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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Effects of storm surge exceedance value on overwash and inundation forecasts

Hurricane induced sediment transport and flooding can cause catastrophic damage to coastal communities. Forecasts test our understanding of the drivers of sediment transport and flooding, as well as quantify potential storm effects on coastlines. Real-time availability of forecasts allows emergency response and management decisions to be made with additional information. This study analyzed the skill of probabilistic forecasts of overwash and inundation along the Louisiana coastline from back-to-back Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020. To test skill, forecasts were compared with observations of mean water level relative to beach elevations and evidence of overwash and inundation identified in post-storm aerial imagery. We found that probabilistic forecasts accurately identified areas where overwash and inundation were likely to occur. In some cases, forecasts also produced a conservative estimation of overwash and inundation. For the first time, we explored the role of exceedance value in probabilistic forecasts of overwash and inundation and found that choice of exceedance value can influence forecasts. Additionally, we found that waves contributed up to 27% of the mean water level and up to 63% of the extreme water level during Hurricanes Laura and Delta.

Louisiana, Texas↗
USGS2026

Hydrothermal manganese-oxide mineralization of a carbonate ooze, Samoan hotspot region, South Pacific Ocean

Low-temperature hydrothermal manganese oxides occur throughout the global oceans. However, the hydrothermal replacement of a carbonate ooze by manganese oxides is described here for the first time. The 24 samples dredged from three locations around the Territory of American Samoa in the South Pacific Ocean include six samples with remnant carbonate and volcaniclastic sediments, which we refer to as “low Mn,” and 18 samples in which the mineralization is pervasive and has replaced most original sediment, termed “high Mn.” The 18 high-Mn samples exhibit a mean Mn content of 51 wt.%. Higher Li and Mn contents and lower Fe contents in the high-Mn samples indicate a hydrothermal origin and distinguish these samples from hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts. Mn-oxide layers are up to 90 mm thick, some with columns to 44 mm long and 10 mm wide, the magnitude of which has not been described previously. Samples are composed of birnessite and 10 Å phyllomanganate minerals. Textures of the thickest Mn layers indicate mineralization below the seabed from ascending fluids during multiple hydrothermal pulses. Mineralization took place by complete to partial replacement and cementation of foraminiferal sediments intermixed with volcaniclastic sediments in varying amounts. Our results highlight the production of carbonate sediment-hosted hydrothermal Mn oxides from multiple hydrothermal sources within the Samoan volcanic chain. The potential extensive distribution on the regional scale of this newly described mineralization process and unique element enrichments raise questions about its broader distribution globally and potential importance to hydrothermal processes, element mass balance, and seabed mineral resources.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗
USGS2026

When best intentions are not enough - A collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and an agricultural community

Rocky Mountain National Park is a Congressionally mandated Clean Air Act Class I Area, but years of research have documented evidence of biogeochemical and ecological change caused by atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. A coalition of government agencies—National Park Service, the Environmental Protection Agency Region 8, and the State of Colorado—developed the 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the park from the baseline in 2006 by 50% by 2032. Fifty-four percent of wet nitrogen deposition is ammonium, primarily sourced from industrial cattle and dairy operations east of the park. An Agriculture Subcommittee, meeting with regulatory and management agencies and scientists since 2006, has explored voluntary options to reduce ammonia emissions. Ammonia emissions are unregulated in the U.S. Despite sustained efforts, neither ammonium deposition nor total inorganic nitrogen deposition have declined at the rate determined to reach the targeted value by 2032. In fact, ammonia is increasing over the Front Range agricultural area. Wet nitrogen deposition in 2024 was 2.81 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , 0.61 kg N ha −1 yr −1 higher than targeted in the Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan. The collaborative approach between agricultural producers, regulatory entities, and resource managers is not working, but not for lack of effort by all parties. Cattle process nitrogen inefficiently, and while management practices can somewhat reduce the proportion of ammonia emitted from feedlots, with more than one million head of cattle east of Rocky Mountain National Park, large-scale reductions are unlikely. New programs to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (46% of wet nitrogen deposition) may reduce nitrogen deposition that is changing park ecosystems. Improved integration of crop and livestock agriculture and valuation of the ecosystem services and economy of Rocky Mountain National Park alongside agricultural value are topics for further discussion. Implications : Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to Rocky Mountain National Park has changed natural ecosystems. To protect its Clean Air Act Class I status a 2007 Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan agreed upon by state and federal agencies set a goal to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to the Park by half by 2032. Industrial livestock operations are a large source of nitrogen; an Agriculture Subcommittee explored voluntary options to reduce emissions from cattle. Despite sustained efforts nitrogen deposition has not declined. Further reductions in industry and transportation emissions will be needed reduce nitrogen deposition to Rocky Mountain National Park.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Evaluation of submersible pressure transducers for streamflow monitoring in small streams

Compact streamgages requiring minimal infrastructure and equipped with submersible pressure transducers (PTs) are increasingly used to monitor small streams, yet disparate implementations obscure their accuracy under real-world conditions. This study isolated instrumentation-derived uncertainty in stage monitoring by co-locating various combinations of commercial vented and unvented PTs with seven U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reference streamgages on small streams. Multi-year PT stage records from compact streamgages, collected and corrected following USGS protocols, were compared to concurrent reference observations. Vented PTs demonstrated an average measurement uncertainty of ±0.005 m and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of ±0.2%. Unvented PTs exhibited higher uncertainty, averaging ±0.009 m and ±0.4% MAPE. Although both sensor types had stage errors up to ±0.3 m, 95% of vented PT and unvented PT observations were within 0.01 and 0.02 m of reference stage, respectively. Analysis of additional unvented PTs revealed stage errors of up to ±1.2% when using barometric sensors within 15 km of the in-water sensor. Propagation of stage error to discharge using reference rating models resulted in cumulative discharge MAPEs of ±4.5% for vented and ±5.5% for unvented PTs. These findings highlight PTs as practical alternatives to reference instrumentation when deployed with standardized procedures, potentially expanding access to reliable streamflow data.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Zircon petrochronology fingerprints mantle sources of magmatic rare earth element deposits

The mantle sources of carbonatite and alkaline magmatic systems that host rare earth element (REE) deposits are difficult to constrain because whole-rock compositions are commonly altered. Alteration-resistant zircon trace-element compositions are used to fingerprint mantle sources at Mountain Pass, California, the largest REE deposit in the United States, and extend this approach to a global carbonatite−alkaline rock dataset. Autocrystic zircon samples from the Mountain Pass intrusive suite record subduction-like U-Sc-Nb-Yb compositions, oxidized fO2 (0.8−2.4 relative to fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer [ΔFMQ]), and Ti-in-zircon temperatures up to ∼970 °C, indicating a lithospheric mantle source enriched and oxidized by Paleoproterozoic subduction and subsequently tapped during Mesoproterozoic postcollisional lithospheric thinning. This contrasts with the ocean island basalt−like enriched mantle recorded by Mesoproterozoic zircon from the Bayan Obo carbonatite complex, China, demonstrating that world-class REE deposits of comparable age can reflect fundamentally different mantle sources. New classifiers separate subduction-metasomatized from non-subduction-enriched mantle domains with ∼90% accuracy, providing a zircon-based tool for fingerprinting the mantle source regions of magmatic REE deposits.

Geology↗
USGS2026

Getting the story straight: Common misconceptions around volcanoes and eruptions with case studies of recent events

The ability to rapidly disseminate scientific knowledge across the world has never been greater. This is paralleled by the ability of rumors to spread equally far and fast. Popular misconceptions can take root and, without correction, take on the appearance of facts. Commonly misunderstood topics include those with attention-grabbing phrasing (e.g. “Pacific Ring of Fire”, “supervolcanoes”, or “mega-tsunamis”), the intersection of volcanic research with high-profile science topics (climate or human health), aspirational science goals (eruption forecasts), and basic terminology (volcanic ash versus smoke, or magma “chambers”). In this paper, we describe eighteen misconceptions grouped in six themes (seismology, volcanoes and climate, systems and structures, volcanic hazards, timescales, photographs and footage) commonly encountered by volcanologists who are actively engaging with the public and media both during and between eruptions. Each misconception description is accompanied by takeaway points and summaries of recent research to assist the reader with the information necessary to describe the issues. Finally, we present seven case studies where incorrect information was widely shared and counteracted at well-known volcanoes and recent eruptions at Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia), Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), Kīlauea (Hawaii, U.S.A.), Tajogaite (La Palma, Spain), La Soufrière (St. Vincent), Taal Volcano (Philippines), and Yellowstone caldera (U.S.A.). This work is intended to help both volcanologists and non-specialists get the story straight, and to effectively communicate processes and scales of volcanism and volcanic hazards, impacts, and risks.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2026

Status and trend of white-cheeked geese wintering in coastal Nestucca Valley, Oregon

The status and trend of wintering goose populations along the coast of the Pacific Northwest is relatively unstudied. We estimated the status and trends of 6 subspecies of white-cheeked geese wintering in Nestucca Valley, Oregon, USA. Surveys conducted from 2007 to 2019 revealed significant variability in weekly counts among subspecies and years. Dusky ( Branta canadensis occidentalis ) and Cackling ( B . hutchinsii minima ) Geese typically arrived by mid-October and stayed until mid-April, while Aleutian Geese showed lower autumn numbers but doubled in spring. Trends indicated a significant delay in Dusky Geese arrival in recent years, with departure dates remaining constant. Total goose use-days averaged 903,899, with notable declines over the period for Aleutian ( B. h. leucopareia ), Taverner's ( B. h. taverneri )/Lesser ( B. c. parvipes ), and Western ( B. c. moffitti ) Geese. Supporting approximately 6000 geese daily, these results underscore the importance of Nestucca Bay National Wildlife Refuge and adjacent lands for wintering geese. These findings also highlight Nestucca Valley's role as a critical late-winter staging ground, particularly for Aleutian Geese, and emphasize that continued monitoring and adaptive management are essential to sustain these populations.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Effects of climate change on the Fort Apache Reservation

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, conducted a study to assess the effects of climate change on the Fort Apache Reservation in east-central Arizona. Although weather refers to short-term conditions of the atmosphere, such as air temperature, humidity, presence or absence of precipitation, wind speed, and clearness or cloudiness, climate refers to the weather patterns of a specific region averaged over a long period of time (usually at least 30 years). Climate change then refers to changes in the long-term average weather of a region. The USGS study used long-term (40+ years) records of air temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and streamflow that were collected on or near the Fort Apache Reservation to search for evidence of climate change. The results of the study showed that climate change has occurred in many of the investigated records. The detected patterns of climate change closely matched the memories obtained from interviews of Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation that were conducted in 2017. Climate change can alter the locations where plants, animals, and humans can thrive, which may threaten the safety and well-being of communities, economies, and natural heritage.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

Sediment dredging influences the seasonal biomass and community composition of microphytobenthos on a sandy shoal

Microphytobenthos on sand shoals of continental shelves support biogeochemical cycles and trophodynamics and can be affected by sediment dredging. Therefore, our goal was to assess seasonal (spring, summer, fall) microphytobenthic biomass and composition over two years (2021 and 2022) at three areas (reference, relic dredged pit, and new dredged pit) of Ship Shoal off the coast of Louisiana, USA. Surface sediment was collected for algal pigment analysis to estimate microphytobenthic biomass and community composition using high-performance liquid chromatography. The average seasonal biomass ranged from 0.2 to 16.7 μg chlorophyll a g dry sediment −1 across the three regions and was consistently high in the relic dredged pit, with peak biomass during summer 2022. All regions contained benthic diatoms, cyanobacteria, and green algae, with diatoms significantly higher in the reference shoal region compared to the other regions. Benthic cyanobacteria and green algae dominated the biomass in relic pit. Enhanced deposition of organic-rich material in the relic pit, likely drives high seasonal biomass and shifts the community to benthic cyanobacteria and green algae. New and active dredging may suppress biomass despite changes in community composition. Thus, dredging-related changes could impact the autotrophic base of the benthic food web and have potential cascading effects.

Louisiana↗
USGS2026

Evolution of arsenic speciation during thermal treatment simulating wildfire heating in arsenic-rich sediments

Understanding arsenic transformations during wildfires can help better constrain the environmental impacts of increased wildfire intensity, frequency, and burned area. Previous studies have monitored the evolution of metal(loid) speciation at specific time/temperature endpoints, hampering the comprehension of the dynamic transformations of metal(loid)s during wildfires. Here, a novel approach, namely in situ time-resolved X-ray absorption near edge structure (TR-XANES) spectroscopy, was used for the first time to monitor the heat-induced redox transformations of arsenic (As) in two As-rich sediments with different characteristics. No arsenic transformations were observed in either sediment at room temperature or when the sediments were heated to a maximum temperature of 400 ºC. When heated to a maximum temperature of 600 or 700 ºC, As underwent complex, dynamic, and partially reversible redox transformations, the extent of which varied with sediment properties, initial As speciation, and heating temperature and duration. In the case of sediments initially containing As(V) and a low sulfide/sulfate ratio, the As(V) was reduced to As(III) over a short period of time, followed by immediate reoxidation of As(III) to As(V). The extent of the transient As reduction increased with increasing maximum temperature. The final As speciation at the end of the heating experiment was not substantially different from that at the beginning of the experiment. In contrast, in sediments that were best described by a more complex combination of reference compounds (As(V) coprecipitated with or adsorbed on iron oxide, arseniosiderite, arsenopyrite) with a high sulfide/sulfate ratio, As(V) phases were reduced to As(III) and As(III) was further reduced to As(-I) (at 700 ºC, only), followed by delayed reoxidation of As(-I) to As(III) (at 700 ºC, only) and reoxidation of As(III) to As(V). Approximately 9% and 26% of all As remained as As(III) ( i.e., was not reoxidized to As(V)) at the end of the experiment when heated to a maximum temperature of 600 and 700 ºC, respectively, which is higher than the relative abundance of As(III) in the native sediment. These fire-induced As transformations can potentially enhance As mobilization to surface water and groundwater, posing risks to environmental and human health.

California↗
USGS2026

Polystyrene microplastics alter the accumulation and elimination dynamics of silver nanoparticles in Daphnia magna

Rationale Microplastics (MPs) can interact with engineered nanomaterials and alter their environmental fate and bioavailability. However, their influence on the bioaccumulation dynamics of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in aquatic filter feeders under environmentally relevant conditions remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that polystyrene microplastics (PS-MPs) alter the uptake, elimination and overall bioaccumulation dynamics of AgNPs in Daphnia magna . Methodology Adult D. magna were exposed to isotopically labeled citrate-coated 109 AgNPs in the presence and absence of PS-MPs. Waterborne uptake, dietary uptake, assimilation efficiency, food ingestion and elimination were quantified experimentally and incorporated into a biodynamic model to predict steady-state silver (Ag) concentrations under environmentally relevant exposure scenarios. Results PS-MPs increased waterborne Ag accumulation by approximately eightfold compared with AgNPs exposure alone. However, Ag elimination was substantially faster, with 98% of accumulated Ag eliminated after five days of depuration compared with 66% without PS-MPs. PS-MPs also reduced food ingestion rates (IRs), while assimilation efficiency remained largely unchanged. Biodynamic modeling predicted that steady-state Ag accumulation was approximately fivefold greater in the presence of PS-MPs, with waterborne exposure becoming the dominant accumulation pathway. Discussion These findings suggest that PS-MPs alter bioaccumulation dynamics of AgNPs in filter-feeding organisms by enhancing organism-associated Ag during waterborne exposure while accelerating Ag elimination, likely through particle-associated transport and gut egestion. Collectively, these results underscore the complexity of Ag bioaccumulation processes when MPs and AgNPs interact and highlight the importance of studies conducted under environmentally relevant conditions.

Environmental Chemistry↗
USGS2026

Evaluation and synthesis of the Yolo Bypass fish monitoring program

The Yolo Bypass is the largest functional remnant floodplain of the Sacramento River, providing benefits to aquatic taxa of the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter, Bay-Delta). Because of the Yolo Bypass’s vital role in flood control and its ecological effects, the California Department of Water Resources started the Yolo Bypass Fish Monitoring Program (YBFMP) to monitor the aquatic ecology of the floodplain. Here, we present a scientific evaluation of the monitoring program to assess the efficacy and efficiency of the program in meeting its objective of collecting biological data to understand the ecological role the Yolo Bypass plays in the larger Bay-Delta. We used a multivariate assessment of floodplain flow to classify flood events (no flood, intense, early, late) and water years (low, average, high). To assess efficacy, we used a null hypothesis approach to determine if the YBFMP could distinguish variability in measured constituents (water quality and nutrient concentrations; phytoplankton, zooplankton, drift invertebrates, and fish communities; and densities of Chinook salmon [ Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ], Sacramento splittail [ Pogonichthys macrolepidotus ], and prickly sculpin [ Cottus asper ]) across different flood regime classifications. To assess efficiency, we used a data subsampling approach to quantify the amount of data needed to reach similar conclusions to analyses that used the entire dataset. Regarding efficacy, we concluded that the YBFMP is generally effective at identifying variability across various spatial and temporal scales (including flood regimes). Regarding efficiency, we concluded that reduced sampling effort would likely result in similar conclusions, enabling program managers to identify sites or periods that do not provide data essential to meeting program objectives. Our evaluation of the YBFMP indicated where data variability might limit mechanistic inference (particularly for phytoplankton and zooplankton), thus indicating that a series of targeted studies may be a prerequisite for further analysis. This evaluation has also identified areas where existing sampling may not be providing additional informational value, allowing for reallocation of effort to address management concerns.

California↗
USGS2026

Synthesizing a twelve-year sediment trap time series of planktic foraminiferal flux in the Gulf of America (Mexico)

Sediment trap time series provide powerful frameworks for testing hypotheses about planktic foraminiferal assemblage composition, seasonality, and geochemical responses to environmental variability, all of which are central to improving paleoceanographic reconstructions. We present high resolution foraminiferal assemblage data from a long-running sediment trap (2008–2020) in the northern Gulf of America (Mexico). This study summarizes the species composition, seasonality, and size distribution of the fifteen most abundant species of planktic foraminifera, which account for 98% of total flux. Foraminiferal flux peaks in winter and reaches a minimum in summer, following the seasonal pattern of primary production in the northern Gulf. Winter assemblages are dominated by non-spinose taxa, whereas spinose taxa prevail during summer. Across nearly all species, average monthly test size covaries with temperature, independent of seasonal flux trends. Notably, Trilobatus sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei show a significant decline in relative abundance and flux during 2017–2020, nearly disappearing from the assemblage.

Journal of Foraminiferal Research↗
USGS2026

Future of the Colorado River phase 2: Integrated operation of the Powell/Grand Canyon/Mead segment for water supply, hydropower, and river ecosystems

State and federal agencies are negotiating water-supply agreements that may govern water supply and storage in the Colorado River Basin through 2046. Current operating policies in the Colorado River primarily focus on water supply implications with less focus on the potential effects to other resources. Models that forecast the response of multiple resources over the short- and long-term term to water supply decisions could lead to greater consideration of these resources in future water supply decision making. In this project, we developed a dynamic programming tool to identify potential release decisions that help maximize different management objectives under different scenarios for storing water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell in attempt to inform efforts to consider multiple resources. We ask, “ How can decisions under different reservoir storage scenarios affect river resource management objectives, what are the trade-offs among these objectives, and how can we consider more resources when making water supply decisions? ”.

Colorado River↗
USGS2026

Microclimate mediates the strength and direction of avian biotic interactions

Theory predicts that that the strength and direction of species interactions can shift from being competitive in benign environments toward being facilitative in stressful environments. However, the environmental context dependency of species interactions has rarely been tested in animal communities. We capitalized on a 15-year, landscape-scale dataset, collected annually in a relatively stable old-growth forest environment to test the long-held hypothesis that the strength and direction of species interactions might be mediated by climatic conditions. It is generally accepted that competitive and facilitative interactions drive the distributions of many species. Using multi-species dynamic occupancy models applied to long-term data, we tested whether annual settlement by bird species could affect either the persistence or settlement by other phylogenetically related species, and whether these interactions are mediated by microclimate. We found that species interactions were influenced by microclimate for some, but not all avian species pairs. Related species pairs more often showed settlement dynamics that were indicative of attraction rather than repulsion. In some cases, competitive interactions at warmer microclimates flipped to become facilitative in colder ones. However, the reverse was also true: facilitative interactions amplified for some species under warm conditions. Furthermore, species pairs that were closely related were more likely to exhibit competitive relationships along at least part of the microclimatic gradient. Our results highlight the importance of using long-term data to incorporate competitive and facilitative interactions into species distribution models and support the notion that the strength and direction of species interactions can be dependent on microclimatic environmental conditions.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Long-term effects of rangeland improvements on cattle distribution: A ranch-scale case study

Resource matching can be a common assumption that underlies anthropogenic rangeland improvements for wildlife or livestock. Countless resources are spent on targeted vegetation manipulations for both livestock and wildlife, but selection for improved areas has not been well quantified in livestock. This case study investigates whether cattle exhibit preferential use of historically improved rangeland sites within sagebrush steppe ecosystems, and whether these effects are relevant long-term compared with inherent landscape heterogeneity. We used a generalized linear mixed-effects resource selection function on Global Positioning System points collected at a fix rate of 2 h from a subset of animals grazing throughout 14 pastures (totaling 13 079 ha) over 3 yr to investigate cattle distribution in relation to historical rangeland improvements. These consisted of various methods for reducing woody plant cover and increasing forage production, most followed by grass and legume reseeding. Overall selection for treated areas was positive (0.16, P < 0.0 0 01), but highly variable (pasture estimates range from-1.81 to 0.77). Differences in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) accounted for 25% of the variation in treatment selection, whereas herbaceous production did not have an appreciable effect on treatment selection. Within individual pastures, the effects of landscape variables (distance to water, slope, herbaceous production, EVI, tree cover, and shrub cover) were more variable than treatment effects and on average 2.4-fold more influential to selection than anthropogenic treatments. Still, the combined effects of all landscape variables accounted for only 8% of the variation in site selection. The observed inconsistency among selection patterns underscores the complexity of large herbivore resource selection behavior, and the statistical challenges to modeling that behavior. These results provide limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that large herbivores select long-term (5–20 yr post establishment) for range improvements in relation to their forage quality/quantity in a resource-matching manner.

Utah↗
USGS2026

A roadmap for identifying and interpreting physical processes and national water model prediction bias associated with baseflow index regimes across the contiguous United States

Understanding how groundwater–surface water interactions shape streamflow variability is critical for diagnosing low flow behavior and prediction bias in continental scale hydrologic models. We present a process informed framework that links observed baseflow (BF) dynamics, watershed attributes, and National Water Model (NWM) performance across the contiguous United States. Using daily observed streamflow from 797 reference quality streamgages, we developed monthly baseflow index (BFI) signatures using a streamgage specific, calibrated digital filter. Hierarchical clustering of these signatures identified seven distinct BFI regimes capturing regional and seasonal variability. We evaluated NWM v3.0 retrospective streamflow performance within each regime using multiple hydrograph and flow duration curve-based metrics. Model skill varied systematically across regimes: mixed flow systems were simulated most accurately, while predominantly BF dominated and quickflow dominated regimes exhibited substantially poorer performance. Across nearly all regimes, the NWM underestimated observed BFI magnitude and frequently failed to reproduce seasonal BF patterns, indicating systematic biases in simulated low flow contributions. To relate these regimes to potential process controls, we trained a Random Forest classifier using static watershed attributes and applied Shapley Additive Explanations to identify features most strongly associated with each regime. Results highlight regionally varying influences, including the dominant role of snow fraction and seasonal runoff timing in snow dominated basins and the importance of evapotranspiration and aridity in quickflow dominated systems. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how hydrologic signatures combined with interpretable machine learning can diagnose regime specific model biases and generate process-based hypotheses about limitations in large scale hydrologic prediction systems.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2026

Widespread landslide activity in an extreme wet season and implications for regional sediment management, eastern San Francisco Bay area, California

Watershed sediment production is expected to increase in a warmer future with more extreme rain, with cascading effects throughout drainage and sediment-transport networks. This study investigated landscape-scale sediment movement in the eastern San Francisco Bay area, California, USA, during the extreme 2016–2017 wet season that brought major rainfall, landslides, and flooding. Mapping 8,928 landslides across a 1,050-km 2 study area revealed new sediment yield of 510–956 t/km 2 , equivalent to denudation of 193–361 mm/ky. These results correspond closely to long-term denudation rates in the northern and central California Coast Ranges, indicating that mass wasting in very wet years dominates long-term sediment mobilization. However, due to long residence times in drainage networks, the 2017 landslides contributed at most ∼1%–2% of the estimated locally derived fluvial sediment transport to San Francisco Bay. Although the amount of sediment mobilized did not threaten municipal water supplies, small rangeland impoundments in this mixed-use landscape lost storage capacity to new sedimentation. Considering regional sediment supply and demand, even the exceptionally large sediment delivery in an extreme wet year cannot meet the need for sediment to accrete tidal wetlands in the bay. To keep pace with rising sea levels, this abnormally high terrestrial sediment input would need to occur in 50 of the next 75 years, an unlikely occurrence due to the prevalence of recent drought years. Shoreline protection and restoration in the bay would need additional sources of sediment, such as through management of dredged sediment through beneficial-reuse programs.

California↗