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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS1992

Winter habitat occurrence patterns of temperate migrant birds in Belize

We used mist nets and point counts to sample bird populations in 61 sites in Belize during January-March of 1987-1991. Sites were classified as forest, second growth, woody agricultural crops (citrus, mango, cacao, and cashew), or non-woody agricultural crops (rice and sugar cane). We evaluated patterns of occurrence of wintering temperate migrant bird species in these habitats. Mist net captures of 22 of 31 migrant species differed significantly among habitats. Of these, 13 species were captured more frequently in the agricultural habitats. American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla), Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia), and Magnolia Warbler (Dendroica magnolia) were among the species captured most frequently in woody agricultural habitats; captures of Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas), Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea), and Northern (lcterus galbula) and Orchard orioles (I. spur/anus) were highest in the non-woody agricultural sites. We relate these occurrence patterns to trends in breeding populations in North America. While count data provide a wide picture of winter habitat distribution of migrants, more intensive work is necessary to assess temporal and geographic variation of migrant bird use of agricultural habitats.

El Pitirre (Society of Caribbean Ornithology)↗
USGS2017

Importance of scale, land cover, and weather on the abundance of bird species in a managed forest

Climate change and habitat loss are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. While public lands have the potential to increase regional resilience of bird populations to these threats, long-term data are necessary to document species responses to changes in climate and habitat to better understand population vulnerabilities. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine the importance of stand-level characteristics, multi-scale land cover, and annual weather factors to the abundance of 61 bird species over a 20-year time frame in Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota, USA. Of the 61 species modeled, we were able to build final models with R-squared values that ranged from 26% to 69% for 37 species; the remaining 24 species models had issues with convergence or low explanatory power (R-squared < 20%). Models for the 37 species show that stand-level characteristics, land cover factors, and annual weather effects on species abundance were species-specific and varied within guilds. Forty-one percent of the final species models included stand-level characteristics, 92% included land cover variables at the 200 m scale, 51% included land cover variables at the 500 m scale, 46% included land cover variables at the 1000 m scale, and 38% included weather variables in best models. Three species models (8%) included significant weather and land cover interaction terms. Overall, models indicated that aboveground tree biomass and land cover variables drove changes in the majority of species. Of those species models including weather variables, more included annual variation in precipitation or drought than temperature. Annual weather variability was significantly more likely to impact abundance of species associated with deciduous forests and bird species that are considered climate sensitive. The long-term data and models we developed are particularly suited to informing science-based adaptive forest management plans that incorporate climate sensitivity, aim to conserve large areas of forest habitat, and maintain an historical mosaic of cover types for conserving a diverse and abundant avian assemblage.

Minnesota↗
USGS2002

Harlequin duck population recovery following the 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill: Progress, process and constraints

Following the 1989 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, we studied the status of recovery of harlequin duck Histrionicus histrionicus populations during 1995 to 1998. We evaluated potential constraints on full recovery, including (1) exposure to residual oil; (2) food limitation; and (3) intrinsic demographic limitations on population growth rates. In this paper, we synthesize the findings from our work and incorporate information from other harlequin duck research and monitoring programs to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the response of this species to the 'Exxon Valdez' spill. We conclude that harlequin duck populations had not fully recovered by 1998. Furthermore, adverse effects continued as many as 9 yr after the oil spill, in contrast to the conventional paradigm that oil spill effects on bird populations are short-lived. These conclusions are based on the findings that (1) elevated cytochrome P450 (CYP1A) induction on oiled areas indicated continued exposure to oil in 1998; (2) adult female winter survival was lower on oiled than unoiled areas during 1995 to 1998; (3) fall population surveys by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game indicated numerical declines in oiled areas during 1995 to 1997; and (4) densities on oiled areas in 1996 and 1997 were lower than expected using models that accounted for effects of habitat attributes. Based on hypothesized links between oil contamination and demography, we suggest that harlequin duck population recovery was constrained primarily by continued oil exposure. Full population recovery will also be delayed by the time necessary for intrinsic population growth to allow return to pre-spill numbers following cessation of residual oil spill effects. Although not all wildlife species were affected by the 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill, and some others may have recovered quickly from any effects, harlequin duck life history characteristics and benthic, nearshore feeding habits make them susceptible to both initial and long-term oil spill effects.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Harlequin duck ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) perspective: Harlequin duck population recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill: Progress, process, and constraints

Following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, we studied the status of recovery of harlequin duck ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) populations during 1995-1998. We evaluated potential constraints to full recovery, including (1) exposure to residual oil, (2) food limitation, and (3) intrinsic demographic limitations on population growth rates. In this paper, we synthesize the findings from our work and incorporate information from other harlequin duck research and monitoring programs to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the response of this species to the Exxon Valdez oil spill. We conclude that harlequin duck populations had not fully recovered by 1998. Furthermore, adverse effects continued as many as 9 years after the oil spill, in contrast to the conventional paradigm that oil spill effects on bird populations are short-lived. These conclusions are based on the findings that (1) elevated cytochrome P450 induction on oiled areas indicated continued exposure to oil in 1998, (2) adult female winter survival was lower on oiled than unoiled areas during 1995-1998, (3) fall population surveys by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game indicated numerical declines in oiled areas during 1995-1997, and (4) densities on oiled areas in 1996 and 1997 were lower than expected using models that accounted for effects of habitat attributes. Based on hypothesized links between oil contamination and demography, we suggest that harlequin duck population recovery was constrained primarily by continued oil exposure. Full population recovery also will be delayed by the time necessary for intrinsic population growth to allow return to pre-spill numbers following cessation of residual oil spill effects. Although not all wildlife species were affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and some others may have recovered quickly from any effects, harlequin duck life history characteristics and benthic, nearshore feeding habits make them susceptible to both initial and long-term oil spill effects.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay Studies: Scientific Solutions for a Healthy Bay and Watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the science agency for the Department of Interior (DOI), has the critical role of providing objective science to document and understand ecosystem change in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. The human population in the Bay watershed , which grew from 8.1 million in 1950 to almost 16 million in 2000, has resulted in degraded water quality, loss of habitat, and declines in fish and bird populations. USGS scientists are leaders in understanding cause and effect of human activities and natural changes on water quality and the health of the ecosystem. The USGS interacts with resource managers and policy makers to use the science to adapt approaches for implementation, and assess effectiveness of, management actions for ecosystem conservation, restoration, and sustainability. Since the mid-1980s, the USGS has been an active partner in the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) , a multi-agency partnership led by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, working to achieve the restoration goals set forth in the Chesapeake 2000 agreement . This agreement established over 100 restoration commitments to be addressed by 2010. In 2005, which was the mid-point of the agreement, there was growing concern at all levels of government and by the public that ecological conditions in the Bay and its watershed had not significantly improved. The slow rate of improvement, coupled with the projected impact of human-population increase in the Bay watershed (fig. 1) , implied that many desired ecological conditions will not be achieved by 2010. To address these challenges, the USGS wrote a new science plan for 2006-2011 , and is synthesizing key findings to highlight the accomplishments from science activities for 2000-2005.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2017

Long-term and widespread changes in agricultural practices influence ring-necked pheasant abundance in California

Declines in bird populations in agricultural regions of North America and Europe have been attributed to agricultural industrialization, increases in use of agrochemical application, and increased predation related to habitat modification. Based on count data compiled from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1974 to 2012, Christmas Bird Count (CBC) collected from 1914 to 2013, and hunter data from Annual Game Take Survey (AGTS) for years 1948–2010, ring-necked pheasants ( Phasianus colchicus ) in California have experienced substantial declines in agricultural environments. Using a modeling approach that integrates all three forms of survey data into a joint response abundance index, we found pheasant abundance was related to the amount of harvested and unharvested crop land, types of crops produced, amount of total pesticide applied, minimum temperature, precipitation, and numbers of avian competitors and predators. Specifically, major changes in agricultural practices over the last three decades were associated with declines in pheasant numbers and likely reflected widespread loss of habitat. For example, increases in cropland were associated with increased pheasant abundance during early years of study but this effect decreased through time, such that no association in recent years was evidenced. A post hoc analysis revealed that crops beneficial to pheasant abundance (e.g., barley) have declined substantially in recent decades and were replaced by less advantageous crops (e.g., nut trees). An additional analysis using a restricted data set (1990–2013) indicated recent negative impacts on pheasant numbers associated with land use practices were also associated with relatively high levels of pesticide application. Our results may provide valuable information for management policies aimed at reducing widespread declines in pheasant populations in California and may be applicable to other avian species within agricultural settings. Furthermore, this general analytical approach is not limited to pheasants and could be applied to other taxa for which multiple survey data sources exist.

California↗
USGS2021

Linking field and laboratory studies: Reproductive effects of perfluorinated substances on avian populations

Although both laboratory and field studies are needed to effectively assess effects and risk of contaminants to free-living organisms, the limitations of each must be understood. The objectives of this paper are to examine information on field studies of reproductive effects of perfluorinated substances (PFASs) on bird populations, discuss the differences among field studies, and then place those results in context with laboratory studies. Hypotheses to explain the divergences between field studies and between laboratory and field studies will be discussed. Those differences include mixture issues, misattribution of the mechanism or the specific PFAS causing impairments, as well as other possible reasons. Finally, suggestions to better link laboratory and field studies will be presented. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:690–696. Published 2021. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2010

Spatial dynamics of bar-headed geese migration in the context of H5N1

Virulent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) since 2005 have raised the question about the roles of migratory and wild birds in the transmission of HPAI. Despite increased monitoring, the role of wild waterfowl as the primary source of the highly pathogenic H5N1 has not been clearly established. The impact of outbreaks of HPAI among species of wild birds which are already endangered can nevertheless have devastating consequences for the local and non-local ecology where migratory species are established. Understanding the entangled dynamics of migration and the disease dynamics will be key to prevention and control measures for humans, migratory birds and poultry. Here, we present a spatial dynamic model of seasonal migration derived from first principles and linking the local dynamics during migratory stopovers to the larger scale migratory routes. We discuss the effect of repeated epizootic at specific migratory stopovers for bar-headed geese ( Anser indicus ). We find that repeated deadly outbreaks of H5N1 on stopovers during the autumn migration of bar-headed geese could lead to a larger reduction in the size of the equilibrium bird population compared with that obtained after repeated outbreaks during the spring migration. However, the opposite is true during the first few years of transition to such an equilibrium. The age-maturation process of juvenile birds which are more susceptible to H5N1 reinforces this result.

Journal of the Royal Society Interface↗
USGS2007

Influence of land use and climate on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole region of Canada

Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna. ?? 2007 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗
USGS1999

Impact of forest type and management strategy on avian densities in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

Avian territory densities were determined from 20 Breeding Bird Censuses in mature (>30 years) bottomland hardwood stand: and 18 Breeding Bird Censuses in young (6-9 years old) cottonwood (Populas deltoides) plantations in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Avian species richness, diversity, and territory density were greater (p < 0.01) in bottomland hardwood stands than in intensively-managed cottonwood stands but these parameters were not impacted by selective timber harvest within bottomland hardwood stands nor by method of regeneration within cottonwood plantations (p > 0.05). Even so, detrended correspondence analysis based on avian territory densities readily segregated forest types and silvicultural treatments. Timber harvest within bottomland hardwood stands resulted in a shift in bird communities toward those found in cottonwood stands by increasing the densities of early-successional species such as Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea), Yellow-breasted Chat (Icteria virens), and Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas). Conversely, regenerating cottonwood stands from root sprouts, rather than planting stem cuttings, resulted in a shift in bird communities toward those found in bottomland hardwood stands by increasing densities of species such as White-eyed Vireo (Vireo griseus) and Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). Tree species diversity, angular canopy cover, and midstory density were positively associated with bird species assemblages in bottomland hardwood stands, whereas vegetation density at ground level was positively associated with bird communities in cottonwood plantations. Conversion of agricultural fields to short-rotation cottonwood plantations results in increased breeding bird populations by adding up to 140 additional territories 40 ha-1. Even so, relative conservation values, derive, from indicator species analysis and Partners in Flight concern scores, suggest that mature bottomland hardwood forests are twice as 'valuable' for bird conservation as are cottonwood plantations.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2008

Protective efficacy of a recombinant subunit West Nile virus vaccine in domestic geese (Anser anser)

Introduction of the West Nile virus (WNV) to Hawai'i will undoubtedly devastate many populations of critically endangered avian species indigenous to Hawai'i. The protective efficacy of a protein-based WNV subunit vaccine formulated with adjuvant was evaluated in domestic geese as a surrogate species for the endangered Ne??ne??, the state bird of Hawai'i. Prevention of viremia following viral infection of vaccinated birds was used as the clinical endpoint of protection. ELISA and plaque reduction neutralization tests demonstrate that significant levels of vaccine antigen-specific antibody were produced in groups of birds vaccinated with 5 or 10 ??g of the WN-80E antigen formulated with ISA720 adjuvant. Moreover, after challenge with WNV, no viremia was detected in vaccinated birds, whereas viremia was detected up to 4 days after and virus was detected by oral swab for 6 days after infection among control groups. Safe and effective vaccination of managed or captive endangered bird populations will protect species with critically low numbers that could not survive the added mortality of introduced disease. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2022

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is an emerging disease threat to wild birds in North America

Prior to the emergence of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (Gs/GD) H5N1 influenza A virus, the long-held and well-supported paradigm was that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks were restricted to poultry, the result of cross-species transmission of precursor viruses from wild aquatic birds that subsequently gained pathogenicity in domestic birds. Therefore, management agencies typically adopted a prevention, control, and eradication strategy that included strict biosecurity for domestic bird production, isolation of infected and exposed flocks, and prompt depopulation. In most cases, this strategy has proved sufficient for eradicating HPAI. Since 2002, this paradigm has been challenged with many detections of viral descendants of the Gs/GD lineage among wild birds, most of which have been associated with sporadic mortality events. Since the emergence and evolution of the genetically distinct clade 2.3.4.4 Gs/GD lineage HPAI viruses in approximately 2010, there have been further increases in the occurrence of HPAI in wild birds and geographic spread through migratory bird movement. A prominent example is the introduction of clade 2.3.4.4 Gs/GD HPAI viruses from East Asia to North America via migratory birds in autumn 2014 that ultimately led to the largest outbreak of HPAI in the history of the United States. Given the apparent maintenance of Gs/GD lineage HPAI viruses in a global avian reservoir; bidirectional virus exchange between wild and domestic birds facilitating the continued adaptation of Gs/GD HPAI viruses in wild bird hosts; the current frequency of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds globally, and particularly in Eurasia where Gs/GD HPAI viruses may now be enzootic; and ongoing dispersal of AI viruses from East Asia to North America via migratory birds, HPAI now represents an emerging disease threat to North American wildlife. This recent paradigm shift implies that management of HPAI in domestic birds alone may no longer be sufficient to eradicate HPAI viruses from a given country or region. Rather, agencies managing wild birds and their habitats may consider the development or adoption of mitigation strategies to minimize introductions to poultry, to reduce negative impacts on wild bird populations, and to diminish adverse effects to stakeholders using wildlife resources. The main objective of this review is, therefore, to provide information that will assist wildlife managers in developing mitigation strategies or approaches for dealing with outbreaks of Gs/GD HPAI in wild birds in the form of preparedness, surveillance, research, communications, and targeted management actions. Resultant outbreak response plans and actions may represent meaningful steps of wildlife managers toward the use of collaborative and multi-jurisdictional One Health approaches when it comes to the detection, investigation, and mitigation of emerging viruses at the human-domestic animal-wildlife interface.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1997

Modelling heterogeneity in the recoveries of marked animal populations with covariates of individual animals, groups of animals or recovery time

A general framework is developed for modelling rates of survival and recovery of marked animal populations in terms of auxiliary information collected at the time of marking. The framework may be used to estimate differences in survival or recovery among individual animals, groups of animals, and recovery times. Analyses of the recoveries of tagged fish and banded bird populations are used to illustrate the specification and selection of various models.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗
USGS1992

Was disease involved in the decimation of Guam's avifauna?

Between 1982 and 1986, 402 (290 live, 112 dead) exotic, migrant or native resident birds on Guam were surveyed for disease-causing agents to determine the role of disease in the decline of native forest bird populations on Guam. Traumatic injury, primarily from collisions with motor vehicles and predation, was the most prevalent (46%) cause of death. Thirty-eight percent of the carcasses examined were in poor body condition largely as a result of inadequate nutrition in captive native birds and poultry and adipose exhaustion in errant migrants. A variety of commensal or opportunistic bacteria, including Salmonella spp., were cultured from 220 birds, and nothing remarkable was found in 15 fecal samples. Lastly, no haematozoans, the suspected cause for the decline of the Hawaiian avifauna, were observed in blood slides examined from 260 birds. Based on the results of the survey and other lines of evidence presented in the discussion, we concluded there were no data implicating disease in the decline of Guam's avifauna.

Guam↗
USGS2000

Roadside versus remote: Is the habitat sampled by the Breeding Bird Survey in Maryland representative of statewide conditions?

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has received criticism that the bird habitat sampled along the 24.5 mile long roadside transects may not be proportional to regional totals. If true, trends in bird populations recorded by the BBS may not be sensitive predictors of regional or continental change in songbird abundance. To test whether the approximately 60 BBS routes in Maryland representatively sample the state's habitat, a geographic information system (GIS) database was compiled of significant bird habitat identified from remotely sensed landcover and land-use information (e.g., Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortiumclassified Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, etc.). These GIS data layers were analyzed to determine the statewide acreage of identified habitats as well as the acreage in each of the major physiographic regions of Maryland. Regional and statewide totals were also extracted for the subsample of habitat within 30 m of the BBS transects. The results of the comparison of regional and statewide habitat totals with the BBS sample showed very low proportional difference for nearly all of the identified habitat parameters. For Maryland and perhaps other urbanizing states, the BBS provides an accurate sample of available songbird habitats.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

North American wintering mallards infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza show few signs of altered local or migratory movements

Avian influenza viruses pose a threat to wildlife and livestock health. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild birds and poultry in North America in late 2021 was the first such outbreak since 2015 and the largest outbreak in North America to date. Despite its prominence and economic impacts, we know relatively little about how HPAI spreads in wild bird populations. In January 2022, we captured 43 mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) in Tennessee, USA, 11 of which were actively infected with HPAI. These were the first confirmed detections of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in the Mississippi Flyway. We compared movement patterns of infected and uninfected birds and found no clear differences; infected birds moved just as much during winter, migrated slightly earlier, and migrated similar distances as uninfected birds. Infected mallards also contacted and shared space with uninfected birds while on their wintering grounds, suggesting ongoing transmission of the virus. We found no differences in body condition or survival rates between infected and uninfected birds. Together, these results show that HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b infection was unrelated to body condition or movement behavior in mallards infected at this location during winter; if these results are confirmed in other seasons and as HPAI H5N1 continues to evolve, they suggest that these birds could contribute to the maintenance and dispersal of HPAI in North America. Further research on more species across larger geographic areas and multiple seasons would help clarify potential impacts of HPAI on waterfowl and how this emerging disease spreads at continental scales, across species, and potentially between wildlife and domestic animals.

Tennessee↗
USGS2025

Avian influenza spillover into poultry: Environmental influences and biosecurity protections

With the continued spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), understanding the complex dynamics of virus transfer at the wild – agriculture interface is paramount. Spillover events (i.e., virus transfer from wild birds into poultry) are related to proximity to infected wild bird populations and environmental conditions. By accounting for such dynamics, we can take a combined approach to assess the impacts of biosecurity measures implemented at poultry farms while simultaneously accounting for their local risk levels. We implemented a Bayesian joint-likelihood logistic regression for the Continental U.S. comparing models of spatiotemporal risk according to land use, weather, and predicted waterfowl distributions followed by integrating a farm-level case-control questionnaire dataset focused on identifying trends in HPAI spillover risk associated with a farm's biosecurity practices. We found that estimates of waterfowl abundance, along with mean precipitation and temperature during winter, were most correlated with spatiotemporal HPAI risk. Additionally, we identified multiple biosecurity practices associated with reduced risk to HPAI, where the strongest relationships were related to litter decontamination treatments, vehicle wash stations, and avoiding shared dead-bird disposal sites with other farms. This model broadly guides surveillance of HPAI in wild and domestic populations, identifying when and where we are most likely to see increased instances of the virus while also providing insights into how poultry farms can better protect themselves from risk.

contiguous United States↗