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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Wildfire burn severity and stream chemistry influence aquatic invertebrate and riparian avian mercury exposure in forested ecosystems

Terrestrial soils in forested landscapes represent some of the largest mercury (Hg) reserves globally. Wildfire can alter the storage and distribution of terrestrial-bound Hg via reemission to the atmosphere or mobilization in watersheds where it may become available for methylation and uptake into food webs. Using data associated with the 2007 Moonlight and Antelope Fires in California, we examined the long-term direct effects of wildfire burn severity on the distribution and magnitude of Hg concentrations in riparian food webs. Additionally, we quantified the cross-ecosystem transfer of Hg from aquatic invertebrate to riparian bird communities; and assessed the influence of biogeochemical, landscape variables, and ecological factors on Hg concentrations in aquatic and terrestrial food webs. Benthic macroinvertebrate methylmercury (MeHg) and riparian bird blood total mercury (THg) concentrations varied by 710- and 760-fold, respectively, and Hg concentrations were highest in predators. We found inconsistent relationships between Hg concentrations across and within taxa and guilds in response to stream chemical parameters and burn severity. Macroinvertebrate scraper MeHg concentrations were influenced by dissolved organic carbon (DOC); however, that relationship was moderated by burn severity (as burn severity increased the effect of DOC declined). Omnivorous bird Hg concentrations declined with increasing burn severity. Overall, taxa more linked to in situ energetic pathways may be more responsive to the biogeochemical processes that influence MeHg cycling. Remarkably, 8 years post-fire, we still observed evidence of burn severity influencing Hg concentrations within riparian food webs, illustrating its overarching role in altering the storage and redistribution of Hg and influencing biogeochemical processes.

Ecotoxicology↗
USGS2016

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Context Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ), and white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas. Methods We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA. Results Interacting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility. Conclusions Understanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2024

Structural heterogeneity predicts ecological resistance and resilience to wildfire in arid shrublands

Context Dynamic feedbacks between physical structure and ecological function drive ecosystem productivity, resilience, and biodiversity maintenance. Detailed maps of canopy structure enable comprehensive evaluations of structure–function relationships. However, these relationships are scale-dependent, and identifying relevant spatial scales to link structure to function remains challenging. Objectives We identified optimal scales to relate structure heterogeneity to ecological resistance, measured as the impacts of wildfire on canopy structure, and ecological resilience, measured as native shrub recruitment. We further investigated whether structural heterogeneity can aid spatial predictions of shrub recruitment. Methods Using high-resolution imagery from unoccupied aerial systems (UAS), we mapped structural heterogeneity across ten semi-arid landscapes, undergoing a disturbance-mediated regime shift from native shrubland to dominance by invasive annual grasses. We then applied wavelet analysis to decompose structural heterogeneity into discrete scales and related these scales to ecological metrics of resilience and resistance. Results We found strong indicators of scale dependence in the tested relationships. Wildfire effects were most prominent at a single scale of structural heterogeneity (2.34 m), while the abundance of shrub recruits was sensitive to structural heterogeneity at a range of scales, from 0.07 – 2.34 m. Structural heterogeneity enabled out-of-site predictions of shrub recruitment (R 2 = 0.55). The best-performing predictive model included structural heterogeneity metrics across multiple scales. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that identifying structure–function relationships requires analyses that explicitly account for spatial scale. As high-resolution imagery enables spatially extensive maps of canopy heterogeneity, models for scale dependence will aid our understanding of resilience mechanisms in imperiled arid ecosystems.

Idaho↗
USGS2026

Adapting wildfire risk assessment for a Tribal landscape: Mount Baldy and the Fort Apache Reservation in Arizona

Context The White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation in Arizona manages their natural and cultural resources within a perpetually wildfire-risky environment. The Tribe’s values also extend beyond those of typical risk assessments to include the importance of cultural activities and sites, various recreational and revenue values, and culturally significant species. Objectives We worked with the Tribe to characterize a sample of these values and adapt them for use in a widely used risk assessment framework as part of an ongoing effort to improve wildfire mitigation and management with Tribes. Methods We used a three-factor experimental design to conduct a sensitivity analysis related to the treatment of values included in the risk assessment. It focused on (1) the inclusion of relative importance or not, (2) the inclusion of relative extent or not, and (3) absolute versus scaled net value change for each value. Results Our results demonstrate a pattern of risk related to the values expressed by the Tribe with a focus on the Mount Baldy landscape, but the contributions of individual values to an aggregate measure of risk vary. Conclusions Our assessments demonstrate an opportunity to incorporate Tribal values. Different depictions of risk can be used to accommodate diverse perspectives of decision-makers or managers, the values they are considering, and whether or not they are approaching risk in an emergency response or preparedness frame.

Arizona↗
USGS2013

Wildfire and landscape change

Wildfire is a worldwide phenomenon that is expected to increase in extent and severity in the future, due to fuel accumulations, shifting land management practices, and climate change. It immediately affects the landscape by removing vegetation, depositing ash, influencing water-repellent soil formation, and physically weathering boulders and bedrock. These changes typically lead to increased erosion through sheetwash, rilling, dry ravel, and increased mass movement in the form of floods, debris flow, rockfall, and landslides. These process changes bring about landform changes as hillslopes are lowered and stream channels aggrade or incise at increased rates. Furthermore, development of alluvial fans, debris fans, and talus cones are enhanced. The window of disturbance to the landscape caused by wildfire is typically on the order of three to four years, with some effects persisting up to 30 years.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

A fire-use decision model to improve the United States’ wildfire management and support climate change adaptation

The US faces multiple challenges in facilitating the safe, effective, and proactive use of fire as a landscape management tool. This intentional fire use exposes deeply ingrained communication challenges and distinct but overlapping strategies of prescribed fire, cultural burning, and managed wildfire. We argue for a new conceptual model that is organized around ecological conditions, capacity to act, and motivation to use fire and can integrate and expand intentional fire use as a tool. This result emerges from more considered collaboration and communication of values and needs to address the negative consequences of contemporary fire use. When applied as a communication and translation tool, there is potential to lower barriers to faster and more successful collaboration among stakeholders. Such improvements are a vital part of strategies to address climate adaptation, wildfire mitigation, and the well-being of ecosystems.

Cell Reports Sustainability↗
USGS2012

Mapped versus actual burned area within wildfire perimeters: Characterizing the unburned

For decades, wildfire studies have utilized fire occurrence as the primary data source for investigating the causes and effects of wildfire on the landscape. Fire occurrence data fall primarily into two categories: ignition points and perimeter polygons which are used to calculate a ‘burned area’ for a fire. However, understanding the relationships between climate and fire or between fire and its ecological effects requires an understanding of the burn heterogeneity across the landscape and the area within fire perimeters that remains unburned. This research characterizes unburned areas within fire perimeters, which provide ecological refugia and seed source for post-fire regeneration. We utilized differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) data to examine the frequency, extent, and spatial patterns of unburned area in three national parks across the western US (Glacier, Yosemite, and Yukon-Charley Rivers). We characterized unburned area within fire perimeters by fire size and severity, characterized distance to an unburned area across the burned portion of the fire, and investigated patch dynamics of unburned patches within the fire perimeter. From 1984 through 2009, the total area within the fire perimeters that was classified as unburned from dNBR was 37% for Yosemite, 17% for Glacier, and 14% for Yukon-Charley. Variation in unburned area between fires was highest in Yosemite and lowest in Yukon-Charley. The unburned proportion significantly decreased with increasing fire size and severity across all three parks. Unburned patch size increased with size of fire perimeter, but patches decreased in density. There were no temporal trends in unburned area found. These results raise questions about the validity of relationships found between external forcing agents, such as climate, and ‘burned area’ values derived solely from polygon fire perimeters.

Alaska, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015

Over the last several decades in forest and woodland ecosystems of the southwestern United States, wildfire size and severity have increased, thereby increasing the vulnerability of these systems to type conversions, invasive species, and other disturbances. A combination of land use history and climate change is widely thought to be contributing to the changing fire regimes. We examined climate-fire relationships in forest and woodland ecosystems from 1984 – 2015 in Arizona and New Mexico using 1) an expanded satellite-derived burn severity dataset that incorporates over one million additional burned hectares when compared to MTBS data, and 2) climate variables including temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Regional climate-fire relationships were assessed by correlating annual area burned, area burned at high and low severity, and percent high severity with fire season (May-August) and water-year (October-September) climate variables. We also analyzed relationships between climate and high-severity fire at the scale of the individual fires using a hurdle model. We found that increasing temperature and VPD and decreasing precipitation were associated with increasing area burned regionally, and that area burned at high severity had the strongest relationships with climate metrics. The relationship between climate and fire activity in the Southwest appears to be strengthening since 2000. VPD-fire correlations were consistently as strong as, or stronger than, temperature or precipitation variables alone, both regionally and at the scale of the individual fires. Notably, at the scale of the individual fires, temperature and precipitation were not significant predictors of fire activity. Thus, our results support the use of VPD as a more integrative climate metric to forecast fire activity. We suggest that the strong relationship between VPD and fire activity may be useful to assess the likelihood of high-severity fire occurrence through continued development of the high-severity fire threshold model we present. The link between increasing aridity and increasing wildfire activity suggests a future with more fire in Southwest forests and woodlands with projected warming, underscoring the urgency of restoration in dry forests to reduce the likelihood of uncharacteristic, large high-severity fires.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2008

Post-wildfire erosion response in two geologic terrains in the western USA

Volumes of eroded sediment after wildfires vary substantially throughout different geologic terrains across the western United States. These volumes are difficult to compare because they represent the response to rainstorms and runoff with different characteristics. However, by measuring the erosion response as the erodibility efficiency of water to detach and transport sediment on hillslopes and in channels, the erosion response from different geologic terrains can be compared. Specifically, the erodibility efficiency is the percentage of the total available stream power expended to detach, remobilize, or transport a mass of sediment. Erodibility efficiencies were calculated for the (i) initial detachment, and for the (ii) remobilization and transport of sediment on the hillslopes and in the channels after wildfire in two different geological terrains. The initial detachment efficiencies for the main channel and tributary channel in the granitic terrain were 10 ?? 9% and 5 ?? 4% and were similar to those for the volcanic terrain, which were 5 ?? 5% and 1 ?? 1%. No initial detachment efficiency could be measured for the hillslopes in the granitic terrain because hillslope measurements were started after the first major rainstorm. The initial detachment efficiency in the volcanic terrain was 1.3 ?? 0.41%. The average remobilization and transport efficiencies associated with flash floods in the channels also were similar in the granitic (0.18 ?? 0.57%) and volcanic (0.11 ?? 0.41%) terrains. On the hillslope the remobilization and transport efficiency was greater in the volcanic terrain (2.4%) than in the granitic terrain (0.65%). However, this may reflect the reduced sediment availability after the first major rainstorm (30-min maximum rainfall intensity ??? 90??mm h- 1) in the granitic terrain, while easily erodible fine colluvium remained on the hillslope after the first rainstorm (30-min maximum rainfall intensity = 7.2??mm h- 1) in the volcanic terrain. The erosion response in channels and on hillslopes of the granitic and volcanic terrains was similar when compared using erodibility efficiencies.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2018

The evolution of a colluvial hollow to a fluvial channel with periodic steps following two transformational disturbances: A wildfire and a historic flood

The transition of a colluvial hollow to a fluvial channel with discrete steps was observed after two landscape-scale disturbances. The first disturbance, a high-severity wildfire, changed the catchment hydrology to favor overland flow, which incised a colluvial hollow, creating a channel in the same location. This incised channel became armored with cobbles and boulders following repeated post-wildfire overland flow events. Three years after the fire, a record rainstorm produced regional flooding and generated sufficient fluvial erosion and sorting to produce a fluvial channel with periodically spaced steps. An analysis of the step spacing shows that after the flood, newly formed steps retained a similar spacing to the topographic roughness spacing in the original colluvial hollow (prior to channelization). This suggests that despite a distinct change in channel form roughness and bedform morphology, the endogenous roughness periodicity was conserved. Variations in sediment erodibility helped to create the emergent steps as the largest particles ( >D84) remained immobile, becoming step features, and downstream soil was easily winnowed away.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2024

Use of Doppler velocity radars to monitor and predict debris and flood wave velocities and travel times in post-wildfire basins

The magnitude and timing of extreme events such as debris and floodflows (collectively referred to as floodflows) in post-wildfire basins are difficult to measure and are even more difficult to predict. To address this challenge, a sensor ensemble consisting of noncontact, ground-based (near-field), Doppler velocity (velocity) and pulsed (stage or gage height) radars, rain gages, and a redundant radio communication network was leveraged to monitor flood wave velocities, to validate travel times, and to compliment observations from NEXRAD weather radar. The sensor ensemble (DEbris and Floodflow Early warNing System, DEFENS) was deployed in Waldo Canyon, Pike National Forest, Colorado, USA, which was burned entirely (100 percent burned) by the Waldo Canyon fire during the summer of 2012 ( MTBS, 2020 ). Surface velocity, stage, and precipitation time series collected during the DEFENS deployment on 10 August 2015 were used to monitor and predict flood wave velocities and travel times as a function of stream discharge (discharge; streamflow). The 10 August 2015 event exhibited spatial and temporal variations in rainfall intensity and duration that resulted in a discharge equal to 5.01 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s). Discharge was estimated post-event using a slope-conveyance indirect discharge method and was verified using velocity radars and the probability concept algorithm. Mean flood wave velocities – represented by the kinematic celerity ( c k = 2.619 m e t e r s p e r s e c o n d , m / s ± 0.556 p e r c e n t "> 𝑐 𝑘 = 2.619 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑, m/s ± 0.556 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and dynamic celerity ( c d = 3.533 m / s ± 0.181 p e r c e n t a n d t h e i r u n c e r t a i n t i e s "> 𝑐 𝑑 = 3.533 m/s ± 0.181 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡) and their uncertainties were computed. L-moments were computed to establish probability density functions (PDFs) and associated statistics for each of the at-a-section hydraulic parameters to serve as a workflow for implementing alert networks in hydrologically similar basins that lack data. Measured flood wave velocities and travel times agreed well with predicted values. Absolute percent differences between predicted and measured flood wave velocities ranged from 1.6 percent to 49 percent and varied with water slope, hydraulic radius, and depth. The kinematic celerity was a better predictor for steep slopes and wide flood plains associated with the Upper Waldo and Middle Waldo radar streamgages; whereas, the dynamic celerity was a better surrogate for shallow slopes and incised channels such as the Lower Waldo radar streamgage. The method demonstrates the potential extensibility of a post-wildfire warning system by (1) leveraging multiple systems (i.e., weather radar, near-field velocity and stage radars, and rain gages) for accurate and timely warnings of debris and floodflows, (2) establishing an order of operations to site, install, and operate near-field radars and conventional rain gages to record floodflows, forecast travel times, and document geomorphic change in this basin and hydrologically similar basins that lack data, and (3) communicating data operationally with the Colorado Department of Transportation engineering staff, National Weather Service forecasters, and emergency managers.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Using multi-date satellite imagery to monitor invasive grass species distribution in post-wildfire landscapes: An iterative, adaptable approach that employs open-source data and software

Among the most pressing concerns of land managers in post-wildfire landscapes are the establishment and spread of invasive species. Land managers need accurate maps of invasive species cover for targeted management post-disturbance that are easily transferable across space and time. In this study, we sought to develop an iterative, replicable methodology based on limited invasive species occurrence data, freely available remotely sensed data, and open source software to predict the distribution of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) in a post-wildfire landscape. We developed four species distribution models using eight spectral indices derived from five months of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data in 2014. These months corresponded to both cheatgrass growing period and time of field data collection in the study area. The four models were improved using an iterative approach in which a threshold for cover was established, and all models had high sensitivity values when tested on an independent dataset. We also quantified the area at highest risk for invasion in future seasons given 2014 distribution, topographic covariates, and seed dispersal limitations. These models demonstrate the effectiveness of using derived multi-date spectral indices as proxies for species occurrence on the landscape, the importance of selecting thresholds for invasive species cover to evaluate ecological risk in species distribution models, and the applicability of Landsat 8 OLI and the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling for targeted invasive species management.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗
USGS2017

Spatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout

We studied how drought and an associated stressor, wildfire, influenced stream flow permanence and thermal regimes in a Great Basin stream network. We quantified these responses by collecting information with a spatially extensive network of data loggers. To understand the effects of wildfire specifically, we used data from 4 additional sites that were installed prior to a 2012 fire that burned nearly the entire watershed. Within the sampled network 73 reaches were classified as perennial, yet only 51 contained surface water during logger installation in 2014. Among the sites with pre-fire temperature data, we observed 2–4 °C increases in maximum daily stream temperature relative to an unburned control in the month following the fire; effects (elevated up to 6.6 °C) appeared to persist for at least one year. When observed August mean temperatures in 2015 (the peak of regionally severe drought) were compared to those predicted by a regional stream temperature model, we observed deviations of −2.1°-3.5°. The model under-predicted and over-predicted August mean by > 1 °C in 54% and 10% of sites, respectively, and deviance from predicted was negatively associated with elevation. Combined drought and post-fire conditions appeared to greatly restrict thermally-suitable habitat for Lahontan cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi ).

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Post-wildfire hydrologic recovery in Mediterranean climates: A systematic review and case study to identify current knowledge and opportunities

Post-fire hydrologic research typically focuses on the first few years after a wildfire , leading to substantial uncertainty regarding the longevity of impacts. The time needed for hydrologic function to return to pre-fire conditions is critical information for post-fire land and water management decisions. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climates , where water is scarce and in high demand, and the severity and area burned by wildfires are increasing. In part, uncertainty about hydrologic recovery is due to lack of a consistent definition or interpretation of what constitutes “recovery.” Here, we systematically reviewed empirical studies from Mediterranean climates with at least three years of post-fire hydrologic data with the objectives of (a) assessing the recovery period, (b) identifying a definition of post-fire hydrologic recovery, (c) demonstrating a simple analytical approach to aid in assessment of recovery, and (d) outlining research needs and opportunities to better quantify post-fire recovery. We assessed the hydrologic effects reported in 38 sites that were monitored for 3–20 years. Eighteen sites were considered recovered within seven years; however, the recovery time was inconsistent across sites and was not related to location, response variable, or study design. The likelihood of recovery within the study period also decreased with increasing proportion of the watershed area burned. Importantly, we have also proposed a standardized definition and an approach to quantifying hydrologic recovery that may facilitate cross-study comparisons and a deeper understanding of recovery. Specifically, we propose hydrologic recovery has occurred when a specific post-fire hydrologic function or condition of interest returns to the 95% confidence interval of the pre-fire condition. In support of this definition, we have demonstrated applying this simple approach to assess recovery and presented future research topics to improve our understanding of long-term post-fire catchment responses. In addition to the need for more studies that quantify hydrologic responses farther into the post-fire period, understanding post-fire changes in soil structural and hydraulic properties through time will improve our mechanistic understanding of post-fire hydrologic responses and recovery.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2013

The 2003 and 2007 wildfires in southern California

Although many residents of southern California have long recognised that wildfires in the region are an ongoing, constant risk to lives and property, the enormity of the regional fire hazard caught the world’s attention during the southern California firestorms of 2003 (Figure 5.1). Beginning on 21 October, a series of fourteen wildfires broke out across the five-county region under severe Santa Ana winds, and within two weeks, more than 300,000 ha had burned (Keeley et al., 2004). The event was one of the costliest in the state’s history, with more than 3,600 homes damaged or destroyed and twenty-four fatalities. Suppression costs for the 12,000 firefighters have been estimated at US$120 million, and the total response and damage cost has been estimated at more than US$3 billion (COES, 2004). [Excerpt]

California↗
USGS2007

Suspended sediment transport in an ephemeral stream following wildfire

We examine the impacts of a stand-clearing wildfire on the characteristics and magnitude of suspended sediment transport in ephemeral streams draining the burn area. We report the results of a monitoring program that includes 2 years of data prior to the Cerro Grande fire in New Mexico, and 3 years of postfire data. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) increased by about 2 orders of magnitude following the fire, and the proportion of silt and clay increased from 50% to 80%. For a given flow event, SSC is highest at the flood bore and decreases monotonically with time, a pattern evident in every flood sampled both before and after the fire. We propose that the accumulation of flow and wash load at the flow front is an inherent characteristic of ephemeral stream flows, due to amplified momentum losses at the flood bore. We present a new model for computing suspended sediment transport in ephemeral streams (in the presence or absence of wildfire) by relating SSC to the time following the arrival of the flood bore, rather than to instantaneous discharge. Using this model and a rainfall history, we estimate that in the 3 years following the fire, floods transported in suspension a mass equivalent to about 3 mm of landscape lowering across the burn area, 20% of this following a single rainstorm. We test the model by computing fine sediment delivery to a small reservoir in an adjacent watershed, where we have a detailed record of postfire sedimentation based on repeat surveys. Systematic discrepancies between modeled and measured sedimentation rates in the reservoir suggest rapid reductions in suspended sediment delivery in the first several years after the fire.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2020

Wildfire-initiated talik development exceeds current thaw projections: Observations and models from Alaska's continuous permafrost zone

As the Arctic warms and wildfire occurrence increases, talik formation in permafrost regions is projected to expand and affect the cycling of water and carbon. Yet, few unified field and modeling studies have examined this process in detail, particularly in areas of continuous permafrost. We address this gap by presenting multimethod, multiseasonal geophysical measurements of permafrost and liquid‐water content that reveal substantial talik development in response to recent wildfire in continuous permafrost of boreal Alaska. Results from observation‐based cryohydrogeologic model simulations suggest that predisturbance subsurface conditions are key factors influencing thaw response to fire disturbance and air temperature warming. Our high‐resolution integrated study illustrates enhanced vulnerability of boreal continuous permafrost, with observed talik formation that exceeds coarse‐scale model projections by ~100 years even under the most extreme future emissions scenario. Results raise important scaling questions for representing extreme permafrost thaw phenomena of growing widespread importance in large‐scale predictive models.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event

Hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows, which are common in the steep terrain of the western United States, has focused on the susceptibility of upstream basins to generate debris flows. However, reducing public exposure to this hazard also requires an assessment of hazards in downstream areas that might be inundated during debris flow runout. Debris flow runout models are widely available, but their application to hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows has not been extensively tested. Necessary inputs to these models include the total volume of the mobilized flow, flow properties (either inherent material properties or calibration coefficients), and site topography. Estimates of volume are possible in post-event (“back calculation”) studies, yet before an event, volume is an uncertain quantity. We simulated debris flow runout for the well-constrained 9 January 2018 Montecito event using three models (RAMMS, FLO2D, and D-Claw) to determine the relative importance of volume and flow properties. We broke the impacted area into three domains, and for each model-domain combination, we performed a numerical sampling study in which volume and flow properties varied within a wide, but plausible range. We assessed model performance based on inundation patterns and peak flow depths. We found all models could simulate the event with comparable results. Simulation performance was most sensitive to flow volume and less sensitive to flow properties. Our results emphasize the importance of reducing uncertainty in pre-event estimates of flow volume for hazard assessment.

California↗