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USGS2014

Part I—History and activities of the section of geophysics of the United States Geological Survey

From the beginning of time, all ingenuity of mankind has been concentrated upon the methods of finding gold and unusual deposits in the earth. An illustration (Fig. 1) from the old treatise by Agricola, “De Re Metallica,” published in 1580, will serve to show the implicit faith of that generation in divining methods. However, it was not until 1920 that real progress was made in prospecting by using the latest advances of the physical sciences. The public interest was stimulated by the successes of these methods on the part of commercial operators, and governmental agencies received many requests for information concerning their reliability. There were also, in the late 1920's, high‐pressure mine‐promotion schemes which used geophysical methods in a very questionable manner, symbolized in Figure 2 as of 1928 by an electrified forked stick. Authoritative information concerning such practices for public protection was needed to curb such notorious undertakings. Dr. Scott Turner, then Director of the United States Bureau of Mines, thoroughly understood the situation and was first in the governmental departments to recognize the possible value of a study of modern prospecting methods. The Bureau of Mines began this investigation by employing Drs. A. S. Eve and D. A. Keys of McGill University for short periods in the summer in 1927. Their first publication [see 1 of “References” at end of paper] served to illustrate the fundamental scientific principles which underlie geophysical prospecting. This was followed by a second publication [2] giving the results of field‐tests. In the light of the rapid improvements during the intervening ten years, these two papers take a historical position.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2018

UZIG research: Measurement and characterization of unsaturated zone processes under wide-ranging climates and changing conditions

Unsaturated zone properties and processes are central to understanding the interacting effects of land-use change, contamination, and hydroclimate on our ability to grow food, sustain clean water supplies, and minimize loss of life and property. Advances in unsaturated zone science are being achieved through collaborations across traditional boundaries where information from biological, physical, and chemical disciplines is combined for new insights. The Unsaturated Zone Interest Group (UZIG) is an organization that exists principally to promote multidisciplinary collaborations and the sharing of ideas, expertise, and technical assets. Here we summarize key findings from 14 papers, several of which originated from a meeting convened by UZIG in 2017 at the University of Florida in Gainesville titled “Land-Use Change, Climate Change, and Hydrologic Extremes: Unsaturated Zone Responses and Feedbacks.” This special section of Vadose Zone Journal contains multidisciplinary research in three general categories relevant to measuring and understanding unsaturated zone responses to changing land uses and climate: (i) unsaturated zone properties and processes; (ii) soil–plant–atmosphere interactions; and (iii) novel field sampling devices. A strong cross-cutting theme in these papers is the value of continuous monitoring data and ways of utilizing them to discover novel hydrologic, biologic, and pedologic information. As climatic and land-use conditions change and demands for resources and stresses on ecosystems continue to intensify, it is vital to improve our fundamental understanding of the processes at work in the unsaturated zone. Toward that goal, we discuss the need for improved ground-based unsaturated zone monitoring networks.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

USGS1976

United States Geological Survey Annual Report, Fiscal Year 1975

The Survey resumes the practice of annually summarizing the progress it has made in identifying the Nation's land, water, energy, and mineral resources, classifying federally owned mineral lands and waterpower sites, and in supervising the exploration and development of energy and mineral resources on Federal and Indian lands. The Annual Report for 1975 consists of five parts: * The Year in Review - a review of the issues and events which affected Survey programs and highlights of program accomplishments. * Perspectives - several short papers which address major resource issues and summarize recent advances in the earth sciences. * A description of the Survey's budget, programs, and accomplishments. * A set of statistical tables and related information which documents program trends, workloads, and accomplishments. * A compendium of Survey publications and information services available to the public. One purpose of this report is to increase public awareness and understanding of the Geological Survey's programs and, more generally, of the role of earth sciences information in helping to resolve many of the natural resource conflicts that face our society now and in the years ahead. To be useful, however, information must be available and readily accessible to those responsible for natural resource policy at the time that the decisions are made. This report emphasizes the types of information products and services provided by the Survey and tells how to obtain additional information.

Annual Report↗

USGS1996

Strategic plan for the U.S. Geological Survey 1996 to 2005

During the past two decades profound changes have swept across the scientific, social, and political landscape in which the U.S. Geological Survey (the USGS) functions and to which it is inextricably linked. Core values that were institutionally forged and universally embraced in the past have been vigorously challenged and even vigorously assaulted. Political, economic, and societal forces that coalesced in 1995 threatened the very existence of the U.S. Geological Survey an organization that we long believed to be vital and important to the well-being of the American people and to the advancement of the earth sciences. The near abolishment of the USGS was averted largely by our customers. It was their understanding of the value of our work and their demand that we continue to provide our products and services that ensured our near-term survival.

Report↗

USGS2004

The Enterprise Web

The Enterprise Web is a bureau wide approach to managing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) information on the Web. Under the direction of the USGS Geographic Information Office, the Enterprise Web operates the Bureau's Web servers and their associated sites. Through a network of people and resources, the Enterprise Web or "E-Web" works with programs and partners to effectively use the USGS Web presence to advance and deliver natural science information. It provides the corporate infrastructure, best practices, and tools to focus the Bureau's Web presence on customer and business needs and to ensure that USGS Web sites are reliable, secure, and in compliance with all applicable laws, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requirements, and Department of the Interior (DOI) policy.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2011

Characterization of salinity and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2010

Salinity and selenium are naturally occurring and perva-sive in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado, includ-ing the watershed of Montrose Arroyo. Although some of the salinity and selenium loading in the Montrose Arroyo study area is from natural sources, additional loading has resulted from the introduction of intensive irrigation in the water-shed. With increasing land-use change and the conversion from irrigated agricultural to urban land, land managers and stakeholders need information about the long-term effects of land-use change on salinity and selenium loading. In response to the need to advance salinity and selenium science, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, and Colorado River Water Conservation District, developed a study to characterize salinity and selenium loading and how salinity and selenium sources may relate to land-use change in Montrose Arroyo. This report characterizes changes in salinity and selenium loading to Montrose Arroyo from March 1992 to February 2010 and the magnitude of land-use change between unirrigated desert, irrigated agricultural, and urban land-use/land-cover types, and discusses how the respective loads may relate to land-use change. Montrose Arroyo is an approximately 8-square-mile watershed in Montrose County in western Colorado. Salinity and selenium were studied in Montrose Arroyo in a 2001 study as part of a salinity- and selenium-control lateral project. The robust nature of the historical dataset indicated that Montrose Arroyo was a prime watershed for a follow-up study. Two sites from the 2001 study were used to monitor salinity and selenium loads in Montrose Arroyo in the follow-up study. Over the period of 2 water years and respective irrigation seasons (2008-2010), 27 water-quality samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made at the historical sites MA2 and MA4. Salinity and selenium concen-trations, loads, and streamflow were compared between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. No significant differences in streamflow, salinity (concen-tration and load), or selenium (concentration and load) were found at MA4 between the pre-lateral project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. The statistical analysis indicated no significant dif-ferences in streamflow or salinity (both concentration and load) between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2; however, selenium concentrations and loads were significantly greater between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2. Land-use change between MA4 and MA2 may have contributed to the determined differences in selenium values, but the specific mechanisms causing the increases between periods are unknown. The size of the urbanized area in Montrose Arroyo was quantified for 1993, 2002, and 2009 by using a geographic information system (GIS) with imagery from the specified years. The greatest change in land use from 1993 to 2009 was the increase of urban land due to conversion from irrigated agricultural land. The conversion of previously unirrigated desert to urban land or irrigated agriculture could become more common if urbanization and development expands into the eastern part of the watershed because a majority of the un-urbanized land in eastern Montrose Arroyo is unirrigated desert. By applying GIS to the City of Montrose 2008 com-prehensive growth plan, it was estimated that approximately 786 acres of previously irrigated agricultural land will be converted to urban land and 689 acres of unirrigated desert will be converted to urban land under the plan scenario. New development on previously unirrigated land in shale areas would likely increase the potential for mobilization of sele-nium and salinity from new sources to Montrose Arroyo and the Lower Gunnison River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

ShakeMap manual: technical manual, user's guide, and software guide

ShakeMap (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/shakemap) --rapidly, automatically generated shaking and intensity maps--combines instrumental measurements of shaking with information about local geology and earthquake location and magnitude to estimate shaking variations throughout a geographic area. The results are rapidly available via the Web through a variety of map formats, including Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages. These maps have become a valuable tool for emergency response, public information, loss estimation, earthquake planning, and post-earthquake engineering and scientific analyses. With the adoption of ShakeMap as a standard tool for a wide array of users and uses came an impressive demand for up-to-date technical documentation and more general guidelines for users and software developers. This manual is meant to address this need. ShakeMap, and associated Web and data products, are rapidly evolving as new advances in communications, earthquake science, and user needs drive improvements. As such, this documentation is organic in nature. We will make every effort to keep it current, but undoubtedly necessary changes in operational systems take precedence over producing and making documentation publishable.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2008

Palaeoclimate

This chapter assesses palaeoclimatic data and knowledge of how the climate system changes over interannual to millennial time scales, and how well these variations can be simulated with climate models. Additional palaeoclimatic perspectives are included in other chapters. Palaeoclimate science has made significant advances since the 1970s, when a primary focus was on the origin of the ice ages, the possibility of an imminent future ice age, and the first explorations of the so-called Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. Even in the first IPCC assessment (IPCC, 1990), many climatic variations prior to the instrumental record were not that well known or understood. Fifteen years later, understanding is much improved, more quantitative and better integrated with respect to observations and modelling. After a brief overview of palaeoclimatic methods, including their strengths and weaknesses, this chapter examines the palaeoclimatic record in chronological order, from oldest to youngest. This approach was selected because the climate system varies and changes over all time scales, and it is instructive to understand the contributions that lower-frequency patterns of climate change might make in influencing higher-frequency patterns of variability and change. In addition, an examination of how the climate system has responded to large changes in climate forcing in the past is useful in assessing how the same climate system might respond to the large anticipated forcing changes in the future.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for projected changes in water quality and quantity for protected areas in the upper Midwest

Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to natural resource managers charged with the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. Forecasting the potential impacts of climate changes will be important for decision-makers and land managers seeking to minimize impacts to habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations and prepare for the future. In collaboration with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) managers, we developed a climate change vulnerability assessment to spatially evaluate climate vulnerabilities across the Midwest region. To create the vulnerability assessment, we convened resource managers and scientists working across the region to determine the components and scope of the vulnerability assessment. The vulnerability assessment was watershed-based and composed of 15 indicators of climate change and five indicators that reflect the capacity of a watershed to buffer against the effects of climate change. The indicators were selected by FWS managers to have broad applicability across systems and programs in the FWS. To facilitate usability, we created an online application that allows users to generate customizable vulnerability assessments. We then integrated the assessment into a process for engaging in climate change adaptation thinking as a precursor to formal planning, implementation, and monitoring of adaptation actions. The process we designed focused on understanding the components of the system, assessing climate change vulnerabilities, creating and describing possible climate change scenarios, and identifying impacts and adaptation options for each scenario. We piloted this process in a virtual workshop setting with FWS managers and biologists on the topic of managed wetland systems. This work is currently being used by the FWS to better understand regional vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies and to advance integration of climate science into formal planning processes.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2016

Enabling science support for better decision-making when responding to chemical spills

Chemical spills and accidents contaminate the environment and disrupt societies and economies around the globe. In the United States there were approximately 172,000 chemical spills that affected US waterbodies from 2004 to 2014. More than 8000 of these spills involved non–petroleum-related chemicals. Traditional emergency responses or incident command structures (ICSs) that respond to chemical spills require coordinated efforts by predominantly government personnel from multiple disciplines, including disaster management, public health, and environmental protection. However, the requirements of emergency response teams for science support might not be met within the traditional ICS. We describe the US ICS as an example of emergency-response approaches to chemical spills and provide examples in which external scientific support from research personnel benefitted the ICS emergency response, focusing primarily on nonpetroleum chemical spills. We then propose immediate, near-term, and long-term activities to support the response to chemical spills, focusing on nonpetroleum chemical spills. Further, we call for science support for spill prevention and near-term spill-incident response and identify longer-term research needs. The development of a formal mechanism for external science support of ICS from governmental and nongovernmental scientists would benefit rapid responders, advance incident- and crisis-response science, and aid society in coping with and recovering from chemical spills.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2025

Potential for continental scientific drilling to inform fault mechanics and earthquake science

Our understanding of fault mechanics and earthquake processes remains limited, largely due to minimal direct observations near active faults at seismogenic depths. This lack of data restricts our ability to accurately assess and mitigate both natural and human-induced seismic hazards. However, recent advancements in drilling capabilities and downhole sensing technologies offer an opportunity: the ability to observe the physical conditions within a volume near active fault zones. In this contribution, we highlight how scientific drilling can provide access to the near-fault environment, enabling measurements of the stress, temperature, fluid pressure, and rock properties at depths where ruptures initiate, propagate, and arrest. These observations are essential to refine models of earthquake nucleation and dynamic rupture, bridging gaps between laboratory experiments, numerical simulations, and surface observations. These insights can advance fundamental understanding in earthquake science but also support the development of more effective seismic hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.

Seismica↗

USGS2011

Measuring currents in submarine canyons: technological and scientific progress in the past 30 years

The development and application of acoustic and optical technologies and of accurate positioning systems in the past 30 years have opened new frontiers in the submarine canyon research communities. This paper reviews several key advancements in both technology and science in the field of currents in submarine canyons since the1979 publication of Currents in Submarine Canyons and Other Sea Valleys by Francis Shepard and colleagues. Precise placements of high-resolution, high-frequency instruments have not only allowed researchers to collect new data that are essential for advancing and generalizing theories governing the canyon currents, but have also revealed new natural phenomena that challenge the understandings of the theorists and experimenters in their predictions of submarine canyon flow fields. Baroclinic motions at tidal frequencies, found to be intensified both up canyon and toward the canyon floor, dominate the flow field and control the sediment transport processes in submarine canyons. Turbidity currents are found to frequently occur in active submarine canyons such as Monterey Canyon. These turbidity currents have maximum speeds of nearly 200 cm/s, much smaller than the speeds of turbidity currents in geological time, but still very destructive. In addition to traditional Eulerian measurements, Lagrangian flow data are essential in quantifying water and sediment transport in submarine canyons. A concerted experiment with multiple monitoring stations along the canyon axis and on nearby shelves is required to characterize the storm-trigger mechanism for turbidity currents.

Geosphere↗

USGS2025

What is eDNA method standardization and why do we need it?

The rapid advancement of environmental DNA ( eDNA ) science in the past two decades has inspired a concomitant growth in the development of eDNA sampling and analytical methods. However, these methods are often developed by individual laboratories or institutions, which can isolate protocols within programmes, agencies or regions and prevent the beneficial exchange of data and ideas. Recent efforts to advance national and international coordination have resulted in a groundswell of standardisation efforts, but there is still considerable confusion around the role of formal standards for regulatory or research applications. With this commentary, we hope to provide clarity on the terminology used in standardisation discussions, including the differences between formal standards and best practice guidelines. Additionally, we discuss how eDNA method choice may be informed by environmental management scenarios and review examples of formal eDNA method standards being used to inform management action. The eDNA community now has an opportunity to develop a roadmap for method development to help close standardisation gaps, advance eDNA method adoption and accelerate our ability to monitor biological life at the scales our current environmental challenges demand.

Metabarcoding and Metagenomics↗

USGS2023

GeoAI for spatial image processing

The development of digital image processing, as a subset of digital signal processing, depended upon the maturity of photography and image science, introduction of computers, discovery and advancement of digital recording devices, and the capture of digital images. In addition, government and industry applications in the Earth and medical sciences were paramount to the growth of the technology. From the early days when photography was first introduced to science to today, artificial intelligence and deep learning technologies have been intensively used to analyze imagery. Spatial image processing has experienced breakthroughs and evolutions. This chapter presents an overview of the history of image processing, GeoAI-based image processing applications, and the role of GeoAI in advancing image processing methods and research. We also discussed the remaining challenges to using GeoAI for image processing regarding training data annotation, the issues of scale, resolution, and change in space over time.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Enhancing One Health outcomes using decision science and negotiation

One Health initiatives have advanced zoonotic disease management by recognizing the interconnectedness of three sectors of governance (human, ecosystem, and animal) and by identifying options that can improve full-system health. Although One Health has had many successes, its full realization may be inhibited by a lack of strategies to overcome simultaneous impediments in decision making and governance. Decision impediments that hinder management may include uncertainty, risk, resource limitations, and trade-offs among objectives. Governance impediments arise from disparities in costs and benefits of disease management among sectors. Tools and strategies developed from decision science, collaboration, and negotiation theory can help articulate and overcome coinciding decision and governance impediments and enhance multisectoral One Health initiatives. In cases where collaboration and negotiation are insufficient to address disparities in cross-sector costs and benefits, altering incentive structures might improve disease-specific outcomes and improve the realization of One Health.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2022

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

South Dakota↗

USGS2011

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Global Change Biology↗