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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ) harvests and protect Red Knot ( Calidris canutus rufa ) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

The Condor↗
USGS2016

Wintering Sandhill Crane exposure to wind energy development in the central and southern Great Plains, USA

Numerous wind energy projects have been constructed in the central and southern Great Plains, USA, the main wintering area for midcontinental Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis). In an initial assessment of the potential risks of wind towers to cranes, we estimated spatial overlap, investigated potential avoidance behavior, and determined the habitat associations of cranes. We used data from cranes marked with platform transmitting terminals (PTTs) with and without global positioning system (GPS) capabilities. We estimated the wintering distributions of PTT-marked cranes prior to the construction of wind towers, which we compared with current tower locations. Based on this analysis, we found 7% spatial overlap between the distributions of cranes and towers. When we looked at individually marked cranes, we found that 52% would have occurred within 10 km of a tower at some point during winter. Using data from cranes marked after tower construction, we found a potential indication of avoidance behavior, whereby GPS-marked cranes generally used areas slightly more distant from existing wind towers than would be expected by chance. Results from a habitat selection model suggested that distances between crane locations and towers may have been driven more by habitat selection than by avoidance, as most wind towers were constructed in locations not often selected by wintering cranes. Our findings of modest regional overlap and that few towers have been placed in preferred crane habitat suggest that the current distribution of wind towers may be of low risk to the continued persistence of wintering midcontinental Sandhill Cranes in the central and southern Great Plains.

Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2017

Female-biased sex ratio, polygyny, and persistence in the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus)

Demographic changes in populations, such as skewed sex ratios, are of concern to conservationists, especially in small populations in which stochastic and other events can produce declines leading to extirpation. We documented a decline in one of the few remaining populations of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) in southern California, USA, which dropped from 40 to 5 adults between 2000 and 2015. Declines were unequal between sexes (94% for males, 82% for females). Adult sex ratios were female-biased in 10 of 16 yr. The proportion of paired males that were polygynous ranged from 0% to 100%, depending on the ratio of females to males in the adult population. Some males paired with up to 5 females simultaneously. We investigated the role of nestling sex ratio in the female-biased adult sex ratio by using genetic techniques to determine sex from blood samples collected from 162 nestlings in 72 nests from 2002 to 2009. Both population-level and within-brood nestling sex ratios were female-biased, and were not influenced by nest order (first or subsequent), parental mating type (monogamous or polygynous), or year. Disproportionately more females than males were recruited into the breeding population, mirroring nestling and fledgling sex ratios. It thus appears that a skewed nestling sex ratio has contributed to a female-biased adult population, which in turn has influenced mating behavior. We propose that the capacity for polygyny, which generally occurs at low levels in Southwestern Willow Flycatchers, has allowed this population to persist through a decline that might otherwise have resulted in extinction.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes ( Antigone canadensis ) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4) forecasting population size.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Summer and winter space use and home range characteristics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in eastern North America

Movement behavior and its relationship to habitat provide critical information toward understanding the effects of changing environments on birds. The eastern North American population of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is a genetically distinct and small population of conservation concern. To evaluate the potential responses of this population to changing landscapes, we calculated the home range and core area sizes of 52 eagles of 6 age–sex classes during the summer and winter seasons. Variability in range size was related to variation in topography and open cover, and to age and sex. In summer, eagle ranges that were smaller had higher proportions of ridge tops and open cover and had greater topographic roughness than did larger ranges. In winter, smaller ranges had higher proportions of ridge tops, hillsides and cliffs, and open cover than did larger ranges. All age and sex classes responded similarly to topography and open cover in both seasons. Not surprisingly, adult eagles occupied the smallest ranges in both seasons. Young birds used larger ranges than adults, and subadults in summer used the largest ranges (>9,000 km 2 ). Eastern adult home ranges in summer were 2–10 times larger than those reported for other populations in any season. Golden Eagles in eastern North America may need to compensate for generally lower-quality habitat in the region by using larger ranges that support access to adequate quantities of resources (prey, updrafts, and nesting, perching, and roosting sites) associated with open cover and diverse topography. Our results suggest that climate change–induced afforestation on the breeding grounds and ongoing land cover change from timber harvest and energy development on the wintering grounds may affect the amount of suitable habitat for Golden Eagles in eastern North America.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Book review: A chorus of cranes: The cranes of North America and the world

Cranes (Gruidae) are widely distributed throughout the world, have lived on Earth for several million years, and currently reside on five continents. Archaeological evidence and historical references suggest that humans have interacted with and been captivated by cranes for many thousands of years (e.g., Leslie 1988, Muellner 1990 ). A glimpse of our reverence for these birds can be found in A Chorus of Cranes by Paul A. Johnsgard, with photographs by Thomas D. Mangelsen. Many species of cranes are currently identified as threatened or endangered, and their future will likely rest in the hands of humans; this book presents their plight and some of the measures that have been taken to conserve them. Dr. Johnsgard, an emeritus professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, is a prolific writer, having written more than 60 books in ornithology and other topics. This book serves as the latest update of previous efforts concerning crane biology, conservation, and management. A review without making comparisons to his past works is difficult, yet this assessment will primarily focus on the content of the current book, with little reference to past endeavors. A Chorus of Cranes: The Cranes of North America and the World by Paul A. Johnsgard. 2015. University Press of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA. x + 208 pp., 38 color photographs, 41 figures. ISBN 978-1-60732-436-2. $23.95 (Ebook). ISBN 978-1-60732-436-9.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)

Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common in urban areas in the southern Great Plains, from May through August. We monitored 498 Mississippi Kite nesting attempts in Lubbock, Texas, USA, between 2004 and 2015, from which we modeled daily survival rate as a function of local weather conditions, drought severity, and the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We observed significant annual variation in median incubation initiation date (range = May 20 to June 5), the probability of nest success (range = 0.31–0.90), and productivity (range = 0.25–1.00 fledglings per nest). Our models of daily survival rate suggested that higher daily temperatures, severe storm events, extreme drought conditions, and La Niña events negatively influenced nest survival. These results suggest that increasing storm frequency and higher temperatures associated with climate change are likely to decrease the nesting success of Mississippi Kites in the southern Great Plains.

Texas↗
USGS2017

Applying citizen-science data and mark-recapture models to estimate numbers of migrant golden eagles in an important bird area in eastern North America

Estimates of population abundance are important to wildlife management and conservation. However, it can be difficult to characterize the numbers of broadly distributed, low-density, and elusive bird species. Although Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) are rare, difficult to detect, and broadly distributed, they are concentrated during their autumn migration at monitoring sites in eastern North America. We used hawk-count data collected by citizen scientists in a virtual mark–recapture modeling analysis to estimate the numbers of Golden Eagles that migrate in autumn along Kittatinny Ridge, an Important Bird Area in Pennsylvania, USA. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of our abundance estimates to variation in eagle capture histories, we applied candidate models to 8 different sets of capture histories, constructed with or without age-class information and using known mean flight speeds 6 1, 2, 4, or 6 SE for eagles to travel between hawk-count sites. Although some abundance estimates were produced by models that poorly fitted the data ( ĉ > 3.0), 2 sets of population estimates were produced by acceptably performing models (cˆ less than or equal to 3.0). Application of these models to count data from November, 2002–2011, suggested a mean population abundance of 1,354 6 117 SE (range: 873–1,938). We found that Golden Eagles left the ridgeline at different rates and in different places along the route, and that typically ,50% of individuals were detected at the hawk-count sites. Our study demonstrates a useful technique for estimating population abundance that may be applicable to other migrant species that are repeatedly detected at multiple monitoring sites along a topographic diversion or leading line.

Pennslyvania↗
USGS2017

White-cheeked Pintail duckling and brood survival across wetland types at Humacao Nature Reserve, Puerto Rico

Duckling survival is an important influence on recruitment in several North American Anas species. White-cheeked Pintail ( Anas bahamensis ) breeding in Puerto Rico encounter a variety of wetland types that may influence duckling survival. We monitored fates of 92 radio-tagged ducklings in 31 broods in 5 wetland habitat types at Humacao Nature Reserve in southeastern Puerto Rico from 2000 to 2002. Wetlands included 2 separate coastal lagoon complexes, mangrove forest, and managed and unmanaged wetland impoundments containing herbaceous vegetation. We used known-fate models to estimate daily and interval survival rates of ducklings and broods. We conducted conservative and liberal analyses of survival because of uncertain fates of 36 ducklings. In the conservative analysis, the most parsimonious model for duckling survival contained wetland type and a positive influence of daily precipitation. In the liberal analysis, duckling survival also varied among wetlands, was positively influenced by daily precipitation, but negatively influenced by hatch date. Brood survival was also positively influenced by precipitation and female body mass. Managed wetland impoundments and shallowly flooded lagoon habitats containing ferns, interspersed cattail ( Typha dominguensis ), and other herbaceous cover promoted up to 3 times higher survival of ducklings over the course of a 30-day duckling period than we found in mangroves, more deeply flooded lagoons with predominately restricted shoreline cover, or unmanaged impoundments overgrown with vegetation. Broad confidence intervals for survival estimates among wetlands preclude unequivocal interpretation, but our results suggest that White-cheeked Pintail ducklings survive poorly in mangroves but benefit from appropriate management.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2017

California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) habitat use patterns in a burned landscape

Fire is a dynamic ecosystem process of mixed-conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada, but there is limited scientific information addressing wildlife habitat use in burned landscapes. Recent studies have presented contradictory information regarding the effects of stand-replacing wildfires on Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis ) and their habitat. While fire promotes heterogeneous forest landscapes shown to be favored by owls, high severity fire may create large canopy gaps that can fragment the closed-canopy habitat preferred by Spotted Owls. We used radio-telemetry to determine whether foraging California Spotted Owls ( S. o. occidentalis ) in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, showed selection for particular fire severity patch types within their home ranges. Our results suggested that Spotted Owls exhibited strong habitat selection within their home ranges for locations near the roost and edge habitats, and weak selection for lower fire severity patch types. Although owls selected high contrast edges with greater relative probabilities than low contrast edges, we did not detect a statistical difference between these probabilities. Protecting forests from stand-replacing fires via mechanical thinning or prescribed fire is a priority for management agencies, and our results suggest that fires of low to moderate severity can create habitat conditions within California Spotted Owls' home ranges that are favored for foraging.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Tell me a story! A plea for more compelling conference presentations

Effective communication with other scientists is an essential component of the scientific process, underlying success in publishing papers, building collaborations, securing grants and jobs, and stimulating further research. Oral presentations at professional meetings provide an opportunity to share research findings with a relatively broad scientific audience. However, many scientists give talks that are crowded with methods and data, accompanied by poor visuals, and, most unfortunately, lacking in narrative arc. Here, I provide strategies for distilling research findings into a short-format talk, capturing the audience's attention, and delivering a compelling and visually engaging story. I argue that the material should be designed to interest a wide range of meeting attendees, not just experts in a narrow field. I also advocate principles of good storytelling, with the aim of leading the audience through a compelling journey of discovery that concludes with a memorable takeaway message.

The Condor: Ornithological Applications↗
USGS2017

Territory and nest site selection patterns by Grasshopper Sparrows in southeastern Arizona

Grassland bird populations are showing some of the greatest rates of decline of any North American birds, prompting measures to protect and improve important habitat. We assessed how vegetation structure and composition, habitat features often targeted for management, affected territory and nest site selection by Grasshopper Sparrows ( Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus ) in southeastern Arizona. To identify features important to males establishing territories, we compared vegetation characteristics of known territories and random samples on 2 sites over 5 years. We examined habitat selection patterns of females by comparing characteristics of nest sites with territories over 3 years. Males selected territories in areas of sparser vegetation structure and more tall shrubs (>2 m) than random plots on the site with low shrub densities. Males did not select territories based on the proportion of exotic grasses. Females generally located nest sites in areas with lower small shrub (1–2 m tall) densities than territories overall when possible and preferentially selected native grasses for nest construction. Whether habitat selection was apparent depended upon the range of vegetation structure that was available. We identified an upper threshold above which grass structure seemed to be too high and dense for Grasshopper Sparrows. Our results suggest that some management that reduces vegetative structure may benefit this species in desert grasslands at the nest and territory scale. However, we did not assess initial male habitat selection at a broader landscape scale where their selection patterns may be different and could be influenced by vegetation density and structure outside the range of values sampled in this study.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

The range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) spans 4 unique ecoregions along 2 distinct environmental gradients. The Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion of the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas is environmentally isolated, warmer, and more arid than the Short-Grass, Sand Sagebrush, and Mixed-Grass Prairie ecoregions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the northeast panhandle of Texas. Weather is known to influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion; regional variation may also influence nest microclimate and, ultimately, survival during incubation. To address this question, we placed data loggers adjacent to nests during incubation to quantify temperature and humidity distribution functions in 3 ecoregions. We developed a suite of a priori nest survival models that incorporated derived microclimate parameters and visual obstruction as covariates in Program MARK. We monitored 49 nests in Mixed-Grass, 22 nests in Sand Shinnery Oak, and 30 nests in Short-Grass ecoregions from 2010 to 2014. Our findings indicated that (1) the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion was hotter and drier during incubation than the Mixed- and Short-Grass ecoregions; (2) nest microclimate varied among years within ecoregions; (3) visual obstruction was positively associated with nest survival; but (4) daily nest survival probability decreased by 10% every half-hour when temperature was greater than 34°C and vapor pressure deficit was less than −23 mmHg during the day (about 0600–2100 hours). Our major finding confirmed microclimate thresholds for nest survival under natural conditions across the species' distribution, although Lesser Prairie-Chickens are more likely to experience microclimate conditions that result in nest failures in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion. The species would benefit from identification of thermal landscapes and management actions that promote cooler, more humid nest microclimates.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Range-wide connectivity of priority areas for Greater Sage-Grouse: Implications for long-term conservation from graph theory

The delineation of priority areas in western North America for managing Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) represents a broad-scale experiment in conservation biology. The strategy of limiting spatial disturbance and focusing conservation actions within delineated areas may benefit the greatest proportion of Greater Sage-Grouse. However, land use under normal restrictions outside priority areas potentially limits dispersal and gene flow, which can isolate priority areas and lead to spatially disjunct populations. We used graph theory, representing priority areas as spatially distributed nodes interconnected by movement corridors, to understand the capacity of priority areas to function as connected networks in the Bi-State, Central, and Washington regions of the Greater Sage-Grouse range. The Bi-State and Central networks were highly centralized; the dominant pathways and shortest linkages primarily connected a small number of large and centrally located priority areas. These priority areas are likely strongholds for Greater Sage-Grouse populations and might also function as refugia and sources. Priority areas in the Central network were more connected than those in the Bi-State and Washington networks. Almost 90% of the priority areas in the Central network had ≥2 pathways to other priority areas when movement through the landscape was set at an upper threshold (effective resistance, ER 12 ). At a lower threshold (ER 4 ), 83 of 123 priority areas in the Central network were clustered in 9 interconnected subgroups. The current conservation strategy has risks; 45 of 61 priority areas in the Bi-State network, 68 of 123 in the Central network, and all 4 priority areas in the Washington network had ≤1 connection to another priority area at the lower ER 4 threshold. Priority areas with few linkages also averaged greater environmental resistance to movement along connecting pathways. Without maintaining corridors to larger priority areas or a clustered group, isolation of small priority areas could lead to regional loss of Greater Sage-Grouse

The Condor↗
USGS2016

Biochemical and clinical responses of Common Eiders to implanted satellite transmitters

Implanted biologging devices, such as satellite-linked platform transmitter terminals (PTTs), have been used widely to delineate populations and identify movement patterns of sea ducks. Although in some cases these ecological studies could reveal transmitter effects on behavior and mortality, experiments conducted under controlled conditions can provide valuable information to understand the influence of implanted tags on health and physiology. We report the clinical, mass, biochemical, and histological responses of captive Common Eiders ( Somateria mollissima ) implanted with PTTs with percutaneous antennas. We trained 6 individuals to dive 4.9 m for their food, allowed them to acclimate to this dive depth, and implanted them with PTTs. We collected data before surgery to establish baselines, and for 3.5 mo after surgery. The first feeding dive took place 22 hr after surgery, with 5 of 6 birds diving to the bottom within 35 hr of surgery. Plumage waterproofing around surgical sites was reduced ≤21 days after surgery. Mass; albumin; albumin:globulin ratio; aspartate aminotransferase; β 1 -, β 2 -, and γ-globulins; creatine kinase; fecal glucocorticoid metabolites; heterophil:lymphocyte ratio; and packed cell volume changed from baseline on one or more of the postsurgery sampling dates, and some changes were still evident 3.5 mo after surgery. Our findings show that Common Eiders physiologically responded for up to 3.5 mo after surgical implantation of a PTT, with the greatest response occurring within the first few weeks of implantation. These responses support the need for postsurgery censor periods for satellite telemetry data and should be considered when designing studies and analyzing information from PTTs in sea ducks.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate

Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs ( Calcarius pictus ) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests ( n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low-shrub habitat types, which could significantly change the characteristics of breeding areas.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data for >420 bird species at multiple geographic scales over 5 decades. Modern computational methods have facilitated the fitting of complex hierarchical models to these data. It is easy to propose and fit new models, but little attention has been given to model selection. Here, we discuss and illustrate model selection using leave-one-out cross validation, and the Bayesian Predictive Information Criterion (BPIC). Cross-validation is enormously computationally intensive; we thus evaluate the performance of the Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) as a computationally efficient approximation to the BPIC. Our evaluation is based on analyses of 4 models as applied to 20 species covered by the BBS. Model selection based on BPIC provided no strong evidence of one model being consistently superior to the others; for 14/20 species, none of the models emerged as superior. For the remaining 6 species, a first-difference model of population trajectory was always among the best fitting. Our results show that WAIC is not reliable as a surrogate for BPIC. Development of appropriate model sets and their evaluation using BPIC is an important innovation for the analysis of BBS data.

Condor↗
USGS2018

Reproductive response of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows to weather patterns and habitat structure

Avian species endemic to desert grasslands of North America contend with significant ecological challenges, including monsoonal rains, droughts, and variable temperatures. These birds have evolved physiological and behavioral means of coping with such extremes, but ongoing changes to temperature and precipitation patterns are affecting their breeding phenology, reproductive success, and population growth rates. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions and habitat structure were associated with the nest survival of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows ( Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus ) in the semidesert and plains grasslands of southeastern Arizona, USA. The mean ± SE daily survival rate (DSR) of nests was 0.960 ± 0.006, corresponding to overall nest success of 46%. The previous season's precipitation, large rain events, and nest concealment were the most important factors explaining DSR. Grasshopper Sparrow nest survival decreased with a wetter previous growing season and with large rain events on previous days. Nests that were more concealed had lower survival rates. There was some evidence that nest survival was lower later in the nesting season. In addition, when nest concealment was included in models, there were positive but weak associations between other vegetation variables and DSR—nests with higher visual obstruction at the nest and nest plot scales, and nests that were farther from shrubs >2 m tall, showed higher survival rates. Predation was the major cause of nest failure, suggesting complex interactions among predation, precipitation, and nest concealment. Further, our findings suggest tradeoffs in the potential effects of future climate change on A. s. ammolegus . The increased frequency of extreme storm events predicted for the region may result in reduced nest survival of A. s. ammolegus , but, conversely, lower seasonal precipitation prior to nesting may positively influence nest survival.

Arizona↗