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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Volcanic aquifers of Hawaiʻi—Contributions to assessing groundwater availability on Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui

The volcanic aquifers of the Hawaiian Islands supply water to 1.46 million residents, diverse industries, and a large component of the U.S. military in the Pacific. Groundwater also supplies fresh water that supports ecosystems in streams and near the coast. Hawaii’s aquifers are remarkably productive given their small size, but the capacity of the islands to store fresh groundwater is limited because each island is surrounded by seawater, and salt water underlies much of the fresh groundwater. The amount of fresh groundwater available for human use from Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers is constrained by the consequences of groundwater withdrawal. Restrictions placed on these consequences can translate to limitations on groundwater availability. Changes in recharge resulting from changes in land cover or climate can alter the effect of withdrawals. This study uses numerical models of the volcanic aquifers of the islands of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui to quantify the consequences of historical and plausible future withdrawals and changes in recharge. The study compares the results of model simulations of multiple scenarios of historical and projected future withdrawal and recharge. Results of the simulations using the groundwater models of the islands of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui have implications for other islands in Hawai‘i. Since the first modern water well was drilled in Hawai‘i in 1879, total groundwater withdrawals on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui have risen to nearly 400 million gallons per day. Model simulations indicate that these withdrawals have caused reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and springs, reductions in groundwater discharge to the ocean, changes in subsurface flow between sectors within an island, lowering of groundwater levels, and rise of the interface between fresh water and salt water in the aquifers. Future increases in withdrawals will increase the severity of the consequences. Changes in recharge can alter the effect of withdrawals—increases in recharge can offset the consequences of withdrawals, whereas decreases in recharge can exacerbate the effects of withdrawals. This study quantifies the consequences of withdrawals for past and plausible future circumstances. The models can be used to test other circumstances. Limits placed on the consequences of withdrawals—such as restrictions to protect stream or coastal ecosystems that rely on groundwater discharge and limitations on water-level decline and rise of the freshwater-saltwater interface to protect the productivity of existing wells—can translate to limits on groundwater availability from Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers. Setting acceptable limits to the consequences of groundwater withdrawal is also a critical part of assessing groundwater availability. Once these limits are set, numerical models can be used to quantify the amount of water that can be withdrawn within those limits and thereby inform management decisions that seek to balance the need to limit the consequences of groundwater withdrawals with the need to develop water for human use.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Environmental tracers of groundwater source, age, and geochemical evolution

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), was discharged in cooling wastewater to unlined surface ponds from 1952 to 1964 and reached the underlying unconsolidated aquifer at the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Hinkley compressor station in the Mojave Desert, 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. A suite of environmental tracers was analyzed in water samples collected from more than 100 wells to characterize the source, age, and geochemical evolution of groundwater within and near the Cr(VI) plume in Hinkley and Water Valleys. This information was used to help determine the extent of Cr(VI) associated with releases from the Hinkley compressor station and to identify Cr(VI) associated with natural sources. The source of water in most wells, indicated by stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope values for water, delta oxygen-18 and delta deuterium, was recharge by infiltration of intermittent surface flows in the Mojave River. With the exception of small flows in 1958, the Mojave River was largely dry between 1952 and 1969. This dry period spans the period of Cr(VI) releases from the Hinkley compressor station; 1952–69 also spans the period of high tritium levels in precipitation resulting from the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons and, as a consequence, tritium concentrations in groundwater in Hinkley Valley were comparatively low. Groundwater ages (time since recharge) increased downgradient from the Mojave River and with depth. Tritium, measured by helium ingrowth with a study reporting level of 0.05 tritium unit, was detected in water from 51 percent of wells, with detectable tritium as far as 7 miles downgradient from the Mojave River. Tritium concentrations were higher, and tritium/helium-3 groundwater ages younger, in water from wells near the Mojave River and in water from shallower wells downgradient. Agricultural pumping has decreased groundwater levels as much as 60 feet since 1952. As a result of this pumping, some groundwater containing tritium, and presumably anthropogenic Cr(VI), has been removed from the aquifer. The distribution of wells having carbon-14 activities near or greater than 100-percent modern carbon, consistent with post-1952 recharge water, was similar to the distribution of wells containing detectable tritium. Carbon-14 activities as low as 8.9-percent modern carbon, with carbon-14 ages (unadjusted for reactions with aquifer materials) of almost 20,000 years before present (ybp), were sampled in water from some deep wells. Hexavalent chromium concentrations in older groundwater were as high as 11 micrograms per liter but did not exceed 3.6 micrograms per liter in older water from wells completed in “Mojave-type” deposits (composed of felsic Mojave River stream and near-shore lake deposits sourced from the Mojave River); this value may represent an upper limit on Cr(VI) concentrations in groundwater within Mojave-type deposits that likely approximates background Cr(VI) concentrations in the study area. Chlorofluorocarbons were released to the atmosphere and hydrologic cycle as a result of industrial activity beginning in the 1930s. Chlorofluorocarbon data were not generally suitable for groundwater-age dating in Hinkley and Water Valley because of nonatmospheric contributions from local sources. Strontium-87/86 isotope ratios and stable chromium isotopes, delta chromium-53, provide information on the geochemical evolution of groundwater in the aquifer. Highly radiogenic strontium-87/86 ratios greater than 0.71000 were present in water from wells completed in coarse-textured Mojave-type deposits having low chromium concentrations but were not diagnostic of these materials. Nonradiogenic strontium-87/86 ratios less than 0.70950 were diagnostic of weathered materials in the northern subarea of Hinkley and in Water Valley that were eroded from Miocene (23–5 million ybp) deposits east of the study area. Values for delta chromium-53 ranged from near 0 to 2.8 parts per thousand (‰) difference. The extent of reductive fractionation, mixing with native groundwater, and longitudinal dispersion within the October–December 2015 (Q4 2015) regulatory Cr(VI) plume can be estimated on the basis of the delta chromium-53 isotope composition of groundwater within the plume. Reduction of Cr(VI) to trivalent chromium, Cr(III), can occur in the presence of natural reductants in oxic groundwater. Although not diagnostic of anthropogenic chromium at the concentrations of interest near the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume margin, delta chromium-53 data indicate anthropogenic Cr(VI) within the plume is not conservative and has reacted with aquifer materials; these reactions have removed some anthropogenic Cr(VI) from groundwater. Environmental tracers, and the distribution of modern (post-1952) and premodern (pre-1952) groundwater, inform understanding of the extent of anthropogenic and naturally occurring Cr(VI) near the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume and the understanding of geochemical processes occurring in and near the margins of the Cr(VI) plume. The oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of water, tritium/helium-3 groundwater-age data, and carbon-14 data were used with mineralogy and chemistry data as part of a summative-scale analysis to determine the Cr(VI) plume extent later in this professional paper (chapter G).

California↗
USGS2023

Predevelopment water levels, groundwater recharge, and selected hydrologic properties of aquifer materials, Hinkley and Water Valleys, California

Hydrologic and geophysical data were collected to support updates to an existing groundwater-flow model of Hinkley Valley, California, in the Mojave Desert about 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. These data provide information on predevelopment (pre-1930) water levels, groundwater recharge, and selected hydrologic properties of aquifer materials. A predevelopment groundwater-level map, drawn using water-level measurements from 48 wells collected as early as 1918, showed groundwater movement from recharge areas along the Mojave River to evaporative discharge areas near the margin of Harper (dry) Lake in Water Valley. During predevelopment conditions, depth to water ranged from near land surface along the Mojave River to above land surface near Harper (dry) Lake, consistent with flowing wells in Water Valley at that time. Depths to water in much of Hinkley Valley downgradient from the Lockhart fault were less than 20 feet below land surface. By 2017, water-level declines as a result of agricultural pumping, were as much as 60 feet near the Hinkley compressor station. Areal recharge from infiltration of precipitation on the valley floor is negligible. Average annual recharge as infiltration of runoff from upland drainages to Hinkley and Water Valleys averages 64.7 acre-feet per year. In most years recharge does not occur; in years when it occurs, recharge to Hinkley Valley is typically about 296 acre-feet. In contrast, average recharge as infiltration of streamflow from the Mojave River from 1931 to 2015 was between 13,400 and 17,100 acre-feet per year; in some years recharge from the Mojave River exceeded 100,000 acre-ft. Estimates of predevelopment groundwater movement through Hinkley Gap and groundwater discharge to Harper (dry) Lake ranged from 570 to 1,900 and 820 to 2,460 acre-feet per year, respectively; at the time of this study in 2017, groundwater movement through Hinkley Gap was estimated to be about 83 acre-feet per year. Hydraulic-conductivity values estimated from slug-test data for 95 monitoring wells ranged from less than 0.1 to 680 feet per day (ft/d); values generally decreased with depth. Median hydraulic-conductivity values calculated from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data for Mojave River alluvium and near-shore lake deposits were 73 and 11 ft/d, respectively; median hydraulic-conductivity values for locally derived alluvium and weathered bedrock were 6 and 2 ft/d, respectively. Hydraulic-conductivity values, estimated from NMR data for formerly saturated deposits overlying the 2017 water table, were as high as 300 ft/d near the Hinkley compressor station. Downgradient from the Hinkley compressor station, formerly saturated deposits had hydraulic-conductivity values of about 150 ft/d, which were higher than values in saturated material. Coarse-textured, permeable material in formerly saturated deposits above the 2017 water table may have allowed groundwater, released from the Hinkley compressor station that may have contained Cr(VI), to move rapidly downgradient. The Lockhart fault is an impediment to groundwater flow within Hinkley Valley. Groundwater-flow directions from horizontal point-velocity probe data were deflected to the west on the upgradient side of the fault compared to the nominal direction of groundwater flow estimated from water-level data. Younger groundwater was present on the upgradient and downgradient sides of the fault, and older groundwater with unadjusted carbon-14 ages as old as 5,650 years before present was in water from wells within splays of the Lockhart fault, consistent with limited groundwater movement across the fault. As a result, groundwater and Cr(VI) released from the Hinkley compressor station moved to the northwest along the downgradient side of the fault. Coupled well-bore flow and depth-dependent water-quality data show water from wells C-01 and IW-03 within the Q4 2015 (October–December 2015) regulatory Cr(VI) plume was yielded from thin layers within the aquifer that are composed of well-sorted lake-margin (beach) deposits that likely have high lateral and longitudinal connectivity. Collectively, data show highly permeable deposits above the regional water table and thin permeable deposits within saturated portions of the upper aquifer that may have conducted groundwater and Cr(VI) downgradient when releases from the Hinkley compressor station first occurred.

California↗
USGS2016

Changes between early development (1930–60) and recent (2005–15) groundwater-level altitudes and dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations In and near Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties, Texas

Llano Estacado Underground Water Conservation District, Sandy Land Underground Water Conservation District, and South Plains Underground Water Conservation District manage groundwater resources in a part of west Texas near the Texas-New Mexico State line. Declining groundwater levels have raised concerns about the amount of available groundwater in the study area and the potential for water-quality changes resulting from dewatering and increased vertical groundwater movement between adjacent water-bearing units. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Llano Estacado Underground Water Conservation District, Sandy Land Underground Water District, and South Plains Underground Water Conservation District, began a multiphase project to develop a regional conceptual model of the hydrogeologic framework and geochemistry of the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity, and Dockum aquifers. The Ogallala aquifer is the shallowest aquifer in the study area and is the primary source of water for agriculture and municipal supply in the area. This report describes the results of the first phase of the study, during which groundwater-level-altitude and selected water-quality data from wells in and near Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties were compiled and evaluated for the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity, and Dockum aquifers. Readily available digital groundwater data for the study area (geologic, well-construction, groundwater-level-altitude, and selected water-quality data) were compiled to assess temporal and spatial changes in groundwater resources from early development (1930–60) to recent (2005–15) periods. Pertinent data were compiled from available sources for the study area and for a 5-mile buffer area around the study area to prevent gridding errors near the boundary. Geologic and well-construction data were used to determine or verify the aquifer in which each well was completed. Depending on the available data, the aquifer assignment (aquifer in which a given well was completed) was determined on the basis of the following criteria, in order of priority: (1) the screened or open interval(s) of the well, (2) the total depth of the well, or (3) the completed aquifer reported for a given well by the data source. Potentiometric-surface maps were created to depict changes in groundwater-level altitudes for the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. In addition to comparing groundwater-level altitudes and water quality from the early development and recent periods, hydrographs of groundwater-level altitudes were created, and changes in water quality for various periods between 1930 and 2015 were evaluated. Variance maps for each groundwater-level-altitude grid were used to evaluate the spatial data coverage and to identify areas with higher uncertainty because of spatially limited data availability for some of the aquifers. For this report, existing dissolved-solids and nitrate concentration data were compiled and assessed for evidence of spatial patterns and changes over time. These data were compiled for samples collected from wells completed in the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity, or Dockum aquifer during the early development period (1930–60) or the recent period (2005–15); temporal and spatial variations were assessed from depictions of the measured concentration values. Dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations measured in samples from three wells completed in the Ogallala aquifer (well identifiers 11524, 11824, and 11825) for which long-term monitoring was done for various periods between 1950 and 2015 were also compiled and analyzed. Groundwater-level altitudes of the Ogallala aquifer are generally higher in the northwestern part of the study area and lower in the southeastern part of the study area, varying by as much as 800 feet. Groundwater flow paths for the early development period generally trend from northwest to southeast across the study area. Compared to those for the early development period, local features in the potentiometric surface for the recent period are more pronounced, likely as a result of additional data coverage, increased groundwater withdrawals, and local flow paths that are more variable. For the Edwards-Trinity aquifer potentiometric-surface map of the recent period, a general northwest to southeast flow gradient was also evident, with some subtle differences compared to the early development period. The Edwards-Trinity aquifer water-level-altitude change map between the early development and recent periods indicated similar spatial trends as in the Ogallala aquifer and indicated that groundwater-level altitudes declined over a large amount of the area for which sufficient data were available for reliably mapping changes. During the recent period, median dissolved-solids concentrations of less than 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) were predominantly measured in the western part of the study area, and median concentrations of more than 1,000 mg/L were predominantly measured in the eastern part of the study area. A general pattern of increasing nitrate concentrations from west to the northeast was evident in the study area. Nitrate concentrations measured in samples collected from 16 wells completed in the Ogallala aquifer for the recent period were equal to or greater than 10 mg/L, the primary drinking water standard for finished drinking water.

Texas↗
USGS2009

Hydrogeologic Framework, Groundwater Movement, and Water Budget in Tributary Subbasins and Vicinity, Lower Skagit River Basin, Skagit and Snohomish Counties, Washington

A study to characterize the groundwater-flow system in four tributary subbasins and vicinity of the lower Skagit River basin was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey to assist Skagit County and the Washington State Department of Ecology in evaluating the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals and consumptive use on tributary streamflows. This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater and surface-water flow system in the subbasins, and includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeologic framework of the subbasins; groundwater recharge and discharge; groundwater levels and flow directions; seasonal groundwater-level fluctuations; interactions between aquifers and the surface-water system; and a water budget for the subbasins. The study area covers about 247 mi2 along the Skagit River and its tributary subbasins (East Fork Nookachamps Creek, Nookachamps Creek, Carpenter Creek, and Fisher Creek) in southwestern Skagit County and northwestern Snohomish County, Washington. The geology of the area records a complex history of accretion along the continental margin, mountain building, deposition of terrestrial and marine sediments, igneous intrusion, and the repeated advance and retreat of continental glaciers. A simplified surficial geologic map was developed from previous mapping in the area, and geologic units were grouped into nine hydrogeologic units consisting of aquifers and confining units. A surficial hydrogeologic unit map was constructed and, with lithologic information from 296 drillers'logs, was used to produce unit extent and thickness maps and four hydrogeologic sections. Groundwater in unconsolidated aquifers generally flows towards the northwest and west in the direction of the Skagit River and Puget Sound. This generalized flow pattern is likely complicated by the presence of low-permeability confining units that separate discontinuous bodies of aquifer material and act as local groundwater-flow barriers. Groundwater-flow directions in the sedimentary aquifer likely reflect local topographic relief (radial flow from bedrock highs) and more regional westward flow from the mountains to the Puget Sound. The largest groundwater-level fluctuations observed during the monitoring period (October 2006 through September 2008) occurred in wells completed in the sedimentary aquifer, and ranged from about 3 to 27 feet. Water levels in wells completed in unconsolidated hydrogeologic units exhibited seasonal variations ranging from less than 1 to about 10 feet. Synoptic streamflow measurements made in August 2007 and June 2008 indicate a total groundwater discharge to creeks in the tributary subbasin area of about 13.15 and 129.6 cubic feet per second (9,520 and 93,830 acre-feet per year), respectively. Streamflow measurements illustrate a general pattern in which the upper reaches of creeks in the study area tended to gain flow from the groundwater system, and lower creek reaches tended to lose water. Large inflows from tributaries to major creeks in the study area suggest the presence of groundwater discharge from upland areas underlain by bedrock. The groundwater system within the subbasins received an average (September 1, 2006 to August 31, 2008) of about 92,400 acre-feet or about 18 inches of recharge from precipitation a year. Most of this recharge (65 percent) discharges to creeks, and only about 3 percent is withdrawn from wells. The remaining groundwater recharge (32 percent) leaves the subbasin groundwater system as discharge to the Skagit River and Puget Sound.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2010

Simulation of Groundwater Mounding Beneath Hypothetical Stormwater Infiltration Basins

Groundwater mounding occurs beneath stormwater management structures designed to infiltrate stormwater runoff. Concentrating recharge in a small area can cause groundwater mounding that affects the basements of nearby homes and other structures. Methods for quantitatively predicting the height and extent of groundwater mounding beneath and near stormwater Finite-difference groundwater-flow simulations of infiltration from hypothetical stormwater infiltration structures (which are typically constructed as basins or dry wells) were done for 10-acre and 1-acre developments. Aquifer and stormwater-runoff characteristics in the model were changed to determine which factors are most likely to have the greatest effect on simulating the maximum height and maximum extent of groundwater mounding. Aquifer characteristics that were changed include soil permeability, aquifer thickness, and specific yield. Stormwater-runoff variables that were changed include magnitude of design storm, percentage of impervious area, infiltration-structure depth (maximum depth of standing water), and infiltration-basin shape. Values used for all variables are representative of typical physical conditions and stormwater management designs in New Jersey but do not include all possible values. Results are considered to be a representative, but not all-inclusive, subset of likely results. Maximum heights of simulated groundwater mounds beneath stormwater infiltration structures are the most sensitive to (show the greatest change with changes to) soil permeability. The maximum height of the groundwater mound is higher when values of soil permeability, aquifer thickness, or specific yield are decreased or when basin depth is increased or the basin shape is square (and values of other variables are held constant). Changing soil permeability, aquifer thickness, specific yield, infiltration-structure depth, or infiltration-structure shape does not change the volume of water infiltrated, it changes the shape or height of the groundwater mound resulting from the infiltration. An aquifer with a greater soil permeability or aquifer thickness has an increased ability to transmit water away from the source of infiltration than aquifers with lower soil permeability; therefore, the maximum height of the groundwater mound will be lower, and the areal extent of mounding will be larger. The maximum height of groundwater mounding is higher when values of design storm magnitude or percentage of impervious cover (from which runoff is captured) are increased (and other variables are held constant) because the total volume of water to be infiltrated is larger. The larger the volume of infiltrated water the higher the head required to move that water away from the source of recharge if the physical characteristics of the aquifer are unchanged. The areal extent of groundwater mounding increases when soil permeability, aquifer thickness, design-storm magnitude, or percentage of impervious cover are increased (and values of other variables are held constant). For 10-acre sites, the maximum heights of the simulated groundwater mound range from 0.1 to 18.5 feet (ft). The median of the maximum-height distribution from 576 simulations is 1.8 ft. The maximum areal extent (measured from the edge of the infiltration basins) of groundwater mounding of 0.25-ft ranges from 0 to 300 ft with a median of 51 ft for 576 simulations. Stormwater infiltration at a 1-acre development was simulated, incorporating the assumption that the hypothetical infiltration structure would be a pre-cast concrete dry well having side openings and an open bottom. The maximum heights of the simulated groundwater-mounds range from 0.01 to 14.0 ft. The median of the maximum-height distribution from 432 simulations is 1.0 ft. The maximum areal extent of groundwater mounding of 0.25-ft ranges from 0 to 100 ft with a median of 10 ft for 432 simulations. Simulated height and extent of groundwater mounding associ

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Potential effects of groundwater pumping on water levels, phreatophytes, and spring discharges in Spring and Snake Valleys, White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah

Assessing hydrologic effects of developing groundwater supplies in Snake Valley required numerical, groundwater-flow models to estimate the timing and magnitude of capture from streams, springs, wetlands, and phreatophytes. Estimating general water-table decline also required groundwater simulation. The hydraulic conductivity of basin fill and transmissivity of basement-rock distributions in Spring and Snake Valleys were refined by calibrating a steady state, three-dimensional, MODFLOW model of the carbonate-rock province to predevelopment conditions. Hydraulic properties and boundary conditions were defined primarily from the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) model except in Spring and Snake Valleys. This locally refined model was referred to as the Great Basin National Park calibration (GBNP-C) model. Groundwater discharges from phreatophyte areas and springs in Spring and Snake Valleys were simulated as specified discharges in the GBNP-C model. These discharges equaled mapped rates and measured discharges, respectively. Recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and transmissivity were distributed throughout Spring and Snake Valleys with pilot points and interpolated to model cells with kriging in geologically similar areas. Transmissivity of the basement rocks was estimated because thickness is correlated poorly with transmissivity. Transmissivity estimates were constrained by aquifer-test results in basin-fill and carbonate-rock aquifers. Recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and transmissivity distributions of the GBNP-C model were estimated by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function that included measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Tikhonov regularization observations were equations that defined preferred relations between the pilot points. Measured water levels, water levels that were simulated with RASA, depth-to-water beneath distributed groundwater and spring discharges, land-surface altitudes, spring discharge at Fish Springs, and changes in discharge on selected creek reaches were measurement observations. The effects of uncertain distributed groundwater-discharge estimates in Spring and Snake Valleys on transmissivity estimates were bounded with alternative models. Annual distributed groundwater discharges from Spring and Snake Valleys in the alternative models totaled 151,000 and 227,000 acre-feet, respectively and represented 20 percent differences from the 187,000 acre-feet per year that discharges from the GBNP-C model. Transmissivity estimates in the basin fill between Baker and Big Springs changed less than 50 percent between the two alternative models. Potential effects of pumping from Snake Valley were estimated with the Great Basin National Park predictive (GBNP-P) model, which is a transient groundwater-flow model. The hydraulic conductivity of basin fill and transmissivity of basement rock were the GBNP-C model distributions. Specific yields were defined from aquifer tests. Captures of distributed groundwater and spring discharges were simulated in the GBNP-P model using a combination of well and drain packages in MODFLOW. Simulated groundwater captures could not exceed measured groundwater-discharge rates. Four groundwater-development scenarios were investigated where total annual withdrawals ranged from 10,000 to 50,000 acre-feet during a 200-year pumping period. Four additional scenarios also were simulated that added the effects of existing pumping in Snake Valley. Potential groundwater pumping locations were limited to nine proposed points of diversion. Results are presented as maps of groundwater capture and drawdown, time series of drawdowns and discharges from selected wells, and time series of discharge reductions from selected springs and control volumes. Simulated drawdown propagation was attenuated where groundwater discharge could be captured. General patterns of groundwater capture and water-table declines were similar for all scenarios. Simulated drawdowns greater than 1 ft propagated outside of Spring and Snake Valleys after 200 years of pumping in all scenarios.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

Groundwater contributions of flow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon to the lower San Joaquin River, California, 2006-08

The influence of groundwater on surface-water quality in the San Joaquin River, California, was examined for a 59-mile reach from the confluence with Salt Slough to Vernalis. The primary objective of this study was to quantify the rate of groundwater discharged to the lower San Joaquin River and the contribution of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations to the river. Multiple lines of evidence from four independent approaches were used to characterize groundwater contributions of nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Monitoring wells (in-stream and bank wells), streambed synoptic surveys (stream water and shallow groundwater), longitudinal profile surveys by boat (continuous water-quality parameters in the stream), and modeling (MODFLOW and VS2DH) provided a combination of temporal, spatial, quantitative, and qualitative evidence of groundwater contributions to the river and the associated quality. Monitoring wells in nested clusters in the streambed (in-stream wells) and on both banks (bank wells) along the river were monitored monthly from September 2006 to January 2009. Nitrate concentrations in the bank wells ranged from less than detection—that is, less than 0.01 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen (N)—to approximately 13 mg/L as N. Nitrate was not detected at 17 of 26 monitoring wells during the study period. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations among monitoring wells were highly variable, but they generally ranged from 1 to 4 mg/L. In a previous study, 14 bank wells were sampled once in 1988 following their original installation. With few exceptions, specific conductivity and nitrate concentrations measured in this study were virtually identical to those measured 20 years ago. Streambed synoptic measurements were made by using a temporarily installed drive-point piezometer at 113 distinct transects across the stream during 4 sampling events. Nitrate concentrations exceeded the detection limit of 0.01 mg/L as N in 5 percent of groundwater samples collected from the in-stream wells as part of the synoptic surveys. Only 7 of the 113 cross-sectional transects had nitrate concentrations greater than 1 mg/L as N. In contrast, surface waters in the San Joaquin River tended to have nitrate concentrations in the 1–3 mg/L as N range. A zone of lower oxygen (less than 2 mg/L) in the streambed could limit nitrate contributions from regional groundwater flow because nitrate can be converted to nitrogen gas within this zone. Appreciable concentrations of ammonium (average concentration was 1.92 mg/L as N, and 95th percentile was 10.34 mg/L as N) in the shallow groundwater, believed to originate from anoxic mineralization of streambed sediments, could contribute nitrogen to the overlying stream as nitrate following in-stream nitrification, however. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations were highly variable in the shallow groundwater below the river (1 to 6 ft below streambed) and generally ranged between 1 and 5 mg/L, but had maximum concentrations in the 15–25 mg/L range. The longitudinal profile surveys were not particularly useful in identifying groundwater discharge areas. However, the longitudinal approach described in this report was useful as a baseline survey of measured water-quality parameters and for identifying tributary inflows that affect surface-water concentrations of nitrate. Results of the calibrated MODFLOW model indicated that the simulated groundwater discharge rate was approximately 1.0 cubic foot per second per mile (cfs/mi), and the predominant horizontal groundwater flow direction between the deep bank wells was westward beneath the river. The modeled (VS2DH) flux values (river gain versus river loss) were calculated for the irrigation and non-irrigation season, and these fluxes were an order of magnitude less than those from MODFLOW. During the irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.11 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was −0.05 cfs/mi. During the non-irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.10 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was -0.08 cfs/mi. Information on groundwater interactions and water quality collected for this study was used to estimate loads of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon from the groundwater to the San Joaquin River. Estimated loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were calculated by using concentrations measured during four streambed synoptic surveys and the estimated groundwater discharge rate to the San Joaquin River from MODFLOW of 1 cfs/mi. The estimated groundwater loads to the San Joaquin River for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were 300 and 350 kilograms per day, respectively. These loads represent 9 and 7 percent, respectively, of the estimated instantaneous surface-water loads for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon at the most downstream site, Vernalis, measured during the four streambed synoptic surveys.

California↗
USGS2013

An update of hydrologic conditions and distribution of selected constituents in water, eastern Snake River Plain aquifer and perched groundwater zones, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, emphasis 2009–11

Since 1952, wastewater discharged to infiltration ponds (also called percolation ponds) and disposal wells at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has affected water quality in the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer and perched groundwater zones underlying the INL. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, maintains groundwater monitoring networks at the INL to determine hydrologic trends, and to delineate the movement of radiochemical and chemical wastes in the aquifer and in perched groundwater zones. This report presents an analysis of water-level and water-quality data collected from aquifer, multilevel monitoring system (MLMS), and perched groundwater wells in the USGS groundwater monitoring networks during 2009–11. Water in the ESRP aquifer primarily moves through fractures and interflow zones in basalt, generally flows southwestward, and eventually discharges at springs along the Snake River. The aquifer primarily is recharged from infiltration of irrigation water, infiltration of streamflow, groundwater inflow from adjoining mountain drainage basins, and infiltration of precipitation. From March–May 2009 to March–May 2011, water levels in wells generally declined in the northern part of the INL. Water levels generally rose in the central and eastern parts of the INL. Detectable concentrations of radiochemical constituents in water samples from aquifer wells or MLMS equipped wells in the ESRP aquifer at the INL generally decreased or remained constant during 2009–11. Decreases in concentrations were attributed to radioactive decay, changes in waste-disposal methods, and dilution from recharge and underflow. In 2011, concentrations of tritium in groundwater from 50 of 127 aquifer wells were greater than or equal to the reporting level and ranged from 200±60 to 7,000±260 picocuries per liter. Tritium concentrations from one or more discrete zones from four wells equipped with MLMS were greater than or equal to reporting levels in water samples collected at various depths. Tritium concentrations in water from wells completed in shallow perched groundwater at the Advanced Test Reactor Complex (ATR Complex) were less than the reporting levels. Tritium concentrations in deep perched groundwater at the ATR Complex equaled or exceeded the reporting level in 12 wells during at least one sampling event during 2009–11 at the ATR Complex. Concentrations of strontium-90 in water from 20 of 76 aquifer wells sampled during April or October 2011 exceeded the reporting level. Strontium-90 was not detected within the ESRP aquifer beneath the ATR Complex. During at least one sampling event during 2009–11, concentrations of strontium-90 in water from 10 wells completed in deep perched groundwater at the ATR Complex equaled or exceeded the reporting levels. During 2009–11, concentrations of plutonium-238, and plutonium-239, -240 (undivided), and americium-241 were less than the reporting level in water samples from all aquifer wells and in all wells equipped with MLMS. Concentrations of cesium-137 were equal to or slightly above the reporting level in 8 aquifer wells and from 2 wells equipped with MLMS. The concentration of chromium in water from one well south of the ATR Complex was 97 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in April 2011, just less than the maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 100 μg/L. Concentrations of chromium in water samples from 69 other wells sampled ranged from 0.8 μg/L to 25 μg/L. During 2009–11, dissolved chromium was detected in water from 15 wells completed in perched groundwater at the ATR Complex. In 2011, concentrations of sodium in water from most wells in the southern part of the INL were greater than the background concentration of 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L); the highest concentrations were at or near the Idaho Nuclear Engineering and Technology Center (INTEC). After the newpercolation ponds were put into service in 2002 southwest of the INTEC, concentrations of sodium in water samples from the Rifle Range well rose steadily until 2008, when the concentrations generally began decreasing. The increases and decreases were attributed to disposal variability in the new percolation ponds. Concentrations of sodium in most wells equipped with MLMS generally were consistent with depth. During 2011, dissolved sodium concentrations in water from 17 wells completed in deep perched groundwater at the ATR Complex ranged from 6 to 146 mg/L. In 2011, concentrations of chloride in most water samples from aquifer wells south of the INTEC and at the Central Facilities Area exceeded the background concentrations of 15 mg/L, but were less than the secondary MCL of 250 mg/L. Chloride concentrations in water from wells south of the INTEC have generally increased because of increased chloride disposal to the old percolation ponds since 1984 when discharge of wastewater to the INTEC disposal well was discontinued. After the new percolation ponds were put into service in 2002 southwest of the INTEC, concentrations of chloride in water samples from one well rose steadily until 2008 then began decreasing. Chloride concentrations in water from all but one well completed in the ESRP aquifer at or near the ATR Complex were less than background and ranged between 10 and 14 mg/L during 2011, similar to concentrations detected during the 2006–08 reporting period. During 2011, chloride concentrations in water from two aquifer wells at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) were slightly greater than concentrations detected during the 2006–08 reporting period. The vertical distribution of chloride concentrations in wells equipped with MLMS were generally consistent within zones during 2009–11 and ranged from about 8 to 20 mg/L. During April 2011, dissolved chloride concentrations in shallow perched groundwater at the ATR Complex ranged from 7 to 13 mg/L in water from three wells. Dissolved chloride concentrations in deep perched groundwater at the ATR Complex during 2011 ranged from 4 to 54 mg/L. In 2011, sulfate concentrations in water samples from 11 aquifer wells in the south-central part of the INL equaled or exceeded the background concentration of sulfate and ranged from 40 to 167 mg/L. The greater-than-background concentrations in water from these wells probably resulted from sulfate disposal at the ATR Complex infiltration ponds or the old INTEC percolation ponds. In 2011, sulfate concentrations in water samples from two wells near the RWMC were greater than background levels and could have resulted from well construction techniques and (or) waste disposal at the RWMC. The vertical distribution of sulfate concentrations in three wells near the southern boundary of the INL was generally consistent with depth, and ranged between 19 and 25 mg/L. The maximum dissolved sulfate concentration in shallow perched groundwater near the ATR Complex was 400 mg/L in well CWP 1 in April 2011. During 2009–11, the maximum concentration of dissolved sulfate in deep perched groundwater at the ATR Complex was 1,550 mg/L in a well located west of the chemical-waste pond. In 2011, concentrations of nitrate in water from most wells at and near the INTEC exceeded the regional background concentrations of 1 mg/L and ranged from 1.6 to 5.95 mg/L. Concentrations of nitrate in wells south of INTEC and farther away from the influence of disposal areas and the Big Lost River show a general decrease in nitrate concentrations through time. During 2009–11, water samples from 30 wells were collected and analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Six VOCs were detected. At least one and up to five VOCs were detected in water samples from 10 wells. The primary VOCs detected include carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, tetrachloroethylene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and trichloroethylene. In 2011, concentrations for all VOCs were less than their respective MCL for drinking water, except carbon tetrachloride in water from two wells. During 2009–11, variability and bias were evaluated from 56 replicate and 16 blank quality-assurance samples. Results from replicate analyses were investigated to evaluate sample variability. Constituents with acceptable reproducibility were stable isotope ratios, major ions, nutrients, and VOCs. All radiochemical constituents and trace metals had acceptable reproducibility except for gross beta-particle radioactivity, aluminum, antimony, and cobalt. Bias from sample contamination was evaluated from equipment, field, container, and source-solution blanks. No detectable constituent concentrations were reported for equipment blanks of the thief samplers and sampling pipes or for the source-solution and field blanks. Equipment blanks of bailers had detectable concentrations of strontium-90, sodium, chloride, and sulfate, and the container blank had a detectable concentration of dichloromethane.

Idaho↗
USGS2014

Aquifers of Arkansas: protection, management, and hydrologic and geochemical characteristics of groundwater resources in Arkansas

Sixteen aquifers in Arkansas that currently serve or have served as sources of water supply are described with respect to existing groundwater protection and management programs, geology, hydrologic characteristics, water use, water levels, deductive analysis, projections of hydrologic conditions, and water quality. State and Federal protection and management programs are described according to regulatory oversight, management strategies, and ambient groundwater-monitoring programs that currently (2013) are in place for assessing and protecting groundwater resources throughout the State. Physical attributes, groundwater geochemistry, and groundwater quality are described for each of the 16 aquifers of the State. Information in regard to the hydrology and geochemistry of each of the aquifers is summarized from about 550 historical and recent publications. Additionally, more than 8,000 sites with groundwater-quality data were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System and the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality databases and entered into a spatial database to investigate distribution and trends in chemical constituents for each of the aquifers. The 16 aquifers of the State were divided into two major physiographic regions of the State: the Coastal Plain Province (referred to as Coastal Plain) of eastern and southern Arkansas, which includes 11 of the 16 aquifers, and the Interior Highlands Division (referred to as Interior Highlands) of western Arkansas, which includes the remaining 5 aquifers. The 11 aquifers in the Coastal Plain consist of various geologic units that are Cenozoic in age and consist primarily of Cretaceous, Tertiary, and Quaternary sands, gravels, silts, and clays. Groundwater in the Coastal Plain represents one of the most valuable natural resources in the State, driving the economic engines of agriculture, while also supplying abundant water for commercial, industrial, and public-supply use. In terms of age from youngest to oldest, the aquifers of the Coastal Plain include Quaternary alluvial aquifers, including the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (the most important aquifer in Arkansas in terms of volume of use and economic benefits), the Jackson Group (a regional confining unit that served for decades as an important source of domestic supply), and the Cockfield, Sparta, Cane River, Carrizo, Wilcox, Nacatoch, Ozan, Tokio, and Trinity aquifers. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer accounts for approximately 94 percent of all groundwater used in the State, and the aquifer is used primarily for irrigation purposes. The Sparta aquifer is the second most important aquifer in terms of use, and the aquifer was used in the past dominantly as a source of public and industrial supply, although increasing irrigation use is occurring because of critically declining water levels in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Other aquifers of the Coastal Plain generally are used as important local sources of domestic, industrial, and public supply, in addition to other minor uses. Water quality generally is good for all aquifers of the Coastal Plain, except for elevated iron concentrations and localized areas of high salinity. The high salinity results from intrusion from underlying formations, evapotranspiration processes in areas of low recharge, and inadequate flushing in downgradient areas of residual salinity from deposition in marine environments. Trends in the spatial distribution of individual chemical constituents are related to position along the flow path for most aquifers of the Coastal Plain. These trends include elevated iron and nitrate concentrations with lower pH values and dissolved solids in groundwater from the outcrop areas, transitioning to lower iron and nitrate (related to changes in redox) and higher pH and dissolved solids (dominantly from the dissolution of carbonate minerals) in groundwater downgradient from outcrop areas. Groundwater generally trended from a calcium- to a sodium-bicarbonate water type with increasing cation exchange along the flow path. The Interior Highlands of western Arkansas has less reported groundwater use than other areas of the State, reflecting a combination of factors. These factors include prevalent and increasing use of surface water, less intensive agricultural uses, lower population and industry densities, lesser potential yield of the resource, and lack of detailed reporting. The overall low yields of aquifers of the Interior Highlands result in domestic supply as the dominant use, with minor industrial, public, and commercial-supply use. Where greater volumes are required for growth of population and industry, surface water is the greatest supplier of water needs in the Interior Highlands. The various aquifers of the Interior Highlands generally occur in shallow, fractured, well-indurated, structurally modified bedrock of this mountainous region of the State, as compared to the relatively flat-lying, unconsolidated sediments of the Coastal Plain. In terms of age from youngest to oldest, the aquifers of the Interior Highlands include: the Arkansas River Valley alluvial aquifer, the Ouachita Mountains aquifer, the Western Interior Plains confining system, the Springfield Plateau aquifer, and the Ozark aquifer. Spatial trends in groundwater geochemistry in the Interior Highlands differ greatly from trends noted for aquifers of the Coastal Plain. In the Coastal Plain, the prevalence of long regional flow paths results in regionally predictable and mappable geochemical changes along the flow paths. In the Interior Highlands, short, topographically controlled flow paths (from hilltops to valleys) within small watersheds represent the predominant groundwater-flow system. As such, dense data coverage from numerous wells would be required to effectively characterize these groundwater basins and define small-scale geochemical changes along any given flow path for aquifers of the Interior Highlands. Changes in geochemistry generally were related to rock type and residence time along individual flow paths. Dominant changes in geochemistry for the Ouachita Mountains aquifer and the Western Interior Plains confining system are attributed to rock/water interaction and changes in redox zonation along the flow path. In these areas, groundwater evolves along flow paths from a calcium- to a sodium-bicarbonate water type with increasing reducing conditions resulting in denitrification, elevated iron and manganese concentrations, and production of methane in the more geochemically evolved and strongest reducing conditions. In the Ozark and Springfield Plateau aquifers, rapid influx of surface-derived contaminants, especially nitrogen, coupled with few to no attenuation processes was attributed to the karst landscape developed on Mississippian- and Ordovician-age carbonate rocks of the Ozark Plateaus. Increasing nitrate concentrations are related to increasing agricultural land use, and areas of mature karst development result in higher nitrate concentrations than areas with less karst features.

Arkasas↗
USGS2016

Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources. A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively. Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software with Tikhonov regularization. Calibration targets for the groundwater model included 343,067 groundwater levels measured in wells and 10,820 estimated monthly stream base flows at streamgages. A total of 1,312 parameters were adjusted during calibration to improve the match between calibration targets and simulated equivalents. Comparison of calibration targets to simulated equivalents indicated that, at the regional scale, the model correctly reproduced groundwater levels and stream base flows for 1940–2009. This comparison indicates that the model can be used to examine the likely response of the aquifer system to potential future stresses. Mean calibrated recharge for 1940–49 and 2000–2009 was smaller than that estimated with the soil-water-balance model. This indicated that although the general spatial patterns of recharge estimated with the soil-water-balance model were approximately correct at the regional scale of the Northern High Plains aquifer, the soil-water-balance model had overestimated recharge, and adjustments were needed to decrease recharge to improve the match of the groundwater model to calibration targets. The largest components of the simulated groundwater budgets were recharge from precipitation, recharge from canal seepage, outflows to evapotranspiration, and outflows to stream base flow. Simulated outflows to irrigation wells increased from 7 percent of total outflows in 1940–49 to 38 percent of 1970–79 total outflows and 49 percent of 2000–2009 total outflows.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Effects of changes in pumping on regional groundwater-flow paths, 2005 and 2010, and areas contributing recharge to discharging wells, 1990–2010, in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

A previously developed regional groundwater flow model was used to simulate the effects of changes in pumping rates on groundwater-flow paths and extent of recharge discharging to wells for a contaminated fractured bedrock aquifer in southeastern Pennsylvania. Groundwater in the vicinity of the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, was found to be contaminated with organic compounds, such as trichloroethylene (TCE), in 1979. At the time contamination was discovered, groundwater from the underlying fractured bedrock (shale) aquifer was the main source of supply for public drinking water and industrial use. As part of technical support to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during the Remedial Investigation of the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site from 2000 to 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model of regional groundwater flow to describe changes in groundwater flow and contaminant directions as a result of changes in pumping. Subsequently, large decreases in TCE concentrations (as much as 400 micrograms per liter) were measured in groundwater samples collected by the EPA from selected wells in 2010 compared to 2005‒06 concentrations. To provide insight on the fate of potentially contaminated groundwater during the period of generally decreasing pumping rates from 1990 to 2010, steady-state simulations were run using the previously developed groundwater-flow model for two conditions prior to extensive remediation, 1990 and 2000, two conditions subsequent to some remediation 2005 and 2010, and a No Pumping case, representing pre-development or cessation of pumping conditions. The model was used to (1) quantify the amount of recharge, including potentially contaminated recharge from sources near the land surface, that discharged to wells or streams and (2) delineate the areas contributing recharge that discharged to wells or streams for the five conditions. In all simulations, groundwater divides differed from surface-water divides, partly because of differences in stream elevations and because of geologic structure and pumping. In the 1990 and 2000 simulations, all recharge in and near the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 discharged to wells, but in the 2005 and 2010 simulations some recharge in this area discharged to streams, indicating possible discharge of contaminated groundwater from North Penn Area 7 sources to streams. As the amount of groundwater withdrawals by wells has declined since 1990, the area contributing recharge to wells in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 has decreased. To determine the effect of changes in pumping on flow paths and possible flow-path-related contributions to the observed changes in spatial distribution of contaminants in groundwater from 2005 to 2010, the USGS conducted simulations using the previously developed regional groundwater-flow model using reported pumping and estimated recharge rates for 2005 and 2010. Flow paths from recharge at known contaminant source areas to discharge locations at wells or streams were simulated under steady-state conditions for the two periods. Simulated groundwater-flow paths shifted only slightly from 2005 to 2010 as a result of changes in pumping rates. These slight changes in groundwater-flow paths from known sources of contamination are not coincident with the spatial distribution of observed changes in TCE concentrations from 2005 to 2010, indicating that the decreases of TCE concentrations may be a result of other processes, such as source removal or degradation. Results of the simulations and the absence of increases in TCE-degradation-product concentrations indicate that the decreases of TCE concentrations observed in 2010 may be at least partly related to contaminant-source removal by soil excavation completed in 2005, although additional data would be needed to confirm this preliminary explanation.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2017

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the Bear Valley and Lake Arrowhead Watershed Study Unit, 2010: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the 112-square-mile Bear Valley and Lake Arrowhead Watershed (BEAR) study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit comprises two study areas (Bear Valley and Lake Arrowhead Watershed) in southern California in San Bernardino County. The GAMA-PBP is conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA BEAR study was designed to provide a spatially balanced, robust assessment of the quality of untreated (raw) groundwater from the primary aquifer systems in the two study areas of the BEAR study unit. The assessment is based on water-quality collected by the USGS from 38 sites (27 grid and 11 understanding) during 2010 and on water-quality data from the SWRCB-Division of Drinking Water (DDW) database. The primary aquifer system is defined by springs and the perforation intervals of wells listed in the SWRCB-DDW water-quality database for the BEAR study unit. This study included two types of assessments: (1) a status assessment , which characterized the status of the quality of the groundwater resource as of 2010 by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds, pesticides, and naturally present inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements, and (2) an understanding assessment , which evaluated the natural and human factors potentially affecting the groundwater quality. The assessments were intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources in the primary aquifer system of the BEAR study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers. Bear Valley study area and the Lake Arrowhead Watershed study area were also compared statistically on the basis of water-quality results and factors potentially affecting the groundwater quality. Relative concentrations (RCs), which are sample concentration of a particular constituent divided by its associated health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentrations, were used for evaluating the groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal or California regulatory or non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. An RC greater than 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than a benchmark. Organic (volatile organic compounds and pesticides) and special-interest (perchlorate) constituent RCs were classified as “high” (RC greater than 1.0), “moderate” (RC less than or equal to 1.0 and greater than 0.1), or “low” (RC less than or equal to 0.1). For inorganic (radioactive, trace element, major ion, and nutrient) constituents, the boundary between low and moderate RCs was set at 0.5. Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the primary metric in the status assessment for evaluating groundwater quality at the study-unit scale or for its component areas. High aquifer-scale proportion was defined as the percentage of the area of the primary aquifer system with a RC greater than 1.0 for a particular constituent or class of constituents; the percentage is based on area rather than volume. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the percentage of the primary aquifer system with moderate and low RCs, respectively. A spatially weighted statistical approach was used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. The status assessment for the Bear Valley study area found that inorganic constituents with health-based benchmarks were detected at high RCs in 9.0 percent of the primary aquifer system and at moderate RCs in 13 percent. The high RCs of inorganic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of fluoride (in 5.4 percent of the primary aquifer system) and arsenic (3.6 percent). The RCs of organic constituents with health-based benchmarks were high in 1.0 percent of the primary aquifer system, moderate in 8.1 percent, and low in 70 percent. Organic constituents were detected in 79 percent of the primary aquifer system. Two groups of organic constituents and two individual organic constituents were detected at frequencies greater than 10 percent of samples from the USGS grid sites: trihalomethanes (THMs), solvents, methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), and simazine. The special-interest constituent perchlorate was detected in 93 percent of the primary aquifer system; it was detected at moderate RCs in 7.1 percent and at low RCs in 86 percent. The status assessment in the Lake Arrowhead Watershed study area showed that inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks were detected at high RCs in 25 percent of the primary aquifer system and at moderate RCs in 41 percent. The high aquifer-scale proportion of inorganic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of radon‑222 (in 62 percent of the primary aquifer system) and uranium (26 percent). RCs of organic constituents with health-based benchmarks were moderate in 7.7 percent of the primary aquifer system and low in 46 percent. Organic constituents were detected in 54 percent of the primary aquifer system. The only organic constituents that were detected at frequencies greater than 10 percent of samples from the USGS grid sites were THMs. Perchlorate was detected in 62 percent of the primary aquifer system at uniformly low RCs. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment , identified the natural and human factors that could have affected the groundwater quality in the BEAR study unit by evaluating statistical correlations between water-quality constituents and potential explanatory factors. The potential explanatory factors evaluated were land use (including density of septic tanks and leaking or formerly leaking underground fuel tanks), site type, aquifer lithology, well construction (well depth and depth to the top-of-perforated interval), elevation, aridity index, groundwater-age distribution, and oxidation-reduction condition (including pH and dissolved oxygen concentration). Results of the statistical evaluations were used to explain the distribution of constituents in groundwater of the BEAR study unit. In the Bear Valley study area, high and moderate RCs of fluoride were found in sites known to be influenced by hydrothermic conditions or that had high concentrations of fluoride historically. The high RC of arsenic can likely be attributed to desorption of arsenic from aquifer sediments saturated in old groundwater with high pH under reducing conditions. The THMs were detected more frequently at USGS grid sites that were wells, part of a large urban water system, and surrounded by urban land use. Solvents, MTBE, and simazine were all detected more frequently at USGS grid sites that were wells with a greater urban percentage of surrounding land use and that accessed older groundwater than other USGS grid sites. Comparison between the observed and predicted detection frequencies of perchlorate at USGS grid sites indicated that anthropogenic sources could have contributed to low levels of perchlorate in the groundwater of the Bear Valley study area. In the Lake Arrowhead Watershed study area, high and moderate RCs of radon-222 and uranium can be attributed to older groundwater from the granitic fractured-rock primary aquifer system. Low RCs of THMs were detected at USGS grid sites that were wells and part of small water systems. The similarities between the observed and predicted detection frequencies of perchlorate in samples from USGS grid sites indicated that the source and distribution of perchlorate were most likely attributable to precipitation (rain and snow), with minimal, if any, contribution from anthropogenic sources.

California↗
USGS2018

Revised groundwater-flow model of the glacial aquifer system north of Aberdeen, South Dakota, through water year 2015

The city of Aberdeen, in northeastern South Dakota, requires an expanded and sustainable supply of water to meet current and future demands. Conceptual and numerical models of the glacial aquifer system in the area north of Aberdeen were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Aberdeen in 2012. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Aberdeen, completed a study to revise the original numerical groundwater-flow model using data through water year (WY) 2015 to aid the City of Aberdeen in their development of plans and strategies for a sustainable water supply and to increase understanding of the glacial aquifer system and groundwater-flow system near Aberdeen. The original model was revised to improve the fit between model-simulated values and observed (measured or estimated) data, provide greater insight into surface-water interactions, and improve the usefulness of the model for water-supply planning. The revised groundwater-flow model (hereafter referred to as the “revised model”) presented in this report supersedes the original model. The purpose of this report is to describe a revised groundwater-flow model including data collection, model calibration, and model results for the glacial aquifer system including the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers north of Aberdeen, South Dakota, using updated hydrologic data through WY 2015. The original numerical model was revised in several ways. The model was modified by adding four new layers, which included a surficial layer, two intervening confining layers, and a shale bedrock layer. The revised model provides an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system in comparison to the original model. The principal aquifers of the model area include portions of the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers. The lithologic information used to define and describe the aquifers in the model area was unaltered; however, aquifer properties and boundary conditions were reviewed and updated using geological information reported by the South Dakota Department of Environmental and Natural Resources and information obtained from geophysical investigations for this study. The horizontal extent of the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers was unaltered from the original model. The thickness of the Deep James aquifer was modified based on interpretations from the geophysical investigations. In general, groundwater in the Elm aquifer flowed from northwest to southeast and locally towards rivers and streams. Similarly, in the Middle James and Deep James aquifers, groundwater also typically flowed southeast. The revisions made to the original model include use of the following MODFLOW stress packages: Recharge, Evapotranspiration, Time-Variant Specified Head, Wells, Drains, and Stream Flow Routing, all of which were updated from the original model except for the Stream Flow Routing Package, which replaced the River Package used in the original model. Model calibration is the process of estimating model parameters to minimize the differences, or residuals, between observed data and simulated values; therefore, Parameter ESTimation (PEST) software was used to optimize model input parameters by matching model-simulated values to observed data. Calibration parameters included horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, and vertical streambed conductance for stream and drain cells. Multipliers were used to calibrate the recharge and evapotranspiration stresses. Evapotranspiration extinction depth also was adjusted during model calibration. Comparisons to the original model are described to highlight the changes made in the revised model. In general, the revised model adequately simulates the natural system and compares favorably with observed hydrologic data. Simulated water levels were evaluated by comparing them to single water-level observations at selected well locations. The selected wells were the same wells used in the original model. The coefficient of determination value between simulated and observed water levels for the revised model was 0.89 and included simulated and observed values from October 1, 1974 (WY 1975), through September 30, 2015 (WY 2015). The coefficient of determination value for the original model was 0.94 and included simulated and observed values from October 1, 1974, through September 30, 2009. The difference may indicate that the original model could have been overfit to hydraulic head observations because base flow was not simulated. The additional data used in the revised model included some climatically wetter, more extreme periods, such as 2011, in which annual precipitation was 30.9 inches. Average annual precipitation for the original model timeframe, which included data from WYs 1975–2009, was 20.26 inches. Additional precipitation data for WYs 2010–15, included in the revised model timeframe, resulted in an average annual precipitation for WYs 1975–2015 in the model area of 20.6 inches. The larger variability in climate data coupled with the additional water-level data could explain the lower coefficient of determination for water levels in the revised model. The revised model was used to calculate various groundwater-budget components for steady-state and transient conditions for WYs 1975–2015. The time-variant specified-head cells in the revised model had the largest change when compared to the original steady-state model for inflows and outflows. Comparing the transient budget components between the original and the revised models indicated that inflow from recharge and time-variant specified-head cells had the greatest effect on groundwater inflows, and outflow from storage had the greatest effect on groundwater outflows. The simulated potentiometric contours from the revised model were compared with (1) the observed (interpreted) potentiometric surface (layer 2) and the hydraulic head values (layers 4 and 6) and (2) the simulated contours from the original model. The simulated hydraulic gradients and general direction of groundwater flow in the Elm aquifer in the revised model generally matched the observed potentiometric contours, the simulated potentiometric contours from the original model, and general flow directions interpreted to be perpendicular to the contours. Minor discrepancies between simulated potentiometric contours from the revised model and the observed potentiometric contours may be due to the lack of observed data in the model area. The revised model was designed to reduce the limitations of the original model. The revisions were validated by comparing the results of the original model with the revised model. A primary benefit of the revised model is the inclusion of the surficial deposits and the confining units as explicit layers in the model. The addition of the surficial layer was beneficial for three primary reasons: (1) more accurate representation of recharge from precipitation, (2) more accurate representation of groundwater evapotranspiration, and (3) more accurate representation of groundwater and surface-water interactions. The groundwater model is a numeric approximation of a complex physical hydrologic system, and the revised model data were interpolated in regions with sparse data. Additionally, model discretization included averaged and interpolated values for water use, withdrawal rates, and hydraulic conductivity. The revised model provides a useful estimate for hydraulic gradients, groundwater-flow directions, and aquifer response to groundwater withdrawals.

South Dakota↗
USGS2020

Trends in recent historical and projected climate data for the Colorado River Basin and potential effects on groundwater availability

Understanding recent historical and projected trends in precipitation and temperature in the Colorado River Basin, and estimating what the projected changes in these climate parameters may mean for groundwater resources in the region, is important for water managers and policymakers to sustainably manage water resources in the basin. Historical (1896–2019) precipitation and temperature data for the upper and lower Colorado River Basins were analyzed to better understand recent trends in climate data that may affect groundwater resources in the area. Historical data indicate multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in precipitation in both the upper and lower basins. Although upper basin precipitation had no statistical trend over the recent historical period, the lower basin had a weak negative trend over this period. Multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in temperature also are observed in historical climate data in both the upper and lower basins, at least until the early 1970s. Beginning at that time, both the upper and lower basins experienced strong, monotonic positive trends in temperature. Basic principles of hydrology indicate that periods of decreasing precipitation as well as increasing temperature would have a negative effect, that is, reduction in groundwater infiltration and hence, reduced recharge of aquifer systems. Projected climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble members across the full range of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) from water years 1951 through 2099 were evaluated to understand what current global climate models are projecting about future conditions in the Colorado River Basin, and what this might mean for groundwater systems in the region. Precipitation in the upper basin is projected to increase throughout the rest of the century, rising to 6 percent above the 1951–2015 historical period by mid-century and to 9 percent above the historical period by the end of the century. Temperature in the upper basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century, with steady warming in decadal average temperatures expected until the last quarter of this century. In contrast to projected precipitation in the upper basin, precipitation in the lower basin is projected to be the same as, or slightly less than, the historical period throughout most of the rest of this century. Like projected temperature in the upper basin, temperature in the lower basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century. Comparing median projections for all future decades with median results from all historical decades, future precipitation is expected to be greater than that of the past in the upper basin, though no significant difference is projected for precipitation in the lower basin. Significant increases (p-value<0.05) are expected in temperature in both the upper and lower basins. To estimate the effects of projected precipitation and temperature on groundwater systems in the region, results from the 97 member CMIP5 climate projection ensemble were used as input in a Soil-Water Balance (SWB) groundwater infiltration model for the Colorado River Basin. SWB simulation results indicate that the upper Colorado River Basin is expected to experience decades of above-historical-average groundwater infiltration through the end of the century. For the lower Colorado River Basin, simulated groundwater infiltration is projected to be consistently less than the recent (1951–2015) historical period for most of the remaining century. A comparison of the distribution of all median simulated groundwater infiltration results between recent historical and future periods indicates projected groundwater infiltration in the upper basin is significantly (p-value<0.05) greater over the combined 2020–2099 future period than the recent (1951–2015) historical period. Moreover, in 41 of 71 (58 percent) possible future decades in this century, groundwater infiltration is projected to be greater than the 75th percentile of historical simulated groundwater infiltration. Projected groundwater infiltration in the lower Colorado River Basin across all future decades is significantly less than in the historical period. Of the 71 future decades in the century, projected groundwater infiltration in the lower basin is expected to be less than the 25th percentile of historical infiltration in 55 (77 percent) of the 10-year periods. Important differences in projected precipitation between the upper (increasing precipitation) and lower (decreasing precipitation) basins largely drive the different responses of simulated groundwater infiltration in the upper (increasing infiltration) and lower (decreasing infiltration) basins. It will be useful to revisit projections in groundwater infiltration in the Colorado River Basin when more up-to-date projections of precipitation become available from the next Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases or by using climate input developments through Regional Climate Modeling efforts and stochastic weather generators.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2022

Hydrology of the Yucaipa groundwater subbasin: Characterization and integrated numerical model, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California

Executive Summary Water management in the Santa Ana River watershed in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties in southern California is a complex task with various water purveyors navigating geographic, geologic, hydrologic, and political challenges to provide a reliable water supply to stakeholders. As the population has increased throughout southern California, so has the demand for water. The Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (hereafter referred to as “Yucaipa subbasin”), one of nine groundwater subbasins in what the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) refers to as the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin (California Department of Water Resources, 2016; the DWR naming convention is used within this report), is no exception; steady population growth since the 1940s and changes in water use has forced local water purveyors to regularly adapt their water infrastructure to meet demand. Groundwater has historically been the dominant source of water in the Yucaipa subbasin although recently, imported water via the California State Water Project has augmented the total water supply. Despite the influx of imported water, overall demand for groundwater continues to rise, and there is concern by local water managers that groundwater levels may adversely impact water supply and (or) decline to a point where it will be uneconomical to produce water, severely limiting the ability of local agencies to meet water-supply demand. To better understand the hydrogeology and water resources in the Yucaipa subbasin, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District initiated a cooperative study to understand the hydrogeologic system of the Yucaipa subbasin and in the encompassing Yucaipa Valley watershed (YVW). A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was constructed to quantify the structure and extent of hydrogeologic units. Historical and present-day groundwater conditions were characterized to evaluate the groundwater-flow system. Lastly, the Yucaipa Integrated Hydrological Model (YIHM) was developed to simulate the integrated surface-water and groundwater systems, including natural and anthropogenic (that is, human influenced) recharge and discharge throughout the study area from 1947 to 2014. The Yucaipa subbasin is an inland groundwater basin located about 12 miles (mi) southeast of the City of San Bernardino and about 75 mi east of Los Angeles, California. The subbasin encompasses about 39 square miles (mi 2 ), including the City of Yucaipa. The geographic extent of the Yucaipa subbasin was established by the California Department of Water Resources, who defined the boundaries of the subbasin based on hydrogeologic transitions between crystalline rock and basin-fill sediments, active fault strands, surface-water drainage divides, and a portion of an adjudicated groundwater management boundary. Two groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin are adjacent to the Yucaipa subbasin, the San Bernardino groundwater subbasin to the west and the San Timoteo groundwater subbasin to the south. The Yucaipa subbasin is encompassed by the YVW, which is in turn comprised of three sub-watersheds that represent surface-water flow across and within the Yucaipa subbasin. Although the Yucaipa subbasin is the specific area of interest for this study, the entire YVW was considered for the purposes of characterizing the hydrogeology of the Yucaipa subbasin and for development of the YIHM. The purposes of this report are to (1) describe the hydrologic and hydrogeologic settings of the Yucaipa subbasin and aquifer system, (2) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Yucaipa subbasin and the encompassing YVW, referred to as the YIHM, and (3) present numerical results, including water budgets and hydraulic heads, and the effect of pumping and climate stresses (precipitation and temperature) on water-budget components.

California↗
USGS2023

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in groundwater from the Great Miami buried-valley aquifer, southwestern Ohio, 2019–20

Groundwater samples were collected during 2019 and 2020 from 23 wells in the Great Miami buried-valley aquifer (GM-BVA) in southwestern Ohio by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Miami Conservancy District, Dayton, Ohio, to determine concentrations of selected per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The GM-BVA is a glacial outwash and alluvial fill aquifer that is the sole source of water supply for much of the region. Wells had total depths that ranged from 21 to 101 feet below land surface, and groundwater levels that ranged from 1.39 to 52.15 feet below land surface before sampling in 2019. Groundwater and related quality-control samples were sequentially collected from 22 of the 23 wells and analyzed for 24 different PFAS by 2 methods that used proprietary isotope-dilution based adaptations of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) method 537.1, termed methods 1 and 2. Method 2 had smaller reporting limits (RL) for 22 of 24 PFAS analyzed and smaller detection limits (DLs) for all 24 PFAS analyzed compared with method 1, which made method 2 more sensitive to detect PFAS. Concentrations of perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) in a groundwater (GW)-method 2 sample from well CL–275 of 1.9 nanograms per liter (ng/L) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) in a GW-method 2 sample from well BU–1106 of 2.1 ng/L were greater than their EPA interim health advisory guidances for drinking water (as of June 2022) by about 9,500 and 52,500 percent, respectively. The EPA interim health advisory guidances for PFOS (0.02 ng/L) and PFOA (0.004 ng/L) were also 65 and 215 times less, respectively, than the smallest method 2 DLs for PFOS (1.3 ng/L) and PFOA (0.86 ng/L). Other PFAS were either not detected in GM-BVA groundwater samples or were detected in concentrations less than Ohio action levels or Federal health-risk-based guidance. The most detected PFAS in groundwater was perfluorobutanesulfonate (PFBS), which had concentrations in samples from eight wells that ranged from 1.0 to 8.0 ng/L or from 0.05 to 0.4 percent of its EPA health advisory of 2,000 ng/L for drinking water. The similarity of PFBS (7.8 ng/L), perfluoropentanesulfonate (PFPeS; 8.1 ng/L), and perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS; 14 ng/L) concentrations yielded from the GW-method 1 sample from well CL–275 on July 9, 2019, to those of PFBS (8.0 ng/L), PFPeS (7.8 ng/L), and PFHxS (16 ng/L) from the paired GW-method 2 sample demonstrated the capability of both methods to reproduce PFAS concentrations that were greater than their respective DLs. Non-detection of these PFAS in follow-up GW-method 1 and sequential replicate (Rep–GW-method 1) samples from CL–275 on April 21, 2020, indicated that the 2019 results represented a transient detection in groundwater. Eleven of twenty-three wells sampled in 2019 had from 1 to 4 PFAS detected in one or more groundwater samples or in a paired replicate sample: PFBS in 8 wells and 9 samples; PFHxS in 4 wells and 5 samples; and PFPeS, PFOS, perfluorobutanoate, perfluoropentanoate, PFOA, and perfluorooctanesulfonamide in 1 well and 1 sample each. More PFAS were detected in GW-method 2 samples than GW-method 1 samples because method 2 had smaller RLs and DLs. Results indicate benefits from the analysis of paired samples, sequential replicate samples, and other quality-control samples using analytical methods with sensitive RLs and DLs to verify PFAS concentrations in groundwater. Groundwater-age estimates indicate that water produced from all sampled wells had infiltrated to the water table within the 1947–present (2022) period of PFAS use or environmental presence. Eight wells with detectable PFBS in groundwater from 2019 samples also had groundwater-recharge dates that ranged from 1991 to 2016. Those ages coincided with the possible environmental presence of PFBS as a PFAS byproduct or use as an alternative to PFOS after about 2002. Two wells that had detections of PFHxS in 2019 groundwater samples also had post-2000 groundwater-recharge dates that coincided with the period of use of PFHxS as an alternative to PFOS. Six of nine wells with more than 66-percent of urban land use that was within 0.3 miles of each well, as of 2012, also had 1 to 4 PFAS detected in one of their groundwater samples. Seven of nine wells that produced groundwater in 2019 with an oxic redox category also had one or more PFAS detected in a sample.

Ohio↗
USGS2023

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, Lower Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

The Humboldt River Basin is the only river basin that is contained entirely within the State of Nevada. The effect of groundwater pumping on the Humboldt River is not well understood. Tools are needed to determine stream capture and manage groundwater pumping in the Humboldt River Basin. The objective of this study is to estimate capture and storage change caused by groundwater withdrawals in the lower Humboldt River Basin that can provide the Nevada State Engineer with data and information needed to manage groundwater and surface-water resources. A numerical groundwater flow model was developed for the purpose of estimating stream capture from pre-2016 and future pumping as well as for any location of potential future pumping within the lower Humboldt River Basin. This model was developed using MODFLOW-NWT to represent the lower Humboldt River Basin hydrologic system, including Humboldt River; Rye Patch Reservoir; groundwater evapotranspiration; pumping from municipal, agricultural, mining, and domestic wells; and agricultural drains. Aquifer properties were calibrated using results from numerous single- and multi-well aquifer tests (Nadler, 2020) and through the process of model calibration. Historical capture was estimated for 1960–2016 and predictive capture for the system was projected 100 years into the future (2017–2116) based on historical pumping patterns. Stream capture and drain capture are relatively low for the historical and predictive periods. During the historical period, increased pumping during dry years caused increased connections with capture sources and less water sourced to wells from aquifer storage. Storage and groundwater levels generally recovered during subsequent wet years. Overall, storage change has been the main source of water to wells in the lower Humboldt River Basin, followed by groundwater evapotranspiration capture. During the predictive period, pumping is projected to remain constant and capture 9 percent of stream water after 100 years. Capture and storage change maps were created to visualize spatial variability in potential capture and storage change through time and to provide a database of results that can be used to manage groundwater and surface-water resources. These maps show that potential stream capture would be a minor source of water to wells located across most of the simulated area, except for locations close to the Humboldt River and Rye Patch Reservoir. Drains also would be a minor potential source of water to wells except for those directly adjacent to the drains. In general, the potential supply of water to wells is storage-dominated and over time groundwater evapotranspiration-dominated in the agricultural area. Capture difference maps were generated to visualize where potential capture results might have greater limitations associated with nonlinear flow processes, such as head-dependent boundary conditions. Higher capture differences indicate larger capture map bias and therefore greater capture map uncertainty due to the inability of capture maps to account for nonlinear flow processes. Stream capture differences are highest directly adjacent to the river but are otherwise minimal. Drain capture differences are highest in the region of the agricultural drain network but are otherwise minimal. The Humboldt River, Rye Patch Reservoir, and drains introduce very little nonlinearity to the model, and their associated capture map bias is minimal. Potential groundwater evapotranspiration capture introduces a fair amount of nonlinearity to the model and has the potential to result in significant, localized groundwater evapotranspiration capture map bias over time. Groundwater evapotranspiration capture differences are the result of higher pumping rates lowering the water table below the root zone faster than lower pumping rates and essentially removing groundwater evapotranspiration as a potential source of capture faster than lower pumping rates. Wells that can no longer source their supply through groundwater evapotranspiration capture then generally source more of their water from storage. Thus, storage change bias increases over time as well. Capture prediction uncertainty due to parameter estimation was evaluated using a covariance matrix adaptation-evolution strategy. One hundred Monte Carlo realizations of model parameters were applied to the model to assess capture uncertainty at 13 grid cell locations within the model domain. In general, results indicated that greater capture uncertainty for a given source (river, drains, or evapotranspiration) is associated with proximity of a pumping well to that source. The magnitude of maximum capture fraction uncertainties after 100 years of pumping for stream capture, drain capture, groundwater evapotranspiration capture, and storage change were plus or minus (±) 0.17, ±0.10, ±0.20, and ±0.22, respectively.

Nevada↗