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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

Time scales of circulation and mixing processes of San Francisco Bay waters

Conceptual models for tidal period and low-frequency variations in sea level, currents, and mixing processes in the northern and southern reaches of San Francisco Bay describe the contrasting characteristics and dissimilar processes and rates in these embayments: The northern reach is a partially mixed estuary whereas the southern reach (South Bay) is a tidally oscillating lagoon with density-driven exchanges with the northern reach. The mixed semidiurnal tides are mixtures of progressive and standing waves. The relatively simple oscillations in South Bay are nearly standing waves, with energy propagating down the channels and dispersing into the broad shoal areas. The tides of the northern reach have the general properties of a progressive wave but are altered at the constriction of the embayments and gradually change in an upstream direction to a mixture of progressive and standing waves. The spring and neap variations of the tides are pronounced and cause fortnightly varying tidal currents that affect mixing and salinity stratification in the water column. Wind stress on the water surface, freshwater inflow, and tidal currents interacting with the complex bay configuration are the major local forcing mechanisms creating low-frequency variations in sea level and currents. These local forcing mechanisms drive the residual flows which, with tidal diffusion, control the water-replacement rates in the estuary. In the northern reach, the longitudinal density gradient drives an estuarine circulation in the channels, and the spatial variation in tidal amplitude creates a tidally-driven residual circulation. In contrast, South Bay exhibits a balance between wind-driven circulation and tidally-driven residual circulation for most of the year. During winter, however, there can be sufficient density variations to drive multilayer (2 to 3) flows in the channel of South Bay. Mixing models (that include both diffusive and dispersive processes) are based on time scales associated with salt variations at the boundaries and those associated with the local forcing mechanisms, while the spatial scales of variations are dependent upon the configuration of the embayments. In the northern reach, where the estuarine circulation is strong, the salt flux is carried by the mean advection of the mean salt field. Where large salinity gradients are present, the tidal correlation part of the salt flux is of the same order as the advective part. Our knowledge of mixing and exchange rates in South Bay is poor. As this embayment is nearly isohaline, the salt flux is dominated entirely by the mean advection of the mean salt field. During and after peaks in river discharge, water mixing becomes more dynamic, with a strong density-driven current creating a net exchange of both water mass and salt. These exchanges are stronger during neap tides. Residence times of the water masses vary seasonally and differ between reaches. In the northern reach, residence times are on the order of days for high winter river discharge and of months for summer periods. The residence times for South Bay are fairly long (on the order of several months) during summer, and typically shorter (less than a month) during winter when density-driven exchanges occur.

Hydrobiologia↗

Processing and attenuation of noise in deep seismic-reflection data from the Gulf of Maine

The U.S. Geological Survey deep crustal studies reflection profile across the Gulf of Maine off southeastern New England was affected by three sources of noise: side-scattered noise, multiples, and 20-Hz whale sounds. The special processing most effective in minimizing this noise consisted of a combination of frequency-wavenumber (F-K) filtering, predictive deconvolution, and spectral whitening, each applied in the shot domain (prestack). Application of the F-K filter to remove side-scatter noise in the poststack domain resulted in a much poorer quality profile. The prestack noise suppression processing techniques resulted in a reflection profile with good signal-to-noise ratios and reliable strong reflections, especially at depths equivalent to the lower crust (24-34 km). Certain geologic features, such as a buried rift basin and a crustal fault are resolved much better within the upper crust after this processing. Finite difference migration of these data using realistic velocities produced excellent results. Migration was essential to distinguish between abundant dipping and subhorizontal reflections in the lower crust as well as to show an essentially transparent upper mantle. ?? 1989 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Marine Geophysical Research↗

Spatial analysis of extension fracture systems: A process modeling approach

Little consensus exists on how best to analyze natural fracture spacings and their sequences. Field measurements and analyses published in geotechnical literature imply fracture processes radically different from those assumed by theoretical structural geologists. The approach adopted in this paper recognizes that disruption of rock layers by layer-parallel extension results in two spacing distributions, one representing layer-fragment lengths and another separation distances between fragments. These two distributions and their sequences reflect mechanics and history of fracture and separation. Such distributions and sequences, represented by a 2 ?? n matrix of lengthsL, can be analyzed using a method that is history sensitive and which yields also a scalar estimate of bulk extension, e (L). The method is illustrated by a series of Monte Carlo experiments representing a variety of fracture-and-separation processes, each with distinct implications for extension history. Resulting distributions of e (L)are process-specific, suggesting that the inverse problem of deducing fracture-and-separation history from final structure may be tractable. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

Dynamic similarity in erosional processes

A study is made of the dynamic similarity conditions obtaining in a variety of erosional processes. The pertinent equations for each type of process are written in dimensionless form; the similarity conditions can then easily be deduced. The processes treated are: raindrop action, slope evolution and river erosion.

Geofisica Pura e Applicata↗

Comparison of the basin-scale effect of dredging operations and natural estuarine processes on suspended sediment concentration

Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data from San Pablo Bay, California, were analyzed to compare the basin-scale effect of dredging and disposal of dredged material (dredging operations) and natural estuarine processes. The analysis used twelve 3-wk to 5-wk periods of mid-depth and near-bottom SSC data collected at Point San Pablo every 15 min from 1993-1998. Point San Pablo is within a tidal excursion of a dredged-material disposal site. The SSC data were compared to dredging volume, Julian day, and hydrodynamic and meteorological variables that could affect SSC. Kendall's ??, Spearman's ??, and weighted (by the fraction of valid data in each period) Spearman's ??w correlation coefficients of the variables indicated which variables were significantly correlated with SSC. Wind-wave resuspension had the greatest effect on SSC. Median water-surface elevation was the primary factor affecting mid-depth SSC. Greater depths inhibit wind-wave resuspension of bottom sediment and indicate greater influence of less turbid water from down estuary. Seasonal variability in the supply of erodible sediment is the primary factor affecting near-bottom SSC. Natural physical processes in San Pablo Bay are more areally extensive, of equal or longer duration, and as frequent as dredging operations (when occurring), and they affect SSC at the tidal time scale. Natural processes control SSC at Point San Pablo even when dredging operations are occurring.

California↗

Nutrient addition differentially affects ecological processes of Avicennia germinans in nitrogen versus phosphorus limited mangrove ecosystems

Nutrient over-enrichment is a major threat to marine environments, but system-specific attributes of coastal ecosystems may result in differences in their sensitivity and susceptibility to eutrophication. We used fertilization experiments in nitrogen (N)- and phosphorus (P)-limited mangrove forests to test the hypothesis that alleviating different kinds of nutrient limitation may have different effects on ecosystem structure and function in natural systems. We compared a broad range of ecological processes to determine if these systems have different thresholds where shifts might occur in nutrient limitation. Growth responses indicated N limitation in Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) forests in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida, and P limitation at Twin Cays, Belize. When nutrient deficiency was relieved, A. germinans grew out of its stunted form by increasing wood relative to leaf biomass and shoot length relative to lateral growth. At the P-limited site, P enrichment (+P) increased specific leaf area, N resorption, and P uptake, but had no effect on P resorption. At the N-limited site, +N increased both N and P resorption, but did not alter biomass allocation. Herbivory was greater at the P-limited site and was unaffected by +P, whereas +N led to increased herbivory at the N-limited site. The responses to nutrient enrichment depended on the ecological process and limiting nutrient and suggested that N- versus P-limited mangroves do have different thresholds. +P had a greater effect on more ecological processes at Twin Cays than did +N at the IRL, which indicated that the P-limited site was more sensitive to nutrient loading. Because of this sensitivity, eutrophication is more likely to cause a shift in nutrient limitation at P-limited Twin Cays than N-limited IRL. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems↗

Nutrient vectors and riparian processing: A review with special reference to African semiarid savanna ecosystems

This review article describes vectors for nitrogen and phosphorus delivery to riparian zones in semiarid African savannas, the processing of nutrients in the riparian zone and the effect of disturbance on these processes. Semiarid savannas exhibit sharp seasonality, complex hillslope hydrology and high spatial heterogeneity, all of which ultimately impact nutrient fluxes between riparian, upland and aquatic environments. Our review shows that strong environmental drivers such as fire and herbivory enhance nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment transport to lower slope positions by shaping vegetative patterns. These vectors differ significantly from other arid and semiarid ecosystems, and from mesic ecosystems where the impact of fire and herbivory are less pronounced and less predictable. Also unique is the presence of sodic soils in certain hillslopes, which substantially alters hydrological flowpaths and may act as a trap where nitrogen is immobilized while sediment and phosphorus transport is enhanced. Nutrients and sediments are also deposited in the riparian zone during seasonal, intermittent floods while, during the dry season, subsurface movement of water from the stream into riparian soils and vegetation further enrich riparian zones with nutrients. As is found in mesic ecosystems, nutrients are immobilized in semiarid riparian corridors through microbial and plant uptake, whereas dissimilatory processes such as denitrification may be important where labile nitrogen and carbon are in adequate supply and physical conditions are suitable-such as in seeps, wallows created by animals, ephemeral wetlands and stream edges. Interaction between temporal hydrologic connectivity and spatial heterogeneity are disrupted by disturbances such as large floods and extended droughts, which may convert certain riparian patches from sinks to sources for nitrogen and phosphorus. In the face of increasing anthropogenic pressure, the scientific challenges are to provide a basic understanding of riparian biogeochemistry in semiarid African savannas to adequately address the temporal and spatial impact of disturbances, and to apply this knowledge to better regional land and water management. An integrated, multidisciplinary approach applied in protected as well as human-disturbed ecosystems in southern Africa is essential for underpinning a strong environmental basis for sustainable human-related expansion.

Ecosystems↗

The role of surface and subsurface processes in keeping pace with sea level rise in intertidal wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Increases in the elevation of the soil surfaces of mangroves and salt marshes are key to the maintenance of these habitats with accelerating sea level rise. Understanding the processes that give rise to increases in soil surface elevation provides science for management of landscapes for sustainable coastal wetlands. Here, we tested whether the soil surface elevation of mangroves and salt marshes in Moreton Bay is keeping up with local rates of sea level rise (2.358 mm y -1 ) and whether accretion on the soil surface was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise. We found variability in surface elevation gains, with sandy areas in the eastern bay having the highest surface elevation gains in both mangrove and salt marsh (5.9 and 1.9 mm y -1 ) whereas in the muddier western bay rates of surface elevation gain were lower (1.4 and -0.3 mm y -1 in mangrove and salt marsh, respectively). Both sides of the bay had similar rates of surface accretion (~7–9 mm y -1 in the mangrove and 1–3 mm y -1 in the salt marsh), but mangrove soils in the western bay were subsiding at a rate of approximately 8 mm y -1 , possibly due to compaction of organic sediments. Over the study surface elevation increments were sensitive to position in the intertidal zone (higher when lower in the intertidal) and also to variation in mean sea level (higher at high sea level). Although surface accretion was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise in the eastern bay, subsidence largely negated gains made through surface accretion in the western bay indicating a high vulnerability to sea level rise in these forests.

Queensland↗

Hydromechanical coupling in geologic processes

Earth's porous crust and the fluids within it are intimately linked through their mechanical effects on each other. This paper presents an overview of such "hydromechanical" coupling and examines current understanding of its role in geologic processes. An outline of the theory of hydromechanics and rheological models for geologic deformation is included to place various analytical approaches in proper context and to provide an introduction to this broad topic for nonspecialists. Effects of hydromechanical coupling are ubiquitous in geology, and can be local and short-lived or regional and very long-lived. Phenomena such as deposition and erosion, tectonism, seismicity, earth tides, and barometric loading produce strains that tend to alter fluid pressure. Resulting pressure perturbations can be dramatic, and many so-called "anomalous" pressures appear to have been created in this manner. The effects of fluid pressure on crustal mechanics are also profound. Geologic media deform and fail largely in response to effective stress, or total stress minus fluid pressure. As a result, fluid pressures control compaction, decompaction, and other types of deformation, as well as jointing, shear failure, and shear slippage, including events that generate earthquakes. By controlling deformation and failure, fluid pressures also regulate states of stress in the upper crust. Advances in the last 80 years, including theories of consolidation, transient groundwater flow, and poroelasticity, have been synthesized into a reasonably complete conceptual framework for understanding and describing hydromechanical coupling. Full coupling in two or three dimensions is described using force balance equations for deformation coupled with a mass conservation equation for fluid flow. Fully coupled analyses allow hypothesis testing and conceptual model development. However, rigorous application of full coupling is often difficult because (1) the rheological behavior of geologic media is complex and poorly understood and (2) the architecture, mechanical properties and boundary conditions, and deformation history of most geologic systems are not well known. Much of what is known about hydromechanical processes in geologic systems is derived from simpler analyses that ignore certain aspects of solid-fluid coupling. The simplifications introduce error, but more complete analyses usually are not warranted. Hydromechanical analyses should thus be interpreted judiciously, with an appreciation for their limitations. Innovative approaches to hydromechanical modeling and obtaining critical data may circumvent some current limitations and provide answers to remaining questions about crustal processes and fluid behavior in the crust.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Combined effects of biological control of an invasive shrub and fluvial processes on riparian vegetation dynamics

Plant community responses to biocontrol of invasive plants are understudied, despite the strong influence of the composition of replacement vegetation on ecosystem functions and services. We studied the vegetation response to a folivore beetle ( Diorhabda genus, Coleoptera) that has been introduced along southwestern US river valleys to control the invasion of non-native shrubs in the genus Tamarix (Tamaricaceae). We collected detailed plant compositional and environmental data during four different surveys over 7 years (2010–2017), including two surveys prior to when substantial beetle-induced dieback occurred in summer 2012, along the lower Virgin River, Nevada. The study river was of special interest because it is one of only a few largely unregulated rivers in the region, and a large flood of 40-year return period occurred between the first and second surveys, allowing us to study the combined effects of fluvial processes, which typically drive riparian plant community assembly, and biocontrol. Vegetation trajectories differed as a function of the dominant geomorphological process. Tamarix cover declined an average of 75% and was replaced by the native shrub Pluchea sericea as the new dominant species in the floodplain, especially where sediment deposition predominated. Following deposition, and especially erosion, opportunistic native herbs, Tamarix seedlings, and noxious weeds colonized the understory layer but did not increase in cover over time. Stands of the native shrub Salix exigua , a desirable replacement species following Tamarix control, only increased slightly and remained subordinate in the floodplain. Overall, our results showed that, by successfully controlling the target non-native plant, a biocontrol agent can substantially modify the replacement plant communities in a riparian system, but that fluvial processes also strongly influence the resulting communities.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

Active geologic processes in Barrow Canyon, northeast Chukchi Sea

Circulation patterns on the shelf and at the shelf break appear to dominate the Barrow Canyon system. The canyon's shelf portion underlies and is maintained by the Alaska Coastal Current (A.C.C.), which flows northeastward along the coast toward the northeast corner of the broad Chukchi Sea. Offshelf and onshelf advective processes are indicated by oceanographic measurements of other workers. These advective processes may play an important role in the production of bedforms that are found near the canyon head as well as in processes of erosion or non-deposition in the deeper canyon itself. Coarse sediments recovered from the canyon axis at 400 to 570 m indicate that there is presently significant flow along the canyon. The canyon hooks left at a point north of Point Barrow where the A.C.C. loses its coastal constriction. The left hook, as well as preferential west-wall erosion, continues down to the abyssal plain of the Canada Basin at 3800 m. A possible explanation for the preferential west-wall erosion along the canyon, at least for the upper few hundred meters, is that the occasional upwelling events, which cause nutrient-rich water to flow along the west wall would in turn cause larger populations of burrowing organisms to live there than on the east wall, and that these organisms cause high rates of bioerosion. This hypothesis assumes that the dominant factor in the canyon's erosion is biological activity, not current velocity. Sedimentary bedforms consisting of waves and furrows are formed in soft mud in a region on the shelf west of the canyon head; their presence there perhaps reflects: (a) the supply of fine suspended sediments delivered by the A.C.C. from sources to the south, probably the Yukon and other rivers draining northwestern Alaska; and (b) the westward transport of these suspended sediments by the prevailing Beaufort Gyre which flows along the outer shelf.

Alaska↗

Riparian vegetation and fluvial geomorphic processes

Riparian vegetation and fluvial-geomorphic processes and landforms are intimately connected parts of the bottomland landscape. Relations among vegetation, processes, and landforms are described here for representative streams of four areas of the United States: high-gradient streams of the humid east, coastal-plain streams. Great Plains streams, and stream channels of the southwestern United States. Vegetation patterns suggest that species distributions in the humid east are largely controlled by frequency, duration, and intensity of floods. Along channelized streams, vegetation distribution is largely controlled by variation in fluvial geomorphic processes (cycles of degradation and aggradation) in response to increases in channel gradient associated with channelization. Similarly, riparian vegetation of Great Plains streams may be controlled by fluxes in sediment deposition and erosion along braided streams. Patterns of riparian vegetation in semi-arid regions may be most closely related to patterns of water availability, unlike most other streams in more humid environments. Channel-equilibrium conditions control stability of the coincident fluvial landform and attendant vegetation pattern throughout the continent. In most situations, riparian-vegetation patterns are indicative of specific landforms and, thus, of ambient hydrogeomorphic conditions.

Geomorphology↗

Making ‘chemical cocktails’ – Evolution of urban geochemical processes across the periodic table of elements

Urbanization contributes to the formation of novel elemental combinations and signatures in terrestrial and aquatic watersheds, also known as ‘chemical cocktails.’ The composition of chemical cocktails evolves across space and time due to: (1) elevated concentrations from anthropogenic sources, (2) accelerated weathering and corrosion of the built environment, (3) increased drainage density and intensification of urban water conveyance systems, and (4) enhanced rates of geochemical transformations due to changes in temperature, ionic strength, pH, and redox potentials. Characterizing chemical cocktails and underlying geochemical processes is necessary for: (1) tracking pollution sources using complex chemical mixtures instead of individual elements or compounds; (2) developing new strategies for co-managing groups of contaminants; (3) identifying proxies for predicting transport of chemical mixtures using continuous sensor data; and (4) determining whether interactive effects of chemical cocktails produce ecosystem-scale impacts greater than the sum of individual chemical stressors. First, we discuss some unique urban geochemical processes which form chemical cocktails, such as urban soil formation, human-accelerated weathering, urban acidification-alkalinization, and Freshwater Salinization Syndrome. Second, we review and synthesize global patterns in concentrations of major ions, carbon and nutrients, and trace elements in urban streams across different world regions and make comparisons with reference conditions. In addition to our global analysis, we highlight examples from watersheds in the Baltimore-Washington DC area, USA, which show increased transport of major ions, trace metals, and nutrients across streams draining a well-defined land-use gradient. Urbanization increased the concentrations of multiple major and trace elements in streams draining human-dominated watersheds compared to reference conditions. Chemical cocktails of major and trace elements were formed over diurnal cycles coinciding with changes in streamflow, dissolved oxygen, pH, and other variables measured by high-frequency sensors. Some chemical cocktails of major and trace elements were also significantly related to specific conductance (p < 0.05), which can be measured by sensors. Concentrations of major and trace elements increased, peaked, or decreased longitudinally along streams as watershed urbanization increased, which is consistent with distinct shifts in chemical mixtures upstream and downstream of other major cities in the world. Our global analysis of urban streams shows that concentrations of multiple elements along the periodic table significantly increase when compared with reference conditions. Furthermore, similar biogeochemical patterns and processes can be grouped among distinct mixtures of elements of major ions, dissolved organic matter, nutrients, and trace elements as chemical cocktails. Chemical cocktails form in urban waters over diurnal cycles, decades, and throughout drainage basins. We conclude our global review and synthesis by proposing strategies for monitoring and managing chemical cocktails using source control, ecosystem restoration, and green infrastructure. We discuss future research directions applying the watershed chemical cocktail approach to diagnose and manage environmental problems. Ultimately, a chemical cocktail approach targeting sources, transport, and transformations of different and distinct elemental combinations is beneficial to more holistically monitor and manage the emerging impacts of chemical mixtures in the world's fresh waters.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Computer algorithm for analyzing and processing borehole strainmeter data

The newly installed Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) strainmeters record signals from tectonic activity, Earth tides, and atmospheric pressure. Important information about tectonic processes may occur at amplitudes at and below tidal strains and pressure loading. If incorrect assumptions are made regarding the background noise in the strain data, then the estimates of tectonic signal amplitudes may be incorrect. Furthermore, the use of simplifying assumptions that data are uncorrelated can lead to incorrect results and pressure loading and tides may not be completely removed from the raw data. Instead, any algorithm used to process strainmeter data must incorporate the strong temporal correlations that are inherent with these data. The technique described here uses least squares but employs data covariance that describes the temporal correlation of strainmeter data. There are several advantages to this method since many parameters are estimated simultaneously. These parameters include: (1) functional terms that describe the underlying error model, (2) the tidal terms, (3) the pressure loading term(s), (4) amplitudes of offsets, either those from earthquakes or from the instrument, (5) rate and changes in rate, and (6) the amplitudes and time constants of either logarithmic or exponential curves that can characterize postseismic deformation or diffusion of fluids near the strainmeter. With the proper error model, realistic estimates of the standard errors of the various parameters are obtained; this is especially critical in determining the statistical significance of a suspected, tectonic strain signal. The program also provides a method of tracking the various adjustments required to process strainmeter data. In addition, the program provides several plots to assist with identifying either tectonic signals or other signals that may need to be removed before any geophysical signal can be identified.

Computers & Geosciences↗

Hydrogeochemistry of prairie pothole region wetlands: Role of long-term critical zone processes

This study addresses the geologic and hydrogeochemical processes operating at a range of scales within the prairie pothole region (PPR). The PPR is a 750,000 km 2 portion of north central North America that hosts millions of small wetlands known to be critical habitat for waterfowl and other wildlife. At a local scale, we characterized the geochemical evolution of the 92-ha Cottonwood Lake study area (CWLSA), located in North Dakota, USA. Critical zone processes are the long-term determinant of wetland water and groundwater geochemistry via the interaction of oxygenated groundwater with pyrite in the underlying glacial till. Pyrite oxidation produced a brown, iron oxide-bearing surface layer locally over 13 m thick and an estimated minimum of 1.3 &times; 10 10 g sulfate (SO 4 2 &minus; ) at CWLSA. We show that the majority of this SO 4 2&minus; now resides in solid-phase gypsum (CaSO 4 &bull;2H 2 O) and gypsum-saturated groundwater. Results from the CWLSA were scaled up to a 9700 km 2 area surrounding CWLSA using ~ 1800 drill logs and literature data on wetland water chemistry for 178 wetlands within this larger area. The oxidized brown zone depth and wetland water compositional trends are very similar to the CWLSA. Additionally, surface water data from 176 southern Canadian pothole wetlands that conform to the same wetland water geochemical trends as those recorded in the CWLSA further corroborate that SO 4 2 &minus; accumulation driven by pyrite oxidation is a nearly ubiquitous process in the prairie pothole region and distinguishes PPR wetlands from other wetlands worldwide that have a similar overall hydrology.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

Evaluation of the physical process controlling beach changes adjacent to nearshore dredge pits

Numerical modeling of a beach nourishment project is conducted to enable a detailed evaluation of the processes associated with the effects of nearshore dredge pits on nourishment evolution and formation of erosion hot spots. A process-based numerical model, Delft3D, is used for this purpose. The analysis is based on the modification of existing bathymetry to simulate "what if" scenarios with/without the bathymetric features of interest. Borrow pits dredged about 30??years ago to provide sand for the nourishment project have a significant influence on project performance and formation of erosional hot spots. It was found that the main processes controlling beach response to these offshore bathymetric features were feedbacks between wave forces (roller force or alongshore component of the radiation stress), pressure gradients due to differentials in wave set-up/set-down and bed shear stress. Modeling results also indicated that backfilling of selected borrow sites showed a net positive effect within the beach fill limits and caused a reduction in the magnitude of hot spot erosion. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal Engineering↗

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models ( Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004 ). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Ecological Modelling↗

Spatially explicit modelling of floodplain forest succession: Interactions among flood inundation, forest successional processes, and other disturbances in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

Simulation models are often used to identify hydrologic regimes suitable for different riparian or floodplain tree species. However, most existing models pay little attention to forest successional processes or other disturbances that may interact with the hydrologic regime of river systems to alter forest dynamics in space and time. In this study, we introduce a flood disturbance module to the LANDIS-II forest succession modelling framework to enable investigations into how inundation interacts with other disturbances and successional processes to alter floodplain forest cover and community dynamics. We illustrate the functionality of the model using a case study with multiple scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA. We found that model predictions of total forest cover and the abundance of specific forest community types were generally related to uncertainty in the susceptibility of different species and age classes to inundation. By simulation year 100, increases or decreases in total forest cover and forest type distributions were roughly proportional to the initial differences in the susceptibility of species and age classes to inundation. The largest decrease in total forest cover was associated with a scenario that included disturbance by the emerald ash borer ( Agrilus planipennis ) and when using susceptibility parameters corresponding to the weakest flood tolerance. In contrast, changes in the composition of aboveground biomass were not sensitive to differences in susceptibility, and generally showed shifts toward later successional species with higher shade tolerance and longer lifespans for all scenarios. Our findings suggest that flood inundation interacts with other disturbances (e.g., insect outbreaks) and forest successional processes to alter forest abundance, distribution, and species composition in this system. Our modelling framework should allow for future studies that examine such interactions in other systems, and in the context of alternative hydrologic scenarios and other disturbance regimes.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗