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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Riverscape heterogeneity shapes population diversity for a migratory fish

Habitat patch dynamics can scale up to influence population demography and diversity with implications for resilience to environmental stochasticity. But how the spatial arrangement and size of habitat patches interact with other components of habitat heterogeneity to shape population diversity at larger spatial scales is not well understood. For riverine fishes, there is increasing evidence that tributary streams provide critical demographic support to main stem rivers. However, the extent to which main stem rivers rely on demographic contributions from tributaries, and the factors underlying this dependence, have not been assessed. Here, we used genetic stock identification to evaluate the effect of tributaries on population diversity of Yellowstone cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus virginalis bouvieri ) occupying the main stem Snake River, Wyoming, USA. We found that the main stem relied almost entirely on tributaries for demographic support, but main stem composition varied spatially among river sections. Distance between habitat patches, catchment area, and groundwater availability acted in concert to determine the contribution of specific tributaries to the main stem, but contributions were ultimately modulated by habitat connectivity. We also found evidence for multi-scale spatial structure in tributary contributions, providing insight into untested drivers of main stem river population diversity. Our results demonstrate how spatially discrete and distributed riverscape attributes influence population diversity at broader spatial scales, illustrating how ecosystem resilience emerges from the dynamic, two-way exchange of individuals and energy across habitat networks. Management plans for large rivers that address the ecological contributions of tributaries may be needed to achieve optimal outcomes. Similarly, conservation strategies that exclusively focus on headwater streams may fail to capture the broader habitat requirements necessary to maintain robust cold-water fish populations and associated recreational fisheries, particularly under global environmental change.

Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Quantifying avian resilience to habitat change to support conservation decision-making

Habitat loss and degradation are two of the main drivers of contemporary avian population declines. Wildlife managers are increasingly advocating for tools that provide decision support to set priorities for restoration or conservation efficiently. We demonstrate how to derive two species-specific management and resilience metrics: the greatest management impact point (GMIP) and the ecological resilience threshold (RT). The GMIP indicates the amount of environmental change in a landscape where habitat improvements are expected to have the greatest impact on species’ occurrence. The RT represents the amount of environmental change in a landscape that a species can tolerate before the steepest change in occupancy is expected to begin. We estimate species-specific metrics using the amount of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation as an index of environmental change, and demonstrate how multispecies patterns may suggest potential management strategies. We estimated occupancy models using 5 years of multispecies avian detection data from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program in the State of Utah, USA (hereafter, Utah). Based on the estimated relationship between species’ occupancy and amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation, we derive RT and GMIP scores for 61 species breeding in Utah. We found wide interspecific variation in resilience to amounts of exotic vegetation, with species generally clustering at extreme values. Our results demonstrate that birds in Utah appear more resilient to amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation at coarser spatial resolution, showing greater variance and lower average RTs at finer spatial resolution. Species that are not fully resilient to the range of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation observed in this study are expected to respond most strongly, on average, to management actions in landscapes with high levels of exotic vegetation; however, early detection and rapid response is likely the most effective strategy. Quantified across many species, these metrics can be used to identify and prioritize landscapes where current environmental conditions could be maintained to avoid the greatest species’ declines, or which maximize expected biodiversity returns on investment in environmental restoration. Managers can consider either focal species’ resilience for tailored conservation planning or summarize species resilience to create efficient management plans that maximize outcomes for multiple species.

Utah↗
USGS2026

Accounting for temporal variation and correlation in environmental DNA sampling can improve ecological inferences

Environmental DNA (eDNA) concentration varies through space and time, and measurements collected close together are often correlated. Ignoring this dependence can inflate the rate of incorrect ecological inferences (Type I error rate). Although spatial correlation in eDNA has received considerable attention, temporal correlation has been less well studied. Statistical models and study designs that account for temporal correlation are increasingly important to understand time-dependent effects in complex systems. We developed a hierarchical model that separates temporal ecological variation from variability stemming from sampling and laboratory processes and applied it to four single-site eDNA time series collected over 17–24 days, three of which provided sufficient information for parameter estimation. We then used the empirically estimated parameter magnitudes in a simulation study to evaluate alternative temporal sampling designs that considered (1) how a fixed number of samples are allocated across different numbers of sampling times with different levels of temporal replication and (2) equally spaced versus cluster-spaced sampling (short bursts separated by longer gaps). Across the three time series sufficient for analysis, we observed substantial sampling variability, temporal variability, and temporal correlation, although correlation was estimated imprecisely (large coefficient of variation). Simulations showed that when sampling intervals were shorter than the effective temporal correlation range, models that ignored temporal dependence produced inflated Type I error rates and frequently detected spurious temporal trends. Accounting for temporal correlation substantially reduced this inflated Type I error rate. Optimal sampling strategies depended on study objectives. Clustered sampling most effectively estimated temporal correlation. When temporal dependence was negligible, evenly spaced sampling maximized power to detect trends. Estimating sampling variability required concentrating effort into fewer sampling times with more replicates per time, whereas estimating temporal variance was most precise with intermediate levels of replication. Together, these results indicate that temporal dependence can strongly affect inference from quantitative eDNA time series when sampling intervals approach the correlation timescale. Designs that ignore this dependence risk inferring ecological change or difference where none exists. Our framework provides practical guidance for allocating sampling effort in temporally intensive eDNA monitoring and for interpreting trends from short time series.

Idaho, Florida, Montana, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Listening for extinction: Range-wide occupancy highlights critical risks and priorities for northern spotted owls

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) continues to decline across its range, threatened by habitat disturbances and invasive barred owls ( Strix varia ). We conducted a range-wide spotted owl occupancy assessment using 2.1 million h of passive acoustic recordings from 4081 survey stations within 1027 randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons across six physiographic regions. Applying multistate occupancy models, we estimated probabilities of landscape use (by at least one northern spotted owl) and pair occupancy (occupied by both a male and a female), while accounting for imperfect and sex-biased detection probability. Detection probability of pairs was low in most regions, primarily due to undetected females, but increased with survey effort. If management decisions can only be made when there is a high probability of detecting both sexes when they are present, then longer surveys are one approach to support the decisions. Landscape use and pair occupancy were positively associated with old-growth forest structure and topographic diversity. We also found a pronounced latitudinal gradient in spotted owl landscape use rates with estimated mean landscape use of 0.17 (SE = 0.03) and 0.16 (SE = 0.02) in the two most northern regions, and 0.54 (SE = 0.04) and 0.52 (SE = 0.05) in the two most southern regions. Pair occupancy rates were higher in southern regions (0.29, SE = 0.03, 0.43, SE = 0.05) and very low in northern regions (0.04, SE = 0.01, 0.03, SE = 0.01). In contrast to spotted owls, barred owls were detected in 90% of northern hexagons and 50% of southern hexagons, and barred owl calling intensity was over eight times higher than spotted owls. These results highlight extinction risks in several regions and suggest that management actions, such as spatially targeted barred owl control and protection of structurally complex habitats, have a narrow temporal window in which they can be effective in lowering the probability of regional extirpations. We generated predictive maps of landscape use and pair occupancy, which could help guide regional conservation strategies. This study demonstrates how passive acoustic monitoring and machine learning can be used for broad-scale ecological monitoring, identifying extinction risk thresholds, supporting adaptive management, and improving conservation outcomes for wide-ranging and elusive species that can reliably be detected through unique vocalizations.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Probabilistic forecasting of coastal wetland elevation and soil carbon response to sea-level rise

Tidal wetlands build soil as a dynamic response to inundation, resulting in carbon sequestration and resilience to sea-level rise. Process models can be used to make site-specific forecasts, anticipate future changes, and plan management responses. But to be actionable, forecasts from these models need to be accompanied by descriptions of their confidence. In this study, we demonstrate the application of ecological forecasting principles to the unique case of tidal wetland vulnerability and carbon storage, given accelerating and uncertain sea-level rise. We present a case study using the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model at the Global Change Research Wetland in Maryland, USA. We used meta-analyses to quantify lab- and sample-level measurement uncertainties for common soil measurements and to develop Bayesian model priors. Reanalysis of previous literature supported predictive relationships between belowground turnover and mean annual temperature, as well as between soil erodibility and suspended sediment concentration that could be transferable to other locations. The model forecasted a likely conversion of low-elevation marsh to open water by the 2060s, accompanied by a decrease in marsh carbon storage capacity. Forecasted uncertainty in elevation was dominated by structural uncertainty in the model, while carbon accumulation rates were more influenced by parameter uncertainty. After 2050, and increasingly as the forecast approached 2100, uncertainty in sea-level rise projections contributed to uncertainty in both forecasts. Forecasts were most sensitive to processes related to organic matter preservation, plant productivity (maximum aboveground biomass and belowground turnover), and organic soil packing density. The soil formed was an organic-rich peat (>70% organic matter according to the data), and model predictions were insensitive to parameters associated with mineral sedimentation. We identify additional field data collection, such as on decomposition trajectories and plant productivity, and data-model coupling of near-term elevation records as the most impactful strategies for reducing uncertainties in future forecasting efforts. Future work can build on this forecasting framework in other locations, using it for adaptive management, identifying appropriate interventions to mitigate wetland loss, and projecting future carbon removal capacity in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

Maryland↗
USGS2017

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Biological soil crust and disturbance controls on surface hydrology in a semi-arid ecosystem

Biological soil crust communities (biocrusts) play an important role in surface hydrologic processes in dryland ecosystems, and these processes may then be dramatically altered with soil surface disturbance. In this study, we examined biocrust hydrologic responses to disturbance at different developmental stages on sandy soils on the Colorado Plateau. Our results showed that all disturbance (trampling, scalping and trampling+scalping) of the early successional light cyanobacterial biocrusts generally reduced runoff. In contrast, trampling well-developed dark-cyano-lichen biocrusts increased runoff and sediment loss relative to intact controls. Scalping did not increase runoff, implying that soil aggregate structure was important to the infiltration process. Well-developed, intact dark biocrusts generally had lower runoff, low sediment loss, and highest aggregate stability whereas the less-developed light biocrusts were highest in runoff and sediment loss when compared to the controls. These results suggest the importance of maintaining the well-developed dark biocrusts, as they are beneficial for lowering runoff and reducing soil loss and redistribution on the landscape. These data also suggest that upslope patches of light biocrust may either support water transport to downslope vegetation patches or alternatively this runoff may place dark biocrust patches at risk of disruption and loss, given that light patches increase runoff and thus soil erosion potential.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Discontinuities and functional resilience of large river fish assemblages

Functional composition of communities across scales is increasingly used to infer resilience of biotic communities to environmental change. To assess the relevance of these concepts to management of large rivers, analyses were applied to fish community data of the Upper Mississippi River. First, to evaluate whether there was evidence for structural patterns in fish size distributions, a discontinuity analysis was performed. Using long‐term fish data, consistent discontinuities were identified across 14 reaches, suggesting similar structuring processes occur throughout the nearly 1300 river kilometers represented by those reaches. Increased variability in species abundance in relation to proximity to edges of body size aggregations supports the discontinuity hypothesis that body size aggregations are structured by key processes. Functional richness and redundancy were quantified within and across identified scales for each of 14 river reaches. Diversity of trophic and spawning guilds was generally greater in the upstream reaches in comparison with downstream reaches, with the exception of the diversity of large‐bodied spawning guilds. Evidence of functional shifts in the composition of fishes occurred, but differed by size aggregations, likely reflecting scale‐specific resource availability. Redundancy of spawning and trophic groups across body size aggregations suggested downstream reaches of this system may be less resilient to disturbances and were weakly associated with reduced habitat diversity. These findings suggest that discontinuities in large river fish assemblages do occur and may provide indication of shifting resource availability. Further investigation of the underlying processes and scales that support resource availability will be critical to managing for resilience in large river ecosystems.

Upper Mississippi River↗
USGS1992

A new device for collection of interstitial water from wetland sediments

A sampler for collection of interstitial water from wetland sediments is described. It differs from other sampling devices because it does not have to be filled with solution to facilitate diffusion, it does not have to be removed from the wetland to collect samples, and it can be used to draw repeated samples over time from identical locations. The device facilitates “in situ” measurement of a wide range of abiotic parameters such as electrical conductivity, redox potential, and pH in wetland sediments. The device has application in ecological investigations of sediment-borne wildlife diseases, studies of benthic invertebrates, measurement of nutrient exchange, and other aspects of wetland ecology.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗
USGS2013

Candidate soil indicators for monitoring the progress of constructed wetlands toward a natural state: a statistical approach

A persistent question among ecologists and environmental managers is whether constructed wetlands are structurally or functionally equivalent to naturally occurring wetlands. We examined 19 variables collected from 10 constructed and nine natural emergent wetlands in Ohio, USA. Our primary objective was to identify candidate indicators of wetland class (natural or constructed), based on measurements of soil properties and an index of vegetation integrity, that can be used to track the progress of constructed wetlands toward a natural state. The method of nearest shrunken centroids was used to find a subset of variables that would serve as the best classifiers of wetland class, and error rate was calculated using a five-fold cross-validation procedure. The shrunken differences of percent total organic carbon (% TOC) and percent dry weight of the soil exhibited the greatest distances from the overall centroid. Classification based on these two variables yielded a misclassification rate of 11% based on cross-validation. Our results indicate that % TOC and percent dry weight can be used as candidate indicators of the status of emergent, constructed wetlands in Ohio and for assessing the performance of mitigation. The method of nearest shrunken centroids has excellent potential for further applications in ecology.

Ohio↗
USGS2022

Trends in vegetation and height of the topographic surface in a tidal freshwater swamp experiencing rooting zone saltwater intrusion

A decrease in the ground surface height of coastal wetlands is of worldwide concern because of its relationship to peat loss, coastal carbon, and biodiversity in freshwater wetlands. We asked if it is possible to determine indicators of impending transitions of freshwater swamps to other coastal types by examining long-term changes in the environment and vegetation. In a tidal Taxodium distichum swamp in Hickory Point State Forest, Maryland, the topographic surface height (ground surface height) decreased by as much as 25.6 ± 2.2 to 50.8 ± 3.8 cm at two Surface Elevation Tables from 2015 to 2021 following salinity intrusion events related to hurricanes and offshore storms (e.g., Hurricane Melissa). In 2019, rooting zone salinity exceeded 5 ppt for >24.9 % of the time, with a maximum salinity level of 12.5 ppt. Tree growth of T. distichum trees declined and 60 % of these trees died along a 4 m wide × 125 m transect in 2014–2016. Root biomass and ground surface height decreased roughly in conjunction with a salinity pulse in the rooting zone during Hurricane Melissa in 2019. Saplings survived but T. distichum seedlings were uncommon and did not survive in the study area. Typha × glauca increased in cover (0.2 to 5.6 % cover plot −1 ) from 2014 to 2016 so a vegetation shift toward T. × glauca was apparent by 2021. This work captures a multi-year trend of decreasing ground surface height, tree growth and health, and freshwater status in the rooting zone that may be an indicator of impending vegetation transition.

Maryland↗
USGS2019

Integrated modeling reveals shifts in waterfowl population dynamics under climate change

1. Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife populations. The development of appropriate conservation strategies relies on reliable predictions of population responses to climate change, which require in-depth understanding of the complex relationships between climate and population dynamics through density dependent demographic processes. Integrated population models (IPMs) are a type of modeling approach that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data, providing opportunities to understand and predict population demography and dynamics under climate change. 2. In this study we developed dynamic N-mixture models for large scale population estimates, which became an important component of the IPM we used in data analysis. We then analyzed four decades (1974-2014) of Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) breeding population survey, band-recovery, and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. Our goals were to examine the complex relationships among climate, density dependent processes, waterfowl population demography and dynamics, identify the key demographic parameters that are sensitive to climate change and are influential to population growth, and forecast population responses to climate change. 3. Our results revealed the interactive effects of temperature and density dependent processes on Mallard recruitment and to a less extent apparent survival. We also found that recruitment explained more variance of population growth than apparent survival. We then forecasted a decrease in Mallard breeding population density in the Northern Prairie Potholes and an increase in Mallard breeding population density in the northern part of our study area, indicating potential shifts in Mallard population dynamics under future climate change. 4. Synthesis and applications Different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations under climate change. Strategies that facilitate recruitment are essential for high-density populations that are relatively vulnerable to climate change. By contrast, low-density populations are relatively resilient to climate change and their habitats may serve as future climate refugia. Adaptive management is essential for evaluating management consequences. Our modelling framework approach can be easily adapted for other species and thus has wide applications in ecology and conservation.

Ecography↗
USGS2022

Spatial and temporal patterns in Arctic mosquito abundance

Organisms that undergo a shift in ontogeny and habitat type often change their spatial distribution throughout their life cycle, but how this affects population dynamics remains poorly understood. We examined spatial and temporal patterns in Aedes nigripes abundance, a widespread univoltine Arctic mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae), hypothesizing that the spatial distribution of adults would be closely tied to aquatic habitat. We tracked adult densities of A. nigripes near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland using emergence traps, CO 2 -baited traps, and sweep-nets. In back-to-back years of sampling (2017 and 2018) we found two-fold variation in overall abundance. Adults were spatially patchy when first emerging from aquatic habitats but within a week, mean capture rates for host-seeking adult females were similar across locations, even in places far from larval habitat. Daily variation in mosquito captures was primarily explained by weather, with virtually no mosquito activity when temperatures averaged less than 8°C or wind speeds exceeded 6 m/s. Gravid females (3% of resting adults) were spatially patchy on the landscape, but not always in the same places where most adults emerged. The spatial distribution of adults is quickly uncoupled from the spatial distribution of larvae because A. nigripes females may disperse far from their natal habitats in search of a blood-meal and high-quality oviposition habitat. 8. This research highlights the value of studying ecological processes that act at disparate life stages for understanding the population biology of organisms with complex life cycles.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2010

Assessing conservation relevance of organism-environment relations using predicted changes in response variables

1. Organism–environment models are used widely in conservation. The degree to which they are useful for informing conservation decisions – the conservation relevance of these relations – is important because lack of relevance may lead to misapplication of scarce conservation resources or failure to resolve important conservation dilemmas. Even when models perform well based on model fit and predictive ability, conservation relevance of associations may not be clear without also knowing the magnitude and variability of predicted changes in response variables. 2. We introduce a method for evaluating the conservation relevance of organism–environment relations that employs confidence intervals for predicted changes in response variables. The confidence intervals are compared to a preselected magnitude of change that marks a threshold (trigger) for conservation action. To demonstrate the approach, we used a case study from the Chihuahuan Desert involving relations between avian richness and broad-scale patterns of shrubland. We considered relations for three winters and two spatial extents (1- and 2-km-radius areas) and compared predicted changes in richness to three thresholds (10%, 20% and 30% change). For each threshold, we examined 48 relations. 3. The method identified seven, four and zero conservation-relevant changes in mean richness for the 10%, 20% and 30% thresholds respectively. These changes were associated with major (20%) changes in shrubland cover, mean patch size, the coefficient of variation for patch size, or edge density but not with major changes in shrubland patch density. The relative rarity of conservation-relevant changes indicated that, overall, the relations had little practical value for informing conservation decisions about avian richness. 4. The approach we illustrate is appropriate for various response and predictor variables measured at any temporal or spatial scale. The method is broadly applicable across ecological environments, conservation objectives, types of statistical predictive models and levels of biological organization. By focusing on magnitudes of change that have practical significance, and by using the span of confidence intervals to incorporate uncertainty of predicted changes, the method can be used to help improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2005

Eradication of invasive Tamarix ramosissima along a desert stream increases native fish density

Spring ecosystems of the western United States have high conservation value, particularly because of the highly endemic, and often endangered, fauna that they support. Refuges now protect these habitats from many of the human impacts that once threatened them, but invasive species often persist. Invasive saltcedar is ubiquitous along streams, rivers, and spring ecosystems of the western United States, yet the impact of saltcedar invasion on these ecosystems, or ecosystem response to its removal, have rarely been quantified. Along Jackrabbit Spring, a springbrook in Nevada that supports populations of two endangered fish (Ash Meadows pupfish and Ash Meadows speckled dace) as well as several exotic aquatic consumers, we quantified the response of aquatic consumers to largescale saltcedar removal and identified the mechanism underlying consumer response to the removal. Clearing saltcedar from the riparian zone increased densities of native pupfish and exotic screw snails, but decreased the density of exotic crayfish. Positive effects of saltcedar removal on pupfish and snails occurred because saltcedar heavily shades the stream, greatly reducing the availability of algae for herbivores. This was confirmed by analyses of potential organic matter sources and consumer 13C: pupfish and snails, along with native dace and exotic mosquitofish, relied heavily on algae-derived carbon and not saltcedar-derived carbon. By contrast, crayfish ??13C values mirrored algae ??13C during summer, but in winter indicated reliance on allochthonous saltcedar litter that dominated organic inputs in saltcedar reaches and on algae-derived carbon where saltcedar was absent. The seasonal use of saltcedar by crayfish likely explains its negative response to saltcedar removal. Clearing saltcedar effectively restored the springbrook of Jackrabbit Spring to the conditions characteristic of native vegetation sites. Given the high conservation value of spring ecosystems and the potential conservation benefits of saltcedar removal that this research highlights, eradicating saltcedar from spring ecosystems of the western United States should clearly be a management priority. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2019

Predicting paleoclimate from compositional data using multivariate Gaussian process inverse prediction

Multivariate compositional count data arise in many applications including ecology, microbiology, genetics and paleoclimate. A frequent question in the analysis of multivariate compositional count data is what underlying values of a covariate(s) give rise to the observed composition. Learning the relationship between covariates and the compositional count allows for inverse prediction of unobserved covariates given compositional count observations. Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for modeling functional responses with respect to a covariate without assuming a functional form. Many scientific disciplines use Gaussian process approximations to improve prediction and make inference on latent processes and parameters. When prediction is desired on unobserved covariates given realizations of the response variable, this is called inverse prediction. Because inverse prediction is often mathematically and computationally challenging, predicting unobserved covariates often requires fitting models that are different from the hypothesized generative model. We present a novel computational framework that allows for efficient inverse prediction using a Gaussian process approximation to generative models. Our framework enables scientific learning about how the latent processes co-vary with respect to covariates while simultaneously providing predictions of missing covariates. The proposed framework is capable of efficiently exploring the high dimensional, multi-modal latent spaces that arise in the inverse problem. To demonstrate flexibility, we apply our method in a generalized linear model framework to predict latent climate states given multivariate count data. Based on cross-validation, our model has predictive skill competitive with current methods while simultaneously providing formal, statistical inference on the underlying community dynamics of the biological system previously not available.

Annals of Applied Statistics↗
USGS2003

Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers ( Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture ( p and r ) and recapture ( c ) probabilities, and the annual population size ( N ) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se ) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual survival rates and low mean life expectancy of Mountain Plovers, we conclude that sustainable local populations are currently maintained by annual rates of productivity greater than those for other ground-nesting birds.

Montana↗
USGS2004

Using larval trematodes that parasitize snails to evaluate a saltmarsh restoration project

We conducted a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study using larval digeneans infecting the California horn snail, Cerithidea californica, to evaluate the success of an ecological restoration project at Carpinteria Salt Marsh in California, USA. Digenean trematodes are parasites with complex life cycles requiring birds and other vertebrates as final hosts. We tested two hypotheses for prevalence and species richness of larval trematodes in C. californica: (1) prior to the restoration, sites to be restored would have lower trematode prevalence and species richness relative to unimpacted control sites, and (2) that these differences would diminish after restoration. The sites to be restored were initially degraded for trematode species. They had a mean trematode prevalence (12%) and species richness (4.5 species) that were lower than control sites (28% trematode prevalence and 7 species). Despite the differences in prevalence, the proportional representation of each trematode species in the total community was similar between sites to be restored and control sites. Over the six years following restoration, trematode prevalence nearly quadrupled at restored sites (43%) while the prevalence at control sites (26%) remained unchanged. In addition, species richness at restored sites doubled (9 species), while species richness at the control sites (7.8 species) did not change. Immediately after restoration, the relative abundance of trematode species using fishes as second intermediate hosts declined while those using molluscs as second intermediate hosts increased. Trematode communities at restored and control sites gradually returned to being similar. We interpret the increase in trematode prevalence and species richness at restored sites to be a direct consequence of changes in bird use of the restored habitat. This study demonstrates a new comparative technique for assessing wetlands, and while it does not supplant biotic surveys, it informs such taxonomic lists. Most importantly, it provides a synthetic quantification of the linkages among species in wetland food webs.

Ecological Applications↗