percent particulate MeHg being significantly ( p <0.05) higher in the river arms, side canyons, and embayments relative to the main stem channel. Plankton MeHg concentrations (by mass [in nanograms per gram] and volume [in nanograms per liter] and as a percentage of THg) were elevated in river arm/side canyon/embayment sites compared to main stem sites, indicating an enhanced potential for MeHg bioaccumulation at the base of the pelagic food web in river arms, side canyons, and embayments. In contrast, few of the sediment metrics differed between main stem and river arm/side canyon/embayment sampling sites; however, the potential for MeHg degradation in surface sediment was significantly higher in the main stem. The data indicate that river arm/side canyon/embayment sites may experience enhanced Hg bioaccumulation, compared to the main stem, because of higher MeHg levels at the base of the pelagic food web. This conclusion is supported by the elevated Hg detected in striped bass muscle tissue samples collected in the San Juan Arm during this study (2014). Fish collected from the lower reservoir exhibited a distinct Hg isotopic signature that was enriched in delta (δ) 202 Hg and capital delta (Δ) 199 Hg relative to fish samples collected from either Good Hope Bay or the San Juan Arm. Hypothesis 3 tested for differences between early (May/June) high-flow and late (August) low-flow seasons. This test was supported by a range of non-Hg metrics (nitrate, phosphate, chlorophyll a , dissolved oxygen, fluorescent dissolved organic matter, temperature, and pH) that reflect the increase in chlorophyll a , decrease in nutrients, and buildup of stratified conditions in the transition from early- to late-season sampling periods. Significant seasonal differences also were noted for multiple Hg metrics, including (a) water-column filtered and particulate (by mass) MeHg and THg concentrations; (b) plankton MeHg and THg concentration (by mass); and (c) sediment percent MeHg, Hg(II)-methylation rate constant, and microbial ribosomal ribonucleic acid, small subunit 16 (16S rRNA) abundance, all of which were higher during the late-season synoptic sampling. Overall, the surface sediment metrics are consistent with a seasonal shift from the early-season synoptic results, when the availability of Hg(II) exerts a primary control on MeHg production, to the late-season synoptic sampling, when microbial activity is a dominant driver of MeHg production.

Arizona, Utah↗
USGS2021

Geologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of the White River Formation, Lance Formation, and Fox Hills Sandstone, northern greater Denver Basin, southeastern Laramie County, Wyoming

In cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer’s Office, the U.S. Geological Survey studied the geologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of Cenozoic and Upper Cretaceous strata at a location in southeastern Laramie County within the Wyoming part of the Cheyenne Basin, the northern subbasin of the greater Denver Basin. The study aimed to improve understanding of the aquifers/aquifer systems in these strata, motivated in part by declining groundwater levels and interest in exploring future groundwater supplies. Based on detailed geologic characterization using information obtained by drilling and coring a 960-foot-(ft) deep exploratory borehole, and comparisons with previously published descriptions, identified Cenozoic lithostratigraphic units included 40 ft of Quaternary older alluvial fan deposits consisting of an unconsolidated mixture of sand and gravel with lesser quantities of silt and clay in varying proportions and the underlying 407.3-ft-thick White River Formation of late Eocene-Oligocene age consisting largely of mudrocks with sparse thin beds of sandstone, muddy gravel, and conglomeratic mudrocks. Identified Upper Cretaceous lithostratigraphic units included the 351.6-ft-thick Lance Formation, consisting of terrestrial sedimentary rocks including mudrocks (muddy shale and silty and sandy shale, siltstone, claystone, and mudstone) interbedded with much smaller quantities of very fine- to medium-grained muddy and silty sandstone and coal; the 79.6-ft-thick Fox Hills Sandstone, consisting of a transitional marine sequence of muddy or silty sandstone present in five individual beds; and 86.7 ft of the upper transition member of the Pierre Shale, consisting largely of marine sedimentary rocks such as muddy shale. Beds of the upper and lower Fox Hills Sandstone were separated by tongues of the Lance Formation and upper transition member of the Pierre Shale, respectively. The White River hydrogeologic unit, consisting of the entire White River Formation or Group at the study site, did not contain any substantial secondary permeability features in the mudrocks that composed almost all the unit. A monitoring well (BR–1) was completed in the White River aquifer with the well screen open to the only coarse-grained unit (muddy sandstone) that had sufficient thickness and permeability to be considered as an aquifer. Sampling of the well for a broad suite of constituents indicated groundwater generally was of excellent quality except dissolved arsenic was detected at a concentration greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Maximum Contaminant Level, and dissolved sodium was measured at a concentration greater than several EPA Drinking Water Advisory Levels (DWAs) for the constituent. Well development, well purging for groundwater sampling, and calculated aquifer properties indicated the sandstone aquifer screened by monitoring well BR–1 was not very productive. Analysis of the well water-level responses in BR–1 to atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated the responses were consistent with a confined-aquifer response with wellbore-storage effects. Hydraulic properties estimated based on these responses yielded values of hydraulic conductivity ( K , 0.057 foot per day [ft/d]), specific storage ( Ss , 1.6×10 −6 per foot [ft −1 ]) and porosity ( n , 0.43). Water levels filtered to remove the effects of atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated an upward trend (+1.13 foot per year [ft/yr]) during the period analyzed, September 5, 2014, to September 30, 2017. Lithologic characteristics of the Lance hydrogeologic unit, consisting of the entire Lance Formation at the study site, indicated a potential aquifer in a “sandy” interval in the upper part of the unit. Most of the Lance hydrogeologic unit below the “sandy” interval consisted of various low-permeability lithologies unlikely to yield substantial quantities of water. This lower part of the hydrogeologic unit likely functions as a confining unit separating the underlying Lance-Fox Hills aquifer. A geologic cross section constructed for this study indicated fine-grained sediments composed most of the Lance Formation/hydrogeologic unit not only at the study location, but also throughout southern Laramie County along the line of section and throughout the Wyoming and Colorado parts of the Cheyenne Basin. A monitoring well (LN–1) completed in a sandstone bed in the “sandy” interval of the Lance hydrogeologic unit produced a mean of about 23 gallons per minute (gal/min) during well development, indicating sandstone beds can form moderately productive confined subaquifers in this part of the hydrogeologic unit. Analysis of the well water-level responses in well LN–1 to atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated the responses were consistent with a confined-aquifer response. Hydraulic properties estimated based on these responses yielded values for a lower bounding K of 0.60 ft/d, Ss of 1.6×10 −6 ft −1 , and n of 0.38. Water levels filtered to remove the effects of atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated a downward trend (−0.86 ft/yr) during the period analyzed (November 8, 2014, to September 30, 2017). Analyses for a broad suite of constituents in samples from well LN–1 indicated groundwater quality generally was excellent, although dissolved sodium was measured at a concentration greater than two EPA DWA levels for the constituent. Because of the absence of any overlying or intertonguing sandstone beds belonging to the lower/basal part of the Lance Formation, the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer at the study site consisted only of the five sandstone beds of the Fox Hills Sandstone. The cross section constructed for this study illustrated how the Fox Hills Sandstone, and thus, most of the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer, consists of a series of sandstone bodies that overlap (shingle) upward to the east across southern Laramie County. These bodies collectively form a fairly continuous body of sandstone, thus potentially forming an areally extensive aquifer across southern Laramie County, and by extension, throughout most of the formation’s extent in the Wyoming part of the Cheyenne Basin, as is the case in the Colorado part of the basin. A monitoring well (FH–1) completed in part of the thickest sandstone bed of the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer was moderately to highly productive and easily produced 25 to 30 gal/min after development. Substantially larger water production rates likely could be obtained by penetrating the full thickness of this bed and by completing a well open to the other overlying and underlying sandstone beds of the aquifer. Analysis of the water-level responses in well FH–1 to atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated the responses were consistent with a confined-aquifer response. Hydraulic properties computed based on these responses yielded values for a lower bounding estimate for K of 0.26 ft/d, for Ss of 1.0×10 −6 ft −1 , and for n of 0.41. Water levels filtered to remove the effects of atmospheric loading and Earth tides indicated a downward trend (−1.74 ft/yr) during the period analyzed, December 19, 2014, to September 30, 2017. Sampling of monitoring well FH–1 and two production wells completed in the Fox Hills Sandstone in other parts of Laramie County indicated groundwater quality generally is excellent, although pH exceeded a recommended EPA aesthetic drinking-water standard (Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level) in two of three sampled wells, total dissolved solids concentrations exceeded the Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level in one of the two sampled production wells, and dissolved sodium was measured in all three sampled wells at a concentration greater than two EPA DWA levels for the constituent. The Wyoming Class II agricultural (irrigation) sodium adsorption ratio standard of 8 was exceeded in all three sampled wells, indicating these waters are not suitable for irrigation use. Computed vertical hydraulic gradients indicated a strong potential for downward flow throughout the groundwater system at the study site, including from the low-yielding aquifer in the upper White River Formation/hydrogeologic unit (monitoring well BR–1) to the sandstone subaquifer in the Lance Formation/hydrogeologic unit (monitoring well LN–1), and from the Lance subaquifer (monitoring well LN–1) to the sandstone bed/aquifer that composes much of the Lance-Fox Hills aquifer thickness at the study site (monitoring well FH–1). However, large hydraulic-head differences between wells indicated high resistance to vertical flow attributable to the low vertical hydraulic conductivity of intervening strata, which consisted almost entirely of low-permeability mudrocks. The confined nature of the sandstone aquifers monitored by the various wells coupled with dissimilarities between groundwater-level fluctuations and trends in groundwater levels indicated downward flow through the intervening strata (primarily mudrocks in the various lithostratigraphic/hydrogeologic units) between the examined sets of wells likely was small.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B17B-GB and EMA-MGB RPD-boxplot results showed that the median RPDs across all streamgaging stations for the 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs, computed using station skew, were approximately zero. As the AEP flow estimates decreased (that is, from 10 to 0.2 percent AEP) the variability in the RPDs increased, indicating that the AEP flow estimate was greater for EMA-MGB when compared to B17B-GB. There was only one RPD greater than 100 percent for the 10- and 1-percent AEP estimates, whereas 19 RPDs exceeded 100 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. At streamgaging stations with low-outlier data, historical peak-flow data, or both, RPDs ranged from −84 to 262 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP flow estimate. When streamgaging stations were separated by the presence of historical peak-flow data (that is, no low outliers or censored peaks) or by low outlier peak-flow data (no historical data), the results showed that RPD variability was greatest for the 0.2-AEP flow estimates, indicating that the treatment of historical and (or) low-outlier data was different between methods and that method differences were most influential when estimating the less probable AEP flows (1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent). When regional skew information was weighted with the station skew, B17B-GB estimates were generally higher than the EMA-MGB estimates for any given AEP. This was related to the different regional skews and mean square error used in the weighting procedure for each flood frequency analysis. The B17B-GB weighted skew analysis used a more positive regional skew determined in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433 (Thomas and others, 1997), while the EMA-MGB analysis used a more negative regional skew with a lower mean square error determined from a Bayesian generalized least squares analysis. Regional groupings of streamgaging stations reflected differences in physiographic and climatic characteristics. Potentially influential low flows (PILFs) were more prevalent in arid regions of the State, and generally AEP flows were larger with EMA-MGB than with B17B-GB for gaging stations with PILFs. In most cases EMA-MGB curves would fit the largest floods more accurately than B17B-GB. In areas of the State with more baseflow, such as along the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains, streamgaging stations generally had fewer PILFs and more positive skews, causing estimated AEP flows to be larger with B17B-GB than with EMA-MGB. The effect of including regional skew was similar for all regions, and the observed pattern was increasingly greater B17B-GB flows (more negative RPDs) with each decreasing AEP quantile. A variation on a goodness-of-fit test statistic was used to describe each method’s ability to fit the largest floods. The mean absolute percent difference between the measured peak flows and the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3)-estimated flows, for each method, was averaged over the 90th, 75th, and 50th percentiles of peak-flow data at each site. In most percentile subsets, EMA-MGB on average had smaller differences (1 to 3 percent) between the observed and fitted value, suggesting that the EMA-MGB-LP3 distribution is fitting the observed peak-flow data more precisely than B17B-GB. The smallest EMA-MGB percent differences occurred for the greatest 10 percent (90th percentile) of the peak-flow data. When stations were analyzed by USGS NWIS peak flow qualification code groups, the stations with historical peak flows and no low outliers had average percent differences as high as 11 percent greater for B17B-GB, indicating that EMA-MGB utilized the historical information to fit the largest observed floods more accurately. A resampling procedure was used in which 1,000 random subsamples were drawn, each comprising one-half of the observed data. An LP3 distribution was fit to each subsample using B17B-GB and EMA-MGB methods, and the predicted 1-percent AEP flows were compared to those generated from distributions fit to the entire dataset. With station skew, the two methods were similar in the median percent difference, but with weighted skew EMA-MGB estimates were generally better. At two gages where B17B-GB appeared to perform better, a large number of peak flows were deemed to be PILFs by the MGB test, although they did not appear to depart significantly from the trend of the data (step or dogleg appearance). At two gages where EMA-MGB performed better, the MGB identified several PILFs that were affecting the fitted distribution of the B17B-GB method. Monte Carlo simulations were run for the LP3 distribution using different skews and with different assumptions about the expected number of historical peaks. The primary benefit of running Monte Carlo simulations is that the underlying distribution statistics are known, meaning that the true 1-percent AEP is known. The results showed that EMA-MGB performed as well or better in situations where the LP3 distribution had a zero or positive skew and historical information. When the skew for the LP3 distribution was negative, EMA-MGB performed significantly better than B17B-GB and EMA-MGB estimates were less biased by more closely estimating the true 1-percent AEP for 1, 2, and 10 historical flood scenarios.

Arizona↗