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USGS2016

Methods for exploring uncertainty in groundwater management predictions

Models of groundwater systems help to integrate knowledge about the natural and human system covering different spatial and temporal scales, often from multiple disciplines, in order to address a range of issues of concern to various stakeholders. A model is simply a tool to express what we think we know. Uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge or natural variability, means that there are always alternative models that may need to be considered. This chapter provides an overview of uncertainty in models and in the definition of a problem to model, highlights approaches to communicating and using predictions of uncertain outcomes and summarises commonly used methods to explore uncertainty in groundwater management predictions. It is intended to raise awareness of how alternative models and hence uncertainty can be explored in order to facilitate the integration of these techniques with groundwater management.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

Seismic calibration shots conducted in 2009 in the Imperial Valley, southern California, for the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP)

Rupture of the southern section of the San Andreas Fault, from the Coachella Valley to the Mojave Desert, is believed to be the greatest natural hazard facing California in the near future. With an estimated magnitude between 7.2 and 8.1, such an event would result in violent shaking, loss of life, and disruption of lifelines (freeways, aqueducts, power, petroleum, and communication lines) that would bring much of southern California to a standstill. As part of the Nation's efforts to prevent a catastrophe of this magnitude, a number of projects are underway to increase our knowledge of Earth processes in the area and to mitigate the effects of such an event. One such project is the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), which is a collaborative venture between the United States Geological Survey (USGS), California Institute of Technology (Caltech), and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech). This project will generate and record seismic waves that travel through the crust and upper mantle of the Salton Trough. With these data, we will construct seismic images of the subsurface, both reflection and tomographic images. These images will contribute to the earthquake-hazard assessment in southern California by helping to constrain fault locations, sedimentary basin thickness and geometry, and sedimentary seismic velocity distributions. Data acquisition is currently scheduled for winter and spring of 2011. The design and goals of SSIP resemble those of the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE) of the 1990's. LARSE focused on examining the San Andreas Fault system and associated thrust-fault systems of the Transverse Ranges. LARSE was successful in constraining the geometry of the San Andreas Fault at depth and in relating this geometry to mid-crustal, flower-structure-like decollements in the Transverse Ranges that splay upward into the network of hazardous thrust faults that caused the 1971 M 6.7 San Fernando and 1987 M 5.9 Whittier Narrows earthquakes. The project also succeeded in determining the depths and seismic-velocity distributions of several sedimentary basins, including the Los Angeles Basin, San Fernando Valley, and Antelope Valley. These results advanced our ability to understand and assess earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles region. In order to facilitate permitting and planning for the data collection phase of SSIP, in June of 2009 we set off calibration shots and recorded the seismic data with a variety of instruments at varying distances. We also exposed sections of buried clay drainage pipe near the shot points to determine the effect of seismic energy on the pipes. Clay drainage pipes are used by the irrigation districts in both the Coachella and Imperial Valleys to prevent ponding and remove salts and irrigation water. This report chronicles the calibration project. We present new near-source velocity data that are used to test the regression curves that were determined for the LARSE project. These curves are used to create setback tables to determine explosive charge size and for placement of shot points. We also found that our shots did not damage the irrigation pipes and that the ODEX drilling system did well in the clay rich soils of the Imperial Valley.

California↗
USGS2013

Borehole-explosion and air-gun data acquired in the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), southern California: description of the survey

The Imperial and Coachella Valleys are being formed by active plate-tectonic processes. From the Imperial Valley southward into the Gulf of California, plate motions are rifting the continent apart. In the Coachella Valley, the plates are sliding past one another along the San Andreas and related faults (fig. 1). These processes build the stunning landscapes of the region, but also produce damaging earthquakes. Rupture of the southern section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF), from the Coachella Valley to the Mojave Desert, is believed to be the greatest natural hazard that California will face in the near future. With an estimated magnitude between 7.2 and 8.1, such an event would result in violent shaking, loss of life, and disruption of infrastructure (freeways, aqueducts, power, petroleum, and communication lines) that might bring much of southern California to a standstill. As part of the nation’s efforts to avert a catastrophe of this magnitude, a number of projects have been undertaken to more fully understand and mitigate the effects of such an event. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), funded jointly by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), seeks to understand, through seismic imaging, the structure of the Earth surrounding the SAF, including the sedimentary basins on which cities are built. The principal investigators (PIs) of this collaborative project represent the USGS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), California Institute of Technology (Caltech), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scripps), University of Nevada, Reno (UNR), and Stanford University. SSIP will create images of underground structure and sediments in the Imperial and Coachella Valleys and adjacent mountain ranges to investigate the earthquake hazards posed to cities in this area. Importantly, the images will help determine the underground geometry of the SAF, how deep the sediments are, and how fast earthquake energy can travel through the sediments. All of these factors determine how hard the earth will shake during a major earthquake. If we can improve on our understanding of how and where earthquakes will occur, and how strong their resultant shaking will be, then buildings can be designed or retrofitted accordingly in order to resist damage and collapse, and emergency plans can be adequately prepared. In addition, SSIP will investigate the processes of rifting and magmatism in the Salton Trough in order to better understand this important plate-boundary region. The Salton Trough is a unique rift in that subsidence is accompanied by huge influxes of infilling sediment from the Colorado River. Volcanism that accompanies the subsidence here is muted by these influxes of sediment. The Salton Trough, in the central part of the Imperial Valley, is apparently made up of entirely new crust: young sediment in the upper crust and basaltic intrusive rocks in the mid-to-lower crust (Fuis and others, 1984). Similar to the ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) scans performed by the medical industry, seismic imaging is a collection of techniques that enable scientists to obtain a picture of what is underground. The petroleum industry routinely uses these techniques to search for oil and gas at relatively shallow depths; however, the scope of this project demanded that we image as much as 30 km into the Earth’s crust. This project generated and recorded seismic waves, similar to sound waves, which move downward into the Earth and are bent (refracted) or echoed (reflected) back to the surface. SSIP acquired data in a series of intersecting lines that cover key areas of the Salton Trough. The sources of sound waves were detonations (shots) in deep boreholes, designed to create energy equivalent to magnitude 1–2 earthquakes. The study region routinely experiences earthquakes of these magnitudes, but earthquakes are not located in such a way as to permit us to create the detailed images we need for earthquake hazard assessment. Air gun bursts, generated in the Salton Sea along extensions of our onshore seismic lines, also were utilized as sound-wave sources. Temporary deployments of portable land seismometers, as well as ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) on the floor of the Salton Sea, recorded the energy from the land shots and air gun bursts. SSIP is similar to the Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiments of 1994 and 1999 (LARSE I and II, respectively; Murphy and others, 1996; Fuis and others, 2001). The LARSE surveys demonstrated that the USGS and collaborators can safely and effectively conduct seismic imaging surveys in urban and nonurban areas, on lands owned and/or managed by many different types of agencies and entities. Information was produced that could not have been obtained any other way, and this information was key to changing the leading ideas about earthquake hazards at that time in the Los Angeles region. These surveys produced no significant environmental impact or damage to structures, and they did not trigger earthquakes.

California↗
USGS1985

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Report↗
USGS2011

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

Florida↗
USGS2023

A conceptual workflow for projecting future riverine and coastal flood hazards to support the federal flood risk management standard

In 2021, the reinstatement of the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) required federally funded projects to recognize potential increases in flood hazards over their service lives due to climate change or local anthropogenic perturbations. Recognizing that the state of the science had advanced since the implementation guidelines for this standard were published in 2015 (WRC, 2015, Appendix H), an interagency state-of-the-science review committee conceptualized a workflow to guide the mapping and risk communication of projected future flood hazards in both riverine and coastal settings. This five-element workflow connects climate, hydrologic, and hydraulic models, incorporates land and water management impacts and ongoing geomorphic changes, and can be tailored to the unique nature of different agency needs and resources. These conceptual workflows also provide a basis for a Climate-Informed Science Approach (CISA) implementation roadmap that identifies incremental steps for addressing the research and data gaps elucidated in our review. Many of these incremental steps present opportunities for interagency collaboration that would facilitate the rollout of the FFRMS in diverse riverine and coastal settings of the United States. We conduct case-study thought experiments to evaluate the implementation of the riverine and coastal workflows at three different locations in the United States: central Indiana, Galveston, Texas, and a small coastal community in western Alaska (Shaktoolik). Our thought experiments consider different project horizons, data availability, failure consequences, technical training requirements, and computational resources.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2017

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Review and development of ASABE Engineering Practice 621: “Guidelines for calibrating, validating, and evaluating hydrologic and water quality models”

In 2010, the Natural Resources and Environmental Systems Hydrology Committee (NRES-21) of ASABE initiated a long-term process to develop guidelines to improve modeling practice through better understanding of the calibration, validation, and evaluation process across applications and more effective interpretation and communication of model performance. This effort generated a compilation of 23 articles with model-specific descriptions and guidance (2012), a position paper outlining guidance for evaluating, interpreting, and communicating performance of hydrologic and water quality models considering intended use (2014), and a compilation of ten articles addressing key topics related to model calibration and validation (2015). In 2016, the first draft of ASABE Engineering Practice 621 (EP621), “Guidelines for Calibrating, Validating, and Evaluating Hydrologic and Water Quality (H/WQ) Models,” was developed, subsequently revised, and ultimately approved by the ASABE Standards Committee in 2017. EP621 provides guidelines, not prescriptive requirements, and as such recommends “good” modeling practices to enhance calibration, validation, evaluation, and communication of H/WQ models through establishment of consistent terminology; model selection; compilation and processing of input data and calibration, validation, and evaluation data; determination of model performance measures; model parameterization and calibration; re-examination of input and calibration data and/or consideration of model refinement; re-evaluation of model performance; and documentation of modeling process and results. EP621 can be obtained from the ASABE Technical Library at https://elibrary.asabe.org/abstract.asp?aid=47804. The objectives of this technical note are to review the process and rationale used to develop EP621 and to briefly summarize its major components.

Transactions of the ASABE↗
USGS2016

Stable isotope analyses of oxygen (18O:17O:16O) and chlorine (37Cl:35Cl) in perchlorate: reference materials, calibrations, methods, and interferences

Rationale Perchlorate (ClO 4 − ) is a common trace constituent of water, soils, and plants; it has both natural and synthetic sources and is subject to biodegradation. The stable isotope ratios of Cl and O provide three independent quantities for ClO 4 − source attribution and natural attenuation studies: δ 37 Cl, δ 18 O, and δ 17 O (or Δ 17 O or 17 Δ) values. Documented reference materials, calibration schemes, methods, and interferences will improve the reliability of such studies. Methods Three large batches of KClO 4 with contrasting isotopic compositions were synthesized and analyzed against VSMOW-SLAP, atmospheric O 2 , and international nitrate and chloride reference materials. Three analytical methods were tested for O isotopes: conversion of ClO 4 − to CO for continuous-flow IRMS (CO-CFIRMS), decomposition to O 2 for dual-inlet IRMS (O2-DIIRMS), and decomposition to O 2 with molecular-sieve trap (O2-DIIRMS+T). For Cl isotopes, KCl produced by thermal decomposition of KClO 4 was reprecipitated as AgCl and converted into CH 3 Cl for DIIRMS. Results KClO 4 isotopic reference materials (USGS37, USGS38, USGS39) represent a wide range of Cl and O isotopic compositions, including non-mass-dependent O isotopic variation. Isotopic fractionation and exchange can affect O isotope analyses of ClO 4 − depending on the decomposition method. Routine analyses can be adjusted for such effects by normalization, using reference materials prepared and analyzed as samples. Analytical errors caused by SO 4 2 − , NO 3 − , ReO 4 2 − , and C-bearing contaminants include isotope mixing and fractionation effects on CO and O 2 , plus direct interference from CO 2 in the mass spectrometer. The results highlight the importance of effective purification of ClO 4 − from environmental samples. Conclusions KClO 4 reference materials are available for testing methods and calibrating isotopic data for ClO 4 − and other substances with widely varying Cl or O isotopic compositions. Current ClO 4 − extraction, purification, and analysis techniques provide relative isotope-ratio measurements with uncertainties much smaller than the range of values in environmental ClO 4 − , permitting isotopic evaluation of environmental ClO 4 − sources and natural attenuation.

Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry↗
USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗
USGS2022

Navigating the space between policy and practice: Toward a typology of collaborators in a federal land management agency

Navigating the space between policy and on-the-ground natural resource management presents unique challenges. We interviewed 22 U.S. Bureau of Land Management Field Office Managers to understand their perceptions toward, and applications of, collaboration with public and private stakeholders. Interviews were transcribed and open-coded using qualitative data analysis software. Then, each interview was represented visually using the MaxQDA MaxMaps feature. We deductively coded each visual model and created a typology based on a mix of salient traits exhibited by each group. Differences emerged in each group’s approach to teaching and learning; communication style; attitude toward collaboration; attention to relational and substantive outcomes; and the ability to create space within the agency mission to achieve mutually beneficial goals. Findings can help agencies navigate the challenges associated with aligning agency directives with on-the-ground realities in different contexts when collaborators exhibit different traits.

Society and Natural Resources↗
USGS2005

Surface gamma-ray survey of the Barre West quadrangle, Washington and Orange Counties, Vermont

This study was designed to determine the levels of naturally occurring radioactivity in bedrock from surface measurements at outcrops during the course of 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and to determine which rock types were potential sources of radionuclides. Elevated levels of total alpha particle radiation (gross alpha) occur in a public water system in Montpelier, Vermont. Measured gross alpha levels in the Murray Hill water system (Vermont Dept. of Environmental Conservation, unpub. data, 2005) have exceeded the maximum contaminant level of 15 picocuries per liter (pCi/l) set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (EPA, 2000). The Murray Hill system began treatment for radium in 1999. Although this treatment was successful, annual monitoring for gross alpha, radium, and uranium continues as required (Jon Kim, written communication, 2005). The water system utilizes a drilled bedrock well located in the Silurian-Devonian Waits River Formation. Kim (2002) summarized radioactivity data for Vermont, and aside from a statewide assessment of radon in public water systems (Manning and Ladue, 1986) and a single flight line from the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) (Texas Instruments, 1976) (fig. 1), no data are available to identify the potential sources of naturally occurring radioactivity in the local bedrock. Airborne gamma-ray surveys are typically used for large areas (Duval, 2001, 2002), and ground-based surveys are more commonly used for local site assessments. For example, ground-based surveys have been used for fault mapping (Iwata and others, 2001), soil mapping (Roberts and others, 2003), environmental assessments (Stromswold and Arthur, 1996), and mineral exploration (Jubeli and others, 1998). Duval (1980) summarized the methods and applications of gamma- ray spectrometry. In this study, we present the results from a ground-based gamma-ray survey of bedrock outcrops in the 7.5-minute Barre West quadrangle, Vermont. Other related and ongoing studies in the area are addressing potential mineral sources of radionuclides (Satkoski and Walsh, 2004; Satkoski and others, 2005), radionuclides in ground water (Kim and others, 2005), and bedrock geology.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Rainfall an unlikely trigger of Kilauea’s 2018 rift eruption

If volcanic eruptions could be forecast from the occurrence of some external process, it might be possible to better mitigate risk and protect lives and livelihoods. Farquharson and Amelung 1 suggested that the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano—the most destructive eruption in Hawai‘i in at least 200 years 2 —was triggered by extreme precipitation, which caused increased pore pressure that resulted in mechanical weakening of the volcano. Here we argue that Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption was instead caused by significant pre-eruptive pressurization, that pre-eruptive rainfall was not extreme, and that there is no significant correlation between rain and eruptions at Kīlauea. Understanding the causal mechanisms of volcanic eruptions is vital for hazard assessment and mitigation, and misattribution may compromise monitoring, preparedness, communication and response efforts.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-systems approaches is the representation of systems in a multi-tier framework with nested scales. Current modeling paradigms, however, have disciplinary-specific lineage, leading to inconsistencies in the conceptualization and integration of socio-environmental systems. In this paper, a multidisciplinary team of researchers, from engineering, natural and social sciences, have come together to detail socio-technical practices and challenges that arise in the consideration of scale throughout the socio-environmental modeling process. We identify key paths forward, focused on explicit consideration of scale and uncertainty, strengthening interdisciplinary communication, and improvement of the documentation process. We call for a grand vision (and commensurate funding) for holistic system-of-systems research that engages researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers in a multi-tiered process for the co-creation of knowledge and solutions to major socio-environmental problems.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2019

Employing an ecosystem services framework to deliver decision ready science

Public land managers have limited information to allow for the integration and balancing of multiple objectives in land management decisions including the social (cultural and health), economic (monetary and nonmonetary), and environmental aspects. In this article, we document an approach to consider the many facets of decision making by incorporating them into a decision context using an ecosystem services framework. This analysis is based on a multi-partner project led by the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service to provide land management decision support for the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. It is an integrated ecologic-economic analysis of baseline (current) and potential future quantities, qualities, and values of selected ecosystem services from the Refuge. Alternative management scenarios are modeled to consider the impact of specific management actions or natural disturbances on priority ecosystem services. We examine the benefits and challenges of using this framework. Key lessons learned from this effort include the mismatch in timing between physical and social science; the challenge of integrating methods from multiple disciplines; the importance of frequent communication to overcome siloed research; and the utility of an integrating framework for ecosystem services and supporting tools such as the dynamic ecosystem model.

Advances in Ecological Research↗
USGS2012

USGS Environmental health science strategy: providing environmental health science for a changing world: Public review release

America has an abundance of natural resources. We have bountiful clean water, fertile soil, and unrivaled national parks, wildlife refuges, and public lands. These resources enrich our lives and preserve our health and wellbeing. These resources have been maintained because of our history of respect for their value and an enduring commitment to their vigilant protection. Awareness of the social, economic, and personal value of the health of our environment is increasing. The emergence of environmentally driven diseases caused by environmental exposure to contaminants and pathogens is a growing concern worldwide. New health threats and patterns of established threats are affected by both natural and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Human activities are key drivers of emerging (new and re-emerging) health threats. Societal demands for land and natural resources, a better quality of life, improved economic prosperity, and the environmental impacts associated with these demands will continue to increase. Natural earth processes, climate trends, and related climatic events will add to the environmental impact of human activities. These environmental drivers will influence exposure to disease agents, including viral, bacterial, prion, and fungal pathogens, parasites, natural earth materials, toxins and other biogenic compounds, and synthetic chemicals and substances. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) defines environmental health science broadly as the interdisciplinary study of relations among the quality of the physical environment, the health of the living environment, and human health. The interactions among these three spheres are driven by human activities, ecological processes, and natural earth processes; the interactions affect exposure to contaminants and pathogens and the severity of environmentally driven diseases in animals and people. This definition provides USGS with a framework for synthesizing natural science information from across the Bureau and providing it to environmental, natural resource, agricultural, and public-health managers. The USGS is a Federal science agency with a broad range of natural science expertise relevant to environmental health. USGS provides scientific information and tools as a scientific basis for management and policy decision making. USGS specializes in science at the environment-health interface, by characterizing the processes that affect the interaction among the physical environment, the living environment, and people, and the resulting factors that affect ecological and human exposure to disease agents. This report describes a 10-year strategy that encompasses the portfolio of USGS environmental health science. It summarizes national environmental health priorities that USGS is best suited to address, and will serve as a strategic framework for USGS environmental health science goals, actions, and outcomes for the next decade. Implementation of this strategy is intended to aid coordination of USGS environmental health activities and to provide a focal point for disseminating information to stakeholders. The "One Health" paradigm advocated by the World Health Organization (WHO, 2011), and the American Veterinary Medicine Association (AVMA, 2008), among others, is based on a general recognition that the health of humans, animals, and the environment are inextricably linked. Thus, successful efforts to protect that health will require increased interdisciplinary research and increased communication and collaboration among the broader scientific and health community. This strategy is built upon that paradigm. The vision, mission, and five cornerstone goals of the USGS Environmental Health Science Strategy were developed with significant input from a wide range of stakeholders. Vision - The USGS is a premier source of the environmental health science needed to safeguard the health of the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. Mission - The mission of USGS in environmental health science is to contribute scientific information to environmental, natural resource, agricultural, and public-health managers, who use that science to support sound decision making. USGS provides the science to: - Goal 1: Identify, prioritize, and detect contaminants and pathogens of emerging environmental concern. - Goal 2: Reduce the impact of contaminants on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Goal 3: Reduce the impact of pathogens on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Goal 4: Discover the complex interactions and combined effects of exposure to contaminants and pathogens. - Goal 5: Prepare for and respond to environmental impacts and related health threats of natural and anthropogenic disasters. Goals 1 through 4 are intended to provide science to address environmental health threats in a logical order, from informing prevention and preparedness, to supporting systematic management response to environmental health issues. Goal 4 addresses the interaction among contaminants and pathogens, an issue of emerging concern in environmental health science. Goal 5 acknowledges the fact that natural and anthropogenic disasters can cause immediate and prolonged adverse environmental health threats. This strategy proposes that USGS take the following strategic science actions to achieve each of the five goals of this strategy: Goal 1: Identify, prioritize, and detect contaminants and pathogens of emerging environmental concern. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Prioritize contaminants and pathogens of emerging concern to guide research, detection, and management activities. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Conduct surveillance and monitoring to provide early warning of emerging health threats. - Strategic Science Action 3. - Develop approaches and tools that identify vulnerable environmental settings, ecosystems, and species. Goal 2: Reduce the impact of contaminants on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Systematically characterize the sources, occurrence, transport and fate of environmental contaminants to guide efforts to manage and mitigate contamination. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Evaluate the threats of contamination on the health of the environment, fish, wildlife, and people, and inform the associated management and protection efforts. - Strategic Science Action 3. - Characterize potential human exposure to support establishment of health-based standards or guidelines and contamination-reduction efforts. Goal 3: Reduce the impact of pathogens on the environment, fish, wildlife, and people. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Determine the biotic and abiotic factors that control the ecology of infectious diseases affecting natural populations of aquatic and terrestrial species and potential transmission to other animals and humans. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Establish how natural and anthropogenic environmental changes affect the distribution and severity of infectious diseases in natural populations of aquatic and terrestrial species and potential transmission to other animals and humans. - Strategic Science Action 3. - Develop surveillance systems to identify changing patterns of disease activity in priority geographic areas. Goal 4: Discover the complex interactions and combined effects of exposure to contaminants and pathogens. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Identify how exposure to one class of disease agents (contaminants or pathogens) can make an organism more susceptible to effects from exposure to the other class of disease agents. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Implement interdisciplinary studies that characterize the effects of combined exposure to pathogens and contaminants. Goal 5: Prepare for and respond to the environmental impacts and related health threats of natural and anthropogenic disasters. - Strategic Science Action 1. - Establish a formal interdisciplinary science capability to rapidly assess the environmental health risks associated with disasters. - Strategic Science Action 2. - Enhance methods to anticipate, prepare for, and identify environmental, ecological, and related health impacts of future disasters. This strategy is one of seven USGS science strategies developed concurrently: - Climate and Land Use Change - Core Science Systems - Ecosystems - Energy and Mineral Resources - Environmental Health - Natural Hazards - Water. This strategy describes how USGS will address the highest priority environmental health issues facing the Nation. The ultimate intended outcome of this science strategy is prevention and reduction of adverse impacts to the quality of the environment, the health of our living resources, and human health. Communication with, and receiving input from, partners and stakeholders regarding their science needs is essential for successful implementation of this strategy. It is incumbent on USGS to reach out to all stakeholders to ensure that USGS efforts are focused on the highest priority environmental health issues and that products are provided in the most timely and usable form to all those who can use them. USGS must reach out to the scientific community, internally and externally, to ensure that our efforts are integrated with and take full advantage of the activities of others.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative strategic plan 2015 - 2025

The Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NWB LCC) is a voluntary, diverse, self-directed management-science partnership, informing and promoting integrated science, sustainable natural and cultural resource management, and conservation to address impacts of climate change and other stressors within and across ecosystems. The NWB LCC area includes parts of Alaska, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and British Columbia. Our partnership reflects both the broad geographic scope and an extensive array of active and engaged participants including resource management organizations, government representatives, policy makers, Tribes and First Nations, industry leaders, researchers, non-governmental organizations, and research/education institutions. Bringing together diverse partners will help assure the northwest boreal is a functioning, sustainable landscape. We live in an era of profound conservation challenges, including the loss and fragmentation of habitats, genetic isolation, invasive species, and unnatural wildfire. The effects of rapidly changing climate are already evident on the landscape. In these circumstances, it is imperative that natural resource management agencies, science providers, Tribes, First Nations, conservation organizations, and other stakeholders work together to understand the drivers and impacts of landscape change and to determine how best to address those challenges. Further, it is essential that the public and communities receive clear communication about the vision and activities of the NWB LCC. Open public access to NWB LCC activities and products will promote acceptance and support of the science that guides potential changes in management action and conservation strategy. This strategic plan provides a great opportunity for the NWB LCC to share our approach and intentions to the LCC members, collaborators, communities, and the public at large.

Report↗
USGS2017

Visitor spending effects: assessing and showcasing America's investment in national parks

This paper provides an overview of the evolution, future, and global applicability of the U.S. National Park Service's (NPS) visitor spending effects framework and discusses the methods used to effectively communicate the economic return on investment in America's national parks. The 417 parks represent many of America's most iconic destinations: in 2016, they received a record 331 million visits. Competing federal budgetary demands necessitate that, in addition to meeting their mission to preserve unimpaired natural and cultural resources for the enjoyment of the people, parks also assess and showcase their contributions to the economic vitality of their regions and the nation. Key approaches explained include the original Money Generation Model (MGM) from 1990, MGM2 used from 2001, and the visitor spending effects model which replaced MGM2 in 2012. Detailed discussion explains the NPS's visitor use statistics system, the formal program for collecting, compiling, and reporting visitor use data. The NPS is now establishing a formal socioeconomic monitoring (SEM) program to provide a standard visitor survey instrument and a long-term, systematic sampling design for in-park visitor surveys. The pilot SEM survey is discussed, along with the need for international standardization of research methods.

Journal of Sustainable Tourism↗