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USGS2026

How to accelerate advances in ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting offers critical insights for managing natural resources and safeguarding public well-being. Despite growing demand for these forecasts, progress is hindered by fragmented systems, redundant workflows, and limited interoperability. Drawing lessons from weather forecasting and recent successes like the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge, shared cyberinfrastructure is important for advancing ecological prediction. By adopting common standards, open-source tools, and scalable architectures, and fostering transdisciplinary collaboration, the ecological forecasting community can overcome technical and institutional barriers. Such investments could accelerate scientific understanding, improve forecast reliability, and empower decisionmakers to anticipate environmental change and respond effectively.

Eos, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2026

A review and synthesis of post-wildfire shifts in hydrologic processes and streamflow generation mechanisms

Critical water supply watersheds in the western United States (WUS) are impacted by wildfires, with potential negative effects on water quality and quantity. Scientific understanding is currently insufficient to deliver estimates of wildfire consequences for water quantity that are regionally accurate. Regional variability in the directionality and magnitude of post-wildfire shifts in streamflow generation fuels uncertainty in estimates of wildfire effects on water supply. In this work we provide a narrative review of wildfire effects on hydrologic processes and the resulting changes in streamflow generation mechanisms with a focus on the WUS, incorporating other global regions when pertinent. A conceptual model summary of wildfire effects on streamflow generation emphasizes: (1) precipitation seasonality, (2) synchrony of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, (3) net shifts in interception, evaporation, and transpiration relative to total annual precipitation, (4) vegetation changes, including compensatory uptake and type conversion, (5) degree of overlap in rainfall rates and infiltration, (6) fire extent and severity, (7) burn scar positioning (e.g. in headwaters or proximal to watershed outlet), (8) scale-dependent groundwater leakage, (9) near-surface water storage reduction, and (10) soil to groundwater connectivity. Ongoing gaps and challenges include separating the influences of precipitation variability, water withdrawals, and post-fire land management; compound and overlapping disturbances; and lack of pre-fire data. Notable future opportunities include: harnessing ever-improving gridded and remotely sensed precipitation and fire-effects data; linking geophysical, isotopic tracer, and geochemical signatures to diagnose hydrologic changes; leveraging physically based and data-driven model advancements; and analyzing streamflow generation recovery trajectories across diverse watersheds.

western United States↗

USGS2006

Scientific developments ISFD3

Highlights, trends, and consensus from the 63 papers submitted to the Scientific Developments theme of the Third International Symposium on Flood Defence (ISFD) are presented. Realizing that absolute protection against flooding can never be guaranteed, trends in flood management have shifted: (1) from flood protection to flood-risk management, (2) from reinforcing structural protection to lowering flood levels, and (3) to sustainable management through integrated problem solving. Improved understanding of watershed responses, climate changes, applications of GIS and remote-sensing technologies, and advanced analytical tools appeared to be the driving forces for renewing flood-risk management strategies. Technical competence in integrating analytical tools to form the basin wide management systems are demonstrated by several large, transnation models. However, analyses from social-economic-environmental points of view are found lag in general. ?? 2006 Taylor & Francis Group.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2018

Drain tiles and groundwater resources: Understanding the relations

Executive Summary Drainage for agricultural production over the past 150 years has been an integral component of human-driven change to Minnesota’s rural landscapes. Benefits of drainage Historically, poorly drained soils across much of the State would often remain saturated or flooded after spring snowmelt, preventing timely farm operations such as tilling and planting crops (Arneman, 1963). Installation of agricultural drainage, both surface ditches and subsurface drainage, accelerated transport of water off farm fields and imparted producers higher crop yields (Beauchamp, 1987; Stoner and others, 1993). Agricultural drainage offered many other benefits such as preventing crop drown out, aerating the soil profile for improved plant growth, limiting surface runoff and soil erosion, and allowing farmers better access to croplands (Fausey and others, 1987). Without agricultural drainage on much of Minnesota’s croplands, it would have been difficult to realize high enough crop yields to remain economically viable. Environmental concerns While drainage of Minnesota croplands provided the benefits mentioned above, several environmental concerns result. These include wetland loss, degradation of downstream water quality, and reduced [potential for] recharge. Early agricultural drainage efforts (pre-20th century) led to the disappearance of much of Minnesota’s natural wetlands. Increased focus on preventing or mitigating wetland loss over the last 50 years has helped curtail further losses, even as agricultural drainage proceeds. Prior to establishment of Minnesota statehood, wetlands accounted for more than 10 million acres in Minnesota, including prairie wetlands, peatlands, and forest wetlands that comprised approximately 19 percent of the total land area (Palmer, 1915; King, 1980). In 2018, only half of Minnesota’s pre-settlement wetlands remain, mostly in parts of the State that have not experienced widespread drainage, such as northern Minnesota. Water-quality monitoring has shown that agricultural drainage, in particular the practice of subsurface drainage, provides a direct flow path for nutrient (nitrogen and soluble phosphorus) losses to surface water resources. The negative consequences of agricultural drainage on surface water quality are well documented (for example, Dinnes and others, 2002; Kladivko and others, 2004; Richards and others, 2008; Rozemeijer and others, 2010; Schottler and others, 2013). Agricultural basins with a high percentage of agricultural drainage have been implicated as part of the cause of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia zone due to excessive nitrogen export (Goolsby and Battaglin, 2001; Randall and Mulla, 2001). The connection of hydrological effects of agricultural subsurface drainage on groundwater recharge and aquifers, on the other hand, has not been well-established. Agricultural subsurface drainage intercepts infiltrating water below croplands and directly discharges the water to nearby surface waters. However, the size of the water balance shift from drained water that would have evapotranspired or run off the land to drained water that would recharge underlying aquifers has been poorly characterized (Schuh, 2008). Drain Tiles and Groundwater Given the poor accounting of subsurface drainage effects on groundwater resources, the Minnesota Ground Water Association (MGWA) deemed it imperative that we document these effects so that groundwater resources in agricultural regions with substantial drainage can be effectively managed. This white paper documents the relations of drain tiles and groundwater resources and discusses the historical significance of agricultural drainage practices, the recognized positive benefits and potential negative consequences of agricultural drainage practices, and the gaps in understanding of the connections between agricultural drainage and groundwater resources. The major messages emerged from the findings of this white paper are: Complex history. Minnesota has a long history of agricultural drainage, spanning over 150 years. Agricultural drainage, and the eventual widespread usage of subsurface drainage, can be separated into at least four distinct periods of time: (a) early drainage to get water off the land, pre-20th century; (b) the boom and bust era (1900-1945); (c) postwar resurgence of subsurface drainage and early conservation efforts (1945-1960); and, (d) emergence of the environmental movement (1960 to present). The State’s regulatory framework that both allowed for drainage and controlled its usage during these periods is complicated and has been governed by a patchwork of both State and Federal statutes. Drainage Provinces. This white paper advances the concept of tile drainage provinces to aid in the discussion of regional differences in subsurface drainage and its overall effect on groundwater resources. Built upon the concept of groundwater provinces (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2001), three distinct tile drainage provinces were conceptualized: (1) the Southeastern Province; (2) the SouthCentral Province; and, (3) the Western Province. The distinct geology and the soils that developed in these regions have implications for each region’s subsurface drainage density and the potential implications for groundwater. Knowledge gaps. Several critical knowledge gaps are identified in this paper, creating opportunities for further research to improve our understanding for better managed water resources: Extent of drainage is unknown. Direct estimates of the extent of subsurface drainage do not exist in Minnesota. However, several indirect methods have been utilized to estimate subsurface drainage, from the field-scale to countylevel through the use of geographic information system (GIS) analysis and aerial photography. Based on a 2012 U.S. Geological Survey estimate of subsurface drainage extent (Nakagaki and Wieczorek, 2016), about 21% of the land area in Minnesota has some density of subsurface drainage. Effect of drainage on underlying aquifers is unknown. A basic understanding of unconfined and confined aquifers and their recharge is necessary to connect any hydrological effects from agricultural drainage to groundwater. The basic goal of subsurface drainage to efficiently drain saturated soils clearly alters the water balance in croplands. However, its overall effect on groundwater resources has been poorly characterized, and is in large part determined by the geology below drained areas and the arrangement of underlying aquifers. Water balance shifts. An improved understanding of historical water balance shifts from pre- to post-drainage periods is necessary to understand long-term implications on net groundwater recharge. Also, more direct field-scale studies and indirect modeling studies are needed to characterize water budgets for fields with subsurface drainage.

Minnesota↗

USGS2021

Towards improved environmental modeling outcomes: Enabling low-cost access to high-dimensional, geostatistical-based decision-support analyses

Computer models of environmental systems routinely inform decision making for water resource management. In this context, quantifying uncertainty in the important simulated outputs, and reducing uncertainty through assimilating historic system-state observations, is as important as the numerical model. However, implementing high-dimensional and stochastic workflows are challenging, often requiring that practitioners have theoretical and practical understanding of several advanced topics. Worse, implementing these important analyses can take substantial time and effort. This additional effort is often cited as justification for postponing, or even forgoing, these analyses. Herein, we present scripting tools to facilitate the efficient and repeatable construction of high-dimensional, geostatistical-based PEST interfaces, including uncertainty analyses. As demonstrated, these tools can be applied with minimal effort to a model with varied temporal and spatial discretization. Ultimately, these tools can enable low-cost access to valuable decision-support analyses earlier and more frequently during the modeling workflow.

Environmental Modelling & Software↗

USGS2010

The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2021

Weathering of slags

Weathering is a natural process causing the transformation of minerals, rocks, and related materials like glass under near-surface conditions. Although metallurgical slags are human-made materials, they also undergo natural weathering processes. As base metal slags weather, the released solutions may contain contaminants that could pose an environmental risk. On the other hand, weathering of ferrous slags is important because of the common reuse of the slags. This chapter summarizes factors that affect rates of slag weathering as well as defining and characterizing the two stages of weathering (incipient and advanced) as they are observed in a wide variety of individual phases and slags. We conclude that slags weather at different scales and rates depending on their chemistry and phase composition as well as the external conditions. Furthermore, weathering of slags is a process that is not perfectly reflected by natural processes because these materials are complex (in terms of texture, composition, and disequilibrium with surficial conditions) and not always analogous to rocks. Therefore, some information in this chapter on weathering is applicable to all slag types, some is relevant to only specific slag types, and some aspects require additional study.

Book chapter↗

USGS1984

Technological innovations in aquaculture

Technology in aquaculture has expanded at a phenomenal rate during the last 50 to 100 years. Based on both this past progress and the present technological advances being made in our society, it is reasonable to expect aquaculturists to profit from the rapid technological advances being made in both hardware and biological systems. These advances will result as spinoffs from medicine, from analytical chemistry, and most importantly, from the evolution of new consumer products such as auto-focus cameras, electronic watches, and microprocessor-monitored automobiles. We can expect to use economical, reliable instrumentation capable of environmental monitoring for predictive purposes and instrumentation that will contain alarm and control circuits. Genetic engineering will result in biological organisms that produce hormones, drugs, and other biological materials as well as detoxify pollutants on demand. When we as aquaculturists identify the need for a product, that product will be developed.

Fisheries↗

USGS2010

Submarine mass transport within Monterey Canyon: Benthic disturbance controls on the distribution of chemosynthetic biological communities

Documenting mass transport within Monterey Canyon and Fan has been a focus of remotely operated vehicle (ROV) observations, sampling, monitoring, and multibeam mapping studies. These efforts indicate that major mass transport events occur within upper Monterey Canyon (<2 km water depths) with a sub-annual recurrence frequency. However, 14 C-stratigraphies indicate that a sand carrying event has not penetrated through lower Monterey Canyon (>2 km water depths) and onto Monterey Fan for ~100 years. Simultaneous efforts to document the distribution of benthic taxa observed in the video records from 668 ROV dives conducted by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) provide a uniquely detailed record of the occurrence of chemosynthetic biological communities (CBC). The combined results of these studies provide an understanding of the relationship between disturbance caused by episodic mass wasting events and the distribution of CBC. CBC are common within the canyon's axis below ~2.5 km water depth, but have not been found within the canyon's axis at depths shallower than 2 km. Moreover, CBC occur on the canyon walls at essentially any depth, primarily within young (~hundreds of years old) slump scars. The distribution of CBC provides evidence about the disturbance history of the seafloor. Major mass transport events will destroy communities that lie in their path. Erosion associated with major mass transport events can create environments to support CBC by exposing methane-bearing strata. This can happen as a result of slumping events on the sidewalls of the canyon or where major gravity flow events have excavated the base of canyon walls. Once fresh strata are exposed, geochemical conditions to support CBC will persist for a few centuries. Because CBC are composed of slow-growing and long-lived organisms, it will take decades for these communities to be established. Their existence indicates that environmental stability has occurred over a similar time scale.

California↗

USGS2022

Measured efficacy, bioaccumulation, and leaching of a transfluthrin-based insecticidal paint: A case study with a nuisance, nonbiting aquatic insect

BACKGROUND Pest management professionals will require a diverse, adaptive abatement toolbox to combat advanced challenges from disease vector and nuisance insect populations. Designed for post-application longevity, insecticidal paints offer extended residual effects on targeted insect pest populations; a measured understanding of active ingredient bioavailability over time is valuable to fully assess treatment efficacy and potential environmental risks. This study was initiated because a nuisance net-spinning caddisfly, Smicridea fasciatella , is lowering the quality of life for riverfront residents at the type locality. RESULTS We tested the efficacy and potential mobility of a transfluthrin-based paint (a.i. 0.50%), comparing the impacts of UV exposure and substrate texture over time. Direct UV exposure decreased efficacy (β ± S.E. = 0.008 ± 0.001, P < 0.001) and a coarse texture maintained greater efficacy (β ± S.E. = −3.7 ± 1.3, P = 0.004) over time. Notably, the coarse texture + indirect UV treatment maintained 100% mortality after 240 days. UV exposure and substrate texture did not have a significant impact on leachate concentrations over time, and successive immersion tests indicated a two-phase emission pattern. Bioaccumulation increased with time on the cuticle of dead adult S. fasciatella ; after 24 h of direct exposure the concentration of transfluthrin was 25.3 ± 0.9 ng/caddisfly with a maximum concentration of 345 ng/caddisfly after 7 days. CONCLUSION Our predictions were validated with measured, time-dependent impacts on efficacy, leachability, and bioaccumulation. Because of the mobility of active ingredient in the environment, insecticidal paints merit low-impact protocols to improve public health outcomes and environmental safety. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Pest Management Science↗

USGS2019

The Aleutian Low – Beaufort Sea Anticyclone: A climate index for predicting the timing of springtime melt in the Pacific Arctic cryosphere

Early and late extremes in the timing of snowmelt have recently been observed in the Pacific Arctic. Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of this timing are important for industry, environmental management and Arctic communities. In northern Alaska, the timing is influenced by the advection of marine air from the north Pacific by the Aleutian Low, modulated by high pressure centered in the Beaufort Sea. A new climate index that integrates their interaction could advance melt predictions. We define this index based on 850 hPa geopotential height at four fixed locations referred to as the Aleutian Low –Beaufort Sea Anticyclone (ALBSA). During positive ALBSA in May, advection of +0.5-1.5 K/day is observed through the Bering Strait. ALBSA is correlated with both snowmelt in northern Alaska and the onset of sea ice melt over the adjacent seas. ALBSA, therefore, may be suitable for monitoring the relevant circulation patterns and for developing predictive tools.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Establishing conservation baselines with dynamic distribution models for bat populations facing imminent decline

Aim Bat mortality rates from white-nose syndrome and wind power development are unprecedented. Cryptic and wide-ranging behaviours of bats make them difficult to survey, and population estimation is often intractable. We advance a model-based framework for making spatially explicit predictions about summertime distributions of bats from capture and acoustic surveys. Motivated by species-energy and life-history theory, our models describe hypotheses about spatio-temporal variation in bat distributions along environmental gradients and life-history attributes, providing a statistical basis for conservation decision-making. Location Oregon and Washington, USA. Methods We developed Bayesian hierarchical models for 14 bat species from an 8-year monitoring dataset across a ~430,000 km 2 study area. Models accounted for imperfect detection and were temporally dynamic. We mapped predicted occurrence probabilities and prediction uncertainties as baselines for assessing future declines. Results Forest cover, snag abundance and cliffs were important predictors for most species. Species occurrence patterns varied along elevation and precipitation gradients, suggesting a potential hump-shaped diversity–productivity relationship. Annual turnover in occurrence was generally low, and occurrence probabilities were stable among most species. We found modest evidence that turnover covaried with the relative riskiness of bat roosting and migration. The fringed myotis ( Myotis thysanodes ), canyon bat ( Parastrellus hesperus ) and pallid bat ( Antrozous pallidus ) were rare; fringed myotis occurrence probabilities declined over the study period. We simulated anticipated declines to demonstrate that mapped occurrence probabilities, updated over time, provide an intuitive way to assess bat conservation status for a broad audience. Main conclusions Landscape keystone structures associated with roosting habitat emerged as regionally important predictors of bat distributions. The challenges of bat monitoring have constrained previous species distribution modelling efforts to temporally static presence-only approaches. Our approach extends to broader spatial and temporal scales than has been possible in the past for bats, making a substantial increase in capacity for bat conservation.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

Current research in land, water, and agroecosystems: ASABE journals 2017 year in review

This article highlights current research into land and water resources, agroecosystems, and agricultural production systems published by the Natural Resources and Environmental Systems (NRES) community of ASABE journals (Transactions of the ASABE and Applied Engineering in Agriculture) in 2017. This article reviews the context, scope, and key results of the published articles and perhaps more importantly recommends areas for increased research attention. Experimental and modeling advances were described in hydrology, agroecosystems, climate-change effects, soil erosion, irrigation, drainage, forest resources, livestock systems, natural treatment systems, international water issues, and water quality topic areas. Three special collections were published (International Watershed Technology, Crop Modeling to Optimize Water Use, and Advances in Drainage). Other focal areas included 14 articles relating to livestock waste management, 13 concerning irrigated agricultural systems, 8 addressing climate change effects on land and water resources, and 16 on various aspects of soil erosion measurement and modeling. Building on the articles reviewed from 2017 and toward a vision of future agroecosystems research, the NRES community of ASABE journals strives to grow its role in making new knowledge accessible to sustain agricultural and natural systems in a changing world. In this vane, recommendations for future research direction are discussed with an emphasis on increased application of remote sensing data to agroecosystems research, improved assessment of agroecosystem resiliency and vulnerability to land and climate change, development of integrated models of agroecosystem services, meeting stubborn water management challenges in agricultural production systems, and focusing on publishing fully reproducible model results.

Transactions of the ASABE↗

USGS2019

Variable hybridization outcomes in trout are predicted by historical fish stocking and environmental context

Hybridization can profoundly affect the genomic composition and phenotypes of closely related species, and provides an opportunity to identify mechanisms that maintain reproductive isolation between species. Recent evidence suggests that hybridization outcomes within a species pair can vary across locations. However, we still don’t know how extensive variation in outcomes of hybridization is across geographic replicates, and what mechanisms drive that variation. In this study, we described hybridization outcomes across 27 locations in the North Fork Shoshone River basin (Wyoming, USA) where native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout co-occur. We used genomic data and hierarchical Bayesian models to precisely identify ancestry of hybrid individuals. Hybridization outcomes varied across locations. In some locations, only rainbow trout and advanced backcrossed hybrids towards rainbow trout were present, while other locations had a broader range of ancestry, including both parental species and first-generation hybrids. Using an individual-based simulation, we found that outcomes of hybridization in the North Fork Shoshone River basin deviate substantially from what we would expect under assumptions of random mating and no selection against hybrids. Since this implies that some mechanisms of reproductive isolation function to maintain parental taxa and a diversity of hybrid types, we then modeled hybridization outcomes as a function of environmental variables and stocking history that are likely to affect prezygotic barriers to hybridization. Variables associated with history of fish stocking were the strongest predictors of hybridization outcomes, followed by environmental variables that might affect overlap in spawning time and location.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Enabling science support for better decision-making when responding to chemical spills

Chemical spills and accidents contaminate the environment and disrupt societies and economies around the globe. In the United States there were approximately 172,000 chemical spills that affected US waterbodies from 2004 to 2014. More than 8000 of these spills involved non–petroleum-related chemicals. Traditional emergency responses or incident command structures (ICSs) that respond to chemical spills require coordinated efforts by predominantly government personnel from multiple disciplines, including disaster management, public health, and environmental protection. However, the requirements of emergency response teams for science support might not be met within the traditional ICS. We describe the US ICS as an example of emergency-response approaches to chemical spills and provide examples in which external scientific support from research personnel benefitted the ICS emergency response, focusing primarily on nonpetroleum chemical spills. We then propose immediate, near-term, and long-term activities to support the response to chemical spills, focusing on nonpetroleum chemical spills. Further, we call for science support for spill prevention and near-term spill-incident response and identify longer-term research needs. The development of a formal mechanism for external science support of ICS from governmental and nongovernmental scientists would benefit rapid responders, advance incident- and crisis-response science, and aid society in coping with and recovering from chemical spills.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2010

New trends in species distribution modelling

Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

Ecography↗

USGS2010

Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy produced a 1 km resolution global land cover characteristics database for use in a wide range of continental-to global-scale environmental studies. This database provides a unique view of the broad patterns of the biogeographical and ecoclimatic diversity of the global land surface, and presents a detailed interpretation of the extent of human development. The project was carried out as an International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Data and Information Systems (IGBP-DIS) initiative. The IGBP DISCover global land cover product is an integral component of the global land cover database. DISCover includes 17 general land cover classes defined to meet the needs of IGBP core science projects. A formal accuracy assessment of the DISCover data layer will be completed in 1998. The 1 km global land cover database was developed through a continent-by-continent unsupervised classification of 1 km monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) composites covering 1992-1993. Extensive post-classification stratification was necessary to resolve spectral/temporal confusion between disparate land cover types. The complete global database consists of 961 seasonal land cover regions that capture patterns of land cover, seasonality and relative primary productivity. The seasonal land cover regions were aggregated to produce seven separate land cover data sets used for global environmental modelling and assessment. The data sets include IGBP DISCover, U.S. Geological Survey Anderson System, Simple Biosphere Model, Simple Biosphere Model 2, Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme, Olson Ecosystems and Running Global Remote Sensing Land Cover. The database also includes all digital sources that were used in the classification. The complete database can be sourced from the website: http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/landdaac/glcc/glcc.html.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2013

Estimating groundwater recharge

Understanding groundwater recharge is essential for successful management of water resources and modeling fluid and contaminant transport within the subsurface. This book provides a critical evaluation of the theory and assumptions that underlie methods for estimating rates of groundwater recharge. Detailed explanations of the methods are provided - allowing readers to apply many of the techniques themselves without needing to consult additional references. Numerous practical examples highlight benefits and limitations of each method. Approximately 900 references allow advanced practitioners to pursue additional information on any method. For the first time, theoretical and practical considerations for selecting and applying methods for estimating groundwater recharge are covered in a single volume with uniform presentation. Hydrogeologists, water-resource specialists, civil and agricultural engineers, earth and environmental scientists and agronomists will benefit from this informative and practical book. It can serve as the primary text for a graduate-level course on groundwater recharge or as an adjunct text for courses on groundwater hydrology or hydrogeology.

Book↗