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Land use change and terrestrial carbon stocks in Senegal

Environmental degradation resulting from long-term drought and land use change has affected terrestrial carbon (C) stocks within Africa's Sahel. We estimated Senegal's terrestrial carbon stocks in 1965, 1985, and 2000 using an inventory procedure involving satellite images revealing historical land use change, and recent field measurements of standing carbon stocks occurring in soil and plants. Senegal was divided into eight ecological zones containing 11 land uses. In 2000, savannas, cultivated lands, forests, and steppes were the four largest land uses in Senegal, occupying 70, 22, 2.7, and 2.3 percent of Senegal's 199,823 km 2 . System C stocks ranged from 9 t C ha −1 in degraded savannas in the north, to 113 t C ha −1 in the remnant forests of the Senegal River Valley. This approach resulted in estimated total C stocks of 1019 and 727 MT C between 1965 and 2000, respectively, indicating a loss of 292 MT C over 35 years. The proportion of C residing in biomass decreased with time, from 55 percent in 1965 to 38 percent in 2000. Calculated terrestrial C flux for 1993 was −7.5 MT C year −1 and had declined by 17 percent over the previous 18 years. Most of the terrestrial C flux in 1993 was attributed to biomass C reduction. Human disturbance accounted for only 22 percent of biomass C loss in 1993, suggesting that the effects of long-term Sahelian drought continue to play an overriding role in ecosystem change. Some carbon mitigation strategies for Senegal were investigated, including potential C sequestration levels. Opportunities for C mitigation exist but are constrained by available knowledge and access to resources.

Journal of Arid Environments

Climate change and plant community composition in national parks of the southwestern US: forecasting regional, long-term effects to meet management needs

The National Park Service (NPS) faces tremendous management challenges in the future as climates alter the abundance and distribution of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern U.S., where large increases in aridity are forecasted. The expected reduction in water availability will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition. Synthesis of climate and plant vital sign data from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks is essential to provide park managers with important insights into contemporary climate responses and a sound basis to forecast likely future changes at species, community, and ecosystem scales. We describe a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NPS in which we have conducted regional cross-site assessments across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts to understand plant species responses to past climate and forecast future plant community composition. We also determined whether a widely-implemented vegetation monitoring protocol in these deserts is suitable to track long-term vegetation changes caused by climate and other factors. Our results from these analyses are intended to help natural resource managers identify and prepare for changes in plant cover and community composition and evaluate the efficacy of current monitoring programs.

Arizona, New Mexico, Texas

Transition of vegetation states positively affects harvester ants in the Great Basin, United States

Invasions by non-native plants can alter ecosystems such that new ecological states are reached, but less is known about how these transitions influence animal populations. Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) ecosystems are experiencing state changes because of fire and invasion by exotic annual grasses. Our goal was to study the effects of these state changes on the Owyhee and western harvester ants ( Pogonomyrmex salinus Olsen and P. occidentalis Cresson, respectively). We sampled 358 1-ha plots across the northern Great Basin, which captured unburned and burned conditions across 1 −≥31 years postfire. Our results indicated an immediate and consistent change in vegetation states from shrubland to grassland between 1 and 31 years postfire. Harvester ant occupancy was unrelated to time since fire, whereas we observed a positive effect of fire on nest density. Similarly, we discovered that fire and invasion by exotic annuals were weak predictors of harvester ant occupancy but strong predictors of nest density. Occupancy of harvester ants was more likely in areas with finer-textured soils, low precipitation, abundant native forbs, and low shrub cover. Nest density was higher in arid locations that recently burned and exhibited abundant exotic annual and perennial (exotic and native) grasses. Finally, we discovered that burned areas that received postfire restoration had minimal influence on harvester ant occupancy or nest density compared with burned and untreated areas. These results suggest that fire-induced state changes from native shrublands to grasslands dominated by non-native grasses have a positive effect on density of harvester ants (but not occupancy), and that postfire restoration does not appear to positively or negatively affect harvester ants. Although wildfire and invasion by exotic annual grasses may negatively affect other species, harvester ants may indeed be one of the few winners among a myriad of losers linked to vegetation state changes within sagebrush ecosystems.

Great Basin

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa , forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand‐level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand‐level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree‐based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand‐level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long‐term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long‐term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications . We quantified the influence of stand‐level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water‐limited forests.

Arizona

Causal analysis of fire regime drivers in California

Background Understanding the relative contribution of climate and human factors to wildfires is critical for managing risk across California’s diverse ecosystems, in the United States (US). Aims We propose a model that distinguishes between proximate and ultimate drivers of fire regimes and apply it to a century of fire and climate data to assess regional variation in causal mechanisms. Methods We analyzed fire statistics (1910–2021) alongside climate and weather data, stratifying the state by 10 ecoregions. Key results Northern forests had the strongest correlation with the proximate factor fuel aridity, ultimately due to climate. Fire rotation intervals exceeded 100 years, implicating woody fuel accumulation as an additional factor. Lightning ignitions occurred in decadal bursts, with dense strike events potentially overwhelming fire-fighting resources. Lower elevation/latitude foothill ecoregions experienced highest fire activity following wet winters and springs, implicating control by herbaceous fuel loads and a negative effect of global warming on future fires. Human ignitions dominate in these ecoregions, and population growth contributes to expansion of powerlines, a major ignition source. Conclusions While climate change may increase fire activity in forested ecoregions, its role is less pronounced in non-forested ecoregions, where human ignition sources are the dominant factor. Implications Different areas within ecoregions may require different management actions that reflect the specific proximate and ultimate factors at play.

California

Depletion and capture: revisiting “The source of water derived from wells"

A natural consequence of groundwater withdrawals is the removal of water from subsurface storage, but the overall rates and magnitude of groundwater depletion and capture relative to groundwater withdrawals (extraction or pumpage) have not previously been well characterized. This study assesses the partitioning of long-term cumulative withdrawal volumes into fractions derived from storage depletion and capture, where capture includes both increases in recharge and decreases in discharge. Numerical simulation of a hypothetical groundwater basin is used to further illustrate some of Theis' (1940) principles, particularly when capture is constrained by insufficient available water. Most prior studies of depletion and capture have assumed that capture is unconstrained through boundary conditions that yield linear responses. Examination of real systems indicates that capture and depletion fractions are highly variable in time and space. For a large sample of long-developed groundwater systems, the depletion fraction averages about 0.15 and the capture fraction averages about 0.85 based on cumulative volumes. Higher depletion fractions tend to occur in more arid regions, but the variation is high and the correlation coefficient between average annual precipitation and depletion fraction for individual systems is only 0.40. Because 85% of long-term pumpage is derived from capture in these real systems, capture must be recognized as a critical factor in assessing water budgets, groundwater storage depletion, and sustainability of groundwater development. Most capture translates into streamflow depletion, so it can detrimentally impact ecosystems.

Groundwater

GRiMeDB: The Global River Database Methane Database of concentrations and fluxes

Despite their small spatial extent, fluvial ecosystems play a significant role in processing and transporting carbon in aquatic networks, which results in substantial emission of methane ( CH 4 ) into the atmosphere. For this reason, considerable effort has been put into identifying patterns and drivers of CH 4 concentrations in streams and rivers and estimating fluxes to the atmosphere across broad spatial scales. However, progress toward these ends has been slow because of pronounced spatial and temporal variability of lotic CH 4 concentrations and fluxes and by limited data availability across diverse habitats and physicochemical conditions. To address these challenges, we present a comprehensive database of CH 4 concentrations and fluxes for fluvial ecosystems along with broadly relevant and concurrent physical and chemical data. The Global River Methane Database (GriMeDB; https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/f48cdb77282598052349e969920356ef , Stanley et al., 2023) includes 24 024 records of CH 4 concentration and 8205 flux measurements from 5029 unique sites derived from publications, reports, data repositories, unpublished data sets, and other outlets that became available between 1973 and 2021. Flux observations are reported as diffusive, ebullitive, and total CH 4 fluxes, and GriMeDB also includes 17 655 and 8409 concurrent measurements of concentrations and 4444 and 1521 fluxes for carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide ( N 2 O ), respectively. Most observations are date-specific (i.e., not site averages), and many are supported by data for 1 or more of 12 physicochemical variables and 6 site variables. Site variables include codes to characterize marginal channel types (e.g., springs, ditches) and/or the presence of human disturbance (e.g., point source inputs, upstream dams). Overall, observations in GRiMeDB encompass the broad range of the climatic, biological, and physical conditions that occur among world river basins, although some geographic gaps remain (arid regions, tropical regions, high-latitude and high-altitude systems). The global median CH 4 concentration (0.20 µmol L −1 ) and diffusive flux (0.44 mmol m -2 d -1 ) in GRiMeDB are lower than estimates from prior site-averaged compilations, although ranges (0 to 456 µmol L −1 and − 136 to 4057 mmol m -2 d -1 ) and standard deviations (10.69 and 86.4) are greater for this larger and more temporally resolved database. Available flux data are dominated by diffusive measurements despite the recognized importance of ebullitive and plant-mediated CH 4 fluxes. Nonetheless, GriMeDB provides a comprehensive and cohesive resource for examining relationships between CH 4 and environmental drivers, estimating the contribution of fluvial ecosystems to CH 4 emissions, and contextualizing site-based investigations.

Earth System Science Data

Muted responses to chronic experimental nitrogen deposition on the Colorado Plateau

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is significantly altering both community structure and ecosystem processes in terrestrial ecosystems across the globe. However, our understanding of the consequences of N deposition in dryland systems remains relatively poor, despite evidence that drylands may be particularly vulnerable to increasing N inputs. In this study, we investigated the influence of 7 years of multiple levels of simulated N deposition (0, 2, 5, and 8 kg N ha −1 year −1 ) on plant community structure and biological soil crust (biocrust) cover at three semi-arid grassland sites spanning a soil texture gradient. Biocrusts are a surface community of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and/or algae, and have been shown to be sensitive to N inputs. We hypothesized that N additions would decrease plant diversity, increase abundance of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum, and decrease biocrust cover. Contrary to our expectations, we found that N additions did not affect plant diversity or B. tectorum abundance. In partial support of our hypotheses, N additions negatively affected biocrust cover in some years, perhaps driven in part by inter-annual differences in precipitation. Soil inorganic N concentrations showed rapid but ephemeral responses to N additions and plant foliar N concentrations showed no response, indicating that the magnitude of plant and biocrust responses to N fertilization may be buffered by endogenous N cycling. More work is needed to determine N critical load thresholds for plant community and biocrust dynamics in semi-arid systems and the factors that determine the fate of N inputs.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah

Use of remote sensing and GIS to identify Flamingo habitat in the Argentine Altiplano

The Argentine altiplano is a remote area which has never been adequately mapped. It is an arid region with harsh climate, little vegetation, sparse population, and an average elevation of over 3,500 feet. Little is known about the large populations of three species of flamingos which nest and feed in the altiplano lakes. In a study funded by the National Geographic Society satellite data (Landsat MSS and TM data) were used to map the location of major water bodies and to analyze the spectral characteristics of the aquatic ecosystems in the altiplano. A comparison of the two images revealed dramatic changes in the size, depth, and spectral reflectance of the lakes utilized by the flamingos.

Altiplano

Spatial and temporal patterns across an ecological boundary: Allochthonous effects of a young saltwater lake on a desert ecosystem

We documented changes in the abundance and composition of terrestrial flora and fauna with respect to distance from the sea edge and timing of large allochthonous inputs from the Salton Sea, California. We found significant effects that were most pronounced within 300 m of the shore, but extended 3 km inland via coyote scat deposition. The zone within 300 m of the sea had a higher density of vegetation with a distinctly different plant composition. The denser vegetation supported higher abundances of birds and reptiles. Coyotes exhibited spatial and temporal responses to marine subsidies of fish, while birds were likely subsidized by aquatic aerial insects. Top-down control, as well as dietary and habitat preferences, may have resulted in reduced number of ants, beetles, and small mammals near the sea. Species responses to the habitat edge appeared to be associated with life history, as the near shore habitat favored habitat generalists and shore specialists, while inland desert habitat favored many sand and open desert specialists. Ecosystem responses support current theories of allochthonous spatial subsidies and consumer-resource dynamics but were limited in scope, magnitude, and distance.

Journal of Arid Environments

Determinants of woody cover in African savannas

Savannas are globally important ecosystems of great significance to human economies. In these biomes, which are characterized by the co-dominance of trees and grasses, woody cover is a chief determinant of ecosystem properties 1-3. The availability of resources (water, nutrients) and disturbance regimes (fire, herbivory) are thought to be important in regulating woody cover1,2,4,5, but perceptions differ on which of these are the primary drivers of savanna structure. Here we show, using data from 854 sites across Africa, that maximum woody cover in savannas receiving a mean annual precipitation (MAP) of less than ???650 mm is constrained by, and increases linearly with, MAP. These arid and semi-arid savannas may be considered 'stable' systems in which water constrains woody cover and permits grasses to coexist, while fire, herbivory and soil properties interact to reduce woody cover below the MAP-controlled upper bound. Above a MAP of ???650 mm, savannas are 'unstable' systems in which MAP is sufficient for woody canopy closure, and disturbances (fire, herbivory) are required for the coexistence of trees and grass. These results provide insights into the nature of African savannas and suggest that future changes in precipitation 6 may considerably affect their distribution and dynamics. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature

Mercury in fishes from 21 national parks in the Western United States: inter- and intra-park variation in concentrations and ecological risk

Mercury (Hg) is a global contaminant and human activities have increased atmospheric Hg concentrations 3- to 5-fold during the past 150 years. This increased release into the atmosphere has resulted in elevated loadings to aquatic habitats where biogeochemical processes promote the microbial conversion of inorganic Hg to methylmercury, the bioavailable form of Hg. The physicochemical properties of Hg and its complex environmental cycle have resulted in some of the most remote and protected areas of the world becoming contaminated with Hg concentrations that threaten ecosystem and human health. The national park network in the United States is comprised of some of the most pristine and sensitive wilderness in North America. There is concern that via global distribution, Hg contamination could threaten the ecological integrity of aquatic communities in the parks and the wildlife that depends on them. In this study, we examined Hg concentrations in non-migratory freshwater fish in 86 sites across 21 national parks in the Western United States. We report Hg concentrations of more than 1,400 fish collected in waters extending over a 4,000 kilometer distance, from Alaska to the arid Southwest. Across all parks, sites, and species, fish total Hg (THg) concentrations ranged from 9.9 to 1,109 nanograms per gram wet weight (ng/g ww) with a mean of 77.7 ng/g ww. We found substantial variation in fish THg concentrations among and within parks, suggesting that patterns of Hg risk are driven by processes occurring at a combination of scales. Additionally, variation (up to 20-fold) in site-specific fish THg concentrations within individual parks suggests that more intensive sampling in some parks will be required to effectively characterize Hg contamination in western national parks. Across all fish sampled, only 5 percent had THg concentrations exceeding a benchmark (200 ng/g ww) associated with toxic responses within the fish themselves. However, Hg concentrations in 35 percent of fish sampled were above a benchmark for risk to highly sensitive avian consumers (90 ng/g ww), and THg concentrations in 68 percent of fish sampled were above exposure levels recommended by the Great Lakes Advisory Group (50 ng/g ww) for unlimited consumption by humans. Of the fish assessed for risk to human consumers (that is, species that are large enough to be consumed by recreational or subsistence anglers), only one individual fish from Yosemite National Park had a muscle Hg concentration exceeding the benchmark (950 ng/g ww) at which no human consumption is advised. Zion, Capital Reef, Wrangell-St. Elias, and Lake Clark National Parks all contained sites in which most fish exceeded benchmarks for the protection of human and wildlife health. This finding is particularly concerning in Zion and Capitol Reef National Parks because the fish from these parks were speckled dace, a small, invertebrate-feeding species, yet their Hg concentrations were as high or higher than those in the largest, long-lived predatory species, such as lake trout. Future targeted research and monitoring across park habitats would help identify patterns of Hg distribution across the landscape and facilitate management decisions aimed at reducing the ecological risk posed by Hg contamination in sensitive ecosystems protected by the National Park Service.

Alaska;Arizona;California;Colorado;Idaho;Montana;N

Accumulation of contaminants in fish from wastewater treatment wetlands

Increasing demands on water resources in arid environments make reclamation and reuse of municipal wastewater an important component of the water budget. Treatment wetlands can be an integral part of the water-reuse cycle providing both water-quality enhancement and habitat functions. When used for habitat, the bioaccumulation potential of contaminants in the wastewater is a critical consideration. Water and fish samples collected from the Tres Rios Demonstration Constructed Wetlands near Phoenix, Arizona, which uses secondary-treated wastewater to maintain an aquatic ecosystem in a desert environment, were analyzed for hydrophobic organic compounds (HOC) and trace elements. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMD) were deployed to investigate uptake of HOC. The wetlands effectively removed HOC, and concentrations of herbicides, pesticides, and organic wastewater contaminants decreased 40−99% between inlet and outlet. Analysis of Tilapia mossambica and Gambusia affinis indicated accumulation of HOC, including p,p ‘-DDE and trans -nonachlor. The SPMD accumulated the HOC detected in the fish tissue as well as additional compounds. Trace-element concentrations in whole-fish tissue were highly variable, but were similar between the two species. Concentrations of HOC and trace elements varied in different fish tissue compartments, and concentrations in Tilapia liver tissue were greater than those in the whole organism or filet tissue. Bioconcentration factors for the trace elements ranged from 5 to 58 000 and for the HOC ranged from 530 to 150 000.

Environmental Science & Technology

The microbial arsenic cycle in Mono Lake, California

Significant concentrations of dissolved inorganic arsenic can be found in the waters of a number of lakes located in the western USA and in other water bodies around the world. These lakes are often situated in arid, volcanic terrain. The highest concentrations of arsenic occur in hypersaline, closed basin soda lakes and their remnant brines. Although arsenic is a well-known toxicant to eukaryotes and prokaryotes alike, some prokaryotes have evolved biochemical mechanisms to exploit arsenic oxyanions (i.e., arsenate and arsenite); they can use them either as an electron acceptor for anaerobic respiration (arsenate), or as an electron donor (arsenite) to support chemoautotrophic fixation of CO 2 into cell carbon. Unlike in freshwater or marine ecosystems, these processes may assume quantitative significance with respect to the carbon cycle in arsenic-rich soda lakes. For the past several years our research has focused on the occurrence and biogeochemical manifestations of these processes in Mono Lake, a particularly arsenic-rich environment. Herein we review some of our findings concerning the biogeochemical arsenic cycle in this lake, with the hope that it may broaden the understanding of the influence of microorganisms upon the speciation of arsenic in more common, less “extreme” environments, such as drinking water aquifers.

California

Testing the hierarchy of predictability in grassland restoration across a gradient of environmental severity

Ecological restoration is critical for recovering degraded ecosystems but is challenged by variable success and low predictability. Understanding which outcomes are more predictable and less variable following restoration can improve restoration effectiveness. Recent theory asserts that the predictability of outcomes would follow an order from most to least predictable from coarse to fine community properties (physical structure > taxonomic diversity > functional composition > taxonomic composition) and that predictability would increase with more severe environmental conditions constraining species establishment. We tested this “hierarchy of predictability” hypothesis by synthesizing outcomes along an aridity gradient with 11 grassland restoration projects across the United States. We used 1829 vegetation monitoring plots from 227 restoration treatments, spread across 52 sites. We fit generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict six indicators of restoration outcomes as a function of restoration characteristics (i.e., seed mixes, disturbance, management actions, time since restoration) and used variance explained by models and model residuals as proxies for restoration predictability. We did not find consistent support for our hypotheses. Physical structure was among the most predictable outcomes when the response variable was relative abundance of grasses, but unpredictable for total canopy cover. Similarly, one dimension of taxonomic composition related to species identities was unpredictable, but another dimension of taxonomic composition indicating whether exotic or native species dominated the community was highly predictable. Taxonomic diversity (i.e., species richness) and functional composition (i.e., mean trait values) were intermittently predictable. Predictability also did not increase consistently with aridity. The dimension of taxonomic composition related to the identity of species in restored communities was more predictable (i.e., smaller residuals) in more arid sites, but functional composition was less predictable (i.e., larger residuals), and other outcomes showed no significant trend. Restoration outcomes were most predictable when they related to variation in dominant species, while those responding to rare species were harder to predict, indicating a potential role of scale in restoration predictability. Overall, our results highlight additional factors that might influence restoration predictability and add support to the importance of continuous monitoring and active management beyond one-time seed addition for successful grassland restoration in the United States.

Continental United States

Validating a time series of annual grass percent cover in the sagebrush ecosystem

We mapped yearly (2000–2016) estimates of annual grass percent cover for much of the sagebrush ecosystem of the western United States using remotely sensed, climate, and geophysical data in regression-tree models. Annual grasses senesce and cure by early summer and then become beds of fine fuel that easily ignite and spread fire through rangeland systems. Our annual maps estimate the extent of these fuels and can serve as a tool to assist land managers and scientists in understanding the ecosystem’s response to weather variations, disturbances, and management. Validating the time series of annual maps is important for determining the usefulness of the data. To validate these maps, we compare Bureau of Land Management Assessment Inventory and Monitoring (AIM) data to mapped estimates and use a leave-one-out spatial assessment technique that is effective for validating maps that cover broad geographical extents. We hypothesize that the time series of annual maps exhibits high spatiotemporal variability because precipitation is highly variable in arid and semiarid environments where sagebrush is native, and invasive annual grasses respond to precipitation. The remotely sensed data that help drive our regression-tree model effectively measures annual grasses’ response to precipitation. The mean absolute error (MAE) rate varied depending on the validation data and technique used for comparison. The AIM plot data and our maps had substantial spatial incongruence, but despite this, the MAE rate for the assessment equaled 12.62%. The leave-one-out accuracy assessment had an MAE of 8.43%. We quantified bias, and bias was more substantial at higher percent cover. These annual maps can help management identify actions that may alleviate the current cycle of invasive grasses because it enables the assessment of the variability of annual grass − percent cover distribution through space and time, as part of dynamic systems rather than static systems.

Rangeland Ecology and Management

Monitoring drought impact on annual forage production in semi-arid grasslands: A case study of Nebraska sandhills

Land management practices and disturbances (e.g. overgrazing, fire) have substantial effects on grassland forage production. When using satellite remote sensing to monitor climate impacts, such as drought stress on annual forage production, minimizing land management practices and disturbance effects sends a clear climate signal to the productivity data. This study investigates the effect of this climate signal by: (1) providing spatial estimates of expected biomass under specific climate conditions, (2) determining which drought indices explain the majority of interannual variability in this biomass, and (3) developing a predictive model that estimates the annual biomass early in the growing season. To address objective 1, this study uses an established methodology to determine Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP) in the Nebraska Sandhills, US, representing annual forage levels after accounting for non-climatic influences. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were used to approximate actual ecosystem performance. Seventeen years (2000–2016) of annual EEP was calculated using piecewise regression tree models of site potential and climate data. Expected biomass (EB), EEP converted to biomass in kg*ha −1 *yr −1 , was then used to examine the predictive capacity of several drought indices and the onset date of the growing season. Subsets of these indices were used to monitor and predict annual expected grassland biomass. Independent field-based biomass production data available from two Sandhills locations were used for validation of the EEP model. The EB was related to field-based biomass production (R 2 = 0.66 and 0.57) and regional rangeland productivity statistics of the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) dataset. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), the 3- and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), which represented moisture conditions during May, June and July, explained the majority of the interannual biomass variability in this grassland system (three-month ESI explained roughly 72% of the interannual biomass variability). A new model was developed to use drought indices from early in the growing season to predict the total EB for the whole growing season. This unique approach considers only climate-related drought signal on productivity. The capability to estimate annual EB by the end of May will potentially enable land managers to make informed decisions about stocking rates, hay purchase needs, and other management issues early in the season, minimizing their potential drought losses. View Full-Text

Nebraska

Climatic controls on the distribution of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States: Knowledge gaps and emerging research needs

Foundation plant species play a critical role in coastal wetlands, often modifying abiotic conditions that are too stressful for most organisms and providing the primary habitat features that support entire ecological communities. Here, we consider the influence of climatic drivers on the distribution of foundation plant species within coastal wetlands of the conterminous USA. Using region-level syntheses, we identified 24 dominant foundation plant species within 12 biogeographic regions, and we categorized species and biogeographic regions into four groups: graminoids, mangroves, succulents, and unvegetated. Literature searches were used to characterize the level of research directed at each of the 24 species. Most coastal wetlands research has been focused on a subset of foundation species, with about 45% of publications directed at just one grass species—Spartina alterniflora. An additional 14 and 8% have been directed, respectively, at two mangrove species—Rhizophora mangle and Avicennia germinans. At the national scale, winter temperature extremes govern the distribution of mangrove forests relative to salt marsh graminoids, and arid conditions can produce hypersaline conditions that increase the dominance of succulent plants, algal mats, and unvegetated tidal flats (i.e., salt flats, salt pans) relative to graminoid and mangrove plants. Collectively, our analyses illustrate the diversity of foundation plant species in the conterminous USA and begin to elucidate the influence of climatic drivers on their distribution. However, our results also highlight critical knowledge gaps and identify emerging research needs for assessing climate change impacts. Given the importance of plant-mediated processes in coastal wetland ecosystems, there is a pressing need in many biogeographic regions for additional species- and functional group-specific research that can be used to better anticipate coastal wetland responses to rising sea levels and changing temperature and precipitation regimes.

Estuaries and Coasts