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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

Range-wide population genetic analysis of Seaside Sparrows (Ammospiza maritima) supports at least five distinct population segments that do not align with current subspecies descriptions

As an obligate salt marsh species, Seaside Sparrows ( Ammospiza maritima ) are vulnerable to numerous threats including climate change, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and both natural and anthropogenic disasters. Of the 9 recognized subspecies, 2 are extinct and 1 is endangered. Previous genetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite loci showed that current taxonomy does not accurately reflect underlying genetic diversity, with possible consequences for the distribution of conservation resources. To further inform Seaside Sparrow management, we comprehensively describe genetic structure among 24 range-wide sampling locations that include all extant subspecies. We inferred population structure from several thousand single-nucleotide polymorphisms collected from 272 individuals via restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing. Principal components, pairwise F ST values, and clustering approaches suggest that Seaside Sparrows on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are distinct and consist of at least 5 genetic clusters: 1 in southern Texas, 1 ranging from Aransas County, Texas, to Mississippi; 1 in western Florida; and 2 or 3 genetic groups intermixed along a gradient on the Atlantic Coast. These genetic clusters are not consistent with current subspecies taxonomy and could be used as distinct population segments (DPSs) to inform the most efficient allocation of resources to Seaside Sparrow conservation. Our results regarding the endangered subspecies, A. m. mirabilis , from southern Florida are inconclusive due to low sample size, but indicate that it is distinct and may represent a sixth DPS. Based on our genetic results, we recommend additional song and morphometric analyses in western Florida and a closer study of the boundary between the breeding distributions of A. m. maritima and A. m. macgillivraii to ensure the proper identification of DPSs.

Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard , exposure , affected populations, vulnerability and risk , and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:

SSTL UK-DMC SLIM-6 data quality assessment

Satellite data from the Surrey Satellite Technology Limited (SSTL) United Kingdom (UK) Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) were assessed for geometric and radiometric quality. The UK-DMC Surrey Linear Imager 6 (SLIM-6) sensor has a 32-m spatial resolution and a ground swath width of 640 km. The UK-DMC SLIM-6 design consists of a three-band imager with green, red, and near-infrared bands that are set to similar bandpass as Landsat bands 2, 3, and 4. The UK-DMC data consisted of imagery registered to Landsat orthorectified imagery produced from the GeoCover program. Relief displacements within the UK-DMC SLIM-6 imagery were accounted for by using global 1-km digital elevation models available through the Global Land One-km Base Elevation (GLOBE) Project. Positional accuracy and relative band-to-band accuracy were measured. Positional accuracy of the UK-DMC SLIM-6 imagery was assessed by measuring the imagery against digital orthophoto quadrangles (DOQs), which are designed to meet national map accuracy standards at 1 : 24 000 scales; this corresponds to a horizontal root-mean-square accuracy of about 6 m. The UK-DMC SLIM-6 images were typically registered to within 1.0-1.5 pixels to the DOQ mosaic images. Several radiometric artifacts like striping, coherent noise, and flat detector were discovered and studied. Indications are that the SSTL UK-DMC SLIM-6 data have few artifacts and calibration challenges, and these can be adjusted or corrected via calibration and processing algorithms. The cross-calibration of the UK-DMC SLIM-6 and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus was performed using image statistics derived from large common areas observed by the two sensors.

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing

Quantifying resilience

The biosphere is under unprecedented pressure, reflected in rapid changes in our global ecological, social, technological and economic systems. In many cases, ecological and social systems can adapt to these changes over time, but when a critical threshold is surpassed, a system under stress can undergo catastrophic change and reorganize into a different state. The concept of resilience, introduced more than 40 years ago in the ecological sciences, captures the behaviour of systems that can occur in alternative states. The original definition of resilience forwarded by Holling ( 1973 ) is still the most useful. It defines resilience as the amount of disturbance that a system can withstand before it shifts into an alternative stable state. The idea of alternative stable states has clear and profound implications for ecological management. Coral reefs, for example, are high-diversity systems that provide key ecosystem services such as fisheries and coastal protection. Human impacts are causing significant, ongoing reef degradation, and many reefs have shifted from coral- to algal-dominated states in response to anthropogenic pressures such as elevated water temperatures and overfishing. Understanding and differentiating between the factors that help maintain reefs in coral-dominated states vs. those that facilitate a shift to an undesired algal-dominated state is a critical step towards sound management and conservation of these, and other, important social–ecological systems. Resilience has gained popularity among both academicians and laypeople, as a term meant to describe a systems’ ability to withstand disturbance. Resilience has become a buzzword in the last decade, as shown by its increasing appearance in calls for research proposals and scientific citation data bases. The term resilience has in many cases lost the clarity of the original definition and in fact is frequently used in a manner in direct opposition to the original definition. Many current uses of the concept are loose and incorrect. The term is becoming increasingly used in a normative sense (Brand & Jax 2007 ), as if resilience were a desirable quality of systems. However, even systems in highly undesirable states, such as macro-algae dominated reefs, or city cores in poverty traps, may be highly resilient, which is to say they withstand attempts to transform them into different (desirable) states. Operationalizing the concept of resilience for application and management has been difficult. Misuse of the term can have significant negative impacts, because resilience is being used to help guide responses to natural disasters and to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and urban systems and has been driving international research priorities. Resilience has been argued to be a basic emergent property of systems, a process or a rate. We focus on the original concept as described by Holling, which is that of an emergent system property; when a system is in a desirable state and managers wish to enhance resilience, or when the system is in an undesirable state and managers wish to erode resilience and foster a transformation to an alternative state. Fostering or eroding resilience is a process. When a system is perturbed but resilience is not exceeded, then the recovery can be measured as a rate. Several frameworks to operationalize resilience have been proposed. A decade ago, a special feature focused on quantifying resilience was published in the journal Ecosystems (Carpenter, Westley & Turner 2005 ). The approach there was towards identifying surrogates of resilience, but few of the papers proposed quantifiable metrics. Consequently, many ecological resilience frameworks remain vague and difficult to quantify, a problem that this special feature aims to address. However, considerable progress has been made during the last decade (e.g. Pope, Allen & Angeler 2014 ). Although some argue that resilience is best kept as an unquantifiable, vague concept (Quinlan et al . 2016 ), to be useful for managers, there must be concrete guidance regarding how and what to manage and how to measure success (Garmestani, Allen & Benson 2013 ; Spears et al . 2015 ). Ideas such as ‘resilience thinking’ have utility in helping stakeholders conceptualize their systems, but provide little guidance on how to make resilience useful for ecosystem management, other than suggesting an ambiguous, Goldilocks approach of being just right (e.g. diverse, but not too diverse; connected, but not too connected). Here, we clarify some prominent resilience terms and concepts, introduce and synthesize the papers in this special feature on quantifying resilience and identify core unanswered questions related to resilience.

Journal of Applied Ecology

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

Global Change Biology

Mangrove forest distributions and dynamics (1975–2005) of the tsunami-affected region of Asia

Aim We aimed to estimate the present extent of tsunami-affected mangrove forests and determine the rates and causes of deforestation from 1975 to 2005. Location Our study region covers the tsunami-affected coastal areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Burma (Myanmar), Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka in Asia. Methods We interpreted time-series Landsat data using a hybrid supervised and unsupervised classification approach. Landsat data were geometrically corrected to an accuracy of plus-or-minus half a pixel, an accuracy necessary for change analysis. Each image was normalized for solar irradiance by converting digital number values to the top-of-the atmosphere reflectance. Ground truth data and existing maps and data bases were used to select training samples and also for iterative labelling. We used a post-classification change detection approach. Results were validated with the help of local experts and/or high-resolution commercial satellite data. Results The region lost 12% of its mangrove forests from 1975 to 2005, to a present extent of c . 1,670,000 ha. Rates and causes of deforestation varied both spatially and temporally. Annual deforestation was highest in Burma ( c . 1%) and lowest in Sri Lanka (0.1%). In contrast, mangrove forests in India and Bangladesh remained unchanged or gained a small percentage. Net deforestation peaked at 137,000 ha during 1990–2000, increasing from 97,000 ha during 1975–90, and declining to 14,000 ha during 2000–05. The major causes of deforestation were agricultural expansion (81%), aquaculture (12%) and urban development (2%). Main conclusions We assessed and monitored mangrove forests in the tsunami-affected region of Asia using the historical archive of Landsat data. We also measured the rates of change and determined possible causes. The results of our study can be used to better understand the role of mangrove forests in saving lives and property from natural disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami, and to identify possible areas for conservation, restoration and rehabilitation.

Journal of Biogeography

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire‐making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human‐set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke‐related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas‐induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre‐human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Journal of Biogeography

Optical data processing and projected applications of the ERTS-1 imagery covering the 1973 Mississippi River Valley floods

Flooding along the Mississippi River and some of its tributaries was detected by the multispectral scanner (MSS) on the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS-1) on at least three orbits during the spring of 1973. The ERTS data provided the first opportunity for mapping the regional extent of flooding at the time of the imagery. Special optical data processing techniques were used to produce a variety of multispectral color composites enhancing flood-plain details. One of these, a 2-color composite of near infrared bands 6 and 7, was enlarged and registered to 1:250,000-scale topographic maps and used as the basis for preparation of flood image maps. Two specially filtered 3-color composites of MSS bands 5, 6, and 7 and 4, 5, and 7 were prepared to aid in the interpretation of the data. The extent of the flooding was vividly depicted on a single image by 2-color temporal composites produced on the additive-color viewer using band 7 flood data superimposed on pre-flood band 7 images. On May 24, when the floodwaters at St. Louis receded to bankfull stage, imagery was again obtained by ERTS. Analysis of temporal data composites of the pre-flood and post-flood band 7 images indicate that changes in surface reflectance characteristics caused by the flooding can be delineated, thus making it possible to map the overall area flooded without the necessity of a real-time system to track and image the peak flood waves. Regional planning and disaster relief agencies such as the Corps of Engineers, Office of Emergency Preparedness, Soil Conservation Service, interstate river basin commissions and state agencies, as well as private lending and insurance institutions, have indicated strong potential applications for ERTS image-maps of flood-prone areas.

Mississippi River

Overview of Mount St. Helens volcanic eruption

Dormant since 1857, Mount St. Helens Volcano in southwestern Washington stirred from its repose to erupt on March 27, 1980, following a week of premonitory earthquake activity. The eruption was the first in the conterminous United States since the 1914-1921 activity of Lassen Peak, California. The eruptive activity through May 17 was intermittent and relatively mild, but the accompanying seismic activity remained intense. On May 18, a catastrophic eruption, triggered by a magnitude 5.0 earthquake, produced a massive landslide/debris avalanche, a devastating lateral "blast," pyroclastic flows, mudflows, and an ash column that rose more than 20 km into the stratosphere. Winds carried the ash easterly, and more than 7 cm of ash was deposited locally in parts of eastern Washington. The landslide/debris avalanche and associated mudflows caused flooding of the Toutle and Cowlitz River valleys, which carried sediment as far as the confluence with the Columbia, where it choked off the channel to navigation. Smaller but significant explosive eruptions followed in May, June, July, August, and October, 1980, with lava domes being extruded in the crater following the June, August, and October eruptions. Subsequently in December 1980 and February 1981, lava domes were extruded without significant preceding explosive activity. Except for the latter two, each dome was partly or wholly destroyed by succeeding explosive events. Scientists expect similar activity to continue for months or years--possibly even decades. The Mount St. Helens eruptions severely tested the ability of scientists to respond swiftly and effectively in assisting public officials during a geologic disaster. At the same time, they shall continue to provide an unprecedented opportunity for the systematic investigation of volcanic phenomena, and hopefully, the insight to meet possible future eruptions there and elsewhere in the Cascade Range with equal success.

Washington

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake

The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

Science

Shallow landslide hazard map of Seattle, Washington

Landslides, particularly debris flows, have long been a significant cause of damage and destruction to people and property in the Puget Sound region. Following the years of 1996 and 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency designated Seattle as a “Project Impact” city with the goal of encouraging the city to become more disaster resistant to landslides and other natural hazards. A major recommendation of the Project Impact council was that the city and the U.S. Geological Survey collaborate to produce a landslide hazard map. An exceptional data set archived by the city containing more than 100 yr of landslide data from severe storm events allowed comparison of actual landslide locations with those predicted by slope-stability modeling. We used an infinite-slope analysis, which models slope segments as rigid friction blocks, to estimate the susceptibility of slopes to debris flows, which are water-laden slurries that can form from shallow failures of soil and weathered bedrock and can travel at high velocities down steep slopes. Data used for the analysis consisted of a digital slope map derived from recent light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery of Seattle, recent digital geologic mapping of the city, and shear-strength test data for the geologic units found in the surrounding area. The combination of these data layers within a geographic information system (GIS) platform allowed us to create a shallow landslide hazard map for Seattle.

Washington

Interactive terrain visualization enables virtual field work during rapid scientific response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake

The moment magnitude (M w ) 7.0 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake is the first major earthquake for which a large-footprint LiDAR (light detection and ranging) survey was acquired within several weeks of the event. Here, we describe the use of virtual reality data visualization to analyze massive amounts (67 GB on disk) of multiresolution terrain data during the rapid scientific response to a major natural disaster. In particular, we describe a method for conducting virtual field work using both desktop computers and a 4-sided, 22 m 3 CAVE immersive virtual reality environment, along with KeckCAVES (Keck Center for Active Visualization in the Earth Sciences) software tools LiDAR Viewer, to analyze LiDAR point-cloud data, and Crusta, for 2.5 dimensional surficial geologic mapping on a bare-earth digital elevation model. This system enabled virtual field work that yielded remote observations of the topographic expression of active faulting within an ∼75-km-long section of the eastern Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault spanning the 2010 epicenter. Virtual field observations indicated that the geomorphic evidence of active faulting and ancient surface rupture varies along strike. Landform offsets of 6–50 m along the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault east of the 2010 epicenter and closest to Port-au-Prince attest to repeated recent surface-rupturing earthquakes there. In the west, the fault trace is well defined by displaced landforms, but it is not as clear as in the east. The 2010 epicenter is within a transition zone between these sections that extends from Grand Goâve in the west to Fayette in the east. Within this transition, between L'Acul (lat 72°40′W) and the Rouillone River (lat 72°35′W), the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault is undefined along an embayed low-relief range front, with little evidence of recent surface rupture. Based on the geometry of the eastern and western faults that show evidence of recent surface rupture, we propose that the 2010 event occurred within a stepover that appears to have served as a long-lived boundary between rupture segments, explaining the lack of 2010 surface rupture. This study demonstrates how virtual reality–based data visualization has the potential to transform rapid scientific response by enabling virtual field studies and real-time interactive analysis of massive terrain data sets.

Geosphere

Overview of catastrophic landslides of South America in the twentieth century

This chapter summarizes the processes and effects of the most notable catastrophic mass movement events in South America in the twentieth century. We present 23 case histories of individual and regional landslide events, beginning at the northeast terminus of the Andes Mountains in Venezuela, proceeding counterclockwise down the Pacific Coast to the southern Andes of Chile and Argentina, and ending with discussion of catastrophic regional mass movements in the Brazilian Highlands. The types of landslides involved in these disasters ranged from high-velocity rockslides and rock or debris avalanches to high-to medium-velocity debris flows and mudflows. Most casualties were caused by high-velocity debris avalanches and high-to medium-velocity, highly mobile, long-runout debris flows. A common, and particularly devastating, regional occurrence consisted of earthquake-triggered slides on steep slopes covered with saturated residual soils; these slides were rapidly transformed into very fluid, high-velocity debris avalanches, which in turn changed into devastating debris flows that ran out into populated areas on valley bottoms.

Reviews in Engineering Geology

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Geological Society, London, Special Publications

DisasterNet: Causal Bayesian networks with normalizing flows for cascading hazards

Sudden-onset hazards like earthquakes often induce cascading secondary hazards (e.g., landslides, liquefaction, debris flows, etc.) and subsequent impacts (e.g., building and infrastructure damage) that cause catastrophic human and economic losses. Rapid and accurate estimates of these hazards and impacts are critical for timely and effective post-disaster responses. Emerging remote sensing techniques provide pre- and post-event satellite images for rapid hazard estimation. However, hazards and damage often co-occur or colocate with underlying complex cascading geophysical processes, making it challenging to directly differentiate multiple hazards and impacts from satellite imagery using existing single-hazard models. We introduce DisasterNet, a novel family of causal Bayesian networks to model processes that a major hazard triggers cascading hazards and impacts and further jointly induces signal changes in remotely sensed observations. We integrate normalizing flows to effectively model the highly complex causal dependencies in this cascading process. A triplet loss is further designed to leverage prior geophysical knowledge to enhance the identifiability of our highly expressive Bayesian networks. Moreover, a novel stochastic variational inference with normalizing flows is derived to jointly approximate posteriors of multiple unobserved hazards and impacts from noisy remote sensing observations. Integrating with the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, our framework is evaluated in recent global earthquake events. Evaluation results show that DisasterNet significantly improves multiple hazard and impact estimation compared to existing USGS products.

Conference Paper

Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 years of drought early warning science advances and partnerships promoting global food security

On a planet with more than 7 billion people, how do we identify the millions of drought-afflicted people who face a real threat of livelihood disruption or death without humanitarian assistance? Typically, these people are poor and heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture and livestock. Most live in Africa, Central America, or Southwest Asia. When the rains fail, incomes diminish while food prices increase, cutting off the poorest (most often women and children) from access to adequate nutrition. As seen in Ethiopia in 1984 and Somalia in 2011, food shortages can lead to famine. Yet these slow onset disasters also provide opportunities for effective intervention, as seen in Ethiopia in 2015 and Somalia in 2017. Since 1985, the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has been providing evidence-based guidance for effective humanitarian relief efforts. FEWS NET depends on a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) to help understand, monitor, model and predict food insecurity. Here we provide an overview of FEWS NET's DEWS using examples from recent climate extremes. While drought monitoring and prediction provides just one part of FEWS NET's monitoring system, it draws from many disciplines - remote sensing, climate prediction, agro-climatic monitoring, and hydrologic modeling. Here we describe FEWS NET's multi-agency multi-disciplinary DEWS and Food Security Outlooks. This DEWS uses diagnostic analyses to guide predictions. Mid-season droughts are monitored using multiple cutting-edge earth observing systems. Crop and hydrologic models can translate these observations into impacts. This information feeds into FEWS NET reports, helping to save lives by motivating and targeting timely humanitarian assistance.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

The NASA hydrological forecast system for food and water security applications

Many regions in Africa and the Middle East are vulnerable to drought and to water and food insecurity, motivating agency efforts such as the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to provide early warning of drought events in the region. Each year these warnings guide life-saving assistance that reaches millions of people. A new NASA multi-model, remote sensing-based hydrological forecasting and analysis system, NHyFAS, has been developed to support such efforts by improving the FEWS NET’s current early warning capabilities. NHyFAS derives its skill from two sources: (i) accurate initial conditions, as produced by an offline land modeling system through the application and/or assimilation of various satellite data (precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage); and (ii) meteorological forcing data during the forecast period as produced by a state-of-the-art ocean-land-atmosphere forecast system. The land modeling framework used is the Land Information System (LIS), which employs a suite of land surface models, allowing multi-model ensembles and multiple data assimilation strategies to better estimate land surface conditions. An evaluation of NHyFAS shows that its one-to-five month forecasts successfully capture known historic drought events. The system also benefits from strong collaboration with end-user partners in Africa and the Middle East, who provide insights on strategies to formulate and communicate early warning indicators to water and food security communities. The additional lead time provided by this system will increase the speed, accuracy and efficacy of humanitarian disaster relief, helping to save lives and livelihoods.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Assessing the vegetation condition impacts of the 2011 drought across the U.S. southern Great Plains using the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI)

The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of record-breaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the drought across the region corresponded well to the record warm temperatures and much-below-normal precipitation reported by the National Climatic Data Center and the sectoral drought impacts documented by the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). VegDRI values and maps also showed the evolution of the drought signal before the Las Conchas Fire (the largest fire in New Mexico’s history). Reports in the DIR indicated that the 2011 drought had major adverse impacts on most rangeland and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma, resulting in total direct losses of more than $12 billion associated with crop, livestock, and timber production. These severe impacts on vegetation were depicted by the VegDRI at subcounty, state, and regional levels. This study indicates that the VegDRI maps can be used with traditional drought indicators and other in situ measures to help producers and government officials with various management decisions, such as justifying disaster assistance, assessing fire risk, and identifying locations to move livestock for grazing.

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology