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USGS2009

Patterns of forest succession and impacts of flood in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain ecosystem

The widespread loss of oak-hickory forests and the impacts of flood have been major issues of ecological interest concerning forest succession in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. The data analysis from two comprehensive field surveys indicated that Quercus was one of the dominant genera in the UMR floodplain ecosystem prior to the 1993 flood and constituted 14% of the total number of trees and 28% of the total basal area. During the post-flood recovery period through 2006, Quercus demonstrated slower recovery rates in both the number of trees (4%) and basal area (17%). In the same period, Carya recovered greatly from the 1993 flood in terms of the number of trees (11%) and basal area (2%), compared to its minor status before the flood. Further analyses suggested that different species responded to the 1993 flood with varying tolerance and different succession strategies. In this study, the relation of flood-caused mortality rates and DBH, f m (d), can be expressed in negative exponential functions for each species. The results of this research also indicate that the growth functions are different for each species and might also be different between pre- and post-flood time periods. These functions indicate different survival strategies and emergent properties in responding to flood impacts. This research enhances our understanding of forest succession patterns in space and time in the UPR floodplain. And such understanding might be used to predict long-term impacts of floods on UMR floodplain forest dynamics in support of management and restoration. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Complexity↗

USGS2009

Short- and long-term implications of clearcut and two-age silviculture for conservation of breeding forest birds in the central Appalachians, USA

Two-age (deferment or leave tree) harvesting is used increasingly in even-aged forest management, but long-term responses of breeding avifauna to retention of residual canopy trees have not been investigated. Breeding bird surveys completed in 1994-1996 in two-age and clearcut harvests in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia, USA allowed us to document long-term changes in these stands. In 2005 and 2006, we conducted point counts in mature unharvested forest stands and in 19-26 year-old clearcut and two-age harvests from the original study and in younger clearcut and two-age stands (6-10 years old). We found differences in breeding bird metrics among these five treatments and temporal differences in the original stands. Although early-successional species are typically absent from group selection cuts, they were almost as common in young two-age stands as clearcuts, supporting two-age harvests as an alternative to clearcutting. Although older harvests had lower species richness and diversity, they were beginning to provide habitat for some species of late-successional forest songbirds that were absent or uncommon in young harvests. Overall, late-successional forest-interior species were more flexible in their use of different seral stages; several species used both age classes and harvest types in addition to mature forest, which may reflect the lack of edges in our heavily-forested landscape. Consequently, two-age management provides habitat for a diverse group of species as these stands mature and may be an ecologically sustainable alternative to clearcutting in landscapes where brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) are uncommon. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2005

Developing ecological criteria for prescribed fire in South Florida pine rockland ecosystems

The pine rocklands of South Florida, characterized by a rich herbaceous flora with many narrowly endemic taxa beneath an overstory of south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa), are found in three areas: the Miami Rock Ridge of southeastern peninsular Florida, the Lower Florida Keys, and slightly elevated portions of the southern Big Cypress National Preserve. Fire is an important element in these ecosystems, since in its absence the pine canopy is likely to be replaced by dense hardwoods, resulting in loss of the characteristic pineland herb flora. Prescribed fire has been used in Florida Keys pine forests since the creation of the National Key Deer Refuge (NKDR), with the primary aim of reducing fuels. Because fire can also be an effective tool in shaping ecological communities, we conducted a 4-year research study which explored a range of fire management options in NKDR. The intent of the study was to provide the Fish and Wildlife Service and other land managers with information regarding when and where to burn in order to perpetuate these unique forests. In 1998 we initiated a burning experiment in a randomized complete block design. Three treatments were to be carried out in a single well-defined block in each of two characteristic understory types during each year from 1998 through 2000. One understory type was characterized by a relatively sparse shrub layer and a well-developed herb layer ('open'), and the second had a dense shrub layer and poorly developed herb layer ('shrubby'). The three burn treatments were: (a) summer burn, (b) winter burn, and (c) no burn, or control. Three 1- ha plots were established in each block, and randomly assigned to the three treatments. Though the first year experimental burns were carried out without incident, constraints posed by external factors, including nationwide and statewide prohibitions on prescribed burning due to wildfires in other regions, delayed the experimental burns and precluded collection of postburn data on one third of the burns. Ultimately we burned only eleven plots, three in winter and eight in summer, over a four-year period from 1998 to 2001. Vegetation was sampled in a stratified, nested design within 18 plots. Trees were sampled in a 1.0-ha plot, shrubs in twenty 50-m2 circular (radius 4 m) subplots within the tree plot, and the herb layer in four circular 1-m2 quadrats (radius 0.57 m) within each subplot. The amount of fuel in the shrub layer was estimated by applying regression models to plant dimensional data, and ground layer fuel was estimated by a harvest method. The effects of Key deer herbivory on regeneration of the understory pine rockland plant community after fire was studied by monitoring inside and outside exclosures established within two of the six blocks. Pine trees constituted more than half (53.3%) of the biomass, but understory fine fuels comprised a surprisingly high proportion of total aboveground biomass. In the three blocks in which paired summer and winter burns were successfully conducted, the summer burns were more intense than the winter burns as judged by our indicators of fire intensity. Because of the differences in fire intensity between seasons, it was not possible to say whether observed differences in vegetation response between summer and winter burns were due to season or to fire intensity. The mortality of South Florida slash pine trees was greater after the summer burn than the winter burn in each block, but other vegetation responses were rarely as consistent. For instance, Metopium showed less recovery after summer burns in two blocks and after the winter burn in the third block. Moreover, there were instances in which alternative growth stages of the same species responded differently. Adult palms succumbed more frequently to summer than winter burns, and mortality of Coccothrinax exceeded that of Thrinax. In contrast, small palms recovered more readily after summer burns than winter burns. High in

Florida↗

USGS2008

Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: A review

Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal development limits the ecosystem services and adaptations important to their survival. Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex due to interacting geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater discharge, waves, and constituents of sediment, nutrients and saltwater. These interactions limit developing a comprehensive framework for science-based sustainable management practices. A suite of models have been developed independently by various academic and government institutions worldwide to understand the dynamics of mangrove ecosystems and to provide ecological forecasting capabilities under different management scenarios and natural disturbance regimes. The models have progressed from statistical tables representing growth and yield to more sophisticated models describing various system components and processes. Among these models are three individual-based models (IBMs) (FORMAN, KIWI, and MANGRO). A comparison of models’ designs reveal differences in the details of process description, particularly, regarding neighbor competition among trees. Each model has thus its specific range of applications. Whereas FORMAN and KIWI are most suitable to address mangrove forest dynamics of stands, MANGRO focuses on landscape dynamics on larger spatial scale. A comparison of the models and a comparison of the models with empirical knowledge further reveal the general needs for further field and validation studies to advance our ecological understanding and management of mangrove wetlands.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS2024

Identifying conditions where reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) functions as a driver of forest loss in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain under different hydrological scenarios

Most of the world’s river-floodplain ecosystems are simultaneously undergoing modifications to their hydrological regimes and experiencing species invasions, making it unclear whether invasive species are the main drivers of ecosystem change or simply responding to changes in the hydrological regime. We simulated patterns of forest recruitment and succession in a 2500-ha portion of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain with and without removal of invasive Phalaris arundinacea and under two different future 100-year hydrological scenarios: a future maintaining the average flooding conditions of the past 40 years (random) and a future that projects an observed upward 40-year trend in flooding conditions forward (trending). By comparing scenarios that included Phalaris removal and ones that did not, we were able to identify the conditions where Phalaris was the main driver of forest loss vs. the conditions where hydrology was the main driver of forest loss. Areas where Phalaris was the main driver of forest loss had mean annual flood inundation durations that were similar to areas that did not lose forest cover (60–90 growing season days), while areas where flooding was the main driver of forest loss had longer mean inundation durations (102–124 growing season days). In comparison to the random hydrology scenario, the trending scenario produced a decrease in the area over which Phalaris was identified as the main driver of forest loss and an increase in the area over which flood inundation was identified as the main driver of forest loss. Thus, if the observed trends in flooding continue, our model projects an increase in the area over which eradicating Phalaris is unlikely to result in the maintenance of forest cover. We used the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework to discuss potential management options to resist changes and maintain forest cover where Phalaris is likely to be the main driver of forest loss and to accept or direct changes in areas where forest loss is likely driven by hydrological change.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management

Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management—those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2004

Sierra Nevada bioregion

This chapter addresses the immediately south of the Cascades in the Sierra Nevada bioregion, extending nearly half the length of the state of California. This bioregion is one of the most striking features of the state of California, extending from the southern Cascade Mountains in the north to the Tehachapi Mountains and Mojave Desert 700 km to the south. Moreover, the fire responses of important species and fire regime-plant community interactions in the foothill shrubland and the woodland zone, the lower-montane forest ecological zone, the upper-montane forest, the subalpine forest, the alpine meadow, and the shrubland zone and eastside forest and woodland are explained. The success of the management of the Sierra Nevada is contingent on the ability and willingness to keep fire an integral part of these ecosystems.

California↗

USGS2019

Assessing the ecological impacts of biomass harvesting along a disturbance severity gradient

Disturbance is a central driver of forest development and ecosystem processes with variable effects within and across ecosystems. Despite the high levels of variation in disturbance severity often observed in forests following natural and anthropogenic disturbance, studies quantifying disturbance impacts often rely on categorical classifications, thus limiting opportunities to examine potential gradients in ecosystem response to a given disturbance or management regime. Given the potential increases in disturbance severity associated with global change, as well as shifts in management regimes related to procurement of biofuel feedstocks, there is an increasing need to quantitatively describe disturbance severity and associated responses of forest development, soil processes, and structural conditions. This study took advantage of two, replicated large-scale studies of forest biomass harvesting in Populus tremuloides and Pinus bansksiana forests, respectively, to develop and test the utility of a continuous, quantitative index of disturbance severity (DSI) for describing post-harvest response of plant communities and nutrient pools to different levels of biomass removal and legacy retention (i.e., live trees and coarse woody material). There was a high-degree of variability in DSI within categorical treatments associated with different levels of legacy retention and regression models using DSI as a predictor explained a portion of the variation (>50%) for many of the ecosystem- and community-level responses to biomass harvesting examined. Nutrient losses associated with biomass harvesting were positively related to disturbance severity, particularly in P. tremuloides forests, with post-harvest nutrient availability generally declining along the gradient of impacts. Consistent with expectations from ecological theory, species richness and diversity of woody plant communities were greatest at intermediate disturbance severities and regeneration densities of dominant trees species most abundant at highest levels of disturbance. Although categorical benchmarks will continue to be the primary way through which management guidelines are conveyed to practitioners, evaluation of their effectiveness at sustaining ecosystem functioning should be through continuous analyses, such as the DSI approach used in this study, to allow for the identification of minimum benchmarks that ensure a range of desirable outcomes exist across managed landscapes.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2009

Delayed conifer mortality after fuel reduction treatments: Interactive effects of fuel, fire intensity, and bark beetles

Many low‐elevation dry forests of the western United States contain more small trees and fewer large trees, more down woody debris, and less diverse and vigorous understory plant communities compared to conditions under historical fire regimes. These altered structural conditions may contribute to increased probability of unnaturally severe wildfires, susceptibility to uncharacteristic insect outbreaks, and drought‐related mortality. Broad‐scale fuel reduction and restoration treatments are proposed to promote stand development on trajectories toward more sustainable structures. Little research to date, however, has quantified the effects of these treatments on the ecosystem, especially delayed and latent tree mortality resulting directly or indirectly from treatments. In this paper, we explore complex hypotheses relating to the cascade of effects that influence ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) mortality using structural equation modeling (SEM). We used annual census and plot data through six growing seasons after thinning and four growing seasons after burning from a replicated, operational‐scale, completely randomized experiment conducted in northeastern Oregon, USA, as part of the national Fire and Fire Surrogate study. Treatments included thin, burn, thin followed by burn (thin + burn), and control. Burn and thin + burn treatments increased the proportion of dead trees while the proportion of dead trees declined or remained constant in thin and control units, although the density of dead trees was essentially unchanged with treatment. Most of the new mortality (96%) occurred within two years of treatment and was attributed to bark beetles. Bark beetle‐caused tree mortality, while low overall, was greatest in thin + burn treatments. SEM results indicate that the probability of mortality of large‐diameter ponderosa pine from bark beetles and wood borers was directly related to surface fire severity and bole charring, which in turn depended on fire intensity, which was greater in units where thinning increased large woody fuels. These results have implications when deciding among management options for restoring ecosystem health in similar ponderosa pine and Douglas‐fir forests.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2017

Monitoring Hawaiian biodiversity: Pilot study to assess changes to forest birds and their habitat

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the variety and abundance of species in a defined area, and is one of the oldest and most basic descriptions of biological communities. Understanding how populations and communities are structured and change over space and time in response to internal and external forces is a management priority. Effective management practices and conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the relationship between changes in biodiversity and ecological drivers such as invasive species, land use and climate change. To demonstrate how changes in biodiversity may be monitored over a large (400 km2) tract of native forest habitat, we compared bird and plant community composition and structure in an upper montane region of Hawai‘i Island originally surveyed in 1977 as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986) with a comprehensive sample of the same region in 2015. Our findings suggest that across a region spanning an elevation range of 600 to 2,000 m considerable changes occurred in the plant and bird communities between 1977 and 2015. Endemic and indigenous plants species richness (i.e., total number of species) decreased dramatically in the low and middle elevations below an invasive weed front, whereas naturalized plant species richness did not change between the two periods at any elevation. Endemic bird abundance decreased and two species were lost in the lower elevations (< 1,100 m) between 1977 and 2015, while naturalized bird abundance and the numbers of species increased in the same area. In addition to changes in community composition, the structure of the forest showed evidence of changes in dominant and sub-dominant tree canopy cover, shrub and herbaceous cover, dominant tree canopy height, and matted fern cover. Biodiversity monitoring helps to define specific conservation targets and to measure progress towards reaching those targets. It is difficult to ascribe causative factors to a change in biodiversity without directly manipulating the environment. Forest habitat in a variety of settings (i.e., islands and regions with differing land-use histories and elevation ranges), however, can provide opportunities to evaluate the influence of ecological drivers. Declines in native bird biodiversity in low-elevation areas may be attributed to invasive species as land use and climate conditions have remained relatively similar over the 40-year period. Thus, the shift from an endemic-naturalized co-dominated community in 1977 to one dominated by naturalized, alien birds in 2015, and reduction in native bird abundance over that period, may reflect increasing dominance by naturalized plants within this forested area. Inferences drawn from analyses of region-wide surveys, especially with replicate datasets, will facilitate the identification of broad-scale changes in biodiversity, and provide a needed current datum in Hawaiian plant and bird biodiversity monitoring.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Batrachochytrium salamandriovrans (Bsal) in Appalachia—Using scenario building to proactively prepare for a wildlife disease outbreak caused by an invasive amphibian chytrid fungus

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ), a pathogenic chytrid fungus, is nonnative to the United States and poses a disease threat to vulnerable amphibian hosts. The Bsal fungus may lead to increases in threatened, endangered, and sensitive status listings at State, Tribal, and Federal levels, resulting in financial costs associated with implementing the Endangered Species Act of 1973. The United States is a global biodiversity hotspot for salamanders, an order of amphibians that is particularly vulnerable to developing a disease called chytridiomycosis when exposed to Bsal . Published Bsal risk assessments for North America have suggested that salamanders within the Appalachian region of the United States are at a high risk. In May 2017, a workshop was facilitated by the Department of the Interior’s Strategic Sciences Group. During the workshop, a discussion-based incident-response exercise focused on a hypothetical Bsal disease outbreak in Appalachia was led by U.S. Geological Survey staff members. Participants included representatives of the Eastern Band of the Cherokee Indians, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency, and U.S. Department of Agriculture’s U.S. Forest Service. Scenario building was used to brainstorm cascading consequences (social, economic, and ecological) of a Bsal disease outbreak in the Appalachian region. This report highlights the management and science actions that could be undertaken to ensure an effective, rapid response to a Bsal introduction into the United States.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North American forests

Mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) (MPB) outbreaks are increasingly prevalent in western North America, causing considerable ecological change in pine ( Pinus spp.) forests with important implications for wildlife. We reviewed studies examining wildlife responses to MPB outbreaks and postoutbreak salvage logging to inform forest management and guide future research. Our review included 16 studies describing MPB outbreak relationships with 89 bird species and 6 studies describing relationships with 11 mammalian species, but no studies of reptiles or amphibians. We included studies that compared wildlife response metrics temporally (before versus after the outbreak) and spatially (across sites that varied in severity of outbreak) in relation to beetle outbreaks. Outbreaks ranged in size from 20,600 to ≥10 7 ha and studies occurred 1‐30 years after the peak MPB outbreak, but most studies were conducted over the short-term (i.e., ≤6 years after the peak of MPB-induced tree mortality). Birds were the only taxa studied frequently; however, high variability existed among those studies to allow many inferences, although some patterns were evident. Avian studies concluded that cavity-nesting species responded more favorably to beetle-killed forests than species with open-cup nests, and species nesting in the shrub layer favored outbreak forests compared with ground and open-cup canopy nesters that generally showed mixed relationships. Bark-drilling species as a group clearly demonstrated a positive short-term association with MPB epidemics compared with that of other foraging assemblages. Cavity-nesting birds that do not consume bark beetles (i.e., secondary cavity-nesting species and nonbark-drilling woodpeckers) also exhibited some positive responses to MPB outbreaks, although not as pronounced or consistent as those of bark-drilling woodpeckers. Mammalian responses to MPB outbreaks were mixed. Studies consistently reported negative effects of MPB outbreaks on red squirrels ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ). However, there is evidence that red squirrels can persist after an outbreak under some conditions, e.g., when nonhost tree species are present. For small mammal species associated with forest understories, responses may be most pronounced during the postepidemic period (>6 years after the peak of beetle-induced tree mortality) when snags fall to produce coarse woody debris. Postoutbreak salvage logging studies ( n = 6) reported results that lacked consensus. Postoutbreak salvage logging may have an impact on fewer wildlife species than postfire salvage logging, probably because only host-specific tree species are removed after beetle outbreaks.

Forest Science↗

USGS2022

The impacts of mangrove range expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States: Current understanding, knowledge gaps, and emerging research needs

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2020

Effects of flow diversion on Snake Creek and its riparian cottonwood forest, Great Basin National Park

Snake Creek flows east from the southern Snake Range in Nevada over complex lithology before leaving Great Basin National Park. The river travels over a section of karst limestone where some surface water naturally recharges the groundwater flow system. In 1961 a water diversion pipeline was constructed by downstream water users to transport surface water through the groundwater recharge zone to reduce potential water losses. The diversion pipeline dewaters a 5-km reach for most of the year by transporting water past the recharge zone then returning it to the channel downstream. Snake Creek was incorporated into the newly established Great Basin National Park in 1986, and today park managers and visitors are concerned that the diversion has destabilized Snake Creek’s riparian ecosystem in this arid region where it has high ecological value. The objectives of this study were to 1) document riparian cottonwood forest conditions in the pipeline-dewatered (DW) reach, 2) evaluate Snake Creek water availability and whether it can support a healthy riparian ecosystem, and 3) determine if dewatering has shifted the fluvial system into an unnatural and poorly functioning state. We pursued these ecohydrological study objectives in 11 research investigations of Snake Creek’s DW reach and nearby reference reaches. The research investigations analyzed: 1) riparian forest condition, tree age, growth, and death; 2) tree ring chronologies through time and space; 3) hydroclimatic drivers of tree growth; 4) stable carbon isotopes extracted from tree rings; 5) cottonwood ecophysiology related to water transport and water stress; 6) historical aerial photography; 7) stand-level riparian forest production; 8) groundwater availability as related to surface water and plant rooting zones; 9) near-surface geophysics using electrical resistivity imaging; 10) channel and valley geomorphology; and 11) in-channel wood jams caused by fallen trees. Integrating these diverse research topics provided a full perspective of historical and modern conditions along Snake Creek. We found that modern hydrological conditions in Snake Creek’s DW reach could not maintain the drought-sensitive ecosystem. The riparian cottonwoods ( Populus angustifolia and P. angustifolia x P. trichocarpa ) have experienced significant dieback. Tree mortality was 2.4 times higher in the DW reach than in reference reaches, and surviving trees supported only 60% of the live canopy compared to trees in reference reaches. Changes in the DW reach forest began in the 1960s and became more severe during the last two decades. Stable carbon isotope ratios and branch dieback analyses both demonstrated initial forest adjustments related to water stress beginning in the early 1960s. Tree ring width chronologies indicated two periods of growth decline in the DW relative to control reaches. The first decline in the 1960s represented an immediate adjustment to the modified flow regime, and the second decline in the 2000s demonstrated reduced resilience to atmospheric drought. Aerial photos and stand-level forest production calculations indicated that substantial riparian forest decline occurred in the 1990s–2010s in the DW reach compared to reference reaches. Stable carbon isotope ratios and leaf water potentials revealed that trees in the DW reach experienced greater drought stress than those in reference reaches. Monitoring wells and electrical resistivity surveys both showed riparian water tables to be largely supported by in-channel surface water flow, indicating that the flow diversion removed water that recharges alluvial groundwater and sustains riparian plants. Areas of widespread tree mortality in the DW reach also corresponded to a larger and more unstable channel with a high instream wood load from fallen trees. Modern conditions of Snake Creek in the DW reach robustly suggest that dewatering the river and its associated riparian corridor adversely affected the riparian ecosystem. The degraded condition is likely to persist and intensify unless water is returned to the channel. As we documented during the wet 1980s and the scientific literature suggest, a partial recovery of the riparian ecosystem is likely possible with restored flows.

Nevada↗

USGS2024

Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds

Mangroves can increase their elevation relative to tidal flooding through biogeomorphic feedbacks but can submerge if rates of sea-level rise are too great. There is an urgent need to understand the vulnerability of mangroves to sea-level rise so local communities and resource managers can implement and prioritize actions. The need is especially pressing for small islands, which have been identified as an area of concern by the IPCC. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for tidal wetlands (WARMER-3) that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation building relative to sea levels. The model was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from 29 soil cores, over 300 forest inventory plots, water level, and elevation. The model included five mangrove tree species and was applied across seven regions around the Pacific Island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, where mangrove forest is a critical ecosystem that supports subsistence living for local communities. We explored mangrove resilience and carbon accumulation under six sea-level rise scenarios. We also conducted an analysis to determine the sea-level rise rate threshold above which mangroves would be lost. The results suggest that Pohnpei mangroves can build their elevations relative to low and moderate rates of sea-level rise to prevent submergence, with limited loss of mangrove area through 2150. Under higher sea-level rise rates, however, forest elevation decreased substantially relative to mean sea level and there was extensive loss of mangrove area by that year. Regarding mangrove community composition, for all sea-level rise scenarios, the model predicted a change to increasing relative abundance of flood tolerant species and decreasing relative abundance of high-elevation species, which started to being realized by 2100. Variation in sediment supply, water levels, and elevation capital led to differential vulnerability around the island. We identified a threshold for Pohnpei mangroves where if local sea-level rise rates exceed 7.8 ± 2.2 mm/year they are projected to eventually submerge and be lost. Our modeling framework is novel by addressing both species interactions and critical belowground processes to better understand potential tidal ecosystem responses to sea-level rise.

Pohnpei↗

USGS2004

Standing crop and aboveground biomass partitioning of a dwarf mangrove forest in Taylor River Slough, Florida

The structure and standing crop biomass of a dwarf mangrove forest, located in the salinity transition zone ofTaylor River Slough in the Everglades National Park, were studied. Although the four mangrove species reported for Florida occurred at the study site, dwarf Rhizophora mangle trees dominated the forest. The structural characteristics of the mangrove forest were relatively simple: tree height varied from 0.9 to 1.2 meters, and tree density ranged from 7062 to 23 778 stems haa??1. An allometric relationship was developed to estimate leaf, branch, prop root, and total aboveground biomass of dwarf Rhizophora mangle trees. Total aboveground biomass and their components were best estimated as a power function of the crown area times number of prop roots as an independent variable (Y = B ?? Xa??0.5083). The allometric equation for each tree component was highly significant (p<0.0001), with all r2 values greater than 0.90. The allometric relationship was used to estimate total aboveground biomass that ranged from 7.9 to 23.2 ton haa??1. Rhizophora mangle contributed 85% of total standing crop biomass. Conocarpus erectus, Laguncularia racemosa, and Avicennia germinans contributed the remaining biomass. Average aboveground biomass allocation was 69% for prop roots, 25% for stem and branches, and 6% for leaves. This aboveground biomass partitioning pattern, which gives a major role to prop roots that have the potential to produce an extensive root system, may be an important biological strategy in response to low phosphorus availability and relatively reduced soils that characterize mangrove forests in South Florida.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation.

Amazon River, Mazagão watershed↗

USGS2024

A multi-objective approach for timber harvest scheduling to include management of at-risk species and spatial configuration objectives

Sustainable forestry typically involves integration of several economic and ecological objectives which, at times, may not be compatible with one another. Multi-objective prioritization via harvest scheduling programs can be used to elucidate these relationships and explore solutions. One such program is a spatially explicit harvest scheduler that adopts the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to iteratively find management solutions to achieve multiple objectives (Habplan). Although this program has been used to address forest management scheduling and simulation-based tasks, its utility is constrained by time-intensive data preparation and challenges with incorporating spatial configuration objectives. To address these shortcomings, we introduce an open-source software package, HabplanR, streamlines data preparation, sets parameters, visualizes results, and assesses spatial components of ecological objectives. We developed four example objectives to incorporate into a multi-objective management problem: habitat quality indices for three species “types” (open, closed, and intermediate-canopy-associated species), and harvested pine pulpwood (revenue). We demonstrate the utility of this package to find management schedules that can accommodate potentially conflicting habitat needs of species, while achieving economic targets. We produced 100 software runs and prioritized individual objectives to select four management schedules for further comparisons. We compared outcome differences of the four schedules, including a spatial comparison of two high performing schedules. The software package makes costs and benefits of different schedules explicit and allows for consideration of the spatial configuration of management outcomes in decision-making.

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