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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Statistical facilitation in environmental science: Integrating results from complementary statistical analyses can improve ecological interpretations

Professionals working in biological conservation seek to understand, manage, and restore populations of native organisms using many techniques. A common approach for this discipline is using long-term data collections to inform decision making. However, several quantitative issues complicate statistical analysis of monitoring datasets and can reduce the utility of results for conservation decision making. Integrating results from multiple analyses applied to the same dataset (i.e., approaching the same biological problem using different techniques) is one way to address concerns related to field data that violate statistical assumptions. This process allows data analysts, researchers, and managers to assemble insights based on the weight of evidence. Here we tested whether three different statistical techniques [(1) multiple logistic regression on original data, (2) multiple logistic regression on standardized data (i.e., mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1), and (3) random forest analysis] identified a similar hierarchy for selecting natural and anthropogenic habitat regressors. Our examination of how environmental variables affected Plains Minnow ( Hybognathus placitus ), a state-threatened fish, is relevant to other taxa and locations. We gained useful information from redundancies (i.e., agreements across analyses). New directions also emerged by addressing ambiguities (i.e., disagreements among results across analyses). When multiple analyses were integrated into one ecological story, a clearer interpretation emerged. Viewing different statistical tests as facilitators that provide mutual advantages can advance the understanding and application of statistical analyses applied to non-experimental field datasets.

Kansas↗
USGS2020

Mapping hotspots of potential ecosystem fragility using commonly available spatial data

Effective conservation requires prioritizing areas that are vulnerable to large, irreversible changes. Unfortunately, rigorously documenting these changes with experiments and long-term monitoring is not only costly, but may provide evidence that is too late to facilitate proactive decisions. We use a simple model to illustrate that commonly available short-term spatial, “snapshot”, data from a given ecosystem along an environmental gradient can be used to identify environmental conditions under which different ecosystem states (e.g. different species compositions) co-occur in space. These environmental conditions are those under which future perturbations have the potential for discontinuous large, sometimes irreversible, effects; and can be mapped in space to predict potential spatial hotspots of ecosystem fragility. We apply these insights to ecologically important high-elevation subalpine meadows of the Sierra Nevada (California). Our analysis reveals specific areas within meadows that may be more vulnerable than others because their plant communities have the potential to shift to a different state. These shifts can be mechanistically explained by interactions between the vegetation and the local water regimes and/or the upper soil conditions. Our study provides a simple workflow using commonly available data to help prioritize conservation areas based on their potential sensitivity to upcoming perturbations. Such an approach could be very valuable to make most efficient use of conservation and management resources in the context of ongoing global changes.

California↗
USGS2025

Stakeholders' priorities for management of a restored elk (Cervus canadensis) population in northeast Minnesota

Wildlife reintroduction projects are an important tool for restoring traditional wildlife heritage, increasing species diversity, providing subsistence and sport hunting and other recreational opportunities, and assisting ecosystem adaption to future climate change. In Minnesota, the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and some conservationists advocate for the expansion of existing elk range to other parts of the state. For reintroduction projects to be successful, it is helpful if managers understand stakeholders' preferences for management objectives. We used best-worst scaling (BWS) to assess residents' preferences for management objective alternatives. The University of Minnesota, in collaboration with the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, conducted a mail-back questionnaire of landowners ( n = 4500) and the general public ( n = 4000) in northeastern Minnesota to determine their attitudes toward elk reintroduction. Results suggest that the most preferred objectives were minimizing negative impacts on existing wildlife populations and reintroducing native species. In contrast, the least important objectives were related to providing elk viewing opportunities or maximizing economic opportunities through elk-related tourism. These findings help inform management objectives related to the reintroduction proposal, provide insight to minimize potential conflict and help develop future communication material related to elk reintroduction.

Minnesota↗
USGS2013

Effects of prescribed fire on Coluber constrictor Mormon in coastal San Mateo County, California

Although prescribed burns are used in many locations where reptiles are present, the effects of fire on reptiles are poorly understood. our objective was to determine the effects of prescribed fire on the Western yellow-bellied racer, Coluber constrictor mormon , at a study site in coastal san Mateo county, california. We sampled an unburned site and an adjacent prescribed burn site two to five years post fire in the spring and summer of 2007 through 2010. We found no differences in apparent survival or body condition of snakes between burned and unburned sites. the burned site had lower snake abundance than the unburned site in 2008 but we found no difference in abundance between sites in 2009 and 2010. We also found a difference in body condition across years and asymmetry in the probability of transition (movement between burned and unburned sites). Vegetation cover between the burned and unburned sites was similar. this study serves as a baseline for investigation of the effects of fire on Coluber constrictor mormon at our study site and provides further insight on the effects of prescribed fire on reptile species.

California↗
USGS2022

Density surface and excursion sets modeling as an approach to estimating population densities

Effective species management and conservation require knowledge of species distribution and status. We used point-transect distance sampling surveys of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a honeycreeper currently found only on the Island of Hawai'i, USA, to generate robust estimates of total abundance and simultaneously model the distribution, abundance, and spatial correlation of the species as a density surface model (DSM). Point-transect distance sampling is a widely applied method to estimate bird densities accounting for imperfect detection probability. For the DSM we used a generalized additive model framework and soap film smoothers to control the effects of boundary features. This modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detection and propagate detection probability uncertainty. We compared the uncertainty in palila abundance estimates using standard point-transect distance sampling to estimates from the DSM. The DSM, accounting for both distance-sampling-derived detection probability variance and the generalized additive model density estimate variance, did not improve population estimator precision; however, it provided insight into the species' distribution, density, and uncertainty. We also applied excursion sets analysis to objectively identify areas where the species occurs in high densities. The 2017 global population of <2,000 individuals was limited to an excursion area of 1,500 ha. Our findings can help management and regulatory agencies by simultaneously mapping a species' distribution and density, improving survey protocols, and providing information important to species conservation.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Methane oxidation dynamics in a karst subterranean estuary

Chemical gradients between fresh, brackish and saline waters shape biogeochemical reactions and organic matter transformation within subterranean estuaries. In the Yucatán Peninsula’s karst subterranean estuary (KSE), methane and dissolved organic matter generated during the anaerobic decomposition of tropical forest vegetation are transported into flooded cave networks where microbial consumption greatly reduces their concentrations in the groundwater. To test the hypothesis that chemoclines associated with salinity gradients of the KSE are sites of methane oxidation, we obtained methane concentration and δ 13 C profiles of unprecedented vertical resolution from within a fully-submerged cave system located 6.6 km inland from the coastline using the ‘OctoPiPi’ (OPP) water sampler. Along a 12–24 cm thick low-salinity-halocline at ∼4.5 m water depth, salinity increased from fresh to brackish (0.2–1.8 psu), methane concentrations decreased, and δ 13 C values increased, as expected for microbial methane oxidation. The underlying brackish water had elevated oxygen concentrations compared to the always anoxic freshwater, suggesting that aerobic methane oxidation is the dominant process facilitating methane consumption. By contrast, as salinity increased from 1.8 to 36 psu through a 24–36 cm thick high-salinity-halocline between the meteoric lens and the saline groundwater at ∼20 m water depth, methane concentrations and δ 13 C values were constant. Conservative mixing and kinetic isotope models incorporating the methane data confirm a hotspot for microbial methane oxidation at the low-salinity-halocline. At least 98% of methane originating in the anoxic freshwaters was removed before its transport via channelized flow towards the coastline. These findings provide novel insight into the spatial constraints of methane dynamics within a karst subterranean estuary.

Ox Bel Ha cave system↗
USGS2022

Direct and indirect influences of macrophyte cover on abundance and growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon

1. The relationships between macrophytes and the physical and biological characteristics of the environments that aquatic organisms inhabit are complex. Previous studies have shown that the macrophytes, Ranunculus (subgenus Batrachium ), which are dominant in lowland chalk streams and widespread across Europe, can enhance juvenile Atlantic salmon abundance and growth to a greater degree than other physical and biological habitat characteristics. However, mechanistic understanding of how this effect might arise requires consideration of the direct and indirect relationships among habitat characteristics that are likely to be influenced by the presence of macrophyte cover. 2. We applied structural equation modelling to data collected during a 2-year in-river manipulative experiment in the River Frome (southern England, U.K.) designed to quantify the magnitude and the relative importance of direct and indirect influences of Ranunculus cover and other physical and biological variables, including water velocity, water depth, prey biomass and body size, and abundance of con- and hetero-specifics, on abundance and somatic growth of 0+ salmon. 3. Results indicated a strongly positive direct influence of Ranunculus cover on salmon abundance, as well as positive influences of Ranunculus on velocity heterogeneity and water depth that are indirectly related to decreased salmon abundance. Interestingly, there was no indication of a direct influence of Ranunculus cover on salmon growth, although Ranunculus was indirectly related to increased salmon growth through its positive influence on prey biomass, an effect mediated by velocity heterogeneity and proportion of fast velocities. 4. These findings provide novel mechanistic insights into the key role of Ranunculus in their native lowland rivers to enhance abundance and improve conditions for multiple food web components. Strategies to maintain or enhance naturally occurring Ranunculus in these rivers are therefore likely to return wide ranging ecosystem benefits, including for species of high conservation value, such as salmon. These mechanistic impacts on habitat heterogeneity and ecosystem productivity could generalise to native macrophytes in other river systems, particularly where habitat is dominated by vegetation in the absence of large substrates.

Dorset County↗
USGS2011

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Development and characterization of thirteen microsatellite loci in Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana)

Clark’s nutcrackers are important seed dispersers for two widely-distributed western North American conifers, whitebark pine and limber pine, which are declining due to outbreaks of mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust. Because nutcracker seed dispersal services are key to maintaining viable populations of these imperiled pines, knowledge of movement patterns of Clark’s nutcrackers helps managers understand local extinction risks for these trees. To investigate population structure within Clark’s nutcracker, we developed primers for and characterized 13 polymorphic microsatellite loci. In a screen of 22 individuals from one population, levels of variability ranged from 6 to 15 alleles. No loci were found to be linked, although 4 loci revealed significant departures from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium and evidence of null alleles. These microsatellite loci will enable population genetic analyses of Clark’s nutcrackers, which could provide insights into the spatial relationships between nutcrackers and the trees they help disperse.

Conservation Genetics Resources↗
USGS2015

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite DNA loci in the threatened flat-spired three-toothed land snail Triodopsis platysayoides

The hermaphroditic flat-spired three-tooth land snail ( Triodopsis platysayoides ) is endemic to a 21-km stretch of the Cheat River Gorge of northeastern West Virginia, USA. We document isolation and characterization of ten microsatellite DNA markers in this at-risk species. The markers displayed a moderate level of allelic diversity (averaging 7.1 alleles/locus) and heterozygosity (averaging 58.6 %). Allelic diversity at seven loci was sufficient to produce unique multilocus genotypes; no indication of selfing was detected in this cosexual species. Minimal deviations from Hardy&ndash;Weinberg equilibrium and no linkage disequilibrium were observed within subpopulations. All loci deviated from Hardy&ndash;Weinberg expectations when individuals from subpopulations were pooled. Microsatellite markers developed for T . platysayoides yielded sufficient genetic diversity to (1) distinguish all individuals sampled and the level of selfing; (2) be appropriate for addressing fine-scale population structuring; (3) provide novel demographic insights for the species; and (4) cross-amplify and detect allelic diversity in the congeneric T. juxtidens .

Conservation Genetics Resources↗
USGS2021

Marine ecotourism for small pelagics as a source of alternative income generating activities to fisheries in a tropical community

Overharvest has led to marine ecosystem degradation and declining fishery catches in many tropical communities. To allow stocks to recover and provide increased flows of food and income, reductions in fishing effort are necessary. The development of Alternative Income Generating Activities can help to reduce the economic reliance of coastal communities on fishing, potentially reducing pressure on fish stocks. Here we assess the local conditions which have enabled the creation of Alternative Income Generating Activities to fishing based on marine ecotourism in Moalboal, Philippines. Importantly, while marine ecotourism typically centers around charismatic megafauna, a combination of nearshore fringing reefs, the establishment of nearshore marine protected areas and the occurrence of a massive herring aggregation provide a large tourism draw to this community. Using a combination of regional and local economic statistics and stakeholder surveys, we implement an economic valuation of the Moalboal marine ecotourism for 2018 and compare this valuation to an independent estimate of the extractive value of the herring aggregation. The Moalboal case indicates that a combination of strong community engagement in the governance of the ecotourism resource, a network of locally managed marine protected areas and the retention and distribution of economic benefits within the local community have led to a significant marine ecotourism sector. We contextualize these conditions into a set of potential enabling conditions for marine ecotourism as an Alternative Income Generating Activity to fishing to contribute insights to diversifying livelihood opportunities beyond extractive fishing for coastal communities in the tropics.

Moalboal, Cebu Island↗
USGS2019

Evidence for conservative transport of dissolved organic carbon in major river basins in the Gulf of Maine Watershed

Transport and fate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in rivers are important aspects of the carbon cycle and the critical linkage between terrestrial, aquatic, and marine systems. Recent studies have quantified fluvial export to the marine environment in many systems, but in-stream losses of DOC are poorly constrained. This study compares DOC yields (kg C/ha) between the area-weighted averages of several tributaries within larger watersheds with the DOC yields of the larger watersheds to gain insight on in-stream losses in larger river systems. Four large watersheds, 22 tributaries to those watersheds, and 5 additional main stem locations in Maine were studied during 1 April to 15 November in 2011 through 2013. There were no significant differences in the area-weighted average DOC yield of the tributaries and the larger watersheds indicating little net in-stream loss in the main stems of the larger rivers. It is unlikely that inputs of DOC from un-gauged areas compensated for losses from gauged tributaries based on similarity in DOC yield longitudinally along the main stems of two of the rivers. In addition, wetland abundance, which is associated with higher DOC yield in this environment, did not consistently increase from tributaries to the larger watershed or longitudinally along the main stems. This geographic distribution of wetlands therefore also indicates that it is unlikely that inputs of DOC from un-gauged areas compensated for losses from gauged tributaries. These findings suggest that in-stream losses of DOC in these larger river systems are minimal and that the vast majority of DOC in major rivers in Maine is transported conservatively to the coastal ocean.

Maine↗
USGS2019

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: Insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatio-temporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 years of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

Arizona↗
USGS2022

New frontiers in bird migration research

Bird migrations are impressive behavioral phenomena, representing complex spatiotemporal strategies to balance costs of living while maximizing fitness. The field of bird migration research has made great strides over the past decades, yet fundamental gaps remain. Technologies have sparked a transformation in the study of bird migration research by revealing remarkable insights into the underlying behavioral, cognitive, physiological and evolutionary mechanisms of these diverse journeys. Here, we aim to encourage broad discussions and promote future studies by highlighting research fields that are characterized by major knowledge gaps or conflicting evidence, namely the fields of navigation, social learning, individual development, energetics and conservation. We approach each topic by summarizing the current state of knowledge and provide a future outlook of ideas and state-of-the-art methods to further advance the field. Integrating knowledge across these disciplines will allow us to understand the adaptive abilities of different species and to develop effective conservation strategies in a rapidly changing world.

Current Biology↗
USGS2018

The confluences of ideas leading to, and the flow of ideas emerging from, individual-based modeling of riverine fishes

In this review article, we trace the history of events leading to the development of individual-based models (IBMs) to represent aquatic organisms in rivers and streams. As a metaphor, we present this history as a series of confluences between individual scientists (tributaries) sharing ideas. We describe contributions of these models to science and management. One iconic feature of river IBMs is the linkage between flow and the physical habitat experienced by individual animals, and the first model that focused on this linkage is briefly described. We continue by reviewing the contributions of riverine IBMs to eight broad areas of scientific inquiry. The first four areas include research to understand 1) the effects of flow regimes on fish populations, 2) species interactions (e.g., size-mediated competition and predation), 3) fish movement and habitat selection, and 4) contaminant and water quality impacts on populations. Next, we review research using IBMs 5) to guide conservation biology of imperiled taxa through population viability analysis, including research 6) to understand river fragmentation by dams and reconnection, 7) to understand genetic outcomes for riverine metapopulations, and 8) to anticipate the future effects of temperature and climate change. This rich body of literature has contributed to both theoretical insights (e.g., about animal behavior and life history) and applied insights (e.g., population-level effects of flow regimes, temperature, and the effects of hydropower and other industries that share rivers with aquatic biota). We finish by exploring promising branches that lie ahead in the braided, downstream channel that represents future river modeling research.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2016

Characterizing species interactions to understand press perturbations: What is the community matrix?

The community matrix is among ecology's most important mathematical abstractions, formally encapsulating the interconnected network of effects that species have on one another's populations. Despite its importance, the term `community matrix' has been applied to matrices having differing interpretations. This has hindered the application of theory for understanding community structure and perturbation responses, particularly in the contexts of ecosystem-based management and conservation. Here we clarify the correspondence and distinctions between the Interaction matrix, the Alpha matrix and the Jacobian matrix, terms which are frequently used interchangeably and have numerous synonyms, including the term Community matrix. We illustrate how these matrices correspond to different ways of characterizing interaction strengths, how they permit insights regarding different types of press perturbations of species growth rates or abundances, and how these are related by a simple scaling relationship. Connections to additional interaction strength characterizations encapsulated by the Beta matrix, the Gamma matrix, and the Removal matrix are also discussed. Our synthesis highlights the empirical challenges that remain in using these mathematical tools to understand actual communities.

Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics↗
USGS2025

Perpetuation of avian influenza from molt to fall migration in wild Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides): An agent-based modeling approach

Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir of avian influenza, but their distinct annual life cycle stages and their contribution to disease dynamics are not well understood. Studies of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus have primarily focused on wintering grounds, where human and poultry densities are high year-round, compared with breeding grounds, where migratory waterfowl are more isolated. Few if any studies of avian influenza have focused on the molting stage where wild waterfowl congregate in a few selected wetlands and undergo the simultaneous molt of wing and tail feathers during a vulnerable flightless period. The molting stage may be one of the most important periods for the perpetuation of the disease in waterfowl, since during this stage, immunologically naïve young birds and adults freely intermix prior to the fall migration. Our study incorporated empirical data from virological field samplings and markings of Swan Geese ( Anser cygnoides ) on their breeding grounds in Mongolia in an integrated agent-based model (ABM) that included susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) states. Our ABM results provided unique insights and indicated that individual movements between different molting wetlands and the transmission rate were the key predictors of HPAI perpetuation. While wetland extent was not a significant predictor of HPAI perpetuation, it had a large effect on the number of infections and associated death toll. Our results indicate that conserving undisturbed habitats for wild waterfowl during the molting stage of the breeding season could reduce the risk of HPAI transmission.

Viruses↗
USGS2025

Food habits of nonnative Smallmouth Bass in Coeur d’Alene Lake, Idaho

Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) has been widely introduced beyond its native distribution where interactions with other organisms are largely unknown. We examined the food habits of Smallmouth Bass in Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho. Smallmouth Bass were sampled monthly from March 2012 to May 2013 using short duration (1–2 hr sets) gill netting and electrofishing. In total, food habits were evaluated from 904 Smallmouth Bass varying in total length from 39 to 492 mm using gastric lavage. Diet composition varied by season and age. Smallmouth Bass less than 100 mm had diets dominated by invertebrates, particularly Ephemeroptera, Odonata, and Diptera. Fishes were increasingly important in the diet of Smallmouth Bass longer than 100 mm. Interestingly, crayfish (Decapoda) were virtually absent in Smallmouth Bass stomachs; only eight Smallmouth Bass had crayfish in their diet. Native vertebrates were also rare in Smallmouth Bass diets. Rather, kokanee ( Oncorhynchus nerka ), a nonnative species, was generally the most commonly consumed fish prey item (present in 5–15% of Smallmouth Bass across seasons). Kokanee contributed the highest percentage of total energy (approximately 45% of all energy) of any prey item. Results of this study suggest that native fishes of conservation concern are a minor component of Smallmouth Bass diets and that kokanee is important in meeting the energy demands of nonnative Smallmouth Bass. Further research on the distribution and abundance of crayfish in the system and on the population-level effects of Smallmouth Bass predation on kokanee would be insightful and help guide management actions in Coeur d'Alene Lake and similar systems in western North America.

Idaho↗