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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Water salinity and inundation control soil carbon decomposition during salt marsh restoration: An incubation experiment

Coastal wetlands are a significant carbon (C) sink since they store carbon in anoxic soils. This ecosystem service is impacted by hydrologic alteration and management of these coastal habitats. Efforts to restore tidal flow to former salt marshes have increased in recent decades and are generally associated with alteration of water inundation levels and salinity. This study examined the effect of water level and salinity changes on soil organic matter decomposition during a 60‐day incubation period. Intact soil cores from impounded fresh water marsh and salt marsh were incubated after addition of either sea water or fresh water under flooded and drained water levels. Elevating fresh water marsh salinity to 6 to 9 ppt enhanced CO 2 emission by 50%−80% and most typically decreased CH 4 emissions, whereas, decreasing the salinity from 26 ppt to 19 ppt in salt marsh soils had no effect on CO 2 or CH 4 fluxes. The effect from altering water levels was more pronounced with drained soil cores emitting ~10‐fold more CO 2 than the flooded treatment in both marsh sediments. Draining soil cores also increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. Stable carbon isotope analysis of CO 2 generated during the incubations of fresh water marsh cores in drained soils demonstrates that relict peat OC that accumulated when the marsh was saline was preferentially oxidized when sea water was introduced. This study suggests that restoration of tidal flow that raises the water level from drained conditions would decrease aerobic decomposition and enhance C sequestration. It is also possible that the restoration would increase soil C decomposition of deeper deposits by anaerobic oxidation, however this impact would be minimal compared to lower emissions expected due to the return of flooding conditions.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red-eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated-detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit only improved insignificantly when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red-eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. Our results estimating a weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicate that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change changing the distributions of these species and, more significantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Complex immune responses and molecular reactions to pathogens and disease in a desert reptile (Gopherus agassizii)

Immune function plays an important role in an animal's defense against infectious disease. In reptiles, immune responses may be complex and counterintuitive, and diagnostic tools used to identify infection, such as induced antibody responses are limited. Recent studies using gene transcription profiling in tortoises have proven useful in identifying immune responses to various intrinsic and extrinsic stressors. As part of a larger experiment with Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ), we facilitated the transmission of the pathogenic bacteria, Mycoplasma agassizii (Myag), to naïve adults and measured innate and induced immune reactions over time. Specifically, we evaluated clinical condition, presence of Myag in the nasal/oral cavity, induced antibody responses specific to Myag, and measured molecular reactions (gene transcript profiles) in 15 captive tortoises classified as naïve, exposed, or infected and 14 wild tortoises for comparison. Myag was confirmed inside the nasal/oral cavity in exposed tortoises within 30–60 days of introduction to infected animals, yet we did not detect Myag specific induced antibody responses in these individuals until 420–595 days post exposure. Surprisingly, we found no overall differences in the gene transcript profiles between our experimental treatment groups throughout this study. This work highlights the complexities in assessing immune function and diagnosing pathogen related infections in tortoises and other reptiles.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

A hierarchical Bayesian approach for handling missing classification data

Ecologists use classifications of individuals in categories to understand composition of populations and communities. These categories might be defined by demographics, functional traits, or species. Assignment of categories is often imperfect, but frequently treated as observations without error. When individuals are observed but not classified, these “partial” observations must be modified to include the missing data mechanism to avoid spurious inference. We developed two hierarchical Bayesian models to overcome the assumption of perfect assignment to mutually exclusive categories in the multinomial distribution of categorical counts, when classifications are missing. These models incorporate auxiliary information to adjust the posterior distributions of the proportions of membership in categories. In one model, we use an empirical Bayes approach, where a subset of data from one year serves as a prior for the missing data the next. In the other approach, we use a small random sample of data within a year to inform the distribution of the missing data. We performed a simulation to show the bias that occurs when partial observations were ignored and demonstrated the altered inference for the estimation of demographic ratios. We applied our models to demographic classifications of elk ( Cervus elaphus nelsoni ) to demonstrate improved inference for the proportions of sex and stage classes. We developed multiple modeling approaches using a generalizable nested multinomial structure to account for partially observed data that were missing not at random for classification counts. Accounting for classification uncertainty is important to accurately understand the composition of populations and communities in ecological studies.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Estimating the energy expenditure of free‐ranging polar bears using tri‐axial accelerometers: A validation with doubly labeled water

Measures of energy expenditure can be used to inform animal conservation and management, but methods for measuring the energy expenditure of free‐ranging animals have a variety of limitations. Advancements in biologging technologies have enabled the use of dynamic body acceleration derived from accelerometers as a proxy for energy expenditure. Although dynamic body acceleration has been shown to strongly correlate with oxygen consumption in captive animals, it has been validated in only a few studies on free‐ranging animals. Here, we use relationships between oxygen consumption and overall dynamic body acceleration in resting and walking polar bears Ursus maritimus and published values for the costs of swimming in polar bears to estimate the total energy expenditure of 6 free‐ranging polar bears that were primarily using the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Energetic models based on accelerometry were compared to models of energy expenditure on the same individuals derived from doubly labeled water methods. Accelerometer‐based estimates of energy expenditure on average predicted total energy expenditure to be 30% less than estimates derived from doubly labeled water. Nevertheless, accelerometer‐based measures of energy expenditure strongly correlated ( r 2 = 0.70) with measures derived from doubly labeled water. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations in dynamic body acceleration as a measure of total energy expenditure while also further supporting its use as a proxy for instantaneous, detailed energy expenditure in free‐ranging animals.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗
USGS2019

North-facing slopes and elevation shape asymmetric genetic structure in the range-restricted salamander Plethodon shenandoah

Species with narrow environmental preferences are often distributed across fragmented patches of suitable habitat, and dispersal among subpopulations can be difficult to directly observe. Genetic data collected at population centers can help quantify gene flow, which is especially important for vulnerable species with a disjunct range. Plethodon shenandoah is a Federally Endangered salamander known only from three mountaintops in Virginia, USA. To reconstruct the evolutionary history and population connectivity of this species, we generated both mitochondrial and nuclear data using sequence capture for all three populations and found strong population structure that was independent of geographic distance. Both the nuclear markers and mitochondrial genome indicated a deep split between the most southern population and the combined central and northern population. Although there was some mitochondrial haplotype-splitting between the central and northern populations, there was complete admixture in nuclear markers. This is indicative of either a recent split or current male-biased dispersal among mountain isolates. Models of landscape resistance found that dispersal across north-facing slopes at mid-elevation levels best explain the observed genetic structure among populations. These unexpected results highlight the importance of landscape features in understanding and predicting movement and fragmentation of salamanders across space.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Does perspective matter? A case study comparing Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of common murre (Uria aalge) distributions

Studies estimating species' distributions require information about animal locations in space and time. Location data can be collected using surveys within a predetermined frame of reference (i.e., Eulerian sampling) or from animal‐borne tracking devices (i.e., Lagrangian sampling). Integration of observations obtained from Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives can provide insights into animal movement and habitat use. However, contemporaneous data from both perspectives are rarely available, making examination of biases associated with each sampling approach difficult. We compared distributions of a mobile seabird observed concurrently from ship, aerial, and satellite tag surveys during May, June, and July 2012 in the northern California Current. We calculated utilization distributions to quantify and compare variability in common murre (Uria aalge) space use and examine how sampling perspective and platform influence observed patterns. Spatial distributions of murres were similar in May, regardless of sampling perspective. Greatest densities occurred in coastal waters off southern Washington and northern Oregon, near large murre colonies and the mouth of the Columbia River. Density distributions of murres estimated from ship and aerial surveys in June and July were similar to those observed in May, whereas distributions of satellite‐tagged murres in June and July indicated northward movement into British Columbia, Canada, resulting in different patterns observed from Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives. These results suggest that the population of murres observed in the northern California Current during spring and summer includes relatively stationary individuals attending breeding colonies and nonstationary, vagile adults and subadults. Given the expected growth of telemetry studies and advances in survey technology (e.g., unmanned aerial systems), these results highlight the importance of considering methodological approaches, spatial extent, and synopticity of distribution data sets prior to integrating data from different sampling perspectives.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Bats in a changing landscape: Linking occupancy and traits of a diverse montane bat community to fire regime

1. Wildfires are increasing in incidence and severity across the western US, leading to changes in forest structure and wildlife habitats. Knowledge of how species respond to fire-driven habitat changes in these landscapes is limited and generally disconnected from our understanding of adaptations that underpin responses to fire. 2. We aimed to identify relationships between fire regime, physiographic and forest structure variables, and occupancy and functional traits of a diverse bat community, to inform forest management in a fire-prone landscape. 3. We recorded bats acoustically at 83 sites (n = 249 recording nights) across the Plumas National Forest in the northern Sierra Nevada over 3 summers (2015-2017). We investigated relationships between fire regime, physiographic and forest structure and probability of bat occupancy for 9 species. We used fourth corner regression and RLQ analysis to identify ecomorphological traits (body mass; call frequency, bandwidth and duration; and open, edge or clutter (structurally complex vegetation) adapted foraging strategy) driving species-environment relationships across all 17 bat species. 4. Relationships between bat traits and fire regime were driven by adaptations to diverse forest structure. Bats adapted to foraging in open habitats and emitting longer duration and narrow bandwidth calls were associated with higher severity and more frequent fires, and bats adapted to foraging in a more cluttered environment were negatively associated with fire. Relationships between edge-adapted bat species and fire were driven by prey preference or habitat availability and configuration at a landscape scale. 5. Predicted increases in fire frequency and severity in the western US are likely to shift dominance in the bat community to species adapted to open environments and those able to exploit post-fire resource pulses (aquatic insects, beetles, snags). Managing for pyrodiversity within the western US is likely important for maintaining bat community diversity, as well as diversity of other biotic communities. Identifying trait-fire regime relationships will help forest managers develop appropriate management interventions and focus limited resources to provide for a broad range of species.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Changes in genetic diversity and differentiation in Red‐cockaded woodpeckers (Dryobates borealis) over the past century

Red‐cockaded woodpeckers (RCW; Dryobates borealis ) declined after human activities reduced their fire‐maintained pine ecosystem to <3% of its historical range in the southeastern United States and degraded remaining habitat. An estimated 1.6 million RCW cooperative breeding groups declined to about 3,500 groups with no more than 10,000 birds by 1978. Management has increased RCW population abundances since they were at their lowest in the 1990s. However, no range‐wide study has been undertaken since then to investigate the impacts of this massive bottleneck or infer the effects of conservation management and recent demographic recoveries. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and nine nuclear microsatellite loci to determine if range‐wide demographic declines resulted in changes to genetic structure and diversity in RCW by comparing samples collected before 1970 (mtDNA data only), between 1992 and 1995 (mtDNA and microsatellites), and between 2010 and 2014 (mtDNA and microsatellites). We show that genetic diversity has been lost as detected by a reduction in the number of mitochondrial haplotypes. This reduction was apparent in comparisons of pre‐1970 mtDNA data with data from the 1992–1995 and 2010–2014 time points, with no change between the latter two time points in mtDNA and microsatellite analyses. The mtDNA data also revealed increases in range‐wide genetic differentiation, with a genetically panmictic population present throughout the southeastern United States in the pre‐1970s data and subsequent development of genetic structure that has remained unchanged since the 1990s. Genetic structure was also uncovered with the microsatellite data, which like the mtDNA data showed little change between the 1992–1995 and 2010–2014 data sets. Temporal haplotype networks revealed a consistent, star‐like phylogeny, suggesting that despite the overall loss of haplotypes, no phylogenetically distinct mtDNA lineages were lost when the population declined. Our results may suggest that management during the last two decades has prevented additional losses of genetic diversity.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗
USGS2019

Sitting ducklings: Timing of hatch, nest departure, and predation risk for dabbling duck broods

For ground‐nesting waterfowl, the timing of egg hatch and duckling departure from the nest may be influenced by the risk of predation at the nest and en route to wetlands and constrained by the time required for ducklings to imprint on the hen and be physically able to leave the nest. We determined the timing of hatch, nest departure, and predation on dabbling duck broods using small video cameras placed at the nests of mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ; n = 26), gadwall ( Mareca strepera ; n = 24), and cinnamon teal ( Anas cyanoptera ; n = 5). Mallard eggs began to hatch throughout the day and night, whereas gadwall eggs generally started to hatch during daylight hours (mean 7.5 hr after dawn). Among all species, duckling departure from the nest occurred during daylight (98%), and 53% of hens typically left the nest with their broods 1–4 hr after dawn. For mallard and gadwall, we identified three strategies for the timing of nest departure: (a) 9% of broods left the nest the same day that eggs began to hatch (6–12 hr later), (b) 81% of broods left the nest the day after eggs began to hatch, and (c) 10% of broods waited 2 days to depart the nest after eggs began to hatch, leaving the nest just after the second dawn (27–42 hr later). Overall, eggs were depredated at 10% of nests with cameras in the 2 days prior to hatch and ducklings were depredated at 15% of nests with cameras before leaving the nest. Our results suggest that broods prefer to depart the nest early in the morning, which may best balance developmental constraints with predation risk both at the nest and en route to wetlands.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short‐term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0–3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander ( Ambystoma cingulatum ). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non‐overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum , that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane‐prone regions.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Begging behavior as an honest signal of need and parent-offspring association during the post-fledging dependency period

Honest signaling mechanisms can function to appropriate care to hungry offspring and avoid misdirected care of unrelated offspring. Begging, the behavior by which offspring solicit food and parental care, may be an honest signaling mechanism for need, as well as association of parents and offspring. Roseate terns (Sterna dougallii) exhibit prolonged parental care during the post-breeding staging period, offering an ideal system in which to study begging as an honest signaling mechanism. We conducted focal sampling during two pre-migratory staging seasons (2014 and 2015) at Cape Cod National Seashore, MA to determine whether post-fledging tern begging behavior was an honest signal for need and parent-offspring association. Based on honest signaling theory, we expected begging behavior to be highest during times of high perceived need, and we expected to see a decrease in begging behavior as young terns became increasingly independent of the care-giving parent. Also, we predicted that young terns would be more likely to beg at parents than non-parents. We found that young roseate terns begged at their parents more often than non-parents; however, they did not always beg at parents. Model predictions of begging probability showed a linear relationship between begging and time of day and date of season, such that begging increased with time of day and decreased with date of season, respectively. Our results provide evidence for honest parent-offspring interactions and are inconsistent with parent-offspring conflict theory but suggest that begging may play a complex role in post-fledging parent-offspring interactions.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2019

Mismatches between breeding phenology and resource abundance of resident alpine ptarmigan negatively affect chick survival

1. Phenological mismatches – defined here as the difference in reproductive timing of an individual relative to the availability of its food resources – occur in many avian species. Mistiming breeding activities in environments with constrained breeding windows may have severe fitness costs due to reduced opportunities for repeated breeding attempts. Therefore, species occurring in alpine environments may be particularly vulnerable. 2. We studied fitness consequences of timing of breeding in an alpine-endemic species, the white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucura ), to investigate its influence on chick survival. We estimated phenological mismatch by measuring plant and arthropods used by ptarmigan in relation to their timing of breeding. 3. We monitored 120 nests and 67 broods over a three-year period (2013–2015) at three alpine study sites in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. During this same period we actively monitored food resource abundance in brood-use areas to develop year and site specific resource phenology curves. We developed several mismatch indices from these curves that were then fit as covariates in mark-recapture chick survival models. 4. A correlation analysis between seasonal changes in arthropod and food plant abundance indicated that a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was likely the best predictor for food available to hens and chicks. A survival model that included an interaction between NDVI mismatch and chick age received strong support and indicated young chicks were more susceptible to mismatch than older chicks. 5. We provide evidence that individual females of a resident alpine species can be negatively affected by phenological mismatch. Our study focused on individual females and did not examine if phenological mismatch was present at the population level. Future work in animal populations occurring in mountain systems focusing on a combination of both individual- and population- level metrics of mismatch will be beneficial.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Ecological effects of fear: How spatiotemporal heterogeneity in predation risk influences mule deer access to forage in a sky‐island system

Forage availability and predation risk interact to affect habitat use of ungulates across many biomes. Within sky‐island habitats of the Mojave Desert, increased availability of diverse forage and cover may provide ungulates with unique opportunities to extend nutrient uptake and/or to mitigate predation risk. We addressed whether habitat use and foraging patterns of female mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) responded to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), NDVI rate of change (green‐up), or the occurrence of cougars ( Puma concolor ). Female mule deer used available green‐up primarily in spring, although growing vegetation was available during other seasons. Mule deer and cougar shared similar habitat all year, and our models indicated cougars had a consistent, negative effect on mule deer access to growing vegetation, particularly in summer when cougar occurrence became concentrated at higher elevations. A seemingly late parturition date coincided with diminishing NDVI during the lactation period. Sky‐island populations, rarely studied, provide the opportunity to determine how mule deer respond to growing foliage along steep elevation and vegetation gradients when trapped with their predators and seasonally limited by aridity. Our findings indicate that fear of predation may restrict access to the forage resources found in sky islands.

Nevada↗
USGS2019

Coast to coast: High genomic connectivity in North American scoters

Dispersal shapes demographic processes and therefore is fundamental to understanding biological, ecological, and evolutionary processes acting within populations. However, assessing population connectivity in scoters ( Melanitta sp.) is challenging as these species have large spatial distributions that span remote landscapes, have varying nesting distributions (disjunct vs. continuous), exhibit unknown levels of dispersal, and vary in the timing of the formation of pair bonds (winter vs. fall/spring migration) that may influence the distribution of genetic diversity. Here, we used double‐digest restriction‐associated DNA sequence (ddRAD) and microsatellite genotype data to assess population structure within the three North American species of scoter (black scoter, M. americana ; white‐winged scoter, M. deglandi ; surf scoter, M. perspicillata ), and between their European congeners (common scoter, M. nigra ; velvet scoter, M. fusca ). We uncovered no or weak genomic structure (ddRAD Φ ST < 0.019; microsatellite F ST < 0.004) within North America but high levels of structure among European congeners (ddRAD Φ ST > 0.155, microsatellite F ST > 0.086). The pattern of limited genomic structure within North America is shared with other sea duck species and is often attributed to male‐biased dispersal. Further, migratory tendencies (east vs. west) of female surf and white‐winged scoters in central Canada are known to vary across years, providing additional opportunities for intracontinental dispersal and a mechanism for the maintenance of genomic connectivity across North America. In contrast, the black scoter had relatively elevated levels of divergence between Alaska and Atlantic sites and a second genetic cluster found in Alaska at ddRAD loci was concordant with its disjunct breeding distribution suggestive of a dispersal barrier (behavioral or physical). Although scoter populations appear to be connected through a dispersal network, a small percentage (<4%) of ddRAD loci had elevated divergence which may be useful in linking areas (nesting, molting, staging, and wintering) throughout the annual cycle.

North America↗
USGS2019

Linking demographic and food-web models to understand management trade-offs

Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multi-state models to a capture-recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors influencing survival. The estimated relationships were employed together with Ecopath-with-Ecosim food-web model simulations to project guillemot survival under six future scenarios incorporating climate change. The scenarios were based on management alternatives for eutrophication and cod fisheries, issues considered top priority for regional management, but without known direct effects on the guillemot population. Our demographic models identified prey quantity (abundance and biomass of sprat Sprattus sprattus) as the main factor influencing guillemot survival. Most scenarios resulted in projections of increased survival, in the near (2016-2040) and distant (2060-2085) future. However, in the scenario of reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing, guillemot survival was projected to be lower in both future periods due to lower sprat stocks. Matrix population models suggested a substantial decline of the guillemot population in the near future, 24% per 10 years; and a smaller reduction, 1.1% per 10 years, in the distant future. To date, many stakeholders and Baltic Sea governments have supported reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing and implementation is underway. Negative effects on non-focal-species have previously not been uncovered, but our results show that the scenario is likely to negatively impact the guillemot population. Linking model results allowed identifying trade-offs associated with management alternatives. This information is critical to thorough evaluation by decision-makers, but not easily obtained by food-web models or demographic models in isolation. Appropriate datasets are often available, making it feasible to apply a linked approach for better-informed decisions in ecosystem-based management.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Are polar bear habitat resource selection functions developed from 1985-1996 data still useful?

1. Greenhouse gas-induced warming in the Arctic has caused declines in sea ice extent and changed its composition, raising concerns by all circumpolar nations for polar bear conservation. 2. Negative impacts have been observed in three well-studied polar bear subpopulations. Most subpopulations, however, receive little or no direct monitoring, hence, resource selection functions (RSF) may provide a useful proxy of polar bear distributions. However, the efficacy of RSFs constructed from past data, i.e., reference RSFs, may be degraded under contemporary conditions, especially in a rapidly changing environment. 3. We assessed published Arctic-wide reference RSFs using tracking data from adult female polar bears captured in the Beaufort Sea. We compared telemetry-derived seasonal distributions of polar bears to RSF-defined optimal sea ice habitat during the period of RSF model development, 1985–1995, and two subsequent periods with diminished sea ice: 1996–2006 and 2007–2016. From these comparisons, we assessed the applicability of the reference RSFs for contemporary polar bear conservation. 4. In the two decades following the 1985–1995 reference period, use and availability of optimal habitat by polar bears declined during the ice melt, ice minimum and ice growth seasons. During the ice maximum season (i.e., winter), polar bears used the best habitat available, which changed relatively little across the three decades of study. During the ice melt, ice minimum and ice growth seasons, optimal habitat in areas used by polar bears decreased and was displaced north and east of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast. As optimal habitat diminished in these seasons, polar bears expanded their range and occupied greater areas of sub-optimal habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications: Sea ice declines due to climate change continue to challenge polar bears and their conservation. The distribution of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears remained similar during the ice maximum season, so the reference RSFs developed from data collected >20 years ago continue to accurately model their winter distribution. In contrast, reference RSFs for the ice transitional and minimum seasons showed diminished predictive efficacy but were useful in revealing that contemporary polar bears have been increasingly forced to use sub-optimal habitats during those seasons.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2013

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Utah↗