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Results for “Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface”

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USGS2015

Crustal deformation in the New Madrid seismic zone and the role of postseismic processes

Global Navigation Satellite System data across the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) in the central United States over the period from 2000 through 2014 are analyzed and modeled with several deformation mechanisms including the following: (1) creep on subsurface dislocations, (2) postseismic frictional afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation from the 1811–1812 and 1450 earthquakes in the NMSZ, and (3) regional strain. In agreement with previous studies, a dislocation creeping at about 4 mm/yr between 12 and 20 km depth along the downdip extension of the Reelfoot fault reproduces the observations well. We find that a dynamic model of postseismic frictional afterslip from the 1450 and February 1812 Reelfoot fault events can explain this creep. Kinematic and dynamic models involving the Cottonwood Grove fault provide minimal predictive power. This is likely due to the smaller size of the December 1811 event on the Cottonwood Grove fault and a distribution of stations better suited to constrain localized strain across the Reelfoot fault. Regional compressive strain across the NMSZ is found to be less than 3 × 10 −9 /yr. If much of the present-day surface deformation results from afterslip, it is likely that many of the earthquakes we see today in the NMSZ are aftershocks from the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes. Despite this conclusion, our results are consistent with observations and models of intraplate earthquake clustering. Given this and the recent paleoseismic history of the region, we suggest that seismic hazard is likely to remain significant.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2016

Volcano dome dynamics at Mount St. Helens: Deformation and intermittent subsidence monitored by seismicity and camera imagery pixel offsets

The surface deformation field measured at volcanic domes provides insights into the effects of magmatic processes, gravity- and gas-driven processes, and the development and distribution of internal dome structures. Here we study short-term dome deformation associated with earthquakes at Mount St. Helens, recorded by a permanent optical camera and seismic monitoring network. We use Digital Image Correlation (DIC) to compute the displacement field between successive images and compare the results to the occurrence and characteristics of seismic events during a 6 week period of dome growth in 2006. The results reveal that dome growth at Mount St. Helens was repeatedly interrupted by short-term meter-scale downward displacements at the dome surface, which were associated in time with low-frequency, large-magnitude seismic events followed by a tremor-like signal. The tremor was only recorded by the seismic stations closest to the dome. We find a correlation between the magnitudes of the camera-derived displacements and the spectral amplitudes of the associated tremor. We use the DIC results from two cameras and a high-resolution topographic model to derive full 3-D displacement maps, which reveals internal dome structures and the effect of the seismic activity on daily surface velocities. We postulate that the tremor is recording the gravity-driven response of the upper dome due to mechanical collapse or depressurization and fault-controlled slumping. Our results highlight the different scales and structural expressions during growth and disintegration of lava domes and the relationships between seismic and deformation signals.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Heat and mass transport in a vapor-dominated hydrothermal area in Yellowstone National Park, USA: Inferences from magnetic, electrical, electromagnetic, subsurface temperature and diffuse CO2 flux measurements

Vapor‐dominated hydrothermal systems are characterized by localized and elevated heat and gas flux. In these systems, steam and gas ascend from a boiling water reservoir, steam condenses beneath a low‐permeability cap layer, and liquid water descends, driven by gravity (“heat pipe” model). We combine magnetic, electromagnetic, and geoelectrical methods and CO 2 flux and subsurface temperature measurements in the Solfatara Plateau Thermal Area in the Yellowstone Caldera to address several fundamental questions: (1) What are the structural and/or lithological controls on heat and mass transport in vapor‐dominated areas? (2) What is the geometry and size of convecting multiphase thermal plumes? (3) Are thermal plumes associated with subsurface rock alteration and demagnetization? Magnetic and electromagnetic data inversions suggest an asymmetric 50‐ to 100‐m thick basin of glacial deposits with the thickest part adjacent to the margin of a rhyolite flow. The 3‐D electrical conductivity model in the glacial basin reveals a narrow vertical conductor interpreted as a focused multiphase plume, which coincides at the ground surface with the heat and CO 2 flux maxima. The magnetic data suggest that destruction of magnetic minerals due to rock alteration associated with the hydrothermal plume occurs mainly near the ground surface. We propose a model where the buoyant multiphase plume forms in response to decompression, boiling, and phase separation of pressurized thermal groundwater that discharges from the brecciated base of a rhyolite flow into the basin of glacial deposits. Results from multiphase groundwater flow and heat transport numerical simulations corroborate the first‐order characteristics of this model.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Shallow basin structure and attenuation are key to predicting long shaking duration in Los Angeles Basin

Ground motions in the Los Angeles Basin during large earthquakes are modulated by earthquake ruptures, path effects into the basin, basin effects, and local site response. We analyzed the direct effect of shallow basin structures on shaking duration at a period of 2–10 s in the Los Angeles region through modeling small magnitude, shallow, and deep earthquake pairs. The source depth modulates the basin response, particularly the shaking duration, and these features are a function of path effect and not site condition. Three-dimensional simulations using the CVM-S4.26.M01 velocity model show good fitting to the initial portion of the waveforms at periods of 5 s and longer but fail to predict the long shaking duration during shallow events, especially at periods less than 5 s. Simulations using CVM-H do not match the timing of the initial arrivals as well as CVM-S4.26.M01, and the strong late arrivals in the CVM-H simulation travel with an apparent velocity slower than observed. A higher-quality factor than traditionally assumed may produce synthetics with longer durations but is unable to accurately match the amplitude and phase. Beamforming analysis using dense array data further reveals the long duration surface waves have the same back azimuth as the direct arrivals and are generated at the basin edges, while the later coda waves are scattered from off-azimuth directions, potentially due to strong, sharp boundaries offshore. Improving the description of these shallow basin structures and attenuation model will enhance our capability to predict long-period ground motions in basins.

California↗

USGS2007

Close temporal correspondence between geomagnetic anomalies and earthquakes during the 2002-2003 eruption of Etna volcano

The early stages of the 2002-2003 lateral eruption at Mount Etna were accompanied by slow changes (over some hours) and some rapid step offsets in the local magnetic field. At five monitoring locations, the total magnetic field intensity has been measured using continuously operating Overhauser magnetometers at a sampling rate of 10 s. The very unique aspect of these observations is the close temporal correspondence between magnetic field offsets and earthquakes that occurred in the upper northern flank of the volcano on 27 October 2002 prior to a primary eruption. Rapid coseismic changes of the magnetic field were clearly identified for three of the most energetic earthquakes, which were concentrated along the Northeast Rift at a depth of about 1 km below sea level. Coseismic magnetic signals, with amplitudes from 0.5 to 2.5 nT, have been detected for three of the largest seismic events located roughly midway between the magnetic stations. We quantitatively examine possible geophysical mechanisms, which could cause the magnetic anomalies. The comparison between magnetic data, seismicity and surface phenomena implies that piezomagnetic effects are the primary physical mechanism responsible for the observed magnetic anomalies although the detailed cause of the rapid high stress change required is not clear. The modeling of the observed coseismic magnetic changes in terms of piezomagnetic mechanism provides further evidence of the complex interaction between volcanic and tectonic processes during dike propagation along the Northeast Rift. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Thermal observations of gas pistoning at Kilauea Volcano

Data acquired by three continuously recording thermal infrared thermometers situated on the north rim of Pu'u'O' o Crater at Kilauea Volcano during 2002 revealed episodes of periodic thermal pulses originating from a degassing vent on the crater floor. These thermal pulses are interpreted as gas release (jetting events) associated with gas pistoning, a mechanism observed previously at both Mauna Ulu and Pu'u'O' o. During a 35-day-long period spanning June and July 2002, gas pistoning was frequently the dominant mode of gas release, with as many as several hundred pulses occurring in uninterrupted series. On other days, degassing alternated between periods of quasi-continuous gas jetting and intervals of gas pistoning that contained a few to a few dozen pulses. Characteristic time intervals between pistoning events ranged from 2 up to 7 min. We identify three types of pistoning. Type 1 involves emission of lava, followed by gas jetting and drain back; type 2 is the same but the elevated position of the vent does not allow postjet drain back; and type 3 involves gas jetting only with no precursory lava flow. To explain gas pistoning, we apply a model whereby a stagnant cap of degassed magma develops in the conduit below the vent. Gas bubbles rise through the magma column and collect under the cap. The collective buoyancy of these bubbles pushes the cap upward. When the cap reaches the surface, it erupts from the vent as a lava flow. Unloading of the conduit magma in this way results in an abrupt pressure drop (i.e., the overburden felt by the bubbles is reduced), causing explosive gas expansion in the form of gas jetting from the vent. This terminates the event and lava drains back into the conduit to start the cycle anew. In the case where there is no surface lava emission or drain back, the cap instead pushes into and spreads out within a subsurface cavity. Again, this unloads the conduit magma and terminates in explosive gas release. Once gas is expelled, lava in the cavity is free to drain back. We hypothesize that pistoning is a stable mode of degassing for low-viscosity basaltic magmas with appropriate conduit geometries and volatile supply rates. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hawaii↗

USGS2006

Analysis of gravity and topography in the GLIMPSE study region: Isostatic compensation and uplift of the Sojourn and Hotu Matua Ridge systems

The Gravity Lieations Intraplate Melting Petrologic and Seismic Expedition (GLIMPSE) Experiment investigated the formation of a series of non-hot spot, intraplate volcanic ridges in the South Pacific and their relationship to cross-grain gravity lineaments detected by satellite altimetry. Using shipboard gravity measurements and a simple model of surface loading of a thin elastic plate, we estimate effective elastic thicknesses ranging from ???2 km beneath the Sojourn Ridge to a maximum of 10 km beneath the Southern Cross Seamount. These elastic thicknesses are lower than predicted for the 3-9 Ma seafloor on which the volcanoes lie, perhaps due to reheating and thinning of the plate during emplacement. Anomalously low apparent densities estimated for the Matua and Southern Cross seamounts 2050 and 2250 kg m-3, respectively, probably are artifacts caused by the assumption of only surface loading, ignoring the presence of subsurface loading in the form of underplated crust and/or low-density mantle. Using satellite free-air gravity and shipboard bathymetry, we calculate the age-detrended, residual mantle Bouguer anomaly (rMBA). The rMBA corrects the free-air anomaly for the direct effects of topography, including the thickening of the crust beneath the seamounts and volcanic ridges due to surface loading of the volcanic edifices. There are broad, negative rMBA anomalies along the Sojourn and Brown ridges and the Hotu Matua seamount chain that extend nearly to the East Pacific Rise. These negative rMBA anomalies connect to negative free-air anomalies in the western part of the study area that have been recognized previously as the beginnings of the cross-grain gravity lineaments. Subtracting the topographic effects of surface loading by the ridges and seamounts from the observed topography reveals that the ridges are built on broad bands of anomalously elevated seafloor. This swell topography and the negative rMBA anomalies contradict the predictions of lithospheric cracking models for the origin of gravity lineaments and associated volcanic ridges, favoring models with a dynamic mantle component such as small-scale convection or channelized asthenospheric return flow. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2019

Delayed dynamic triggering of disposal-induced earthquakes observed by a dense array in Northern Oklahoma

Recent increases in earthquake occurrence rates in Oklahoma have been linked to the injection of large volumes of saltwater, a byproduct of oil and gas extraction. Here we present a detailed study of remote earthquake triggering in an area of active injection‐induced seismicity in northern Oklahoma using data from the LArge‐n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) temporary array and nearby permanent broadband seismic stations. We estimate changes in earthquake rates and calculate the Coulomb failure stress changes on potential receiver faults due to passing teleseismic surface waves. A statistically significant increase in seismicity is observed ∼8 hr after the 16 April 2016 M w 7.8 Ecuador earthquake. The Coulomb stress changes associated with the Ecuador earthquake are on the order of ∼1 kPa. Physical mechanisms consistent with the observed dynamic stress threshold include failure driven by activation of aseismic slip or hydrological response of the fault system.

Oklahoma↗

USGS1997

Multiphase groundwater flow near cooling plutons

We investigate groundwater flow near cooling plutons with a computer program that can model multiphase flow, temperatures up to 1200°C, thermal pressurization, and temperature‐dependent rock properties. A series of experiments examines the effects of host‐rock permeability, size and depth of pluton emplacement, single versus multiple intrusions, the influence of a caprock, and the impact of topographically driven groundwater flow. We also reproduce and evaluate some of the pioneering numerical experiments on flow around plutons. Host‐rock permeability is the principal factor influencing fluid circulation and heat transfer in hydrothermal systems. The hottest and most steam‐rich systems develop where permeability is of the order of 10 −15 m 2 . Temperatures and life spans of systems decrease with increasing permeability. Conduction‐dominated systems, in which permeabilities are ≤10 −16 m 2 , persist longer but exhibit relatively modest increases in near‐surface temperatures relative to ambient conditions. Pluton size, emplacement depth, and initial thermal conditions have less influence on hydrothermal circulation patterns but affect the extent of boiling and duration of hydrothermal systems. Topographically driven groundwater flow can significantly alter hydrothermal circulation; however, a low‐permeability caprock effectively decouples the topographically and density‐driven systems and stabilizes the mixing interface between them thereby defining a likely ore‐forming environment.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2014

The birth and death of transverse aeolian ridges on Mars

Transverse aeolian ridges (TARs) are small bright windblown deposits found throughout the Martian tropics that stand a few meters tall and are spaced a few tens of meters apart. The origin of these features remains mysterious more than 20 years after their discovery on Mars. This paper presents a new hypothesis, that some of the TARs could be indurated dust deposits emplaced millions of years ago during periods of higher axial obliquity. It suggests that these TARs are primary depositional bed forms that accumulated in place from dust carried by the winds in suspension, perhaps in a manner comparable to antidunes on Earth, and were subsequently indurated and eroded to their current states by eons of sandblasting. It points out examples of modern dust drifts and dune‐like features that appear to have been recently formed by dust accumulating directly onto the surface from atmospheric suspension. It shows how these pristine dust deposits could evolve to explain the range of morphologies of the TARs. Finally, it explains how the known properties of many TARs are consistent with this hypothesis, including their composition, thermal behavior, and distribution.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2016

Fault segmentation: New concepts from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA

The question of whether structural segment boundaries along multisegment normal faults such as the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) act as persistent barriers to rupture is critical to seismic hazard analyses. We synthesized late Holocene paleoseismic data from 20 trench sites along the central WFZ to evaluate earthquake rupture length and fault segmentation. For the youngest (<3 ka) and best-constrained earthquakes, differences in earthquake timing across prominent primary segment boundaries, especially for the most recent earthquakes on the north-central WFZ, are consistent with segment-controlled ruptures. However, broadly constrained earthquake times, dissimilar event times along the segments, the presence of smaller-scale (subsegment) boundaries, and areas of complex faulting permit partial-segment and multisegment (e.g., spillover) ruptures that are shorter (~20–40 km) or longer (~60–100 km) than the primary segment lengths (35–59 km). We report a segmented WFZ model that includes 24 earthquakes since ~7 ka and yields mean estimates of recurrence (1.1–1.3 kyr) and vertical slip rate (1.3–2.0 mm/yr) for the segments. However, additional rupture scenarios that include segment boundary spatial uncertainties, floating earthquakes, and multisegment ruptures are necessary to fully address epistemic uncertainties in rupture length. We compare the central WFZ to paleoseismic and historical surface ruptures in the Basin and Range Province and central Italian Apennines and conclude that displacement profiles have limited value for assessing the persistence of segment boundaries but can aid in interpreting prehistoric spillover ruptures. Our comparison also suggests that the probabilities of shorter and longer ruptures on the WFZ need to be investigated.

Utah↗

USGS2012

Preseismic and coseismic deformation associated with the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake

The Coyote Lake earthquake ( M L = 5.9; August 6, 1979; epicenter about 100 km southeast of San Francisco) occurred on the Calaveras fault within a geodetic network that had been surveyed annually since 1972 to monitor strain accumulation. The rupture surface as defined by aftershocks is a vertical rectangle 20 km in length extending from a depth of 4 km to about 12 km. The observed deformation of the geodetic network constrains the average slip to be about 0.33 ± 0.05 m right lateral. Although the geodetic data furnished an exceptionally detailed picture of the preearthquake deformation, no significant premonitory anomaly associated with the Coyote Lake earthquake can be identified.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2003

Late Pleistocene to Holocene slip rates for the Gurvan Bulag thrust fault (Gobi-Altay, Mongolia) estimated with 10Be dates

We surveyed morphotectonic markers along the central part of the Gurvan Bulag thrust, a fault that ruptured with the Bogd fault during the Gobi-Altay earthquake (1957, M 8.3), to document climatic and tectonic processes along the fault for the late Pleistocene- Holocene period. The markers were dated using 10Be produced in situ. Two major periods of alluviation ended at 131 ?? 20 and 16 ?? 4.8 ka. These appear to be contemporaneous with global climatic changes at the terminations of marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2. The vertical slip rates, determined from offset measurements and surfaces ages, are 0.14 ?? 0.03 mm/yr over the late Pleistocene-Holocene and between 0.44 ?? 0.11 and 1.05 ?? 0.25 mm/yr since the end of the late Pleistocene. The higher of these slip rates for the last ???16 kyr is consistent with paleoseismic investigations along the fault [Prentice et al., 2002], and suggests that, at the end of late Pleistocene, the fault evolved from quiescence to having recurrence intervals of 4.0 ?? 1.2 kyr for surface ruptures with ???4 m vertical offset (similar to that of 1957). The inferred recurrence interval is comparable to that of the Bogd fault (3.7 ?? 1.3 kyr) suggesting that the two faults may have ruptured together also earlier during the last ???16 kyr.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

A magmatic model of Medicine Lake Volcano, California

Medicine Lake volcano is a Pleistocene and Holocene shield volcano of the southern Cascade Range. It is located behind the main Cascade arc in an extensional tectonic setting where high-alumina basalt is the most commonly erupted lava. This basalt is parental to the higher-silica calc-alkaline and tholeiitic lavas that make up the bulk of the shield. The presence of late Holocene, chemically identical rhyolites on opposite sides of the volcano led to hypotheses of a large shallow silicic magma chamber and of a small, deep chamber that fed rhyolites to the surface via cone sheets. Subsequent geophysical work has been unable to identify a large silicic magma body, and instead a small one has apparently been recognized. Some geologic data support the geophysical results. Tectonic control of vent alignments and the dominance of mafic eruptions both in number of events and volume throughout the history of the volcano indicate that no large silicic magma reservoir exists. Instead, a model is proposed that includes numerous dikes, sills, and small magma bodies, most of which are too small to be recognized by present geophysical methods.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Tidal triggering of low frequency earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Implications for fault mechanics within the brittle-ductile transition

Studies of nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) have established the significant impact of small stress perturbations on NVT generation. Here we analyze the influence of the solid earth and ocean tides on a catalog of ∼550,000 low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) distributed along a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield. LFE families are identified in the NVT data on the basis of waveform similarity and are thought to represent small, effectively co-located earthquakes occurring on brittle asperities on an otherwise aseismic fault at depths of 16 to 30 km. We calculate the sensitivity of each of these 88 LFE families to the tidally induced right-lateral shear stress (RLSS), fault-normal stress (FNS), and their time derivatives and use the hypocentral locations of each family to map the spatial variability of this sensitivity. LFE occurrence is most strongly modulated by fluctuations in shear stress, with the majority of families demonstrating a correlation with RLSS at the 99% confidence level or above. Producing the observed LFE rate modulation in response to shear stress perturbations requires low effective stress in the LFE source region. There are substantial lateral and vertical variations in tidal shear stress sensitivity, which we interpret to reflect spatial variation in source region properties, such as friction and pore fluid pressure. Additionally, we find that highly episodic, shallow LFE families are generally less correlated with tidal stresses than their deeper, continuously active counterparts. The majority of families have weaker or insignificant correlation with positive (tensile) FNS. Two groups of families demonstrate a stronger correlation with fault-normal tension to the north and with compression to the south of Parkfield. The families that correlate with fault-normal clamping coincide with a releasing right bend in the surface fault trace and the LFE locations, suggesting that the San Andreas remains localized and contiguous down to near the base of the crust. The deep families that have high sensitivity to both shear and tensile normal stress perturbations may be indicative of an increase in effective fault contact area with depth. Synthesizing our observations with those of other LFE-hosting localities will help to develop a comprehensive understanding of transient fault slip below the “seismogenic zone” by providing constraints on parameters in physical models of slow slip and LFEs.

California↗

USGS2003

Evidence for a Battle Mountain-Eureka crustal fault zone, north-central Nevada, and its relation to Neoproterozoic-Early Paleozoic continental breakup

Combined evidence from gravity, radiogenic isotope, and magnetotelluric (MT) data indicates a crustal fault zone that coincides with the northwest-trending Battle Mountain-Eureka (BME) mineral trend in north-central Nevada, USA. The BME crustal fault zone likely originated during Neoproterozoic-Early Paleozoic rifting of the continent and had a large influence on subsequent tectonic events, such as emplacement of allochthons and episodic deformation, magmatism, and mineralization throughout the Phanerozoic. MT models show the fault zone is about 10 km wide, 130-km long, and extends from 1 to 5 km below the surface to deep crustal levels. Isotope data and gravity models imply the fault zone separates crust of fundamentally different character. Geophysical evidence for such a long-lived structure, likely inherited from continental breakup, defies conventional wisdom that structures this old have been destroyed by Cenozoic extensional processes. Moreover, the coincidence with the alignment of mineral deposits supports the assertion by many economic geologists that these alignments are indicators of buried regional structures.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2016

Tomographic image of a seismically active volcano: Mammoth Mountain, California

High-resolution tomographic P wave, S wave, and V P / V S velocity structure models are derived for Mammoth Mountain, California, using phase data from the Northern California Seismic Network and a temporary deployment of broadband seismometers. An anomalous volume (5.1 × 10 9 to 5.9 × 10 10 m 3 ) of low P and low S wave velocities is imaged beneath Mammoth Mountain, extending from near the surface to a depth of &sim;2 km below sea level. We infer that the reduction in seismic wave velocities is due to the presence of CO 2 distributed in oblate spheroid pores with mean aspect ratio α = 1.6 × 10 −3 to 7.9 × 10 −3 (crack-like pores) and mean gas volume fraction ϕ = 8.1 × 10 −4 to 3.4 × 10 −3 . The pore density parameter κ = 3 ϕ /(4π α ) = na 3 =0.11, where n is the number of pores per cubic meter and a is the mean pore equatorial radius. The total mass of CO 2 is estimated to be 4.6 × 10 9 to 1.9 × 10 11 kg. The local geological structure indicates that the CO 2 contained in the pores is delivered to the surface through fractures controlled by faults and remnant foliation of the bedrock beneath Mammoth Mountain. The total volume of CO 2 contained in the reservoir suggests that given an emission rate of 500 tons day −1 , the reservoir could supply the emission of CO 2 for &sim;25–1040 years before depletion. Continued supply of CO 2 from an underlying magmatic system would significantly prolong the existence of the reservoir.

California↗

USGS2023

Identification of seismo-volcanic regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) via systematic tuning of an unsupervised classifier

We present an algorithm based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to recognize patterns in a continuous 12.5-year tremor time series recorded at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand (hereafter referred to as Whakaari). The approach is extendable to a variety of volcanic settings through systematic tuning of the classifier. Hyperparameters are evaluated by statistical means, yielding a combination of “ideal” SOM parameters for the given data set. Extending from this, we applied a Kernel Density Estimation approach to automatically detect changes within the observed seismicity. We categorize the Whakaari seismic time series into regimes representing distinct volcano-seismic states during recent unrest episodes at Whakaari (2012/2013, 2016, and 2019). There is a clear separation in classification results between background regimes and those representing elevated levels of unrest. Onset of unrest is detected by the classifier 6 weeks before the August 2012 eruption, and ca. 3.5 months before the December 2019 eruption, respectively. Regime changes are corroborated by changes in commonly monitored tremor proxies as well as with reported volcanic activity. The regimes are hypothesized to represent diverse mechanisms including: system pressurization and depressurization, degassing, and elevated surface activity. Labeling these regimes improves visualization of the 2012/2013 and 2019 unrest and eruptive episodes. The pre-eruptive 2016 unrest showed a contrasting shape and nature of seismic regimes, suggesting differing onset and driving processes. The 2016 episode is proposed to result from rapid destabilization of the shallow hydrothermal system, while rising magmatic gases from new injections of magma better explain the 2012/2013 and 2019 episodes.

Whakaari, White Island↗