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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources

Changes in abiotic drivers of green sea urchin demographics following the loss of a keystone predator

Sea urchin population demographics can respond to changes in keystone species abundances, with the magnitude of these responses varying depending on environmental influences. In this study, sea urchin populations were surveyed across 15 Aleutian archipelago islands over a 30-year period to understand how patterns of sea urchin demography (density, biomass, and size structure) varied through different ecological regimes that were caused by changes in the abundance of sea otters, a keystone species in this system. To examine long-term changes in sea urchin demographics, four time periods across the recent decline of sea otters were examined: during sea otter presence (1987-1994), nearing absence at the end of the decline (1997-2000), 10 years postdecline (2008-2010), and 15-20 years following the loss of sea otters from the ecosystem (2014-2017). Our results show that when sea otters were broadly present, sea urchin demographics were generally similar across the archipelago, with few urchins that had large-sized bodies. During this time, bottom-up environmental controls were muted relative to top-down forces from keystone predation. However, as sea otters declined and remained absent from the system, abiotic factors became more influential on sea urchin biomass, density, and size structure. In particular, differences among island groups during these periods were correlated with variation in ocean temperature, bathymetric complexity, and habitat availability. Sea urchin recruitment also varied among island groups, corresponding to ecoregions delineated by oceanic passes across the archipelago. The functional extinction of sea otters revealed an increasing influence of abiotic forcing in the absence of top-down control. This study further highlights the importance of understanding how keystone predators regulate herbivore demographics.

Alaska

Survival estimates for the invasive American bullfrog

American bullfrogs ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) are significant invaders in many places and can negatively impact native species. Despite their impact and wide distribution, little is known about their demography. We used five years of capture mark-recapture data to estimate annual apparent survival of post-metamorphic bullfrogs in a population on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in their invaded range in Arizona, U.S.A. This population is a potential source of colonists into breeding ponds used by the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog ( L. chiricahuensis ). Results from robust-design Cormack-Jolly-Seber models suggested that survival of bullfrogs was influenced by sex and precipitation but not body condition. Survival was higher for females (mean = 0.37; 95% CI=0.15 , 0.72) than males (mean = 0.17; 95% CI=0.02 , 0.49), and declined with reduced annual precipitation (mean = −0.36, 95% CI = −2.09, 0.84). These survival estimates can be incorporated into models of population dynamics and to help predict spread of bullfrogs.

Arizona

Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: Piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) and prairie rivers

Background Many species are distributed as metapopulations in dynamic landscapes, where habitats change through space and time. Individuals locate habitat through dispersal, and the relationship between a species and landscape characteristics can have profound effects on population persistence. Despite the importance of connectivity in dynamic environments, few empirical studies have examined temporal variability in dispersal or its effect on metapopulation dynamics. In response to this knowledge gap, we studied the dispersal, demography, and viability of a metapopulation of an endangered, disturbance-dependent shorebird. We examined three subpopulations of piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) on the lower Platte and Missouri rivers from 2008–2013. High flow events from an upstream dam on the Missouri River in 2010 and 2011 allowed us to assess the effect of total habitat loss and the subsequent creation of new habitat associated with a large disturbance at one ‘natural’ study location. The other two sites within the metapopulation, which were maintained by anthropogenic activities (e.g., mining, development, habitat restoration), were largely unaffected by this disturbance, resulting in a controlled natural experiment. Results High flow events were associated with increased emigration, decreased immigration, and decreased survival in the subpopulation that experienced high flows. Following the high flow event, immigration into that subpopulation increased. Dispersal rates among subpopulations were negatively correlated with distance. The metapopulation had a low probability of extinction over 100 years (0%) under the current disturbance interval and associated dispersal and survival rates. However, persistence depended on relatively stable, human-created habitats, not the dynamic, natural habitat (47.7 % extinction probability for this subpopulation). Conclusions We found that functional connectivity, as measured by the rate of dispersal among subpopulations, increased as a result of the high flow event in our study metapopulation. Plovers also increased reproductive output following this event. Although the study metapopulation had a low overall probability of extinction, metapopulation persistence depended on anthropogenically created habitats that provided a small but stable source of nesting habitat and dispersers through time. However, all subpopulations remained small, even if persistent, making them individually vulnerable to extinction through stochastic events. Given the highly dynamic nature of habitat availability in this system, maintaining several subpopulations within the metapopulation and stable sources of habitat will be critical, and this species will likely remain conservation-reliant.

Nebraska

Evaluating density-weighted connectivity of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Glacier National Park with spatial capture–recapture models

Background Improved understanding of wildlife population connectivity among protected area networks can support effective planning for the persistence of wildlife populations in the face of land use and climate change. Common approaches to estimating connectivity often rely on small samples of individuals without considering the spatial structure of populations, leading to limited understanding of how individual movement links to demography and population connectivity. Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a framework to formally connect inference about individual movement, connectivity, and population density, but few studies have applied this approach to empirical data to support connectivity planning. Methods We used mark-recapture data collected from 924 genetic detections of 598 American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) in 2004 with SCR ecological distance models to simultaneously estimate density, landscape resistance to movement, and population connectivity in Glacier National Park northwest Montana, USA. We estimated density and movement parameters separately for males and females and used model estimates to calculate predicted density-weighted connectivity surfaces. Results Model results indicated that landscape structure influences black bear density and space use in Glacier. The mean density estimate was 16.08 bears/100 km 2 (95% CI 12.52–20.6) for females and 9.27 bears/100 km 2 (95% CI 7.70–11.14) for males. Density increased with forest cover for both sexes. For male black bears, density decreased at higher grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) densities. Drainages, valley bottoms, and riparian vegetation decreased estimates of landscape resistance to movement for male and female bears. For males, forest cover also decreased estimated resistance to movement, but a transportation corridor bisecting the study area strongly increased resistance to movement presenting a barrier to connectivity. Conclusions Density-weighed connectivity surfaces highlighted areas important for population connectivity that were distinct from areas with high potential connectivity. For black bears in Glacier and surrounding landscapes, consideration of both vegetation and valley topography could inform the placement of underpasses along the transportation corridor in areas characterized by both high population density and potential connectivity. Our study demonstrates that the SCR ecological distance model can provide biologically realistic, spatially explicit predictions to support movement connectivity planning across large landscapes.

Montana

An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu

Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database ( http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/ ) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link ( https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui ).

PLoS ONE

Implications of the circumpolar genetic structure of polar bears for their conservation in a rapidly warming Arctic

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1–3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear ( U. arctos ) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will allow polar nations to proactively adjust conservation actions to continuing decline in sea-ice habitat.

Arctic

Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation.

Amazon River, Mazagão watershed

Ungulate reproductive parameters track satellite observations of plant phenology across latitude and climatological regimes

The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus ) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004–2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season (“Start” and “Peak”, respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production, across latitude and changing climatological regimes. Practically, this demonstrates the potential for broad-scale modeling of couplings between climate, plant phenology, and animal populations using space-borne observations.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah

Quantifying the demographic cost of human-related mortality to a raptor population

Raptors are exposed to a wide variety of human-related mortality agents, and yet population-level effects are rarely quantified. Doing so requires modeling vital rates in the context of species life-history, behavior, and population dynamics theory. In this paper, we explore the details of such an analysis by focusing on the demography of a resident, tree-nesting population of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in the vicinity of an extensive (142 km 2 ) windfarm in California. During 1994–2000, we tracked the fates of >250 radio-marked individuals of four life-stages and conducted five annual surveys of territory occupancy and reproduction. Collisions with wind turbines accounted for 41% of 88 uncensored fatalities, most of which were subadults and nonbreeding adults (floaters). A consistent overall male preponderance in the population meant that females were the limiting sex in this territorial, monogamous species. Estimates of potential population growth rate and associated variance indicated a stable breeding population, but one for which any further decrease in vital rates would require immigrant floaters to fill territory vacancies. Occupancy surveys 5 and 13 years later (2005 and 2013) showed that the nesting population remained intact, and no upward trend was apparent in the proportion of subadult eagles as pair members, a condition that would have suggested a deficit of adult replacements. However, the number of golden eagle pairs required to support windfarm mortality was large. We estimated that the entire annual reproductive output of 216–255 breeding pairs would have been necessary to support published estimates of 55–65 turbine blade-strike fatalities per year. Although the vital rates forming the basis for these calculations may have changed since the data were collected, our approach should be useful for gaining a clearer understanding of how anthropogenic mortality affects the health of raptor populations, particularly those species with delayed maturity and naturally low reproductive rates.

PLoS ONE

Combining genetic and demographic monitoring better informs conservation of an endangered urban snake

Conversion and fragmentation of wildlife habitat often leads to smaller and isolated populations and can reduce a species’ ability to disperse across the landscape. As a consequence, genetic drift can quickly lower genetic variation and increase vulnerability to extirpation. For species of conservation concern, quantification of population size and connectivity can clarify the influence of genetic drift in local populations and provides important information for conservation management and recovery strategies. Here, we used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data and capture-mark-recapture methods to evaluate the genetic diversity and demography within seven focal sites of the endangered San Francisco gartersnake ( Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia ), a species affected by alteration and isolation of wetland habitats throughout its distribution. The primary goals were to determine the population structure and degree of genetic isolation among T . s . tetrataenia populations and estimate effective size and population abundance within sites to better understand the present and future importance of genetic drift. We also used temporally sampled datasets to examine the magnitude of genetic change over time. We found moderate population genetic structure throughout the San Francisco Peninsula that partitions sites into northern and southern regional clusters. Point estimates of both effective size and population abundance were generally small (≤ 100) for a majority of the sites, and estimates were particularly low in the northern populations. Genetic analyses of temporal datasets indicated an increase in genetic differentiation, especially for the most geographically isolated sites, and decreased genetic diversity over time in at least one site (Pacifica). Our results suggest that drift-mediated processes as a function of small population size and reduced connectivity from neighboring populations may decrease diversity and increase differentiation. Improving genetic diversity and connectivity among T . s . tetrataenia populations could promote persistence of this endangered snake.

California

Comparing reintroduction strategies for the endangered San Francisco gartersnake (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) using demographic models

For endangered species persisting in a few populations, reintroductions to unoccupied habitat are a popular conservation action to increase viability in the long term. Identifying the reintroduction strategy that is most likely to result in viable founder and donor populations is essential to optimally use resources available for conservation. The San Francisco gartersnake ( Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia ) is an endangered sub-species that persists in a small number of populations in a highly urbanized region of California. Most of the extant populations of San Francisco gartersnakes have low adult abundance and effective population size, heightening the need for establishment of more populations for insurance against the risk of extinction. We used simulations from demographic models to project the probability of quasi-extinction for reintroduced populations of San Francisco gartersnakes based on the release of neonate, juvenile, adult, or mixed-age propagules. Our simulation results indicated that the release of head-started juveniles resulted in the greatest viability of reintroduced populations, and that releases would need to continue for at least 15 years to ensure a low probability of quasi-extinction. Releasing captive-bred juvenile snakes would also have less effect on the viability of the donor population, compared to strategies that require more adult snakes to be removed from the donor population for translocation. Our models focus on snake demography, but the genetic makeup of donor, captive, and reintroduced populations will also be a major concern for any proposed reintroduction plan. This study demonstrates how modeling can be used to inform reintroduction strategies for highly imperiled species.

PLoS ONE

Effects of telemetry collars on two free-roaming feral equid species

There are two species of free-roaming feral equids in North America: horses ( Equus caballus ) and donkeys or “burros” ( E . asinus ). Both species were introduced as domestic animals to North America in the early 1500s and currently inhabit rangelands across the western United States, Canada, and all continents except Antarctica. Despite their global distribution, little is known about their fine scale spatial ecology. Contemporary research tools to assess space use include global positioning system (GPS) tracking collars, but older models were problematic due to stiff collar belting causing poor fit. We tested modern designs of GPS collars on n = 105 horses and n = 60 burros for 4 years in five populations (3 horse, 2 burro) across the western United States, to assess whether collars posed welfare risks to horses or burros. We found no difference in survival of collared versus uncollared mares and jennies, and no difference in survival of their foals. In 4036 of 4307 observations for horses (93.7%) and 2115 of 2258 observations for burros (93.6%), collars were observed symmetrical, maintaining proper fit on the neck. Fur effects from collars (sweaty neck, indented fur, broken fur) were seen in 3% of horse observations and 25% of burro observations. Superficial effects (chafes and marks on skin surface) were seen in 2% of horse observations and 11% of burro observations; no severe effects from collars were seen. Body condition was not affected by collars; mean body condition of collared horses was 4.70 ± 0.54 (mean ± s.d) and 4.71 ± 0.65 for collared burros. Behavior results indicated minimal effects; collared horses stood slightly more than uncollared, and collared burros stood and foraged more in one population, but not in the other. For 6.3% of observations of horses and 6.4% of observations of burros, we found an effect of time wearing a collar on the cumulative sum of fur effects which increased over time (burros: r s = 0.87, P = <0.0001; horses: r s = 0.31, P = 0.002). Burros also showed an increase over time in the number of superficial effects, but horses did not. Collars occasionally moved into the wrong position, shifting forward over the ears; we observed this on 19 horses and 1 burro. Of those, most collars went over the ears in summer ( n = 12). All collars were equipped with a remote release mechanism as well as a timed-release mechanism for redundancy, thus removed when observed in wrong position to avoid rubbing or discomfort. Our finding of no consequential physical effects in 98% of horse observations, and 89% of burro observations suggests the consequences of collars on free-roaming equid welfare and survival is biologically insignificant, although collars should be monitored regularly and continue to be equipped with a remote release mechanism to remove a collar if needed. With frequent welfare-driven, visual monitoring, collaring of free-roaming equids can be a safe and useful tool to increase our understanding of their spatial ecology, demography, habitat use, behavior, and interactions with other wildlife.

Arizona, Utah, Wyoming

Multistate models for estimation of survival and reproduction in the Grey-headed Albatross ( Thalassarche chrysostoma )

Reliable information on demography is necessary for conservation of albatrosses, the most threatened family of pelagic birds. Albatross survival has been estimated using mark-recapture data and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. However, albatross exhibit skipped breeding, violating assumptions of the CJS model. Multistate modeling integrating unobservable states is a promising tool for such situations. We applied multistate models to data on Grey-headed Albatross ( Talassarche chrysostoma ) to evaluate model performance and describe demographic patterns. These included a multistate equivalent of the CJS model (MS-2), including successful and failed breeding states and ignoring temporary emigration, and three versions of a four-state multistate model that accounts for temporary emigration by integrating unobservable states: a model (MS-4) with one sample per breeding season, a robust design model (RDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and geographic closure within the season, and an open robust design model (ORDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and staggered entry and exit of animals within the season. Survival estimates from the MS-2 model were higher than those from the MS-4 model, which resulted in apparent percent relative bias averaging 2.2%. The ORDMS-4 model was more appropriate than the RDMS-4 model, given that staggered entry and exit occurred. Annual survival probability for Greyheaded Albatross at Marion Island was 0.951 ± 0.006 (SE), and the probability of skipped breeding in a subsequent year averaged 0.938 for successful and 0.163 for failed breeders. We recommend that multistate models with unobservable states, combined with robust-design sampling, be used in studies of species that exhibit temporary emigration.

The Auk

South Coast bioregion

This chapter investigates the South Coast bioregion in Southern California. There are two broad ecological zones: the coastal valleys and foothill zone and the montane zone. Grasslands are resilient to a wide range of fire frequencies. Fire regimes in big-cone Douglas-fir forests vary spatially and temporally. Lodgepole pine forests are at the highest end of the elevational gradient for forests exposed to fire on any regular basis. Landscape scale prescription burning on a rotational basis is a questionable management strategy in this bioregion. A broader application of fuel manipulations may be warranted for managing fires that occur under mild weather conditions and are not wind-driven events. Regardless of how climate affects fuels, based on current patterns of burning it appears that throughout this region the primary threat to future fire regimes is more tied to future patterns of human demography than to climate.

California

Combining multiple sources of data to inform conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations

Conservation of small populations is often based on limited data from spatially and temporally restricted studies, resulting in management actions based on an incomplete assessment of the population drivers. If fluctuations in abundance are related to changes in weather, proper management is especially important, because extreme weather events could disproportionately affect population abundance. Conservation assessments, especially for vulnerable populations, are aided by a knowledge of how extreme events influence population status and trends. Although important for conservation efforts, data may be limited for small or vulnerable populations. Integrated population models maximize information from various sources of data to yield population estimates that fully incorporate uncertainty from multiple data sources while allowing for the explicit incorporation of environmental covariates of interest. Our goal was to assess the relative influence of population drivers for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) in the core of its range, western and southern Kansas, USA. We used data from roadside lek count surveys, nest monitoring surveys, and survival data from telemetry monitoring combined with climate (Palmer drought severity index) data in an integrated population model. Our results indicate that variability in population growth rate was most influenced by variability in juvenile survival. The Palmer drought severity index had no measurable direct effects on adult survival or mean number of offspring per female; however, there were declines in population growth rate following severe drought. Because declines in population growth rate occurred at a broad spatial scale, declines in response to drought were likely due to decreases in chick and juvenile survival rather than emigration outside of the study area. Overall, our model highlights the importance of accounting for environmental and demographic sources of variability, and provides a thorough method for simultaneously evaluating population demography in response to long-term climate effects.

The Auk

Growth, survival, longevity, and population size of the Big Mouth Cave salamander ( Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides ) from the type locality in Grundy County, Tennessee, USA

Salamander species that live entirely in subterranean habitats have evolved adaptations that allow them to cope with perpetual darkness and limited energy resources. We conducted a 26-month mark&ndash;recapture study to better understand the individual growth and demography of a population of the Big Mouth Cave Salamander ( Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides ). We employed a growth model to estimate growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and longevity, and an open population model to estimate population size, density, detectability, and survival rates. Furthermore, we examined cover use and evidence of potential predation. Individuals probably reach sexual maturity in 3&ndash;5 years and live at least nine years. Survival rates were generally high (>75%) but declined during the study. More than 30% of captured salamanders had regenerating tails or tail damage, which presumably represent predation attempts by conspecifics or crayfishes. Most salamanders (>90%) were found under cover (e.g., rocks, trash, decaying plant material). Based on 11 surveys during the study, population size estimates ranged from 21 to 104 individuals in the ca. 710 m 2 study area. Previous surveys indicated that this population experienced a significant decline from the early 1970s through the 1990s, perhaps related to silvicultural and agricultural practices. However, our data suggest that this population has either recovered or stabilized during the past 20 years. Differences in relative abundance between early surveys and our survey could be associated with differences in survey methods or sampling conditions rather than an increase in population size. Regardless, our study demonstrates that this population is larger than previously thought and is in no immediate risk of extirpation, though it does appear to exhibit higher rates of predation than expected for a species believed to be an apex predator of subterranean food webs.

Tennessee

Redistribution and growth of the Caspian Tern population in the Pacific Coast region of North America, 1981-2000

We examined nesting distribution and demography of the Pacific Coast population of Caspian Terns ( Sterna caspia ) using breeding records and band recoveries spanning two decades since the first population assessment. Since 1980, population size has more than doubled to about 12 900 pairs, yet the proportion of the population nesting at inland (18%) versus coastal sites (82%) has remained constant. Although the breeding range of the Pacific Coast population has expanded northward into Alaska and farther south in Mexico, there was no net latitudinal shift in the distribution of breeding pairs or new colonies. The distribution of breeding birds among areas changed dramatically, however, with 69% of breeding terns now nesting in Oregon (primarily in the Columbia River estuary) versus 4% during the late 1970s. During the past 20 years, there has continued to be a greater proportion of Caspian Terns breeding at anthropogenic sites compared to natural sites. Estimated annual survival rates for hatch-year and after-third-year birds during 1981-1998 were greater than during 1955-1980, consistent with the higher rate of population increase in recent decades. Fecundity required to maintain a stable population ( λ = 1 ) was estimated at 0.32–0.74 fledglings pair −1 , depending on band recovery probabilities for sub-adults. Caspian Terns readily moved among breeding sites and rapidly colonized new areas; however, a greater concentration of breeding Caspian Terns among fewer colonies in response to anthropogenic factors is an important conservation concern for this species.

Condor

The persistent problem of lead poisoning in birds from ammunition and fishing tackle

Lead (Pb) is a metabolic poison that can negatively influence biological processes, leading to illness and mortality across a large spectrum of North American avifauna (>120 species) and other organisms. Pb poisoning can result from numerous sources, including ingestion of bullet fragments and shot pellets left in animal carcasses, spent ammunition left in the field, lost fishing tackle, Pb-based paints, large-scale mining, and Pb smelting activities. Although Pb shot has been banned for waterfowl hunting in the United States (since 1991) and Canada (since 1999), Pb exposure remains a problem for many avian species. Despite a large body of scientific literature on exposure to Pb and its toxicological effects on birds, controversy still exists regarding its impacts at a population level. We explore these issues and highlight areas in need of investigation: (1) variation in sensitivity to Pb exposure among bird species; (2) spatial extent and sources of Pb contamination in habitats in relation to bird exposure in those same locations; and (3) interactions between avian Pb exposure and other landscape-level stressors that synergistically affect bird demography. We explore multiple paths taken to reduce Pb exposure in birds that (1) recognize common ground among a range of affected interests; (2) have been applied at local to national scales; and (3) engage governmental agencies, interest groups, and professional societies to communicate the impacts of Pb ammunition and fishing tackle, and to describe approaches for reducing their availability to birds. As they have in previous times, users of fish and wildlife will play a key role in resolving the Pb poisoning issue.

The Condor