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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2002

A hierarchical analysis of population change with application to Cerulean Warblers

Estimation of population change from count surveys is complicated by variation in quality of information among sample units, by the need for covariates to accommodate factors that influence detectability of animals, and by multiple geographic scales of interest. We present a hierarchical model for estimation of population change from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Hierarchical models, in which population parameters at different geographic scales are viewed as random variables, provide a convenient framework for summary of population change among regions, accommodating regional variation in survey quality and a variety of distributional assumptions about observer effects and other nuisance parameters. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide a convenient means for fitting these models and also allow for construction of estimates of derived variables such as weighted regional trends and composite yearly population indices. We construct an overdispersed Poisson regression model for estimation of trend and year effects for Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea), accommodating nuisance covariates for observer and start-up effects, and estimating abundance- and area-weighted annual indices at regional and continent-wide geographic scales. A goodness-of-fit test is also presented for the model. Cerulean Warblers declined at a rate of 3.04% per year over the interval 1966-2000.

Ecology↗
USGS2007

A Bayesian state-space formulation of dynamic occupancy models

Species occurrence and its dynamic components, extinction and colonization probabilities, are focal quantities in biogeography and metapopulation biology, and for species conservation assessments. It has been increasingly appreciated that these parameters must be estimated separately from detection probability to avoid the biases induced by nondetection error. Hence, there is now considerable theoretical and practical interest in dynamic occupancy models that contain explicit representations of metapopulation dynamics such as extinction, colonization, and turnover as well as growth rates. We describe a hierarchical parameterization of these models that is analogous to the state-space formulation of models in time series, where the model is represented by two components, one for the partially observable occupancy process and another for the observations conditional on that process. This parameterization naturally allows estimation of all parameters of the conventional approach to occupancy models, but in addition, yields great flexibility and extensibility, e.g., to modeling heterogeneity or latent structure in model parameters. We also highlight the important distinction between population and finite sample inference; the latter yields much more precise estimates for the particular sample at hand. Finite sample estimates can easily be obtained using the state-space representation of the model but are difficult to obtain under the conventional approach of likelihood-based estimation. We use R and Win BUGS to apply the model to two examples. In a standard analysis for the European Crossbill in a large Swiss monitoring program, we fit a model with year-specific parameters. Estimates of the dynamic parameters varied greatly among years, highlighting the irruptive population dynamics of that species. In the second example, we analyze route occupancy of Cerulean Warblers in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a model allowing for site-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. The results indicate relatively low turnover and a stable distribution of Cerulean Warblers which is in contrast to analyses of counts of individuals from the same survey that indicate important declines. This discrepancy illustrates the inertia in occupancy relative to actual abundance. Furthermore, the model reveals a declining patch survival probability, and increasing turnover, toward the edge of the range of the species, which is consistent with metapopulation perspectives on the genesis of range edges. Given detection/non-detection data, dynamic occupancy models as described here have considerable potential for the study of distributions and range dynamics.

Ecology↗
USGS1998

Estimating rates of local species extinction, colonization and turnover in animal communities

Species richness has been identified as a useful state variable for conservation and management purposes. Changes in richness over time provide a basis for predicting and evaluating community responses to management, to natural disturbance, and to changes in factors such as community composition (e.g., the removal of a keystone species). Probabilistic capture-recapture models have been used recently to estimate species richness from species count and presence-absence data. These models do not require the common assumption that all species are detected in sampling efforts. We extend this approach to the development of estimators useful for studying the vital rates responsible for changes in animal communities over time; rates of local species extinction, turnover, and colonization. Our approach to estimation is based on capture-recapture models for closed animal populations that permit heterogeneity in detection probabilities among the different species in the sampled community. We have developed a computer program, COMDYN, to compute many of these estimators and associated bootstrap variances. Analyses using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) suggested that the estimators performed reasonably well. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modeling for future work on community responses to management efforts as well as on basic questions about community dynamics.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2004

Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occuning within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also requires that at least two-thirds of the target region be covered by the monitoring program. We recommend that the standard be achieved for species' entire ranges or for any area one-third the size of the temperate portions of Canada and the United States, whichever is smaller. We applied our approach to North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. At present, potential annual bias for the BBS is estimated at ??0.008. Further, the BBS achieves the monitoring standard for only about 42% of landbirds for which the BBS is considered the most effective monitoring approach. Achieving the proposed monitoring target for ???80% of these species would require increasing the number of BBS - or similar survey - routes by several-fold, a goal that probably is impractical. We suggest several methods for reducing potential bias and argue that if our methods are implemented, potential bias would fall to ??0.003. The required number of BBS or similar routes would then be 5,106, about 40% more than in the current BBS program. Most of the needed increases are in 15 states or provinces. Developing a comprehensive land-bird monitoring program will require increased support for coordination of the BBS (currently 2 people) and new programs for species that are poorly covered at present. Our results provide a quantitative goal for long-term land-bird monitoring and identify the sample sizes needed, within each state and province, to achieve the monitoring goal for most of the roughly 300 landbird species that are well suited to monitoring with the BBS and similar surveys.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2010

Comparative analysis of Mourning Dove population change in North America

Mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) are surveyed in North America with a Call-Count Survey (CCS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Analyses in recent years have identified inconsistencies in results between surveys, and a need exists to analyze the surveys using modern methods and examine possible causes of differences in survey results. Call-Count Survey observers collect separate information on number of doves heard and number of doves seen during counting, whereas BBS observers record one index containing all doves observed. We used hierarchical log-linear models to estimate trend and annual indices of abundance for 1966–2007 from BBS data, CCS-heard data, and CCS-seen data. Trend estimates from analyses provided inconsistent results for several states and for eastern and central dovemanagement units. We examined differential effects of change in land use and noise-related disturbance on the CCS indices. Changes in noiserelated disturbance along CCS routes had a larger influence on the heard index than on the seen index, but association analyses among states of changes in temperature and of amounts of developed land suggest that CCS indices are differentially influenced by changes in these environmental features. Our hierarchical model should be used to estimate population change from dove surveys, because it provides an efficient framework for estimating population trends from dove indices while controlling for environmental features that differentially influence the indices.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1994

Within-site variability in surveys of wildlife populations

Most large-scale surveys of animal populations are based on counts of individuals observed during a sampling period, which are used as indexes to the population. The variability in these indexes not only reflects variability in population sizes among sites but also variability due to the inexactness of the counts. Repeated counts at survey sites can be used to document this additional source of variability and, in some applications, to mitigate its effects. We present models for evaluating the proportion of total variability in counts that is attributable to this within-site variability and apply them in the analysis of data from repeated counts on routes from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We analyzed data on 98 species, obtaining estimates of these percentages, which ranged from 3.5 to 100% with a mean of 36.25%. For at least 14 of the species, more than half of the variation in counts was attributable to within-site sources. Counts for species with lower average counts had a higher percentage of within-site variability. We discuss the relative cost efficiency of replicating sites or initiating new sites for several objectives, concluding that it is frequently better to initiate new sites than to attempt to replicate existing sites.

Ecology↗
USGS1996

Extremes in ecology: Avoiding the misleading effects of sampling variation in summary analyses

Surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) produce large collections of parameter estimates. One's natural inclination when confronted with lists of parameter estimates is to look for the extreme values: in the BBS, these correspond to the species that appear to have the greatest changes in population size through time. Unfortunately, extreme estimates are liable to correspond to the most poorly estimated parameters. Consequently, the most extreme parameters may not match up with the most extreme parameter estimates. The ranking of parameter values on the basis of their estimates is a difficult statistical problem. We use data on 401 species from the BBS and simulations to illustrate the potential misleading effects of sampling variation in rankings of parameters. We describe empirical Bayes and constrained empirical Bayes procedures that provide partial solutions to the problem of ranking in the presence of sampling variation.

Ecology↗
USGS1997

Estimation of population trajectories from count data

Monitoring of changes in animal population size is rarely possible through complete censuses; frequently, the only feasible means of monitoring changes in population size is to use counts of animals obtained by skilled observers as indices to abundance. Analysis of changes in population size can be severely biased if factors related to the acquisition of data are not adequately controlled for. In particular we identify two types of observer effects: these correspond to baseline differences in observer competence, and to changes through time in the ability of individual observers. We present a family of models for count data in which the first of these observer effects is treated as a nuisance parameter. Conditioning on totals of negative binomial counts yields a Dirichlet compound multinomial vector for each observer. Quasi-likelihood is used to estimate parameters related to population trajectory and other parameters of interest; model selection is carried out on the basis of Akaike's information criterion. An example is presented using data on Wood thrush from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

Biometrics↗
USGS2014

Density and abundance of Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata in winter in the Lower Mississippi Flyway, USA

Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata is one of the least studied North American game birds, and information on snipe populations and abundance is mostly unknown. We conducted roadside surveys stratified at the township level in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV) in Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, as well as the Red River Region, and the Gulf Coastal Plain of Louisiana during winters of 2009 and 2010. We identified observer, vegetation cover, and water cover as important covariates in estimating snipe densities. We detected 2915 snipe along 814 line transects (1450 km) for 2009 and 2010 combined. We estimated snipe densities of 8.05 individuals km -2 (95% CI: 4.57-14.17) in 2009, and 2.13 individuals km -2 (95% CI: 1.47-3.08) in 2010. We used the resulting snipe density estimates within the study area to calculate abundance estimates of 1 026 431 (95% CI: 582 707-1 806 774) in 2009, and 271 590 (95% CI: 187 435-392 722) in 2010 for the LMAV. Our data indicate that a road transect survey method is effective for estimating wintering snipe density and abundance in the lower Mississippi Flyway.

Wildlife Biology↗
USGS2025

Developing research tools for demographic study of Rhynchophanes mccownii (thick-billed longspurs)

Like numerous other North American grassland bird species, Rhynchophanes mccownii (thick-billed longspur) has experienced severe population declines in the last 50 years. Little is known about population-limiting factors, and knowledge gaps limit conservation efforts on the species; however, before research studies aimed at improving conservation and management actions can be developed, other research must resolve notable knowledge gaps that exist in field techniques for efficient and effective large-scale demographic studies. We examined several techniques for the capture, marking (metal, color bands, and transmitters), and reencountering (resights and telemetry) of thick-billed longspurs in croplands and prairies in Valley County, Montana, during the 2022 and 2023 breeding seasons. Our goal was to evaluate the feasibility of obtaining within- and between-season resights of individual thick-billed longspurs using optical equipment and cameras, transmitter receivers, and the Motus automatic receiving station network. This report includes observations and insights that may aid researchers embarking on future demographic studies of thick-billed longspurs, as well as other grassland birds that provide similar research challenges.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Spatial and temporal patterns in population trends and burrow usage of burrowing owls in North America

Many researchers have suggested that abundance of Burrowing Owls ( Athene cunicularia ) has declined in many portions of their breeding range, but a thorough review of their population trends over time is lacking. Published population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey program suggested that Burrowing Owl populations in the US have declined over the past 60 yr, but the declines were not considered significant until 2014. However, accurate trend estimates and the statistical significance of those estimates were hampered by low relative abundance of owls. Moreover, many authors have suggested that eradication of burrowing animals is a major cause of Burrowing Owl declines, because burrows dug by burrowing animals are a critical resource for Western Burrowing Owls ( A. cunicularia hypugaea ). Despite this, we currently lack a range-wide summary of the burrowing animals on which Western Burrowing Owls depend. To help fill these two information gaps, my objectives were to: (1) use Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data to examine geographic patterns in population trends of Burrowing Owls throughout their breeding range in the USA, and (2) use past studies to provide the first summary of the spatial extent to which Western Burrowing Owls rely on the suite of burrowing animals throughout their breeding range. Significantly more BBS routes in the US show declining counts of owls than show increasing or stable counts, and the declines were most apparent prior to 1995. Counts of Burrowing Owls declined most precipitously on the northern edge and southern edge of the owl's US breeding range. Western Burrowing Owls primarily use black-tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) burrows in the eastern portion of their breeding range, whereas the diversity of burrowing species on which the owls depend is much greater in the western and central portions of their breeding range. Burrowing owl declines have been most apparent in portions of their range where they rely primarily on Richardson's ground squirrels ( Urocitellus richardsonii ), California ground squirrels ( Otospermophilus beecheyi ), black-tailed prairie dogs, and American badgers ( Taxidea taxus ).

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2021

American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size

Wildlife biologists monitor the status and trends of American woodcock Scolopax minor populations in the eastern and central United States and Canada via a singing-ground survey, conducted just after sunset along roadsides in spring. Annual analyses of the survey produce estimates of trend and annual indexes of abundance for 25 states and provinces, management regions, and survey-wide. In recent years, researchers have used a log-linear hierarchical model that defines year effects as random effects in the context of a slope parameter (the S model) to model population change. Recently, researchers have proposed alternative models suitable for analysis of singing-ground survey data. Analysis of a similar roadside survey, the North American Breeding Bird Survey, has indicated that alternative models are preferable for almost all species analyzed in the Breeding Bird Survey. Here, we use leave-one-out cross-validation to compare model fit for the present singing-ground survey model to fits of three alternative models, including a model that describes population change as the difference in expected counts between successive years (the D model) and two models that include t -distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion effects (H models) as opposed to normally distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion. Leave-one-out cross-validation results indicate that the Bayesian predictive information criterion favored the D model, but a pairwise t -test indicated that the D model was not significantly better-fitting to singing-ground survey data than the S model. The H models are not preferable to the alternatives with normally distributed overdispersion. All models provided generally similar estimates of trend and annual indexes suggesting that, within this model set, choice of model will not lead to alternative conclusions regarding population change. However, as in Breeding Bird Survey analyses, we note a tendency for S model results to provide slightly more extreme estimates of trend relative to D models. We recommend use of the D model for future singing-ground survey analyses.

Eastern and Central United States and Canada↗
USGS1993

Population trends of quails in North America

We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1966-91) to estimate distribution, relative abundance, and populatiori trends of quails. Population trends in grassland/shrub birds sympatric with northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) were also examined. Northern bobwhite and scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) populations have declined since 1966. Rates of decline for these quails have increased during the past decade. California quail (C. californica), Gambel's quail (C. gambeliI), and mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) populations have been stable over the long-term (1966-91). However, the short-term (1982-91) trend for California quail is positive, whereas Gambel's quail appear to be declining. Patterns in trends indicate similar factors may be negatively affecting breeding populations of grassland/shrub birds throughout the bobwhite's range. We discuss plausible hypotheses to explain population trends and recommend future action.

Book chapter↗
USGS1992

Geographic patterns in population trends of neotropical migrants in North America

We use the route-regression method to estimate the population trends of 100 species of Neotropical migrants using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). We examine long-term (1966-1988) and recent (1978-1988) trends. In the long-term, more species of Neotropical migrants were increasing than were decreasing in the eastern and western parts of the continent, but recent trends indicate that more species decreased than increased in their population index in the east. Recent population declines in the eastern part of the continent were primarily associated with bird species that breed in forested habitat. No association was detected between changes in forest acreages by state and population trends of Neotropical migrants in the United States and Canada.

Book chapter↗
USGS2000

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Book chapter↗
USGS2001

Estimation of species richness and parameters reflecting community dynamics using data from ecological monitoring programs

Although many ecological monitoring programs are now in place, the use of resulting data to draw inferences about changes in biodiversity is problematic. The difficulty arises because of the inability to count all animals present in any sampled area. This inability results not only in underestimation of species richness but also in potentially misleading comparisons of species richness over time and space. We recommend the use of probabilistic estimators for estimating species richness and related parameters (e.g., rate of change in species richness, local extinction probability, local turnover, local colonization) when animal detection probabilities are <1. We illustrate these methods using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey obtained along survey routes in Maryland. We also introduce software to implement these estimation methods.

Book chapter↗
USGS2008

Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

Book chapter↗