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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Seasonal circulation over the Catalan inner-shelf (northwest Mediterranean Sea)

This study characterizes the seasonal cycle of the Catalan inner-shelf circulation using observations and complementary numerical results. The relation between seasonal circulation and forcing mechanisms is explored through the depth-averaged momentum balance, for the period between May 2010 and April 2011, when velocity observations were partially available. The monthly-mean along-shelf flow is mainly controlled by the along-shelf pressure gradient and by surface and bottom stresses. During summer, fall, and winter, the along-shelf momentum balance is dominated by the barotropic pressure gradient and local winds. During spring, both wind stress and pressure gradient act in the same direction and are compensated by bottom stress. In the cross-shelf direction the dominant forces are in geostrophic balance, consistent with dynamic altimetry data.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2013

Photometric properties of Mars soils analogs

We have measured the bidirectional reflectance of analogs of dry, wet, and frozen Martian soils over a wide range of phase angles in the visible spectral range. All samples were produced from two geologic samples: the standard JSC Mars-1 soil simulant and Hawaiian basaltic sand. In a first step, experiments were conducted with the dry samples to investigate the effects of surface texture. Comparisons with results independently obtained by different teams with similar samples showed a satisfying reproducibility of the photometric measurements as well as a noticeable influence of surface textures resulting from different sample preparation procedures. In a second step, water was introduced to produce wet and frozen samples and their photometry investigated. Optical microscope images of the samples provided information about their microtexture. Liquid water, even in relatively low amount, resulted in the disappearance of the backscattering peak and the appearance of a forward-scattering peak whose intensity increases with the amount of water. Specular reflections only appeared when water was present in an amount large enough to allow water to form a film at the surface of the sample. Icy samples showed a wide variability of photometric properties depending on the physical properties of the water ice. We discuss the implications of these measurements in terms of the expected photometric behavior of the Martian surface, from equatorial to circum-polar regions. In particular, we propose some simple photometric criteria to improve the identification of wet and/or icy soils from multiple observations under different geometries.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2013

Evaluation of a new model of aeolian transport in the presence of vegetation

Aeolian transport is an important characteristic of many arid and semiarid regions worldwide that affects dust emission and ecosystem processes. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate a recent model of aeolian transport in the presence of vegetation. This approach differs from previous models by accounting for how vegetation affects the distribution of shear velocity on the surface rather than merely calculating the average effect of vegetation on surface shear velocity or simply using empirical relationships. Vegetation, soil, and meteorological data at 65 field sites with measurements of horizontal aeolian flux were collected from the Western United States. Measured fluxes were tested against modeled values to evaluate model performance, to obtain a set of optimum model parameters, and to estimate the uncertainty in these parameters. The same field data were used to model horizontal aeolian flux using three other schemes. Our results show that the model can predict horizontal aeolian flux with an approximate relative error of 2.1 and that further empirical corrections can reduce the approximate relative error to 1.0. The level of error is within what would be expected given uncertainties in threshold shear velocity and wind speed at our sites. The model outperforms the alternative schemes both in terms of approximate relative error and the number of sites at which threshold shear velocity was exceeded. These results lend support to an understanding of the physics of aeolian transport in which (1) vegetation's impact on transport is dependent upon the distribution of vegetation rather than merely its average lateral cover and (2) vegetation impacts surface shear stress locally by depressing it in the immediate lee of plants rather than by changing the bulk surface's threshold shear velocity. Our results also suggest that threshold shear velocity is exceeded more than might be estimated by single measurements of threshold shear stress and roughness length commonly associated with vegetated surfaces, highlighting the variation of threshold shear velocity with space and time in real landscapes.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2013

Field measurement of basal forces generated by erosive debris flows

It has been proposed that debris flows cut bedrock valleys in steeplands worldwide, but field measurements needed to constrain mechanistic models of this process remain sparse due to the difficulty of instrumenting natural flows. Here we present and analyze measurements made using an automated sensor network, erosion bolts, and a 15.24 cm by 15.24 cm force plate installed in the bedrock channel floor of a steep catchment. These measurements allow us to quantify the distribution of basal forces from natural debris‒flow events that incised bedrock. Over the 4 year monitoring period, 11 debris‒flow events scoured the bedrock channel floor. No clear water flows were observed. Measurements of erosion bolts at the beginning and end of the study indicated that the bedrock channel floor was lowered by 36 to 64 mm. The basal force during these erosive debris‒flow events had a large‒magnitude (up to 21 kN, which was approximately 50 times larger than the concurrent time‒averaged mean force), high‒frequency (greater than 1 Hz) fluctuating component. We interpret these fluctuations as flow particles impacting the bed. The resulting variability in force magnitude increased linearly with the time‒averaged mean basal force. Probability density functions of basal normal forces were consistent with a generalized Pareto distribution, rather than the exponential distribution that is commonly found in experimental and simulated monodispersed granular flows and which has a lower probability of large forces. When the bed sediment thickness covering the force plate was greater than ~ 20 times the median bed sediment grain size, no significant fluctuations about the time‒averaged mean force were measured, indicating that a thin layer of sediment (~ 5 cm in the monitored cases) can effectively shield the subjacent bed from erosive impacts. Coarse‒grained granular surges and water‒rich, intersurge flow had very similar basal force distributions despite differences in appearance and bulk‒flow density. These results demonstrate that debris flows can have strong control on rates of steepland evolution and contribute to a foundation needed for modeling debris‒flow incision stochastically.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2013

Linking morphodynamic response with sediment mass balance on the Colorado River in Marble Canyon: issues of scale, geomorphic setting, and sampling design

Measurements of morphologic change are often used to infer sediment mass balance. Such measurements may, however, result in gross errors when morphologic changes over short reaches are extrapolated to predict changes in sediment mass balance for long river segments. This issue is investigated by examination of morphologic change and sediment influx and efflux for a 100 km segment of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona. For each of four monitoring intervals within a 7 year study period, the direction of sand-storage response within short morphologic monitoring reaches was consistent with the flux-based sand mass balance. Both budgeting methods indicate that sand storage was stable or increased during the 7 year period. Extrapolation of the morphologic measurements outside the monitoring reaches does not, however, provide a reasonable estimate of the magnitude of sand-storage change for the 100 km study area. Extrapolation results in large errors, because there is large local variation in site behavior driven by interactions between the flow and local bed topography. During the same flow regime and reach-average sediment supply, some locations accumulate sand while others evacuate sand. The interaction of local hydraulics with local channel geometry exerts more control on local morphodynamic response than sand supply over an encompassing river segment. Changes in the upstream supply of sand modify bed responses but typically do not completely offset the effect of local hydraulics. Thus, accurate sediment budgets for long river segments inferred from reach-scale morphologic measurements must incorporate the effect of local hydraulics in a sampling design or avoid extrapolation altogether.

Arizona↗
USGS2013

Effects of riparian vegetation on topographic change during a large flood event, Rio Puerco, New Mexico, USA

The spatial distribution of riparian vegetation can strongly influence the geomorphic evolution of dryland rivers during large floods. We present the results of an airborne lidar differencing study that quantifies the topographic change that occurred along a 12 km reach of the Lower Rio Puerco, New Mexico, during an extreme event in 2006. Extensive erosion of the channel banks took place immediately upstream of the study area, where tamarisk and sandbar willow had been removed. Within the densely vegetated study reach, we measure a net volumetric change of 578,050 ± ∼ 490,000 m 3 , with 88.3% of the total aggradation occurring along the floodplain and channel and 76.7% of the erosion focusing on the vertical valley walls. The sediment derived from the devegetated reach deposited within the first 3.6 km of the study area, with depth decaying exponentially with distance downstream. Elsewhere, floodplain sediments were primarily sourced from the erosion of valley walls. Superimposed on this pattern are the effects of vegetation and valley morphology on sediment transport. Sediment thickness is seen to be uniform among sandbar willows and highly variable within tamarisk groves. These reach-scale patterns of sedimentation observed in the lidar differencing likely reflect complex interactions of vegetation, flow, and sediment at the scale of patches to individual plants.

New Mexico↗
USGS2013

The storage time, age, and erosion hazard of laterally accreted sediment on the floodplain of a simulated meandering river

A sediment particle traversing the fluvial system may spend the majority of the total transit time at rest, stored in various sedimentary deposits. Floodplains are among the most important of these deposits, with the potential to store large amounts of sediment for long periods of time. The virtual velocity of a sediment grain depends strongly on the amount of time spent in storage, but little is known about sediment storage times. Measurements of floodplain vegetation age have suggested that storage times are exponentially distributed, a case that arises when all the sediment on a floodplain is equally vulnerable to erosion in a given interval. This assumption has been incorporated into sediment routing models, despite some evidence that younger sediment is more likely to be eroded from floodplains than older sediment. We investigate the relationship between sediment age and erosion, which we term the “erosion hazard,” with a model of a meandering river that constructs its floodplain by lateral accretion. We find that the erosion hazard decreases with sediment age, leading to a storage time distribution that is not exponential. We propose an alternate model that requires that channel motion is approximately diffusive and results in a heavy tailed distribution of storage time. The model applies to timescales over which the direction of channel motion is uncorrelated. We speculate that the lower end of this range of time is set by the meander cutoff timescale and the upper end is set by processes that limit the width of the meander belt.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2013

Inferring tidal wetland stability from channel sediment fluxes: observations and a conceptual model

Anthropogenic and climatic forces have modified the geomorphology of tidal wetlands over a range of timescales. Changes in land use, sediment supply, river flow, storminess, and sea level alter the layout of tidal channels, intertidal flats, and marsh plains; these elements define wetland complexes. Diagnostically, measurements of net sediment fluxes through tidal channels are high-temporal resolution, spatially integrated quantities that indicate (1) whether a complex is stable over seasonal timescales and (2) what mechanisms are leading to that state. We estimated sediment fluxes through tidal channels draining wetland complexes on the Blackwater and Transquaking Rivers, Maryland, USA. While the Blackwater complex has experienced decades of degradation and been largely converted to open water, the Transquaking complex has persisted as an expansive, vegetated marsh. The measured net export at the Blackwater complex (1.0 kg/s or 0.56 kg/m 2 /yr over the landward marsh area) was caused by northwesterly winds, which exported water and sediment on the subtidal timescale; tidally forced net fluxes were weak and precluded landward transport of suspended sediment from potential seaward sources. Though wind forcing also exported sediment at the Transquaking complex, strong tidal forcing and proximity to a turbidity maximum led to an import of sediment (0.031 kg/s or 0.70 kg/m 2 /yr). This resulted in a spatially averaged accretion of 3.9 mm/yr, equaling the regional relative sea level rise. Our results suggest that in areas where seaward sediment supply is dominant, seaward wetlands may be more capable of withstanding sea level rise over the short term than landward wetlands. We propose a conceptual model to determine a complex's tendency toward stability or instability based on sediment source, wetland channel location, and transport mechanisms. Wetlands with a reliable portfolio of sources and transport mechanisms appear better suited to offset natural and anthropogenic loss.

Maryl↗
USGS2013

Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km 2 ) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km 2 ). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

California;Colorado↗
USGS2013

Nitrate in watersheds: straight from soils to streams?

Human activities are rapidly increasing the global supply of reactive N and substantially altering the structure and hydrologic connectivity of managed ecosystems. There is long-standing recognition that N must be removed along hydrologic flowpaths from uplands to streams, yet it has proven difficult to assess the generality of this removal across ecosystem types, and whether these patterns are influenced by land-use change. To assess how well upland nitrate (NO 3 - ) loss is reflected in stream export, we gathered information from >50 watershed biogeochemical studies that reported nitrate concentrations ([NO 3 - ]) for stream water and for either upslope soil solution or groundwater NO 3 - to examine whether stream export of NO3- accurately reflects upland NO 3 - losses. In this dataset, soil solution and streamwater [NO 3 - ] were correlated across 40 undisturbed forest watersheds, with streamwater [NO 3 - ] typically half (median = 50%) soil solution [NO 3 - ]. A similar relationship was seen in 10 disturbed forest watersheds. However, for 12 watersheds with significant agricultural or urban development, the intercept and slope were both significantly higher than the relationship seen in forest watersheds. Differences in concentration between soil solution or groundwater and stream water may be attributed to biological uptake, microbial processes including denitrification, and/or preferential flow routing. The results of this synthesis are consistent with the hypotheses that undisturbed watersheds have a significant capacity to remove nitrate after it passes below the rooting zone and that land use changes tend to alter the efficiency or the length of watershed flowpaths, leading to reductions in nitrate removal and increased stream nitrate concentrations.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2013

Emissions of carbon dioxide and methane from a headwater stream network of interior Alaska

Boreal ecosystems store significant quantities of organic carbon (C) that may be vulnerable to degradation as a result of a warming climate. Despite their limited coverage on the landscape, streams play a significant role in the processing, gaseous emission, and downstream export of C, and small streams are thought to be particularly important because of their close connection with the surrounding landscape. However, ecosystem carbon studies do not commonly incorporate the role of the aquatic conduit. We measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) concentrations and emissions in a headwater stream network of interior Alaska underlain by permafrost to assess the potential role of stream gas emissions in the regional carbon balance. First-order streams exhibited the greatest variability in fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4, and the greatest mean p CO 2 . High-resolution time series of stream p CO 2 and discharge at two locations on one first-order stream showed opposing p CO 2 responses to storm events, indicating the importance of hydrologic flowpaths connecting CO 2 -rich soils with surface waters. Repeated longitudinal surveys on the stream showed consistent areas of elevated p CO 2 and p CH 4 , indicative of discrete hydrologic flowpaths delivering soil water and groundwater having varying chemistry. Up-scaled basin estimates of stream gas emissions suggest that streams may contribute significantly to catchment-wide CH 4 emissions. Overall, our results indicate that while stream-specific gas emission rates are disproportionately high relative to the terrestrial landscape, both stream surface area and catchment normalized emission rates were lower than those documented for the Yukon River Basin as a whole. This may be due to limitations of C sources and/or C transport to surface waters.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2013

Hydrologic controls on the transport and cycling of carbon and nitrogen in a boreal catchment underlain by continuous permafrost

Boreal ecosystems represent a large carbon (C) reservoir and a substantial source of greenhouse gases. Hydrologic conditions dictate whether C leached from boreal soils is processed in catchments or flushed to less productive environments via the stream. This study quantified hydrologic and biogeochemical C loss from a boreal catchment underlain by frozen silt, where flowpaths may deepen as the active layer thaws over the summer. We hypothesized a decrease in the magnitude of C mineralization over the summer associated with changing flowpaths and decreasing hydrologic connectivity, organic matter lability, and nitrogen (N) availability. Conservative tracers were used to partition C and N loss between catchment export and biogeochemical processing. Coupling tracers with tributary and porewater chemistry indicated C and N cycling in soil flowpaths, with an exponential decrease over the summer. Nitrate was primarily reduced in hillslope flowpaths and the lack of N reaching the stream appeared to limit C mineralization. Stream export accounted for the greatest loss of C, removing 247 and 113 mol hr −1 in the early and late summer, respectively. Reactivity was related to hydrologic connectivity between the soils and stream, which was greatest early in the summer and following a large flood. While a warming climate may increase storage potential in thawed soils, the early‐season flush of labile material and late‐season runoff through mineral flowpaths may maintain high C export rates. Therefore, we highlight physical export as a dominant cause of aqueous C loss from silty catchments as the Arctic continues to thaw.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2013

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for carbon cycle studies

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations in modeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the implications of those options. We calibrated the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model on a hierarchy of three vegetation classification levels for the Alaskan boreal forest: species level, plant-functional-type level (PFT level), and biome level, and we examined the differences in simulated carbon dynamics. Species-specific field-based estimates were directly used to parameterize the model for species-level simulations, while weighted averages based on species percent cover were used to generate estimates for PFT- and biome-level model parameterization. We found that calibrated key ecosystem process parameters differed substantially among species and overlapped for species that are categorized into different PFTs. Our analysis of parameter sets suggests that the PFT-level parameterizations primarily reflected the dominant species and that functional information of some species were lost from the PFT-level parameterizations. The biome-level parameterization was primarily representative of the needleleaf PFT and lost information on broadleaf species or PFT function. Our results indicate that PFT-level simulations may be potentially representative of the performance of species-level simulations while biome-level simulations may result in biased estimates. Improved theoretical and empirical justifications for grouping species into PFTs or biomes are needed to adequately represent the dynamics of ecosystem functioning and structure.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Lidar-derived estimate and uncertainty of carbon sink in successional phases of woody encroachment

Woody encroachment is a globally occurring phenomenon that contributes to the global carbon sink. The magnitude of this contribution needs to be estimated at regional and local scales to address uncertainties present in the global- and continental-scale estimates, and guide regional policy and management in balancing restoration activities, including removal of woody plants, with greenhouse gas mitigation goals. The objective of this study was to estimate carbon stored in various successional phases of woody encroachment. Using lidar measurements of individual trees, we present high-resolution estimates of aboveground carbon storage in juniper woodlands. Segmentation analysis of lidar point cloud data identified a total of 60,628 juniper tree crowns across four watersheds. Tree heights, canopy cover, and density derived from lidar were strongly correlated with field measurements of 2613 juniper stems measured in 85 plots (30 × 30 m). Aboveground total biomass of individual trees was estimated using a regression model with lidar-derived height and crown area as predictors (Adj. R 2 = 0.76, p < 0.001, RMSE = 0.58 kg). The predicted mean aboveground woody carbon storage for the study area was 677 g/m 2 . Uncertainty in carbon storage estimates was examined with a Monte Carlo approach that addressed major error sources. Ranges predicted with uncertainty analysis in the mean, individual tree, aboveground woody C, and associated standard deviation were 0.35 – 143.6 kg and 0.5 – 1.25 kg, respectively. Later successional phases of woody encroachment had, on average, twice the aboveground carbon relative to earlier phases. Woody encroachment might be more successfully managed and balanced with carbon storage goals by identifying priority areas in earlier phases of encroachment where intensive treatments are most effective.

Idaho↗
USGS2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn - and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO 2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn -eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

Bismark volcanic arc, New Britain Island, Ulawun v↗
USGS1999

Climatic impact of glacial cycle polar motion: Coupled oscillations of ice sheet mass and rotation pole position

Precessional motion of Earth's rotation axis relative to its orbit is a well-known source of long-period climatic variation. It is less well appreciated that growth and decay of polar ice sheets perturb the symmetry of the global mass distribution enough that the geographic location of the rotation axis will change by at least 15 km and possibly as much as 100 km during a single glacial cycle. This motion of the pole will change the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of temperatures. We present calculations, based on a diurnal average energy balance, which compare the summer and winter temperature anomalies due to a 1° decrease in obliquity with those due to a 1° motion of the rotation pole toward Hudson Bay. Both effects result in peak temperature perturbations of about 1° Celsius. The obliquity change primarily influences the amplitude of the seasonal cycle, while the polar motion primarily changes the annual mean temperatures. The polar motion induced temperature anomaly is such that it will act as a powerful negative feedback on ice sheet growth. We also explore the evolution of the coupled system composed of ice sheet mass and pole position. Oscillatory solutions result from the conflicting constraints of rotational and thermal stability. A positive mass anomaly on an otherwise featureless Earth is in rotational equilibrium only at the poles or the equator. The two polar equilibria are rotationally unstable, and the equatorial equilibrium, though rotationally stable, is thermally unstable. We find that with a plausible choice for the strength of coupling between the thermal and rotational systems, relatively modest external forcing can produce significant response at periods of 10 4 –10 6 years, but it strongly attenuates polar motion at longer periods. We suggest that these coupled oscillations may contribute to the observed dominance of 100 kyr glacial cycles since the mid-Pleistocene and will tend to stabilize geographic patterns that are suitable to glaciations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1999

Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the M w = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ∼470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate “fault-normal” compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (∼10°) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ∼15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a M L = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudogravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ∼3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San Andreas right stepover region and at least 15 km along-strike both to the SE and NW. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake may have nucleated within the San Andreas right stepover, which may help explain the bilateral nature of rupture of this event. Our analysis suggests two seismic hazards for the San Francisco Peninsula in addition to the hazard associated with a M = 7 to 8 strike-slip earthquake along the San Andreas fault: the potential for a M ≈ 6 normal-faulting earthquake just 5–8 km west of San Francisco and a M = 6+ thrust faulting event in the southern peninsula.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗