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Gap Analysis -A geographic approach to planning for biological diversity

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) —a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation’s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify “gaps” in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale.

GAP Bulletin

Effects of nonmotorized recreation on ungulates in the western United States—A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of science syntheses to support National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analyses. This report synthesizes science information about the potential effects of nonmotorized recreation on ungulates in the western United States. We conducted a structured literature search to find published science, data, and analysis methods about the characteristics of nonmotorized recreation, ungulate exposure and response to nonmotorized recreation, and approaches to mitigate negative effects of nonmotorized recreation on ungulates. The sections of the report align with standard elements of the NEPA analysis process. We found that timing, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of nonmotorized recreation are important factors to understand when assessing effects of recreation on ungulates. Several aspects of ungulate biology, which vary by species, population, and individual, affect ungulate susceptibility to effects from recreation, including diet, migration and movement, and seasonal biology. Techniques for assessing effects include basic spatial analyses based on buffers around trails and recreation sites and more technical analytical methods based on displacement or avoidance of recreation sites. Options for mitigating negative effects of nonmotorized recreation on ungulates include timing and type-of-use restrictions, recreator education, and project design features to avoid human-ungulate conflicts. Public land managers can use this report by incorporating it by reference in NEPA analyses or as a general reference to find literature or identify gaps in the literature about the effects of noise from nonmotorized recreation on ungulates.

Scientific Investigations Report

Citizen science can improve conservation science, natural resource management, and environmental protection

Citizen science has advanced science for hundreds of years, contributed to many peer-reviewed articles, and informed land management decisions and policies across the United States. Over the last 10 years, citizen science has grown immensely in the United States and many other countries. Here, we show how citizen science is a powerful tool for tackling many of the challenges faced in the field of conservation biology. We describe the two interwoven paths by which citizen science can improve conservation efforts, natural resource management, and environmental protection. The first path includes building scientific knowledge, while the other path involves informing policy and encouraging public action. We explore how citizen science is currently used and describe the investments needed to create a citizen science program. We find that: Citizen science already contributes substantially to many domains of science, including conservation, natural resource, and environmental science. Citizen science informs natural resource management, environmental protection, and policymaking and fosters public input and engagement. Many types of projects can benefit from citizen science, but one must be careful to match the needs for science and public involvement with the right type of citizen science project and the right method of public participation. Citizen science is a rigorous process of scientific discovery, indistinguishable from conventional science apart from the participation of volunteers. When properly designed, carried out, and evaluated, citizen science can provide sound science, efficiently generate high-quality data, and help solve problems.

Biological Conservation

GAP Analysis Bulletin Number 15

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) <http://gapanalysis.nbii.gov> is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) <http://www.nbii.gov>?a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation?s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify ?gaps? in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale. For more information, contact: John Mosesso National GAP Director 703-648-4079 Kevin Gergely National GAP Operations Manager 208-885-3565

GAP Bulletin

Ten new insights in climate science 2025

Interdisciplinary understanding is vital for delivering sound climate policy advice. However, navigating the ever-growing and increasingly diverse scholarly literature on climate change is challenging for any individual researcher. This annual synthesis highlights and explains recent advances across a variety of fields of climate change research. This year, the 10 insights focus on: (1) the record-warmth of 2023/2024 and the elevated Earth energy imbalance; (2) acceleration of ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves; (3) northern land carbon sinks under strain; (4) reinforcing feedback between biodiversity loss and climate change; (5) accelerated depletion of groundwater; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) global income losses and labour productivity declines; (8) strategic scaling of CDR; (9) integrity challenges in carbon credit markets and emerging responses; and (10) effective policy mixes for emissions reductions. The insights have been written to be accessible to researchers from different fields, serving as entry-points to specific topics, as well as providing an overview of the evolving landscape of climate change research. In the final section, the insights are used to develop overarching policy-relevant messages. This paper provides the basis for a science-policy report that was shared with all Party delegations ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

Global Sustainability

Status and interconnections of selected environmental issues in the global coastal zones

This study focuses on assessing the state of population distribution, land cover distribution, biodiversity hotspots, and protected areas in global coastal zones. The coastal zone is defined as land within 100 km of the coastline. This study attempts to answer such questions as: how crowded are the coastal zones, what is the pattern of land cover distribution in these areas, how much of these areas are designated as protected areas, what is the state of the biodiversity hotspots, and what are the interconnections between people and coastal environment. This study uses globally consistent and comprehensive geospatial datasets based on remote sensing and other sources. The application of Geographic Information System (GIS) layering methods and consistent datasets has made it possible to identify and quantify selected coastal zones environmental issues and their interconnections. It is expected that such information provide a scientific basis for global coastal zones management and assist in policy formulations at the national and international levels.

Ambio

Idaho's surface-water-quality monitoring program: results from five sites sampled during water years 1990-93

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, Division of Environmental Quality, implemented a statewide water-quality monitoring program in response to Idaho's antidegradation policy as required by the Clean Water Act. The program objective is to provide water-quality managers with a coordinated statewide network to detect trends in surface-water quality. The monitoring program includes the collection and analysis of samples from 56 sites on the Bear, Clearwater, Kootenai, Pend Oreille, Salmon, Snake, and Spokane Rivers and their tributaries (fig. 1). Samples are collected every year at 5 sites (annual sites) in drainage basins where long-term water-quality management is practiced, every other year at 19 sites (biennial sites) in basins where land and water uses change slowly, and every third year at 32 sites (triennial sites) where future development may affect water quality. Each year, 25 of the 56 sites are sampled. This report discusses results of sampling at five annual sites. During water years 1990-93 (October 1, 1989, through September 30, 1993), samples were collected six times per year at the five annual sites (fig. 1). Onsite analyses were made for discharge, specific conductance, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, bacteria (fecal coliform and fecal streptococci), and alkalinity. Laboratory analyses were made for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and suspended sediment. Suspended sediment, nitrate, fecal coliform, trace elements, and specific conductance were used to characterize surface-water quality. Because concentrations of all trace elements except zinc were near detection limits, only zinc is discussed.

Idaho

Simulation of flow and eutrophication in the central Salem River, New Jersey

The central Salem River in New Jersey is subject to periods of water-quality impairment, marked by elevated concentrations of phosphorus and chlorophyll- a , and low concentrations of and large diurnal swings in concentrations of dissolved oxygen. These seasonal eutrophic conditions are controlling factors for water quality in lower reaches, where the river is more lacustrine than in upper reaches, as a result of downstream damming. This biological productivity is supported by nutrient wash-off from agricultural areas in the surrounding watershed. To investigate this impairment, flow measurement and water-quality sampling were conducted during 2007–08 in support of development of a one-dimensional surface-water-quality model that simulates nutrient cycling and transformation processes. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) to develop a receiving-water-quality model of the central Salem River between Woodstown and Deepwater, New Jersey, from April 2007 to October 2008. The main-stem river and largest tributary were simulated. In the flow model, kinematic wave flow is used to simulate flow in upper reaches and ponded weir flow is used to simulate flow in lower reaches. The water-quality model makes use of a mass-balance equation to simulate the fate and transport of nutrients, phytoplankton chlorophyll- a , dissolved oxygen, and oxygen demands (an indicator rather than a substance) in the river. Model input included channel characteristics, boundary conditions for flow and water quality, environmental parameters, vertical dispersion coefficients, settling rates, and kinetic constants. Inputs were estimated where field data were lacking, notably for tributary flows and nutrient loads. The model was calibrated to observed flow variables and concentrations of dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll- a , and nutrients at sampling locations, with emphasis on growing-season conditions. Calibration was achieved through graphical and statistical comparison of simulated results to observed data. Sensitivity analyses were performed, and model limitations and applicability were evaluated. Simulated results closely matched observed data in most cases, although some were overpredicted slightly. The most important causes of overprediction were estimated tributary flows for the flow model and estimated tributary watershed loads for the water-quality model. Calibration of dissolved-oxygen concentrations was closer, and predicted diurnal variations were consistent with high algal photosynthesis/respiration, although lack of continuous dissolved-oxygen data precluded verifying these predictions. A similar caveat applies to predicted diurnal variations in chlorophyll- a . Simulated limitations on algal growth were consistent with those based on observed data and indicated phosphorus was the main limiting nutrient, except during certain periods when nitrogen was limiting. Two water-quality management scenarios were simulated with the model to assess the effect of point- and nonpoint-source nutrient reductions on water-quality conditions in the river. Scenarios involved (1) a return of watershed land use to predevelopment natural conditions and (2) an extreme reduction in nutrient input. Although the extreme-nutrient-reduction scenario yielded improvements in water quality, the natural-conditions scenario yielded the largest improvements as indicated by minimal violations of surface-water-quality standards or thresholds. However, years may be needed to attain the full benefit of these management scenarios as a result of accumulation of phosphorus and organic carbon in riverbed sediments in lacustrine reaches. The results of this study indicate that the quality of water in the central Salem River will improve if management policies that mitigate the effects of nutrient-loading practices in the watershed, particularly those related to agriculture, are implemented.

New Jersey

Establishing a nationwide baseline of historical burn-severity data to support monitoring of trends in wildfire effects and national fire policies

There is a need to provide agency leaders, elected officials, and the general public with summary information regarding the effects of large wildfires. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness and effects of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act. One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a 6-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS/EROS Data Center and USDA-FS/ Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires occurring from 1984 to 2010. Only fires that are greater than 500 ac in the East, and 1,000 ac in the West will be included. We anticipate mapping a total of more than 9,000 historical fires and fires that occur during the course of the study. The MTBS project will generate burn-severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, State, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range of current and future resource threats. For example, fire severity data along with associated biophysical characteristics provide an analytical basis for assessing risk from invasive species as well as native insects and pathogens. All data and results will be distributed to the public via a Web interface.

General Technical Report

Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center--providing comprehensive earth science for complex societal issues

Minerals in the environment and products manufactured from mineral materials are all around us and we use and come into contact with them every day. They impact our way of life and the health of all that lives. Minerals are critical to the Nation's economy and knowing where future mineral resources will come from is important for sustaining the Nation's economy and national security. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program (MRP) provides scientific information for objective resource assessments and unbiased research results on mineral resource potential, production and consumption statistics, as well as environmental consequences of mining. The MRP conducts this research to provide information needed for land planners and decisionmakers about where mineral commodities are known and suspected in the earth's crust and about the environmental consequences of extracting those commodities. As part of the MRP scientists of the Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center (WMERSC or 'Center' herein) coordinate the development of national, geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral-resource databases and the migration of existing databases to standard models and formats that are available to both internal and external users. The unique expertise developed by Center scientists over many decades in response to mineral-resource-related issues is now in great demand to support applications such as public health research and remediation of environmental hazards that result from mining and mining-related activities. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center Results of WMERSC research provide timely and unbiased analyses of minerals and inorganic materials to (1) improve stewardship of public lands and resources; (2) support national and international economic and security policies; (3) sustain prosperity and improve our quality of life; and (4) protect and improve public health, safety, and environmental quality. The MRP supports approximately 40 USGS research specialists who utilize cooperative agreements with universities, industry, and other governmental agencies to support their collaborative research and information exchange. Scientists of the WMERSC study how and where non-fuel mineral resources form and are concentrated in the earth's crust, where mineral resources might be found in the future, and how mineral materials interact with the environment to affect human and ecosystem health. Natural systems (ecosystems) are complex - our understanding of how ecosystems operate requires collecting and synthesizing large amounts of geologic, geochemical, biologic, hydrologic, and meteorological information. Scientists in the Center strive to understand the interplay of various processes and how they affect the structure, composition, and health of ecosystems. Such understanding, which is then summarized in publicly available reports, is used to address and solve a wide variety of issues that are important to society and the economy. WMERSC scientists have extensive national and international experience in these scientific specialties and capabilities - they have collaborated with many Federal, State, and local agencies; with various private sector organizations; as well as with foreign countries and organizations. Nearly every scientific and societal challenge requires a different combination of scientific skills and capabilities. With their breadth of scientific specialties and capabilities, the scientists of the WMERSC can provide scientifically sound approaches to a wide range of societal challenges and issues. The following sections describe examples of important issues that have been addressed by scientists in the Center, the methods employed, and the relevant conclusions. New directions are inevitable as societal needs change over time. Scientists of the WMERSC have a diverse set of skills and capabilities and are proficient in the collection and integration of

Circular

Method for estimating pesticide use for county areas of the conterminous United States

Information on the amount and distribution of pesticide compounds used throughout the United States is essential to evaluate the relation between water quality and pesticide use. This information is the basis of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program studies of the effects of pesticides on water quality in 57 major hydrologic systems, or study units, located throughout the conterminous United States. To support these studies, a method was devised to estimate county pesticide use for the conterminous United States by combining (1) state-level information on pesticide use rates available from the National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy, and (2) county-level information on harvested crop acreage from the Census of Agriculture. The average annual pesticide use, the total amount of pesticides applied (in pounds), and the corresponding area treated (in acres) were compiled for the 208 pesticide compounds that are applied to crops in the conterminous United States. Pesticide use was ranked by compound and crop on the basis of the amount of each compound applied to 86 selected crops. Tabular summaries of pesticide use for NAWQA study units and for the Nation were prepared, along with maps that show the distribution of selected pesticides to agricultural land.

Open-File Report

The Earth Resources Observation Systems data center's training technical assistance, and applications research activities

The Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center (EDO, administered by the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior, provides remotely sensed data to the user community and offers a variety of professional services to further the understanding and use of remote sensing technology. EDC reproduces and sells photographic and electronic copies of satellite images of areas throughout the world. Other products include aerial photographs collected by 16 organizations, including the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Primary users of the remotely sensed data are Federal, State, and municipal government agencies, universities, foreign nations, and private industries. The professional services available at EDC are primarily directed at integrating satellite and aircraft remote sensing technology into the programs of the Department of the Interior and its cooperators. This is accomplished through formal training workshops, user assistance, cooperative demonstration projects, and access to equipment and capabilities in an advanced data analysis laboratory. In addition, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, universities, and the general public can get assistance from the EDC Staff. Since 1973, EDC has contributed to the accelerating growth in development and operational use of remotely sensed data for land resource problems through its role as educator and by conducting basic and applied remote sensing applications research. As remote sensing technology continues to evolve, EDC will continue to respond to the increasing demand for timely information on remote sensing applications. Questions most often asked about EDC's research and training programs include: Who may attend an EDC remote sensing training course? Specifically, what is taught? Who may cooperate with EDC on remote sensing projects? Are interpretation services provided on a service basis? This report attempts to define the goals and objectives of and policies on the following EDC services: Training Program. User Assistance. Data Analysis Laboratory. Cooperative Demonstration Projects. Research Projects.

Open-File Report

Wildfire risk information sources and the acceptability of fuels treatments near select WUI communities in the Western United States

Fuels treatments intended to reduce fuel loads and improve forest health on public lands offer one way to reduce wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where the natural and built environments meet. However, for fuels treatment implementation to be successful, it must comply with regulatory and scientific standards and be supported by local communities, as lack of acceptance can lead to alterations, delays, or abandonment. To foster support, public land managers can engage directly with residents in communities near treatment areas through various communication channels or engage indirectly through trusted local partners. This research uses paired household survey and observed parcel-level wildfire risk assessment data to investigate wildfire risk information sources' role in the acceptability of fuels treatment approaches on public lands near select WUI communities in the Western United States. We find that information deemed useful from sources is often positively correlated with acceptability, while information deemed not useful is sometimes negatively correlated. Local sources of information tend to be widely received, perceived as useful, and have positive correlations with acceptability, while nonlocal sources vary in their receipt, perceived usefulness, and correlations with acceptability. Public land managers, particularly those from national organizations, may benefit from leveraging and aligning messaging with trusted local partners. Developing fuels treatment plans that consider existing local sentiments may facilitate public trust in managers and acceptability of treatments.

Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming

Introduction to this special issue on ocean acidification: the pathway from science to policy

Ocean acidification (OA) is a progressive decrease in the pH of seawater over decades, caused primarily by uptake of excess atmospheric CO2 and accompanied by changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. Scientific studies designed to examine the effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on global carbon fluxes have also led to the detection of OA. During the last decade, this phenomenon has surged to the attention of not only scientists but also policymakers and the public. OA chemistry is well understood and follows first principles of acid-base chemistry (e.g., Gattuso and Hansson, 2011; Box 1 in McLaughlin et al.). Today, total anthropogenic release of CO2 exceeds nine petagrams of carbon annually, with ~85% coming directly from industrial sources and ~15% from changes in land use. The three major sinks for this CO2 are: ~46% of CO2 emitted remains in the atmosphere, ~29% is absorbed by the terrestrial biosphere, and the ocean absorbs the remaining ~26% (Le Qu&eacute;r&eacute; et al., 2014), resulting in OA. Since the Industrial Revolution, global average surface ocean pH has dropped 0.1 unit (about a 30% increase in acidity; IPCC, 2013), and it is expected to drop another 0.3 to 0.4 units by 2100 (100-150% increase in acidity) if CO2 emissions continue in a business-as-usual scenario (Orr et al., 2005; IPCC, 2013). Some areas of the ocean, such as coastal regions, upwelling zones, and polar seas, may be subjected to much greater chemical perturbations from OA than indicated by such globally averaged values (e.g., Feely et al., 2008; Mathis et al.).

Oceanography

Science-Based Strategies for Sustaining Coral Ecosystems

Coral ecosystems and their natural capital are at risk. Greenhouse gas emissions, overfishing, and harmful land-use practices are damaging our coral reefs. Overwhelming scientific evidence indicates that the threats are serious, and if they are left unchecked, the ecological and social consequences will be significant and widespread. Although the primary stressors to coral ecosystems are known, science-based strategies are needed to more accurately explain natural processes and forecast human-induced change. Collaborations among managers and scientists and enhanced mapping, monitoring, research, and modeling can lead to effective mitigation plans. U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their partners assess coral ecosystem history, ecology, vulnerability, and resiliency and provide study results to decisionmakers who may devise policies to sustain coral resources and the essential goods and services they provide.

Fact Sheet

USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts: Shoreline change research

The demands of increasing human population in the coastal zone create competition with coastal habitat preservation and with recreational and commercial uses of the coast and nearshore waters. As climate changes over the coming century, these problems facing coastal communities will likely worsen. Good management and policy decision-making require baseline information on the rates, trends, and scientific understanding of the processes of coastal change on a regional to national scale. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is engaged in a research project of national scope to measure, report, and interpret historical shoreline change along open-ocean coasts of the United States. One of the primary goals of this project is to understand shoreline change hazards using methods that are comparable from one area of the country to another and that will allow for future, repeatable analyses of shoreline movement, coastal erosion, and land loss.

Fact Sheet

Natural resource mitigation, adaptation and research needs related to climate change in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert

This report synthesizes the knowledge, opinions, and concerns of many Federal and State land managers, scientists, stakeholders, and partners from a workshop, held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20-22, 2010. Land managers, research scientists, and resource specialists identified common concerns regarding the potential effects of climate change on public lands and natural resources in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert and developed recommendations for mitigation, adaptation, and research needs. Water and, conversely, the effects of drought emerged as a common theme in all breakout sessions on terrestrial and aquatic species at risk, managing across boundaries, monitoring, and ecosystem services. Climate change models for the southwestern deserts predict general warming and drying with increasing precipitation variability year to year. Scientists noted that under these changing conditions the past may no longer be a guide to the future in which managers envision increasing conflicts between human water uses and sustaining ecosystems. Increasing environmental stress also is expected as a consequence of shifting ecosystem boundaries and species distributions, expansion of non-native species, and decoupling of biotic mutualisms, leading to increasingly unstable biologic communities. Managers uniformly expressed a desire to work across management and agency boundaries at a landscape scale but conceded that conflicting agency missions and budgetary constraints often impede collaboration. More and better science is needed to cope with the effects of climate change but, perhaps even more important is the application of science to management issues using the methods of adaptive management based on long-term monitoring to assess the merits of management actions. Access to data is essential for science-based land management. Basic inventories, spatial databases, baseline condition assessments, data quality assurance, and data sharing were identified as top information priorities by all participants at this workshop. Optimizing the utility of ecosystem monitoring data will require standardizing monitoring protocols across agencies. Better communication among researchers and managers and cooperation through partnerships to manage resources across boundaries were emphasized as necessary for adapting to changing climatic conditions. However, even these strategies may be insufficient unless policy mandates, agency missions, and funding are coordinated at a high level.

Scientific Investigations Report

Incorporating incorporating economic models into seasonal pool conservation planning

Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine have adopted regulatory zones around seasonal (vernal) pools to conserve terrestrial habitat for pool-breeding amphibians. Most amphibians require access to distinct seasonal habitats in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems because of their complex life histories. These habitat requirements make them particularly vulnerable to land uses that destroy habitat or limit connectivity (or permeability) among habitats. Regulatory efforts focusing on breeding pools without consideration of terrestrial habitat needs will not ensure the persistence of pool-breeding amphibians. We used GIS to combine a discrete-choice, parcel-scale economic model of land conversion with a landscape permeability model based on known habitat requirements of wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in Maine (USA) to examine permeability among habitat elements for alternative future scenarios. The economic model predicts future landscapes under different subdivision open space and vernal pool regulatory requirements. Our model showed that even “no build” permit zones extending 76 m (250 ft) outward from the pool edge were insufficient to assure permeability among required habitat elements. Furthermore, effectiveness of permit zones may be inconsistent due to interactions with other growth management policies, highlighting the need for local and state planning for the long-term persistence of pool-breeding amphibians in developing landscapes.

Maine