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Match or mismatch: The influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch , however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within theYOYage cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology . This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Concerns regarding a call for pluralism of information theory and hypothesis testing

1. Stephens et al. (2005) argue for 'pluralism' in statistical analysis, combining null hypothesis testing and information-theoretic (I-T) methods. We show that I-T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example. 2. I-T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believe multimodel inference is the future of data analysis, which cannot be achieved with null hypothesis-testing approaches. 3. We argue for a stronger emphasis on critical thinking in science in general and less reliance on exploratory data analysis and data dredging. Deriving alternative hypotheses is central to science; deriving a single interesting science hypothesis and then comparing it to a default null hypothesis (e.g. 'no difference') is not an efficient strategy for gaining knowledge. We think this single-hypothesis strategy has been relied upon too often in the past. 4. We clarify misconceptions presented by Stephens et al. (2005) . 5. We think inference should be made about models, directly linked to scientific hypotheses, and their parameters conditioned on data, Prob(Hj| data). I-T methods provide a basis for this inference. Null hypothesis testing merely provides a probability statement about the data conditioned on a null model, Prob(data |H0). 6. Synthesis and applications . I-T methods provide a more informative approach to inference. I-T methods provide a direct measure of evidence for or against hypotheses and a means to consider simultaneously multiple hypotheses as a basis for rigorous inference. Progress in our science can be accelerated if modern methods can be used intelligently; this includes various I-T and Bayesian methods.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Evaluation of trap capture in a geographically closed population of brown treesnakes on Guam

1. Open population mark-recapture analysis of unbounded populations accommodates some types of closure violations (e.g. emigration, immigration). In contrast, closed population analysis of such populations readily allows estimation of capture heterogeneity and behavioural response, but requires crucial assumptions about closure (e.g. no permanent emigration) that are suspect and rarely tested empirically. 2. In 2003, we erected a double-sided barrier to prevent movement of snakes in or out of a 5-ha semi-forested study site in northern Guam. This geographically closed population of >100 snakes was monitored using a series of transects for visual searches and a 13 ?? 13 trapping array, with the aim of marking all snakes within the site. Forty-five marked snakes were also supplemented into the resident population to quantify the efficacy of our sampling methods. We used the program mark to analyse trap captures (101 occasions), referenced to census data from visual surveys, and quantified heterogeneity, behavioural response, and size bias in trappability. Analytical inclusion of untrapped individuals greatly improved precision in the estimation of some covariate effects. 3. A novel discovery was that trap captures for individual snakes consisted of asynchronous bouts of high capture probability lasting about 7 days (ephemeral behavioural effect). There was modest behavioural response (trap happiness) and significant latent (unexplained) heterogeneity, with small influences on capture success of date, gender, residency status (translocated or not), and body condition. 4. Trapping was shown to be an effective tool for eradicating large brown treesnakes Boiga irregularis (>900 mm snout-vent length, SVL). 5. Synthesis and applications. Mark-recapture modelling is commonly used by ecological managers to estimate populations. However, existing models involve making assumptions about either closure violations or response to capture. Physical closure of our population on a landscape scale allowed us to determine the relative importance of covariates influencing capture probability (body size, trappability periods, and latent heterogeneity). This information was used to develop models in which different segments of the population could be assigned different probabilities of capture, and suggests that modelling of open populations should incorporate easily measured, but potentially overlooked, parameters such as body size or condition. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Feedbacks between inundation, root production, and shoot growth in a rapidly submerging brackish marsh

1. Ecogeomorphic feedbacks between mineral sediment deposition and above-ground plant growth are thought to have dominated the evolution of many coastal ecosystems and landforms. However, land-use-related reductions in sediment delivery rates to estuaries world-wide suggest that these above-ground feedbacks may not apply in some of the world's most vulnerable coastal landscapes. 2. To understand the relationships between sea level rise and marsh survival, we measured root and shoot growth over experimentally manipulated elevations in a rapidly submerging, sediment deficient marsh. 3. Root growth was highest at a distinct optimum elevation in both Schoenoplectus americanus and Spartina patens . S. americanus shoot growth was highest at an optimum elevation, but S. patens shoot growth increased with elevation throughout the intertidal zone. 4. For marsh elevations that are higher than optimum (expected at low sea level rise rates), we propose that an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise will lead to enhanced root growth, organic accretion and wetland stability. For suboptimum marsh elevations (expected at rapid sea level rise rates and/or low sediment supply), increases in the water level will lead to reduced root growth and a decrease in the rate of elevation gain. 5. More than 80% of the marshland in our study area has an elevation below the optimum for root growth, suggesting that this previously unknown feedback could explain observations of rapid marsh deterioration in the region. 6. Synthesis . Below-ground responses of marshes to sea level rise are more broadly applicable than above-ground feedbacks because they are consistent among different species and do not depend on the availability of mineral sediment.

Journal of Ecology

Effects of temperature on disease progression and swimming stamina in Ichthyophonus‐infected rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum)

Rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss , were infected with Ichthyophonus sp. and held at 10°C, 15°C and 20°C for 28 days to monitor mortality and disease progression. Infected fish demonstrated more rapid onset of disease, higher parasite load, more severe host tissue reaction and reduced mean‐day‐to‐death at higher temperature. In a second experiment, Ichthyophonus ‐infected fish were reared at 15°C for 16 weeks then subjected to forced swimming at 10°C, 15°C and 20°C. Stamina improved significantly with increased temperature in uninfected fish; however, this was not observed for infected fish. The difference in performance between infected and uninfected fish became significant at 15°C ( P =0.02) and highly significant at 20°C ( P = 0.005). These results have implications for changes in the ecology of fish diseases in the face of global warming and demonstrate the effects of higher temperature on the progression and severity of ichthyophoniasis as well as on swimming stamina, a critical fitness trait of salmonids. This study helps explain field observations showing the recent emergence of clinical ichthyophoniasis in Yukon River Chinook salmon later in their spawning migration when water temperatures were high, as well as the apparent failure of a substantial percentage of infected fish to successfully reach their natal spawning areas.

Journal of Fish Diseases

Factors controlling the early stages of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia epizootics: Low exposure levels, virus amplification and fish-to-fish transmission

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus, Genogroup IVa (VHSV), was highly infectious to Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii (Valenciennes), even at exposure doses occurring below the threshold of sensitivity for a standard viral plaque assay; however, further progression of the disease to a population‐level epizootic required viral amplification and effective fish‐to‐fish transmission. Among groups of herring injected with VHSV, the prevalence of infection was dose‐dependent, ranging from 100%, 75% and 38% after exposure to 19, 0.7 and 0.07 plaque‐forming units (PFU)/fish, respectively. Among Pacific herring exposed to waterborne VHSV (140 PFU mL −1 ), the prevalence of infection, geometric mean viral tissue titre and cumulative mortality were greater among cohabitated herring than among cohorts that were held in individual aquaria, where fish‐to‐fish transmission was prevented. Fish‐to‐fish transmission among cohabitated herring probably occurred via exposure to shed virus which peaked at 680 PFU mL −1 ; shed virus was not detected in the tank water from any isolated individuals. The results provide insights into mechanisms that initiate epizootic cascades in populations of wild herring and have implications for the design of VHSV surveys in wild fish populations.

Journal of Fish Diseases

Molecular approaches to fish vaccines

For more than 50 years, researchers have tested a variety of killed, attenuated, and subunit preparations for control offish diseases. The earliest fish vaccines used killed preparations containing whole bacteria, viruses, or parasites and today, several bacterins have become commercially successful with more expected as improved delivery systems and adjuvants are realized. Live, attenuated vaccines have been developed by serial passage of a pathogen in culture or by using naturally occurring mutants and cross-reacting strains. These generally offer excellent protection and are cost-effective, but concerns about residual virulence or their effects on other aquatic species make them difficult candidates for licensing. In recent years, the tools of molecular biology have been applied to construction of a variety of recombinant, engineered, or subunit vaccines for fish. Among the approaches to be discussed are: attenuated strains of viruses and bacteria created by deletion of specific genes associated with virulence, in vitro synthesis of protective antigens from genes cloned into E. coli or baculovirus expression systems, chemical synthesis of peptides that represent protective epitopes, and direct immunization with DNA coding for protective antigens. Preparations representing each of these approaches have been tested in laboratory or field trials with various results and such vaccines promise to be safe and relatively inexpensive if they are able to provide protection when delivered by immersion. A significant advantage of genetically engineered vaccines is the ability to construct multivalent preparations that can protect fish against several pathogens or different strains of the same pathogen. While many of these novel vaccine strategies have been effective at stimulating specific immunity in the laboratory, more work is needed to develop better delivery systems and to overcome potential regulatory concerns.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology

Defining winter trophic habitat of juvenile Gulf Sturgeon in the Suwannee and Apalachicola rivermouth estuaries, acoustic telemetry investigations

Three automated listening post-telemetry studies were undertaken in the Suwannee and Apalachicola estuaries to gain knowledge of habitats use by juvenile Gulf Sturgeons ( Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi ) on winter feeding grounds. A simple and reliable method for external attachment of small acoustic tags to the dorsal fin base was developed using shrink-tubing. Suspending receivers on masts below anchored buoys improved reception and facilitated downloading; a detection range of 500–2500 m was realized. In the Apalachicola estuary, juvenile GS stayed in shallow water (< 2 m) within the estuarine transition zone all winter in the vicinity of the Apalachicola River mouth. Juvenile GS high-use areas did not coincide with high density benthic macrofauna areas from the most recent (1999) benthos survey. In the Suwannee estuary, juveniles ranged widely and individually throughout oligohaline to mesohaline subareas of the estuary, preferentially using mesohaline subareas seaward of Suwannee Reef (52% of acoustic detections). The river mouth subarea was important only in early and late winter, during the times of adult Gulf Sturgeon migrations (41% of detections). Preferred winter feeding subareas coincided spatially with known areas of dense macrofaunal benthos concentrations. Following a dramatic drop in air and water temperatures, juvenile GS left the river mouth and estuary, subsequently being detected 8 km offshore in polyhaline open Gulf of Mexico waters, before returning to the estuary. Cold-event offshore excursions demonstrate that they can tolerate full-salinity polyhaline waters in the open Gulf of Mexico, for at least several days at a time. For juvenile sturgeons, the stress and metabolic cost of enduring high salinity (Jarvis et al., 2001; McKenzie et al., 2001; Singer and Ballantyne, 2002) for short periods in deep offshore waters seems adaptively advantageous relative to the risk of cold-event mortality in shallow inshore waters of lower salinity. Thus, while juveniles can tolerate high salinities for days to weeks to escape cold events, they appear to make only infrequent use of open polyhaline waters. Throughout the winter foraging period, juvenile GS stayed primarily within the core area of Suwannee River mouth influence, extending about 12 km north and south of the river mouth, and somewhat seaward of Suwannee Reef (< 5 km offshore). None were detected departing the core area past either of the northern or southern acoustic gates, located 66 and 52 km distant from the river mouth, respectively.

Florida

Lake sturgeon response to a spawning reef constructed in the Detroit river

Prior to the First World War, the bi-national Detroit River provided vast areas of functional fish spawning and nursery habitat. However, ongoing conflicting human uses of these waters for activities such as waste disposal, water withdrawals, shoreline development, shipping, recreation, and fishing have altered many of the chemical, physical, and biological processes of the Detroit River. Of particular interest and concern to resource managers and stakeholders is the significant loss and impairment of fish spawning and nursery habitat that led to the decline in abundance of most fish species using this ecosystem. Lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) populations for example, were nearly extirpated by the middle of the 20th century, leaving only a small fraction of their former population. Fisheries managers recognized that the loss of suitable fish spawning habitat is a limiting factor in lake sturgeon population rehabilitation in the Detroit River. In efforts to remediate this beneficial water use impairment, a reef consisting of a mixture of natural rock and limestone was constructed at the upstream end of Fighting Island in 2008. This paper focuses on the response by lake sturgeon to the different replicates of suitable natural materials used to construct the fish spawning habitat at Fighting Island in the Detroit River. Pre-construction fisheries assessment during 2006–2008 showed that along with the presence of adult lake sturgeon, spawning conditions were favorable. However, no eggs were found in assessments conducted prior to reef construction. The 3300 m 2 Fighting Island reef was placed at the upstream end of the island in October of 2008. The construction design included 12 spawning beds of three replicates each consisting of either round rock, small or large (shot-rock) diameter limestone or a mixture thereof. An observed response by spawning lake sturgeon occurred the following year when spawning-ready adults (ripe), viable eggs, and larvae were collected during May and June 2009. Additional eggs and spawning-ready adults were found in 2010 (no larval sampling occurred in 2010) as well as collection of three age-0 juvenile lake sturgeon in bottom trawls fished downstream of the reef during July 2010. Spawning lake sturgeon showed no repeatable preference for any of the four particular substrate types but showed a high degree of preference for the island side of the channel, where faster water current velocities occurred. In 2009, overall lake sturgeon egg densities across all replicates averaged 102 m -2 and seven larvae were found in night drift-net samples. In 2010, average lake sturgeon egg density was 12 m -2 and three age-0 lake sturgeon averaging 120 mm TL were collected in bottom trawls in deepwater (∼8 m depth) downstream from the constructed reef. These results demonstrated successful reproduction by lake sturgeon on a man-made reef and suggested that additions and improvements to fish spawning habitat could enhance reproduction and early life history survival of lake sturgeon in the Detroit River.

Michigan;Ontario

Isotope hydrology dynamics of riverine wetlands in the Kankakee Watershed, Indiana

Wetland restoration activities may disturb shallow ground-water flow dynamics. There may be unintentional sources of water flowing into a constructed wetland that could compromise the long-term viability of a wetland function. Measurement of naturally-occurring isotopes in the hydrosphere can provide an indication of provenance, flow paths or components, and residence times or ages of wetland ground-water flow systems. Hydraulic head measurements may not provide sufficient detail of shallow flow disturbances and can be complemented by analyzing isotopes in waters flowing through the wetland. Two north-central Indiana wetlands in the Kankakee watershed are being studied to determine the adequacy of wetland restoration activities. The native LaSalle wetland and the restored Hog Marsh wetland have contrasting ground-water flow regimes. The conservative water isotopes 18 O, 2 H, and 3 H, and selected solute isotopes 13 C, 14 C, 15 N, 34 S, 87 Sr, and 206–208Pb, demonstrate the complexity of ground-water flow in Hog Marsh compared to the established flow regime at the LaSalle wetland.

Indiana

Evapotranspiration from a bulrush-dominated wetland in the Klamath Basin, Oregon

Growing-season evapotranspiration and surface energy and water balances were investigated for an extensive, bulrush-dominated wetland in the Upper Klamath National Wildlife Refuge of south-central Oregon, a semi-arid region with competing demands for scarce water resources. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat were measured by eddy covariance for 1.2 to 1.9 days during each of four site visits during late-May to mid-October 1997. Mean daytime latent heat flux and the Bowen ratio ranged from 148 to 178 W m −2 and from 0.38 to 0.51, respectively, during late May, mid-July, and late August site visits. By mid-October, when the plant canopy had senesced, daytime latent heat flux and the Bowen ratio averaged 46 W m −2 and 2.8, respectively. An hourly Penman-Monteith (PM) model that was fitted to the surface-flux data provided values for the surface resistance to water-vapor diffusion that ranged from 78 s m −1 during late August to 206 s m −1 during mid-October. Similarly, a Priestley-Taylor (PT) model provided values for the PT multiplier (a) that ranged from 0.96 during late August to 0.37 during mid-October. The PM and PT models predicted evapotranspiration totals of 560 and 480 mm, respectively, for May 28 to October 12, 1997.

Oregon

Influences of watershed, riparian-corridor, and reach-scale characteristics on aquatic biota in agricultural watersheds

Multivariate analyses and correlations revealed strong relations between watershed and riparian-corridor land cover, and reach-scale habitat versus fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages in 38 warmwater streams in eastern Wisconsin. Watersheds were dominated by agricultural use, and ranged in size from 9 to 71 km 2 Watershed land cover was summarized from satellite-derived data for the area outside a 30-m buffer. Riparian land cover was interpreted from digital orthophotos within 10-, 10-to 20-, and 20-to 30-m buffers. Reach-scale habitat, fish, and macroinvertebrates were collected in 1998 and biotic indices calculated. Correlations between land cover, habitat, and stream-quality indicators revealed significant relations at the watershed, riparian-corridor, and reach scales. At the watershed scale, fish diversity, intolerant fish and EPT species increased, and Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI) decreased as percent forest increased. At the riparian-corridor scale, EPT species decreased and HBI increased as riparian vegetation became more fragmented. For the reach, EPT species decreased with embeddedness. Multivariate analyses further indicated that riparian (percent agriculture, grassland, urban and forest, and fragmentation of vegetation), watershed (percent forest) and reach-scale characteristics (embeddedness) were the most important variables influencing fish (IBI, density, diversity, number, and percent tolerant and insectivorous species) and macroinvertebrate (HBI and EPT) communities.

Wisconsin

Evapotranspiration and canopy resistance at an undeveloped prairie in a humid subtropical climate

Reliable estimates of evapotranspiration from areas of wildland vegetation are needed for many types of water-resource investigations. However, little is known about surface fluxes from many areally important vegetation types, and relatively few comparisons have been made to examine how well evapotranspiration models can predict evapotranspiration for soil-, climate-, or vegetation-types that differ from those under which the models have been calibrated. In this investigation at a prairie site in west-central Florida, latent heat flux (λ E ) computed from the energy balance and alternatively by eddy covariance during a 15-month period differed by 4 percent and 7 percent on hourly and daily time scales, respectively. Annual evapotranspiration computed from the energy balance and by eddy covariance were 978 and 944 mm, respectively. An hourly Penman-Monteith (PM) evapotranspiration model with stomatal control predicated on water-vapor-pressure deficit at canopy level, incoming solar radiation intensity, and soil water deficit was developed and calibrated using surface fluxes from eddy covariance. Model-predicted λ E agreed closely with λ E computed from the energy balance except when moisture from dew or precipitation covered vegetation surfaces. Finally, an hourly PM model developed for an Amazonian pasture predicted λ E for the Florida prairie with unexpected reliability. Additional comparisons of PM-type models that have been developed for differing types of short vegetation could aid in assessing interchangeability of such models.

Florida

A biological assessment of streams in the eastern United States using a predictive model for macroinvertebrate assemblages

A predictive model (RIVPACS-type) for benthic macroinvertebrates was constructed to assess the biological condition of 1,087 streams sampled throughout the eastern United States from 1993-2003 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. A subset of 338 sites was designated as reference quality, 28 of which were withheld from model calibration and used to independently evaluate model precision and accuracy. The ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) taxa richness was used as a continuous measure of biological condition, and sites with O/E values <0.8 were classified as biologically degraded. Spatiotemporal variability of O/E values was evaluated with repeated annual and within-site samples at reference sites. Values of O/E were regressed on a measure of urbanization in three regions and compared among streams in different land-use settings. The model accurately predicted the expected taxa at validation sites with high precision (SD = 0.11). Within-site spatial variability in O/E values was much larger than annual and among-site variation at reference sites and was likely caused by environmental differences among sampled reaches. Values of O/E were significantly correlated with basin road density in the Boston, Massachusetts (p < 0.001), Birmingham, Alabama (p = 0.002), and Green Bay, Wisconsin (p = 0.034) metropolitan areas, but the strength of the relations varied among regions. Urban streams were more depleted of taxa than streams in other land-use settings, but larger networks of riparian forest appeared to mediate biological degradation. Taxa that occurred less frequently than predicted by the model were those known to be generally intolerant of a variety of anthropogenic stressors. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets &ndash; the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Journal of Flood Risk Management

Sources of uncertainty in flood inundation maps

Flood inundation maps typically have been used to depict inundated areas for floods having specific exceedance levels. The uncertainty associated with the inundation boundaries is seldom quantified, in part, because all of the sources of uncertainty are not recognized and because data available to quantify uncertainty seldom are available. Sources of uncertainty discussed in this paper include hydrologic data used for hydraulic model development and validation, topographic data, and the hydraulic model. The assumption of steady flow, which typically is made to produce inundation maps, has less of an effect on predicted inundation at lower flows than for higher flows because more time typically is required to inundate areas at high flows than at low flows. Difficulties with establishing reasonable cross sections that do not intersect and that represent water-surface slopes in tributaries contribute additional uncertainties in the hydraulic modelling. As a result, uncertainty in the flood inundation polygons simulated with a one-dimensional model increases with distance from the main channel.

Journal of Flood Risk Management