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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Human influence on California fire regimes

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS1995

Water-quality assessment of the upper Snake River Basin, Idaho and western Wyoming — Environmental setting, 1980-92

The 35,800-square-mile upper Snake River Basin is one of 20 areas studied as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Objectives of NAWQA are to study ground- and surface-water quality, biology, and their relations to land-use activities. Major land and water uses that affect water quality in the basin are irrigated agriculture, grazing, aquaculture, food processing, and wastewater treatment. Data summarized in this report are used in companion reports to help define the relations among land use, water use, water quality, and biological conditions. The upper Snake River Basin is located in southeastern Idaho and northwestern Wyoming and includes small parts of Nevada and Utah. Total population in the basin was about 425,000 in 1990. Major urban areas are Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Rexburg, and Twin Falls, Idaho, which make up 10, 11,3, and 6 percent of the total population, respectively. Climate in the basin is mostly semiarid and mean annual precipitation ranges from 8 to more than 60 inches. The eastern Snake River Plain is the major geologic feature in the basin and is delineated mostly by Quaternary and Tertiary basalt flows. It is about 55 to 62 miles wide and 320 miles long and bisects the basin in a northeast-southwest direction. The Snake River is the dominant surface-water feature and flows about 453 miles from the southern border of Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming to King Hill, Idaho, where it leaves the basin. The Snake River flows through five reservoirs that provide a total storage capacity of more than 4 million acre-feet. Gravity-flow diversions are predominant in the upper part of the basin and totaled 8.8 million.acre-feet in 1980. Pumped diversions occur mainly in the lower part of the basin and totaled 408,500 acre-feet in 1980. The Snake River Plain aquifer is the predominant ground-water feature in the upper Snake River Basin and underlies the eastern Snake River Plain. The upper 500 feet of the aquifer may store 200 to 300 million acre-feet of water. Ground-water resources that supply agricultural lands are sustained by recharge from surface-water irrigation, precipitation, and tributary inflow. Major ground-water discharges are at springs and seeps or from ground-water pumpage for irrigation. Water use in the basin is dominated by irrigated agriculture, which is the largest consumptive water use in the basin. Major crops in the basin include potatoes, wheat, sugar beets, hay, and barley. Most irrigation needs are supplied from surface-water sources through a series of canals and laterals. In 1990, about 2.5 million acres were irrigated with more than 14.2 million acre-feet of surface and ground water. About 21 percent of the basin is agricultural land and 50 percent is rangeland. Idaho leads the Nation in trout production for commercial sale. Combined mean annual discharges from 12 aquacultural facilities in the basin (1985-90) were about 787,000 acre-feet. These facilities are clustered in a reach of the Snake River between Milner Dam and King Hill where ground-water discharge is from many seeps and springs that provide sufficient quantities of good-quality water. Other facilities that release effluent to the Snake River include 13 municipal wastewater treatment plants and 3 industrial facilities.

Idaho, Wyoming↗
USGS2006

Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern california coastal shrublands

Fire disturbance is a primary agent of change in the mediterranean-climate chaparral shrublands of southern California, USA. However, fire frequency has been steadily increasing in coastal regions due to ignitions at the growing wildland-urban interface. Although chaparral is resilient to a range of fire frequencies, successively short intervals between fires can threaten the persistence of some species, and the effects may differ according to plant functional type. California shrublands support high levels of biological diversity, including many endangered and endemic species. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-term effects of altered fire regimes on these communities. A spatially explicit simulation model of landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) was used to predict the effects of frequent fire on the distribution of dominant plant functional types in a study area administered by the National Park Service. Shrubs dependent on fire-cued seed germination were most sensitive to frequent fire and lost substantial cover to other functional types, including drought-deciduous subshrubs that typify coastal sage scrub and nonnative annual grasses. Shrubs that resprout were favored by higher fire frequencies and gained in extent under these treatments. Due to this potential for vegetation change, caution is advised against the widespread use of prescribed fire in the region. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2008

Seasonal temperature responses to land-use change in the western United States

In the western United States, more than 79 000??km2 has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land-atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) - RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM - to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (- 1.4 to - 3.1????C) and maximum (- 2.9 to - 6.1????C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2019

Potential for increased inundation in flood-prone regions of southeast Florida in response to climate and sea-level changes in Broward County, Florida, 2060–69

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Broward County Environmental Planning and Resilience Division, has developed county-scale and local-scale groundwater/surface-water models to study the potential for increased inundation and flooding in eastern Broward County that are due to changes in future climate and sea-level rise. These models were constructed by using MODFLOW 2005, with the surface-water system represented by using the Surface-Water Routing process and a new Urban Runoff process. The local-scale model allowed the use of finer grid resolution in a selected area of the county, whereas the county-scale model provided boundary conditions for the local-scale model and insight into the hydrologic behavior of the larger system. The aquifer layering, properties, and boundaries relied heavily on a previous three-dimensional variable-density solute-transport model of the same area developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The surface-water system within these new models actively simulates a part of the extensive canal network by using level-pool routing and active structure operations within the Surface-Water Routing process. These models were used to simulate a historical base-case period (1990–99) by using measured data and regional climate model rainfall and potential evapotranspiration output. The simulated flow and water-level results generally captured the behavior of the hydrologic system. A future period (2060–69) was simulated by using regional climate model rainfall and potential evapotranspiration output representing a wetter and drier future and low, intermediate, and high sea-level rise projections. The results were used to evaluate the potential effects on the surface-water drainage system, coastal-structure operation, and wet-season groundwater levels. Future period simulations using the county-scale model indicate that (1) the effects of the changing climate and sea level are much more evident in eastern and coastal areas of Broward County compared to western areas, with increases in groundwater level nearly equivalent to sea-level rise; (2) coastal groundwater-level increases are distributed farther inland in the wetter future scenarios than in the drier future scenarios; (3) water levels at the westernmost groundwater station locations exhibited little change caused by sea-level rise and showed more dependence on changes in precipitation; (4) there was a reduced west-to-east groundwater gradient with increasing sea-level rise; and (5) increased downstream tidal stage at the S–13 structure resulted in increased reliance on the pump to control upstream inland canal stages. Future simulations using the local-scale model indicate similar behavior as seen in the county-scale model: (1) the coastal areas exhibited the largest impacts in groundwater levels in the future scenarios; (2) the westernmost, interior areas exhibited little change during the future scenarios; and (3) there was an increased reliance on the pump at the S–13 coastal structure but to a lesser extent than indicated in the county-scale model because of the reduced temporal scale of the local-scale model. Possible adaptation and mitigation strategies were simulated to evaluate the county-scale and local-scale models’ ability to simulate hydrologic changes. Alterations to S–13 pump operations within the county-scale model were tested, and results indicate a reduced effect of sea-level rise inland of the control structure, but the affected area is spatially limited. The concept of using pumps to reduce the local groundwater levels in two neighborhood-sized areas was tested by using the local-scale model. The MODFLOW 2005 Drain package was used to remove groundwater by using drainage elevations set to zero, 1 foot, and 2 feet above average wet-season groundwater levels. Area 1 was well connected to coastal boundaries, and a high rate of groundwater removal was required, whereas the rate of groundwater removal required was greatly reduced in Area 2, which is less connected to tidal boundaries. Water for these scenarios was assumed to be pumped to tide with no downstream effects.

Florida↗
USGS1986

Trace metal seasonal variations in Texas marine sediments

Trace elements in coastal environments are derived from three major sources: (1) the bordering watershed; (2) the offshore marine environment; and (3) industrial and/or urban effluent. The site of deposition, however, is controlled by physical and chemical processes in the coastal zone. In many cases, these processes are controlled by climate and can vary seasonally. In the harbor at Corpus Christi, Texas, the summer climate creates an oxygen-poor environment in the water column near the sediment-water interface. This causes chalcophilic metals to precipitate from the water, resulting in high concentrations in the sediments near the source. During the winter, turbulence created by strong winds causes the entire water mass to become aerated and oxidizing, and remobilization of some metals results. In addition, this turbulence accelerates circulation which transports the metal-enriched waters from the harbor. On the outer continental shelf of south Texas, the infaunal activity varies seasonally with bottom water temperatures. As this infaunal activity has an effect on the chemical environment within the sediment near the sediment-water interface, the observed trace metal content at the interface also appears to change with the seasons.

Texas↗
USGS2021

The basin characterization model—A regional water balance software package

This report documents the computer software package, Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8)—a monthly, gridded, regional water-balance model—and provides detailed operational instructions and example applications. After several years of many applications and uses of a previous version, CA-BCM, published in 2014, the BCMv8 was refined to improve the accuracy of the water-balance components, particularly the recharge estimate, which is the most difficult to accurately assess. The improvement of the various water-balance components targeted the actual evapotranspiration component, which, in turn, reduced the uncertainty of the recharge estimate. The improvement of this component was enabled by the availability of a national, gridded actual-evapotranspiration product from the U.S. Geological Survey that was unique in its scope to combine remotely sensed spatial variability and ground-based long-term water-balance constraints. This dataset provided the ability to assess monthly actual evapotranspiration for 62 vegetation types and to perform regional calibration in watersheds throughout California with the objective of closing the water balance using improved estimates for each component. The refinements, including vegetation-specific evapotranspiration, enabled the development of applications that could explore various aspects of landscape disturbance, such as wildfire, forest management, or urbanization. The improvements to BCMv8 also provided the ability to assess long-term sustainability of water resources under a variety of management applications or future climate projections.

California↗
USGS2022

Integrating urban planning and water management through green infrastructure in the United States-Mexico border

Creating sustainable, resilient, and livable cities calls for integrative approaches and collaborative practices across temporal and spatial scales. However, practicability is challenged by institutional, social, and technical complexities and the need to build collective understanding of integrated approaches. Rapid urbanization along the United States-Mexico border, fueled by industrialization, trade, and migration, has resulted in cities confronted with recurrent flooding risk, extended drought, water pollution, habitat destruction and systemic vulnerabilities. The international border, which separates natural and built ecosystems, is both a challenge and an opportunity, making a unique social and institutional setting ideal for testing the integration of urban planning and water management. Our research focuses on fusing multi-functional and multi-scalar green infrastructure to restore ecosystem services through a strategic binational planning process. This paper describes this planning process, including the development and application of both a land suitability analysis and a hydrological model to optimally site green infrastructure in the Nogales, Arizona, United States—Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, cross border region. We draw lessons from this process and stakeholder feedback focused on the potential for urban green infrastructure, to allow for adaptation and even transformation in the face of current and future challenges such as limited resources, underdeveloped governance, bordering, and climate change. In sum, a cross border network of green infrastructure can provide a backbone to connect this transboundary watershed while providing both hydrological and social benefits.

Frontiers in Water↗
USGS2012

Reconnaissance of contaminants in selected wastewater-treatment-plant effluent and stormwater runoff entering the Columbia River, Columbia River Basin, Washington and Oregon, 2008-10

Toxic contamination is a significant concern in the Columbia River Basin in Washington and Oregon. To help water managers and policy makers in decision making about future sampling efforts and toxic-reduction activities, a reconnaissance was done to assess contaminant concentrations directly contributed to the Columbia River through wastewater-treatment-plant (WWTP) effluent and stormwater runoff from adjacent urban environments and to evaluate instantaneous loadings to the Columbia River Basin from these inputs. Nine cities were selected in Oregon and Washington to provide diversity in physical setting, climate characteristics, and population density—Wenatchee, Richland, Umatilla, The Dalles, Hood River, Portland, Vancouver, St. Helens, and Longview. Samples were collected from a WWTP in each city and analyzed for anthropogenic organic compounds, pharmaceuticals, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDEs [brominated flame-retardants]), organochlorine or legacy compounds, currently used pesticides, mercury, and estrogenicity. Of the 210 compounds analyzed in the WWTP-effluent samples, 112 (53 percent) were detected, and the detection rate for most compound classes was greater than 80 percent. Despite the differences in location, population, treatment type, and plant size, detection frequencies were similar for many of the compounds detected among the WWTPs. By contrast, the occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was sporadic, and PCBs were detected at only three WWTPs. The stormwater-runoff samples were analyzed for a slightly different set of contaminants, with the focus on those expected to be related to road and land runoff—PCBs, PBDEs, organochlorine compounds, PAHs, currently used pesticides, trace elements, mercury, and oil and grease. A complex mixture of compounds was detected in stormwater runoff, with detections of 114 (58 percent) of the 195 compounds analyzed. The detection patterns and concentrations measured in the stormwater-runoff samples, however, were more heterogeneous than in the WWTP-effluent samples. This reflects differences in various factors, including suspended-sediment concentrations and known contamination sources present in some watersheds. Trace elements and PAHs, which are related to automobiles and impervious surfaces, were the most widespread compound classes detected in stormwater runoff, a typical finding in stormwater runoff in urban areas. With a better understanding of the presence of these contaminants in the environment, future work can focus on developing research to characterize the effects of these contaminants on aquatic life and prioritize toxic-reduction efforts for the Columbia River Basin.

Washington;Oregon↗
USGS2021

Optimizing preservation for multiple types of historic structures under climate change

Cultural resources in coastal parks and recreation areas are vulnerable to climate change. The US National Park Service (NPS) is facing the challenge of insufficient budget allocations for both maintenance and climate adaptation of historic structures. Research on adaptation planning for cultural resources has predominately focused on vulnerability assessments of heritage sites; however, few studies integrate multiple factors (e.g., vulnerability, cultural significance, use potential, and costs) that managers should consider when making tradeoff decisions about which cultural resources to prioritize for adaptation. Moreover, heritage sites typically include multiple types of cultural resources, and researchers have yet to examine such complex tradeoffs. This study applies the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model as a decision support framework to evaluate the tradeoffs of adaptation actions among multiple types of historic structures—wooden buildings, masonry and concrete buildings, forts, and batteries—under varying budget scenarios. Results suggest that the resource values of different types of historic structures vary greatly under a range of budget scenarios, and tradeoffs have to be made among different types of historical structures to achieve optimal planning objectives. Moreover, periodic, incremental funding and partial maintenance are identified as optimal funding strategies for preservation needs of cost-intensive historic structures. Also, adaptative use of historical buildings (e.g., building occupancy) can improve the resource values when budgets are constrained. The OptiPres Model provides managers with a unique framework to inform adaptation planning efforts for a broad range of historic structures, which is transferable across coastal parks to enhance historic preservation planning under climate change.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗
USGS2023

Tree-ring derived avalanche frequency and climate associations in a high-latitude, maritime climate

Snow avalanches are a natural hazard in mountainous areas worldwide with severe impacts that include fatalities, damage to infrastructure, disruption to commerce, and landscape disturbance. Understanding long-term avalanche frequency patterns, and associated climate and weather influences, improves our understanding of how climate change may affect avalanche activity. We used dendrochronological techniques to evaluate the historical frequency of large magnitude avalanches (LMAs) in the high-latitude climate of southeast Alaska, United States. We collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between 1720 and 2018, which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with LMA activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring-derived avalanche data set with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found that February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of LMA activity in the study area. Specifically, LMA activity occurred during winters with substantial February and March precipitation and neutral or negative (cold) ONI values, while years not characterized by LMAs occur more frequently during warm winters (positive ONI values). Our examination of the climate-avalanche relationship in southeast Alaska sheds light on important climate variables and physical processes associated with LMA years. These results can be used to inform long-term infrastructure planning and avalanche mitigation operations in an urban area, such as Juneau, where critical infrastructure is subject to substantial avalanche hazard.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Climate change

Amphibian ecology and distribution are strongly correlated with climate. Regional patterns of amphibian biodiversity are intimately linked to temperature, evapotranspiration rate, and clines in humidity. While amphibians are and will continue to be adversely affected by recent and projected changes in climate, research suggests that adaptation may happen more slowly than the expected rate of environmental shifts. Here, we review conservation-relevant aspects of both realised and potential impacts of climate change, and outline options for amphibian conservation planning and management. Recent advances in our understanding of climate change impacts on amphibians have primarily stemmed from ecological modelling and direct assessment of climatic tolerances and dispersal capacities through physiological assays, landscape genetics, and dispersal tracking. Anthropogenic climate change has already altered amphibian assemblages and their impacts on ecosystem functioning and services. Because of known and hypothesised ecological tolerances, many amphibians might have reached or exceeded most limits in their ability to adapt to or tolerate further climate change, however the uncertainties are substantial. Implementation of conservation planning and action can help to forestall severe impacts of environmental shifts. Scientific research and science-based decision-making and policy development have already lagged; the current pace of conservation planning and action may not allow for effective identification of threats and mitigation. An increased response rate could help to avert further loss of amphibian biodiversity and decay of ecosystem services. The lack of basic field research in natural habitats continues to be an underlying challenge. We suggest priority areas of research to include the development of biologically realistic predictive models of amphibian response to climate change, field verification of model estimates and key parameters, population monitoring across multiple sites and taxa, and a combination of efforts within and across ecosystems to understand how impacts of climate change can be better mitigated.

Book chapter↗
USGS2008

Environmental settings of selected streams sampled for mercury in Oregon, Wisconsin, and Florida, 2002-06

From 2002 through 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program conducted studies investigating mercury biogeochemistry and food-web bioaccumulation in eight streams from three distinct geographic areas of the United States. These streams varied greatly in environmental characteristics, including land-cover, hydrologic, climatic, and chemical characteristics. They ranged from a clear-water, high-gradient, low-percentage wetland stream in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, to an urban stream near Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to a low-gradient, blackwater stream draining the Okefenokee and Pinhook Swamps along the Georgia-Florida border. This report summarizes the environmental settings of these eight streams.

Florida, Oregon, Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

What makes wildfires destructive in California?

As human impacts from wildfires mount, there is a pressing need to understand why structures are lost in destructive fires. Despite growing research on factors contributing to structure loss, fewer studies have focused on why some fires are destructive and others are not. We characterized overall differences between fires that resulted in structure loss (“destructive fires”) and those that did not (“non-destructive wildfires”) across three California regions. Then, we performed statistical analyses on large fires only (≥100 ha) to distinguish the primary differences between large destructive large fires and large non-destructive fires. Overall, destructive fires were at least an order of magnitude larger than non-destructive fires, with the largest area burned varying by season in different regions. Fire severity was also significantly higher in destructive than non-destructive fires. The statistical analysis showed that, in the San Francisco Bay Area and the northern Sierra Nevada foothills, proximity to the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) was by far the most important factor differentiating destructive and non-destructive wildfires, followed by different combinations of short-term weather, seasonal climate, topography, and vegetation productivity. In Southern California, wind velocity on the day of the fire ignition was the top factor, which is consistent with previous assumptions that wind-driven fires tend to be most destructive and most of the destruction occurs within the first 24 h. Additionally, Southern California’s high population density increases the odds that a human-caused wildfire may occur during a severe fire-weather event. The geographical differences among regions and the variation of factors explaining the differences between large destructive and large non-destructive fires reflects the complexity inherent in decision-making for reducing wildfire risk. Land use planning to reduce future exposure of housing development to fire and increased focus on wildfire ignition prevention emerge as two approaches with substantial potential.

California↗
USGS2018

Development of the Wildlife Adaptation Menu for Resource Managers

The Climate Change Response Framework is an example of a collaborative, cross-boundary approach to create a set of tools, partnerships, and actions to support climate-informed conservation and land management. Historically, this effort has focused on the needs of forest managers and forestry professionals. In recent years, however, there has been increasing demand for science and tools to address climate change adaptation in wildlife management and conservation. Not only do wildlife and resource managers need the best available science, it must also be presented in a usable format with feasible options within the purview of an individual manager. The research team is first completing a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed studies to summarize what wildlife-related management actions currently exist in climate change adaptation. They will then develop and test a “menu” of climate change adaptation actions that are suitable for wildlife management in terrestrial ecosystems. This Wildlife Adaptation Menu will be modeled off existing adaptation menus for Forestry and Urban Forestry, and it will be designed to be used in conjunction with the Adaptation Workbook . In addition to a menu of adaption strategies and approaches, the scientists will also identify site-level tactics and develop case studies demonstrating the use and implementation of the menu. To ensure that information and tools meet the needs of managers, the team is involving and integrating input from wildlife managers at every step of the process. Managers will be involved in scoping the project, testing the menu, and implementing the menu.

Final Report↗
USGS2019

Simulating land cover change impacts on groundwater recharge under selected climate projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi

This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. End-of-century mean annual groundwater recharge was estimated under four future land cover scenarios: Future 1 (conservation-focused), Future 2 (status-quo), Future 3 (development-focused), and Future 4 (balanced conservation and development), and two downscaled climate projections: a coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 “dry climate” future and a CMIP3 A1B “wet climate” future. Results were compared to recharge estimated using the 2017 baseline land cover to understand how changing land management and climate could influence groundwater recharge. Estimated recharge increased island-wide under all future land cover and climate combinations and was dominated by specific land cover transitions. For the dry future climate, recharge for land cover Futures 1 to 4 increased by 12%, 0.7%, 0.01%, and 11% relative to 2017 land cover conditions, respectively. Corresponding increases under the wet future climate were 10%, 0.9%, 0.6%, and 9.3%. Conversion from fallow/grassland to diversified agriculture increased irrigation, and therefore recharge. Above the cloud zone (610 m), conversion from grassland to native or alien forest led to increased fog interception, which increased recharge. The greatest changes to recharge occurred in Futures 1 and 4 in areas where irrigation increased, and where forest expanded within the cloud zone. Furthermore, new future urban expansion is currently slated for coastal areas that are already water-stressed and had low recharge projections. This study demonstrated that a spatially-explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate, and the outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Estimating spatially and temporally varying recharge and runoff from precipitation and urban irrigation in the Los Angeles Basin, California

A daily precipitation-runoff model, referred to as the Los Angeles Basin watershed model (LABWM), was used to estimate recharge and runoff for a 5,047 square kilometer study area that included the greater Los Angeles area and all surface-water drainages potentially contributing recharge to a 1,450 square kilometer groundwater-study area underlying the greater Los Angeles area, referred to as the Los Angeles groundwater-study area. The recharge estimates for the Los Angeles groundwater-study area included spatially distributed recharge in response to the infiltration of precipitation, runoff, and urban irrigation, as well as mountain-front recharge from surface-water drainages bordering the groundwater-study area. The recharge and runoff estimates incorporated a new method for estimating urban irrigation, consisting of residential and commercial landscape watering, based on land use and the percentage of pervious land area. The LABWM used a 201.17-meter gridded discretization of the study area to represent spatially distributed climate and watershed characteristics affecting the surface and shallow sub-surface hydrology for the Los Angeles groundwater study area. Climate data from a local network of 201 monitoring sites and published maps of 30-year-average monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature were used to develop the climate inputs for the LABWM. Published maps of land use, land cover, soils, vegetation, and surficial geology were used to represent the physical characteristics of the LABWM area. The LABWM was calibrated to available streamflow records at six streamflow-gaging stations. Model results for a 100-year target-simulation period, from water years 1915 through 2014, were used to quantify and evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of water-budget components, including evapotranspiration (ET), recharge, and runoff. The largest outflow of water from the LABWM was ET; the 100-year average ET rate of 362 millimeters per year (mm/yr) accounted for 66 percent of the combined water inflow of 551 mm/yr, including 488 mm/yr from precipitation and 63 mm/yr from urban irrigation. The simulated ET rate varied from a minimum of 0 mm/yr for impervious areas to high values of more than 1,000 mm/yr for many areas, including the south-facing slopes of the San Gabriel Mountains, stream channels underlain by permeable soils and thick root zones, and pervious locations receiving inflows both from urban irrigation and surface water. Runoff was the next largest outflow, averaging 145 mm/yr for the 100-year period, or 26 percent of the combined precipitation and urban-irrigation inflow. Recharge averaged 45 mm/yr, or about 8 percent of the combined inflow from precipitation and urban irrigation. Simulation results indicated that recharge in response to urban irrigation was an important component of spatially distributed recharge, contributing an average of 56 percent of the total recharge to the eight LABWM subdomains containing the Los Angeles groundwater study area. The 100‑year average recharge rate for the eight subdomains was 41 mm/yr, or 8,473 hectare-meters per year (ha-m/yr), with urban irrigation included in the simulation compared to a recharge rate of 18 mm/yr, or 3,741 ha-m/yr, with urban irrigation excluded. In contrast to recharge, the effect of urban irrigation on runoff was slight; runoff was 72,667 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation included compared to 72,618 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation excluded, an increase of only 48 ha-m/yr (about 0.1 percent). Simulation results also indicated that potential recharge from hilly drainages outside of, but bordering and tributary to, the lower-lying area of the Los Angeles groundwater study area, in this study referred to as mountain-front recharge, could provide an important contribution to the total recharge for the groundwater basins. The time-averaged recharge rate was similar to the combined direct and mountain-front recharge components estimated in a previous study and used as input for a calibrated groundwater model. The annual (water year) recharge estimates simulated in this study, however, indicated much greater year-to-year variability, which was dependent on year-to-year variability in the magnitude and distribution of daily precipitation, compared to the previous estimates.

California↗
USGS1987

Magnitude and frequency of floods in rural and urban basins of North Carolina

The applicability of the nationwide urban flood relations in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain provinces is evaluated. Data for 254 gaging stations on rural streams with 10 or more years of record were used in multiple linear regression analyses with basin and climatic variables, to derive regional relations for estimating flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2- to 100-years. Rural relations are presented for three hydrologic areas: (1) Blue Ridge-Piedmont, (2) Coastal Plain, and (3) Sand Hills. Drainage area is the only basin characteristic in the relations. The average standard error of estimate of the relations for the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Coastal Plain, and Sand Hills hydrologic areas is 44, 39, and 24%, respectively. Flood discharges for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for the 254 streamflow stations used in the regionalization study are also presented. Flood frequency distributions of simulated annual maximum discharges for four urban basins in the Coastal Plain indicate that the nationwide relations are applicable in the province. The root mean squared error for the 10- and 100-year flood discharges, using the nationwide relations, is 44% and 49%, respectively. Simulated data for six sites in the Piedmont were used to analyze the applicability of the nationwide urban relations in the province. The root mean squared error is 64% for the 10-year flood and 42% for the 100-year flood. No recommendation is made concerning use of the nationwide relations in the Piedmont.

North Carolina↗