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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Fire and grazing impacts on plant diversity and alien plant invasions in the southern Sierra Nevada

Patterns of native and alien plant diversity in response to disturbance were examined along an elevational gradient in blue oak savanna, chaparral, and coniferous forests. Total species richness, alien species richness, and alien cover declined with elevation, at scales from 1 to 1000 m 2 . We found no support for the hypothesis that community diversity inhibits alien invasion. At the 1-m 2 point scale, where we would expect competitive interactions between the largely herbaceous flora to be most intense, alien species richness as well as alien cover increased with increasing native species richness in all communities. This suggests that aliens are limited not by the number of native competitors, but by resources that affect establishment of both natives and aliens. Blue oak savannas were heavily dominated by alien species and consistently had more alien than native species at the 1-m 2 scale. All of these aliens are annuals, and it is widely thought that they have displaced native bunchgrasses. If true, this means that aliens have greatly increased species richness. Alternatively, there is a rich regional flora of native annual forbs that could have dominated these grasslands prior to displacement by alien grasses. On our sites, livestock grazing increased the number of alien species and alien cover only slightly over that of sites free of livestock grazing for more than a century, indicating some level of permanency to this invasion. In chaparral, both diversity and aliens increased markedly several years after fire. Invasive species are rare in undisturbed shrublands, and alien propagules fail to survive the natural crown fires in these ecosystems. Thus, aliens necessarily must colonize after fire and, as a consequence, time since fire is an important determinant of invasive presence. Blue oak savannas are an important propagule source for alien species because they maintain permanent populations of all alien species encountered in postfire chaparral, and because the vegetation mosaic in this region places them in proximity to chaparral. The speed at which alien propagules reach a burned site and the speed at which the shrublands return to their former closed-canopy condition determine alien invasion. Frequent burning of this vegetation alters the balance in favor of alien invasion. In the higher-elevation coniferous forests, species diversity was a function of fire severity and time since fire. High-intensity fires create gaps that decrease canopy coverage and increase light levels and nutrients for an ephemeral successional flora. Few species have persistent seed banks, so the time since fire is an important determinant of colonization success. There was a highly significant interaction between fire severity and time since fire for understory cover, species richness, and alien richness and cover. Understory was sparse in the first year after fire, particularly in low-severity burns, and increased substantially several years after fire, particularly on high-severity burns. Both fire severity and time since fire affected alien species richness and dominance. Coniferous forests had about one-third as many alien species as the foothill oak savannas, and fewer than half of the species were shared between these communities. Unburned coniferous forests were largely free of alien species, whereas some burned sites had a significant alien presence, which presents a challenge for fire restoration of these forests.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2004

Assessing rarity of species with low detectability: Lichens in Pacific Northwest forests

We show how simple statistical analyses of systematically collected inventory data can be used to provide reliable information about the distribution and habitat associations of rare species. Using an existing design-based sampling grid on which epiphytic macrolichens had been inventoried in the Northwest Forest Plan area of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, we (1) estimate frequencies and standard errors for each of 25 lichen species having special management designation (i.e., Survey and Manage), (2) assess the probability that individual species were associated with specific land allocation and forest stand age classifications, and (3) provide estimates of sample sizes necessary to ensure sufficient detections for these analyses. We conclude with a discussion of management and conservation information needs that extant data can satisfy and identify advantages and limitations of random vs. nonrandom sampling strategies. Combining design-assisted and model-assisted approaches can overcome some of the limitations of either single strategy.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2003

Ecological implications of bovine tuberculosis in African Buffalo herds

Following the recent invasion of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) into the Kruger National Park, South Africa, we conducted a study on the maintenance host, African buffalo, to investigate associations between BTB prevalence and calf:cow ratio, age structure, body condition, and endoparasite load. Statistical analyses compared herds of zero, medium (1–40%), and high (>40%) BTB prevalence. To control for ecological variation across the park we collected data in northern, central, and southern regions and restricted some analyses to particular regions of the park. Body condition declined over the course of the 2001 dry season, and buffaloes in the southern region of the park, with the highest BTB prevalence, were in worse condition than buffaloes in the northern region (which receives less annual rainfall but is still virtually BTB-free). Herd-level analyses of the entire park, the south and central regions, and just the southern region all indicated that herds of higher BTB prevalence were in worse condition and lost condition faster through the dry season than herds of lower BTB prevalence. Fecal endoparasite egg counts increased during the dry season and were associated with both decreased body condition and increased BTB prevalence. Although we did not detect any obvious effect of BTB on the age structure of the buffalo population, our findings indicate early symptoms of wider scale BTB-related ecological disturbances: buffalo herds with high BTB prevalence appear more vulnerable to drought (because of a decrease in body condition and an increase in endoparasite load), and because lions selectively kill weak buffaloes their prey base is accumulating a disproportionately high prevalence of BTB, to which lions are susceptible. Rea10.1890/02-5266d More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs

Kruger National Park↗
USGS2004

Agricultural ponds support amphibian populations

In some agricultural regions, natural wetlands are scarce, and constructed agricultural ponds may represent important alternative breeding habitats for amphibians. Properly managed, these agricultural ponds may effectively increase the total amount of breeding habitat and help to sustain populations. We studied small, constructed agricultural ponds in southeastern Minnesota to assess their value as amphibian breeding sites. Our study examined habitat factors associated with amphibian reproduction at two spatial scales: the pond and the landscape surrounding the pond. We found that small agricultural ponds in southeastern Minnesota provided breeding habitat for at least 10 species of amphibians. Species richness and multispecies reproductive success were more closely associated with characteristics of the pond (water quality, vegetation, and predators) compared with characteristics of the surrounding landscape, but individual species were associated with both pond and landscape variables. Ponds surrounded by row crops had similar species richness and reproductive success compared with natural wetlands and ponds surrounded by nongrazed pasture. Ponds used for watering livestock had elevated concentrations of phosphorus, higher turbidity, and a trend toward reduced amphibian reproductive success. Species richness was highest in small ponds, ponds with lower total nitrogen concentrations, tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma tigrinum ) present, and lacking fish. Multispecies reproductive success was best in ponds with lower total nitrogen concentrations, less emergent vegetation, and lacking fish. Habitat factors associated with higher reproductive success varied among individual species. We conclude that small, constructed farm ponds, properly managed, may help sustain amphibian populations in landscapes where natural wetland habitat is rare. We recommend management actions such as limiting livestock access to the pond to improve water quality, reducing nitrogen input, and avoiding the introduction of fish.

Minnesota↗
USGS2004

Effects of an insecticide on amphibians in large-scale experimental ponds

We examined the effects of the insecticide carbaryl on larval amphibian communities in large-scale experimental ponds. Tadpoles of two anurans, Woodhouse's toad ( Bufo woodhousii ) and southern leopard Frog ( Rana sphenocephala ), were reared in ponds (800 m 3 volume) to determine the effects of tadpole density and carbaryl exposure on mass at metamorphosis and on time and survival to metamorphosis. Exposure to carbaryl significantly affected toads at metamorphosis, but not leopard frogs. Carbaryl exposure nearly doubled toad survival compared to controls; this effect may be attributable to an indirect effect of earbaryl increasing algal food resources. The competitive environment (i.e., density) and carbaryl exposure significantly affected the trade-off between mass and time to metamorphosis for toads. Our study is the first to demonstrate that in pond communities where predation and competition may be strong, short-lived insecticides can significantly alter the community dynamics of amphibians.

Boone County, Callaway County↗
USGS2004

Mortality sensitivity in life-stage simulation analysis: A case study of southern sea otters

Currently, there are no generally recognized approaches for linking detailed mortality and pathology data to population-level analyses of extinction risk. We used a combination of analytical and simulation-based analyses to examine 20 years of age- and sex-specific mortality data for southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ), and we applied results to project the efficacy of alternative conservation strategies. Population recovery of the southern sea otter has been slow (rate of population increase λ = 1.05) compared to other recovering populations ( λ = 1.17–1.20 ), and the population declined ( λ = 0.975 ) between 1995 and 1999. Age-based Leslie matrices were developed to explore explanations for the slow recovery and recent decline in the southern sea other population. An elasticity analysis was performed to predict effects of proportional changes in stage-specific reproductive or survival rates on the rate of population increase. A life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) was developed to evaluate the impact of changing age- and cause-specific mortality rates on λ . The information used to develop these models was derived from death assemblage, pathology, and live population census data to examine the sensitivity of sea otter population growth to different sources of mortality (e.g., disease and starvation, direct human take [fisheries, gun shot, boat strike, oil pollution], mating trauma and intraspecific aggression, shark bites, and unknown). We used resampling simulations to generate random combinations of vital rates for a large number of matrix replicates and drew on these to estimate potential effects of mortality sources on population growth ( λ ). Our analyses suggest management actions that are likely and unlikely to promote recovery of the southern sea otter and more broadly indicate a methodology to better utilize cause-of-death data in conservation decision-making.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2004

Cormorant predation and the population dynamics of walleye and yellow perch in Oneida Lake

Double-crested Cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) increased dramatically in North America during the 1990s, providing the opportunity to study the effects of an increase of a top predator on an existing predator-prey system. In Oneida Lake, New York, USA, Double-crested Cormorants were first observed nesting in 1984 and had increased to over 360 nesting pairs by 2000. Concomitant with this increase in piscivorous birds was a decrease in the adult walleye ( Stizostedion vitreum ) and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) populations. Analysis of a 40-yr data series shows higher mortality of subadults (age 1-2 yr perch and age 1-3 yr walleye) for both species in the 1990s compared to the previous three decades. Cormorant diet was investigated from 1995 to 2000 using a combination of cast pellets, regurgitants, and stomach analysis. Walleye and yellow perch were a major portion of the cormorant diet during these years (40-82% by number). The number of subadult walleye and yellow perch consumed by cormorants suggests that the increase in subadult mortality can be explained by predation from cormorants. Mean mortality rates of adult percids attributed to cormorant predation were 1.1% per year for walleye and 7.7% per year for yellow perch. Our analysis suggests that predation by cormorants on subadult percids is a major factor contributing to the decline in both the walleye and the yellow perch populations in Oneida Lake. Other ecosystem changes (zebra mussels, lower nutrient loading, decrease in alternate prey) are not likely explanations because the potential mechanisms involved are not consistent with auxiliary data from the lake and would not affect subadult mortality. The likely impact of bird predation on percid populations in Oneida Lake occurs because cormorants feed on larger fish that are beyond the size range where compensatory mechanisms are important.

New York↗
USGS2004

Fishing for lobsters indirectly increases epidemics in sea urchins

Two ecological paradigms, the trophic cascade and the host-density threshold in disease, interact in the kelp-forest ecosystem to structure the community. To investigate what happens when a trophic cascade pushes a host population over a host-threshold density, I analyzed a 20-year data set of kelp forest communities at 16 sites in the region of the Channel Islands National Park, California, USA. Historically, lobsters, and perhaps other predators, kept urchin populations at low levels and kelp forests developed a community-level trophic cascade. In geographic areas where the main predators on urchins were fished, urchin populations increased to the extent that they overgrazed algae and starvation eventually limited urchin-population growth. Despite the limitation of urchin population size by food availability, urchin densities, at times, well exceeded the host-density threshold for epidemics. An urchin-specific bacterial disease entered the region after 1992 and acted as a density-dependent mortality source. Dense populations were more likely to experience epidemics and suffer higher mortality. Disease did not reduce the urchin population at a site to the density that predators previously did. Therefore, disease did not fully replace predators in the trophic cascade. These results indicate how fishing top predators can indirectly favor disease transmission in prey populations.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2004

Effects of an introduced pathogen and fire exclusion on the demography of sugar pine

An introduced pathogen, white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ), has caused declines in five-needled pines throughout North America. Simultaneously, fire exclusion has resulted in dense stands in many forest types, which may create additional stress for these generally shade-intolerant pines. Fire exclusion also allows fuels to accumulate, and it is unclear how affected populations will respond to the reintroduction of fire. Although white pine blister rust and fire exclusion are widely recognized threats, long-term demographic data that document the effects of these stressors are rare. We present population trends from 2168 individuals over 5–15 years for an affected species, sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana ), at several burned and unburned sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Size-based matrix models indicate that most unburned populations have negative growth rates (λ range: 0.82–1.04). The growth rate of most populations was, however, indistinguishable from replacement levels (λ = 1.0), implying that, if populations are indeed declining, the progression of any such decline is slow, and longer observations are needed to clearly determine population trends. We found significant differences among population growth rates, primarily due to variation in recruitment rates. Deaths associated with blister rust and stress (i.e., resource competition) were common, suggesting significant roles for both blister rust and fire exclusion in determining population trajectories. Data from 15 prescribed fires showed that the immediate effect of burning was the death of many small trees, with the frequency of mortality returning to pre-fire levels within five years. In spite of a poor prognosis for sugar pine, our results suggest that we have time to apply and refine management strategies to protect this species.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2004

Population structure and inbreeding vary with successional stage in created Spartina alterniflora marshes

Recruitment patterns in clonal plant populations are predicted to vary with seed dispersal capability and disturbance regime, such that species with small, widely dispersed seeds will become increasingly dominated by vegetative recruitment on disturbed areas following early colonization. Subsequent mortality due to competitive or stochastic effects is then predicted to cause a gradual decline in both clonal diversity and the ability of surviving clones to avoid geitonogamous mating and possible inbreeding depression. We tested predictions of these hypotheses by comparing four adjacent populations of the salt marsh plant, Spartina alterniflora, ranging in age from 2 to ∼50 yr, by measuring fine‐scale genetic structure at the level of both ramets and genets, and the rate of inbreeding. For this purpose, we sampled maternal tissue and seeds from discrete patches in the field and then genotyped both maternal and seedling tissue (germinated in a growth chamber) using standard molecular protocols. As predicted, we observed an increase in clonal diversity (measured as the complement of the Simpson Index corrected for finite sample sizes, 1 − D ) up to a maximum of 0.71 within 3‐m 2 patches at 16 yr, declining to 0.55 by ∼50 yr. Local recruitment of seedlings was evident as genetic structure occurring at the level of patches, as measured by the fixation index, θ, which was inversely correlated with diversity ( R 2 > 0.90 at all patch scales). Outcrossing rates were positively associated with clonal diversity, with the highest level (89%) at an intermediate level of 1 − D. The greatest selfing (32%) occurred in young (2‐yr‐old) patches with low diversity. Biparental inbreeding was minimal in all populations, never exceeding 1%. Inbreeding depression was inferred to be severe, as evidenced by near‐zero adult inbreeding coefficients. These results suggest a possible fitness trade‐off between clonal growth and the opportunity for outcrossing. We recommend that restoration plantings of clonal species with limited sexual recruitment capabilities should be designed to ensure adequate clonal diversity for the avoidance of inbreeding and the ability to adapt to subsequent environmental disturbances.

Louisiana↗
USGS2005

The influence of forest management on headwater stream amphibians at multiple spatial scales

Understanding how habitat structure at multiple spatial scales influences vertebrates can facilitate development of effective conservation strategies, but until recently most studies have focused on habitat relationships only at fine or intermediate scales. In particular, patterns of amphibian occurrence across broad spatial scales are not well studied, despite recent concerns over regional and global declines. We examined habitat relationships of larval and neotenic Pacific giant salamanders (Dicamptodon tenebrosus), larval and adult Pacific tailed frogs (Ascaphus truei) (hereafter “tailed frogs”), and torrent salamanders (Rhyacotriton spp.) at three spatial scales (2-m sample unit, intermediate, and drainage). In 1998 and 1999, we captured 1568 amphibians in 702 sample units in 16 randomly chosen drainages in the Oregon Coast Range. We examined species–habitat associations at each spatial scale using an information-theoretic approach of analysis to rank sets of logistic regression models developed a priori. At the 2-m sample unit scale, all groups were negatively associated with proportion of small substrate and positively associated with stream width or elevation. At the intermediate scale, Pacific giant salamanders, adult tailed frogs, and torrent salamanders were positively associated with presence of a 46-m band of forested habitat on each side of the stream, and larval tailed frogs were positively associated with presence of forest >105 years old. Aspect was important for Pacific giant salamanders and larval tailed frogs at the intermediate scale. At the drainage scale, all groups except torrent salamanders were positively associated with proportion of stream length having forested bands >46 m in width, but further analysis suggests narrower bands may provide adequate protection for some groups. Population- and community-level responses at broad spatial scales may be reflected in species-level responses at fine spatial scales, and our results suggest that geophysical and ecological characteristics, as well as measures of instream habitat, can be used together to prioritize conservation emphasis areas for stream amphibians in managed landscapes.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2005

Evaluation of ecological risk to populations of a threatened plant from an invasive biocontrol insect

Controversy exists over estimation of ecological risk in biological control. At present, the risk to the rare, federally listed Pitcher's thistle ( Cirsium pitcheri ) in North America from Rhinocyllus conicus , a biological control weevil now feeding on many native thistles, is unknown. We hypothesized that quantification of host specificity and potential phenological overlap between insect and plant would improve assessment of the magnitude of risk. In laboratory host specificity tests, we found no significant difference in R. conicus feeding or oviposition preference between the rare C. pitcheri and the targeted exotic weed ( Carduus nutans ) or between C. pitcheri and Platte thistle ( C. canescens ), a closely related native North American species known to be affected by R. conicus . In a garden environment, R. conicus spontaneously found, oviposited, and developed completely on C. pitcheri . Taller plants with more flower heads were significantly more vulnerable, suggesting that the greatest impact is likely to be on individuals that generally contribute the most to recruitment and population persistence. For eight sites in two national parks over three years, the calculated period of expected R. conicus activity overlapped 99% and 78% of the flower heads initiated by C. pitcheri in the southern and the northern park, respectively. A demographic model suggests that population growth rate (λ) of C. pitcheri will decrease from 0.9897 to 0.8686, while time to halve the population will decrease from 66.9 to 4.9 years, under the conservative assumption that oviposition by R. conicus on C. pitcheri will occur at the same rate as on the related C. canescens . Calculated decreases in λ and t 0.5 are larger if the rate of oviposition actually observed in the laboratory tests is used. These results indicate that the weevil poses a serious quantitative, demographic risk to the threatened C. pitcheri . The study supports the suggestion that ecological data can be used to improve the quantification of risk to native nontarget plant populations within the potential physiological host range of a biological control insect.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2005

Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950-2000

In order to understand the magnitude, direction, and geographic distribution of land-use changes, we evaluated land-use trends in U.S. counties during the latter half of the 20th century. Our paper synthesizes the dominant spatial and temporal trends in population, agriculture, and urbanized land uses, using a variety of data sources and an ecoregion classification as a frame of reference. A combination of increasing attractiveness of nonmetropolitan areas in the period 1970–2000, decreasing household size, and decreasing density of settlement has resulted in important trends in the patterns of developed land. By 2000, the area of low-density, exurban development beyond the urban fringe occupied nearly 15 times the area of higher density urbanized development. Efficiency gains, mechanization, and agglomeration of agricultural concerns has resulted in data that show cropland area to be stable throughout the Corn Belt and parts of the West between 1950 and 2000, but decreasing by about 22% east of the Mississippi River. We use a regional case study of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions to focus in more detail on the land-cover changes resulting from these dynamics. Dominating were land-cover changes associated with the timber practices in the forested plains ecoregions and urbanization in the piedmont ecoregions. Appalachian ecoregions show the slowest rates of land-cover change. The dominant trends of tremendous exurban growth, throughout the United States, and conversion and abandonment of agricultural lands, especially in the eastern United States, have important implications because they affect large areas of the country, the functioning of ecological systems, and the potential for restoration.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2005

Interaction of beaver and elk herbivory reduces standing crop of willow

Populations of beaver and willow have not thrived in riparian environments that are heavily browsed by livestock or ungulates, such as elk. The interaction of beaver and elk herbivory may be an important mechanism underlying beaver and willow declines in this competitive environment. We conducted a field experiment that compared the standing crop of willow three years after simulated beaver cutting on paired plants with and without intense elk browsing (∼85% utilization rate). Simulated beaver cutting with intense elk browsing produced willow that was small (biomass and diameter) and short, with far fewer, but longer, shoots and a higher percentage of dead biomass. In contrast, simulated beaver cutting without elk browsing produced willow that was large, tall, and leafy, with many more, but shorter, shoots (highly branched) and a lower percentage of dead biomass. Total stem biomass after three years was 10 times greater on unbrowsed plants than on browsed plants. Unbrowsed plants recovered 84% of their pre-cut biomass after only two growing seasons, whereas browsed plants recovered only 6%. Thus, the interaction of beaver cutting and elk browsing strongly suppressed the standing crop of willow. We predict that a lack of willow suitable as winter food for beaver can cause beaver populations to decline, creating a feedback mechanism that reduces beaver and willow populations. Thus, intense herbivory by ungulates or livestock can disrupt beaver–willow mutualisms that naturally occur in less competitive environments.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2005

Landscape composition, patch size, and distance to edges: Interactions affecting duck reproductive success

Prairies and other North American grasslands, although highly fragmented, provide breeding habitat for a diverse array of species, including species of tremendous economic and ecological importance. Conservation and management of these species requires some understanding of how reproductive success is affected by edge effects, patch size, and characteristics of the landscape. We examined how differences in the percentage of grassland in the landscape influenced the relationships between the success of nests of upland-nesting ducks and (1) field size and (2) distance to nearest field and wetland edges. We collected data on study areas composed of 15–20% grassland and areas composed of 45–55% grassland in central North Dakota, USA during the 1996 and 1997 nesting seasons. Daily survival rates (DSRs) of duck nests were greater in study areas with 45–55% grassland than with 15–20% grassland. Within study areas, we detected a curvilinear relationship between DSR and field size: DSRs were highest in small and large fields and lowest in moderately sized fields. In study areas with 15–20% grassland, there was no relationship between probability of hatching and distance to nearest field edge, whereas in study areas with 45–55% grassland, there was a positive relationship between these two variables. Results of this study support the conclusion that both landscape composition and configuration affect reproductive success of ground-nesting birds. We are prompted to question conservation strategies that favor clustering moderately sized patches of nesting habitat within agricultural landscapes because our results show that such patches would have low nest success, most likely caused by predation. Understanding the pattern of nest success, and the predator–prey mechanisms that produce the pattern, will enable design of patch configurations that are most conducive to meeting conservation goals.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2005

Terrestrial C sequestration at elevated CO2 and temperature: the role of dissolved organic N loss

We used a simple model of carbon–nitrogen (C–N) interactions in terrestrial ecosystems to examine the responses to elevated CO 2 and to elevated CO 2 plus warming in ecosystems that had the same total nitrogen loss but that differed in the ratio of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loss. We postulate that DIN losses can be curtailed by higher N demand in response to elevated CO 2 , but that DON losses cannot. We also examined simulations in which DON losses were held constant, were proportional to the amount of soil organic matter, were proportional to the soil C:N ratio, or were proportional to the rate of decomposition. We found that the mode of N loss made little difference to the short‐term (<60 years) rate of carbon sequestration by the ecosystem, but high DON losses resulted in much lower carbon sequestration in the long term than did low DON losses. In the short term, C sequestration was fueled by an internal redistribution of N from soils to vegetation and by increases in the C:N ratio of soils and vegetation. This sequestration was about three times larger with elevated CO 2 and warming than with elevated CO 2 alone. After year 60, C sequestration was fueled by a net accumulation of N in the ecosystem, and the rate of sequestration was about the same with elevated CO 2 and warming as with elevated CO 2 alone. With high DON losses, the ecosystem either sequestered C slowly after year 60 (when DON losses were constant or proportional to soil organic matter) or lost C (when DON losses were proportional to the soil C:N ratio or to decomposition). We conclude that changes in long‐term C sequestration depend not only on the magnitude of N losses, but also on the form of those losses.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2006

Albatross populations in peril: A population trajectory for Black-browed Albatrosses at South Georgia

Simulation modeling was used to reconstruct Black-browed Albatross ( Diomedea melanophris ) population trends. Close approximations to observed data were accomplished by annually varying survival rates, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years. The temporal shift in annual values coincided with the start of longline fishing at South Georgia and potential changes in krill abundance. We used 23 years of demographic data from long-term studies of a breeding colony of this species at Bird Island, South Georgia, to validate our model. When we used annual parameter estimates for survival, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years, our model trajectory closely followed the observed changes in breeding population size over time. Population growth rate was below replacement (lambda < 1) in most years and was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. This supports the recent IUCN uplisting of this species from “Vulnerable” to “Endangered.” Comparison of pre-1988 and post-1988 demography (before and after the inception of a longline fishery in the breeding area) reveals a decrease in lambda from 0.963 to 0.910. A life table response experiment (LTRE) showed that this decline in lambda was caused mostly by declines in survival of adults. If 1988–1998 demographic rates are maintained, the model predicts a 98% chance of a population of fewer than 25 pairs within 78 years. For this population to recover to a status under which it could be “delisted,” a 10% increase in survival of all age classes would be needed.

Ecological Applications↗