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USGS global change research

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

Fact Sheet

Application of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Missouri Streams

Natural flow regime concepts and theories have established the justification for maintaining or restoring the range of natural hydrologic variability so that physiochemical processes, native biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian assemblages can be sustained. A synthesis of recent research advances in hydroecology, coupled with stream classification using hydroecologically relevant indices, has produced the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP). HIP consists of (1) a regional classification of streams into hydrologic stream types based on flow data from long-term gaging-station records for relatively unmodified streams, (2) an identification of stream-type specific indices that address 11 subcomponents of the flow regime, (3) an ability to establish environmental flow standards, (4) an evaluation of hydrologic alteration, and (5) a capacity to conduct alternative analyses. The process starts with the identification of a hydrologic baseline (reference condition) for selected locations, uses flow data from a stream-gage network, and proceeds to classify streams into hydrologic stream types. Concurrently, the analysis identifies a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 11 subcomponents of flow for each stream type. Furthermore, regional hydrologic models for synthesizing flow conditions across a region and the development of flow-ecology response relations for each stream type can be added to further enhance the process. The application of HIP to Missouri streams identified five stream types ((1) intermittent, (2) perennial runoff-flashy, (3) perennial runoff-moderate baseflow, (4) perennial groundwater-stable, and (5) perennial groundwater-super stable). Two Missouri-specific computer software programs were developed: (1) a Missouri Hydrologic Assessment Tool (MOHAT) which is used to establish a hydrologic baseline, provide options for setting environmental flow standards, and compare past and proposed hydrologic alterations; and (2) a Missouri Stream Classification Tool (MOSCT) designed for placing previously unclassified streams into one of the five pre-defined stream types.

Open-File Report

Avoiding decline: Fostering resilience and sustainability in midsize cities

Eighty-five percent of United States citizens live in urban areas. However, research surrounding the resilience and sustainability of complex urban systems focuses largely on coastal megacities (>1 million people). Midsize cities differ from their larger counterparts due to tight urban-rural feedbacks with their immediate natural environments that result from heavy reliance and close management of local ecosystem services. They also may be less path-dependent than larger cities due to shorter average connection length among system components, contributing to higher responsiveness among social, infrastructural, and ecological feedbacks. These distinct midsize city features call for a framework that organizes information and concepts concerning the sustainability of midsize cities specifically. We argue that an integrative approach is necessary to capture properties emergent from the complex interactions of the social, infrastructural, and ecological subsystems that comprise a city system. We suggest approaches to estimate the relative resilience of midsize cities, and include an example assessment to illustrate one such estimation approach. Resilience assessments of a midsize city can be used to examine why some cities end up on sustainable paths while others diverge to unsustainable paths, and which feedbacks may be partially responsible. They also provide insight into how city planners and decision makers can use information about the resilience of midsize cities undergoing growth or shrinkage relative to their larger and smaller counterparts, to transform them into long-term, sustainable social-ecological systems.

Sustainability

Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts

Arctic coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and the loss of permafrost, sea ice and glaciers. Assessing the influence of anthropogenic warming on Arctic coastal dynamics, however, is challenged by the limited availability of observational, oceanographic and environmental data. Yet, with the majority of permafrost coasts being erosive, coupled with projected intensification of erosion and flooding, understanding these changes is critical. In this Review, we describe the morphological diversity of Arctic coasts, discuss important drivers of coastal change, explain the specific sensitivity of Arctic coasts to climate change and provide an overview of pan-Arctic shoreline change and its multifaceted impacts. Arctic coastal changes impact the human environment by threatening coastal settlements, infrastructure, cultural sites and archaeological remains. Changing sediment fluxes also impact the natural environment through carbon, nutrient and pollutant release on a magnitude that remains difficult to predict. Increasing transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary collaboration efforts will build the foundation for identifying sustainable solutions and adaptation strategies to reduce future risks for those living on, working at and visiting the rapidly changing Arctic coast.

Alaska

Geology and ground water in the Platte-Republican Rivers watershed and the Little Blue River basin above Angus, Nebraska, with a section on chemical quality of the ground water

This report describes an area of about 7,300 square miles in south-central Nebraska. Approximately one-fourth of the area, largely at its east end, consists of an undissected southeastward-sloping upland plain and is almost wholly irrigable; the remainder is in various stages of dissection and only parts of it are suitable for irrigation. Although some of the deeper lying bedrock formations are potential sources of water supply, they are not likely to be tapped in the near future because abundant supplies are available at shallower depth from semiconsolidated and unconsolidated deposits. The Ogallala formation of Tertiary (Pliocene) age consists of gravel, sand, silt, and volcanic ash, some layers of which are partly cemented. It was deposited by eastward-flowing streams, which formed a constructional plain above a surface into which the streams had previously eroded broad valleys. In turn, valleys were cut into the surface of the Ogallala before the overlying deposits of gravel, sand, silt, and clay of Quaternary (Pleistocene) age were laid down, also forming a constructional plain. During Recent time, streams have dissected the older deposits and have deposited thin alluvium in their valleys; also, several parts of the area have become mantled by wind-deposited sand. Because during Tertiary and Quaternary time the area repeatedly was the site of deposition and erosion, the thickness of all the stratigraphic units differs markedly from place to place. In general, however, the Ogallala formation thins eastward and in the central and eastern parts of the area is overlain by the eastward-thickening deposits of Pleistocene age. The maximum thickness of the Ogallala formation is about 500 feet, and the maximum thickness of the Pleistocene deposits is a little more than 300 feet. Each thins to a featheredge and is completely absent in parts of the area. The water-bearing part of the combined Tertiary and Pleistocene deposits is considered to be a single zone of saturation because the ground water, as it percolates southeastward beneath the area, moves out of the Tertiary and into the Quaternary deposits without apparent hindrance. The water that enters the area as underflow from the west is augmented within the area by water that infiltrates from the land surface. The principal sources of irrigating water are precipitation, seepage from canals and reservoirs, and applied irrigation water. Except for the water withdrawn through wells or discharged by natural processes where valleys have been cut into the zone of saturation, ground water leaves the area as underflow into the Platte River valley on the north, the Blue River drainage basin on the east, or the Republican River valley on the south. Part of the water used for irrigation and watering livestock and all the water used in rural and urban homes, in public buildings, and for industrial purposes is obtained from wells, To date (1952) there is no indication that the supply of ground water is being depleted faster than it is being replenished; instead, studies indicate that greater quantities can be withdrawn without causing an excessive decline of the water table. An increase of ground-water withdrawals to a sustainable maximum, however, will be possible only if the points of withdrawal are scattered fairly uniformly. It is estimated that annual withdrawals per township should not exceed 2,100 acre-feet where infiltrating precipitation is the only source of recharge, or 3,000 acre-feet where other sources of recharge are significant. Although perennial withdrawals of this amount could be sustained indefinitely, they would cause some lowering of the water table and eventually a decrease in the amount of water discharged from the area by natural means. The ground water is of the calcium bicarbonate type. In much of the area it is hard or very hard, and in places it contains excessive amounts of iron. In all other respects the water is chemically suitable for domesti

Nebraska

Beach nourishment response and recent morphological evolution of Minnesota Point, Lake Superior

Beach nourishments are a popular nature-based alternative to armoring for shoreline erosion mitigation, but nourishments have been criticized due to their environmental impacts and uncertain sustainability. Monitoring is often nonexistent or insufficient to constrain nourishment longevity and inform the renourishment interval required to maintain shoreline protection. This study uses a combination of topobathymetric surveys, high-resolution satellite-derived shorelines, and coastal engineering analyses to investigate the recent evolution of Minnesota Point and the fate of three beach nourishments constructed adjacent to littoral barriers. We use semi-empirical formulations for sediment compatibility, wave runup, and longshore sediment transport to inform the observed nourishment behavior. Minnesota Point experienced widespread foredune retreat averaging 7±2.8 m from 2009–2019 and 130,000 (70,000–140,000) m 3 of sediment was eroded during this interval. The 2019 nourishment at the Superior Entry was rapidly eroded by strong storms, losing >80% of the added beach width by the following spring. The 2020 and 2021 nourishments at the Duluth Entry retained >80% of the nourishment material at the time of the last topobathymetric survey in the fall of 2022, and satellite-derived shorelines indicate that the beach remained 10 m wider than pre-nourishment conditions at the end of 2023. Modeled longshore transport rates over the period 2009–2022 averaged 11,400 m 3 yr −1 northwestward at the Superior Entry, nearly 3x greater than the 4000 m 3 yr −1 southeastward transport modeled at the Duluth Entry. These observations show that differences in shoreline orientation, littoral sediment supply, and grain size compatibility can lead to contrasting beach nourishment longevities, and this study provides additional measurements of Minnesota Point’s long-term morphological change which can help inform coastal resiliency efforts.

Minnesota, Wisconsin

Population dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout during 1985-2007

Lake trout Salvelinus namaycush were extirpated from Lake Ontario circa 1950 owing to commercial and recreational fishing, predation by sea lampreys Petromyzon marinus , and habitat degradation. Since the 1970s, substantial efforts have been devoted to reestablishing a self-sustaining population through stocking, sea lamprey control, and harvest reduction. Although a stocking-supported population has been established, only limited natural reproduction has been detected. Since the 1990s, surveys have indicated a continuing decline in overall abundance despite fairly static stocking levels. We constructed a statistical catch-at-age model to describe the dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout from 1985 to 2007 and explore what factor(s) could be causing the declines in abundance. Model estimates indicated that abundance had declined by approximately 76% since 1985. The factor that appeared most responsible for this was an increase in age-1 natural mortality rates from approximately 0.9 to 2.5 between 1985 and 2002. The largest source of mortality for age-2 and older fish was sea lamprey predation, followed by natural and recreational fishing mortality. Exploitation was low, harvest levels being uncertain and categorized by length rather than age. Accurate predictions of fishery harvest and survey catch per unit effort were obtained despite low harvest levels by using atypical data (e.g., numbers stocked as an absolute measure of recruitment) and a flexible modeling approach. Flexible approaches such as this might allow similar assessments for a wide range of lightly exploited stocks. The mechanisms responsible for declining age-1 lake trout survival are unknown, but the declines were coincident with an increase in the proportion of stocked fish that were of the Seneca strain and a decrease in the overall stocking rate. It is possible that earlier studies suggesting that Seneca strain lake trout would be successful in Lake Ontario are no longer applicable given the large ecosystem changes that have occurred subsequent to invasion by dreissenid mussels.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Occurrence and distribution of nutrients, suspended sediment, and pesticides in the Mobile River Basin, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee, 1999-2001

The Mobile River Basin is one of more than 50 river basins and aquifer systems being investigated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water- Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. This basin is the sixth largest river basin in the United States and the fourth largest in terms of streamflow. The Mobile River Basin encompasses parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee, and almost two-thirds of the 44,0000-square-mile basin is located in Alabama. The extensive water resources of the Mobile River Basin are influenced by an array of natural and cultural factors, which impart unique and variable qualities to the streams, rivers, and aquifers and provide abundant habitat to sustain the diverse aquatic life in the basin. From January 1999 to December 2001, a study was conducted of the occurrence and distribution of nutrients, suspended sediment, and pesticides in surface water of the Mobile River Basin. Nine sampling sites were selected on the basis of land use. The nine sites included two streams draining agricultural areas, two urban streams, and five large rivers with mixed land use. Surface-water samples were collected from one to four times each month to characterize the spatial and temporal variation in nutrient and pesticide concentrations. Nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations were highest in watersheds dominated by urban or agricultural land uses. Forty-two percent of the total phosphorus concentrations at all nine sites exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended maximum concentration of 0.1 milligram per liter. Flow-weighted mean concentrations at the Mobile River Basin sites generally were in the lower to middle percentile ranges compared with data from other NAWQA studies across the Nation. However, flow-weighted mean concentrations of ammonia, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus at Bogue Chitto Creek, an agricultural watershed, ranked in the upper 20th percentile of agricultural sites sampled across the Nation as part of the NAWQA Program. Nutrient loads in the Tombigbee River were nearly twice as high compared with nutrient loads in the Alabama River. Nutrient yields were highest in Bogue Chitto Creek, Cahaba Valley Creek, and Threemile Branch because of agricultural and urban land uses in these watersheds. Of the 104 pesticides and degradation products analyzed in the stream samples, 69 were detected in one or more samples. Of the 69 detected pesticides, 51 were herbicides, 15 were insecticides, and 3 were fungicides. A relatively small number of heavily used herbicides accounted for most of the detections, including atrazine and its metabolites (deethylatrazine, 2-hydroxyatrazine, deisopropylatrazine, and deethyldeisopropylatrazine), simazine, metolachlor, tebuthiuron, prometon, diuron, and 2,4-D. Diazinon, chlorpyrifos, and carbaryl were the most frequently detected insecticides; metalaxyl was the most frequently detected fungicide in the Mobile River Basin. Concentrations of pesticides detected in surface water of the Mobile River Basin were among the highest concentrations recorded nationally by the NAWQA Program during 1991 to 2001. The three highest concentrations of atrazine detected at sites across the country were recorded at Bogue Chitto Creek; the highest concentrations of 2,4-D, imazaquin, and malathion recorded nationally were detected at Threemile Branch. Aquatic-life criteria were exceeded by concentrations of five herbicides (2,4-D, atrazine, cyanazine, diuron, and metolachlor), six insecticides (carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dieldrin, malathion, and p,p'-DDE), and one fungicide (chlorothalonil). Drinking-water standards were exceeded by concentrations of four herbicides (2,4-D, atrazine, cyanazine, and simazine), three insecticides (alpha- HCH, diazinon, and dieldrin), and one fungicide (chlorothalonil). The types and concentrations of pesticides found in surface water are linked to land use and to the types of pesti

Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee

Pacific salmonines in the Great Lakes Basin

Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus) are a valuable resource, both within their native range in the North Pacific rim and in the Great Lakes basin. Understanding their value from a biological and economic perspective in the Great Lakes, however, requires an understanding of changes in the ecosystem and of management actions that have been taken to promote system stability, integrity, and sustainable fisheries. Pacific salmonine introductions to the Great Lakes are comprised mainly of Chinook salmon, coho salmon, and steelhead and have accounted for 421, 177, and 247 million fish, respectively, stocked during 1966-2007. Stocking of Pacific salmonines has been effective in substantially reducing exotic prey fish abundances in several of the Great Lakes (e.g., lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario). The goal of our evaluation was to highlight differences in management strategies and perspectives across the basin, and to evaluate policies for Pacific salmonine management in the Great Lakes. Currently, a potential conflict exists between Pacific salmonine management and native fish rehabilitation goals because of the desire to sustain recreational fisheries and to develop self-sustaining populations of stocked Pacific salmonines in the Great Lakes. We provide evidence that suggests Pacific salmonines have not only become naturalized to the food webs of the Great Lakes, but that their populations (specifically Chinook salmon) may be fluctuating in concert with specific prey (i.e., alewives) whose populations are changing relative to environmental conditions and ecosystem disturbances. Remaining questions, however, are whether or not “natural” fluctuations in predator and prey provide enough “stability” in the Great Lakes food webs, and even more importantly, would a choice by managers to attempt to reduce the severity of predator-prey oscillations be antagonistic to native fish restoration efforts. We argue that, on each of the Great Lakes, managers are pursuing appropriate goals, managing the aquatic resources of the lakes for the greatest public good, given the variability in conditions and likelihood for success specific to each lake.

Book chapter

Management of Sequoiadendron giganteum and Sequoia sempervirens forests in the reserves of California - Considerations of ecology and conservation

Giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ), also known as “Bigtree” and “Sierra Redwood,” is entirely restricted to the Sierra Nevada mountain range in the State of California, while coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ) is restricted to coastal northern California, extending northward slightly into the State of Oregon. Both charismatic species, members of the family Taxodiaceae, have served as important cultural icons in America, and both have played important roles in the history of nature conservation. The two species share important ecological similarities as well as significant differences; these ecological factors have become increasingly important in effecting their conservation, and in developing successful strategies for the long-term sustainable management of the forest communities in which they occur. The bulk of giant sequoia groves occur in reserves protected from logging, while only a small proportion of coast redwoods are similarly protected. For most of its history in the 20th century, conservation has been concerned with protecting uncut “old-growth” forest stands of giant trees. While this remains of great concern to the public, scientists and reserve managers have, in recent decades, extended their interest to what is known as “ecosystem management,” which includes all aspects of the natural ecosystems in which coast redwoods and giant sequoias occur. For the first time, attempts are presently beginning--in those areas outside the national parks, state parks, and other reserves, to reconcile some levels of timber harvest with the long-term sustainable preservation of the character and biodiversity of giant sequoia and redwood forests.

California

Natural resource management decision-making under climate uncertainty: Building social-ecological resilience in southwestern Colorado

The goal of this project was to facilitate climate change adaptation that contributes to social-ecological resilience, ecosystem and species conservation, and sustainable human communities in southwestern Colorado. The team developed and piloted integrated adaptation planning tools and principles that merge the strengths of the iterative scenario process, the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning framework, institutional analysis, and climate modeling. These tools and principles generated practical strategies and scientific knowledge to advance climate change adaptation in both the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin and, potentially, other landscapes. A key objective of this project was to work with decision-makers to develop social-ecological adaptation strategies and coordinate actions to reduce the impacts of a changing climate on nature and people. To accomplish this, the project blended science (biophysical and social) and participatory approaches to integrate expert knowledge, land management decision making, and local needs. These adaptation strategies and their creation process were documented by the project team to assist communities and scientists elsewhere who are grappling with the challenges posed by climate change.

Colorado

Methods used to estimate daily streamflow and water availability in the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator is a decision support tool that provides estimates of daily unaltered streamflow, water-use-adjusted streamflow, and water availability for ungaged, user-defined basins in Massachusetts. Daily streamflow at the ungaged site is estimated for unaltered (no water use) and water-use scenarios. The procedure for estimating streamflow was developed previously and has been implemented with minor changes and updated water-use data in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. Unaltered streamflow at selected exceedance probabilities is estimated by previously published regression equations. Streamflow is interpolated between the regressed quantiles to produce a continuous flow duration curve. A daily streamflow time series is produced for the ungaged site by relating the estimated flow duration curve at the ungaged site to a flow duration curve at a gaged reference site and then transferring the dates from the reference site to the ungaged site. Minor refinements were made to the previously published methods to estimate unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflow, including a procedure to enforce the monotonic structure of the regression-based unaltered flow quantiles, improvements to the interpolation method used for computing the estimated flow duration curve, and updates to the methods used to compute time-lagged stream alterations from groundwater pumping or discharges. Additionally, a procedure was developed to estimate prediction intervals for daily and monthly unregulated streamflow time series at an ungaged site. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using water-use data provided by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. Available water-use data included monthly withdrawal and wastewater discharge volumes from 2010 to 2014 for surface-water and groundwater sources. Water-use-adjusted streamflow represents the potential effect of current water use on natural streamflow in the basin over the range of historical hydrologic conditions. Georeferenced water withdrawal and discharge volumes were incorporated into the Massachusetts StreamStats web application for use in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. To compute water-use-adjusted streamflow, mean daily withdrawals and discharges within a user-defined basin are subtracted and added to the unaltered time series, respectively. Surface-water volumes are applied directly to the equation. Time-lagged streamflow alterations from groundwater withdrawal or wastewater discharge sources are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator was updated to version 2.0 to improve software stability and usability. The version 2.0 software application was developed in Microsoft Access with a graphical user interface. All geoprocessing steps, including basin delineation and compilation of basin characteristics and water use within the basin, were completed in the Massachusetts StreamStats web application and exported for use by the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0.

Massachusetts

InFish: A professional network to promote global conservation and responsible use of inland fish

Inland fishes and fisheries make substantial contributions to individuals, society, and the environment in a changing global landscape that includes climate, water allocations, and societal changes. However, current limitations to valuing the services provided by inland fish and their fisheries often leaves them out of key decision‐making discussions. InFish is a voluntary professional network with over 120 members from over 50 organizations in over 20 countries that seeks to address challenges facing inland fish through novel approaches and international collaborations. InFish fosters opportunities to share knowledge, pursue proposals, publications, and conference‐related events focused on inland fisheries. InFish has become a source of inland fisheries expertise, working collectively towards global conservation and sustainable use of inland fish through informing scientifically sound management practices. As such, InFish may serve as a model network for other natural resource challenges now and into the future.

Fisheries Magazine

Coupling near-surface geomorphology with mangrove community diversity at the estuarine scale: A case study at Dongzhaigang Bay, China

Coastal wetlands are key features of the Earth’s surface and are characterized by a diverse array of coupled geomorphological and biological processes. However, the links between the distribution of biodiversity (e.g., species and structural diversity) and the formation of coastal geomorphology are not well understood on a landscape scale most useful to coastal zone managers. This study describes the relationship between select geomorphological and biological mangrove community features (i.e., species composition and functional root type) in a landscape-distributed coastal zone of Dongzhaigang Bay, Northeastern Hainan Island, China. A total of 11 mangrove species and five functional aerial root types were encountered, with the location of species by root types being controlled by the elevation of the soil surface. Plank roots, prop roots, and pneumatophores occupied the lowest intertidal elevations, while knee roots and fibrous roots of the mangrove fern, Acrostichum aureum , preferred the highest intertidal elevations. Surface sediment deposition in areas with mangroves was greater than deposition in non-mangrove forest zones, establishing an important biological mechanism for this large-area response as surface erosion/compaction was also more prominent within mangrove roots. Indeed, functional root type influenced the magnitude of deposition, erosion, and compaction, with knee roots and pneumatophores being more effective in promoting deposition and preventing surface erosion/compaction than prop roots. These results indicate a potential role for vegetation type (especially functional root type) to influence coastal geomorphological processes at large landscape scales. While soil surface elevation is correlated to the distribution of mangrove species and functional root types, a significant feedback exists between elevation change and the capacity of those root types to influence coastal geomorphological differentiation within sustainable intertidal elevations. An enhanced understanding of geomorphological development, mangrove species distribution, and functional root type may improve management to support nature-based solutions that adjust more effectively to sea-level rise through feedbacks.

Houpai, Sanjiang, Tashi

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

Climatic Change

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research

Managed aquifer recharge in snow-fed river basins: What, why and how?

What does climate change mean for snow-fed river basins? Climate change poses unique challenges in snow-fed river basins across the western United States because the majority of water supply originates as snow (Dettinger, Udall, & Georgakakos, 2015). In the Sierra Nevada, recent observations include changes in snow accumulation and snowmelt, and shifts in peak streamflow timing (Barnhart et al., 2016; Hatchett et al., 2017; Kim & Jain, 2010; McCabe, Wolock, & Valentin, 2018; Mote, Li, Lettenmaier, Xiao, & Engel, 2018). Such changes upstream alter surface water deliveries downstream, as well as groundwater recharge utilized as both primary and supplemental water supply (Godsey et al., 2014; Harpold, 2016; Jasechko et al., 2014). basin where snowmelt runoff produces substantial water supply to meet diverse agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the Carson Valley, a rich agricultural region (40,000 acres) that grows primarily alfalfa hay. The majority of irrigators rely on surface water delivered through a network of earthen ditches constructed in the mid-19th and early 20th centuries. Flow through these earthen networks and the practice of flood irrigation contribute significantly to groundwater recharge. Because no upstream surface water reservoirs exist, snowpack that accumulates through winter and melts slowly through spring has acted as a “natural” reservoir, providing ample supply through the summer irrigati agricultural, environmental and urban water demand (Figure 1). The East and West Forks join at the confluence of the Carson River near the north end of the season. Some irrigators have permitted access to supplemental groundwater that is useful during periods of drought for augmenting shortfalls in surface water delivery. Groundwater is the primary source of municipal and industrial water supply for surrounding communities (e.g., Carson City, Minden, Gardnerville, Dayton). Across the basin, water use is highly regulated through federal, tribal, state and local water-sharing agreements based on prior appropriation doctrine (Wilds, 2014). Carson River surface water allocations follow the Alpine Decree, initiated by the United States Department of Interior in 1925 and signed into law in 1980, following 55 years of litigation, to adjudicate surface water rights to individual parties (NDWP, 1999). The Alpine Decree acknowledges return flows to lower river segments, and thus each river segment is distributed autonomously. This means that the most junior water right on an upper segment can be fulfilled before considering the most senior water right on a lower segment. Ultimately, the ruling is at the discretion of the Federal Water Master to satisfy the needs of each water right Downstream of Carson Valley, surface water flows are stored in Lahontan Reservoir, the nation’s first desert reclamation project (est. 1906), where releases are managed to meet the Newland’s Project irrigation water demand and for environmental use on the Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Flows from the Carson River are supplemented through diversions from the Truckee River via the Truckee Canal, resulting in a trans-basin water supply system. How is the Water for the Seasons research program informing snow-fed river basin communities? In the Truckee-Carson River System, researchers and local water managers are working together to assess climate change impacts to water supply and explore how model simulations can produce useful information to support local climate adaptation. Twelve key water managers represent agricultural, environmental, urban and regulatory water-use communities, and bring to the table diverse input and perspectives on how to adapt to climate change. Hydrologists use this input to craft scenarios and simulations that meet the information needs of local water managers. Biannual workshops provide an opportunity for information exchange, where researchers and key water managers generate new knowledge of river system function. That is, researchers share results of models that examine the physical potential, and managers validate the on-the-ground potential, further informing the research process. Coincident to this research program, the region faced a prolonged drought period (2012-2016) with historically low snowpack, followed by a historic wet year (2017) that brought winter and spring flooding as a result of atmospheric river storm events (Sterle et al., 2019). For the Carson River, an important observation made by managers was that peak streamflow that had traditionally coincided with peak irrigation demands, had shifted to earlier in the spring, with summer baseflow also decreasing (Sterle & Singletary, 2017). Managers shared with researchers concerns over potential future impacts that changing snowpack will have on surface water deliveries and reliance on groundwater, as the region’s population and economy continue to grow. During workshops that occurred over this period, local water managers and researchers discussed ways to evaluate water distribution and use that honors the existing legal framework and accounts for changing snowpack regimes (amount, rain versus snow, timing). In response to managers growing interest, researchers introduced the concept of managed aquifer recharge as one potential strategy to adapt and enhance regional water sustainability. What is managed aquifer recharge? Simply stated, managed aquifer recharge is the intentional recharge of structures to spread water over agricultural lands, allowing water to naturally infiltrate into the groundwater system (Bouwer, 1999; Niswonger et al., 2017). The latter may occur during the irrigation season by applying excess water, or during the nonirrigation season when evapotranspiration losses are low. Figure 2 illustrates managed aquifer recharge in a snow-fed river basin, where streamflow generated from snowmelt runoff is diverted to agricultural lands to recharge the aquifer. Such flood irrigation practices, including water delivery through earthen ditch networks, provide incidental but significant aquifer recharge through seepage and deep drainage beneath fields (Niswonger, Allander, & Jeton, 2014). The effects of managed aquifer recharge can vary depending on the location and intensity of practice. For example, implementing managed aquifer recharge water into the groundwater system (Dillon, 2009). This differs from the incidental recharge that may occur as part of normal irrigation practices. Managed recharge may occur by injection into the aquifer through existingwells, or by using existing conveyance adjacent to/along the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance late-season instream flows due to increased return flows, resulting in greater downstream deliveries as well as improving ecological conditions (Niswonger et al., 2017). Implementing managed aquifer recharge away from the river’s floodplain has the potential to enhance groundwater supply which is increasingly relied upon during surface water shortage (Green et al., 2011), by storing water in available aquifer space in the deep aquifer. At the basin scale, managed aquifer recharge may lead to regional groundwater sustainability. Is the Carson River Basin a candidate for managed aquifer recharge? The physical limitations to implementing managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin hinges on three key factors. The first factor relates to the physical connectivity between rivers and streams, and the irrigation delivery network of canals and ditches that divert water to agricultural lands (Niswonger et al., 2017). In the Carson River Basin the mechanisms for getting water to fields is already in place. Thus, intentionally routing high flows that occur in wet years through this system during the nonirrigation season would mimic what occurs naturally during the irrigation season. The second factor relates to the occurrence of atmospheric river storm events that deliver large amounts of precipitation to the region, much greater than average (Dettinger et al., 2015). With increased frequency and intensity projected under a warmer climate, such events have the potential to produce excess water over short periods of time that could be stored through mechanisms such as managed aquifer recharge (Niswonger et al., 2017). The third factor relates to the change in snowpack accumulation and shifts in snowmelt timing observed elsewhere in the Sierra Nevada (e.g., Godsey et al., 2014; Mote et al., 2018). Having a mechanism in place to maximize use of earlier snowmelt and shifts in streamflow timing could be advantageous and enhance regional groundwater sustainability. As part of the Water for the Seasons study, a hypothetical scenario was developed to determine the feasibility of managed aquifer recharge in the Carson River Basin, assuming no legal constraints. During “wet” or above-average water years, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley would divert high flows and spread water over agricultural lands during the nonirrigation season. Assuming flows are abundant and “early,” diversions would begin prior to the growing season, when water would otherwise flow downstream to the Lahontan Reservoir. During “dry” years or drought periods, when surface water availability is less, irrigators in the Upper Carson Valley could augment surface water shortages with groundwater, allowing available surface water flows to flow downstream. Researchers hypothesize the amount of water has the potential to boost baseflow to support environmental instream flows, for example. What concerns have local water managers expressed? The hypothetical managed aquifer recharge scenario was presented to water managers in a workshop setting. Presentations included an overview of the hydrologic and operations modeling tools used to evaluate managed aquifer recharge by simulating the timing and distribution of water in the upper watershed. Specifically, in the Upper Carson Valley, a hydrologic model (GSFLOW) simulates streamflow driven by snowmelt, and surface and groundwater interactions, while a river basin operations model (MODSIM) allocates water according to the prior appropriation doctrine in the basin (see Figure 1) (Morway, Niswonger, & Triana, 2016; Niswonger et al., 2017). Integrating these two modeling tools advances the evaluation of climate impacts on water availability in agricultural communities and the resulting impacts of alternative management strategies (Morway et al., 2016). When asked about the viability of managed aquifer recharge, the perspectives of 11 managers varied (Figure 3). Regardless of rating, all managers questioned, “How would thisreally work?” Several managers questioned whether models could simulate the connectivity between surface and groundwater to accurately quantify changes to instream flow. Others raised concerns that managed aquifer recharge violates the Alpine Decree and Nevada Water Law. Still others requested researchers consider alternatives that could work within the confines of current (2019) water law. Managers posed specific questions that should be considered when evaluating the potential for managed aquifer recharge. For example: What triggers implementation of managed aquifer recharge?How “high” or “low” must annual flows be to initiate managed aquifer recharge? When in the water year is this determined? Where exactly in the Carson Valley is managed aquiferre charge possible? For example, what areas away from the floodplain could ensure long-term storage? Can model simulations quantify potential benefits and consequences system-wide?Would this information support decision-making, such as permitting of additional supplemental groundwater rights? How are researchers going to address managers’ research questions? Managers’ perspectives help to validate the on-the-ground potential of particular strategies and further refine alternative management scenarios. For example, understanding that managers are concerned with oversaturated fields helps researchers to define conditions in the model, such as what defines a wet versus “too” wet type of year and where to focus irrigation for managed aquifer recharge. Incorporating these nuances provides more accurate quantification of the potential benefits and consequences for users across the basin. Modeling is underway to simulate managed aquifer recharge scenarios and explore basin-wide implications. Researchers and local water managers will convene to collaboratively review results and further assess whether this or other strategies could work under the confines of existing water law. Subsequent fact sheets will present these findings.

Nevada

Evaluating the sustainability of a cisco fishery in Thunder Bay, Ontario, under alternative harvest policies

Sustainable management of fish stocks is promoted through the application of management strategy evaluations (MSEs), providing information to managers on the relative performance of alternative management approaches (strategies) while accounting for uncertainty. In this study, we developed a simplified MSE of a stock of Cisco Coregonus artedi in Thunder Bay, Ontario, to determine both the sustainability of the current harvest control rule (i.e., a constant exploitation rate [ U ] of 10%) and the performance of alternative harvest control rules in meeting fishery objectives. Success in meeting fishery objectives was evaluated through attained yields, interannual variation in yields, magnitude of spawning stock biomass (SB), and the risk of reaching low SB—performance metrics established based on consultation with an advisory group to Lake Superior fishery managers. Our simulations explicitly accounted for uncertainty in the frequency of strong year‐classes being produced by Cisco, the stock–recruit relationship, stock abundance, and the sex‐specific nature of roe harvest. Assuming that future productivity is similar to the productivity observed over the period from 1985 to 2015, results suggest that the current U of 10% is sustainable in terms of maintaining SB above 20% of the unfished level. Variants of constant U control rules that included thresholds defining when U is to decrease as a function of SB increased yield, decreased risk, and increased the magnitude of SB at the end of the simulation period. However, these advantages came at the expense of greater interannual variation in yield. Constant catch control rules greatly underperformed constant U control rules in terms of magnitude in yield; however, they did reduce interannual variation in yield compared to constant U control rules. Furthermore, conditional versions of constant catch control rules (i.e., threshold stock sizes below which the catch limit was reduced) mitigated risks of staying at low stock size.

Thunder Bay