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Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California from double-difference earthquake locations

The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggests that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2–3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ∼5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

California

Antarctica: A Keystone in a Changing World--Online Proceedings for the Tenth International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences. Santa Barbara, California, U.S.A.--August 26 to September 1, 2007

Overview: The International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences (ISAES) is held once every four years to provide an international forum for presenting research results and new ideas and for planning future Antarctic geoscience research projects. This Tenth ISAES coincides with the International Polar Year (IPY; 50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year) and has been structured to showcase the great breadth of geoscience research being done in Antarctic regions by more than more than 100 institutions located in over 30 countries. The science program of the Symposium encompasses six broad themes that cover key topics on evolution and interactions of the geosphere, cryosphere and biosphere and their cross-linkages with past and historic paleoclimates. Emphasis is also on deciphering the climate records in ice cores, geologic cores, rock outcrops and those inferred from climate models. New technologies for the coming decades of geoscience data collection are also highlighted. Ten keynote presentations at the symposium outline the foundation for the research sessions of the symposium and the structure of the Online Proceedings and Proceedings Book for the Tenth ISAES. The ISAES is traditionally a cornerstone meeting for the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In recognition of the Tenth ISAES being held in the U.S. for the first time in 30 years and during IPY, the publication of the symposium proceedings is being handled as a special collaborative effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, The National Academies Polar Research Board and The National Academies Press. The National Academies Polar Research Board oversees the activities of SCAR in the U.S. Special attention has been directed at publication formats for the symposium, to expedite the open and wide sharing of mature and preliminary research results presented in talks and posters at the Tenth ISAES. All symposium presentations are documented by a short Summary printed in the Symposium Program Booklet and either a short research paper or an extended abstract. The research papers and extended abstracts are compiled in this Online Proceedings and are replicated on a DVD-ROM that is placed in the back of the Tenth ISAES Proceedings Book. The Proceedings Book has printed versions of the keynote talks and an overview paper of the symposium. The short research papers and extended abstracts have been handled differently. Research papers present mature research results and syntheses. They have been peer-reviewed using standard journal procedures. Following revisions and acceptances by co-editors, the papers have been formatted for publication and proofread by authors. Each paper has been assigned a Digital Object Identification (DOI) number and separate html link, and posted online (as part of this USGS Open-File Report series) to ensure open and wide access to the research results. Extended abstracts focus on preliminary research results and have not been peer reviewed. They have had only minimal editorial review and revision. Authors have formatted and proofread their papers. Extended abstracts were not given DOI numbers and are included together in a separate chapter of this online Proceedings. USGS publications staff and Stanford-student editorial assistants indexed and compiled the PDF versions of the short research papers and extended abstracts for inclusion in this online Proceedings. USGS staff created the master DVD-ROM that contains a replica of the Online Proceedings for the Tenth ISAES, and provided the DVD-ROM copies that are included in the Tenth ISAES Proceedings Book published by The National Academies Press in the U.S. A team of more than 25 co-editors coordinated with the numerous authors and peer reviewers in handling the many research papers and extended abstracts that are included herein. Handling the large volume of short papers and extended abstracts, getting most of them onli

Open-File Report

Slip rate and earthquake recurrence along the central Septentrional fault, North American-Caribbean plate boundary, Dominican Republic

The Septentrional fault zone (SFZ) is the major North American-Caribbean, strike-slip, plate boundary fault at the longitude of eastern Hispaniola. The SFZ traverses the densely populated Cibao Valley of the Dominican Republic, forming a prominent scarp in alluvium. Our studies at four sites along the central SFZ are aimed at quantifying the late Quaternary behavior of this structure to better understand the seismic hazard it represents for the northeastern Caribbean. Our investigations of excavations at sites near Rio Cenovi show that the most recent ground-rupturing earthquake along this fault in the north central Dominican Republic occurred between A.D. 1040 and A.D. 1230, and involved a minimum of ???4 m of left-lateral slip and 2.3 m of normal dip slip at that site. Our studies of offset stream terraces at two locations, Rio Juan Lopez and Rio Licey, provide late Holocene slip rate estimates of 6-9 mm/yr and a maximum of 11-12 mm/yr, respectively, across the Septentrional fault. Combining these results gives a best estimate of 6-12 mm/yr for the slip rate across the SFZ. Three excavations, two near Tenares and one at the Rio Licey site, yielded evidence for the occurrence of earlier prehistoric earthquakes. Dates of strata associated with the penultimate event suggest that it occurred post-A.D. 30, giving a recurrence interval of 800-1200 years. These studies indicate that the SFZ has likely accumulated elastic strain sufficient to generate a major earthquake during the more than 800 years since it last slipped and should be considered likely to produce a destructive future earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Report from the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis group (ICE-SAG)

This document is the final report of the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis Group (ICESAG) that was formed by the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) as part of its preparations for the upcoming NASA Planetary Science Decadal Survey for 2023 through 2032 (see §1). Through telecons, one face-to-face meeting, and discussions with experts in relevant topics, ICE-SAG has identified high-priority science questions and key measurements that are needed to address them as well as the 2018 MEPAG Goals and the 2013-2022 NASA Planetary Science Decadal Survey goals [V&V, 2011] pertaining to ice1 and climate. Obtaining these measurements would yield dramatic improvements in our understanding of the climate history of Mars, which is critical to investigations of Martian geologic history and habitability and will also inform the potential of buried water ices as in situ resources for future human missions. In many ways, the Martian climate system serves as a laboratory for a broader understanding of planetary climate systems including the Earth’s, which is substantially more complex due to a denser atmosphere, a more active planetary interior, and interactions with oceans and abundant life, while operating under much more subtle orbital forcing. Thus, advancements in Martian climate science will have far-reaching impacts that extend to studies of the Earth and other planetary bodies.

Report

Global land cover mapping and characterization: present situation and future research priorities

The availability and accessibility of global land cover data sets plays an important role in many global change studies. The importance of such science‐based information is also reflected in a number of international, regional, and national projects and programs. Recent developments in earth observing satellite technology, information technology, computer hardware and software, and infrastructure development have helped developed better quality land cover data sets. As a result, such data sets are increasingly becoming available, the user‐base is ever widening, application areas have been expanding, and the potential of many other applications are enormous. Yet, we are far from producing high quality global land cover data sets. This paper examines the progress in the development of digital global land cover data, their availability, and current applications. Problems and opportunities are also explained. The overview sets the stage for identifying future research priorities needed for operational land cover assessment and monitoring.

Geocarto International

Environmental considerations related to mining of nonfuel minerals

Throughout most of human history, environmental stewardship during mining has not been a priority partly because of the lack of applicable laws and regulations and partly because of ignorance about the effects that mining can have on the environment. In the United States, the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, in conjunction with related laws, codified a more modern approach to mining, including the responsibility for environmental stewardship, and provided a framework for incorporating environmental protection into mine planning. Today, similar frameworks are in place in the other developed countries of the world, and international mining companies generally follow similar procedures wherever they work in the world. The regulatory guidance has fostered an international effort among all stakeholders to identify best practices for environmental stewardship. The modern approach to mining using best practices involves the following: (a) establishment of a pre-mining baseline from which to monitor environmental effects during mining and help establish geologically reasonable closure goals; (b) identification of environmental risks related to mining through standardized approaches; and (c) formulation of an environmental closure plan before the start of mining. A key aspect of identifying the environmental risks and mitigating those risks is understanding how the risks vary from one deposit type to another—a concept that forms the basis for geoenvironmental mineral-deposit models. Accompanying the quest for best practices is the goal of making mining sustainable into the future. Sustainable mine development is generally considered to be development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The concept extends beyond the availability of nonrenewable mineral commodities and includes the environmental and social effects of mine development. Global population growth, meanwhile, has decreased the percentage of inhabitable land available to support society’s material needs. Presently, the land area available to supply the mineral resources, energy resources, water, food, shelter, and waste disposal needs of all Earth’s inhabitants is estimated to be 135 square meters per person. Continued global population growth will only increase the challenges of sustainable mining. Current trends in mining are also expected to lead to new environmental challenges in the future, among which are mine-waste management issues related to mining larger deposits for lower ore grade; water-management issues related to both the mining of larger deposits and the changes in precipitation brought about by climate change; and greenhouse gas issues related to reducing the carbon footprint of larger, more energy-intensive mining operations.

Professional Paper

Airborne remote sensing for geology and the environment; present and future

In 1988, a group of leading experts from government, academia, and industry attended a workshop on airborne remote sensing sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and hosted by the Branch of Geophysics. The purpose of the workshop was to examine the scientific rationale for airborne remote sensing in support of government earth science in the next decade. This report has arranged the six resulting working-group reports under two main headings: (1) Geologic Remote Sensing, for the reports on geologic mapping, mineral resources, and fossil fuels and geothermal resources; and (2) Environmental Remote Sensing, for the reports on environmental geology, geologic hazards, and water resources. The intent of the workshop was to provide an evaluation of demonstrated capabilities, their direct extensions, and possible future applications, and this was the organizational format used for the geologic remote sensing reports. The working groups in environmental remote sensing chose to present their reports in a somewhat modified version of this format. A final section examines future advances and limitations in the field. There is a large, complex, and often bewildering array of remote sensing data available. Early remote sensing studies were based on data collected from airborne platforms. Much of that technology was later extended to satellites. The original 80-m-resolution Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) has now been largely superseded by the 30-m-resolution Thematic Mapper (TM) system that has additional spectral channels. The French satellite SPOT provides higher spatial resolution for channels equivalent to MSS. Low-resolution (1 km) data are available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's AVHRR system, which acquires reflectance and day and night thermal data daily. Several experimental satellites have acquired limited data, and there are extensive plans for future satellites including those of Japan (JERS), Europe (ESA), Canada (Radarsat), and the United States (EOS). There are currently two national airborne remote sensing programs (photography, radar) with data archived at the USGS' EROS Data Center. Airborne broadband multispectral data (comparable to Landsat MSS and TM but involving several more channels) for limited geographic areas also are available for digital processing and analysis. Narrow-band imaging spectrometer data are available for some NASA experiment sites and can be acquired for other locations commercially. Remote sensing data and derivative images, because of the uniform spatial coverage, availability at different resolutions, and digital format, are becoming important data sets for geographic information system (GIS) analyses. Examples range from overlaying digitized geologic maps on remote sensing images and draping these over topography, to maps of mineral distribution and inferred abundance. A large variety of remote sensing data sets are available, with costs ranging from a few dollars per square mile for satellite digital data to a few hundred dollars per square mile for airborne imaging spectrometry. Computer processing and analysis costs routinely surpass these expenses because of the equipment and expertise necessary for information extraction and interpretation. Effective use requires both an understanding of the current methodology and an appreciation of the most cost-effective solution.

Bulletin

What is the Anthropocene?

Since Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer introduced the word “Anthropocene” in 2000, scientists and nonscientists alike have used the word to highlight the concept that we are now living in a time when the global environment, at some level, is shaped by humankind rather than vice versa. Humans have significantly altered Earth’s land surface, oceans, rivers, atmosphere, flora, and fauna. By its emphasis on the here and now and on what humans have done and can do in the future, the word “Anthropocene” has served as a call to action for environmental sustainability and responsibility [ Crutzen and Stoermer , 2000; Waters et al. , 2014; Ruddiman et al. , 2015]. So far, however, the term “Anthropocene” has not been integrated into the official Geologic Time Scale, which geologists use to divide the past into named blocks based on the rock record. In 2016 or thereabouts, the International Commission on Stratigraphy—the scientific body that maintains the official Geologic Time Scale—will consider a proposal to formalize a definition of this term. It’s a decision that has both semantic and scientific implications and may have legal implications as well.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Hyperspectral narrowband data propel gigantic leap in the earth remote sensing

Hyperspectral narrowbands (HNBs) capture data as nearly continuous “spectral signatures” rather than a “few spectral data points” along the electromagnetic spectrum as with multispectral broadbands (MBBs). Almost all of satellite remote sensing of the Earth in the twentieth century was conducted using MBB data from sensors such as the Landsat-series, Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), SPOT (Système Pour l’Observation de la Terre), and the Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellites. These systems typically provide 4 to 9 broad spectral wavebands spread from 400 to 2500 nm, often with one or two additional bands in the thermal range. Significant advances in the study of the Earth have been made based on these data [Thenkabail et al., 2018a,b,c,d; Thenkabail et al., 2015a,b,c]. Possibilities of great advances that can be made using HNB data over MBB data are well established based on studies conducted using hyperspectral sensors such as the hand-held spectroradiometers, the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), and spaceborne Earth Observing -1 (EO-1) Hyperion [Thenkabail 2018a,b,c,d]. The twenty-first century is already seeing the dawn of hyperspectral imaging data from sensors such as the German Aerospace Center’s (DLR’s) DESIS (DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer) onboard the MUSES (Multi-User System for Earth Sensing) platform on the International Space Station (ISS), the polar-orbiting Italian Space Agency’s (ASI) PRISMA (PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa), and many other upcoming sensors such as the NASA Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) [Thenkabail et al., 2018a,b,c,d]. These satellites acquire data in hundreds of narrow spectral bands of 1 to 10 nm width, typically between 400 to 2500 nm; also future planned missions will be extending HNBs to the thermal (9,000 to 14,000 nm) electromagnetic spectrum. This expansion creates a quantum leap in new data, new information, and myriad possible new applications in the study of the Earth in addition to great advances in existing applications. Given the above, the objective of this article is to provide insights on the gigantic leap in our understanding, modeling, mapping, and monitoring of the Earth that can be made using HNB relative to MBB by focusing on agricultural and vegetation applications. We will address this in four aspects: 1. Comparison between HNB and MBB data; 2. Spectral libraries of agricultural crops; 3. HNB data analysis in general; and 4. HNB analysis using machine learning (ML) and cloud computing.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing.

Interactive visualization to advance earthquake simulation

The geological sciences are challenged to manage and interpret increasing volumes of data as observations and simulations increase in size and complexity. For example, simulations of earthquake-related processes typically generate complex, time-varying data sets in two or more dimensions. To facilitate interpretation and analysis of these data sets, evaluate the underlying models, and to drive future calculations, we have developed methods of interactive visualization with a special focus on using immersive virtual reality (VR) environments to interact with models of Earth's surface and interior. Virtual mapping tools allow virtual "field studies" in inaccessible regions. Interactive tools allow us to manipulate shapes in order to construct models of geological features for geodynamic models, while feature extraction tools support quantitative measurement of structures that emerge from numerical simulation or field observations, thereby enabling us to improve our interpretation of the dynamical processes that drive earthquakes. VR has traditionally been used primarily as a presentation tool, albeit with active navigation through data. Reaping the full intellectual benefits of immersive VR as a tool for scientific analysis requires building on the method's strengths, that is, using both 3D perception and interaction with observed or simulated data. This approach also takes advantage of the specialized skills of geological scientists who are trained to interpret, the often limited, geological and geophysical data available from field observations. ?? Birkhaueser 2008.

Pure and Applied Geophysics

The role of monitoring and research in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in framing our understanding of the effects of disease on amphibians

Emerging infectious disease threatens amphibian biodiversity worldwide, including in landscapes that are protected from many anthropogenic stressors. We summarized data from studies in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), one of the largest and most complete temperate-zone ecosystems on Earth, to assess the current state of knowledge about ranaviruses and the novel amphibian chytrid fungus (Bd) in this landscape, and to provide insight into future threats and conservation strategies. Our comprehension of these amphibian diseases in the GYE is based on >20 years of monitoring, surveys, population studies, and opportunistic observations of mortality events. Research indicates that local species are affected differently, depending on temperature, community structure, and location in the GYE. Bd has not been linked to die-offs in the GYE but evidence for ongoing reductions in survival contributes to foundational data about the effects of this pathogen in North America. Localized mortality events attributed to, or consistent with, disease from ranaviruses, are widespread in the GYE, but there is less information on how ranaviruses affect amphibian vital rates. The significance of disease in the long-term persistence of amphibians in the GYE is linked to anticipated changes in climate, especially drought. Additionally, expected increases in visitor use, and its associated impacts, have the potential to exacerbate the effects of disease. Long-term information from this large, intact landscape helps to frame our understanding of the effects of disease on amphibians and provides data that can contribute to management decisions, mitigation strategies, and forecasting efforts.

Wyoming

Geologic and geophysical maps of the Las Vegas 30' x 60' quadrangle, Clark and Nye counties, Nevada, and Inyo County, California

Las Vegas and Pahrump are two of the fastest growing cities in the US, and the shortage of water looms as among the greatest future problems for these cities. These new maps of the Las Vegas 30 x 60-minute quadrangle provide a geologic and geophysical framework and fundamental earth science database needed to address societal issues such as ground water supply and contamination, surface flood, landslide, and seismic hazards, and soil properties and their changing impact by and on urbanization. The mountain ranges surrounding Las Vegas and Pahrump consist of Mesozoic, Paleozoic and Proterozoic rocks. A majority of these rocks are Paleozoic carbonate rocks that are part of Nevada's carbonate rock aquifer province. The Spring Mountains represent a major recharge site in the province, where maximum altitude is 3,632 m (Charleston Peak) above sea level. Rocks in the Sheep and Las Vegas Ranges and Spring Mountains contain correlative, northeast-striking, southeast-verging thrust faults that are part of the Cretaceous, Sevier orogenic belt. These thrusts were offset during the Miocene by the Las Vegas Valley shear system (LVVSZ). We conducted new mapping in the Blue Diamond area, highlighting refined work on the Bird Spring thrust, newly studied ancient landslides, and gravity-slide blocks. We conducted new mapping in the Las Vegas Range and mapped previously unrecognized structures such as the Valley thrust and fold belt; recognition of these structures has led to a refined correlation of Mesozoic thrust faults across the LVVSZ. New contributions in the quadrangle also include a greatly refined stratigraphy of Paleozoic bedrock units based on conodont biostragraphy. We collected over 200 conodont samples in the quadrangle and established stratigraphic reference sections used to correlate units across the major Mesozoic thrust faults. Quaternary deposits cover about half of the map area and underlie most of the present urbanized area. Deposits consist of large coalescing alluvial fans that grade downslope to extensive areas of fine-grained sediment indicative of groundwater-discharge during the Pleistocene. In the central areas of Las Vegas and Pahrump valleys, Quaternary fault scarps associated with past ground-water discharge deposits suggest a genetic relationship. In collaboration with NBMG and University of Nevada, a variety of ages of gravelly alluvium are newly mapped using surficial characteristics and soil development, along with reassessment of previously published mapping during compilation. Reconnaissance geochronology (thermoluminescence and U-series) of eolian and authigenic components of surficial and buried soils and spring deposits is applied to test hypotheses of geomorphic and hydrologic response to climate change over the past 100 k.y.). The major structure in the Las Vegas quadrangle is the LVVSZ. Because the LVVSZ is concealed by thick basin-fill deposits of Quaternary and Tertiary age, it was characterized primarily based on geophysics. Likewise, the newly described State line fault system in Pahrump Valley has also been characterized by geophysics, where geophysically inferred structures correlate remarkably with surface structures defined by our new geologic mapping in the Mound Spring and Hidden Hills Ranch 7.5-minute quadrangles.

Scientific Investigations Map

Wildlife disease in the Colorado Delta as an indicator of ecosystem health

Ecosystem health and management are relatively new paradigms for environmental management (Costanza et al., 1992) and will be continually redefined and reevaluated relative to their purpose and utility in serving human society (Costanza et al., 1992; Sutter, 1993; Grumbine, 1994; Lackey, 1998, 1999). The stimulus for ecosystem management is often associated with sustaining or restoring ecosystem health to provide values sought by humans (Costanza et al., 1992). We accept the concepts of ecosystem health and management as useful precepts. However, we argue that the orientation in serving human values often has resulted in inadequate attention being given to nonhuman species. The need to address ecosystem health for the benefit of all species that share Planet Earth is noted by Merchant (1997). This humanistic viewpoint also has economic benefits that are part of the wealth that we will pass on to future generations (Pulliam, 1995). Despite the viewpoints just noted, disease occurrence in wildlife receives inadequate consideration with regard to perspectives of ecosystem health and as a focus for ecosystem management. Evidence for this view is the limited resources allocated for wildlife disease programs and prevention efforts, and persistent attitudes within the wildlife conservation community that disease is a “natural event,” not influenced by environmental conditions or anthropogenic insults.

California

Part 3: Volcano investigations on Umnak Island, 1946

Umnak Island is a dumbbell-shaped island in the eastern part of the Aleutian Islands. The island is 70 miles long and trends northeast-southwest. During 1946 volcano investigations were begun on the island and geologic mapping of most of northeastern Umnak Island was completed. Okmok Volcano, a large, broad volcanic mountain rising to altitudes of 3,000 to 3,500 feet, occupies the central portion of northeastern Umnak Island. Fort Glenn, and Army airbase, is situated on the eastern end of the island, approximately 9 miles east of Okmok Volcano. The central part of Okmok Volcano is indented by Okmok caldera, a large cliff-rimmed volcanic depression, 7%, miles in maximum diameter. The floor of the caldera is 1,500 to 2,500 feet below the caldera rim. Nine large cinder cones and many small ones lie on the caldera floor, chiefly along two arcuate zones. The caldera is drained by Crater Creek, which flows through a deep gorge cut in the northeastern wall of the caldera, and into Bering Sea. Mount Tulik (4,111 feet altitude) and Mount Idak (1,918 feet altitude) arc important centers of ancient volcanism on the flanks of Okmok Volcano. The geologic history of Okmok Volcano falls into three stages: The first includes the upbuilding of an ancient cone—Mount Okmok—to an altitude of at least 6;500 feet on the site of the present caldera; the second encompasses the destruction in a castastrophic eruption of the summit cone and the formation of the caldera; the third comprises events since the great eruption. The earliest activity at Mount Okmok probably dates hack to the late Tertiary period. A composite cone, concave-sided in profile, was built by the alternate eruption of ash, coarse pyroclastics, and basalt flows. During the late Pleistocene, volcanic activity at Mount Okmok was greatly reduced and a topography of late youth was carved on the lower slopes by streams and valley glaciers. The summit of Mount Okmok was upwarped and dikes and necks were injected into the resulting fractures. A large volcano at the site of Mount Idak was active during part of the period of upbuilding at Mount Okmok but became extinct during the middle Pleistocene. A parasitic vent, Mount Tulik, became active during the late Pleistocene and built a steep-sided cone before it became extinct, shortly before the formation of Okmok caldera. A cataclysmic eruption terminated the period of dissection at Mount Okmok, 10,000 or more years ago. Part of the summit was blown away by the explosive violence of this eruption. Nuees ardentes (glowing clouds) and mudflows deposited tuff-breccia and agglomerate in the glacial valleys; later phases of the eruption blanketed the landscape with ash. Near the end of the eruption, the remaining upper part of the volcano collapsed along arcuate fractures: large blocks subsided several thousand feet and are now concealed in the caldera Poor beneath later deposits. A large arcuate fault block which subsided less than other blocks stands above the floor in the northeastern part of the caldera. After the eruption, water collected in the caldera, forming a lake. Small but frequently active cones built islands in the lake and covered its bottom with pyroclastic debris. The lake eventually overflowed the lowest point in the rim of the caldera, and Crater Creek Gorge was carved, draining the lake and dissecting its deposits. Renewed movement along faults at the head of Crater Creek Gorge later raised a harrier which temporarily dammed the drainage and formed a second caldera lake. Readjustments among subsided blocks in the caldera floor resulted in the folding of postcaldera deposits at several localities. Much of the caldera floor has been covered by lava flows extruded from several cones since the draining of the first caldera lake. In general, however, volcanic activity seems to have declined since the great caldera-forming eruption. Seven eruptions from cones on the caldera floor have been recorded since 1817; the latest occurred in 1945. As part of the geochemical program for the study of Okmok Volcano, temperatures of fumaroles were measured and samples of the products of the volcanic activity were analyzed. Average temperatures of fumaroles at one source of the 1945 lava low dropped from 320° C. on July 19 to 90° C. on September 5. The temperatures of fumaroles associated with the crater vents on both Cones A and C ranged from 95° C. to 97" C., which is slightly below the condensation point of steam, indicating the presence of minor quantities of gases other than steam. The magmatic gases of fumaroles on Cone A consisted of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide in about equal amounts. The lack of halogen acid gases in the fumaroles and the steadily dropping temperatures arc interpreted as indicating that the present quiescence of Cone A will continue for many months. Solid reaction products from areas of fumarolic activity on Cone A are sulfates of sodium, calcium, and iron. The presence of hydrogen sulfide as the dominant sulfur gas at Cone C is interpreted as indicating the dying stages of the present cycle of activity of Cone C. Thermal springs along the north base of Cone D have a total discharge of 115 cubic feet per second. Their average temperature is approximately 7° C. above the annual mean. From these figures it is calculated that about 21,000 kilogram calories per second are being given off by Cone D. The spring waters contain minute quantities of boron which is indicative of a magmatic source for a small part of the water. Hence, Cone D though quiescent is not extinct. Evidence is presented to show that most of the spring water from Cone D is meteoric in origin. Thermal waters in the southwestern part of Umnak Island at Hot Springs Cove and south of Geyser Bight contain lithium, boron, arsenic, and antimony in solution. These elements are regarded as derived from underlying magmas that are in an advanced state of crystallization and hence not likely to give rise in the near future to large-scale volcanic activity. Three portable seismographs were placed on the flanks of Okmok Volcano and were in operation during most of the period from June 1 to October 1. During this period several slight tremors and one moderate tremor, all of distant origin, were registered, but no tremors attributable to Okmok Volcano were recorded. The lack of tremor records, however, may have been due more to the insensitivity of the instruments than to the absence of tremors. Earth-current investigations were carried on during August and September by comparison of records obtained from a base station at Fort Glenn with those from a station 1 V2 miles southwest of Mount Tulik. The records obtained indicate that no difference in magnitude or direction of earth currents existed between the Fort Glenn and Mount Tulik areas. The similarity of record obtained is indicative of the absence of a disturbing factor such as a large body of live magma beneath Okmok Volcano. Future eruptions of Okmok Volcano are expected to he of mild to moderate intensity, and will he chiefly in the form of ash falls from vents inside the caldera. There would be a great menace—in the form of lava flows, nuees ardentes, and mudflows—to installations at Fort Glenn if a new center of volcanism came into existence on the east slope of Okmok Volcano. Small postcaldera cones now exposed there indicate that extra-caldera eruptions have occurred in the recent past and can be expected in the future. The possibility of another catastrophic eruption of the caldera-forming type, however, is remote. Okmok Volcano should be kept under close observation, partly because of its possible threat to Fort Glenn and partly because it is a readily accessible locale for accumulating information on details of volcanic processes, applicable to other volcanoes in the Aleutian arc and elsewhere.

Alaska

Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity

Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO 2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright rejection of models from the ensemble. Taking advantage of multiple lines of evidence used to construct the best estimate of the earth’s climate sensitivity, the Bayesian Model Averaging framework produces an unbiased posterior probability distribution of model weights. The updated multi-model ensemble projects end-of-century global mean surface temperature increases of 2 o C for a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 5 o C for a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These estimates are lower than those produced using a simple multi-model mean for the CMIP6 ensemble. The results are also similar to results from a model culling approach, but retain some weight on low-probability models, allowing for consideration of the possibility that the true value could lie at the extremes of the assessed distribution. Our results showcase Bayesian Model Averaging as a path forward to project future climate change that is commensurate with the available scientific evidence.

Communications Earth & Environment

Multi-scale remote sensing sagebrush characterization with regression trees over Wyoming, USA: laying a foundation for monitoring

agebrush ecosystems in North America have experienced extensive degradation since European settlement. Further degradation continues from exotic invasive plants, altered fire frequency, intensive grazing practices, oil and gas development, and climate change – adding urgency to the need for ecosystem-wide understanding. Remote sensing is often identified as a key information source to facilitate ecosystem-wide characterization, monitoring, and analysis; however, approaches that characterize sagebrush with sufficient and accurate local detail across large enough areas to support this paradigm are unavailable. We describe the development of a new remote sensing sagebrush characterization approach for the state of Wyoming, U.S.A. This approach integrates 2.4 m QuickBird, 30 m Landsat TM, and 56 m AWiFS imagery into the characterization of four primary continuous field components including percent bare ground, percent herbaceous cover, percent litter, and percent shrub, and four secondary components including percent sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), percent big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), percent Wyoming sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Wyomingensis), and shrub height using a regression tree. According to an independent accuracy assessment, primary component root mean square error (RMSE) values ranged from 4.90 to 10.16 for 2.4 m QuickBird, 6.01 to 15.54 for 30 m Landsat, and 6.97 to 16.14 for 56 m AWiFS. Shrub and herbaceous components outperformed the current data standard called LANDFIRE, with a shrub RMSE value of 6.04 versus 12.64 and a herbaceous component RMSE value of 12.89 versus 14.63. This approach offers new advancements in sagebrush characterization from remote sensing and provides a foundation to quantitatively monitor these components into the future.

Wyoming

Climate and landform interact to control the source and transport of nitrate in Pacific Northwest rivers

The hydrological effects of climate change are documented in many regions; however, climate-driven impacts to the source and transport of river nutrients remain poorly understood. Understanding the factors controlling nutrient dynamics across river systems is critical to preserve ecosystem function yet challenging given the complexity of landscape and climate interactions. Here, we harness a large regional dataset of nitrate (NO 3 – ) yield, concentration, and isotopic composition (δ 15 N and δ 18 O) to evaluate the strength of hydroclimate and landscape variables in controlling the seasonal source and transport of NO 3 – . We show that hydroclimate strongly influenced the seasonality of river NO 3 – , producing distinct, source-dependent NO 3 – regimes across rivers from two mountain ranges. Riverine responses to hydroclimate were also constrained by watershed-scale topographic features, demonstrating that while regional climate strongly influences the timing of river NO 3 – transport, watershed topography plays a distinct role in mediating the sensitivity of river NO 3 – dynamics to future change.

Washington

Workshop on applications of luminescence techniques to Earth resource studies

The purpose of the Workshop on Luminescence Techniques was threefold: (1) to review the state-of-the-art capabilities of luminescence methods, (2) to consider a variety of concepts for the development of future luminescence sensor systems, and (3) to discuss appropriate research and development strategies for advancing the current state-of-the-art.

Technical Report