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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗
USGS2013

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage-grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range, U.S.A.

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage-grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage-grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage-grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km 2 region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D 2 model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species–habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage-grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D 2 (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage-grouse required sagebrush-dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage-grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land-use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage-grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage-grouse populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Temporally adaptive acoustic sampling to maximize detection across a suite of focal wildlife species

Acoustic recordings of the environment can produce species presence–absence data for characterizing populations of sound-producing wildlife over multiple spatial scales. If a species is present at a site but does not vocalize during a scheduled audio recording survey, researchers may incorrectly conclude that the species is absent (“false negative”). The risk of false negatives is compounded when audio devices have sampling constraints, do not record continuously, and must be manually scheduled to operate at pre-selected times of day, particularly when research programs target multiple species with acoustic availability that varies across temporal conditions. We developed a temporally adaptive acoustic sampling algorithm to maximize detection probabilities for a suite of focal species amid sampling constraints. The algorithm combines user-supplied species vocalization models with site-specific weather forecasts to set an optimized sampling schedule for the following day. To test our algorithm, we simulated hourly vocalization probabilities for a suite of focal species in a hypothetical monitoring area for the year 2016. We conducted a factorial experiment that sampled from the 2016 acoustic environment to compare the probability of acoustic detection by a fixed (stationary) schedule versus a temporally adaptive optimized schedule under several sampling efforts and monitoring durations. We found that over the course of a study season, the probability of acoustically capturing a focal species (given presence) at least once via automated acoustic monitoring was greater (and acoustic capture occurred earlier in the season) when using the temporally adaptive optimized schedule as compared to a fixed schedule. The advantages of a temporally adaptive optimized acoustic sampling schedule are magnified when a study duration is short, sampling effort is low, and/or species acoustic availability is minimal. This methodology presents the opportunity to maximize acoustic monitoring sampling efforts amid constraints.

Colorado↗
USGS2019

Evidence of region‐wide bat population decline from long‐term monitoring and Bayesian occupancy models with empirically informed priors

Strategic conservation efforts for cryptic species, especially bats, are hindered by limited understanding of distribution and population trends. Integrating long‐term encounter surveys with multi‐season occupancy models provides a solution whereby inferences about changing occupancy probabilities and latent changes in abundance can be supported. When harnessed to a Bayesian inferential paradigm, this modeling framework offers flexibility for conservation programs that need to update prior model‐based understanding about at‐risk species with new data. This scenario is exemplified by a bat monitoring program in the Pacific Northwestern United States in which results from 8 years of surveys from 2003 to 2010 require updating with new data from 2016 to 2018. The new data were collected after the arrival of bat white‐nose syndrome and expansion of wind power generation, stressors expected to cause population declines in at least two vulnerable species, little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ) and the hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ). We used multi‐season occupancy models with empirically informed prior distributions drawn from previous occupancy results (2003–2010) to assess evidence of contemporary decline in these two species. Empirically informed priors provided the bridge across the two monitoring periods and increased precision of parameter posterior distributions, but did not alter inferences relative to use of vague priors. We found evidence of region‐wide summertime decline for the hoary bat ( = 0.86 ± 0.10) since 2010, but no evidence of decline for the little brown bat ( = 1.1 ± 0.10). White‐nose syndrome was documented in the region in 2016 and may not yet have caused regional impact to the little brown bat. However, our discovery of hoary bat decline is consistent with the hypothesis that the longer duration and greater geographic extent of the wind energy stressor (collision and barotrauma) have impacted the species. These hypotheses can be evaluated and updated over time within our framework of pre–post impact monitoring and modeling. Our approach provides the foundation for a strategic evidence‐based conservation system and contributes to a growing preponderance of evidence from multiple lines of inquiry that bat species are declining.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2019

Effects of invasive plants on fire regimes and postfire vegetation diversity in an arid ecosystem

We assessed the impacts of co‐occurring invasive plant species on fire regimes and postfire native communities in the Mojave Desert, western USA. We analyzed the distribution and co‐occurrence patterns of three invasive annual grasses (Bromus rubens, Bromus tectorum, and Schismus spp.) known to alter fuel conditions and community structure, and an invasive forb (Erodium cicutarium) which dominates postfire sites. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for each of the four taxa and analyzed field plot data to assess the relationship between invasives and fire frequency, years postfire, and the impacts on postfire native herbaceous diversity. Most of the Mojave Desert is highly suitable for at least one of the four invasive species, and 76% of the ecoregion is predicted to have high or very high suitability for the joint occurrence of B. rubens and B. tectorum and 42% high or very high suitability for the joint occurrence of the two Bromus species and E. cicutarium. Analysis of cover from plot data indicated two or more of the species occurred in 77% of the plots, with their cover doubling with each additional species. We found invasive cover in burned plots increased for the first 20 years postfire and recorded two to five times more cover in burned than unburned plots. Analysis also indicated that native species diversity and evenness as negatively associated with higher levels of relative cover of the four invasive taxa. Our findings revealed overlapping distributions of the four invasives; a strong relationship between the invasives and fire frequency; and significant negative impacts of invasives on native herbaceous diversity in the Mojave. This suggests predicting the distributions of co‐occurring invasive species, especially transformer species, will provide a better understanding of where native‐dominated communities are most vulnerable to transformations following fire or other disturbances.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2019

Deer do not affect short-term rates of vegetation recovery in overwash fans on Fire Island after Hurricane Sandy

1. Coastal resilience is threatened as storm-induced disturbances become more frequent and intense with anticipated changes in weather patterns. After severe storms, rapid recovery of vegetation, especially that of dune-stabilizing plants, is a fundamental property of coastal resilience. Herbivores may affect resilience by selectively foraging palatable plant species in disturbed areas. Knowledge of herbivore impacts to dune recovery after storm events is crucial to management of coastal properties. 2. We combined imagery classification, wildlife monitoring, and trend analysis to investigate effects of white-tailed deer on recovery rates of vegetation over four years post-storm in nine areas overwashed. We estimated local deer density with trail cameras, coupled deer density with primary productivity, and assessed the relationship between deer density and rates of vegetation recovery in overwash fans. 3. Pre-storm vegetation cover consisted of shrubs and sporadic patches of beachgrass. Post-storm cover was dominated by beachgrass. At current recovery rates, vegetation coverage will return to pre-storm conditions within the decade, though community transition from grasses to shrubs will take longer and will vary by site with the rate of dune formation. 4. The effect of deer on rates of vegetation recovery was negative, but not statistically significant nor biologically compelling. Although effects of trampling are evident in classified imagery, deer foraging on beachgrass had little effect on rates of spread throughout overwash fans. 5. Our research provides perhaps the first assessment of the effects of deer on post-storm vegetation recovery. While the rate of spread of the primary dune-building plant species was not deleteriously affected by deer, locally high deer densities will likely affect the establishment and development of more palatable herbs and shrubs.

New York↗
USGS2019

Differential plague susceptibility in species and populations of prairie dogs

Laboratory trials conducted over the past decade at U.S. Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center indicate that wild populations of prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp.) display different degrees of susceptibility to experimental challenge with fully virulent Yersinia pestis , the causative agent of plague. We evaluated patterns in prairie dog susceptibility to plague to determine whether the historical occurrence of plague at location of capture was related to survival times of prairie dogs challenged with Y. pestis . We found that black-tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) from South Dakota (captured prior to the detection of plague in the state), Gunnison's prairie dogs ( Cynomys gunnisoni ) from Colorado, and Utah prairie dogs ( Cynomys parvidens ) from Utah were most susceptible to plague. Though the susceptibility of black-tailed prairie dogs in South Dakota compared with western locations supports our hypothesis regarding historical exposure, both Colorado and Utah prairie dogs have a long history of exposure to plague. It is possible that for these populations, genetic isolation/bottle necks have made them more susceptible to plague outbreaks.

Colorado, South Dakota, Utah↗
USGS2019

Landscape genetics reveals unique and shared effects of urbanization for two sympatric pool-breeding amphibians

Metapopulation-structured species can be negatively affected when landscape fragmentation impairs connectivity. We investigated the effects of urbanization on genetic diversity and gene flow for two sympatric amphibian species, spotted salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum ) and wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), across a large (>35,000 km 2 ) landscape in Maine, USA, containing numerous natural and anthropogenic gradients. Isolation-by-distance (IBD) patterns differed between the species. Spotted salamanders showed a linear and relatively high variance relationship between genetic and geographic distances ( r = .057, p < .001), whereas wood frogs exhibited a strongly nonlinear and lower variance relationship ( r = 0.429, p < .001). Scale dependence analysis of IBD found gene flow has its most predictable influence (strongest IBD correlations) at distances up to 9 km for spotted salamanders and up to 6 km for wood frogs. Estimated effective migration surfaces revealed contrasting patterns of high and low genetic diversity and gene flow between the two species. Population isolation, quantified as the mean IBD residuals for each population, was associated with local urbanization and less genetic diversity in both species. The influence of geographic proximity and urbanization on population connectivity was further supported by distance-based redundancy analysis and multiple matrix regression with randomization. Resistance surface modeling found interpopulation connectivity to be influenced by developed land cover, light roads, interstates, and topography for both species, plus secondary roads and rivers for wood frogs. Our results highlight the influence of anthropogenic landscape features within the context of natural features and broad spatial genetic patterns, in turn supporting the premise that while urbanization significantly restricts interpopulation connectivity for wood frogs and spotted salamanders, specific landscape elements have unique effects on these two sympatric species.

Maine↗
USGS2019

Genomic pedigree reconstruction identifies predictors of mating and reproductive success in an invasive vertebrate

The persistence of an invasive species is influenced by its reproductive ecology, and a successful control program must operate on this premise. However, the reproductive ecology of invasive species may be enigmatic due to factors that also limit their management, such as cryptic coloration and behavior. We explored the mating and reproductive ecology of the invasive Brown Treesnake (BTS : Boiga irregularis ) by reconstructing a multigenerational genomic pedigree based on 654 single nucleotide polymorphisms for a geographically closed population established in 2004 on Guam ( N = 426). The pedigree allowed annual estimates of individual mating and reproductive success to be inferred for snakes in the study population over a 14‐year period. We then employed generalized linear mixed models to gauge how well phenotypic and genomic data could predict sex‐specific annual mating and reproductive success. Average snout–vent length (SVL), average body condition index (BCI), and trappability were significantly related to annual mating success for males, with average SVL also related to annual mating success for females. Male and female annual reproductive success was positively affected by SVL, BCI, and trappability. Surprisingly, the degree to which individuals were inbred had no effect on annual mating or reproductive success. When juxtaposed with current control methods, these results indicate that baited traps, a common interdiction tool, may target fecund BTS in some regards but not others. Our study emphasizes the importance of reproductive ecology as a focus for improving BTS control and promotes genomic pedigree reconstruction for such an endeavor in this invasive species and others.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Understanding reproductive allometry in turtles: A slippery “slope”

Measures of reproductive output in turtles are generally positively correlated with female body size. However, a full understanding of reproductive allometry in turtles requires logarithmic transformation of reproductive and body size variables prior to regression analyses. This allows for slope comparisons with expected linear or cubic relationships for linear to linear and linear to volumetric variables, respectively. We compiled scaling data using this approach from published and unpublished turtle studies (46 populations of 25 species from eight families) to quantify patterns among taxa. Our results suggest that for log–log comparisons of clutch size, egg width, egg mass, clutch mass, and pelvic aperture width to shell length, all scale hypoallometrically despite theoretical predictions of isometry. Clutch size generally scaled at ~1.7 to 2.0 (compared to an isometric expectation of 3.0), egg width at ~0.5 (compared to an expectation of 1.0), egg mass at ~1.1 to 1.3 (3.0), clutch mass at ~2.5 to 2.8 (3.0), and pelvic aperture width at 0.8–0.9 (1.0). We also found preliminary evidence that scaling may differ across years and clutches even in the same population, as well as across populations of the same species. Future investigators should aspire to collect data on all these reproductive parameters and to report log–log allometric analyses to test our preliminary conclusions regarding reproductive allometry in turtles.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects

A long‐standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non‐native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense‐free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non‐native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century. Using a census of all 58 non‐native conifer‐specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects). We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non‐native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non‐native herbivorous insects. Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non‐native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (R2 = 0.91) Synthesis and applications. With this advancement, the risk to other conifer host species and regions can be assessed, and regulatory and pest management efforts can be more efficiently prioritized.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2020

Habitat of the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) in San Francisco Bay

Understanding habitat associations is vital for conservation of at‐risk marsh‐endemic wildlife species, particularly those under threat from sea level rise. We modeled environmental and habitat associations of the marsh‐endemic, Federally endangered salt marsh harvest mouse ( Reithrodontomys raviventris , RERA) and co‐occurrence with eight associated small mammal species from annual trap data, 1998–2014, in six estuarine marshes in North San Francisco Bay, California. Covariates included microhabitat metrics of elevation and vegetation species and cover; and landscape metrics of latitude–longitude, distance to anthropogenic features, and habitat patch size. The dominant cover was pickleweed ( Salicornia pacifica ) with 86% mean cover and 37 cm mean height, and bare ground with about 10% mean cover. We tested 38 variants of Bayesian network (BN) models to determine covariates that best account for presence of RERA and of all nine small mammal species. Best models had lowest complexity and highest classification accuracy. Among RERA presence models, three best BN models used covariates of latitude–longitude, distance to paved roads, and habitat patch size, with 0% error of false presence, 20% error of false nonpresence, and 20% overall error. The all‐species presence models suggested that within the pickleweed marsh environment, RERA are mostly habitat generalists. Accounting for presence of other species did not improve prediction of RERA. Habitat attributes compared between RERA and the next most frequently captured species, California vole ( Microtus californicus ), suggested substantial habitat overlap, with RERA habitat being somewhat higher in marsh elevation, greater in percent cover of the dominant plant species, closer to urban areas, further from agricultural areas, and, perhaps most significant, larger in continuous size of marsh patch. Findings will inform conservation management of the marsh environment for RERA by identifying best microhabitat elements, landscape attributes, and adverse interspecific interactions.

California↗
USGS2019

Using incidental mark-encounter data to improve survival estimation

Obtaining robust survival estimates is critical, but sample size limitations often result in imprecise estimates or the failure to obtain estimates for population subgroups. Concurrently, data are often recorded on incidental reencounters of marked individuals, but these incidental data are often unused in survival analyses. We evaluated the utility of supplementing a traditional survival dataset with incidental data on marked individuals that were collected ad hoc. We used a continuous time‐to‐event exponential survival model to leverage the matching information contained in both datasets and assessed differences in survival among adult and juvenile and resident and translocated Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ). Incorporation of the incidental mark‐encounter data improved precision of all annual survival point estimates, with a 3.4%–37.5% reduction in the spread of the 95% Bayesian credible intervals. We were able to estimate annual survival for three subgroup combinations that were previously inestimable. Point estimates between the radiotelemetry and combined datasets were within |0.029| percentage points of each other, suggesting minimal to no bias induced by the incidental data. Annual survival rates were high (>0.89) for resident adult and juvenile tortoises in both study sites and for translocated adults in the southern site. Annual survival rates for translocated juveniles at both sites and translocated adults in the northern site were between 0.73 and 0.76. At both sites, translocated adults and juveniles had significantly lower survival than resident adults. High mortality in the northern site was driven primarily by a single pulse in mortalities. Using exponential survival models to leverage matching information across traditional survival studies and incidental data on marked individuals may serve as a useful tool to improve the precision and estimability of survival rates. This can improve the efficacy of understanding basic population ecology and population monitoring for imperiled species.

Nevada↗
USGS2013

Foraging area fidelity for Kemp's ridleys in the Gulf of Mexico

For many marine species, locations of key foraging areas are not well defined. We used satellite telemetry and switching state-space modeling (SSM) to identify distinct foraging areas used by Kemp's ridley turtles ( Lepidochelys kempii ) tagged after nesting during 1998–2011 at Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, USA (PAIS; N = 22), and Rancho Nuevo, Tamaulipas, Mexico (RN; N = 9). Overall, turtles traveled a mean distance of 793.1 km (±347.8 SD) to foraging sites, where 24 of 31 turtles showed foraging area fidelity (FAF) over time (N = 22 in USA, N = 2 in Mexico). Multiple turtles foraged along their migratory route, prior to arrival at their "final" foraging sites. We identified new foraging "hotspots" where adult female Kemp's ridley turtles spent 44% of their time during tracking (i.e., 2641/6009 tracking days in foraging mode). Nearshore Gulf of Mexico waters served as foraging habitat for all turtles tracked in this study; final foraging sites were located in water <68 m deep and a mean distance of 33.2 km (±25.3 SD) from the nearest mainland coast. Distance to release site, distance to mainland shore, annual mean sea surface temperature, bathymetry, and net primary production were significant predictors of sites where turtles spent large numbers of days in foraging mode. Spatial similarity of particular foraging sites selected by different turtles over the 13-year tracking period indicates that these areas represent critical foraging habitat, particularly in waters off Louisiana. Furthermore, the wide distribution of foraging sites indicates that a foraging corridor exists for Kemp's ridleys in the Gulf. Our results highlight the need for further study of environmental and bathymetric components of foraging sites and prey resources contained therein, as well as international cooperation to protect essential at-sea foraging habitats for this imperiled species.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems

Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entire cycle through its normal range of variation. For some systems, the ecologically relevant period can be relatively short (eg, tidal systems), for others it can be decadal (eg, prairie wetlands). We explore the concept of alternative stable states in unstable systems using the highly dynamic wetland ecosystems of North America's Prairie Pothole Region. The communities in these wetland ecosystems transition through multiple states in response to decadal‐long climate oscillations that cyclically influence ponded‐water depth, permanence, and chemistry. The perspective gained by considering dynamic systems in the context of stable‐state theory allows for an increased understanding of how these systems respond to changing drivers that can push them past tipping points into alternative states. Incorporation of concepts inherent to stable‐state theory has been suggested as a key scientific element upon which to base sustainable environmental management.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2020

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence‐environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi‐site count and capture‐recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler ( Cardellina pusilla ), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first‐year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio‐temporal distribution of samples between count and capture‐recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad‐scale multi‐site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

RAPTURE (RAD capture) panel facilitates analyses characterizing sea lamprey reproductive ecology and movement dynamics

Genomic tools are lacking for invasive and native populations of sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ). Our objective was to discover single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci to conduct pedigree analyses to quantify reproductive contributions of adult sea lampreys and dispersion of sibling larval sea lampreys of different ages in Great Lakes tributaries. Additional applications of data were explored using additional geographically expansive samples. We used restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RAD‐Seq) to discover genetic variation in Duffins Creek (DC), Ontario, Canada, and the St. Clair River (SCR), Michigan, USA. We subsequently developed RAD capture baits to genotype 3,446 RAD loci that contained 11,970 SNPs. Based on RAD capture assays, estimates of variance in SNP allele frequency among five Great Lakes tributary populations (mean F ST 0.008; range 0.00–0.018) were concordant with previous microsatellite‐based studies; however, outlier loci were identified that contributed substantially to spatial population genetic structure. At finer scales within streams, simulations indicated that accuracy in genetic pedigree reconstruction was high when 200 or 500 independent loci were used, even in situations of high spawner abundance (e.g., 1,000 adults). Based on empirical collections of larval sea lamprey genotypes, we found that age‐1 and age‐2 families of full and half‐siblings were widely but nonrandomly distributed within stream reaches sampled. Using the genomic scale set of SNP loci developed in this study, biologists can rapidly genotype sea lamprey in non‐native and native ranges to investigate questions pertaining to population structuring and reproductive ecology at previously unattainable scales.

Michigan, Ontario, Wisconsin↗