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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Mineral deposit densities for estimating mineral resources

Estimates of numbers of mineral deposits are fundamental to assessing undiscovered mineral resources. Just as frequencies of grades and tonnages of well-explored deposits can be used to represent the grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits, the density of deposits (deposits/area) in well-explored control areas can serve to represent the number of deposits. Empirical evidence presented here indicates that the processes affecting the number and quantity of resources in geological settings are very general across many types of mineral deposits. For podiform chromite, porphyry copper, and volcanogenic massive sulfide deposit types, the size of tract that geologically could contain the deposits is an excellent predictor of the total number of deposits. The number of mineral deposits is also proportional to the type’s size. The total amount of mineralized rock is also proportional to size of the permissive area and the median deposit type’s size. Regressions using these variables provide a means to estimate the density of deposits and the total amount of mineralization. These powerful estimators are based on analysis of ten different types of mineral deposits (Climax Mo, Cuban Mn, Cyprus massive sulfide, Franciscan Mn, kuroko massive sulfide, low-sulfide quartz-Au vein, placer Au, podiform Cr, porphyry Cu, and W vein) from 108 permissive control tracts around the world therefore generalizing across deposit types. Despite the diverse and complex geological settings of deposit types studied here, the relationships observed indicate universal controls on the accumulation and preservation of mineral resources that operate across all scales. The strength of the relationships ( R 2 =0.91 for density and 0.95 for mineralized rock) argues for their broad use. Deposit densities can now be used to provide a guideline for expert judgment or used directly for estimating the number of most kinds of mineral deposits.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2008

Using sequential self-calibration method to identify conductivity distribution: Conditioning on tracer test data

An iterative inverse method, the sequential self-calibration method, is developed for mapping spatial distribution of a hydraulic conductivity field by conditioning on nonreactive tracer breakthrough curves. A streamline-based, semi-analytical simulator is adopted to simulate solute transport in a heterogeneous aquifer. The simulation is used as the forward modeling step. In this study, the hydraulic conductivity is assumed to be a deterministic or random variable. Within the framework of the streamline-based simulator, the efficient semi-analytical method is used to calculate sensitivity coefficients of the solute concentration with respect to the hydraulic conductivity variation. The calculated sensitivities account for spatial correlations between the solute concentration and parameters. The performance of the inverse method is assessed by two synthetic tracer tests conducted in an aquifer with a distinct spatial pattern of heterogeneity. The study results indicate that the developed iterative inverse method is able to identify and reproduce the large-scale heterogeneity pattern of the aquifer given appropriate observation wells in these synthetic cases. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2008.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2010

Generalized bootstrap method for assessment of uncertainty in semivariogram inference

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2010

Aggregation methodology for the circum-arctic resource appraisal

This paper presents a methodology that intends to aggregate the results of a recent assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources of the Arctic by the U.S. Geological Survey. The assessment occurred in 48 geologically defined regions called assessment units. The methodology includes using assessor specified pair-wise correlations as the basis to construct a correlation matrix. Sampling from this matrix generates more realistic uncertainty estimates of aggregated resources than if assumptions of total independence or total dependence are made. The latter two assumptions result in overly narrow or overly broad estimates. Aggregation results for resources in regions north of the Arctic Circle are presented.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2011

Comparison of two methods used to model shape parameters of Pareto distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2013

Time-lapse analysis of methane quantity in Mary Lee group of coal seams using filter-based multiple-point geostatistical simulation

Coal seam degasification and its success are important for controlling methane, and thus for the health and safety of coal miners. During the course of degasification, properties of coal seams change. Thus, the changes in coal reservoir conditions and in-place gas content as well as methane emission potential into mines should be evaluated by examining time-dependent changes and the presence of major heterogeneities and geological discontinuities in the field. In this work, time-lapsed reservoir and fluid storage properties of the New Castle coal seam, Mary Lee/Blue Creek seam, and Jagger seam of Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, were determined from gas and water production history matching and production forecasting of vertical degasification wellbores. These properties were combined with isotherm and other important data to compute gas-in-place (GIP) and its change with time at borehole locations. Time-lapsed training images (TIs) of GIP and GIP difference corresponding to each coal and date were generated by using these point-wise data and Voronoi decomposition on the TI grid, which included faults as discontinuities for expansion of Voronoi regions. Filter-based multiple-point geostatistical simulations, which were preferred in this study due to anisotropies and discontinuities in the area, were used to predict time-lapsed GIP distributions within the study area. Performed simulations were used for mapping spatial time-lapsed methane quantities as well as their uncertainties within the study area. The systematic approach presented in this paper is the first time in literature that history matching, TIs of GIPs and filter simulations are used for degasification performance evaluation and for assessing GIP for mining safety. Results from this study showed that using production history matching of coalbed methane wells to determine time-lapsed reservoir data could be used to compute spatial GIP and representative GIP TIs generated through Voronoi decomposition. Furthermore, performing filter simulations using point-wise data and TIs could be used to predict methane quantity in coal seams subjected to degasification. During the course of the study, it was shown that the material balance of gas produced by wellbores and the GIP reductions in coal seams predicted using filter simulations compared very well, showing the success of filter simulations for continuous variables in this case study. Quantitative results from filter simulations of GIP within the studied area briefly showed that GIP was reduced from an initial ∼73 Bcf (median) to ∼46 Bcf (2011), representing a 37 % decrease and varying spatially through degasification. It is forecasted that there will be an additional ∼2 Bcf reduction in methane quantity between 2011 and 2015. This study and presented results showed that the applied methodology and utilized techniques can be used to map GIP and its change within coal seams after degasification, which can further be used for ventilation design for methane control in coal mines.

Alabama↗
USGS2018

Accurate ocean bottom seismometer positioning method inspired by multilateration technique

The positioning of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) is a key step in the processing flow of OBS data, especially in the case of self popup types of OBS instruments. The use of first arrivals from airgun shots, rather than relying on the acoustic transponders mounted in the OBS, is becoming a trend and generally leads to more accurate positioning due to the statistics from a large number of shots. In this paper, a linearization of the OBS positioning problem via the multilateration technique is discussed. The discussed linear solution solves jointly for the average water layer velocity and the OBS position using only shot locations and first arrival times as input data.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2018

Compositional data analysis of coal combustion products with an application to a Wyoming power plant

A mathematically sound approach for summarizing chemical analyses of feed coal and all its combustion products (bottom ash, economizer fly ash, and fly ash) is presented. The nature of the data requires the application of compositional techniques when conducting statistical analysis, techniques that have not been applied before to the study of partitioning of elements between the coal that enters the boiler and the associated coal combustion products. A collection of descriptive and inferential compositional techniques was used to analyze the coal combustion products from a Wyoming power plant burning Paleocene Wyodak–Anderson coal. The significance of the fluctuation in ash composition is determined by using a Hotelling’s T -squared test and bootstrapping. Tree displays allow for visualization of the progressive effect of filters in removal of chemical species based on their geochemical composition. Results indicate that, in general, as the suspended combustion products entrained in the flue gases move closer to the stack, chemical species are removed from the combustion gas, starting with minerals associated with elements having the lowest volatility.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2021

Implications of aggregating and smoothing daily production data on estimates of the transition time between flow regimes in horizontal hydraulically fractured Bakken oil wells

The level to which data are aggregated or smoothed can impact analytical and predictive modeling results. This paper discusses findings regarding such impacts on estimating change points in production flow regimes of horizontal hydraulically fractured shale oil wells producing from the middle member of the Bakken Formation. Change points that signal transitions in flow regimes are important because they subsequently affect estimates of ultimate recovery from wells producing from shale plays. Extending our earlier work, we employ two different statistical approaches, Bacon–Watts Bayesian regression and nonlinear constrained least squares regression, and a designed computational experiment to estimate the time of transition from the transient to the boundary-dominated flow regime for 14 different wells using daily production data rather than aggregated monthly data, as previously considered. The daily data were also smoothed to reduce noise. Computational experiments suggest that both statistical approaches can lead to plausible estimates of the transition point under different data aggregation or smoothing regimes, but that daily data are likely too granular to produce credible estimates. Although the expected value of transition points using smoothed daily data and monthly disaggregated data are generally comparable, the confidence intervals bounding the estimates based on smoothed daily data are generally wider. Our results not only inform the operational practices of oil producers engaged in economic evaluation of their shale resources and additional play development activities, but also the activities of petroleum research groups, government agencies, and financial organizations seeking to improve the trustworthiness of resource projections.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2021

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to unmixing detrital geochronologic data

Sedimentary deposits constitute the primary record of changing environmental conditions that have acted on Earth’s surface over geologic time. Clastic material is eroded from source locations (parents) in sediment routing systems and deposited at sink locations (children). Both parents and children have characteristics that vary across many different dimensions, including grain size, chemical composition, and the geochronologic age of constituent detrital minerals. During transport, sediment from different parents is mixed together to form a child, which in turn may serve as the parent for other sediment farther down-system or later in time when buried sediment is exhumed. The distribution of detrital mineral ages observed in parent and child sediments allows for investigation of the proportion of each parent in the child sediment, which reflects the properties of the sediment routing system. To model the proportion of dates in a child sample that comes from each of the parent distributions, we use a Bayesian mixture of Dirichlet processes. This model enables us to estimate the mixing proportions with associated uncertainty while making minimal assumptions. We also present an extension to the model whereby we reconstruct unobserved parent distributions from multiple observed child distributions using mixtures of Dirichlet processes. The model accounts for uncertainty in both the number of mineral formation events that constitute each parent distribution and the mixing proportions of each parent distribution that constitutes a child distribution. To demonstrate the model, we perform analyses using simulated data where the true age distribution is known as well as using a real-world case study from the coast of central California, USA.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2026

Uncertainty quantification of geologic energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs using material balance equations embedded in a hierarchical errors-in-variables model

The storage potential for gas in geologic settings, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and solution-mined salt caverns, is becoming salient to future energy infrastructure planning. Technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery, and natural gas and hydrogen storage help meet growing energy demands, reduce carbon emissions to meet climate goals, and provide energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties. Therefore, estimates of underground gas storage capacity could be useful for efficiently navigating the energy transitions. Material balance is a fundamental method in reservoir engineering for estimating original gas in place and potential storage capacity at the scale necessary for national assessments of subsurface pore space resources. However, the deterministic method cannot accommodate multiple data sources or quantify uncertainty in predictions. In this study, a method that embeds material balance equations within a hierarchical errors-in-variables model is proposed which allows the estimation of the distributions of reservoir properties needed for assessments. Uncertainties associated with these reservoir properties have traditionally been expert-elicited, whereas the uncertainty estimates from the proposed models are data-driven. Capacity and uncertainty estimates can be used in a probabilistic resource assessment, supplementing information traditionally used by assessors or even replacing this expert elicitation step when data are unavailable. Various regression models are compared in a case study of the Michigan Basin, a large contributor to the United States’ current natural gas storage capacity. In particular, errors-in-variables models help ameliorate regression dilution and can quantify uncertainty in predictions of pressure in addition to storage capacity. Overfitting is addressed by quantifying generalization error and model averaging in simple and stratified cross-validation against reported working gas capacity, representing the varying quality and quantity of available data. Incorporating a statistical framework into existing numerical methods in reservoir engineering can improve the quality of estimation, and in particular, this method brings rigor to uncertainty quantification as part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess domestic energy gas storage resources in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2008

What was the groundwater quality before mining in a mineralized region? Lessons from the Questa Project

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Environment Department and supported by Molycorp, Inc (currently Chevron Minerals), has completed a 5-year investigation (2001-2006) to determine the pre-mining ground-water quality at Molycorp's Questa molybdenum mine in northern New Mexico. Current mine-site ground waters are often contaminated with mine-waste leachates and no data exists on premining ground-water quality so that pre-mining conditions must be inferred. Ground-water quality undisturbed by mining is often worse than New Mexico standards and data are needed to help establish closure requirements. The key to determining pre-mining conditions was to study the hydrogeochemistry of a proximal natural analog site, the Straight Creek catchment. Main rock types exposed to weathering include a Tertiary andesite and the Tertiary Amalia tuff (rhyolitic composition), both hydrothermally altered to various degrees. Two types of ground water are common in mineralized areas, acidic ground waters in alluvial debris fans with pH 3-4 and bedrock ground waters with pH 6-8. Siderite, ferrihydrite, rhodochrosite, amorphous to microcrystalline Al(OH)3, calcite, gypsum, barite, and amorphous silica mineral solubilities control concentrations of Fe(II), Fe(III), Mn(II), Al, Ca, Ba, and SiO2, depending on pH and solution composition. Concentrations at low pH are governed by element abundance and mineral weathering rates. Concentrations of Zn and Cd range from detection up to about 10 and 0.05 mg/L, respectively, and are derived primarily from sphalerite dissolution. Concentrations of Ni and Co range from detection up to 1 and 0.4 mg/L, respectively, and are derived primarily from pyrite dissolution. Concentrations of Ca and SO4 are derived from secondary gypsum dissolution and weathering of calcite and pyrite. Metal:sulfate concentration ratios are relatively constant for acidic waters, suggesting consistent weathering rates, independent of catchment. These trends, combined with lithology, mineralogy, and mineral solubility controls, provide useful constraints on pre-mining ground-water quality for the mine site where the lithology is known.

Geosciences Journal↗
USGS2010

Programed oil generation of the Zubair Formation, Southern Iraq oil fields: Results from Petromod software modeling and geochemical analysis

1D petroleum system modeling was performed on wells in each of four oil fields in South Iraq, Zubair (well Zb-47), Nahr Umr (well NR-9), West Qurna (well WQ-15 and 23), and Majnoon (well Mj-8). In each of these fields, deposition of the Zubair Formation was followed by continuous burial, reaching maximum temperatures of 100°C (equivalent to 0.70%Ro) at depths of 3,344–3,750 m of well Zb-47 and 3,081.5–3,420 m of well WQ-15, 120°C (equivalent to 0.78%Ro) at depths of 3,353–3,645 m of well NR-9, and 3,391–3,691.5 m of well Mj-8. Generation of petroleum in the Zubair Formation began in the late Tertiary, 10 million years ago. At present day, modeled transformation ratios (TR) indicate that 65% TR of its generation potential has been reached in well Zb-47, 75% TR in well NR-9 and 55-85% TR in West Qurna oil field (wells WQ-15 and WQ-23) and up to 95% TR in well Mj-8, In contrast, younger source rocks are immature to early mature (<20% TR), whereas older source rocks are mature to overmature (100% TR). Comparison of these basin modeling results, in Basrah region, are performed with Kifle oil field in Hilla region of western Euphrates River whereas the Zubair Formation is immature within temperature range of 65–70°C (0.50%Ro equivalent) with up to 12% (TR = 12%) hydrocarbon generation efficiency and hence poor generation could be assessed in this last location. The Zubair Formation was deposited in a deltaic environment and consists of interbedded shales and porous and permeable sandstones. In Basrah region, the shales have total organic carbon of 0.5–7.0 wt%, Tmax 430–470°C and hydrogen indices of up to 466 with S2 = 0.4–9.4 of kerogen type II & III and petroleum potential of 0.4–9.98 of good hydrocarbon generation, which is consistent with 55–95% hydrocarbon efficiency. These generated hydrocarbons had charged (in part) the Cretaceous and Tertiary reservoirs, especially the Zubair Formation itself, in the traps formed by Alpine collision that closed the Tethys Ocean between Arabian and Euracian Plates and developed folds in Mesopotamian Basin 15–10 million years ago. These traps are mainly stratigraphic facies of sandstones with the shale that formed during the deposition of the Zubair Formation in transgression and regression phases within the main structural folds of the Zubair, Nahr Umr, West Qurna and Majnoon Oil fields. Oil biomarkers of the Zubair Formation Reservoirs are showing source affinity with mixed oil from the Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous strata, including Zubair Formation organic matters, based on presentation of GC and GC-MS results on diagrams of global petroleum systems.

Arabian Journal of Geosciences↗
USGS2024

Hypothetical CO2 leakage into, and hydrological plume management within, an underground source of drinking water at a proposed CO2 storage facility, Kemper County, Mississippi, USA

A large Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS) hub has been proposed in Kemper County, Mississippi. The target injection interval consists of numerous Cretaceous-aged deep saline aquifers overlain by a competent and extensive regional sealing layer. Above the seal, the deepest Underground Source of Drinking Water (USDW) at the site is the Eutaw aquifer of the Eutaw Group and McShan Formation, undifferentiated. To assess potential risks of leakage from the deep sequestration reservoir, a model of a portion of the Cretaceous Eutaw Group was constructed in this study. Simulations tested various permeabilities, hypothetical leakage rates, and plume mitigation strategies utilizing existing wells. Results suggest that, under the influence of regional groundwater flow fields, leaking CO 2 would effectively bypass the existing wells, and to influence this migration would require very large water extraction rates. Therefore, to ensure plume detection, monitoring for leakage at the injection wells themselves is very important.

Mississippi↗
USGS2018

Late Holocene paleoceanography in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Arctic Ocean, based on benthic foraminifera and ostracodes

Calcareous microfossil assemblages in late Holocene sediments from the western Arctic continental shelf provide an important baseline for evaluating the impacts of today’s changing Arctic oceanography. This study compares 14 C-dated late Holocene microfaunal assemblages of sediment cores SWERUS-L2-2-PC1, 2-MC4 and 2-KL1 (57 mwd), which record the last 4200 years in the Herald Canyon (Chukchi Sea shelf), and HLY1302-JPC-32, GGC-30, MC-29 (60 mwd), which record the last 3000 years in the Beaufort Sea shelf off the coast of Canada. Foraminiferal and ostracode assemblages are typical of Arctic continental shelf environments with annual sea-ice cover and show relatively small changes in terms of variability of dominant species. Important microfaunal changes in the Beaufort site include a spike in Spiroplectammina biformis coinciding with a decrease in Cassidulina reniforme in the last few centuries suggesting an increase of Pacific Water influence and decreased sea-ice. There is low-amplitude centennial-scale variability in proportions of benthic foraminiferal species, such as C. reniforme . In addition to these species, Cassidulina teretis s.l., Elphidium excavatum clavatum and Stainforthia feylingi are also common at this site. At the Herald Canyon site in the last few centuries, C. reniforme peaks around 150 years BP and then decreases while Spiroplectammina earlandi spikes and Acanthocythereis dunelmensis decreases also suggesting an increase in Pacific Water influence and decreased sea-ice at this site. This site also includes Buccella spp. and Elphidium excavatum clavatum . Differences in benthic foraminifera and ostracode species dominance between the two sites may be due to a greater influence of Pacific Water in the Chukchi shelf, compared to the more distal Beaufort shelf, which is also affected by the Beaufort Gyre and the Mackenzie River.

Arctic Ocean, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea↗
USGS1976

Q-mode factor analysis of compositional data

An extended form of the method of Q-mode factor analysis may be used if the rows of the data matrix sum to a constant. The constant row-sum provides a means for scaling the factor model to conform to the units of the original data in such forms as proportions, percentages, or parts per million. The scale factors for an m-factor model are used to derive composition scores and loadings, which lead to the same reproduced data regardless of the choice of reference axes (end-members). Factor-variance diagrams may be constructed to show the proportion of the variance that will be accounted for in each compositional variable by models containing various numbers of end-members. The method may be used to develop a petrologic mixing model by searching for end-members that are geologically plausible. ?? 1976.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS1976

Extended cabfac and Qmodel computer programs for Q-mode factor analysis of compositional data

The computer program CABFAC for Q-mode factor analysis of geologic data has been extended for use with data having constant row-sums. Another program, QMODEL, reads an output file from CABFAC and can be used to develop a variety of Q-mode models. The models serve to reproduce estimates of the original data rather than of the data in normalized form. ?? 1976.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS1976

A method and fortran program for quantitative sampling in paleontology

The Unit Sampling Method is a binomial sampling method applicable to the study of fauna preserved in rocks too well cemented to be disaggregated. Preliminary estimates of the probability of detecting each group in a single sampling unit can be converted to estimates of the group's volumetric abundance by means of correction curves obtained by a computer simulation technique. This paper describes the technique and gives the FORTRAN program. ?? 1976.

Computers & Geosciences↗