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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators

Climate change has and is projected to continue to alter historical regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To assess the vulnerability of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with land managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the midwestern United States with a focus on riparian systems. The map is intended for use by regional administrators to help them work across various program areas (e.g. fisheries, endangered species) to prioritize locations needing support for adaptation planning. The tool can also be utilized locally by managers to better understand the effects that projected climate scenarios have on the hydrology of management units as they develop adaptation strategies. The vulnerability map is watershed-based (360 watershed units within the region) and combines 15 climate change indicators that were selected by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service natural resource managers based upon known and anticipated effects to species and habitats. The projected change in each of these indicators from the historical period (1986–2005) to the future period (2040–2059) was aggregated into a composite score for each watershed. Landscape-scale metrics reflective of a watershed’s adaptive capacity were combined with the climate change indicators to produce a vulnerability score. We found sub-regional variation in vulnerability to climate change with the greatest vulnerability in Iowa, central Illinois, and northwest Ohio. Greater vulnerability was seen in the higher greenhouse gas concentration scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 compared to the lower greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP 4.5, when looking at the mean of the five downscaled climate models used in this study. By quantifying and mapping climate change vulnerability, natural resource managers can better understand the degree of vulnerability for individual watersheds and identify areas of prioritization in regional and local planning efforts.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2011

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

Historical contributions of phosphorus from natural and agricultural sources and implications for stream water quality, Cheney Reservoir watershed, south-central Kansas

An examination of soil cores collected from 43 nonagricultural coring sites in the Cheney Reservoir watershed of south-central Kansas was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in September 1999. The cores were collected as part of an ongoing cooperative study with the city of Wichita, Kansas. The 43 sites (mostly cemeteries) were thought to have total phosphorus concentrations in the soil that are representative of natural conditions (unaffected by human activity). The purpose of this report is to present the analysis and evaluation of these soil cores, to quantify the phosphorus contributions to Cheney Reservoir from natural and agricultural sources, and to provide estimates of stream-water-quality response to natural concentrations of total phosphorus in the soil. Analysis of soil cores from the 43 sites produced natural concentrations of total phosphorus that ranged from 74 to 539 milligrams per kilogram with a median concentration of 245 milligrams per kilogram in 2-inch soil cores and from 50 to 409 milligrams per kilogram with a median concentration of 166 milligrams per kilogram in 8-inch soil cores. Natural concentrations of total phosphorus in soil were statistically larger in samples from coring sites in the eastern half of the watershed than in samples from coring sites in the western half of the watershed. This result partly explains a previously determined west-to-east increase in total phosphorus yields in streams of the Cheney Reservoir watershed. A comparison of total phosphorus concentrations in soil under natural conditions to the historical mean total phosphorus concentration in agriculturally enriched bottom sediment in Cheney Reservoir indicated that agricultural activities within the watershed have increased total phosphorus concentrations in watershed soil that is transported in streams to about 2.9 times natural concentrations. Retention efficiencies for phosphorus and sediment historically transported to Cheney Reservoir were calculated at 92 and 99 percent, respectively. Most of the phosphorus was retained in bottom sediment. Sediment accumulation in Cheney Reservoir was less than reservoir design-life specifications on the basis of the age of the reservoir. Estimates of mean total phosphorus concentrations for selected streams in the Cheney Reservoir watershed under natural concentrations of total phosphorus in soil and a historic set of watershed conditions indicate that water from two of the five streamflow sampling sites would not meet the total phosphorus water-quality goal of 0.10 milligram per liter established by the Cheney Reservoir Watershed Task Force Committee. These results imply that the water-quality goal for total phosphorus in some streams of the watershed may not be met simply by reducing the amount of phosphorus applied. Instead, meeting the goal could involve a combination of approaches-for example, reducing the agricultural distribution of phosphorus and implementing changes in watershed activities to mitigate phosphorus movement to surface water.

Kansas↗
USGS2016

Mapping technological and biophysical capacities of watersheds to regulate floods

Flood regulation is a widely valued and studied service provided by watersheds. Flood regulation benefits people directly by decreasing the socio-economic costs of flooding and indirectly by its positive impacts on cultural (e.g., fishing) and provisioning (e.g., water supply) ecosystem services. Like other regulating ecosystem services (e.g., pollination, water purification), flood regulation is often enhanced or replaced by technology, but the relative efficacy of natural versus technological features in controlling floods has scarcely been examined. In an effort to assess flood regulation capacity for selected urban watersheds in the southeastern United States, we: (1) used long-term flood records to assess relative influence of technological and biophysical indicators on flood magnitude and duration, (2) compared the widely used runoff curve number (RCN) approach for assessing the biophysical capacity to regulate floods to an alternative approach that acknowledges land cover and soil properties separately, and (3) mapped technological and biophysical flood regulation capacities based on indicator importance-values derived for flood magnitude and duration. We found that watersheds with high biophysical (via the alternative approach) and technological capacities lengthened the duration and lowered the peak of floods. We found the RCN approach yielded results opposite that expected, possibly because it confounds soil and land cover processes, particularly in urban landscapes, while our alternative approach coherently separates these processes. Mapping biophysical (via the alternative approach) and technological capacities revealed great differences among watersheds. Our study improves on previous mapping of flood regulation by (1) incorporating technological capacity, (2) providing high spatial resolution (i.e., 10-m pixel) maps of watershed capacities, and (3) deriving importance-values for selected landscape indicators. By accounting for technology that enhances or replaces natural flood regulation, our approach enables watershed managers to make more informed choices in their flood-control investments.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2018

Natural resource condition assessment: Olympic National Park

The Natural Resource Assessment Program aims to document condition and trends of selected park resources while identifying emerging issues and information needs. This information is intended to serve as a platform for natural resource managers to use in developing future resource stewardship priorities and planning. Olympic National Park (OLYM) on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula protects remarkable examples of several Pacific Northwestern ecosystems, including the glacier-capped Olympic Mountains, oldgrowth temperate rainforests, pristine river systems, and wild Pacific coastline and islands. The park provides habitat for numerous plants and animals, including at least 16 animal and eight plant taxa endemic to the Olympic Peninsula. The park’s lakes and rivers support over 70 stocks of Pacific salmonids and 29 native freshwater fish species. The rocky intertidal community is one of the most complex and diverse shorelines in the United States. Although we conducted in-depth assessments on a limited number of resources, the general condition of several other physical and biological components of OLYM ecosystems is described in Chapter 2, along with an overview of park history and ecology. In Chapter 3, we describe how we chose our focal resources and measures, as well as our protocol for conducting the assessment. In Chapter 4, we provide a detailed assessment of each resource, with a summary of condition and trends. In Chapter 5, we further interpret and discuss the implications of each focal resource status, highlighting future areas for monitoring and research. We summarize the general findings from our assessments below.

Washington↗
USGS2018

An initial comparison of pesticides and amphibian pathogens between natural and created wetlands in the New Jersey Pinelands, 2014–16

A study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Pinelands Commission and Montclair State University, was designed to compare pesticide concentrations and the presence and prevalence of amphibian pathogens between natural ponds and two types of created wetlands, excavated ponds and stormwater basins, throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. The study described herein is part of a larger study by the New Jersey Pinelands Commission designed to compare the functional equivalency of natural and created wetlands throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. Sites were selected on the basis of land-use classifications within a 500-meter radius around each wetland from a pool of natural ponds, excavated ponds, and stormwater basins determined by the New Jersey Pinelands Commission. Water, bed-sediment, anuran-food, and composite larval-anuran-tissue samples were collected from four reference (minimum land-use effects) and four degraded (maximum land-use effects) sites from each wetland type for a total of 24 ponds or basins throughout the New Jersey Pinelands during 2014–16. Prevalence of Ranavirus was determined on the basis of tail clips collected from 60 individual larval anurans in each wetland, and 10 animals from each wetland also were swabbed for the presence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Other constituents measured included turbidity, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, percent organic carbon in sediment, and composite larval-anuran lipid content. The amount of altered land (percent agricultural plus percent developed) ranged from 0 to 62.4 percent for the natural ponds, 0 to 63.6 percent for the excavated ponds, and 23.3 to 80.2 percent for the stormwater basins. The herbicides atrazine and metolachlor were observed in 60 and 89 percent of the water samples, respectively. The insecticide bifenthrin was the most frequently detected current-use pesticide (greater than 25 percent of the samples) in bed-sediment, anuran-food, and composite larval-anuran-tissue samples. The legacy insecticide p,p' -DDT and its primary degradates p,p' -DDD and p,p' -DDE were the most frequently detected compounds in bed-sediment and anuran-food samples (32–76 percent in sediment samples and 24–72 percent in anuran-food samples). Significantly, greater numbers of pesticides and higher total pesticide concentrations were observed in stormwater basins than in natural and excavated ponds. Reference wetlands had fewer pesticides and lower total pesticide concentrations compared to degraded wetlands, indicating a positive relation between percent altered land and pesticides throughout the New Jersey Pinelands. Ranavirus was observed in larvae from 4 wetlands, including 1 reference natural pond, 1 degraded natural pond, and 2 degraded stormwater basins, with prevalence ranging from 3 to 43 percent. Bd was detected in swabs from 18 animals and in 4 natural ponds (1 reference and 3 degraded), 3 excavated ponds (all reference), and 2 stormwater basins (1 reference and 1 degraded); however, detection probability was low. In the wetlands with Bd detections, between 10 and 30 percent (between 1 and 3) of the animal’s swabbed tested positive for Bd. Owing to the limited number of positive detections for both Bd and Ranavirus , no statistical comparisons between wetland types and land-use classifications were possible.

New Jersey↗
USGS2023

Visualization of petroleum exploration maturity for six petroleum provinces outside the United States and Canada

Outside the United States and Canada, most of the world’s supplies of oil and natural gas are recovered from conventional (or discrete) oil and gas accumulations. This type of hydrocarbon accumulation remains a target for exploration. In this report, exploration and discovery data are used to visually assist in describing the exploration maturity of selected petroleum provinces with respect to conventional oil and natural gas accumulations. The specific provinces are the Campos Basin (Brazil), the Santos Basin (Brazil), the North Sea Graben (northwestern Europe), the Middle Magdelena Basin (Colombia), the Sirte Basin (Libya), and the Kutei Basin (Indonesia). For each province, discovery data and well data through October 2019 are reported; from these data, depth distributions of the oil in oil fields and natural gas in gas fields were computed. The concepts of delineated prospective area and explored area include elements of geographic spatial information and statistical data analytics. Graphs showing dynamic growth of discoveries that are tied to the delineated prospective area provide a means of grading prospective area. Visualizations put the results of exploration in the context of geographic and geologic features of the play or basin and can be a tool to assist geologists with the appraisal of the number and sizes of undiscovered petroleum accumulations. Visualizations of exploration drilling and discoveries can (1) assist in conceptualizing a geologic model of the basin, (2) highlight relations among discovered accumulations in different plays or assessment units within the basin, and (3) allow the geologist to identify the missing information needed to complete the geologic model of a basin. Further, if visualization attributes can be quantified, they may be used for formulating quantitative models that predict numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations. Such modeling approaches include discovery process models, Bayesian network models that characterize play or assessment unit dependencies, and innovative applications of machine learning to complement standard geologic assessments. The purpose of this report is to show how visualizations can further the understanding of exploration maturity for the six selected petroleum provinces. It also shows how the geologic framework, geologic data, and drilling and discovery trends can give context to the interpretation of the visualizations that lead to appraisal of exploration maturity.

Campos Basin, Kutei Basin, Middle Magdelena Basin,↗
USGS2021

SiteOpt: An open-source R-package for site selection and portfolio optimization

Conservation planning involves identifying and selecting actions to best achieve objectives for managing natural, social and cultural resources. Conservation problems are often high dimensional when specified as combinatorial or portfolio problems and when multiple competing objectives are considered at varying spatial and temporal scales. Although analytical techniques such as modern portfolio theory (MPT) have been developed to address these complex problems, open source computational platforms for executing these approaches are not readily available. We present a user-friendly R-package called SiteOpt for optimization of binary decisions while explicitly considering environmental or economic uncertainty and the risk tolerance of decision makers. We illustrate the package with spatially-explicit site selection problems (i.e. spatial conservation planning), including an option for divestment (i.e. selling assets), when accounting for future uncertainties in designing conservation areas. The tool is applicable to both spatial and non-spatial problems, such as budget allocation or species selection. Constraints for spatial design and spatial dependencies (e.g. connectivity among sites) can also be specified in SiteOpt. Users can optimize site selection based on two competing objectives by solving for the Nash bargaining solution. Importantly, by quantifying uncertainty and asset spatial correlation, a measure of risk can be included as one such objective to be traded off against portfolio benefits. Thus, SiteOpt can be used to explicitly manage risk in portfolio-based spatial optimization. This tool facilitates decisions in a variety of problem settings, including reserve selection, invasive species management, allocation of law enforcement activities for conservation, budget allocation and asset selection under uncertainty and risk.

Ecography↗
USGS2003

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2025

Eradication efforts catalyze rapid evolution in an invasive predatory fish

pecies invasions spur costly and labor-intensive control efforts, yet even local eradication is seldom achieved. When control measures are initially effective, they may drive evolutionary adaptation that prevents full eradication, as has been documented for some chemical and biocontrol approaches. Although the intensity, directionality, and persistence of selection required to increase the frequency of resistant genotypes in complex natural ecosystems remains an open question, theory predicts that high mortality can cause life-history evolution even in the absence of a strong selective agent. Here, we use annually collected ecological and genetic data to show that rapid evolution of introduced smallmouth bass has undermined a 20-y manual suppression effort in a mid-sized lake. Despite nearly doubling annual mortality, our intensive control program produced a larger bass population dominated by young and early-maturing fish. These shifts were accompanied by large allele frequency changes in three genomic regions associated with earlier maturation and increased somatic growth. Our findings bear out the theoretical prediction that high mortality can drive evolutionary adaptation in target species. Controlling species invasions are worldwide practices that typically remove a substantial proportion of a population during each of many successive generations, hence life history adaptation may be commonplace. Such evolutionary responses could be salient in explaining the widespread failure of invasion control efforts. Genetic and phenotypic monitoring to detect cryptic adaptation and preemptive design of invader eradication programs to deliberately disrupt directional selection for resistance could improve invasion control outcomes.

New York↗
USGS2019

Selecting ecological models using multi-objective optimization

Choices in ecological research and natural resource management require balancing multiple, often competing objectives. Examples include maximizing species persistence in a wildlife conservation context, while minimizing cost, or balancing opposing stakeholder objectives when managing wildlife populations. Multiple-objective optimization (MOO) provides a unifying framework for solving multiple objective problems. Model selection is a critical component of ecological inference and prediction and requires balancing the competing objectives of model fit and model complexity. The tradeoff between model fit and model complexity provides a basis for describing the model-selection problem within the MOO framework. We discuss MOO and two strategies for solving the MOO problem; modeling preferences pre-optimization and post-optimization. Most conventional model selection methods can be formulated as solutions of MOO problems via specification of pre-optimization preferences. We reconcile model selection within the MOO framework. We also consider model selection using post-optimization specification of preferences. That is, by first identifying Pareto optimal solutions, and then selecting among them. We demonstrate concepts with an ecological application of model selection using avian species richness data in the continental United States.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2015

Dissolved-solids loads discharged from irrigated areas near Manila, Utah, May 2007-October 2012, and relation of loads to selected variables

The Manila/Washam Salinity Project (MWSP) is a cooperative effort by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and local farmers and ranchers to reduce the transport of dissolved solids to Flaming Gorge Reservoir from irrigated agricultural lands near Manila, Utah. To estimate dissolved-solids loads from the MWSP area, discharge and water quality from Birch Spring Draw and other selected outflows and inflows were monitored from May 2007 to October 2012. An average annual May–April streamflow of 5,960 acre-feet discharged from Birch Spring Draw at site BSD-2 to Flaming Gorge Reservoir during 2007–12, containing an average dissolved-solids load of 14,660 tons. An average May–April net dissolved-solids load of 24,300 tons per year discharged from the MWSP area, estimated from the relation between streamflow and dissolved-solids concentration at site BSD-2 and other measured inflows and outflows. The amount of precipitation and water available for irrigation are important factors affecting the dissolved-solids load in outflow from the MWSP area. Net dissolved-solids load discharged from the MWSP area increased with increasing canal streamflow and precipitation measured at Manila during the irrigation season, from May to October, each year. The net tons of dissolved solids discharged from the MWSP area per acre-foot of canal water increased with increasing irrigation season precipitation during May 2007–October 2012. Irrigation improvements began to be implemented in 2007 to reduce dissolved-solids loads discharged from the MWSP area. The theoretical annual net dissolved-solids load where the cumulative NRCS calculated dissolved-solids load reduction is added to the net MWSP dissolved-solids load is what would be expected if there was no irrigation improvement in the area associated with the MWSP. The theoretical data points lie very near the baseline representing the pre-MWSP dissolved-solids load to canal streamflow relation. The proximity of the theoretical data points to the baseline shows that the NRCS calculations of reduction in dissolved-solids load are generally supported by the data collected during this study.

Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2019

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 summary of scientific results: Evaluation of natural gas hydrate-bearing pressure cores

India’s National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) Expedition-02 was conducted in 2015 with the goal of investigating numerous locations that had been determined to be prospective for gas hydrate at high saturation in sand-rich reservoirs. Initial logging while drilling data revealed extensive sand-rich gas hydrate occurrences at multiple drill sites in two broad areas. These sites were further investigated through the acquisition and analyses of pressure cores designed to document 1) gas hydrate occurrence within the reservoirs; 2) the petrophysical nature of the reservoir and associated seals, in their native state as well as during and after the dissociation of gas hydrate; 3) the geomechanical nature of the reservoir and seals; and 4) the geochemical nature of reservoir fluids. The cores were initially evaluated at sea, and select subsamples were transferred for more extensive analyses at specialized laboratories both in Japan and in the United States. The samples encompassed a wide range of gas hydrate saturation (from 0 to 100%) within reservoir sediments ranging from sandy silts to gravels, providing opportunities to extend and refine insights into the nature of gas hydrate reservoirs gained in previous programs. Select findings and implications of this coordinated pressure-core evaluation program are reported in numerous papers within the NGHP-02 Special Thematic Volume and are summarized here with respect to the following issues: the evaluation and mitigation of core disturbance, the assessment of gas hydrate occurrence and saturation, the geomechanics and petrophysics of both reservoirs and “seals” in situ, and the potential dynamic geomechanical and petrophysical behavior of reservoir and seals during production.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗
USGS2016

Movement reveals scale dependence in habitat selection of a large ungulate

Ecological processes operate across temporal and spatial scales. Anthropogenic disturbances impact these processes, but examinations of scale dependence in impacts are infrequent. Such examinations can provide important insight to wildlife–human interactions and guide management efforts to reduce impacts. We assessed spatiotemporal scale dependence in habitat selection of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in the Piceance Basin of Colorado, USA, an area of ongoing natural gas development. We employed a newly developed animal movement method to assess habitat selection across scales defined using animal-centric spatiotemporal definitions ranging from the local (defined from five hour movements) to the broad (defined from weekly movements). We extended our analysis to examine variation in scale dependence between night and day and assess functional responses in habitat selection patterns relative to the density of anthropogenic features. Mule deer displayed scale invariance in the direction of their response to energy development features, avoiding well pads and the areas closest to roads at all scales, though with increasing strength of avoidance at coarser scales. Deer displayed scale-dependent responses to most other habitat features, including land cover type and habitat edges. Selection differed between night and day at the finest scales, but homogenized as scale increased. Deer displayed functional responses to development, with deer inhabiting the least developed ranges more strongly avoiding development relative to those with more development in their ranges. Energy development was a primary driver of habitat selection patterns in mule deer, structuring their behaviors across all scales examined. Stronger avoidance at coarser scales suggests that deer behaviorally mediated their interaction with development, but only to a degree. At higher development densities than seen in this area, such mediation may not be possible and thus maintenance of sufficient habitat with lower development densities will be a critical best management practice as development expands globally.

Colorado↗
USGS2016

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses. Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states. A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state. A water-balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages. The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗
USGS2014

Habitat use and selection by adult pallid sturgeon in the lower Mississippi River

The Pallid Sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is an endangered riverine sturgeon with historical distribution restricted to the Yellowstone, Missouri, Mississippi, and Atchafalaya rivers. Although not abundant, Pallid Sturgeon in the lower Mississippi River appear to be naturally recruiting, and information about habitat use is important to conserve this species. Thirty-four adult Pallid Sturgeon (612-1,013-mm FL) were tagged with acoustic transmitters and relocated a total of 272times in a 40-km reach of the lower Mississippi River from April 2009 through December 2012. Pallid Sturgeon strongly selected island tip and natural bank habitats, and, to a lesser degree, revetted bank habitat. Although frequently used, Pallid Sturgeon exhibited negative selection for the expansive main channel habitat. Secondary channel habitat was seasonally available and excluded from habitat selection analysis, but this habitat was frequently used in the spring when available. Fifty percent of Pallid Sturgeon detections were in relatively narrow ranges of depths (6.2-13.6m) and surface current velocities (0.64-1.05m/s). Use of different habitats was related to river stage and water temperature, suggesting use of some habitats was seasonal. Results suggest that maintaining natural bank habitat and secondary channel-island complexes will benefit conservation of this endangered species in the lower Mississippi River.

Arkansas↗
USGS2016

Environmental drivers of differences in microbial community structure in crude oil reservoirs across a methanogenic gradient

Stimulating in situ microbial communities in oil reservoirs to produce natural gas is a potentially viable strategy for recovering additional fossil fuel resources following traditional recovery operations. Little is known about what geochemical parameters drive microbial population dynamics in biodegraded, methanogenic oil reservoirs. We investigated if microbial community structure was significantly impacted by the extent of crude oil biodegradation, extent of biogenic methane production, and formation water chemistry. Twenty-two oil production wells from north central Louisiana, USA, were sampled for analysis of microbial community structure and fluid geochemistry. Archaea were the dominant microbial community in the majority of the wells sampled. Methanogens, including hydrogenotrophic and methylotrophic organisms, were numerically dominant in every well, accounting for, on average, over 98% of the total Archaea present. The dominant Bacteria groups were Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter , Enterobacteriaceae, and Clostridiales, which have also been identified in other microbially-altered oil reservoirs. Comparing microbial community structure to fluid (gas, water, and oil) geochemistry revealed that the relative extent of biodegradation, salinity, and spatial location were the major drivers of microbial diversity. Archaeal relative abundance was independent of the extent of methanogenesis, but closely correlated to the extent of crude oil biodegradation; therefore, microbial community structure is likely not a good sole predictor of methanogenic activity, but may predict the extent of crude oil biodegradation. However, when the shallow, highly biodegraded, low salinity wells were excluded from the statistical analysis, no environmental parameters could explain the differences in microbial community structure. This suggests that the microbial community structure of the 5 shallow, up-dip wells was different than the 17 deeper, down-dip wells. Also, the 17 down-dip wells had statistically similar microbial communities despite significant changes in environmental parameters between oil fields. Together, this implies that no single microbial population is a reliable indicator of a reservoir's ability to degrade crude oil to methane, and that geochemistry may be a more important indicator for selecting a reservoir suitable for microbial enhancement of natural gas generation.

Louisiana↗
USGS2018

Historical sediment mercury deposition for select South Dakota, USA, lakes: implications for watershed transport and flooding

Purpose Select South Dakota, USA water bodies, including both natural lakes and man-made impoundments, were sampled and analyzed to assess mercury (Hg) dynamics and historical patterns of total Hg deposition. Materials and methods Sediment cores were collected from seven South Dakota lakes. Mercury concentrations and flux profiles were determined using lead ( 210 Pb) dating and sedimentation rates. Results and discussion Most upper lake sediments contained variable heavy metal concentrations, but became more consistent with depth and age. Five of the seven lakes exhibited Hg accumulation fluxes that peaked between 1920 and 1960, while the remaining two lakes exhibited recent (1995–2009) Hg flux spikes. Historical sediment accumulation rates and Hg flux profiles demonstrate similar peak and stabilized values. Mercury in the sampled South Dakota lakes appears to emanate from watershed transport due to erosion from agricultural land use common to the Northern Great Plains. Conclusions For sampled South Dakota lakes, watershed inputs are more significant sources of Hg than atmospheric deposition.

South Dakota↗