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USGS2021

Summer Diet of Juvenile Lake Sturgeon Reintroduced into the Genesee and St. Regis Rivers, New York USA

The restoration of threatened species involves understanding multiple aspects of the life history and ecology of the target species. One important consideration in the restoration of threatened species is feeding ecology. We examined the summer diet of reintroduced juvenile lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) in the Genesee ( n = 119, ages 1 and 2) and the St. Regis rivers ( n = 40, ages 1, 2, 5, 6, and 7) of New York State, USA, in the summer of 2005. The most common taxa consumed were Diptera (88% of prey biomass) in the Genesee River and Ephemeroptera (35% of prey biomass) and Diptera (29%) in the St. Regis River. Diptera: (Chironomidae) was the major prey taxon in both benthic communities. Selectivity analysis showed a positive selection of Diptera by Genesee River lake sturgeon and an avoidance of Diptera by St. Regis River lake sturgeon. The St. Regis River lake sturgeon showed avoidance of Coleoptera, but positive selection of Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera, and Oligochaeta. Results indicate that the reintroduced juvenile lake sturgeon are growing and successfully finding prey in these two rivers and appear to actively select specific prey types.

New York↗

USGS2024

Understanding key mineral supply chain dynamics using economics-informed material flow analysis and Bayesian optimization

The low-carbon energy transition requires significant increases in production for many mineral commodities. Understanding demand, technological requirements, and prices associated with this production increase requires understanding the supply chain dynamics of many minerals simultaneously, and via a consistent framework. A generalized economics-informed material flow method, global materials modeling using Bayesian optimization, captures the market dynamics of key mineral commodities. The method relies only on a limited set of widely available historical data as input, enabling quantification of economic relationships (elasticities) for supply chain components where data are sparse, and relationships cannot be obtained via traditional statistical approaches. Building upon established material flow analysis (MFA) and economic modeling techniques, Bayesian optimization was applied to fit an economics-informed MFA model to global historical demand, supply, and price for aluminum, copper, gold, lead, nickel, silver, iron, tin, and zinc. This approach enables estimates for the evolution of ore grades, mine costs, refining charges, sector-specific demand, and scrap collection for each commodity. Economic relationships were quantified and compared with a database compiled from the literature, including 1333 values from 213 analyses across 65 publications. Discrepancies in methods and limited coverage make use of these parameters in modeling efforts difficult. This work provides a single, homogeneous, probabilistic approach to identifying economic relationships across mineral supply chains, with uncertainty quantification, a literature database for comparison, and a modeling framework in which to use them. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗

USGS2008

Dispersal of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) in a Hawaiian rain forest

Introduced mosquito-borne pathogens avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum Grassi and Feletti) and avian pox virus (Avipoxvirus) have been implicated in the past extinctions and declines of Hawaiian avifauna and remain significant obstacles to the recovery and restoration of endemic Hawaiian birds. Effective management of avian disease will require extensive mosquito control efforts that are guided by the local ecology of the vector Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae). During October and November 1997 and September through November 1998 five mark-release-recapture experiments with laboratory-reared Cx. quinquefasciatus were conducted in a native rain forest on Hawaii Island. Of the overall 66,047 fluorescent dye-marked and released females, 1,192 (1.8%) were recaptured in 43-52 CO2-baited traps operated for 10-12-d trapping periods. Recaptured mosquitoes were trapped in all directions and at distances up to 3 km from the release site. The cumulative mean distance traveled (MDTs) over the trapping period ranged from a high of 1.89 km after 11 d (September 1998) to a low of 0.81 km after 11 d (November 1998). Released mosquitoes moved predominately in a downwind direction and they seemed to use forestry roads as dispersal corridors. Applying an estimated MDT of 1.6 km to a geographical information system-generated map of the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge clearly demonstrated that the effective refuge area could be reduced 60% by mosquitoes infiltrating into managed refuge lands. These findings should have significant implications for the design of future refuges and development of effective mosquito-borne avian disease control strategies.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗

USGS2011

Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2016

A goodness-of-fit test for occupancy models with correlated within-season revisits

Occupancy modeling is important for exploring species distribution patterns and for conservation monitoring. Within this framework, explicit attention is given to species detection probabilities estimated from replicate surveys to sample units. A central assumption is that replicate surveys are independent Bernoulli trials, but this assumption becomes untenable when ecologists serially deploy remote cameras and acoustic recording devices over days and weeks to survey rare and elusive animals. Proposed solutions involve modifying the detection-level component of the model (e.g., first-order Markov covariate). Evaluating whether a model sufficiently accounts for correlation is imperative, but clear guidance for practitioners is lacking. Currently, an omnibus goodnessof- fit test using a chi-square discrepancy measure on unique detection histories is available for occupancy models (MacKenzie and Bailey, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9, 2004, 300; hereafter, MacKenzie– Bailey test). We propose a join count summary measure adapted from spatial statistics to directly assess correlation after fitting a model. We motivate our work with a dataset of multinight bat call recordings from a pilot study for the North American Bat Monitoring Program. We found in simulations that our join count test was more reliable than the MacKenzie–Bailey test for detecting inadequacy of a model that assumed independence, particularly when serial correlation was low to moderate. A model that included a Markov-structured detection-level covariate produced unbiased occupancy estimates except in the presence of strong serial correlation and a revisit design consisting only of temporal replicates. When applied to two common bat species, our approach illustrates that sophisticated models do not guarantee adequate fit to real data, underscoring the importance of model assessment. Our join count test provides a widely applicable goodness-of-fit test and specifically evaluates occupancy model lack of fit related to correlation among detections within a sample unit. Our diagnostic tool is available for practitioners that serially deploy survey equipment as a way to achieve cost savings.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Machine-learning models to map pH and redox conditions in groundwater in a layered aquifer system, Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, eastern USA

Study region The study was conducted in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, in the eastern USA. Study focus Groundwater pH and redox conditions are fundamental chemical characteristics controlling the distribution of many contaminants of concern for drinking water or the ecological health of receiving waters. In this study, pH and redox conditions were modeled and mapped in a complex, layered aquifer system. Machine-learning methods (boosted regression trees) were applied to data from 3000 to 5000 wells. Predicted pH and the probability of anoxic conditions, defined by three thresholds of dissolved oxygen (0.5, 1, and 2 mg/L), were mapped at the 1-km 2 scale for each of 10 regional aquifer layers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Maps depict the extent of acidic groundwater and oxic conditions in the shallow, unconfined surficial aquifer and in unconfined, recharge-proximal areas of underlying aquifers, in contrast to alkaline and anoxic groundwater elsewhere. Geographic patterns and influential predictors–including elevation, overlying confining-units thickness, and simulated groundwater age and flux–are consistent with prior understanding of the processes controlling pH and redox in the aquifer system. The model-based maps support robust estimates of aquifer proportions, either areal or volumetric, likely to contain groundwater of a specified quality or be vulnerable to specific pH- or redox-sensitive contaminants. The machine-learning methods were an effective tool to map groundwater quality at the regional scale.

New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia↗

USGS2012

Estimating aboveground biomass in interior Alaska with Landsat data and field measurements

Terrestrial plant biomass is a key biophysical parameter required for understanding ecological systems in Alaska. An accurate estimation of biomass at a regional scale provides an important data input for ecological modeling in this region. In this study, we created an aboveground biomass (AGB) map at 30-m resolution for the Yukon Flats ecoregion of interior Alaska using Landsat data and field measurements. Tree, shrub, and herbaceous AGB data in both live and dead forms were collected in summers and autumns of 2009 and 2010. Using the Landsat-derived spectral variables and the field AGB data, we generated a regression model and applied this model to map AGB for the ecoregion. A 3-fold cross-validation indicated that the AGB estimates had a mean absolute error of 21.8 Mg/ha and a mean bias error of 5.2 Mg/ha. Additionally, we validated the mapping results using an airborne lidar dataset acquired for a portion of the ecoregion. We found a significant relationship between the lidar-derived canopy height and the Landsat-derived AGB (R 2 = 0.40). The AGB map showed that 90% of the ecoregion had AGB values ranging from 10 Mg/ha to 134 Mg/ha. Vegetation types and fires were the primary factors controlling the spatial AGB patterns in this ecoregion.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Applying local and global sensitivity analysis to inform bigheaded carp management

Natural resource managers commonly use population-level models to aid in understanding the status of target populations or the potential implications of management actions. Sensitivity analyses, specifically, local sensitivity analysis (LSA) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exist as tools to improve understanding of these models, the importance of specific parameters to model outcomes, and the assumptions inherent to population models. However, applied ecology and closely related fields such as fisheries and wildlife management rarely use LSA or GSA. Here, we apply LSA and GSA to the Spatially Explicit Invasive Carp Population model, a population-level model used to simulate and compare management actions on the invasive silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix population in the Illinois River. The spatial structure within the model arises from the navigation “pools” that exist between navigation lock-and-dam in the river and are also the focus of fisheries management in the river. We completed LSA and GSA for two reasons: (1) to compare the importance of model input parameters on simulated model populations and (2) to demonstrate the use of LSA and GSA for population-level models. In our system, the most important sensitivity values generally were detected in Alton Pool. This pool is the farthest downstream and includes a direct connection with the Mississippi River. These results indicate that the population dynamics in Alton Pool are an important driver of the population dynamics throughout the Illinois River. Management outcomes in this system will, therefore, be strongly dependent on the dynamics of Alton Pool.

Illinois↗

USGS2014

Defining ecological and economical hydropoweroperations: a framework for managing dam releasesto meet multiple conflicting objectives

Hydroelectric dams are a flexible source of power, provide flood control, and contribute to the economic growth of local communities through real-estate and recreation. Yet the impoundment of rivers can alter and fragment miles of critical riverine habitat needed for other competing needs such as downstream consumptive water use, fish and wildlife population viability, or other forms of recreation. Multiple conflicting interests can compromise progressive management especially with recognized uncertainties related to whether management actions will fulfill the objectives of policy makers, resource managers and/or facility owners. Decision analytic tools were used in a stakeholder-driven process to develop and implement a template for evaluation and prediction of the effects of water resource management of multiple-use systems under the context provided by R.L. Harris Dam on the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, USA. The approach provided a transparent and structured framework for decision-making and incorporated both existing and new data to meet multiple management objectives. Success of the template has been evaluated by the stakeholder governing body in an adaptive resource management framework since 2005 and is ongoing. Consequences of management of discharge at the dam were evaluated annually relative to stakeholder satisfaction to allow for adjustment of both management scenarios and objectives. This template can be applied to attempt to resolve conflict inherent in many dam-regulated systems where management decisions impact diverse values of stakeholders.

Journal of Energy Challenges and Mechanics↗

USGS2009

Variable growth and longevity of yellow bullhead (Ameiurus natalis) in the Everglades of south Florida, USA

Yellow bullhead (Ictaluridae: Ameiurus natalis) is the most abundant ictalurid catfish in the Everglades of southern Florida, USA, and, as both prey and predator, is one of many essential components in the ecological-simulation models used in assessing restoration success in the Everglades. Little is known of its biology and life history in this southernmost portion of its native range; the present study provides the first estimates of age and growth from the Everglades. In total, 144 yellow bullheads of 97-312 mm total length (TL) were collected from canals and marshes of the Everglades between April 2000 and January 2001, and from October 2003 to February 2005. Fish were aged using cross-sections of pectoral spines and ranged from 1-12 years, with the maximum age almost twice that of any yellow bullhead previously reported. Yellow bullheads from south Florida grew relatively rapidly during their first 3 years, but after age 5 growth slowed and fish approached an asymptote of ???214 mm TL. Compared to other populations in the United States, yellow bullhead in the Everglades grew relatively slowly, were smaller at age overall, but survived to older ages. ?? 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗

USGS2021

Drought resistance and resilience: The role of soil moisture–plant interactions and legacies in a dryland ecosystem

In many regions of the world, climate change is projected to reduce water availability through changes in the hydrological cycle, including more frequent and intense droughts, as well as seasonal shifts in precipitation. In water-limited ecosystems, such as drylands, lower soil water availability may exceed the adaptive capacity of many organisms, leading to cascading ecological effects during (concurrent effects) and after drought (legacy effects). The magnitude and duration of concurrent and legacy effects depends on drought intensity, duration and timing as well as the resistance and resilience of the ecosystem. Here, we investigated the effects of drought seasonality and plant community composition on two dominant perennial grasses, Achnatherum hymenoides (C 3 photosynthesis) and Pleuraphis jamesii (C 4 photosynthesis), in a dryland ecosystem. The experiment consisted of three precipitation treatments: control (ambient precipitation), cool-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation November–April) and warm-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation May–October), applied in two plant communities (perennial grasses with or without a large shrub, Ephedra viridis ) over a 3-year period. We examined the concurrent and legacy effects of seasonal drought on soil moisture, phenology and biomass. Drought treatments had strong concurrent and legacy effects on soil moisture, which impacted the phenology and biomass of the two grasses. Drought reduced growing season length by delaying green-up (cool-season drought) or advancing senescence (warm-season drought) and reduced biomass for both species. Biomass and phenology legacy effects from drought emerged in the second and third years of the experiment. While we observed differential sensitivity to drought legacies between the two grasses, we found limited evidence that shrub presence had interactive effects with the drought treatment. Synthesis . The results from this study highlight how abiotic and biotic legacies can develop and influence a community's resistance and resilience to subsequent droughts. When the frequency of repeated extreme events, such as recurring seasonal droughts, exceeds the capacity of organisms or ecosystems to recover (i.e. resilience), persistent drought legacies can reduce the resistance to subsequent drought events. Overall, these results highlight how drought legacies are a product of ecological resistance and resilience to past drought and can influence ecosystem vulnerability to future droughts.

Utah↗

USGS2018

A new 30 meter resolution global shoreline vector and associated global islands database for the development of standardized ecological coastal units

A new 30-m spatial resolution global shoreline vector (GSV) was developed from annual composites of 2014 Landsat satellite imagery. The semi-automated classification of the imagery was accomplished by manual selection of training points representing water and non-water classes along the entire global coastline. Polygon topology was applied to the GSV, resulting in a new characterisation of the number and size of global islands. Three size classes of islands were mapped: continental mainlands (5), islands greater than 1 km 2 (21,818), and islands smaller than 1 km 2 (318,868). The GSV represents the shore zone land and water interface boundary, and is a spatially explicit ecological domain separator between terrestrial and marine environments. The development and characteristics of the GSV are presented herein. An approach is also proposed for delineating standardised, high spatial resolution global ecological coastal units (ECUs). For this coastal ecosystem mapping effort, the GSV will be used to separate the nearshore coastal waters from the onshore coastal lands. The work to produce the GSV and the ECUs is commissioned by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), and is associated with several GEO initiatives including GEO Ecosystems, GEO Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) and GEO Blue Planet.

Journal of Operational Oceanography↗

USGS2022

Mapping first to final uses for rare earth elements, globally and in the United States

Estimating the material flows of rare earth elements (REEs) is essential to understanding which industries are most vulnerable to potential REE supply disruptions which, in turn, may inform policy recommendations aimed at reducing the supply risk. However, the REEs are a group of mineral commodities characterized by highly uncertain estimates of supply and demand due to the REE market's complexity, opacity, and small size. In this study, a streamlined methodology was applied to map mineral commodity first-use to final-use applications and to estimate total requirements at the national level based on available industrial data for final-use finished goods. This analysis examines REEs both as a group and individually, showing that total US requirements are between 15% and 16.5% of world requirements for the year 2015, the latest year with the most complete information available. The findings shed light on US industrial capabilities by revealing the discrepancy between the types of REEs that go into US raw material consumption and those that are contained in embedded consumption. For instance, given the United States’ large oil refining industry, US raw material consumption of lanthanum is quite high. In contrast, US raw material consumption of neodymium is relatively low, whereas embedded demand is comparatively high. This reflects the lack of industrial capacity to process REE concentrates into magnet material combined with the US's high imports of products that contain rare earth permanent magnets.

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗

USGS2010

Evaluation of nontarget effects of methoprene applied to catch basins for mosquito control

The mosquito larvicide methoprene is a juvenile growth hormone mimic that is widely used to control mosquito larvae in stormwater catch basins. This study addresses two concerns pertaining to methoprene's use for mosquito control. First, measurements of methoprene concentrations were made from water in catch basins that had been treated with methoprene and from an adjoining salt pond near where the treated catch basins emptied. The concentrations of methoprene in catch basins and at drainage outlets after application at the rates currently used for mosquito control in southern Rhode Island were 0.5 ppb and lower, orders of magnitude below what has been determined as detrimental to organisms other than mosquitoes. Second, the effects of methoprene on the communities that live in catch basins were evaluated both in simulated catch basins in the laboratory and in actual catch basins in the field. We found no evidence of declines in abundances of any taxa attributable to the application. Furthermore, we found no consistent changes in community-level parameters (e.g., taxonomic richness, and dominance-diversity relationships) related to methoprene application in either field or laboratory trials.

Journal of Vector Ecology↗

USGS2016

Tracking domestic ducks: A novel approach for documenting poultry market chains in the context of avian influenza transmission

Agro-ecological conditions associated with the spread and persistence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) are not well understood, but the trade of live poultry is suspected to be a major pathway. Although market chains of live bird trade have been studied through indirect means including interviews and questionnaires, direct methods have not been used to identify movements of individual poultry. To bridge the knowledge gap on quantitative movement and transportation of poultry, we introduced a novel approach for applying telemetry to document domestic duck movements from source farms at Poyang Lake, China. We deployed recently developed transmitters that record Global Positioning System (GPS) locations and send them through the Groupe Spécial Mobile (GSM) cellular telephone system. For the first time, we were able to track individually marked ducks from 3 to 396 km from their origin to other farms, distribution facilities, or live bird markets. Our proof of concept test showed that the use of GPS-GSM transmitters may provide direct, quantitative information to document the movement of poultry and reveal their market chains. Our findings provide an initial indication of the complexity of source-market network connectivity and highlight the great potential for future telemetry studies in poultry network analyses.

Poyang Lake↗

USGS2018

Development of a species status assessment process for decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) require scientific input on the risk that the species will become extinct. A series of critiques on the role of science in ESA decisions have called for improved consistency and transparency in species risk assessments and clear distinctions between science input and policy application. To address the critiques and document the emerging practice of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we outline an assessment process based on principles and practices of risk and decision analyses that results in a scientific report on species status. The species status assessment (SSA) process has three successive stages: 1) document the life history and ecological relationships of the species in question to provide the foundation for the assessment, 2) describe and hypothesize causes for the current condition of the species, and 3) forecast the species' future condition. The future condition refers to the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild under plausible future scenarios. The scenarios help explore the species' response to future environmental stressors and to assess the potential for conservation to intervene to improve its status. The SSA process incorporates modeling and scenario planning for prediction of extinction risk and applies the conservation biology principles of representation, resiliency, and redundancy to evaluate the current and future condition. The SSA results in a scientific report distinct from policy application, which contributes to streamlined, transparent, and consistent decision-making and allows for greater technical participation by experts outside of the USFWS, for example, by state natural resource agencies. We present two case studies based on assessments of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake Sistrurus catenatus and the Sonoran Desert tortoise Gopherus morafkai to illustrate the process. The SSA builds upon the past threat-focused assessment by including systematic and explicit analyses of a species' future response to stressors and conservation, and as a result, we believe it provides an improved scientific analysis for ESA decisions.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Factors influencing capture of invasive sea lamprey in traps baited with a synthesized sex pheromone component

The sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus , is emerging as a model organism for understanding how pheromones can be used for manipulating vertebrate behavior in an integrated pest management program. In a previous study, a synthetic sex pheromone component 7α,12α, 24-trihydroxy-5α-cholan-3-one 24-sulfate (3kPZS) was applied to sea lamprey traps in eight streams at a final in-stream concentration of 10 −12 M. Application of 3kPZS increased sea lamprey catch, but where and when 3kPZS had the greatest impact was not determined. Here, by applying 3kPZS to additional streams, we determined that overall increases in yearly exploitation rate (proportion of sea lampreys that were marked, released, and subsequently recaptured) were highest (20–40 %) in wide streams (~40 m) with low adult sea lamprey abundance (<1000). Wide streams with low adult abundance may be representative of low-attraction systems for adult sea lamprey and, in the absence of other attractants (larval odor, sex pheromone), sea lamprey may have been more responsive to a partial sex pheromone blend emitted from traps. Furthermore, we found that the largest and most consistent responses to 3kPZS were during nights early in the trapping season, when water temperatures were increasing. This may have occurred because, during periods of increasing water temperatures, sea lamprey become more active and males at large may not have begun to release sex pheromone. In general, our results are consistent with those for pheromones of invertebrates, which are most effective when pest density is low and when pheromone competition is low.

Journal of Chemical Ecology↗

USGS2012

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate speciﬁc phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but signiﬁcant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

International Journal of Climatology↗